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Something for Nothing: A Brief History of FA Compensation Picks.

Star-divide

As we near the trading deadline, there has been & will be a lot of discussion of "rental" players & free agents-to-be & draft compensation picks for departed free agents (see Sabathia, C.C.).. Type A & Type B free agents will be bandied about with much fanfare & it can all be pretty confusing to figure out. Should a team (like the Brewers) consider taking on a "rental" player for the stretch run? Should the Cardinals go after (insert middle reliever name) who might be a free agent after this year? How do compensation picks work?

First of all, per MLB.com, here's what qualifies as "Type A" & "Type B" free agents:

"The former Club of a Player who became a free agent and ranks as a Type A or B Player shall be entitled to receive compensation in the form of a draft choice in the First-Year Player Draft succeeding the Player's election of free agency.

A Type A or B shall be a Player who became a free agent and ranks as a Type A or B Player under the statistical system of ranking Players set forth by the Elias Sports Bureau, using statistics based on a two-year average for each respective position group. Type A and Type B players necessitate that the Player's former Club receive a sandwich pick in between rounds one and two. Additional picks in the second, third and fourth rounds are exchanged from one club to another for the losses of Type A free agents.

Type A Players now rank in the upper 20% of his respective position group by the Basic Agreement, instead of the upper 30% as was stipulated in the previous collective bargaining agreement.

Type B Players now rank in the upper 40%, but not in the upper 20%, of his respective position group. Under the previous collective bargaining agreement, Type B Players ranked in the upper 50% not in the upper 30%. Before the most recent collective bargaining agreement took effect for the 2007 season, a Club would receive compensation for losing a Type C free agent. Under the new Basic Agreement, Type C free agents no longer call for a draft pick as compensation."

Now that we have that clear, I thought it would be interesting to look at free agent signings as if they were trades with the team losing the free agent having gained compensation picks for the departed player. This list isn't all inclusive; there were omissions based on how inconsequential the deal turned out for both teams. I did include all Cardinals matters as well as some of the big free agent signings since 2000.

Here goes!

 

2000
•    Diamondbacks – RHP Russ Springer  (2 years / $3.4 M) / Braves – RHP Adam Wainwright (29th)  & INF Aaron Herr (40th supp.)
•    Mariners – LHP Arthur Rhodes (4 years / $13.5 M) / Orioles – RHP Tripper Johnson (32nd supp.)
•    Expos – LHP Graeme Lloyd (3 years / $9 M) / Blue Jays – RHP Dustin McGowan (33rd supp.) & RHP Peter Bauer (45th)
•    Brewers – INF Jose Hernandez (3 years / $10M) / Braves – SS Kelly Johnson (38th supp.) & RHP Bubba Nelson (51st)

2001
•    Red Sox – LF Manny Ramirez (8 years / $168M) / Indians – RHP Daniel Denham (17th) & RHP J.D. Martin (35th)
•    Rockies – LHP Mike Hampton (8 years / $121M) / Mets – RHP Aaron Heilman (18th) & 3B David Wright (38th)
•    Rangers – RHP Mark Petkovsek (1 year / $5.7M) / Angels – C Jeff Mathis (33rd)
•    Mets – RHP Kevin Appier (4 years / $42 M) / A’s – RHP Jeremy Bonderman (26th) & LHP John Rheinecker  (37th supp.)
•    Rangers – SS Alex Rodriguez (10 years / $252M) / Mariners – SS Michael Garciaparra (36th supp.) & C Rene Rivera

2002
•    Red Sox – CF Johnny Damon (4 years / $31M) / A’s – OF Nick Swisher (16th) & 3B Mark Teahen (39th supp.)
•    Yankees – 1B Jason Giambi (7 years / $120M) / A’s – RHP Joe Blanton (24th) & C Jeremy Brown (35th supp.)
•    Cardinals – RHP Jason Isringhausen (4 years / $27M) / A’s – RHP Ben Frtiz (30th) & RHP Stephen Obenchain (37th supp.)
•    Cardinals – 1B Tino Martinez (3 years / $21M) / Yankees – RHP Brandon Weeden (71st)

2003
•    Cubs – LHP Mike Remlinger (3 years / $11M) / Braves – C Jarrod Saltalamacchia (36th supp.) & LHP Jo-Jo Reyes (43rd)
•    Phillies – 1B Jim Thome (6 years / $85M) / Indians – OF Bradley Snyder (16th) & RHP Adam Miller (31st supp.)
•    Astros – 2B Jeff Kent (2 years / $18.2M) / Giants – RHP David Aardsma (22nd) & RHP Roger Whitaker (34th supp.)
•    Mariners – 1B Greg Colbrunn (1 years / $750K) / Diamondbacks – 1B Conor Jackson (19th)


2004
•    Mariners – LHP Eddie Guardado (3 years / $12M) / Twins – LHP Glen Perkins (22nd) & RHP Matthew Fox (35th supp.)
•    Astros – LHP Andy Pettitte (3 years / $31.5M) / Yankees – RHP Phillip Hughes (23rd) & C Jonathan Poterson (37th supp.)
•    Yankees – RHP Paul Quantrill (2 years / $6.4M) / Dodgers – 2B Blake DeWitt (28th) & RHP Justin Orenduff (33rd supp.)
•    Braves – RHP John Thomson (2 years / $7M) / Rangers – RHP Eric Hurley (30th)
•    Yankees – RHP Tom Gordon (2 years / $7.25M) / White Sox – LHP Gio Gonzalez (38th supp.) & LHP Ray Liotta (69th)
•    Mariners – LF Raul Ibanez (3 years / $13.25M) / Royals – LHP J.P. Howell (31st supp.) & RHP Erik Cordier (63rd)
•    Orioles – SS Miguel Tejada (6 years / $72M) / A’s – RHP Huston Street (40th supp.) & RHP Michael Rogers (49th)

2005
•    Giants – RHP Armando Benitez (3 years / $21M) / Marlins – LHP Aaron Thompson (22nd) & RHP Ryan Tucker (34th supp.)
•    Angels – SS Orlando Cabrera (4 years / $32M) / Red Sox – CF Jacoby Ellsbury (23rd) & SS Jed Lowrie (45th supp.)
•    Dodgers – RHP Derek Lowe (4 years / $36M) / Red Sox – RHP Craig Hansen (26th) & RHP Michael Bowden (47th supp.)
•    Red Sox – SS Edgar Renteria (4 years / $40M) / Cardinals – CF Colby Rasmus & Mark McCormick (25th) & RHP (43rd supp.)
•    Yankees – RHP Carl Pavano (4 years / $40M) / Marlins – RHP Jacob Marceaux (30th) & LHP Sean West (44th supp.)
•    Brewers – C Damian Miller (2 years / $6.75M) / A’s – OF Travis Buck (36th supp.) & RHP Thomas Italiano (53rd)
•    Mets – RHP Pedro Martinez (4 years / $53 M) / Red Sox – RHP Clay Buchholz (42nd supp.) & C Jonathan Egan (57th)
•    Mariners – 3B Adrian Beltre (5 years / $64M) / Dodgers – RHP Luke Hochevar (40th supp. DNS) & SS Ivan DeJesus (51st)
•    Giants – C Mike Matheny (3 years / $10.5M) / Cardinals – RHP Tyler Herron (46th supp.) & RHP Josh Wilson (70th)

2006
•    Phillies – RHP Tom Gordon (3 years / $18M) / Yankees – RHP Ian Kennedy (21st) & RHP Joba Chamberlain (41st)
•    Mets – LHP Billy Wagner (4 years / $43M) / Phillies – RHP Kyle Drabek (18th) & SS Adrian Cardenas (37th supp.)
•    Blue Jays – RHP A.J. Burnett (5 years / $55M) / Marlins – 2B Chris Coghlan (36th supp.)
•    Giants – RHP Matt Morris (3 years / $27M) / Cardinals – RHP Chris Perez (41st supp.) & LHP Brad Furnish (54th)
•    Phillies – IF Abraham Nunez (2 years / $3.35M) / Cardinals – 1B Mark Hamilton (76th supp.)

2007
•    Astros – LF Carlos Lee (6 years / $100M) / Rangers – RHP Blake Beavan (17th) & OF Julio Borbon (35th supp.)
•    Dodgers – RHP Jason Schmidt (3 years / $47M) / Giants – RHP Tim Alderson (23rd) & C Jackson Williams (43rd supp.)
•    Angels – OF Gary Matthews Jr. (5 years / $50M) / Rangers – RHP Michael Main (24th) & RHP Neil Ramirez (44th supp.)
•    Cubs – LF Alfonso Soriano (8 years / $136 M) / Nationals – LHP Josh Smoker (31st supp.) & RHP Jordan Zimmerman (67th)
•    Giants – IF Rich Aurilia (2 years / $8M) / Reds – INF Todd Frazier (34th supp.)
•    Brewers – RHP Jeff Suppan (4 years / $42 M) / Cardinals – RHP Clayton Mortensen (36th supp.) & RHP David Kopp (71st)
•    Angels – RHP Justin Speier (4 years / $18M) / Blue Jays – LHP Brett Cecil (38th supp.) & OF Eric Eiland (88th)
•    Astros – RHP Woody Williams (2 years / $12.5M) / Padres – OF Kellen Kulbacki (40th supp.) & 2B Eric Sogard (81st)
•    Giants – LHP Barry Zito (7 years / $126M) / A’s – 1B Sean Doolittle (41st supp.) & OF Greg Desme (74th)
•    Indians – RHP Roberto Hernandez (1 year / $3.3M) / Mets – RHP Eddie Kunz (42nd supp.) & RHP Scott Moviel (77th)
•    Mariners – RF Jose Guillen (1 year / $5.5M) / Nationals – OF Michael Burgess (49th supp.)
•    Cubs – LHP Ted Lilly (4 years / $40M) / Blue Jays – RHP Trystan Magnuson (56th supp.)
•    Cardinals – 2B Adam Kennedy (3 years / $10M) / Angels – RHP Jonathan Bachanov (58th supp.)
•    Blue Jays – DH Frank Thomas (2 years / $18M) / A’s – OF Corey Brown (59th supp.)

Regardless of whether you can come to a conclusive judgement about the value of losing a free agent for compensation picks, there are some really good stories in there. Would you have made some of these "trades"?

Links from: baseball musings , baseball-reference , milb.com , cot's contracts

Boomer.

15 recs  |  Comment 56 comments

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Great Post

look at the red sox 05… wow, that worked out well for them.

ESPN Management (CT): Umm…...what does this have to do with the Red Sox and Yankees?
SportsNation Jerry Crasnick: Management, Let’s take a break with the sarcasm, OK?

by Smokin Turkeys on Jul 7, 2008 6:03 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

No kidding

Ellsbury: Productive ML outfielder
Lowrie: ML ready middle infielder
Hansen: Productive ML relief pitcher
Bowden: Destroying AA
Buchholz: Very promising young starter
Egan: Eh, the bad apple

Then again, we got Raz when they signed Renteria…and Renteria was terrible for them.

by mojowo11 on Jul 7, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd say the Cards...

came out winners on all of these “trades” except for maybe the Kennedy one. I don’t know anything about Bachanov. You put a lot of work into this little piece…thanks and great job!!

by cardzfanbub on Jul 7, 2008 8:50 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good Work

It’s kind of interesting the contrast…In some of those deals a team loses a guy and spins it for someone/someones who turn out to be stars…Others, eh…not so much.

My favorite may be the Yankees getting Joba and Ian Kennedy (who tore up the minors and still could work out as a pro) for Tom Gordon. Also, the Mets losing Mike Hampton and getting Heilman and David Wright is sort of the gift that keeps on giving, b/c the Mets now get to watch the Bravos go on Hampton-watch every year while D-Wright drops bombs and Heilman gives up bombs to Yadi…er, deal late in games.

"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.

by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 7, 2008 8:54 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Look at

What the White Sox got from the Yankees for Tom Gordon back in 2004. They gave up freaking Ray Liotta. Damn that was one hell of a trade!

by madeintaiwan on Jul 7, 2008 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

shoeless joe

was a helluva player.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on Jul 7, 2008 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

To the smart, go the spoils....

Great read. One thing I gleem from this is that the value of the compensation pick depends on the organization who inherits it. For example, the A’s and Red Sox picks stand out as usually great picks. So holding on to a free agent makes more sense for a team witha developed scouting department that has a history of producing success. While past success may not necessarily translate into future gains, it makes it more likely.

by Brock20 on Jul 7, 2008 9:16 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Wow.

This just goes to show that building from within has a snowball effect on the organization.

Develop prospects, use them for six years and take the compensation picks. This is a shure recipe for success and there is no way the Cards are going to trade prospects for proven veterans, as they did with Jocketty quite successfully.

Look at the Braves, Red Socks, and A’s – their picks are remarkable. I think this is the way competitive teams will keep a great farm system – losing free agents.

I never knew how that worked so well – great post.

jp

by jpmorgan5150 on Jul 7, 2008 12:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

You fail to notice the other players on the Red Sox and Braves

The Sox didn’t draft J.D. Drew, Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Mke Lowell, Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, etc. etc.

And the Braves didn’t draft Mark Teixiera (oh wait….they traded Jarod Saltalamaccia for him….hmmm). And beside, the Braves aren’t exactly world beaters right now.

Basically, it takes a little of both to be good.

by Tackle Box on Jul 7, 2008 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Now that the Cardinals seem to draft a tad better

it might make more sense for them to heavily weigh the value of the compensatory picks when evaluating trades. I know I would rather have Mortensen and Kopp than pay Suppan $42M. I wonder if Lohse would be worth more in a deal than if we just let him walk? I love what he has done for the club so far, but it isn’t very likely he will go 10-2 in the second half as well. If he does we won’t be able to afford him.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Jul 7, 2008 12:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

would Lohse be Type A?

he’s a fringe guy, i bet.

by kindred on Jul 7, 2008 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

comparing to other pitchers

in 2007, supp was a type A and lilly was a type B.

lilly was coming off a 15-win, 106 ERA+ season. suppan was coming off a 12-win, 108 ERA+ season (albeit with a NLCS MVP under his belt). suppan had 106 career wins thru age 31, lilly had 59 thru age 30. their career ERA+ were pretty similar – i didn’t calculate it but both seem to have been within a point or two of 100.

projecting favorably for the second half of this season, lohse will probably be around 80 career wins thru age 29, with a career ERA+ in the 97-98 range. i suppose if he wins 18-19 games this season and finished with an ERA+ in the 115-120 range he might get type A status, but i’d bet on him ending up a B.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on Jul 7, 2008 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

follow up

the only two SPs that warrented picks in 2008 were tom glavine (type A) and livan hernandez (type B). sadly, neither offers a very good comparison to lohse. as an added commentary, the braves’ signing of glavine cost them two top-30ish picks, which resulted in the mets drafting 1B/OF ike davis and RHP bradley holt in exchange for 12 starts of pretty ugly 84 ERA+.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on Jul 7, 2008 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

right...

... Lohse wasn’t even a B last year. i can’t imagine he’d jump up to A this year.

by kindred on Jul 7, 2008 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If he somehow puts together 18-19 wins he would be I'm pretty sure

"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA

by joker24 on Jul 8, 2008 2:03 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that's the thing

afaik no one really knows what set of stats Elias uses to determine type “a” or “b” status. maybe the clubs know the formula, but if they do they’ve been very good about not leaking it. For SP’s it probably includes W’s and L’s… lol?

I just now got to this thread, and until today I didn’t realize that the standards for “a” and “b” have changed. There will probably be very few type A FA’s after this year, given the new classifications.

The other thing to note is that if a club who was in the bottom half signs your FA, even if he IS an “a”, you only get a supp pick and a 2nd round pick instead of a first round pick. This sucks.

"If thats bad luck, lets DFA our luck away." -DriverZN

by SleepyCA on Jul 12, 2008 2:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Very few Type A FA's?

20% is 20%, not sure how that can really change too drastically, unless you’re talking about the number of Type A FA’s that get signed, but those are the best players in the game, so someone’s going to sign them, right? Plus, not all of ‘em are going to be offerend arbitration, so that throws compensation out the window as well as the top 15 teams not having to lose their first round pick.

Can’t say I’m followin’ you on that statement…

by Tackle Box on Jul 14, 2008 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i think the 20%

refers to top 20% in the game, not top 20% of each respective free agent class.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on Jul 14, 2008 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That doens't make sense either

It’s not the top 20% of Type A free agents require compensation or top 20% free agents in the game. Type A is top 20% of the respective position group. In other words, the top 20% of first basemen, top 20% of second basemen, top 20% of shortstops, etc.

Either way, 20% is still 20%. Sure there’s going to be fluctuation from year to year so the number of Type A free agents is going to be about the same every year. Statistics don’t really have anything to do with it in terms of a benchmark. If you’re in the top 20% of players at you respective position, you’re a Type A free agent.

At least that’s the way it reads in the origional post.

by Tackle Box on Jul 14, 2008 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

True 20% is 20%

However, in the fanpost, glamboomer states that under the previous collective bargaining agreement that the top 30% were type A free agents, and currently that number has been reduced to 20%. Since 20% is not 30 , and is in fact 10 less than 30% we can count on approximately a 10% reduction in the number of type A free agents from the previous collective bargaining agreement.

by MotherTruckinSteve on Jul 17, 2008 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that's what i was thinking...

... one good year does not make a player Type A. Lohse’s career ERA+ is 97; even if he continues to pitch very well for us this season and bumps it up to 100, i don’t understand how league-average career ERA+ plus ~ 80 wins puts you into the top 20% of starting pitchers in MLB (basically, for him to be in the top 20% he’d have to be on the same level as the average team ace). even if he continues to pitch well this year, Lohse will have had 3 above-average seasons out of 8. to me, he shouldn’t be a Type A.

that said, the process by which players are assigned Type A or B is somewhat mysterious to me; it certainly isn’t clear-cut. so maybe we’ll get lucky.

by kindred on Jul 7, 2008 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

agreed

how jorge julio was type B and octavio dotel was nothing coming into this season is beyond me. the ONLY visible edges julio had were:

1) dotel is three years older
2) julio has 99 career saves to dotel’s 82

in every other way than those, dotel was clearly the better pitcher. but i don’t work for elias sports bureau, i guess.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on Jul 7, 2008 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think it's just the last 2 year average, not the whole career

I can’t remember the specific source for that, but think it may have been MLB.com. Not sure how that would impact Lohse???

by birdo rojo on Jul 8, 2008 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Editorial Notes.
  • I couldn’t agree more that the teams that seem to do well with compensation picks are “smart” organizations who are not afraid to sign & develop young talent.
  • I also loved the Hampton for Heilman & Wright one. Personally think Hampton is the most unfortunate free agent signing ever.
  • I also like how the A’s gave up Frank Thomas for one year, got a decent OF prospect in the draft & then re-signed Thomas after the Jays cut him. Funny.
  • I didn’t realize just how infrequent the Cardinals signed “big name” free agents during the “00’s. Kennedy is the only one on the list.
  • The Izzy signing worked out pretty well for us, huh?
  • Apparently the Rangers are attempting something similar to the Red Sox in ‘04 with their ‘07 draft… Hopefully for them it works out as well as it has so far for the Sox

Boomer.

by glamboomer on Jul 7, 2008 12:37 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

point of clarification

when a team signs a player who is a type A or B, the supplemental pick is a “created” pick that does not force the player’s new team to forfeit a pick. in the case of a type B, a supplemental pick is the only one awarded. however, in the case of a type A, the player’s new team forfeits their first round pick to the player’s former team in addition to the supplementary pick – unless the new team’s first round pick is in the top 15, in which case it is “protected” and the former team gets their second round pick instead.

i realize it’s not possible to make an apples-to-apples comparison in this case, but i wouldn’t consider the more recent type B signings as “trades” per se – after all, it’s not like the cardinals would’ve had the 58th pick in the ‘07 draft if they hadn’t signed kennedy.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on Jul 7, 2008 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

hmm, that sounded overcritical

...i’m not trying to sound like i’m trying to start an argument, because this is a fantastic post. it was obviously very well-researched and somewhat eye-opening to see some of the names that are included on the draft pick side. just wanted to add to the discussion here really.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on Jul 7, 2008 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No offense taken.

You just clarified some information.
Thanks.

Boomer.

by glamboomer on Jul 7, 2008 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great post

But a question on how a player’s FA Type is figured. Is it merely for that season’s results? Or, three-year totals?

Who is that National on your photo?

by bgh on Jul 8, 2008 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Explanation.

Unfortunately the “process” of evaluating the statistics by Elias is really vague. I still can’t figure out how we got a Type B for 1/2 year of Troy Percival who hadn’t pitched for 2 years prior…. MLB GM’s seem to know beforehand who will or will not be compensatory free agents but they don’t spill the beans to us commoners. I did find this link which provides some useful information….

The National in the picture is a giant Elijah Dukes emerging from a cornfield.
I would explain my fascination with Mr. Dukes & will on request but it would probably take too long to really get into it here.

Thanks for asking though. I’m from Maquoketa, IA so judging from your avatar, we share a common lineage!

Boomer.

by glamboomer on Jul 8, 2008 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i'm intrigued.

from outward impressions, dukes strikes me as a young milton bradley.

“you dead, dawg.”

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on Jul 8, 2008 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm wondering out loud

What impact do you all think this system has on the free agent market? Does it help to depress the market for fa’s? It seems to me that there is a pretty strong disincentive against signing your own here. For Type B’s, it seems there is a built-in incentive for someone else to sign the talent. For Type A’s, it seems there is a fairly strong disincentive for anybody. Now clearly a Type A is cream of the crop, so they are still going to get a decent contract, but it still seems like this system may serve to keep the markets from getting too overheated. Not making an editorial on all this, just an observation I’ve had. If I’m wrong, could someone explain to me what I am missing? And if I am right, how on earth did the MLBPA agree to something like this?

by Merry CRasmus on Jul 7, 2008 2:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Offering arbitration

Great article and comments, everybody. The only thing I have to add is the fact that in order for a team to receive draft-pick compensation, they have to offer the player arbitration and the player must decline. Just as an example of the dilemma, let’s say Lohse duplicates his first-half success and wins 20 games, pricing him out of the Cardinals’ payroll. Once free agency begins, the Cards can hope some other team signs him before the deadline to offer arbitration (something like December 7). In that case, they would get the draft picks and a fantastic year from Lohse for $4 million. If he isn’t signed by the deadline, they have to make the decision on whether or not to offer arbitration. If they’re positive Lohse wants a long-term deal right now, they can feel secure in offering arbitration and having him decline. However, if he isn’t getting the offers from other teams he likes or he wouldn’t mind spending another year in St. Louis for an inflated 20-game-winner salary, the Cards could be stuck paying $12 million or more just because they wanted draft picks. A 20-game winner going to arbitration is a rare case, but say the Cardinals still have Adam Kennedy when he’s eligible for free agency and picks up his play to qualify as a Type B free agent. Would you risk offering arbitration and having another year of Kennedy at around $4 million in hopes of getting a draft pick, or just cut him. It’s always a risk, but can be worth it. How did we get 2008 draft pick Lance Lynn? He was compensation for losing Troy Percival, who we pulled out of retirement with our large contingency of ex-Angels. He helped solidify the bullpen, left to go close games in Tampa, and we get a 1st round sandwich pick in Lynn, the ultimate, 250-pound sandwich pick, who obviously doesn’t hold the mayo and extra cheese on his sandwich picks.

by Magnum, P.A. on Jul 7, 2008 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good point.

Thanks for the addition.

Boomer.

by glamboomer on Jul 7, 2008 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the thing i don't get in this process

is the timeframe in which a player has to decide whether or not to accept arbitration. i’m guessing that’s soon after the teams’ deadline? if it weren’t you’d have players testing the market for months before choosing to accept. so maybe i just answered my own question.

if the cards don’t offer lohse arbitration they’re crazy. don’t forget that we set a base this season by signing him for $4 million this season – it’s not like he’s a first-year arb-eligible player and due for a raise, he’s been at around that level for almost four seasons now. i figure at the absolute worst case scenario – unless the guy gets even better in the second half and wins the cy young or something – he won’t get more than double his 2008 salary from the arbiter.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on Jul 7, 2008 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

right...

... Lohse ain’t getting $12mn in arbitration. the record is $10mn, set by Soriano and tied by Howard. i would expect the Cards to say $4-6mn and Lohse to counter with ~ $8mn (at the most). he’d probably be worth $8mn on a one-year deal even if he isn’t quite so good as he’s been this year (i.e. even if he regresses to his career league-average level), so it’d be stupid for the Cards not to offer arb even if they get stuck with him.

by the time Kennedy’s contract is up he won’t be a Type B, so there’s no point in worrying about that.

by kindred on Jul 7, 2008 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

3rd/4th year players

You can’t use Howard and Soriano as examples for what teams must pay a veteran, 20-game winner in arbitration because Howard and Soriano were not yet eligible for free agency. Their salaries, while records for arbitration, were depressed because traditionally younger players make much less money. If that standard was broken by awarding young, arbitration eligible players the same amount of money they could get on the free-agent market, the system would be broken. The system is getting close to broken now as you see more and more teams taking the risk of giving long-term contracts to their players with only one and two years of experience. But with Lohse, he was expected to command the same 4-year, $40 million contract that Carlos Silva got. Thankfully, no one gave it to him. But Lohse, as a veteran eligible for free agency, can use every bad contract given out to any pitcher who underperforms as leverage to say he pitched better than him and get the $12 million. The arbitrator just needs to decide what the fair value of a veteran, free-agency-eligible 20-game winner for a single year is, not what the player has made in the past.

by Magnum, P.A. on Jul 7, 2008 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

no way...

... you cannot convince me that Lohse, if he went to arbitration (which he never would), would command a greater salary than Howard or Soriano regardless of service time. that is an insane argument.

you say i “can’t use Howard and Soriano” because of differences in service time. but if i can’t use as examples the two highest-ever arb cases, regardless of service time, then what can i use? Kyle freaking Lohse isn’t breaking the all-time arb record, 20 wins or no.

position players tend to command more in arb cases than pitchers anyway. Santana would’ve gotten more than $10mn, but Lohse won’t. he won’t even ask for that much. my guess is that he’d be closer to half that if it actually came down to a judgment. something like $6-7mn. keep in mind… we’ve already pretty well established that Lohse isn’t even going to be a Type A FA. is a Type B going to break the arb record? no chance, and not even close.

by kindred on Jul 7, 2008 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

clemens

almost went to arb a few years ago. his asking price was something insane, that would’ve broken the arb award record very easily. so it’s not entirely based on previous arbitration cases. magnum is right, it’s based on fair market value, but lohse set his value by signing at $4 million for one year this year. so if that’s the case his value can’t triple in the span of a year. it doesn’t matter what he was supposed to sign for last offseason.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on Jul 8, 2008 7:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

and fwiw

i don’t believe there’s a chance in hell lohse accepts arbitration.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on Jul 8, 2008 7:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

I would guess that even the Cardinals might offer him a 4 year $30-$40 million deal before it got to arbitration. I would easily be comfortable offering him something like that, not that he’d take it, since there would have to be a team offering him more than that after a good season in St. Louis. I would NOT offer him a contract of more than 4 years. I don’t think it’s wise to offer any pitcher on the verge of 30 a contract longer than that because it’s all guaranteed money, and pitchers get hurt all too often.

If he were to win 16 games, which seems likely given that he’s got 10 already, I would guess his arbitration number would be around $8 million or so. He’d be looking for 5-6 guaranteed years at around $10-$12 million per, just like he was last year.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jul 8, 2008 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Type A free agents are an advantage to sign

to teams that finish in the bottom 15 since they don’t lose their first round pick. But other than that, I think you’re right and I don’t know although I guess there were other factors that went into the associations favor. Like changing Type A to top 20% as opposed to top 30% and the whole sign-and-watch thing that got thrown out the window this year.

by Tackle Box on Jul 7, 2008 3:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

drat

reply to Merry CRasmus

by Tackle Box on Jul 7, 2008 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Freddy Garcia

If Freddy could come in pitch decently, what kind of type of free agent would he be?

If he is going to be a Type A then I think the Cards really need to focus in on him and if he is Type B consider him.

by AP5 on Jul 7, 2008 5:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

no chance

of him being an A due to the large quantity of time he’s missed. i suppose he could be considered type B due to his career record (as he was last season) but that seems highly doubtful due to the amount of time missed over the past two seasons.

as for signing garcia, meh. we’ve got enough cash invested in guys who aren’t pitching now and may or may not be effective this season.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on Jul 7, 2008 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My favorite

The Cubs sign Mike Remlinger and Atlanta takes Jo-Jo Reyes and Jarrod Saltalamacchia with the picks, and they swapped Salty for Teixiera to boot.

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on Jul 7, 2008 8:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

look at the yankees...

they got their top 3 MLB-ready pitching prospects (hughes, joba, and kennedy) by losing tom gordon and andy pettitte

by bigmcq16 on Jul 7, 2008 11:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Kind of sheds light on how the Yankees could rebuild, eh?

Everyone knows the Yankees always have a lot of good veterans…they could probably end up with some very good talent if they just let some of them walk. In 05, the Red Sox lets Pedro, O-Cab, and Lowe walk and ended up with what seems like an entire minor league system.

by mojowo11 on Jul 8, 2008 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You also have to be able to draft well, though

You have to execute at the draft, which the Sawks have done recently

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on Jul 8, 2008 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, of course

You’d also have to offer them arbitration and have them decline it, which only works if the player plans on leaving for greener pastures anyway. Not many places offer greener (monetary) pastures than the Yankees. So maybe not as easy as it sounds. But still, you get my point.

by mojowo11 on Jul 8, 2008 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And that's becomimg less of a green pasture

The Yankees don’t seem so eager anymore to just outbid everyone like they once did.

by Tackle Box on Jul 8, 2008 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i like how wainwright

was picked as compensation for springer, and now they’re teammates.
and look at the chris perez for matt morris, that really paid dividends quickly!

by PolancoMcEwing on Jul 8, 2008 2:24 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Excellent Post

That’s just the perfect serving of refreshingly non-overly technical information to peruse over a sandwich with a semi-non-comatose brain before a terminal at lunch. I’d pay for that everyday at the crack of afternoon. Thanks!

Other mysteries remain. TL

by BKKCard on Jul 8, 2008 12:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

You're Welcome!

Glad you liked it.

Boomer.

by glamboomer on Jul 8, 2008 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Excellent work

Thank you.

Interesting to see that 3 of our top 10 prospects at this point - Raz, Mort, Perez - are all guys we got in “exchange” for free agents (2 of whom we have more or less happily lived without)

by tdawg on Jul 8, 2008 4:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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