HBP followed by HR

by themanthemyth on Aug 12, 2008 11:49 AM EDT Comment 8 comments

I was sitting in the Denver Airport last night watching the game on gameday. When Ankiel was hit by a pitch and Yadi came up I turned to the guy next to me and called the shot. Of course, I can't say it was anymore than a hunch but it worked out.

My question for the statheads out there is this:

Are home run rates in ABs when the previous batter was HBP any higher than the home run rate across all at bats? Is this even a statistically valid question? Logically it might follow that after hitting a batter the pitcher might just try to get a couple over the plate or he could just continue to miss spots.

I tried to look at baseball reference to see if i could run this query but I have no idea what I'm doing.

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I suppose it's possible

Because I’d imagine a get-it-over fastball is more common after a HBP than it would be normally. Get-it-over fastballs tend to get hit a long way if the hitter is prepared for one.

by whopperman on Aug 12, 2008 12:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I doubt it

Major league pitchers have pretty good mental fortitude, I don’t think they suddenly start piping pitches just because they beaned a guy. I guess I’d be interested in seeing the data, but I doubt that there’s any difference than the rate following, say, a walk.

Also:

I tried to look at baseball reference to see if i could run this query but I have no idea what I’m doing.

That made me laugh for some reason.

by mojowo11 on Aug 12, 2008 12:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

See, I would think that an effect, if it exists

would be because if you’ve just HbPed someone, it probably means that your command is off, and since your command is off, you’re either going to throw balls way out of the strike zone, or you’re going to pipeline one, because you’ve lost the corners.

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Aug 12, 2008 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

As a pitcher myself (albeit at the college level), I can tell you that generally hitting a guy has less to do with having generally bad control and more to do with just letting one get away or trying to go inside and missing further in. Or it’s intentional, I guess. But my reaction has always been mostly annoyance with myself, not a sudden need to pipe a pitch or get too fine. Hell, sometimes if I peg a guy in a non-crucial situation, I’ll mostly just feel slightly humorous about it, because I know it had to hurt.

I can’t apply my own psyche to everyone, but I generally think that major leaguers are, if anything, going to be slightly more in control of their confidence and emotions than I generally am. I just don’t believe that they’d get that rattled by accidentally putting a guy on first base—it’s not much different than a walk, in the end.

by mojowo11 on Aug 12, 2008 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybe if you could prove that anger and some sort of protection instinct

for a friend/teammate were to make you a better HR hitter, you could quantify this. but the anger quotient swings both ways, it could make you better or worse I would say, making this pretty much unquantifiable.

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 12, 2008 2:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i dont think its about the batter

its about the pitcher’s control issues, like valatan suggests above.

How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor

by themanthemyth on Aug 12, 2008 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it's really about both of course

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Aug 13, 2008 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Glaus

When Troy Glaus had that 2 home run game against the Cubs, Zambrano nearly hit him in the head, the next pitch was drilled over the right center field wall

by CarlCrawford on Aug 12, 2008 9:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs