The Good, The Bad, and the Uggla
by VolsnCards5 on Aug 17, 2008 1:55 PM EDT
83 comments
Word out of Florida, according to mlbtraderumors.com and SI, is that the Marlins are considering yet another firesale. Since a lot of their players are arby eligible this offseason, they will either have to trade them away, or double their payroll(which we all know they won't do). One of the names mentioned as being a trade candidate is Dan Uggla, hero of the All-Star Game.
I'm not the type of person that knows sabermetric stats such as VORP and win shares so I really can't speak to all of that in-depth stuff. What I do know is that Uggla, even if he doesn't have the same season at the plate next year as he did this year, would be quite the offensive upgrade over our current crop of 2-baggers. My question to all of you faithful VEB readers(especially those of you who are good with said statistics)is: Should the Cardinals consider trading some prospects in the offseason for Mr. Uggla? He will be cheaper than Orlando Hudson methinks, so the Cards would save some money(I am assuming Mo will do everything in his power to improve our MI situation, maybe I am wrong). Are his deficiencies at the keystone such that his bat will never make up for his iron glove? What do you guys think he will get in arbitration? And lastly, but most importantly, who from the farm system would you be willing to give up to get him?
I feel like if we really wanted him, we should go no higher than Jay and Mortensen...or some combination like that. That may even be too much. The Marlins know how to drive up the price, but I gotta think the Cards would have the upperhand because the Marlins seem to really be looking to ship him out.
Thoughts?
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Yeah, I would kill to have a MI who could hit.
Even though he is known for his iron glove as well as he is for his amazing bat, I think he would be an amazing upgrade over Kennedy. Although, if we were to get Uggla, we would probably release Kennedy and have to eat the rest of his salary.
I know that the fish need a catcher for the future. Why not include Anderson in the trade? It’s not like he has a spot on this team, unless he pulls a Biggio and plays 2B. I don’t think he will be cheaper than O-Dog money-wise, and he will also cost prospects, but he is much more of a valuable asset than Hudson is. I think maybe trade Mortensen, Anderson, and a B-Level prospect at most.
The NL Central Blog.com
by dunc4life on Aug 17, 2008 2:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not an Uggla fan
Personally, I think he’s tremendously over-rated simply because he hits home runs. (Btw, I wouldn’t call a career line of .263,.338, .494 ..832 amazing).
Plus, i think we all got a real good look this past series at where his baseball iq might lie. Granted I’m looking at a 4 game series, but I think he made a mental mistake in almost every game (mostly on the basepaths) that often had a direct impact on his team.
Also, I’m not sure how you can say he’ll be a much more valuable asset than Hudson. Hudson does a ton of things right. Uggla hits for power and that’s about it. Oh, and Uggla seems to stay healthy which Hudson isn’t right now.
But that’s just my opinion on the guy. Oh and I have no idea how much he’d make in arbitration, although home runs always make a guys price tag go up.
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
by Tackle Box on Aug 17, 2008 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're selling him short...
Keep in mind that Uggla is a second baseman who bops like mad, and second basemen usually aren’t boppers. He is a legitimate force with the bat in his hands, with only Chase Utley as a truly comparable hitter. He ranks second in VORP amongst NL 2nd basemen, ahead of Hudson. He’s second in EQA amongst NL 2nd basemen, also ahead of Hudson. He’s also ahead of Hudson in overall win shares, OOZ, and RZR (stats grabbed from Hardball Times). He clearly doesn’t just hit home runs, and is outperforming Hudson this year in most major categories save OBP.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 17, 2008 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, that's definately possible
I just fear he’s the type of player that looks a lot more attractive on another team when you don’t have to watch him play every day. But, you could be right. I guess ultimately it comes down to what his cost would be.
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
by Tackle Box on Aug 17, 2008 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
Cost is the biggest issue in this case. If the names “Colby,” “Rasmus,” “Jess,” “Todd,” “Jaime,” or “Garcia” are introduced, and I’d imagine they would, then forget about it. I think those guys will all be solid, cheap players for the big club for several years a piece. Now, anyone else…I like Mortensen, but think that Garcia and Todd are both more promising. Same with Boggs, who I don’t see being more than a 4/5 guy. Jay is having a decent run right now, but he’s behind Ank, Rasmus, Ludwick, Mather, and hell Duncan if he ever arises from hell. His best role right now is as a part in a trade. Motte and Perez are clearly promising as well, but I’m of the opinion that good bullpen arms are easier to find than starting pitchers or good position players. So, as you said, it all comes down to what it would take to bring Uggla aboard.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 17, 2008 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's a great idea
but I doubt it will happen. For whatever reason, this club cannot understand sunk cost. They seem totally unwilling to jettison their multi-year contract mistakes (Encarnacion, Pinata, Kennedy, Looper). So the upgrade is probably only happening at shortstop. Now Hanley Ramirez is a completely different kettle of fish…
by Red in Chicago on Aug 18, 2008 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
how exactly is Looper a multi-year contract mistake?
$5.5M for a pretty damn dependable starting pitcher is a bargain.
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
by Tackle Box on Aug 18, 2008 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only way the Looper contract could be called a mistake
would be if he had remained a middle reliever. At the time they did overpay for a marginal setup guy, but he is certainly a good value as a slightly above average SP. Now last year is another story.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Aug 18, 2008 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hudson is a much better defensive player
OOZ and RZR don’t measure some key things for a 2B — such as turning the double play (very important skill) and arm strength.
He is a bopper, but I’d rather have Hudson if they cost the same (and Hudson will cost draft picks, so the prospects given up for both is kinda moot considering how well the Cardinals have been drafting lately). O-Dog is a plus defender who gets on base, has a little bit of pop, and adds some much needed speed to the lineup in the middle infield.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 18, 2008 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
is it known that ariz will offer hudson arbitration?
by rlgosnell on Aug 18, 2008 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why wouldn't they
Hudson already said he plans on testing the FA water
by FlimtotheFlam on Aug 18, 2008 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I live in Miami
and get to see the Fish play everyday. I can tell you that Marlins’ fans are eager to get rid of him. It’s great that he can hit the long ball more often than most second basemen, but that’s about the only good thing about his game. In my opinion, his defensive shortcomings and poor base running far out way his home run swing.
I don’t necessarily dislike the guy, he just isn’t a guy that I’m eager to put in a Cardinal uniform.
by mikeonthecards on Aug 17, 2008 6:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
See my post above...
…There’s more to his game then just boppage. The dude is the second best offensive second baseman in the NL, and does it in a pitcher’s park. He has the highest GPA (gross production average, which Hardball Times uses as a “more accurate OPS”) amongst 2nd basemen, the second-highest VORP, the second-highest EQA, he sees more pitches/PA then Utley, hell he’d have the most home runs if he’d had as many PA’s as Utley. Yes, his defensive game is uggly (yes, that was done on purpose), and yes he’s probably uggly to watch daily, but when he holds a bat in his hands he’s absolutely lethal. Furthermore, despite his defensive issues, he’s still second amongst all NL second basemen in win shares. That’s how good this guy is with the bat, compared to his positional peers.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 17, 2008 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll take Utley
over him every day and twice on Sunday, regardless of what the numbers say. Utley is the best defensive second baseman in the National League, gets on base a lot more, and will hit as many homers as Uggla every year — plus, he’s bats from the left side.
In relation to his peers he’s great, until you look at who his peers are. Hell, the Cardinals rank near the middle of the NL pack with the players they’ve started at second base this year. There are very few good second baseman in the NL this season — and some of the good ones are having really ugly years (like Rickie Weeks).
Sure, he’s a good player, but I’ll take Brandon Phillips, Orlando Hudson, and Chase Utley over him pretty much every time.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 18, 2008 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, yeah...
…of course I’d rather have Utley then Uggla too, but that ain’t happening. My previous points were intended to show that Uggla is a pretty good hitter, and more than just a home run guy. His bat would stick at most positions, considering he ranks in the top-20 in all the NL in OPS and has a higher EQA then anyone on the Cards not named Albert or Ludwick (couldn’t say just Ryan, considering High-Socks McShoulder-Bite). He would be an offensive addition to the Cards, and not just b/c he hits home runs. Furthermore, while a poor fielder, he would make up for it when you consider what the Cards are currently running out there at second base. Put another way, he’d be a better package then what the Cards already have, it just depends on what it would take to get him, which is the question at hand here. That was the point I was trying to make.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 18, 2008 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
my point
was to say that he’s not the best option out there, will cost much more than the other good option this offseason (Hudson) in terms of prospects, and will incite a bidding war if he is indeed on the block. My eyes are set on signing Hudson to a 3-4 year deal for around $10-$12M per, and then looking to trade some prospects for a veteran SS or a good SS prospect who is ready to get his feet wet at the big league level. I don’t see the team going the DFA route with Kennedy, which is too bad considering the roster spot he takes up could be used on a decent player and not one that’s consistently below average. I would guess we’re stuck carrying four infielders next year again if we make the above moves, unless Miles decides to try and cash in on his career year I’m sure that Tony will have to bring him back for another go ’round in 2009.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 19, 2008 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't believe my eyes
Are you really talking about somewhere in the neighborhood of $30M-$48M for Orlando Hudson? The same Orlando Hudson who has put up road OPSes of .737, .738, and .720 the past three years? The same Orlando Hudson who will be 31 next year and coming off a broken wrist? I think this might be the single most preposterous potential acquisition I have seen proposed in quite some time. He’s no better than Aaron Miles and I am not a Miles fan.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Aug 19, 2008 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No better than Miles?
Please…that is easily disprovable:
*Miles career OPS+: 76
*Hudson career OPS+: 99
*Miles career OBP: .327
*Hudson career OBP: .348
I don’t have the RZR and OOZ numbers for Hudson, but I’ll put some money that he’s a whole hell of a lot better than Aaron Miles. Miles is having a career year this year and he still isn’t topping Hudson’s career average OPS+. That assertion is ridiculous.
I’m not saying that we pay him that, but I think that’s what he’s going to be looking for. I’d much rather pay him around what Carlos Guillen is making, who’s also his top comp on baseball-reference, which is around $5M per year. I think he’s going to do better than that however, considering the market for quality second sackers is large with few quality FA out there to fill it after this season. He’s making $3.7M this year, and rumor has it the D-Backs offered him a 4-5 year deal worth an average of $8 million a season.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 20, 2008 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What is really ridiculous is the continuing tendency
on this board to identify “must have” players who just happen to play in the best hitters parks in the league. I stand by my original statement that Hudson’s paltry road OPSes the last three years and his broken wrist make him an exceedingly poor target to move into one of the top pitchers parks in baseball. For this season, Aaron Miles is a better offensive player than Hudson’s road performance.
Now you did say, “My eyes are set on signing Hudson to a 3-4 year deal for around $10-$12M per,” did you not? That is a ludicrous statement and it takes a lot of balls on your part to even argue that.
I don’t care what Hudson’s career numbers are playing in a park that is routinely ranked as the second best hitters parks in baseball and it would be foolish to pay him the kind of money you mention. Hell, I wouldn’t give him four years at half what you suggest.
BTW, Hudson’s RZR is .784 which is worse than Miles and makes him the worst-rated 2B in the NL among “qualified” players. When I searched at THT I couldn’t even find him at first because it only displays the top 50 at the position.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Aug 20, 2008 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
first, it’s
My eyes are set on signing Hudson to a 3-4 year deal for around $10-$12M per
then, when someone points out how crippling that deal would be, you say:
I’m not saying that we pay him that, but I think that’s what he’s going to be looking for
i never can keep up with what you’re actually saying, fourstick! suddenly, i’m having lighting stanchion flashbacks..
"so if you can’t understand what someone else is saying why don’t you just shut up about it instead of being a jerk-off?"
wordiness is next to godliness
by baw on Aug 23, 2008 3:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Anderson idea is an interesting one
The reasoning most of us don’t want to trade him is because a catcher who can hit .300 is a commodity…well for the cardinals that commodity is in his trade value…don’t look now, but we have a catcher who can hit .300, and he is best defensive catcher in baseball
what i am trying to say is that we really don’t have a place for anderson unless he changes positions, which if we were gonna do, we should have made the change this year…anderson’s value to us is as a trade chip…we can’t keep in AAA all of next year, eventually we are either going to have to call him up, or trade him…and with molina under contract and offering the same offensive abilities with better defense, we have to consider trading anderson in the right value deal
or we could move him to second base
by VolsnCards5 on Aug 17, 2008 6:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
though especially on the bit about moving him to 2nd (anderson), I just saw biggio’s number being retired (C move to 2nd). I must admit I don’t know Anderson’s body type or speed or pure athletic ability. Is this something to be talked about?
by Yadi on Aug 18, 2008 2:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Throw your vegetables now!
I think it would be a big mistake to trade Anderson this soon. Let him prove he can hit MLB pitching and his value goes up. Even though Yadi has been improving he still provides pretty meager production against RHPs with his .682 OPS. I would be interested in exploring Yadi’s trade value (throw vegetables now) to see if he could be sold high. He would have to bring a pretty significant haul, but I would like to know his value.
The only way I would trade Anderson right now would be if he brought a stud MI prospect.
I think it would be great to see Anderson replace pornstache and get about 200 ABs against RHPs.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Aug 18, 2008 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anderson is 6'1 - i dont see him playing 2B ever
and he isnt exactly killing AAA pitching (especially RHP) and has still yet to show real pop with his bat. I don’t think there’s anything at all wrong with keeping him at Memphis all of next year and the bulk of 2010. By then Yadi will need a competent backup and we can work Anderson in to keep Yadi fresh for another 5 years. Anderson is only 22 so keeping in the minors a little longer at a position when players notoriously develop gradually is not a big deal to me. Plus he can learn to play 1B some and make himself more valuable that way. Or we can trade him when the price is right – if Boston wants to give us Buchholz for him that’s fine. Otherwise lets see what happens.
by rlgosnell on Aug 18, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This may not be the best reasoning
But if we buy stock in Uggla and his above average bat, we may be able to justify having a poor-hitting, good fielding shortstop, a fairly available commodity to the cards recently (see: Izturis). it seems like the main complaint this year is that we have to poor hitting MI, so one good bat and one good glove might not be a bad combo (assuming Uggla really does have a good enough bat)
by soccerfreak on Aug 17, 2008 7:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
umm...
good enough bat compared to who? Albert Pujols? Then no his bat sucks. compared to Adam Kennedy? Ok then he’s pretty damn good. This is an all-star 2B, I don’t think his bat is in question at all. Outside of Chase Utley and Ian Kinsler he’s the best offensive 2B in the league, production-wise.
"Ding-dong the wicked witch is dead!" - Wayne Hagin after the cardinals snapped a losing streak
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Aug 18, 2008 4:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you want Uggla..
Start by looking at Rasmus to leave, and if not him, at least three of Garcia, Anderson, Todd, etc.
If you want the 2nd best 2B in baseball, you gotta pay the price.
by KeepOnRolen on Aug 17, 2008 9:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
IMO 2nd best 2B is Kinsler (utley's D makes him #1 imo)
Uggla is probably 4th or 5th once defense is considered (hudson, possibly roberts). He’d fall another couple of places if you consider SS’s as “2B”.
"..and that, my liege, is how we know the Earth to be banana shaped." -Sir Belvedere
by SleepyCA on Aug 17, 2008 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
phillips is surprisingly bad
He is a tremendous defender, and he hits a lot of home runs, so he would be an improvement over what we have, but he doesn’t get on base well enough to put himself into the league of guys like kinsler, Uggla and Utley. Phillips has a career-high OPS+ of 105, and he’s at 100 this year- with a career OPS+ of 88- Aaron Miles has an OPS+ of 95 this year*.
Uggla, Kinsler and Utley are in the 130’s, roberts is in the 120’s. Phillips isn’t in their league.
*(yes, Virginia, Aaron Miles is out-OPS+’ing miguel tejada- lol).
"..and that, my liege, is how we know the Earth to be banana shaped." -Sir Belvedere
by SleepyCA on Aug 18, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Love the idea...
mainly because I’m SO sick of dealing with Kennedy. That had to be the deal that got Jocketty canned. Yuck. Anyway, I’d love to see Uggla and Felipe Lopez up the middle next year. I think Lopez can handle short as well as Izzy defensively and he has a stronger bat. Maybe even save Lopez for second and re-sign Izzy for short. Anything to get Kennedy out of the picture. Please.
by gsjefferies93 on Aug 18, 2008 12:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Izzy for short?
I would rather let him retire, actually. I would think with his arthritic hip he would have a hard time playing middle infield. He can barely throw a baseball off the mound without wincing.
by Red in Chicago on Aug 18, 2008 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think...
there’s any chance that he hurts us on defense as much as he helps us on offense.
That being said, I see absolutly no chance of this happening. I think the MIF will be significantly improved next year, but I simply cant envision the redbirds having a 25 homer 90 RBI second basemen.
"Ding-dong the wicked witch is dead!" - Wayne Hagin after the cardinals snapped a losing streak
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Aug 18, 2008 4:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If they did...
They could possibly have 7 spots in the order (4 OF, 1B, 2B, 3B) put up 25/75 lines. Wow!
by stlfan on Aug 18, 2008 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't agree
that the Cardinals need to upgrade second base to that extreme. I think they would be a lot better off trying to add a “table setter” than a “base clearer”. We have plenty of the latter (Pujols, Glaus, Ankiel, Ludwick). We’ve all seen what happened to Uggla in a pressure situation (and really the All Star Game isn’t supposed to be), and if we make the playoffs with him, it seems to reason that he wouldn’t perform as well as he typically does. He hit .190 last month, and he’s hitting .193 this month with a .566 OPS so far, just when the pressure is on for the Fish to catch the Mets.
by Turkatron on Aug 18, 2008 9:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
A guy like Uggla would only add to the streakiness of the current lineup. If he were a Cardinal today he would be leading the team in stirkeouts, be a worse defensive 2B than Aaron Miles, and his only above average skill is to hit the ball out of the park. I would rather have a table setter type as well, not sure who that is, though. FWIW, he has been abysmal this year (.623 OPS) vs. LHPs. Previously, he has hit them well, so maybe that is not an issue. His defensive shortcomings would be magnified with our ground ball oriented staff. I mean, his range factor is substantially below Jeff Kent’s.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Aug 18, 2008 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Worse fielder then Miles?
Well, if you put stock in RZR he has Miles beat there (.797 to .792) by a hair. Not a huge difference, but honestly they’re not that different defensively. One has no range and sure hands, the other has a bit more range and iron hands, but it all seems to equal out according to the numbers. Kennedy has him beat by a ton, but Kennedy can’t hit at all.
Strikeouts don’t mean much. It’s been said in several places by people smarter than me. There is no significant negative correlation between K’s and runs. I’d take Uggla and his K’s over Kennedy and Miles any day of the week.
Uggla does more offensively than just hit the ball out of the park. This is a misconception. I’ve argued that case already, and don’t want to rehash it all again. Besides, if it were all he did, which it’s not, he does it better than most of the ‘08 Cardinals, and does it in a pitchers’ park.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 18, 2008 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you put much stock in RZR
then Miles is a better shortstop than he is a 2B. Can I get a show of hands on that one? Range factors are about the same, Uggla makes more errors and turns fewer double plays. The question is not would you take Uggla over Kennedy and Miles, but would you take Uggla over what it would take to get him and over what other 2Bs might be available? Now if Florida wants to trade Uggla straight up for Kennedy and Miles then I am ready to make that deal. I would still prefer a table-setting kind of guy – now that is just personal preference. I guess you could argue that Uggla’s .352 OBP could get you there, but it is the best of his career.
I am not sure what to say about the pitcher’s park effect. I did see that his home/road splits are highly favorable towards the road, but in his first two years there was no negligible difference. Plus, Busch III is essentially in the same class as a pitchers park depending on whose factors you use.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Aug 18, 2008 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
…to tell you the truth I don’t think it will be worth it to get Uggla. It would probably take Rasmus at least, or some large package of higher level talent. My point was not that the Cards SHOULD go get Uggla, its that he would help make the team better right now. That’s all…
My opinion on the issue is that they’re better off waiting until this offseason and figuring it all out then. I doubt Uggla will actually be available to be honest. We’ll just see.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 18, 2008 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Addendum
I forgot to mention that none of the internal options excite me right away, so the solution will probably have to come from somewhere else. Hudson is a FA and may be a good place to start, but I don’t think sticking Lopez at SS and holding on to Miles and Kennedy is the right solution.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Aug 18, 2008 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
but I think you just accurately predicted what will happen. I would be curious to at least see Tyler Greene, but I seriously doubt he is the answer. I think Miles and Kennedy will both be back and it wouldn’t surprise me if Lopez is too.
But it sure is nice to dream of some as yet undiscovered slick-fielding MI prospect who runs well and is an OBP machine. You know, an Iz2 that can actually get on base.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Aug 18, 2008 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem with Hudson
correct me if I’m wrong, but there’s a chance he could be a Type A free agent so signing him would cost the Cardinals their number 1 draft pick. Then again he’s hurt right now so maybe that drops him far enough down to be a Type B?
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
by Tackle Box on Aug 18, 2008 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Since we'll be in picks 16-30
he won’t cost us our first pick. I believe we lose our 2nd round pick instead.
by azruavatar on Aug 19, 2008 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You've got that backwards
picks 1-15 don’t lose their first round pick.
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
by Tackle Box on Aug 19, 2008 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
touche
it’s early. more coffee needed.
by azruavatar on Aug 19, 2008 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would be very leery about
acquiring a hitter coming off a broken wrist. Those take a long time to heal completely.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Aug 19, 2008 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree 100%
so, in essence, there are 2 problems with signing Hudson.
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
by Tackle Box on Aug 19, 2008 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plus he is a creation of whatever they are calling the Diamondbacks
park these days. Very ordinary player away from what I believe is the second best hitters’ park in the NL.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Aug 19, 2008 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
is he collapsing under pressure?
or is he regressing to the mean? Given his low LD rate (15%), we’d expect him to have a sub-.300 BABIP. He had a .310 BABIP in April, .417 BABIP in May, and .327 in June, so a .237 BABIP in July and a .268 so far in August is just the baseball gods taking their toll for the luck they let him have earlier.
With a full-season BABIP of .317, he’s still been a bit lucky overall this year, though. Based on the types of balls in play that he has hit, he still owes the bb gods about 5 non-HR hits.
"..and that, my liege, is how we know the Earth to be banana shaped." -Sir Belvedere
by SleepyCA on Aug 18, 2008 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he's regressing...
from an OPS of 130+, then where does his mean lie? Around 110 or 115? If that’s the case he’s hardly worth it considering his terrible defense. At least you can count on guys like Roberts and Hudson to get on base.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 18, 2008 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking the same thing
and couldn’t tell if Sleepy was defending Uggla, piling on the criticism, or simply stating facts…….
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
by Tackle Box on Aug 18, 2008 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
just defending him from the Turk's criticism
i think he has been batting .190 over the last month and a half because he’s having a period of bad luck, not because he has some kind of moral failing. He was very, very lucky early in the year and that kind of luck is never garuanteed to continue, at least for people not named hanley, and in this case he’s crashed hard. of course he could also be injured or something like that, and he could be collapsing under pressure. but I expect him to bounce back at least a bit. his problem was that he was outperforming his own skill level significantly and people expected it to continue indefinitely, when that was almost impossible. A player is just as likely to have bad luck as to have good luck, and over a large enough sample it evens out, and that is what is happening.
It’s the inverse of what happened to peralta earlier in the season; CLE fans made a whipping boy out of him and many were demanding that they trade him for a bag of balls, based on his .230-ish batting average in april and may (caused by a ~.250ish BABIP). But he’s regressed the last 3 months and now has a .310 BABIP for the season and a very respectable (for a SS) .814 OPS. Cano is also experiencing something similar and would be a great buy-low candidate. Over the course of a season most players will have about the same amount of good and bad luck, but the distribution of that luck will vary.
To fourstick- it’s easy to look at past performance and say, based on hitting peripherals, “he didn’t hit the ball as well as his actual offensive numbers indicate”, or “he’s a better hitter than the numbers he’s put up”. Predicting future performance is a lot harder. IMO, while he doesn’t seem to have established himself as a true 130 OPS+ hitter, he’s probably better than a 110-115.
"..and that, my liege, is how we know the Earth to be banana shaped." -Sir Belvedere
by SleepyCA on Aug 18, 2008 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of Peralta
What the hell happened to Asdrubal Cabrera? Did he get himself really over-rated due to last season’s playoffs or is he just in a complete funk this year? And now that I look at it, he wasn’t that good in the playoffs either, just was talked about ad naseum by the media.
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
by Tackle Box on Aug 18, 2008 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i would love it if we bought low on peralta (or cano but that seems less likely)
i would also love it if we were able to pry uggla free from florida without giving up too much of course.
by mattybobo on Aug 19, 2008 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reminds me
of the fawning over Escobar of the Braves, except that he’s lived up to a bit of the hype this year. The MSM is always looking to anoint the next “great one” that they miss pretty frequently.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 19, 2008 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't mean to infer
that I thought his mean line would be around 110 or 115, but if he was hitting at a 150 clip earlier in the season and he’s regressing to his mean of, say, 125, is he a better fit for the ballclub than someone like Hudson or Roberts who can get on base in front of Albert and create more run scoring opportunities from the top of the lineup? This club has a good share of power hitters in it right now — it’s not a stretch to say that the Cards could have 4 guys hit better than 30 homers this year (Pujols, Ankiel, Glaus, and Ludwick who is already there). I’m just not sold that he’s the best solution, and his poor defense doesn’t really make me feel any better about acquiring him when he’s coming off of a career year and will cost a couple of very good prospects to acquire.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 19, 2008 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
uggla aint worth it
your telling me u want to give up some of the best prospects in the rebuilt system for a few years of bad defense & baserunning, heres a name Mark Ellis, the avg. may not be there but the defense and baserunning is and potential for 10-15 hrs, maybe this is our chance to get oakland back for mark mulder for getting them back for mark mcgwire
by thenextgen on Aug 18, 2008 9:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Mark Ellis is a MINOR upgrade over Adam Kennedy, no freaking thanks
I don’t want Uggla either. Only second baseman who can realistically be had, that i’d like to trade for, is Brian Roberts.
boo cubs, hooray beer
by Raconteur on Aug 18, 2008 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ellis
is a much more than a minor upgrade over Kennedy. He hits for power, gets on base more, and he’s a minor downgrade on defense. He hits horribly at home in Oakland, but his road split is much better. I’m not suggesting he’s going to hit as well as his road split at Busch, but I don’t think it would be much worse. He’d be a good guy to look at after the season — I’m guessing he’ll be a type B, so he won’t cost us anything. Rumor has it that he’s headed back to Oakland, for what reason I can’t fathom.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 19, 2008 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ellis' road numbers
are far more attractive than Hudson’s, but I am still a little leery about his age. I think the rapid decline of 30+ 2Bs has been chronicled here repeatedly. Can’t we just steal a blocked prospect from somebody?
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Aug 19, 2008 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
who?
There just aren’t that many blocked second baseman out there who are a top level prospect. Good MI prospects are the type you hoard.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 20, 2008 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just went through this exercise several days ago for shortstops
and found half a dozen or so that looked interesting. You could include those guys and do the same for 2B. I don’t have a ready list, but I would think our scouting department does. Philly just traded Cardenas away as part of a package for Joe Blanton. I am sure it could be done.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Aug 20, 2008 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can we safely say no one would take Kennedy in a trade?
I’m guessing so, and that being the case I think we can throw this idea or a free agent acquisition right out the door. No way this NEW cardinals team is going to pay to do either of these things while paying to DFA Kennedy. I think you guys are right sensing a change but I feel it will most likely be a trade for a young cost effective 2nd basemen. The A’s are loaded(Weeks, Cardenas, Patterson) all the while trying to extend Ellis!?!? Why not send BA for Cardenas straight up, DFA Kenn, and let the man play?
by RayMonD! on Aug 18, 2008 10:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Cardenas is in no way ready for the Major Leagues
boo cubs, hooray beer
by Raconteur on Aug 18, 2008 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Count me among the weirdos,
but I honestly believe the Cards will try to solve the 2B hole internally next season…. With Skip.
It’s worth a shot.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
by Alxfritz on Aug 19, 2008 1:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If Skip can do it well
(and by well, I mean competently play 2b), then it could be an interesting year.
C – Molina
C – Some fill in until Anderson is ready
1B – Pujols
2B – Schumaker
3B – Glaus
SS – Ryan
MIF – Kennedy
CIF – Freese?
LF – Ludwick
CF – Ankiel
RF – Rasmus
OF – Mather
OF – Jones/Stavinoha/??
That might allow us to play a Ryan at SS. I know it’s not the production we want, but adding a bat in Rasmus/Mather over Kennedy/Iz2 as a starter might be worth having the D at short instead. I dunno.
by stlfan on Aug 19, 2008 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You don't have a backup shortstop on that team.
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
by Tackle Box on Aug 19, 2008 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
or a backup backup SS
TLR would never allow it ;)
I kid.
"..and that, my liege, is how we know the Earth to be banana shaped." -Sir Belvedere
by SleepyCA on Aug 19, 2008 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That,
and who plays for Schumaker against lefties? Or are we going to let him put up miserable AB’s against lefties all year with worse than average defense at second base?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Aug 19, 2008 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought I heard that Schu
has been hitting lefties a lot better lately.
by stlfan on Aug 19, 2008 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dont see any way Ryan is the SS next year.
by rlgosnell on Aug 19, 2008 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was doing this...
without any additions to the roster. Sorry, should’ve prefaced that.
by stlfan on Aug 19, 2008 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is that a hunch or an educated guess?
Because I have seen no indication they plan to move him to 2nd. I know he takes grounders often in BP, but other than that I just don’t see it other than some people around here wishful thinking.
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
by Tackle Box on Aug 19, 2008 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's wishful thinking... I am sure Skip takes grounders at 2B just like So Taguchi did.
You know TLR is so obsessed with being “ready” for some random time that Skip needs to come in and play 2B he has him work on some stuff…. Also it’s a long season and guys tend to take ground balls/fly balls. I am sure you can find Troy Glaus shagging flyballs during BP as well. Heck Yaddi has taken grounders at 3b and 1b and he played 1b at Boston. I don’t get the whole Skip to 2B thing, it just seems to be on one those things people refuse to drop…
On a side not. I don’t know how hard the Cards pushed for the guy but Alexi Ramirez looks to be a good pick up by the Sox. Too bad STL did not get him as he can play CF, SS, and 2B……
by ICbirdfan on Aug 19, 2008 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"i don't get the whole skip to 2B thing"
What exactly don’t you get about it?
BTW Jason larue actually looked pretty decent at SS/2B in spring training.
"..and that, my liege, is how we know the Earth to be banana shaped." -Sir Belvedere
by SleepyCA on Aug 19, 2008 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You sort of answered your own question when you mentined LaRue
Just because a guy takes grounders or flyballs out of position in BP or spring training doesn’t really mean a whole lot. Skip was a middle infielder at one point and the organization decided to make him an outfielder for one reason or another. I highly doubt they’re considering at the smallest level to convert him back.
And what he “doesn’t get” is that some people here bring it up all the time like there’s a possibility it could happen when there’s nothing to suggest there’s even a fraction of a chance it will.
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
by Tackle Box on Aug 19, 2008 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We have Aaron "I'll Fuck You Up, Son" Miles
We needn’t any other player. Ever. In the history of Jesus.
Miles in '08
by Zoop on Aug 19, 2008 8:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
if
uggla is to pricey which i would expect him to be then i like furcal yes i know he’s 32 or 33 and with the injury this year who knows what his demands will be if u can gain leverage some way but he is the best shortstop free agent
definitely in the top 3 or 5 in majors on D and is a great lead-off hitter with a few bits of pop and would be a good guy to get on and be a baserunning threat
by fzeballer15 on Aug 20, 2008 10:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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