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eckstein on the market. how about 2B?  heh.

per this recent baltimore sun report the O's are in talks with toronto to cheaply acquire eckstein for partial filling of the void tejada left them at SS.  their interest in shoring up on infielders would seem to indicate that a roberts trade is even less likely as well.

eckstein's career slash stats are .285/.352/.361.  this year he's putting up .273/.360/.348, a reduction in AVG but an improvement in OBP which also increases his hit/walk differential.  this could indicate increased plate discipline, and his pitches per plate appearance for 2008 stand at 3.9 so far.  for some historical record, he has been 3.8, 4.0, 3.8, and 3.6 across the last four years.  i take 3.9 as a good sign, especially compared to last year, and his plate discipline stats at fangraphs look well within career levels so i think it might be chalked up to simply working counts better.

eckstein is remarkably balanced against RHP and LHP with a respective career .350 and .355 OBP against.  miles is .318 and .352, kennedy is .334 and .307  miles is doing well this year, but i don't think we're going to see him every day.  the platoon should persist, i'm sure at least partially because neither option we currently have is considered to be a complete player.

if we did get eckstein for a bargain-basement rate i think he would start every day.  i would expect his overall defense to improve at this position as well, with reduced critical emphasis on range as well as a shorter throwing distance to 1B.  at his age, i simply think 2B seems like a more natural position for him wherever he might play.

i find it hard to holistically compare -defense and +offense between eckstein and kennedy, but for what it's worth i'd gladly accept kennedy off the 40-man roster, miles retaining utility status, and eckstein starting every day.  i'm sure STL fans in general would love it too, but there's the whole personal issue of him being jacked around - especially since he'll be a free agent again at the end of this season.  for practical reasons such as that and 2009's sunk cost on kennedy i don't think any of this is likely to be seriously considered, but it was at least fun for me to think about it.

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Points about this

1. I don’t think he’s on the best of terms with Cardinals brass.
2. Kennedy’s sunk cost mean paying twice for the same position.
3. I think the Jays are shopping him so they can get something back. Anything is too much.
4. Ryan is a much better option.
5. His defense is apparently horrible—the same reason he wasn’t re-signed last winter.

Though he’s a somewhat better hitter than Kennedy, he’s probably a negative VORP due to his defense. I just don’t see it.

by Red in Chicago on Jul 5, 2008 3:19 PM EDT reply actions  

I don't want to bring back Eck...

but regarding point #2, what Kennedy is making shouldn’t matter, because as you say, it’s a sunk cost. If we can find a better 2B to take his roster spot for a reasonable price, then we should do it. I would like this opportunity to once again pimp the return of Grudz for 3 months.

by mikedallas45 on Jul 5, 2008 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

I second that

Give me Grudzy. He’d be a great addition.

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on Jul 5, 2008 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

well, if we’re talking about gifts then give me utley! :) i’m not aware of any plans by the royals to move grudzielanek, and if they were i presume that it would come at a non-trivial price. he’s five years older than eckstein and has a career .290/.333/.396 line compared to eckstein’s .285/.352/.361. the most important number to me is the middle one, OBP, and grudz is less even against RHP putting up .288/.328/.391. i trust he’d be defensively superior, but non-cheap, FA at 2008, old, and low OBP are a lot of factors to fade. i’d gladly take him if he were free or cheap though, of course.

FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG

by astrostl on Jul 5, 2008 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

why wouldn't he be cheap?

His type are not extremely high commodities. He never had a high asking price as a younger player, and now he’s much older. Plus, he’s on the Royals who really don’t need a player like him right now. They’d be much better off with someone ten years younger.

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on Jul 6, 2008 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

toronto is openly stating that eckstein is on the market, and it is clear that they have too many infielders. i am not aware of the royals making any such statements about grudzielanek, nor have i heard that they’re in a similar situation. if we have to make a market-value trade for eckstein, i wouldn’t want it. if we have to make a market-value trade for grudzielanek, i wouldn’t want it. both only offer three months before free agency, in addition to the other warts. the eckstein option interests me because there is a declaration of CHEAP and AVAILABLE right at the outset.

FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG

by astrostl on Jul 6, 2008 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

1: alluded to in my OP. agreed. i don’t know how much of a factor this might realistically be. i’d like to think that both sides could view it in a business perspective, and i imagine that eckstein has come to realize that his leash isn’t as long as he thought it might be after apparently struggling to find a starting role on any team after leaving the cards and now in the process of getting shuffled. humility could carry him.

2: also mentioned, but like the other poster i agree that a sunk cost is by definition sunk. on a point of trivia it may come down to paying twice for the same position, but kennedy’s checks are effectively cashed; the only task that remains is to field the best team we can given market and budget conditions.

3: i don’t know how much the jays are asking, but i’m sure there are options between free and his remaining contract that you might find agreeable. you never know what they want side – perhaps it’s kelvin jiminez!

4: there’s only one area where i feel ryan is a reasonably trusted commodity, and that’s playing SS against LHP; he’s putting up .227/.281/.319 against RHP for his short ML career. i don’t know where to find historical minor league splits, but i’d be curious to see how bad his differential was down there. defensively he has one (1) minor league game at 2B and 30 in the majors. eckstein hasn’t played 2B for a long time, but he at least has a history of it: 257/263 of his minor league games were at 2B.

5: i would not want eckstein to play shortstop, and presume that an izturis/ryan platoon could provide more wins for the team. in 2007 eckstein ranked near the bottom of the league in RZR. i trust 2B to require less range to be effective, though, and i would expect his errors to decrease as a result of less distance to throw. i think we could both agree that it’s a less defensively demanding position.

as for VORP, i’m not much for BP’s proprietary stats but that one only factors offense. WARP seems to be contested by tangotiger, among others, so i’m even less likely to trust it but it’s one of their attempts at a stat that factors everything. for 2007 eckstein was a VORP/WARP 20.7/3.7, ryan was 8.2/1.6.

FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG

by astrostl on Jul 5, 2008 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

VORP/WARP are counting stats

and eckstein got over 3x as many PA’s as ryan last year. So if you’re going to use those to compare, you have to scale. instead, use VORPr, which is a “rate” version. Eckstein beat Ryan still, but only .182 to .176, which is in the noise, and with Ryan’s superior fielding he surely easily outpaced Eckstein.

Then again, ryan isn’t as good as his numbers last year (or as bad as his numbers this year).

"If thats bad luck, lets DFA our luck away." -DriverZN

by SleepyCA on Jul 6, 2008 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

i’d prefer to not use any of their stats, but i earnestly appreciate the clarification :)

FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG

by astrostl on Jul 6, 2008 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

no.

I am the only/last Anthony Reyes fan!

by dangpenguins on Jul 5, 2008 4:10 PM EDT reply actions  

hypothetical lineup with no other major changes

eckstein 2B
schumaker/barton LF (platoon)
pujols 1B
glaus 3B
ludwick RF
ankiel CF
molina C
pitcher P
izturis/ryan SS (platoon)

FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG

by astrostl on Jul 5, 2008 4:45 PM EDT reply actions  

to me, that does little improvement if any.

I like Schu leading off for us, and don’t see why we’d need to change that.

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on Jul 6, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

it’s first and foremost a quest to plug a hole in the middle infield, not to find a leadoff hitter. than being said, skip is hitting .206/.280/.215 against LHP for his limited major league career so i would consider eckstein a more proven and everyday choice for leadoff – at least until skip gets more at-bats to prove things out one way or the other.

FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG

by astrostl on Jul 6, 2008 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I saw on MLBTR...

the other day and had the same thoughts. The only issue IMO is whether Eckstein will deal with Mo after last offseason. Also we can’t give up much to get him. I’d like to have him back… Unfortunately the platoon idea for Iz2 and Ryan won’t work:

Iz2 vs. LHP – .279/.364/.368 – 68 AB’s
Iz2 vs. RHP – .220/.288/.283 – 127 AB’s

by cardzfanbub on Jul 5, 2008 6:44 PM EDT reply actions  

izturis has a larger career sample: .255/.296/.329 vs RHP and .266/.300/.342 vs LHP. if defensive analysis yields conclusions similar to 2008 RZR data – that ryan is defensively similar to izturis – i would be content to let him play through all of it by himself sans platoon, especially if his minor league splits were to show less weakness to RHP. i’m just going with what i think are the least boat-rocking lineup moves outside of this roster change, and it seems unlikely that they’d tell izturis to stuff it. i could see reduced games after he comes off the DL, though, and it seems like a logical substitution for that context.

FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG

by astrostl on Jul 5, 2008 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

following on this winter's suggestion by several posters

we would have been better off today with zobrist at short. is he worth franklin? he was today

If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, perhaps you haven't grasped the situation!

by sportsman on Jul 5, 2008 9:44 PM EDT reply actions  

His arm isn’t strong enough to play second base. When turning the double play he has to throw across his body with his momentum going away from first base, and I don’t think he can pull it off.
I’d rather see Miles/Ryan get those at bats as well.

by adiueordie on Jul 5, 2008 9:54 PM EDT reply actions  

so much for sentiment

even before digesting astro’s prosecutoral analysis I was on page with seeing Eck come back… but only only ONLY as a platoon piece at second base. No SS under any circumstances, thank you {I think even Miles covers more ground, and that’s saying something.}
Also… mikedallas is tugging my heart, too (there is a small group of us)... we love the Grudz.

I still think letting Grudz walk a few years ago and not seriously trying Eck at 2b this year were two big mistakes. That, and other factors, stew in the pot and what we got, and have had for a few months, is a really messed up MI situation.

All that said, the nay-sayers, above, have stilled my ‘heart’ —both Eck and Grudz are old and would cost too much.
Still and all I hope we don’t forfeit a chance to get to the palyoffs because we never settle the MI mess. My own personal choice is to play B. Ryan virtually every day, but even that might not be a solution.

by the Tewk on Jul 5, 2008 10:22 PM EDT reply actions  

quoth the article that started these thoughts, “he has become expendable” and “Because of the glut of middle infielders, the Blue Jays’ asking price for Eckstein isn’t expected to be too high.” i don’t know what the actual price is, of course, but i wouldn’t have even started this chain of thought if i thought it would be anywhere close to the remainder of his full contract year.

i heard from a borderline source that the organization approached eckstein about playing 2B before he reached free agency, and that he refused the reassignment. seems strange given that kennedy had two more years and presumably had no trade value. but even if true, i think eckstein’s perspective might have changed by now.

FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG

by astrostl on Jul 5, 2008 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

if he did

I’d have to guess it was due to his personal relationship with kennedy, since he was set to sign with the mets to be their second baseman at one point.

"If thats bad luck, lets DFA our luck away." -DriverZN

by SleepyCA on Jul 6, 2008 1:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

Where does everyone get the idea that

a player can just go and play second base? It really is a tough position and very hard on the body. That’s why most 2nd basemen don’t last much past 30. I don’t see Ecksten being able to handle the position for more than an emergency time or two.

Why would he want to come back here anyway? They played “phone tag” with his agent instead of having the decency to tell him thanks, but we’re heading in a different direction. My own opinion is Eckstein can no longer play in the field. Let him be.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Jul 6, 2008 11:14 AM EDT reply actions  

i don’t believe that anyone can effectively play second base. i think shortstop is a harder position to play that second base, and i think a shortstop would have the easiest transition of all other position players to playing second. as i noted in another post, david eckstein came through the system as a second basemen – virtually all of his minor league games were also played at the position. take those things, add rumors of him playing there in 2008 for various teams, and i think you’ve got an idea that isn’t exactly a reach.

you seem to disagree on defensive, age, and psychological merits – which is fine. i don’t think i’ve suggested anything irrational, though, or suggested that we ask fred bird to play the position.

FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG

by astrostl on Jul 6, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

first sentence should be “just anyone”, i think :)

FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG

by astrostl on Jul 6, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fair enough.

I do think they should look elsewhere…......

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Jul 6, 2008 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

see above

you’re not the only one.

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on Jul 6, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

.299/.373/.405 over 264 AAA 2B ABs is certainly interesting to me. i don’t know the reason we haven’t seen him, but i don’t track the minors outside of numbers. good question to ask someone from futureredbirds.

FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG

by astrostl on Jul 6, 2008 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

i do speak for the past on that though; burning a prospect option this close to september is a real decision, and we’ve still got miles and even ryan as non-kennedy 2Bs. but just looking at the numbers, i would like to have seen hoffpauir sooner. we were winning, though, kennedy had a good april, etc. it’s seldom easy. eckstein is someone i know they WOULD play if they had him, and that’s part of what factors into my curiosity.

FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG

by astrostl on Jul 6, 2008 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

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