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Knee-Jerk Reaction OR Big-Time Acquisition

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3478902

Well, we knew the baby bears would respond, but I must admit, I didn't think it would be this soon.

What are our reactions as Cardinals fans?  I personally don't think we should panic.  Experience and Talent still exist on our roster, and we should focus on this year and 2009. 

I'm very eager to see all of the reaction of VEB nation!

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I'm basically packing it in

This was a great deal for the Chubs. Gallagher appears to be the only guy they gave up with a big future. Harden is completely dominant (moreso than Sabathia) when healthy, and Gaudin is a useful arm, too.

Perhaps second place is still in reach, but this move undoubtedly puts the Cubs pretty far out of reach.

by mojowo11 on Jul 8, 2008 7:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Wild Card

I was resorting us to that even when the Sabathia deal was done, but this definitely puts the divisional title pretty far out of reach. To be frank, a Carp/Wainright addition could be extremely impacting, but I don’t feel it will match the moves made by our rivals. 2009 was always our focus, and should remain so, IMO.

by timmycardinals on Jul 8, 2008 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

"when healthy"

is the key word you just used there. I have confidence that there’s a 70% chance Harden will go on the DL again this year. This was a dumb move by the Cubs.

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on Jul 8, 2008 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow

That is all I can really say about this trade. As shrewd as Beane is, I wonder what he was thinking on this one. Murton is probably better than he gets credit for, but isn’t exactly a world beater. Gallagher is pretty solid. Other than that…not exactly awe-inspiring. In return, the Flubs get about the nastiest guy in baseball, plus Gaudin who is a legit mid-rotation arm. The Cubs just added a ton to their rotation…Z, Harden, Lilly, Gaudin and Demptster looks pretty tough to me.

In my mind, the Cards have to just tread water till Waino can pitch again and then go from there. Mo must realize that this team is set up fairly well for the next few seasons, and dumping Rasmus and/or Garcia for a rental would not be a terribly good move. Furthermore, the Cubs and Crew have clearly “gone for it” over the past year and a half, so while it may stink to sit on the sidelines and watch them knock heads it may be better to let just that happen.

"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.

by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 8, 2008 7:28 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

huge injury risk

he’s only made 26 starts in the last three years combined and half of those were this year. he’s already been on the DL once this year and the next trip is coming soon i’m sure.

beane’s a smart man and it seems to me he was taking the first good offer there was before the other shoe dropped.

every single comment i’ve seen about this trade always has the “if/when” harden is healthy.

it also makes me extremely happy that while the cards future keeps getting brighter the cubs keeps getting dimmer.

"Sorry about him, he's dealing with being an inker. " - Chasing Amy

by FutureMan on Jul 8, 2008 7:47 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Beane

I’m not a big fan of Moneyball or Billy Beane…mainly Billy Beane, but if there’s one thing i remember from the book, it’s “the day you say you have to do something, you’re screwed.” The Cubs put on a rush to one-up the Brewers and keep up with the Joneses. But banking on Rich Harden to stay healthy when he’s given no signs of ever doing that is so risky. Especially with the Cubs’ history with oft-injured pitchers. Billy Beane also has a history of shrewd trades that look good in the beginning but turn sour for the acquiring team (I think we all know what I’m talking about).

This definitely makes this race interesting.

by barry whiteteeth on Jul 8, 2008 7:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

This deal

reeks of knee jerk. The Cubs know that they are getting older, with big contracts, and an ownership group in question. THEY HAVE TO WIN NOW…next year, they’re another year older and deeper in debt. The Brewers don’t have to win now – they’d like to, but they have another two years or so before they get to free agent hell.

Look – Harden gives them what – 16 starts in the 2nd half? If he’s healthy? That’s 16 chances where they increase their odds of winning – but baseball is a funny game in that the odds of winning don’t always play out.

Stay the course Mo!!! Play competitive baseball all year long and develop the youngsters. Don’t keep up the up with the Joneses and potentially sacrifice years of good yound cheap talent for a rental. 1 year of potential greatness is not worth 4 years of mediocre, inept baseball.

I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. ~Bill Veeck

by bukowski on Jul 8, 2008 8:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

If my memory

serves me correct, the Cubs this really isn’t a knee jerk reaction from the Cubs. They have pursuing a front of the rotation type for several weeks.

Life is short! Break the rules! And never regret anything that made you smile.

by Section8 on Jul 8, 2008 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So have

a dozen other teams in baseball…it doesn’t matter. Again – 16 slightly better chances to win, with a huge injury risk. Think they’ll be able to keep him next year? If so, with new management next year, how much does it take, and what impact does this have in 2009 and beyond?

I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. ~Bill Veeck

by bukowski on Jul 8, 2008 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

my point

was that they have been talking with the A’s for a while about Harden. I agree with you about everything else. I was just clarifying that it really wasn’t a knee jerk reaction.

Life is short! Break the rules! And never regret anything that made you smile.

by Section8 on Jul 8, 2008 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I misspoke

and stand corrected. Harden will be a Cub next year. Still, they’re going to be older and more decrepit.

Sorry – this trade just makes me mad for some reason.

I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. ~Bill Veeck

by bukowski on Jul 8, 2008 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Older?

Well, yeah, but Harden is only 26.

by Hal Lanier's Pants on Jul 8, 2008 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You forget high-K pitching is one of the mildly strong correlations to post-season success.

Harden is a huge improvement for the playoffs. Those 16 starts really don’t matter because barring an historical collapse (which is always possible), the Cubs will win the division. But Harden over Gallagher for October absolutely should make the Cubs one of the favorites.

Zambrano
Harden
Lilly
Dempster

.....................................

by tyger1147 on Jul 9, 2008 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What would be historical about the Cubs blowing a 3.5 game lead in the NLC

and a 4 game lead in the Wild Card? Both of those on July 9.

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on Jul 9, 2008 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah

but its not like they gave up a ton of talent for him.

www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles

Dont take me seriously :-D

by jealousblues on Jul 9, 2008 4:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

the shocking thing about this is that the cubs really didn’t give up much. I don’t quite understand this from Beane’s end, unless he knows that Harden is about to fall apart.

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Jul 9, 2008 4:53 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i'll bet...

... Harden goes on the DL soon. he was missing 4-7 MPH from his fastball in his last start. that’s not a good sign for a guy with so many injuries.

BUT Harden is under contract next season for a relatively cheap $7mn. the Brewers are likely gonna lose Sheets and Sabathia next year, but the Cards will need to add at least one solid arm to keep pace next season.

by kindred on Jul 8, 2008 8:37 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i think the A's did well

gallagher compares well with dan haren around the time he was traded to the A’s (based on minor league stats) – he could be a top of the rotation pitcher at a bargain price for several years. the A’s also get some guys in murton and patterson who are ready (or close) to contribute at the major league level at low salaries.

what are the a’s giving up? a year and a half of harden … i’m guessing the over/under on the number of starts he makes in that time is around 16. even if he stays healthy, he’s expensive by A’s standards. then there’s gaudin – who looks like a decent guy for the back of the rotation but may never be more than that.

IMHO, gallagher is already as good or better than gaudin and has the potential to be a legit #1 or #2 starter. this trade is a bit of a gamble, and won’t look good in hindsight if harden wins the cy young next year. but isn’t that similar to what might have been said about the mulder deal a few years back?

by mattlo on Jul 8, 2008 9:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

With Patterson added to the A's...

Does this mean the Mark Ellis in Oakland era could be ending soon? He would be a nice player to acquire to play 2nd for the Cards and may not cost a ton since Beane already has a replacement. This trade could benefit the Cards more than the Cubs if things play out.

by Jumsy on Jul 8, 2008 9:42 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

things play out =

Cardinals make the trade, Harden hits the DL, Cards starters come back healthy, Mark Ellis plays like he has the first half…

What would it take to get Ellis? Reyes and some prospects? Maybe Jay and Reyes?

by Jumsy on Jul 8, 2008 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, this gives the Cardinals two choices....

pack it in for this year and the next, or gut the system with our own big trade for an ace.

by craig3410 on Jul 8, 2008 10:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Speaking of knee-jerk reaction...

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on Jul 8, 2008 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Look, you want to win the division, you need an ace starter.

Who knows how Mulder is gonna be, Wainwright’s preferably a good #2, and lord knows how Carp’s gonna be. Maybe we got all we could out of him.

Make everyone on the org but Wainwright, Pujols, Rasmus, Garcia, and Todd available.

by craig3410 on Jul 8, 2008 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I mean...

The Cubs big-game starters are now a healthy Rich Harden or Carlos Zambrano.
The Brewer’s big-game starters are C.C. Sabathia or Ben Sheets.
Our big-game starter is Adam Wainwright or Kyle Lohse.

We need a shutdown ace.

by craig3410 on Jul 8, 2008 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Speaking of pitchers with an injury history

"Cross a lawyer with the Godfather, make you an offer you can't understand" - Don Henley

by Futility Infielder on Jul 9, 2008 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

not to be too optimistic

but I think Carp SHOULD be fine, guys usually come back great from TJ at least for a few years.

Waino should be fine

Mulder is done, tost, I dont think anyone expects anything from him or even wants to hear his name anymore.
I think of him as a Matt Clement type.

www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles

Dont take me seriously :-D

by jealousblues on Jul 9, 2008 4:40 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

bear in mind

that im speaking for next year, i dont expect major contributions from any of them this year…maybe Waino.

I woudlnt mind having Burnett for next year though, a rotation with him, carp and wainwright would be sickining

www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles

Dont take me seriously :-D

by jealousblues on Jul 9, 2008 4:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

haha, good one

Will everyone please stop “packing it in” because of these stupid trades? They mean nothing. I’m sure Cubs and Brewers fans were freaking out when we traded for Mulder—did it make us an automatic winner? NO.

Harden could easily injure himself and be out for the rest of the year. Once that happens, the Cubs are in a worse scenario than they were before the trade. Frankly, I’m glad they made this deal because they gave up a ton of talent.

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on Jul 8, 2008 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What talent?

They gave up a bench player, the number 5 and 7 of their top ten prospects according to BA, and a utility player not even on the team’s top 10.

That’d be us giving up Ottavino, Mortensen, Duncan, and, i don’t know, Casey Rowlett.

by craig3410 on Jul 9, 2008 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Exacty..what talent

Sure was nice for Beane to give the Cubs a break for Harden and rape us for Mulder.

Seriously the Cubs made out like bandits here. They have been really lucky with their trades over the last 5 years or so, remember the Pirates giving them Ramirez for nothing?

Either Beane is a die hard Cubs fan…or he doesn’t care anymore and is looking to leave Oakland soon.
I wish we could trade off some spare parts for a ace type pitcher.

by KYCards on Jul 9, 2008 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agree

The SCrubs gave up some average talent for a stud starting pitcher. It’s painful to admit the Cubs made a great trade by not giving up any player that would have been a difference maker in their near future-and probably not even in long term future. I guess this is further proof what premium value is placed on left-handed pitchers with big league talent-even if it’s average big league talent. Personally, I don’t think Marshall is any better than a No. 4 or No. 5 starter. Murton is nothing more than an average talent. Patterson can maybe end up being an everyday second baseman, but I don’t see anything special about his potential that would excite me as a fan. I admit I don’t know much of anything about the Class A talent the Cubs gave up in the deal. So right now, as a Cub hater, I’m pissed. I can only imagine A’s fans are none too happy with Billy Boy right now.

by RedbirdattheBeach on Jul 9, 2008 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

oops

got the “Sean’s” mixed up: SCrubs gave up Gallagher, a rightey, not Marshall the lefty … still, I just don’t get it from Oakland’s perspective … they got nothing but mediocrity for two good (one great when healthy) pitchers … sickening.

by RedbirdattheBeach on Jul 9, 2008 1:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the only thing I can think of is

beene knows he is injured or will be soon and wants to get while the gettings good.

www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles

Dont take me seriously :-D

by jealousblues on Jul 9, 2008 4:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I said I would absolutely die if the Cubs got Rich Harden.......

Well, I’m not dead, but I feel a little sick to my stomach. Very sick.

Harden is truly an elite pitcher. I know he hasn’t stayed healthy-this is the first year he made 11 starts in a row in over 4 years. He also doesn’t have a killer contract, so if he can’t start for you, oh, well, you should be able to get someone else in there without having the franchise collapse.

Gaudin is a swing guy and a pretty valuable arm to have around….I bet Hendry wanted him for Rich Harden insurance and because Gallagher (and Marshall) are their only two ML ready arms. Gallagher appears like he’s going to be a good pitcher-and he’s pitched fairly well for a young guy breaking in…..I think they are going to miss him.

But Gallagher’s the only thing they gave up that they were going to use—Murton is probably a very good 4th outfielder-and he just seems like an Oakland player. Donald is blocked by Soto, and Eric Patterson was burdened with having to live down the failure of his brother as long as he stayed with the Cubs.

It looks like a good deal for the Cubs, but I have to say I remember when we went to Oakland for an ace, and well it only worked for a little while. Time will tell if they have better luck.

Rich Harden will make a difference IF he can stay on the mound-he really is that good. It would not have upset me at all if the Cards would have brought him here. Not one bit…...

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Jul 8, 2008 10:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Don't die

But I’m impressed, too.

The Cubs pretty much scraped out the top of their farm (and dumped a top round pick) to nab a potentially elite pitcher in their must-win season. Didn’t think they had the goods to get it done.

It’ll be that much sweeter if we can spoil their picnic with our ragtag gang.

by liam on Jul 9, 2008 3:11 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

all we can do is hope that the duct tape on this team holds together, we can get a few good starts out of our ragtag group, and then hopefully, Carp and Wainwright come back effective by August first. Carp actually throwing a 60 pitch simulated game is a good sign. If AJ Burnett can be had for a reasonable price, go for it. If not, just hope for the best.

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Jul 9, 2008 4:59 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

60 pitches for Carpenter, yes!

Wonder how would duct tape look on Wainers finger if worst comes to worst?

Heres hoping he’s healed by August! Im still thinking we need a bat more than a SP, unless Mulder just bombs (jinx!) and Wainwright doesnt heal.

by cardschinmusic on Jul 9, 2008 5:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That thought...

is haunting me everytime I see Wain on the bench, let’em fix it with duct tape! The American way, Red’s way!

by cardschinmusic on Jul 10, 2008 3:30 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

all I know is...

my # 1 baseball yacking buddy is a wool-dyed Oakland fan, as I am a Cards’ fan. Haven’t talked to him yet, but previously every time Harden was mentioned, he winced. He would always say “we’ve been trying to trade him and we WILL trade him when the deal is right.”

I don’t remember specifics (could possibly be the oft-injured thing, as in you ‘can’t count on him’ distemper) but in any case I don’t expect my friend to be sad to see Harden go.

by the Tewk on Jul 8, 2008 10:35 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

makes you wonder...

If Beane and Hendry are really buddy buddy like i’ve heard people saying, you have to believe that Beane didn’t hold back any kind of injury concern when discussing this deal. it does seem like hendry felt the need to answer the CC deal, and made a big calculated risk – if he’s healthy, they are golden. if he gets hurt, doesn’t cost me that much in players or sunk contract cost. and if he starts to wear out down the stretch, come playoff time you make him a shutdown reliever out of the pen – you still have zambrano, lilly, dempster for starters.

watching these trades go down, I almost feel like there is a silver lining, albeit not this season. 1) makes it easier for us to justify moving useful players we have now that will get us players for next year and beyond, like a MI. 2) with every prospect leaving the MIL/CHC system, it eats away at their depth just a little bit more. if anything, it’s going to help us dominate a few years down the road when chicago’s contracts become too heavy and MIL loses a lot of the young players they have now

by ecaw1123 on Jul 8, 2008 10:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

as we all know...

being the underdog is nothing new for our team…the Brewers and Cubs were supposed to be miles better than the Cards going into this season, and we see what has happened…I don’t think it takes a blockbuster, gut-the-system kind of trade to keep the Cards in this thing…I DO think we have to do something to keep up, even with the injured pitchers returning at some point, but I remain optimistic…maybe seeing Piniero outduel Hamels tonight and Looper staying close with Zambrano the other night makes me feel that these guys are going to take it to even the best pitchers in the National League…they won’t score eight runs a night, but good defense and above average starting pitching might be enough.

by tbell61 on Jul 8, 2008 11:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

at this moment

Id concede the year.
I feel bad for the players who played their hearts out but its clear this team didnt intend to compete seriously this year and they just dont have the players… too many holes to fill

LHP
SP
one more bat,
something in SS and 2B

they could probably fill one of those but they would still be better off waiting till next year when they can hopefully expect a fully recovered Carpenter and Waino, as well as Rasmus (who should be an impact bat, if not a star), as well as a FA SS or 2B…heaven knows they should have the money after the contracts come off the books at the end of the year. Perez should have some experiance and they could get help from other minor leaguers.

Still I think compatition could be tough next year if the Cubs keep Harden ( i dont know his contract status) and if the Brewers find a way to keep Sabbathia.
their rotations would be every bit as good as our if not better and their hitting projects to be better still.

Id personally advocate a team like this

furcal
rasmus
pujols
Ludwick
Glaus
Ankiel
Molina
Pitcher
Kennedy

or maybe we pick up Hudson and cabrera and ditch kennedy (though I doubt this)

Heck I somehow doubt we get any decent FAs most of the time, but I think this could be a year they step up.

They could also get a LHRP in FA, like the guy from Pit
though I think he may be a type A FA at the end of the year.

I dont know if they re sign Loshe or make a play for Burnett or not

right now I suppose the rotation would look like this

Carp
Waino
welly
pineiro
looper/loshe/fa/prospect

www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles

Dont take me seriously :-D

by jealousblues on Jul 9, 2008 4:34 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I like how people are conceding the year halfway through

sort of ludicrous to me, since baseball is very unpredictable

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 9, 2008 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

im just saying

i may have been a little down when I wrote that, but in essance thats what this year was: a conceded year… a transition year. The team said “Our best shot is 2009 and beyond, lets let this year play out and just see what happens, but lets set up for the close future”

we arnt that good of a team this year we dont need to pull any stupid moves that would ruin us for the future or next year.

sometimes you have to pick your spots. It doesnt mean they shouldnt play hard, but even if we pull off a miracle and get a holliday… we still arnt as good as the Cubs or the Sox really.

out pen is terrible and we would be counting on two injured pitchers to hold up, as well as Loshe having a career year, and wellemierers elbow, and Ludwick keeping up an all star pace…

Not saying dont play or try just not to make a dumb despiration move and screw us for years to come.

I dont see why people are thinking this team is one player away from world series glory either

www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles

Dont take me seriously :-D

by jealousblues on Jul 9, 2008 5:42 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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