swings, hits, misses
by lboros on Jul 7, 2008 9:45 AM EDT
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Printthe first two games of the series were essentially ties --- two very well-pitched starts for each side, a poor relief outing by each team’s ace, and a win apiece. justice reigned. the cubs won the tie-breaker handily and earned the series win, which in itself is no cause for great concern; long way to go. but the ragged start by wellemeyer? concerning. i’ll grant that he pitched better than the linescore suggests --- he only yielded one extra-base hit, and that one occurred only because ankiel misplayed the ball; several of the 8 singles the cubs piled up against wellemeyer were dinks and dumps. also to the good, he got the cubs to swing and miss 9 times yesterday, his best total since the elbow started to bother him. so it’s possible to spot glimmers of hope in yesterday’s performance --- but they’d only be glimmers. wellemeyer has yet to go more than 5 innings since his troubles began, and he’s yielding contact at far greater rates than he did previously.
the numbers bear that out. pre-elbow ache, wellemeyer had twice as many swinging strikes (133) as hits allowed (65) --- quite a measure of dominance. if a batter swung, he was twice as likely to miss altogether as he was to do anything positive with the pitch. to place that into context, three of the cards’ starting pitchers (lohse, pineiro, and looper) have 1:1 ratios of swing/misses to hits this season, and their best pitcher (wainwright) has a ratio of 1.6 swing/misses per base hit. wellemeyer was considerably more dominant than that for two months. indeed, he was nearly as stingy of contact as nl strikeout leaders tim lincecum and cole hamels, who both induce 2.2 swing/misses per hit; just as stingy as dan haren (2.0); and more so than brandon webb (1.9), ben sheets (1.6), johan santana (1.8), and zambrano (1.3).
for two months he was as hard to make contact with as almost any pitcher in the league. but in his last 3 starts --- ie, not counting the 6/13 debacle against philadelphia, when he clearly was not sound --- the colonel has given up 25 base hits against 22 swinging strikes, a 1:1 ratio. so while it may be argued that yesterday’s performance was mildly encouraging, he clearly has quite a ways to go to get back to where he was. yeah it’s a small sample size, but these numbers jibe with what we’re all seeing with our eyes: the colonel can’t throw it past people the way he did early in the season. insofar as he already has thrown 20 innings more than he did last year (when he set his personal high in innings pitched at the big-league level), it shouldn’t surprise anybody that welley’s hitting a wall. looper, another converted reliever, came down with a throbbing elbow last year at almost the same point in the season. loop ended up on the dl (as welley probably should have), and when he returned he struggled --- 6-6 with a 5.18 era for the rest of the year. if wellemeyer pitches like that from here on out. . . . . no need to complete the thought.
let’s talk instead about the brewers’ big trade. it’s the type of trade walt jocketty used to make back in the day, packaging up prospects for superstar rentals. that’s how he got mcgwire, rolen, edmonds, kile, larry walker --- eventually he overplayed the hand, but for a while that approach served the organization very well. the difference for the brewers is that they probably won’t (as walt used to do) be able to make a serious play at retaining their catch beyond this year: it’s all or nothing in 2008. i can’t say i fault them. just as there are times when it makes sense for a hitter to swing at the first pitch in an at-bat, there are moments in a franchise’s development when aggressiveness is a greater virtue than patience. you’re looking for a certain pitch, and it comes down the pipe --- there’s no point in extending the at-bat any further. take a full rip and hope for the best. that’s just what the brewers are doing --- and it might be the correct percentage play, even though 6 years of matt laporta will almost surely prove to be worth more than 2 months of cc sabathia. the more pertinent question is this: are the brewers more likely to win a championship with sabathia this year, or with la porta at some point in the next 6 years? that’s a judgment call, and a highly speculative one, but given the likely departure of ben sheets after this season you can’t blame doug melvin for thinking his present with cc looks brighter than his future with la porta. he obviously thinks he can make a deep run this year. if he’s right, then it’s a good trade imho even if la porta becomes an all-star.
what does it mean for the cardinals? let’s not kid ourselves --- it’s a major blow to their postseason hopes. milwaukee had a .500 record as of may 31; since then they have gone 21-11, the best record in the national league, and they’ve added a huge new weapon to their arsenal. but the cards’ 17-16 record over that span is the 3d-best in the league, and it was forged largely without wainwright, wellemeyer, and pujols; albert’s playing again, and (cross fingers) maybe welley can regain at least some of his former effectiveness. wainwright is still expected to make 8 to 10 starts before the end of the season. nothing else the cards can do but keep scrapping and try to keep their chances alive; they still have 72 games on the schedule, and they will show up for them and try to win them. their job is to stay within shouting distance, hoping that as they get healthier they’re still close enough to make a run.
should mozeliak counter melvin with a trade of his own to bolster the rotation? he certainly shouldn’t, and can’t afford to, trade away top prospects as milwaukee just did, but he might have to find innings somewhere --- especially if carpenter is ticketed for the bullpen upon his return. because what are the other options? we’ll find out soon enough if mulder can contribute; seems pretty unlikely to me, but the cards want to eliminate that possibility before they look elsewhere. if he doesn’t work out? well, let’s see: anthony reyes has worn out his welcome (what little he had to begin with), matt clement’s arm doesn’t work, and brad thompson lacks the talent. i think the cards would be best served not to look to the minors --- none of their top rotation prospects (boggs, garcia, todd, and mortensen) has made more than a dozen starts at triple A, and none is really prepared for big-league competition at the moment. it doesn’t serve the players' long-term interests, nor the organization’s, to throw them into situations they’re not ready to handle; if the cards are truly committed to the future, they should let those guys develop naturally rather than forcing them to the majors prematurely.
should they trade one of ’em for a veteran rent-a-pitcher? i’d hate to see them deal garcia or todd, but i could live with a trade involving one of the other two. i think the cards have sufficient long-term mound depth that they won’t miss either boggs or mortensen. they already have wainwright and carpenter under control for the next three to four years, plus pineiro for next season and welley for at least another two. beyond those guys, they have five viable internal rotation candidates who are almost ready: garcia, todd, mcclellan, boggs, and mortensen. six, if you count mike parisi (and i still think he could be a 5th-starter type). they don’t have room on the big-league roster for all of those guys; maybe it makes sense to cash in some value now, rather than let it die on the vine. of course, it might make more sense to wait another year, let some things settle out, and cash in at that point --- save the prospects and hope that some other, better trade opportunity presents itself down the line. if you made that case, i wouldn’t argue with you. but that likely means the cards’ promising start to 2008 goes for naught. if the cards don’t make a move to shore up that rotation, it very well might be in tatters a month from now.
i can see both sides of the argument; if the cards choose to let this season slip away and conserve their resources for next year, that is a defensible decision. maybe it is the best and wisest decision. i won't complain if that's how it plays out. but we should be realistic about the probable consequences of inaction.
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Welley
I was at the game yesterday and from what I could tell his slider does not look as effective as pre-elbow soreness. It has just a little bit of loop in it and not the hard boring thing that he usually throws. Lets hope that this is just a mental thing—that he is just a little tentative to let it rip.
Seems to me
The question of trading to bolster the rotation is more than one of whether the organization should be willing to part ways with some young talent. The question is, are there any players worth trading for? With CC gone, what is left? Bedard maybe along with AJ Burnett or Rich Harden, though in all three cases the Cards would be adding sore-armed pitchers who have struggled this season to an already long list of sore-armed pitchers (Wainwright, Carp, Mulder, Clement, Welly). If there is no one out there who can offer the Cards the same type of boost as someone like CC, a real ace caliber pitcher, and all the options are just as injury prone or as ineffective as those already on the roster, then it is best to keep the prospects and solider on with the current group.
I wouldn't say Harden...
has struggled this season…92K’s in 77 innings, 5-1 2.34 ERA. He has struggled to stay healthy (once again) if that’s what you meant.
There's always more left...
there have been rumors that Matt Cain and Zack Greinke could be had for the right price even. There are upgrades out there, it just depends on how much we’re willing to give up.
by rockin the red on Jul 7, 2008 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
I hear that the Giants are looking for a lefty first baseman...
"Give a man a fire, and he’ll be warm for a night. Set him on fire and he’ll be warm for the rest of his life."
I agree about not making any drastic moves.....
I just don’t see any moves that the Cardinals could make that would make us one of the top 2-3 teams in baseball this season, without gutting us going forward.
If I were Mo, I’d probably see what the market would bear for Lohse. Yes, I realize we are in no position to trade pitching, but if the haul would be good enough, why not? I’d also get to work on sorting out our glut of OF’s, as well as hopefully sending Reyes somewhere. Only Mo and a few others know what they’d like to do regarding our OF’s. I’m still hopeful that the plan includes moving Duncan and maybe Skip. Or maybe you move one of them and Ludwick/Ankiel. I dunno.
but would trading boggs be a drastic move?
in my mind, that’s not drastic. he’s got promise, but he’s hardly irreplaceable.
No, not at all.....
But I wouldn’t move him just to move him. I’d think whatever we could get for Boggs, we could probably get for Reyes, or Reyes and something lesser. I like Boggs, and I could see moving him, but I wouldn’t do it just to “get through the season”. Heck, in that case, just let him start for us. He’ll take his lumps, but he’d be working with Duncan every week too.
I dunno. I hate to “throw in the towel”, but I also don’t see us doing much this season, while next year could set up pretty nicely if we’re healthy.
We’ll have Waino back soon, coupled with Lohse, Welly (hopefully be healthy after the break), Looper, and JP. Then we have guys like Mulder, Boggs, Thompson, etc that can start a few games. I really think we’ll be fine. Not fine as in winning anything big, but fine as in having enough capable arms to finish the season.
it wouldn't be "just to get through the season"
the idea would be to keep them from falling out of the playoff race before wainwright returns. i’d be against any trade that would improve them from 82 wins to 84; those extra two wins have no marginal value at all. but a trade that would improve them from 89 wins to 91 might get them into the playoffs - and this team has a very realistic chance to win 91 games.
I'd prefer to see...
what we could get for Reyes before anybody else. He’ll have to be kept on the 40-man this winter and pass through waivers (or stay with the big club) next season in order for us to keep him. I’ve always liked the kid, and I still think he has big league ability…but I don’t think he’s gonna get a chance here and we may end up losing him for nothing.
Nothing
is what we can get for him. He’s been advertised since the beginning of the season. There aren’t even any nibbles. Reyes is at best a throw-in on another deal.
by Red in Chicago on Jul 7, 2008 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Actually, they could have got something.......
You are aware that Mr. Mozeliak was asking for a top pospect and another piece? My source tells me the Phillies would still like to have him…......not for anything near that-if he’d try a fair trade, he’d could be gone tomorrow….....
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Speaking of the Phils...
what does anyone know about Jason Donald? He’s currently playing SS for their AA team in his second full season of pro ball at age 23 sporting a .879 OPS. He put up a combined .868 OPS between low and high A ball last year. Can he stick at Short? What would it take to pry him away (Rollins is blocking him through probably 2011)?
Not interested? How ‘bout Adrien Cardenas? He’s playing 2B at high A ball also in his second full season but at age 20. He’s carrying an .850 OPS after putting up a decent .771 last year. He is also blocked by Utley until 2013.
Obviously Reyes doesn’t get us either of these guys, and really couldn’t be the center-piece, but maybe he could get it started.
I like that idea
let’s send Reyes and Skip (or plug in another outfielder, maybe they’d take Duncy) for one of those guys
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think there's anyway...
that would get it done. Dunc would be blocked by Howard, and Reyes and Skip (while I like both) are not much more than AAAA players right now. I’m sure it would require another young starter (at least) the question is would it take one of Todd/Garcia (no way), or Mortenson/Boggs/Parisi? I’d be willing to go Reyes, Skip and one of those three…depending on how good these two really are.
heck
I’d even throw in another like Parisi or even Boggs to get either of those guys!
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Skip is not a 4A player
Have you looked at the numbers he is putting up. Far from a 4a player.
Until Skip can learn to hit lefties...
(.422 OPS in 72 at bats) he is (should be) only a platoon player. He has hit righties incredibly well this year (.920 OPS in 224 AB’s)...making for a respectable overall OPS of .799. However, a .799 OPS can be found all over the high minors (Stav and Mather could probably outdo that). No, I think Skip is barely more than a AAAA player.
I think that is overstating it
AAAA players don’t succeed at the ML level. Gall, Seabol, Jiminez might all be called AAAA players. OPS in the minors is vastly different from OPS in the majors. You have to be an everyday starter with a very high OPS to be considered more than AAAA player?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
And Skip is not...
“an everyday starter with a very high OPS”. He is a platoon player playing nearly everyday with a decent OPS. I like him a lot, but I don’t see him signing an multi-year deals in the near future.
I didn’t mean to say that a .799 OPS in the minors could replace Skip…what I meant was there are guys all over AA and AAA that could put up an .800 OPS in the big leagues. Mather and Stav are examples of two that probably can.
I got the part about the OPS transition
I just thought it was a bit harsh calling him a AAAA player. I also wasn’t saying he was an everyday starter with a high OPS. Of course we could have said the same thing about Duncan. Time will tell, and I will let it drop.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
let them develop naturally
Agree with the concept but sometimes extra ordinary measures are called for and the team must look for the path of least resistance (or the one that shall do the least damage to the club’s future assets).
“none of their top rotation prospects (boggs, garcia, todd, and mortensen) - has made more than a dozen starts at triple A”
We know Mulder is going to implode and we’ll need a starter for a month or so after the all-star break until Wainwright is ready. We’re in a race for a playoff spot. Boggs has already started 4 ML games. He is not projected to be a front of the rotation starter. His ceiling is back of the rotation or bullpen. How much damage will it do to the development of Mitchell Boggs to give him another 6 starts in July – August? The alternative is to trade someone like Todd for a rental of middling quality. Let’s stick with the program of developing from within.
agree, jj --- todd for a rental makes no sense
but boggs or mortensen for a rental, i’d be willing to do.
I agree
as long as it’s B and C level guys like Boggs, Reyes and other collectible items for someone like Burnett would be fine.
I'm not convinced how much Burnett would help us
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I always feel like a pessimist
but we might be getting ahead of ourselves with Todd. He’s posted some phenomenal numbers but he’s barely a year removed from the draft and he wasn’t touted as a starter prior to the draft. Kudos to the Cards’ scouts if he works out but I’m a little hesitant to label him as the next big thing—cut fastball or no cut fastball.
I just don't understand how you can be so positive
that Mulder will fail miserably upon his return to starting? He’s pitched what 3 times since his return and he’s given up 1 hard hit (the hard grounder up the middle against the Mets). Do I think he’s going to return to the Cy Young caliber Mark Mulder? No. But it’s worth a shot to see if he effectively start a game.
I’m a realisitc as anyone about his “potential”, I understand he’s not the same pitcher he was, but then again I never thought he’d throw above 85 and he’s done much better than that so I’m willing to see him build his arm strenght. And doing so at the MLB level isn’t such a risk since you get to see him against ML hitters and the alternatives aren’t necessarily better.
Mulder
Tackle Box, I’d love for us to see a productive version of Mulder out on the mound … but the odds against are astronomically high IMHO given the two shoulder surgeries and fact that he was very hittable in his rehab starts in the minors. Be very happy to eat my words but any competent GM (and so far I am on the JMo wagon) has to prepare for the eventuality that Mulder implodes in 3 starts or less.
As this weekend clearly exhibited
we need offense. The only problem is, there is no offense to be had at the MIF positions.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 7, 2008 10:09 AM EDT reply actions
This is the biggest problem
not run prevention, run production. Maybe there’s a 2B out there we haven’t thought of who could be pried away with the right package. Mo should be all ears on this. They need someone good for next year, too. This problem will have to be addressed. Khalil Greene is out there…
by Red in Chicago on Jul 7, 2008 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Jack Wilson
is reportedly available. Plus, he would not be a rental, he would be through 2009 or 2010. Big upgrade on Izturis or Ryan as far as OPS. I don’t know what the Pirates might want for him though.
Reyes
Reyes would actually work in this trade I think
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 7, 2008 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I still want this guy...
Has now been moved from SS to 2nd base fulltime by the Angels, probably more valuable to them with the infield trades theyve made….he can swat the ball, tho hes been sucking at the plate most recently, both at MiLB and during a short stint in MLB….. probably plays decent defense at 2nd.
Maybe time for me to move on to the next great IF prospect…LOL!
I think Reyes, Brad, and a great backup OF ? might do it. Of course the Angels need power…so Im dreaming…so throw in Duncan or Phelps to DH? They have a lot of power at AAA tho, that can probably DH…dream.
by cardschinmusic on Jul 7, 2008 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions
trading chips that are not essential to the future
but would the rental we get for boggs or mort actually be better than boggs himself would give us? I’d have to see what the market is for a boggs or mort. I see your point that there is not really that much long term damage to trading boggs or mort because the system is developing RHP bullpen – back of the rotation guys at a furious pace.
I would hope
I rental for Boggs + OF would be better than Boggs.
But I like Boggs and don’t want to trade him. Which is why I guess I’m not a GM.
that depends
it’s pretty clear that boggs still has a learning curve; he isn’t somebody you can count on for 6-7 innings every start. there are gonna be a few times where he singlehandedly loses the game. a decent renta-pitcher is probably worth a game or two more than boggs down the stretch.
i know there are scouts who like boggs, and he has big-league stuff. if you packaged him up w/ reyes or one of the outfielders, and you tossed in some salary relief, you might get somebody who is reliable enough for the short term to keep the cards in the game; then you hope that wainwright comes back strong.
lotta “ifs” involved . . . . .
Exactly why the Cards
Should stick with what they have and see whether this overachieving team should be buyers or sellers at the end of July. With the number of medicore players having career years, selling high might make more sense to build the clubs long term talent base and fix some glaring problems, like the black hole that is SS and 2b.
i agree 100%
we have some guys having career years up to this point, i dont know that we couldnt seriously improve the team for 2009 by moving some of them. or, improve more for 09 than we could for 08.
package boggs with B. Barton
I can see something like this going down especially for a team who is already throwing in the towel. Barton could start for some teams out there but I’m not sure of his future with the Cards. Mather might actually make more sense as our 5th OF because of his power from the right side. I like Barton but unless the Cards part with C. Duncan (definitely should but suspect TLR is adamantly against) or Skip, I don’t see where there is room for Barton as anything more than a 5th OF. And we have Rasmus waiting in the wings.
But what does Boggs and Barton bring us? I’d be curious. Kyle Loshe was projected as a replacement level guy and turned out to be much more. If we can identify another pitcher in this mold getting beat up pitching in a bandbox who would benefit greatly from a move to spacious Busch, then I like the idea.
question
Can we trade a Rule 5 player like Barton, and does it then become the responsibility of the next team to keep him on the MLB roster or offer him back to Cleveland? Or would we have to attempt to trade him back to Cleveland before we traded him elsewhere? I’m fuzzy on the rules
Free Colby
by Oregonian Redbird on Jul 7, 2008 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
trade rule V players
It’s my understanding that we can trade a Rule V player but said player goes to the new team under the same restrictions as he was with the Cards (i.e., must be on the 25 man roster). Remember the Cubs drafting Josh Hamilton in the 2006 Rule V draft and immediately trading him to the Reds.
'in this mold' of Lohse
may very well be Bronson Arroyo. { after all, we don’t have a bona fide hot dog since Edmonds left ].
The Schu would fit in nicely in Cincy, as would Pineiro, or possibly the much ballyhooed Anthony Reyes.
Those three for the guitar-screeching Arroyo and Homer Bailey ?? ((Bailey has taken his lumps lately and has his head down a-current, but he is further along than Wainer was at a comparable stage and could end up being a solid #3 starter, even as soon as next year))i
Reyes has been
a fly ball pitcher, no? I don’t think that translates well to that ballpark. But if the Reds would do that and give up on Homer…well I am all for that.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
You know, Bronson is a fly ball pitcher too......
he did okay there before this year, and this year his troubles were not exclusive to the home park…...yeah, the park is a pitcher’s hell for all who enter; pity those who fail to adjust or allow the batter to square up on the ball…...Ha….wouldn’t that be something-Jocketty had several chances to trade him and never did-maybe he never really wanted to. But the Reds are in the division, and Mr. Jock surely wouldn’t deal with his old team, now would he? This whole thing makes me laugh-it seems so implausible. I guess that means we’ll read about it soon….in a real paper.
Oh, Bronson A.’s salary doubles for next year. Let’s ask for Harang instead, shall we?
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Our recent history as fans
I believe that we have been spoiled as fans for much of the last decade. Our string of successful, postseason teams and World Series title have made us less of a “win now” crowd. I think it would be ill-advised to waste this team’s tremendous first-half and not make a move to bolster our troops and increase our chances at a postseason berth, especially in the wake of Milwaukee’s armament.
Again, it’s a cost-benefit analysis and thank goodness LB put forth the proposition that it’s all or nothing. We must assess what we are willing to part with as it relates to what we are receiving. Going all in for this postseason alone seems foolish, but going in for this postseason and future seasons is not. I think we have to be willing to maneuver for an rotation arm (or lefty ‘penner or MIF), but not willing to sell the entire farm.
yeah
if we shore up at least one of those weaknesses (getting a rental starter, strengthening the bullpen, repairing out middle infield) we will still be in the hunt, and not have to give up too much in return.
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Do you think the Jays
are serious about this Burnett for shortstop talk? Or is that just wishing out loud.
by Red in Chicago on Jul 7, 2008 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Everyone would love to get a SS
but at the end of the day, Burnett is going to opt out of that contract. I think that if the bidding gets going, Riccardi is going to dump Burnett. But I could be wrong.
Well Burnett has certainly been
very mouthy in Toronto. I don’t think there is a lot of goodwill left there.
by Red in Chicago on Jul 7, 2008 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
And I'm sure that would be well recieved in St. Louis
LaRussa and Duncan are, if nothing else, appreciative of out-spoken and hard-headed individuals. They would most likely see his personality as a breath of fresh air.
I don't really follow the Jays,
but over the years it seems there has been a lot of bad blood and feuding involving a lot of players, managers, and the GM. Is that an accurate perception?
Who knew those mild-mannered Canucks could generate such heat? =D
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 7, 2008 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not seeing why Burnett is so good
someone explain?
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
2:1 K:BB ratio
strikes out almost a batter an inning
3.53 FIP
Groundball pitcher
what more do you want?
I know this isn't the best stat
but his ERA is almost 5
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Cheers to a .339 BABIP and 65% LOB
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
Let him pitch with our defense behind him
See what happens
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
yeah
but Toronto’s defense isn’t too shabby, is it?
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
The field they play on is murder on their fielders, particularly their infielders
Look at Glaus last year compared to this year
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
you are right
it isn’t the best stat. the ones I listed are better.
Burnett is in the top 15 in FIP in the AL. He’s a damn good pitcher regardless of his ERA.
I still hope we don't bother with him
unless we somehow convince them to take some of our surplus
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions
compensation
if the Brewers don’t resign CC, they should get at least a couple of top picks? I should know this by now…
Amaury translates into "Punisher of Spheroids" in the lost tongue of Atlantis. Marti means "Belgian Waffle."
Gotta think CC is a Class A player
So it is at least 1 first round pick, plus maybe a supplemental round pick (can’t remember)
yeah, they will get two first-rounders
but probably not a player of laporta’s quality. he was the #7 overall, if i recall . . . . .
Of course,
Colby was a sup pick, so you never know who’ll be out there. If Sheets signs elsewhere, they’ll basically have five picks from the first 35/40 next summer. Which is insane.
Well who the hell can see forever?
they had a ton this year as well
and with the excellence of their scouting , i’m sure they’ll get tons of good players. Like lboros said though, it’s hard to imagine any will be as good as LaPorta. That kid is a special talent.
boo cubs, hooray beer
actually i seem to remember there were those who felt laporta
was a bit of an overdraft. some draft projections had him going down to the yankees.
Amaury translates into "Punisher of Spheroids" in the lost tongue of Atlantis. Marti means "Belgian Waffle."
I don't think they thought overdraft
Just an odd draft in that the Brewers already were stacked at every position LaPorta could conceivably play.
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
Which throws great logic into the Walrus draft pick....
Why bother drafting for org need when you can just draft the best player available and then TRADE to org needs?
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
ah
shoulda read your post first, heh
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I hate it when a team drafts for need
unless you have a pick that can come to the majors the same season he is drafted. Injuries happen too, no?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
maybe they got him
so they could have a nice trade chip, like they do now
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
never know
la porta was signed after his senior season at florida.. he was drafted after his junior season, but wasn’t special enough to get the deal he/boras wanted. never know what will be around when.
If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, perhaps you haven't grasped the situation!
Technically Rasmus was still a straight 1st rounder 28th overall
The Cardinals are going to have a boatload of picks assuming we offer arby to Lohse/Looper and they sign elsewhere. (In theory Izzy should still be a type B at least).
Not to mention we have a ton of money coming off the books in mostly non-productive players. (2 mil to Edmonds, 2 mil to Spiezio, 6.5 mil to Mulder, 1.25 mil to Clement, 6.25 mil to Encarnacion, 8 mil to Izzy) We’re talking 26 million for literally no production.
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
While it hurts now..
that 26 million really makes me smile, regardless of what is available to us next offseason. Just the fact we don’t have $$ tied up in contracts that are “wasted”.
There are a few offsetting raises however
Carpenter: +$3.5 MM
Pineiro: +2.5 MM
Kennedy: +0.5 MM
Franklin: $0.25 MM
Molina: $1.5 MM
Wainwright: $2.1 MM
Ankiel: ???? (Arbitration)
That’s about $10 million in offsets right there. So really you’ve got $16 million for your prototypical big-bat leftfielder. Essentially you can step up for one star/superstar. Other upgrades would have to come from increased salary overall.
by Red in Chicago on Jul 7, 2008 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
That was just the total deadweight
You also have Lohse (4.25), Looper (5.5), Izturis (2.25) out and I’m guessing Springer (3.5) retiring. Garcia/Todd steps into one of those rotation spots (.4), Perez (.4) probably sees his role increase to Spinger-level if not higher and you’re “replacing” Perez with Motte (.4)., and hopefully Carpenter’s current deadweightyness turns into usefulness which is free! That’s a net of 14.3 more for now 30 mil total to work with assuming no increase in payroll.
Rotation:
Wainwright
Welle
Pineiro
Carpenter
Garcia
with Boggs/Todd/Mortensen backing that up for depth.
C Molina
1B Pujols
2B Kennedy
SS ?
3B Glaus
OF Ludwick/Rasmus/Ankiel/Schumaker/Mather/Duncan/Barton with whomever there getting dealt.
Pen:
RH Franklin
RH McClellan
RH Perez
RH ?
LH ?
LH ?
MOP Thompson
Bench:
Whatever.
Ostensibly that’d leave us needing a SS, 2 LH relievers, 1 RH reliever (and maybe a better closer than Franklin…and 2nd base but that’s another story) and 30 million to do it. Gotta love cheap farm players. Find two buffoons who can throw with the wrong hand and it’s ~25 mil with assets in the outfield from which to trade…...with only a SS, a reliever and maybe a sure-er thing in the rotation.
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
TJ and Kinney
if they are healthy you can slot Johnson and Kinney into bullpen slots
"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon
No thanks
Johnson is coming off of major shoulder surgery and Kinney was decent for 2 months….seriously what is the obsession with him.
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
Kinney was more than decent
but you’re absolutely right. I don’t get the obsession over these two either. At least Johnson is a lefty and would provide that to the bullpen. But, i’ve also heard he’s actually figured out a way into LaRussa’s dog house while rehabbing. That takes a special talent.
His stats from '06 were not special
25 IP, 22 Ks, 8 BBs, 3 bombs. Good not great. Playoffs 6/4 K/BB. Just because he didn’t give up runs doesn’t mean he was going to continue to be special. He threw 91 with a good slider. This is not wow-ing stuff. Coming off of major arm surgery, I fail to see how he could have ever been counted on for anything. I don’t get it. I’m typing in fragments.
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
dude, i'm agreeing with you
I said he was better than decent. That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement and not something a hundred other guys can’t do. Please read something other than the subject line.
Okay, now I’ve re-read your post for the 3rd time and I can’t determine if you’re proving you point to me or just sort of talking out loud in general and just happned to respond to me because my post was the last one in the thread.
Either way, I still agree with you and I might be one of the few that do in regards to Kinney and Johnson.
Talking out loud
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
Getting in the doghouse?
Um…no. I think it’s mandatory that 2-3 players per season be sacrificed to the dogs….....why not a re-habbing one?
I think they have blamed his shoulder injury on being out of shape at spring training——who knows. Maybe maybe not-but he did have some sort of shoulder/arm trouble last year. I’d be inclined to think it’s what Will Carroll calls a cascade injury, or is it weak link in the kinetic chain? I’m not a doctor, nor do I play one on TV, so what do I know.
It is never a good idea to place too much faith and hope on a pitcher returning from a shoulder injury. And I hope they have the attitude that they are going to have to see Chris Carpenter do it on the mound before they count on him…........because that’s the ONLY way you know for sure.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Pardon me, but
You’ve just identified a team that comes in third, maybe fourth, in the division next year. We need an upgrade to the rotation and another slugger if we’re going to keep pace. Pineiro/Garcia/Wellemeyer as your 3/4/5 (choose your order) doesn’t cut any mustard at all. We’ve always been able to locate serviceable relievers and build an above-average bullpen. But the middle infield and left are in need of a boost, and that 3/5 rotation won’t scare anyone.
by Red in Chicago on Jul 7, 2008 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
If you put that 3/4/5...
in the right order: Wellemeyer/Garcia/Piniero. It’s possibly as good as 25 other teams in the league…I say possibly cause Welley is a question mark right now and Garcia is still a prospect, but Welley has pitched like a number 2/3 starter this year, and Garcia projects as a 2/3.
Haha upgrade in left??
You mean like Rasmus in right, Ank in center and Ludwick in left. First off, find me a better defensive outfield. Second, Ludwick is well above average in left offensively and likewise for Ank/Rasmus. That would off the top of my head be the best outfield in the NL and probably the majors if you believe Ludwick is real.
Second, you missed the part where we have 25 million and tradable assets to get a SS. ‘Question mark’ will not be playing shortstop for the Cardinals next year. In a hypothetical situation: Furcal Ank Pujols Ludwick Glaus Rasmus Molina Pitcher Kennedy. Please do tell me how that is not a top 2-3 lineup in the NL. And again, best defense in the league. Plus defenders at every position!
Would the rotation be a total pillar of strength? Probably not. But 3-5 guys on any team not named the Rays “scare” no one. Do Tim Wakefield and Justin Masterson scare you? How about Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis and Sean Marshall?
Pineiro is league average, one of Garcia/Todd/Boggs/Mortensen is capable of being league average (with upside to be better), Wellemeyer has been really good this year (I’ll take the 3 K 0 BB outing every time, toss him some middling luck and we’re talking how relieved we are about him being back). Put any of those guys in front of that defense and they’ll look better. Not to mention we’d actually have depth again to cover injuries.
If Carpenter returns to being himself (I know I know, big big if…..but it takes these things) that’s probably the best team in the league assuming an impact SS can be had with all the spare cash.
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
+1
However, this is the Cardinals. It’s a sure bet about half of that lineup will see significant time on the DL.
hopefully not 3 years in a row though
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
they are mere mortals
don’t be afraid
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Small Bears players raises
If you think the Cards are adding a lot of salary through built in raises look at the Cubs. They already boast a robust payroll of around $120 mil, but due to back loaded contracts with raies they will be adding some serious payroll without getting any new players at all.
Zambrano +2.75 MM
Ramirez +1.65 MM
Soriano + 3 MM
Lilly + 5 MM
Fukudome + 5.5 MM
Marquis + 3.5 MM
DeRosa + .75 MM
That is an additional $22.15 million added to their payroll next year. Dempster, Wood, Howry, Lieber, and Eyre all are free agents so there is about the same amount coming off the books as they are adding with the raises. However, they will have holes in CF, middle relief, closer, and the rotation to fill.
"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon
I thought they had the most prospects?
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
that was sarcasm
I’ve read enough cub fan blather (and this time i didn’t even need to leave VEB for it) about how the Brewers are stupid by emptying their coffers just for a silly rental for a silly playoff berth when there gonna end up paying for it next year and the next. Yet the cubs signed everyone they could to a 7 year deal that escalates ridiculously and gave ‘em all no trade clauses.
They have a huge revenue stream......
Those contracts hurt only in relation to selling the team. There is no way they have trouble covering it.
The question is do they get what they are paying for? I think probably from Zambrano, Ramirez and DeRosa—the rest, not so much.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Kennedy
even though he has turned it up a lot lately, I still hope they try to trade him in the offseason. He still isn’t even the clear cut starting second basement. Hopefully at least a salary swap is in order.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I love it
probably not intentional, but “second basement” is a pretty apt phrase. I guess SS stands for shortstiffs?
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
My understanding...
is that the signing team gives its first round pick to the Brewers UNLESS that pick is in the first half of the first round (top 15). If this is the case then the signing team would keep its first round pick and give its second round pick to the Brewers. The Brewers also get a comp-round pick.
So depending on who signs CC, the Brewers could get a #16-#30 pick and a #31-40 OR a #31-#40 and a #40-#55. Big difference. This is new since two years ago.
Just to add...
this already burned the Brewers not once but twice last year when the Reds signed Francisco Cordero and the White Sox signed Scott Linebrink.
Because the Reds had the 7th overall selection and the White Sox the 8th overall, the Brewers ended up getting those teams’ second round picks (53rd and 54th overall) in addition to the compensatory picks (#32 and #35).
If it happens again with CC, the Brewers can definitely claim the award for Most Screwed by Current CBA.
Odorizzi isn't a bad pick for Cordero
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
Looking back over the past 20 years...
at the #30 through #34 picks (100 players), the best one was probably Brian Jordan, followed by Jerrod Washburn, Noah Lowry, Brad Wilkerson, Jack Cust, Arthur Rhodes, Matt Murton, Aaron Heilman… then it falls off pretty dramatically after that. The stars really do come from the very top.
Time to develop
Is it unrealistic for a guy like Todd to come up and pitch well in the majors? How long does a guy like that need to develop? And what does it mean? Clearly he’s dominating AA hitters after dominating at Palm Beach. But I’m just curious what needs to change for him to be a big league pitcher? Or is it just experience?
Personally I’d hate to see the organization trade for a rental. I think someone else nailed it earlier when they mentioned the offense.
It all depends on the player
I think Todd should clearly be moved up to AAA right now, as it does not help a pitcher develop much when he is dominating hitters at his current level. There is hesitation because he is moving so fast, but you have to move him up if he is ready. I think he will be promoted fairly soon.
But if Todd moves to AAA and continues to dominate, I don’t think there is any way he will spend a year there. If a pitcher is still learning, doing good at AAA, but not dominating, then yes, leave him there a while to get experience. But if Todd goes to AAA and pitches anywhere near his current level, he will have to be moved up to the big club – no sense in leaving a player at any level where he is too far advanced for the competition.
eh
There’s more to determining a player being promoted than simply looking at his number (which are very good). Mainly, is he ready? Scouts and coaches look for things that will translate into success at the next level. Simply dominating AA hitters is not evidence he will dominate AAA hitters and especially not MLB hitters.
They’ll take things into consideration like his pitches, their quality, his mental makeup, all kinds of things. Plus, there’s really no skinkin’ rush to get a player in his first full professional season to AAA. Let the kid mature and develop.
With hitters, I agree
With pitchers, not so much. Pitchers are so much more susceptible to injury that’s it’s often better to go ahead and use the pitcher while you can (if you think he can get major league hitters out), because you never know when the shoulder/elbow is going to go kablooey.
But thats, in essence, what I'm saying
Just because he is retiring AA hitters, doesn’t mean he will at AAA. AAA is loaded with journeymen and top prospects refining their tools to go back up. There aren’t any Josh Phelps’ in AA. Which is a guy who is a professional hitter and has hit well at the major league level. AAA is full of guys like that and the top prospects in baseball.
None of us know truly what this kids makeup is. He’s 22 years old at AA, maybe he still needs to refine something that will help him get AAA hitters out that doesn’t show up against AA hitters. Those are the types of things you don’t see in a box score.
And good lord, if you’re worried about an extra year or so on a 22 year old in regards to health, then you need to do something else with your time. You don’t rush up pitchers because you’re afraid they might get hurt sometime down the road.
I see your point, but
It is nearly impossible for a pitcher to refine a pitch against hitters that already can’t hit it. There is no way to judge the results. If you could develop as a pitcher that way, then you wouldn’t need to pitch in games – practice would be enough. I’m all for taking it slow, but if the pitcher is blowing away hitters, including hitters in the league all-star game, he is wasting his time at that level. If he moves up and gets hit, then he will have to adjust, but that is where the development comes from.
I could understand giving more time for a pitcher learning a new completely new pitch, but this guy is just refining what he has. He has to have real competition to do that.
As long as we're talking back-end rotation guys...
Don’t forget Walters. If his BABIP drops back down to his .310 or so, which is where it has been most of his career, then I think he can become a viable option in a year or two.
What does the Brewers system look like post trade?
Have they pretty much cleaned out the cupboard like Detroit has done, or do they have some guys coming up to replace the ones they traded? Anybody know?
It's still loaded
but it’s probably closer to where ours is now, then at the front of the pack like it used to be. They still have enough in the tank to make another big trade if they really wanted to.
boo cubs, hooray beer
Their cupboard isn't bare
but I’m not sure their system is stacked…BA ranked it in the bottom third of the MLB, and now LaPorta, their #1 is gone. But Gamel, Lucroy, Escobar and Salome have taken significant strides and they had a nice draft by adding Lawrie and Odorizzi. I’d say their system is pretty solid, especially on the hitting side. They are VERY LIGHT on pitching, Bryson was one of their better arms in the system
Amaury translates into "Punisher of Spheroids" in the lost tongue of Atlantis. Marti means "Belgian Waffle."
I wouldn't trade Mortensen
This is his first full year of pro ball, and he’s holding his own in AAA. I’d like to see more strike outs and better control, but those will come with a little more AAA seasoning. I think he has the potential to be a very good #3, and just as good as Jaime Garcia
boo cubs, hooray beer
Mort and Todd are both moving fast
the last pitcher I remember moving this fast towards the majors for the Cards is now our CF. Has it really been that long since the Cards have had a SP move that fast through the system?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Haren
Danny Haren went from AA right to the majors as a 22 year old.
yeah
but he didn’t stick in the majors that year. He made 21 starts in AAA as a 23 year old.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
looking back, I didn't exactly make my point clear
I meant a SP that stuck like Ankiel. I am saying stuck because I think we all can agree he would have stuck if…let’s not even get into that.
Danny is great. McClellan is not yet a SP.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
fast rising starters
Matt, Haren helps make your point. I think you are saying that the Cards have had few fast rising young starting pitchers. Haren / Ankiel were the last two. Haren should have never been traded and it was silly to keep him in AAA for most of 2004. He was clearly one of our best 5 starters and, had he spent most of 2004 season with the Cards, his value would have become apparent making trade unimaginably stupid.
... moral of the story: don’t trade fast rising starting pitchers. They may come back to bite you ala Haren.
good point
i went and got myself distracted, thanks for putting me back on my train of thought
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
While not in favor of trading prospects away
I have to think we will play better than the last 33 games, of which at least 20 were on the road. Didn’t we just finish the 2nd of two 10-game road trips? Thus, will Wainwright coming back, I like our chances to play more like we did in the first two months of the season. I am not as concerned with starting pitching as I am with the bullpen, in particular a left handed reliever. That to me is the priority, not a starting pitcher.
not to mention Pujols was out too
amidst all the pitching problems
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Yesterday's Start
While not NL Pitcher of the Month quality, it was a marked improvement from his recent efforts. This is heartening ot me because I think he is still working his way back from the barking elbow and it marks a step in the right direction. That said, with Wagonmaker down, we need someone other than Lohse to start tossing gems. Otherwise, the Brew Crew and Cubbies will put some more distance between us and them in the standings.
hopefully after the All Star break
he will be back to normal, and get that inflamed elbow some rest
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
no argument there
a lot of our starters have this problem lately. hah.
LaPorta was never going to be a Brewer, anyway...
He was bad as a leftfielder and blocked by Braun, and blocked at his natural position, first, by Fielder. His value has always mainly been as a chip, and if Sabathia gets them into the postseason, and through it, LaPorta did his job.
The Cards are in a position to make the postseason, but they should only trade prospects for players who will seriously help them. The burned out starters, washed up relievers, etc., that Jockety produced toward the end of his reign (I’m looking at you, Mike Maroth), aren’t worth anything. Better to roll the dice with the kids we have than deal for something like Padilla.
The only acquisitions likely to be worth prospects at this point are the big ones—like McGwire or Walker in the past or Sabathia now.
Was he blocked by Fielder?
I don’t think so. LaPorta was the insurance policy for when Fielder opts to go to Free Agency at the first opportunity.
boo cubs, hooray beer
4 years down the road when he's basically ready now?
He wasn’t Fielder insurance. He was an organizational asset.
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
Wolf
Any chance Randy Wolf would get us a compensatory draft pick if we traded for him and he left as a free agent? He seems like the best target to me for many of the reasons that have already been discussed, first and foremost because he’s lefthanded and also he should be cheaper than a Burnett/Sabathia/Harden.
Free Colby
by Oregonian Redbird on Jul 7, 2008 11:38 AM EDT reply actions
Pinto's Musings
An eyebrow-raiser from Dave Pinto over at Baseball Musings:
I’m also wondering if the Indians will resign Sabathia once the season is over. The Orioles did that with Sidney Ponson a few years ago. That way, the Indians get some prospects and keep their pitcher.
Wow! Wouldn't that be a real coup?
Cleveland seems like they would have liked to keep him. It woudn’t suprise if they tried to get him back. Also, if the Brewers are happy with CC at the end of the season, they could re sign him too. They are letting Sheets walk and they really don’t have a lot tied up in long term contracts on their pitching staff-except Suppan-who is a nice to eat innings and just have a calming, friendly, influence around.
I am officially scared of the Brewers as of right now…....
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
It'll never happen.
Do you really think Cleveland has the cash for that? They’re basically playing with a small-market payroll and couldn’t sign sabbathia last week or at the beginning of the season with no competition. Imagine what the bidding will look like this winter? The yankees didn’t have anything MLB ready and the sox didn’t seem to have a ton of interest, but if CC isn’t a yank next year, I’ll eat my hat.
The whole point of selling the naming rights of the stadium
was supposedly to be able to afford C.C.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 7, 2008 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Dirty little secret
with MLBAM revenue sharing and the luxury tax, there aren’t any small-market teams.
The Indians could afford to sign Sabathia to a long-term contract if the Brewers don’t.
And the beauty is: the Indians are unlikely to finish this season in line for lower than a top ten pick next year and the first fifteen picks are protected, so the Brewers would get a sandwich pick and the Indians 2nd round pick instead of their first rounder. As Jill said above, that’d be a real coup.
I won't be officially scared
until they have a decent bullpen
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
ugh
ok, I really don’t like how they have been winning so much lately. they won’t be able to keep that up imo. but if they keep getting guys like sabbathia, at least something nearly that good will be sustainable. which spells bad news for us, or at least some tough competition. but everyone knows that if we make that playoffs this year, it will be a hard fought battle.
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
that is what could make the Brewers really scary
are there any late inning relievers out there that could make a huge difference outside of Sherrill?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
But it does mean
they are actively attempting to acquire something everyone believes is a major weakness and they definately have the assets to get it done. It’s one thing to say the cubs are interested in C.C. Sabathia, when we all knew they didn’t have anywhere close the chips the Indians wanted, and another thing completely to say the Brewers are interested in a late inning reliever when those guys WILL be available, the Brewers have the assets to get said reliever AND they’ve already shown they are in this to win this.
If I were a bettin’ man, I’d feel real safe wagering the Brewers DO acquire a late inning reliever.
That is how the St. Louis Blues worked the past couple years
and it’s effective but shady.
boo cubs, hooray beer
Why is it shady?
I heard all the crap the other teams were spewing in the offseason about the Blues and it was complete bullshit, to use a cowboy colloquialism. The risk you take in trading for a “rental” is that you won’t resign him in the offseason. At that point, he becomes a free agent and is willing to sign with whomever he chooses. If that’s the team he once played for, fine. How exactly is that shady?
To deny a player the opportunity to sign with the team he prefers to play for, while that team wants him, would fall under the heading of “shady”.
it's only shady if you discuss it with the player before hand
that would be an especially egregious level of tampering, probably enough to cause me to support banning a player/agent/GM from baseball.
"If thats bad luck, lets DFA our luck away." -DriverZN
I see where you are going
but I still don’t see where that would be shady. No one is forcing the other team to trade for your player, and it’s pretty common for players of a team and management to talk about singing a long term deal or whatever.
Ultimately, it’s a risk, and in the Blues case, those players took less money to come back to the Blues than what was offered by other teams. Where’s the advantage to the player other than he REALLY wants to play for that organEYEzation? It’s not like the team can say they had an agreement and he has to take whatever deal they give him. He’s a free agent and you always assume the risk in those types of cases.
Adding lefthanded relief
would be the most direct way to improve our chances in the division and wild card.
The Cards are tied in the NL with the Padres and Giants for the most relief losses (18) and only three NL teams (Rockies, Nationals and Pirates) have a worse bullpen ERA than the Cards (4.22).
Last week, Post-Dispatch writer Joe Strauss confirmed the Cardinals are interested in
Brian Fuentes of the Rockies. This should be Mo’s priority.
fuentes
is a huge risk – there is a very real possibility that he turns into a pumpkin (ala Gagne). I would not give up anything of value to get him… I am in rockies country and cringe every time he takes the mound. He might just be going through a tough stretche right now – but he also lost his closer job last year to a rough stretch – the implosion frequency is too high for my taste.
by cdb on Jul 7, 2008 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
And most of those teams that have seen a collapse have had various problems
in their rotation. The Brewers automatically help their bullpen by adding another starter that can go deep into games. If the good Gagne shows up after his stint on the DL-well, they’ve pretty much turned it around right there.
Brian Fuentes is also being looked at by the Yankees and the Rays….....it’s going to take a lot…..maybe think smaller like John Grabow…...probably be had for a couple of AA or AAA starters…...
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Causation
I was thinking about this today while applying sealer to a deck, is the bullpen really that bad or is it the fact that the offense is so awful we put the bullpen in high leverage situations every single night (when we aren’t losing).
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 7, 2008 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmmm...the chicken or the egg......
It just seems that you put a lot of extra pressure on your pitchers if they KNOW they have to be perfect every time out. If they routinely show up in the 6th inning instead of the 7th or 8th that adds up to a lot of extra innings quickly…...No one listed the Marlins, but IMO they are beginning to see a monumental collapse of their entire pitchihng staff…because their starters have been on verge of imploding all season, with the exception of Nolasco and Olsen…...
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
I think I'm with you on this one
I’d say the offense could be better, and I think they will be… but if you add any kind of good hitter to it, it’s instantly improved.
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Since the KC series
I would put more blame on the lack of runs scored than the blown saves. Of the eleven losses since Jun17th, five have been where the pitching staff keeps the other team under 4 and we still lose (2 to KC at home, extra inning loss in Boston, Alberts return in Det, Fri vs Cubs). Like you said, these close losses cause Tony to burn through the bullpen in hopes of keeping the game close and the offense coming through bigtime. The team needs the offense to get back on track and play some LincolnBall (Score Four).
I'm just not on the relief bandwagon yet
yes, our bullpen, and esp. the left side, needs to improve. But if our starters can’t get us there, we’re freaking hosed. Let’s not forget Mulder is getting a start this week.
Seems like everyone...
is so-so on the package Cleveland got. I’m surprised rental pitchers can bring as much as they do. CC will make 14 starts. They have to win at least 10 of those games or the trade is a flop. Very rarely do rent-a-pitchers pull a Sutcliffe.
Definately
since the Cardinals rank at the bottom of the league in every single offensive category and can’t seem to find anyone who’s not performing well-below career average.
May be a pipe dream
but I’d love to see Larry Walker as hitting coach. I don’t expect he’s changed his mind about staying home w/ his family since ST, though.
Or McGwire
since he seems to have done well instructing some current players in 1 on 1 situations. I wonder if the club, or Mac himself, would be willing to come to a situation so likely to produce bad publicity. Also, as far as career offensive averages go, you might look to Luddy, Ankiel, Schu, et al. Regarding cleveland hitting below averages, yeah, they’re screwed. but that’s what they get relying on a catcher and center fielder for power.
McGwire for strength and conditioning coach
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
heck
let’s have Larry Walker and McGwire as the hitting coach! or maybe just Willie McGee
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Hitting?
We’re sixth in the NL in scoring, second in BA, second in OBP, fifth in Slugging, and fifth in OPS.
How would that conversation go?
“Thank you for coaching us to the second-highest batting average in the National League, you’re fire.” (?)
by bgh on Jul 7, 2008 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, maybe I just don't understand
what a hitting coach does. I think McRae helped Ludwick, but Schumaker is a McGwire protegee. Has he done anything for Molina or Pujols? I don’t know, but there is a strange propensity for the team to fall off in production for one, two or three games in a row. Miklasz pointed out the team has a dismal record when hitting fewer than two home runs in a game.
But when the bats go cold all at once, I would hope the hitting coach has a plan to improve them. Do we attack each pitcher the way Duncan goes after hitters? I think there’s a lot of room for improvement, particularly in terms of adjusting to pitchers during the game.
by Red in Chicago on Jul 7, 2008 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you have to blame the propensity for the dropped production
at least mostly on the players. I am not saying HM is a great hitting coach, but how is he supposed to make the team hit better with RISP? That is the major problem with this team, no? Cutting down on their swings ? You can’t exactly turn a hitter who strikes out a lot into one who makes contact over the course of a season.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
In general
What do you think any team’s winning % is when they hit fewer than two homers?
Bernie’s whole column was filled with selectively snipped statistics to make his point.
I’d say that each batter probably attacks a pitcher differently and it has been very effective. Hence our being #2 in BA and #2 in OBP in the NL. To me, this says that HM is doing his job. What more can you ask from him? Hal can’t sprinkle magic pixy dust on the players to make them “clutch” with RISP.
by bgh on Jul 7, 2008 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that last line about the pixie dust
just about summed up what I was trying to get across.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
A hitting coach's responsibiliy
First and foremost, a hitting coach is to develop a plan of attack. He develops strategy for the lineup to use against that night’s pitcher. Pitchers are different and often it is advantageous to change approaches and prepare hitters to look for certain pitches in certain situations from said pitcher.
I think where people go wrong in their critisms of hitting coaches is because of the title “hitting coach”. They’re mis-labled because, in fact, they are Offense Coaches, much like you would see in football. While the “hitting coach” does spend time with players refining their skills, it is not his primary responsiblity to break down every swing and correct everything since, for the most part, doesn’t need to be done. These guys are not professional baseball players at the major league level because they need someone to teach them how to hit. They can hit.
Of course, from time to time, a player loses his swing and needs instruction, which often comes from the “hitting coach”. But that’s also why they have roving instructors who do that sort of thing full-time as well as hitting instructors in spring training and such.
Okay that makes my point
When we aren’t getting on base all night, something needs to be changed. I know Albert will watch video of himself in the dugout. Anyone else doing this? Can we adjust to otherwise ordinary pitchers (see yesterday)? If not, why not?
by Red in Chicago on Jul 7, 2008 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
That sure is a question.
Maybe because they kept popping the ball up? That’s hardly something a hitting coach can fix in the middle of a game.
Ultimately the players have to perform and yesterday they didn’t. Something to take note of, the Cardinals don’t exactly have an intimidating lineup. There are going to be times when they don’t perform to your expectations. It happens. But I think a better evalaution of the offense would be to look at the entire season (which was done above) as opposed to their performance against one pitcher who fooled the offense enough for 6 innings.
Also remember that even the best might get on base under 40% of the time. That’s a hell of a lot of failure to expect our hitting coach to overcome every game especially when it’s often forgotten that there is another set of players being paid a lot of money, as well as another set of coaches being paid a lot of money, attempting to keep you from doing what it is you want to do.
Trading Prospects
I have a hard time getting Larry Anderson for Jeff Bagwell out of my head anytime we talk about the Cards moving prospects. Now if we could get Roger Clemens for Bagwell (all circa 1990, of course) it’s a different story. Otherwise, I’d much prefer the Birds try to win from within.
red sox scouting catching prospects
varitek is terrible and there’s a lot of talk in boston that he’s finished.
would they give up masterson, buchholz, or bowden for anderson and reyes/motte/etc?
i’d plug masterson in to our rotation right now. buchholz too, maybe.
They will most definitely keep Buchholz all to themselves.....
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Anderson would seem like a good fit there
Although I’d like to see him try to catch a knuckleball every fifth day. Does Mirabelli still catch Wakefield?
Maybe we could get Lugo out of it?
I’m not looking at stats at the moment, so I have no clue if getting Lugo would even be an option.
I think the Red Sox would
make that trade every day of the week, and twice on Sundays.
That trade would would make me cry though. If they want Anderson, they should have to give up prospects.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Please no
Lugo is not a good option- he isn’t hitting for squat this season- our in house options are better than he is
When cheese gets its picture taken, what does it say?
by RosevilleRedbird on Jul 7, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Lowrie
I could get on board with that. I think Anderson is a better prospect, maybe they could get a second-tier prospect too.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Cubbies
Mlbtraderumors says the baby baears are looking at Harden. Not usre the cards should go after him, but if the cubs get him and the birds do nothing for rotation they might be sunk
I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2
That's presupposing that Harden is healthy
Harden has made more than 19 starts once in his MLB career, and that was in 2004. He’s only pitched over 77 innings in a season twice, in ‘04 and ‘05. Maybe his injury luck will turn around, but they will have to scorch the earth of their farm to get him and it is quite a large gamble that he will physically be able to perform. (Couldn’t they just have have re-signed Prior?)
It’s also supposing that Dempster’s BABIP stays low. I think he’ll probably regress. Gallagher is not as good as we made him look. Lilly is coming on, which may help cushion the Dempster regression.
Nonetheless, they are very talented offensively and have a solid ‘pen. Even so, I think the power balance in the NL Central just shifted northward, to Milwaukee.
by bgh on Jul 7, 2008 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I would absolutely die if Rich Harden becomes a Cub.......
absolutely die. When he’s right, there is no other pitcher, none, I’d rather see on the mound. He’s a big old injury risk, I know. But he’s also under contraft at fairly reasonable terms (say he manages 25 starts) for the next few years too. It’s a dream, I know. Duncan and LaRussa don’t really prefer his kind of high fly ball high strike out rate in their pitchers. But still. I would love him on my team, injury risk and all. He truly is an elite pitcher…..
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Look on that same website
and read what it took the Diamondbacks to pry Haren away from Beane. Do you really think he’d demand close to that from whoever wanted Harden? Even he he wanted half, the cubs couldn’t even get into the room.
But the Cubs can offer
Felix Pie…and, and…Cedeno and…Murton…and, and…give me a second, I’ll think of somebody else…
by Red in Chicago on Jul 7, 2008 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
looking through the Cubs minor league rosters
they really don’t have anybody that jumps out at you.
Who are the Cubs best prospects anyway?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
They have none
Them and the Astros have the worst farm system in baseball.
The Cubs better hope that they win the world series this year or next, or else their window is closed for quite some time.
boo cubs, hooray beer
I was thinking maybe the parks in A ball
were pitcher friendly. They really do look like they have a terrible system.
The Cubs better hope they hit it this year. Age , salaries, and lack of a decent farm system is going to hit them hard soon. Hopefully!
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I dont know anything about the Southern League
which is were Tennessee (AA) plays, but their high A team is Daytona which is in the Florida State League (same as Palm Beach) and is known have pitchers’ parks since most of the stadiums are spring training sites. Although, it should be noted, the Daytona Cubs do not play in such a park since their spring training is in Arizona. They play in a kind of old stadium that would not be fit to have a major league team play spring training ball in.
Other than that, Iowa is in the PCL with Memphis, and I think that’s a pretty fair league across the board and Peoria is in the Midwest League. I’m sure someone on here has stadium and league stats handy….
outside of Gallagher
who some project to be a 4th starter at best, they have Pie, Vitters and a tight end. They also have their sole representative on the Future’s Game being a catcher named Wellington Castillo who is only 21 and hitting really well at AA although he doesn’t was just better than average at high A earlier in the year . Tony Thomas is okay and Donnie Veal is decent at AA. Some consider Tyler Colvin to be a good outfielder but he really hasn’t done much at AA this year either.
But Samardzija signed for 10 million and made it to AAA!!!
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
Absolutely ZERO chance the Cubs get Harden
They have absolutely ZERO prospects that the A’s would want. The only halfway decent prospect in the Cubs entire organization is Josh Vitters, and he alone wouldn’t be nearly enough to land Harden. The only way the Cubs get Harden is if they include Geovany Soto in a trade for him.
boo cubs, hooray beer
One would think if Mulder gets rocked in Philly
that the Cards wil have to try and get a pitcher….Mo seems to think Mulder will be a shot in the arm for the rotation…I tend to think otherwise. We can’t afford to be giving games away now that we are battling TWO teams. But I guess maybe ownership isn’t really that worried about getting to the playoffs this year anyways??
but that's the story of the year
we can’t be too defensive and just say that Mulder won’t work; we can’t afford not to at least give him a chance, since we have so much tied up in players like him. that said, if he bombs, hopefully they’ll pull the plug before they get electrocuted
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
The Cardinals aren't going to make an impact move
at the trade deadline. If recent history proves 2 things it is 1) they are in a transitional mode and won’t make a move to jeopardize 2010 and beyond and 2) they will say they are keeping ‘the powder dry’ for the ‘right type player’.
You dance with the girl you brought. They can improve this team from within, but they don’t seem to want to do so. They could cut some of the deadweight in the middle IF and the bullpen and promote from within. They can move some pieces like Looper, Lohse, Ludwick, Schumaker, Duncan and some bullpeners to restock the farm system and promote the likes of Rasmus, Reyes, Garcia, or even Todd to fill in.
But they probably won’t do that. They’ll more than likely get a big old case of the ‘standpatness’ and hope the current 25 man roster improves. And it might. I’m not saying it can’t. But, they can both contend AND build for the future if they wanted to.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 7, 2008 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
What if Rasmus, et al. don't perform as expected?
Then how are they going to content and build for the future at the same time?
Then watch out Pirates!
I really don’t think current ownership feels any pressure to win, anyway, or will they ever.
I disagree with that, but
if you believe that, then you should be rooting for the other NL Central clubs to get damn good, and quickly. Then you’ll get your pressure.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 7, 2008 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions
If Rasmus doesn't perform
we are screwed anyways.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 7, 2008 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Fine, I'll give you Rasmus
Even if he performs immediately, it doesn’t mean we will still be in it for this year.
unless we trade him now!
j/k
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions
you can't go with that mindset
Hell, every team has to depend on prospects. Luckily this team has built a deep enough pool of prospects that id by chance Rasmus isn’t the stud he is expected to be, it won’t be a dagger to the heart of the organization.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Not the point I was making
Hardcore said there was a way to do both, and bringing up the kids had a good chance of not doing both.
There is a way to do both
Why should there be more expectation that a converted reliever, an 1B playing OF, and a 4th OF’er playing well above his expected career numbers are going to continue to defy the norm than kids from the farm system living up to their potential?
Plus, if you fail after dealing the above away, atleast you got something in return for them. If you fail WITH them, you get nothing but comp picks.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 7, 2008 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I understand your point
But won’t that make it seem like they’re playing for the future instead of now?
Weren't the Twins, Marlins and A's supposed
to be playing for the future? They all found themselves in the thick of a pennant race. And we aren’t even trading away our best player to make improvements.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 7, 2008 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I think I get what you are saying
but standing pat has a good chance of doing both too. I guess I am just too confused.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Standing pat does have a good chance at doing both
But I don’t think that’s what Hardcore was wanting. He was wanting to bring up a lot of those guys from AAA and move many of our “veterans,” I believe. Correct me if I’m wrong.
I want to clear out the underbrush
to make room for new growth.
Looper and Lohse are both gone at the end of the year.
Either Skippy, Ankiel or Ludwick will be gone too to make room for Rasmus.
It isn’t fair to Duncan to continue to play him out of position.
Ludwick and Lohse would probably be the hardest 2 to replace from AAA/AA but are they going to be THAT much of a difference in deciding the division?
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 7, 2008 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably right
If you are Mo and Dewitt, sitting around with your optimistic hats on, you could argue that Wainwright/Carpenter/Lohse/Mulder/Looper is a decent likely five for the end of the season. You could argue that Wellemeyer is better than Mulder or Looper, and thus will even have a surplus of strong starter candidates. And you could expect, with a new LOOGy on board, and one the starters moving to the pen (Wellemeyer or Pineiro, perhaps Mulder), that all the pieces are in place.
Then again, you could argue the moon is made of maple bats dipped in ranch dressing.
by Red in Chicago on Jul 7, 2008 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree
Sometimes I get the feeling that ownership is hoping we fall out of the race so the pressure to go get somebody goes away. It sounds crazy but I really feel that ownership is content with the 06 championship and has no motivation to go for another real soon. I still think the Dewitts will sell the team within 3 years.
how much will it go for?
I’ll start saving now!
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions
ESPN Idiocy
Jayson Stark picks a frontrunner in the NL Central. writes this contradictory paragraph that proves him to be an (oxy)moron.
The Cardinals have been defying the numbers and the experts all season. So it would be crazy to count them out.
Defying the numbers? Which numbers? #2 in the NL in BA? #2 in the NL in OBP? Fewest errors? Our ERA is not good right now (4.16, 8th in the NL), but that is about the only number that wouldn’t bely having a top 4 record in the league.
So, it’s pretty much just the “experts” that were wrong? People like Jayson Stark.
You wouldn’t think this would be possible if you looked over the names in their lineup, but they’ve been a better offensive team than the Brewers in just about every category except home runs. The Cardinals also have committed the fewest errors in the league (46—or 10 fewer than either the Cubs or Brewers). And they figure to get both Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright back in the second half. So they won’t be conceding anytime soon.
If you looked at the names on our roster, then, no, you might not have expected this. But, if you looked at the numbers next to the names on our roster, our record makes perfect sense. Say you were too lazy to look at individual stats, you could look at the above-cited offensive stats (which he apparently did for the Brewers and Cubs in the response), and see that the numbers to equate to a competitive club.
We do figure to get Wagonmaker back, but Carp is a huge question mark. As part of his job, wouldn’t Stark peruse the dailies of MLB teams so that he knows this? Or, even their official team websites? Carp’s unsure future (for this season) has been well-chronicled on both.
What is Jayson Stark’s salary?
Sorry, my hotline didn't work
Here’s the link to his paragraphs:
by bgh on Jul 7, 2008 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
If you look at team stats though...
If you look at the runs scored vs runs given up, they are a little over .500 team.
Their expected record is 47-43. They are 50-40, better than expected. (So are the Brewers, actually. The Cubs are worse)
Yeah, I suppose, but we've suffered one brutal thrashing
What does the Philly game do to that pythag? That’s what, 19 runs?
by bgh on Jul 7, 2008 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
18
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
I think it's safe to assume
that he’s overpaid
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Wainwright Cleared to play!
Wainwright had a magnetic resonance imaging exam on Monday morning, the results of which led team doctors to allow the pitcher to begin a throwing program, general manager John Mozeliak said. Wainwright has been out of the rotation since June 7, when a pulley in the middle finger of his right hand ruptured.“We‚ll give him the week to do (the throwing program), and we hope that at that time he can increase his intensity,” Mozeliak said.
Why am I not overjoyed?
Probably b/c of the Cardinals’ medical staff’s record with pitchers returning from injury…
Still, optimistically hopeful…
by bgh on Jul 7, 2008 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions
or maybe because "Cleared to Play!!" is an exageration?
Cleared to start a throwing program, and cleared to play are a LOOOOOOOOOONG ways apart.
I Meant
Cleared to throw. I posted it on my way out from work.
1 week of soft tossing. Then Id imange 1 or 2 weeks of bullpen sessions and/or simulated games. Then 3-4 weeks of minor league starts.
Of course; there is the famous set back.
la sigh.
Total aside: MRI's scare the shit out of me
I don’t think we have a great grasp of what they do to the body’s electrical system.
I think they would be particularly detrimental to a computer
No way the hard drives survive even being in the same room as the scanner making it impossible to calculate stats.
I used to think that too
but x-ray technology is pretty refined now a days. It’s not like you’re holding U-235 or anything.
I’m not sure an MRI is dangerous but I’m unconvinced that it’s not. I’d also never want to live near any high voltage power lines. I’ve stood in substations and you can literally feel your hair stand on end from the flux coming off the line—it’s pretty cool and also a little unsettling.
U-235 is durn near harmless, actually
unless you get too much of it in one place. And “too much” is measured in pounds, not micrograms. (My day job.)
The real problem with MRI is that it doesn’t always answer the important questions.
by StanTheManFan on Jul 7, 2008 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions
why does he have a pulley in his middle finger?
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions
true story
I was sitting by the dug out watching batting pratice one dreamy sunny day. Wainwright walked up to me while sticking out his hand and said “pulley my finger.”
Man Im funny.
Nice young man
well liked, dreaming of being a highly paid big league pitcher, dreams of the life style, is having a break out year, and now the elbow starts to get sore. Starts taking increasing dosages of anti-inflammatory drugs and goes forward. Its starts to bark now every time he throws his slider, then his curve ball. He tries throwing just fast ball but he is hit hard. He ups his dose and goes on, trying not to be seen as flash in the pan pitcher. When he throws, he is so medicated he doesn’t know if he is tearing up his elbow or not, but he can’t seem to get any bite on his pitches.
Because management has little invested, they know better than to over-protect some one that may not have a future as a pitcher. He must prove him self a survivor because after all, we aren’t about fulfilling young mens dreams…......unless of course we own them for 5 years. Then we make apologies for them, and place there pillows by the fire.
Lidge…..37mill for three years…... Brewers sell next years seeds for CC…........Cards pay down there stadium loan…..............Brewers have 4 professional hitters, Cubs have 5…cards have …still 1…....... pitching won’t hide it. If the Cards go belly up like some of you seem to feel…....Lohse will go before the 31…......Rasmus will be brought up to keep fans occupied. Where are you going to find a strong, courages lad to stand against evil Cubs and Astros, and Mets and Phillies. They say they will take their chances with others in the collusion suit…... I don’t think so….....They are paying down the stadium bonds, amidst other trickery me thinks….......
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Jul 7, 2008 7:29 PM EDT reply actions
yeah
ok
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I started to read that
then noticed all the ….............. lower in the post and just stopped…............
I bet both of you guys read it all, didn't ya. come on, ya did.......
MO, “I’ve got money to spend”. Mulder against the Philly.they pray he show well so they can trade him….. Mather can’t hit ….whats that about. Another long swinging power boy. I bet if you read the scouting report on Mather you would laugh. If he went to the A’s, he would be all world, because they teach hitting. They would start him in high A. Chris Duncan has no future. Everyones prospects are better than he is. He is the concession to LaDunc for the freedom to make the Mulder style moves which are of MO’s design…... By the way, I would be doing exactly that with Mulder. Didn’t the original MRI on Waino state “no damage”.....the hand specialist said “it must be the pully”. Will they alter his style to guard against a recurring injury. Will they give him 120 pitches…....why no effort to save Welly from his peasant “Karma” . They are forcing his position, like Mulders because the want to know if he is just another bad contract waiting to happen. Management will hover in this “pray for Carp resurrection” pattern for years….....
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Jul 7, 2008 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I read all of your posts there
and I’m not sure if I can refute most of it, as it is speculative. no one has perfect owners, managers, etc. although the Cards have at least above average in most areas there imo
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions
This Phillies series will be tough
Game 1: Hamels throws for the Phils. I’d say we’re extremely lucky if we win tha one.
Game 2: Mulder throws for us. Same as game 1.
Game 3: Moyer throws for the Phils. Soft-tossing lefty, seems like we’ve had all sorts of success with them, no?
I’ll be glad if we take 1 out of 3
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
that's what I was thinking about the cubs series
I’ll be glad if we take 1 outta 3… but we are going to have to start winning series again, so they better step it up a bit. hopefully losing 2 out of 3 to the cubbies will light a fire in their hearts
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions
We also need to finally take care of business with Pittsburgh this weekend
They are going to be our downfall this season, I swear.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
That Pittsburgh team still loses a lot....
but not as much as before. This year they actually have players that can hit and score runs-sometimes in bunches. Beware the Pirates! We don’t seem like we’ve played to well there recently…...
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Take out the teams' records vs. the Pirates
And we have an even record with the Cubs and we’re 4.5 games above the Brewers
We should be better than 4-5 vs. them that’s for sure
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
blueprint for a successful franchise....
starts with developing surplus talent. What ‘surplus’ means will depend on your market setting (can you retain/sign FAs to fill holes, etc). The Cards appear to be able to part with up to 2-3 OFs and 2-3 Ps from AAA/majors without serious impact to their short or long term success potential.
The OFs would be from amongst Duncan, Mather, Stavinoha, Skippy or Barton.
Rasmus is not expendable and a realistic evulation of our playoff prospects for this year suggests we’d be crazy to deal him unless we got back a similarly star-projecting talent with multiple years of cost containment.
The Ps would include Reyes.
I would prioritize our retention of the AA/AAA SPs as (1) McClellan - we need him for the bullpen this year (2) Todd - seems to have the best ‘stuff’ (3) Garcia—only lefty of the bunch. That leaves Boggs and Mortenson as the likely candidates; Parisi, Worrell, Motte if someone has a hankering for them.
we could probably deal a 3B prospect too (and no one would cry if we managed to part with Kennedy or Izturis in the bargain)
anderson? I wouldn’t let him burn a hole in your pocket. we don’t have much beyond him and Yadi in the system.
That said, I wouldn’t necessarily go for a ‘rental’ unless we’re looking to add draft picks for next summer. But somebody who could help this year and down the road we ought to be able to make a reasonable offer for.
major needs for this year and next:
ss
lefty reliever
#2 or #3 caliber starting pitcher
impact bat
How much
influence did the Cards pathetic player moves effect the Brewers decision to contest the “Jinxed ” Cubbies for the division….............ya think!
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Jul 7, 2008 10:04 PM EDT reply actions
Well, I think they looked across the room at Ben Sheets......
They know he’s gone after this year, he’s a true #1. They see CC sitting there, with their farm system bursting at the seams, they know they can ship 2, 3, 4, 5 of them out-today. They don’t care-they have the mechanism in place to get more where that came from-and the confidence that they will get more where that came from. I really think they didn’t care one bit about what the Cubs, Cards, or anyon else in the division does. They just took one look at their line up, and decided they are going to roll the dice.
It’s a risk. It’s hard for one player, no matter how good they are to make the difference. No matter how it plays out, it looks like a win/win gamble. To their fans, they will have tried everything to bring it home this year…....and the prospects will be replaced with new guys probably just as good.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Yep
There’s only so much “planning for next year” that a team can pull. You have to take a big swing every once in a while. From a BrewCrew standpoint I think it’s a great move, unfortunately that comes at the expense of our beloved Cards.
nice thoughts
I hope you recognize the correlation between the attitudes of neutral observers and teams like the Brewers, that the Cards aren’t a serious contender this year, from the winter meeting to the present. This is predicated on our player moves and talent base. If Lohse doesn’t show well, or isn’t signed at all, this team is in dead last place, where all questions about winning and player moves is moot anyway. A rebuild year. I wish everyone would stop these pipe dream scenarios about procuring talented players when they are making no moves to secure the ones they have. I am aware of lots of con jobs going on through the press and management…......in concert. I can’t comment on this further. Boris is no idiot…......neither is Turner, who got 37 million for a 3 year extension, for a closer with bad knees. There is a market system at work here.
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Jul 8, 2008 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Not sure I agree with you
Can you explain to me how the team with the second best record in the league isn’t a serious contender?
And uh yes, there is a market system at work. I think it’s roughly based upon supply and demand.
What are some of these con jobs that you speak of? I’m sure some would be safe to discuss….
OK Mr. Lohse
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
Potentially "good fit"trade partners
I’m just now pondering possibilities, considering out-of -contention teams such as Padres or Mariners….Seattle: a good 2nd baseman in Jose Lopez, they also have a couple of bullpen lefties(Rhodes or C.Jimenez), even Ichiro may not be untouchable….with DH problems & Sexson on his way out they may consider Dunc, also Schumacher, Reyes and other usual available prospects…could even turn out to be a blaockbuster type.
San Diego probably could yield us some bullpen help and/or a guy like Khalil Greene, Skip would be a great outfield fit there.
Greene isn't hitting much better than Kennedy this year
He may not be a popular choice for the “impact” bat, but Brian Giles isn’t having a bad year .301/.394/.433
with a decent split against lefties despite being yet another left handed hitting OF. Power numbers would likely improve getting out of Petco too. his contract has a team option for 09 at $9 M with a $3 M buyout….........we’d probably want some cash in the deal
I like Peralta among the shortstop options. he’s owed $3.4M in 09, $4.6M in 10 with a team option in 11 at $7M ($250K buyout). He’s not hitting lefties much this year .194/.256/.403, but is doing around his career average vs righties .266/.310/.459. Ryan’s splits are the reverse so we could platoon them
Christian Guzman’s combined line is slightly better and he’s in the last year of his contract (if you think we can sign Furcal in the offseason). But his numbers are padded by killing LHP and is not much of an upgrade against RHP. Course we may never see RHPs again at this rate
Furcal’s having back surgery and isn’t a realistic option until the offseason. Everybody else at short seems to play for a contender or stink.
I'm not sure Giles is an upgrade over any of our OF'ers
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
He's certainly an upgrade against LHP
compared to Schumaker and even Ankiel
If you take into account TLR’s habit of spreading ABs out, there’s not much question he’s an upgrade(for this season) over Duncan, Barton, Stavinoha, Mather, et al
only issue would be whether he’s enough of an upgrade. Of course, a bigger upgrade would cost more to acquire.
I guess we could look into Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, Grady Sizemore, or Adam Dunn.
I'll tell you what, if the Rockies blow
this game in the 9th…I will never Rox Tober again. No sir!
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 7, 2008 10:54 PM EDT reply actions
Thank you, Rox,
for NOT blowing it in the ninth. Sole possession of second place is ours for at least tomorrow.
Hiroki Kuroda perfect through seven vs. the Braves in LA
/jinx
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
Heh
First batter after I post this, Mark Teixiera doubles to the RF fence
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
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