Perez or Waino as Closer

by apaul1029 on Aug 15, 2008 1:12 PM EDT Comment 10 comments

I was reading the SLToday article on Perez and that TLR did not want to give him the "closer" role yet. I can understand why TLR would not want to add pressure to Perez, but he also does not show him any faith either.

Then I read in the article that "The Cardinals are still considering rehabbing Adam Wainwright for the closing job. He has done it before." Then I though of the time that Waino was the closer. Was it not at the end of his rookie year and we did not have a closer? Didn't we also have big trouble in the bullpen? We had another two young relievers that were thrown into the mix in TJ and Kinney.

After seeing Perez in his last few outings, I would be appauled if they use Waino as the closer. The reasons are these.

1. Perez has closed before beit in the minors and college, but he understands the pressures and has the mentality.

2. Perez has better stuff for the Closer spot. A 97mph fastball that moves up and in on right handers is a killer pitch. I like a closer that is not afraid to throw the fastball up in the zone. (I don't think he always knows where it is going when he releases it, but) Plus his slider is better since returning. Unlike Izzy, I feel much better with Perez going to the mount. He is going to throw hard and without abandon to get the outs. He does not nibble after getting a 0-1 or 0-2 count.

3. Waino in the rotation is a big boost for the team. As some of you have said, as a starter Waino gets more innings. If he goes 7 innings instead of 5, like the rest, he has saved two relievers that game. And giving up 2 runs instead of 5, he might make it so you don't have a save situtation that game and it saves pressure on the Closer.

4. If this team is going to make the playoffs it will have to take chances. What would you rather have Carp, Waino, Lohse, Welly and Looper and Perez as Closer or Carp, Lohse, Welly Looper and Piniero and Waino as closer? Sure Perez is a wildcard but so was Waino in 2006. And I don't think Waino is a lock for a great closer now. He has been a starter all his career. Perez is a groomed as a closer.

5. If this team throws "craps" and does not make the playoffs, Perez has experience as closer for next year, Carp, Waino, Welly, McClellen are set as a rotation, offense will only get better with an extra $40million to spend on an infield or even the third ace. I want McClellen as a starter. I think he is wasted as a reliever. Lohse, I am not sure on. $10 mil? Why not Sabathia for $18mil.

I say take the chances and announce Perez as the closer and lets go all out for the wildcard. If we fail we have $40mil to fill the needs for a run next year. I feel really good either way.

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Perez

Hands down, absolutely no question. Wainwright is far more valueable in the rotation as has been stated time and time again here at VEB.

And if Sabathia keeps averaging 8 innings per start (probably unlikely, but you never know) he is looking at upwards of 25 mil. a year from the Yankees.

by lopey986 on Aug 15, 2008 2:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You made this comment.....

"Waino in the rotation is a big boost for the team. "

Based on what? I agree over the entire course of the season, Waino is much better than JP or Looper. But he is coming on an injury, and there are what, maybe 8 starts left for him, maybe less by the time he gets on the roster?

Think about it this way…..Looper and JP have both been pitching well. Getting results, going relatively deep into games, for over a month. Even if Waino pitched 7 inning, 2-3 run ball in all 8 of his starts, the chance of that being SIGNIFICANTLY better than what Looper or JP could have done, that is likely something like 2-3 games where he was a true improvement over JP/Looper. Truth is, it would probably end up being 1-2 games. He can impact 15-20 games coming out of the pen, stealing innings from guys like Izzy and Franklin, and keeping the pen fresh, which makes everybody down there better. Plus, like K-Mac, he’s another option against lefties since we don’t have a true LOOGY.

That said, with Perez pitching how he is, I don’t think it’s a big swing, during the regular season, either way. He’d likely be a small boost to the rotation, or a boost to the pen. But alot of the talk from TLR and the team about putting him in the pen was when Perez had just been recalled and we weren’t sure what to expect, and both Izzy and Franklin were getting bombed. That isn’t the case anymore. Still doesn’t mean the original idea, at the time, wasn’t a good one.

by SoonerfanTU on Aug 15, 2008 3:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think you are giving Pineiro too much credit

I think getting him out of the rotation would be a big plus. His last start was good, but he hasn’t pitched all that well prior to that.

Since July….

47 IP, 71 H, 11BB, 21 K, 29ER

I think Wainwright, if healthy, gives a big upgrade there. Probably moreso than the back end of the bullpen. But I guess it all goes to how comfortable you are with Perez closing.

by Merry CRasmus on Aug 15, 2008 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the way those numbers shake out

You’re looking at Pineiro giving up an average of just over four runs per start, probably with the bullpen giving up another run or two on average. At least half of those games would be losses. Wainwright, if he returns to reasonable form, would give up maybe 2-3 runs and the pen might cough up one or fewer on top of that if he goes deep into the game. So perhaps 75 percent of his starts are wins. If we’re trading one for the other, that’s 25 more wins on six starts or 1-2 games on the season. It’s possible Wainwright could win just as many more as closer, but probably not a lot more. So you have to look at the two main collateral benefits: (1) Being able to go, say, 1.5-2 innings deeper per game equals about nine fewer innings of bullpen use. It’s easy to see how high-leverage situations could be compromised by these extra innings, which would decrease the workload on the pen versus Wainwright by about 15 percent; (2) In the postseason, Wainwright would theoretically be available as a 1-2 punch with Carpenter. Adding Lohse means a very formidable three-man rotation. Carpenter-Lohse-Wellemeyer does not look nearly as strong.

by Red in Chicago on Aug 16, 2008 2:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Carp rushed back?

I can’t help but think that the Cards’ front office put us in more of a pitching mess by relying on Waino and Carp, not making a move, and then rushing them(at least Carp) back too soon. I find it hard to believe that is not at least part of why he’s back on the DL with another injury. How many pitchers come back from Tommy John after just two rehab starts? He simply couldn’t have had ample time to get back into pitching shape. Am I wrong?

Go Redbirds!

by CardsFanLV on Aug 15, 2008 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They didn't rush Carpenter back

He did his normal rehab. There was only one more game in the minors on the docket. Rather than finish it in AAA, they let him finish it in the big leagues. He was still on a pitch count during the three starts he made, just as if he was facing AAA batters. The only argument could be that his psychological well-being could have been damaged if he’d been shelled, or something like that. Obviously, he’s made of tougher stuff than that.

Had the arm injury occurred in spring training, none of this stuff would even be discussed. It would be just one of those things. I think that’s what it is. But the club is being extra-protective of their most valuable pitching asset, hence the DL, etc.

by Red in Chicago on Aug 16, 2008 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lets look aat what they did the first year

75ip, 64h, 26er, 22bb, 72k
vs
29ip, 22h, 11er, 17bb, 29k

Adam had better control his first year compared to Perez. Otherwise pretty similar.

by DriverZn on Aug 15, 2008 6:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Loop or Welley

I think it’s obvious Wainwright should not be a reliever. If Carp isn’t back yet, this won’t even be an issue. But if Carp comes back then I still think Wain should be a starter. Sure, Pineiro is most deserving of a demotion, but he wasn’t happy in the pen with Boston and has been a starter most of his career. I still say Looper should be the one who becomes our 8th inning guy, but Wellemeyer also has experience as a reliever and was pretty lights out as a reliever for us last year.

Wainwright’s the only starter besides Looper who’s had a complete game for us, I think. And Looper’s was out of character for him. Wainwright needs to come back and throw nine innings (although September would probably be when he can actually do this).

by Ghosty on Aug 17, 2008 7:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

what about carp?

there’s been so much talk about whether wainwright should go to the bullpen, but wouldn’t it make more sense to think about using carpenter in relief?

as far as i am aware, wainwright has been able to keep up his arm strength this summer despite being unable to pitch (it was just a finger injury). carpenter is the one who has scary arm issues, and therefore seems more suited to a role that would keep him from throwing a lot of pitches at a time.

wainwright does have some experience as a reliever, so that might explain why he’s been talked about that way, but why not at least consider moving carp to the pen for the rest of this season if he comes back?

by mattlo on Aug 20, 2008 2:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

couldn't agree more...

I thought this should’ve been done to begin with, but I understand the need of putting Carp back into the rotation when they did…It looked like it was going to go all according to plan for about 14 innings or so. I don’t blame them for doing it at all. The Cubs and Brewers both made big time moves and this was supposed to be the equalizer for those.

Now that Carp did get hurt again, If they are gonna bring him back it should be as a set up man for Perez.

"Ding-dong the wicked witch is dead!" - Wayne Hagin after the cardinals snapped a losing streak

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Aug 20, 2008 5:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs