Why in the world would the Cardinals target Matt Herges? Don't we have enough older RHRP in the pen? Does it have anything to do with the rotation or current RHRP?

I have a couple of theories I want to float concerning the Cardinals rotation issues and what I think is going to happen going forward, especially concerning the rotation.

Today's excellent post by lboros details the scary state of Wellemeyer's arm. The rule holds true that when you increase the innings from one year to the next a pitcher's injury risk goes through the roof. I'm lazy and at work and don't have time to look up the exact amount (I think its an increase of 80 innings, if memory serves me).

Looper went through the same thing last year (as lboros points out); now he looks like an effective pitcher, a year later. Wellemeyer may be in the same boat - as lboros detailed, not effective for the rest of the year, future looks bright.

So what are the Cardinals considering? Here is my theory. There is no way that Mo trades for Fuentes or Holiday from Colorado. The cost would be some significant prospects and payroll - and I don't want the Cards to overpay for production they can get from current players or prospects. Also, that does not jive with the stated philosophy - and until proven otherwise, I'm going to believe they are really trying to build from within.

However, the Cardinals did inquire on Matt Herges (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/07/rockies-trade-t.html). WHAT? Why would they inquire on Matt Herges? The link says they are looking for a veteran presence...what? Don't we have several veteran prescences in the bullpen already!

Herges is having a good year - here is baseball prospectus link: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/hergema01.php. However, he reminds me of Springer - older righty with solid numbers, no significant road/home split and is tough on lefties. However, I'm a little scared by his righty numbers.

VS. LEFT: .210 / .559 VS. RIGHT: .306 / .869 HOME: .261 / .770 AWAY: .256 / .659

He is 38 with an ERA of 3.32 over 43 innings, 31/15 k/bb rate. He is signed through this year for $2.5M with an option for next year.

Why would the Cardinals want another righty? The only thing that makes sense is that they are going to move McClellan to the rotation (IMHO).

I think the plan is this:

1. See what Mulder has. If no contribution is expected as a starter, try again as a lefty specialist. They will try everything to make sure they are not overlooking an asset.
2. If Mulder isn't a starter, McClellan gets moved to the rotation.
3. Trade small time prospects for another shut down right handed reliever - Matt Herges.

While McClellan was in relief last year in AA Springfield and has been a reliever this year, he is also up for a higher injury risk. I seem to remember some similarity to Carp & Wainwrights pitches and McClellan's offerings, but I can't find the link now.

My guess would be that the Cards are hesitant to move McClellan to the rotation due to injury risk, but now that we are 1/2 through the season he could be effective for at least a good portion of the remaining season before having problems. Hopefully he wouldn't pitch effectively into the playoffs and then struggle with injury, but it could happen.

Either way, here are my fearless preditions:

1. Mulder is ineffective through two starts. He is moved to the bullpen and ineffective and eventually cut loose.
2. McClellan is moved to the rotation.
3. Mo trades for two relievers - Herges (or his equivalent) and a cheap cost controlled left hander, probably no one that has been mentioned at this point. I'll be very surprised if anyone significant gets moved from the minors (any of our top 10 prospects).

I'll probably be wrong, and Wellemeyer or Mulder may be effective. Time will tell. Either way, moving McClellan to the rotation is an aggressive move and stands well with the philosophy of building from within.