Carpenter Pitch F/x Quick Take
To summarize: his stuff is basically back:
- Fastball averaged 91.5, -7.86 horizontal, 6.28 vertical
- Cutter 87.0, 1.83 horizontal, 5.38 vertical
- Curve 73.3, 7.26 horizontal, -8.00 vertical
- Change, 83.8, -7.3 horizontal, 7.46 vertical
The velocity obviously is encouraging and as he builds arm strength I can still see him picking up even a full mph. I already loved his cutter to an unnatural degree, but imagine facing two pitches that come in on nearly the same plane from the same arm action and relatively close velocity......and then end up nearly 10 inches apart. Good luck. And then you have to watch out for a sweeping curve that breaks 8 inches down. Oh and then he's added a "pitchable" changeup throwing it a little less than 10% last night. Not a big fan that it has the 7.46 vertical movement (more than the fastball....god knows how he's doing that) but it's his 4th pitch and a hitter would be a fool to be sitting on that so it's going to play up.
I love watching Carpenter pitch. I can't wait till he gets his command back.
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Doesn't really throw one and it certainly doesn't show up in the data
He might “come around” the cutter to make it more slider-y but it’s not intentional and it’s not a different pitch. Slowest cutter was 85.3 which is right in the continuum of those…
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
by joker24 on Jul 31, 2008 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i don't agree w/ that, joker
the slider is part of his repertoire, at least per fangraphs — http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1292&position=P. those numbers aren’t based on pitch/FX data, though; i think it’s based on scouting / direct observation.
look at the break on the pitch he threw to francouer ending the 3rd inning. there’s a distinct downward break on it — totally different-looking break from the cutters he threw. pitch/FX data backs that up — the vertical break on that pitch is greater than the horizontal break, and the speed is a tick slower than the cutter. pitch/FX picked up his cutter at 87-88 for most of the game, with a horizontal break of roughly 6 inches; but there were 3 or 4 pitches that had both a shorter horizontal break and a slower speed (85-86 mph). i think that’s a different pitch, as opposed to just a variant on the cutter.
by lboros on Aug 1, 2008 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
weird, that fangraphs link
goes to his hitting page . . . . . let’s try that again
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1292&position=P
by lboros on Aug 1, 2008 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm
I’ve always just seen that as a variation of the cutter also (you’re not alone, joker), so that’s interesting. I’ll have to see if I can catch the difference with my naked eye from now on.
by mojowo11 on Aug 1, 2008 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
having done some reading
it looks like there’s divided opinion on the subject. the James / Neyer guide to pitchers (2004) does list slider as one of Carpenter’s pitches (distinct from the cutter), but they also note that most sources do not list the slider. the scouting reports on Fox and CBS Sportsline also hedge bets - Sportsline quotes a scout who describes Carpenter’s slider as “more of a cutter.”
on the other hand, this 2005 article by Joe Strauss (probably a P-D story that went out over the wire) listed cutter, slider, and curveball as separate pitches. it might be one of those “eye of the beholder” things.
by lboros on Aug 1, 2008 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone's guess.....
Sometimes people call a pitch a slider just because it has similar velocity and movement. The pitcher may not consider it a slider based on his grip…
I think it gets hard to categorize pitches at times.
by ICbirdfan on Aug 1, 2008 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Carp's Cutter?
I looked at some tape from the game Wed.
I saw a pitch at 87 with a more vertical break that I would call a slider. I saw a pitch at 86 with a more horizontal break that could be called a cutter.
However, the difference is subtle.
by thepainguy on Aug 3, 2008 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We haven't been agreeing much lately...
That/those pitch is right in the continuum of his cutters and fangraphs is wrong. If you have thrown a cutter it just happens from time to time where you get too far off the side of the ball and you end up throwing a more slider-y pitch. The Francouer pitch was 86.9 mph 4.2 inches in Z-axis, .959 in X-axis. Sliders have more “tilt” than that and there’s no way Carpenter, whose fastball was 90-93, is taking 3 mph off while turning the door knob.
Aside from the fact that I think that is a cutter anyway, the fact that his cutter breaks so much it’d be dumb to have a separate slider that is such a similar pitch. The pitches would bump heads as it were. Matsuzaka is someone who has a slider and a cutter and there isn’t too big a question of which is which.
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
by joker24 on Aug 1, 2008 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
can't always agree about everything
that’d be boring. . . . if you have access to MLB.tv, cue up the game and watch the break on the pitch to francouer. then watch the standard cutter, which he threw about 15 times. the breaks don’t look the same at all. the pitch to francouer dove down to his ankles; the cutter didn’t have nearly that much downward movement.
as i noted above, there seems to be some confusion about whether carp throws a true slider or not. but if he doesn’t, and the cutter/slider are the same pitch, then i wonder why joe strauss wrote this sentence in the 2005 article i linked above:
“Carpenter’s sinking fastball is his dominant pitch. But lately, his cutter, slider and curveball have been just as effective.”
strauss travels w/ the team and talks regularly to pitchers, catchers, the pitching coach . . . . . . and in 2005, he was under the impression that Carpenter’s cutter and slider were distinct pitches. maybe he was mistaken; i’ll allow that’s a possibility. i think wha’t s more likely is that we’re having a semantic disagreement — he has two ways to keep the ball away from a right-handed hitter, and they’re either two different pitches (w/ distinct grips and distinct action) or they’re variations on a single pitch.
by lboros on Aug 1, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
It’s semantical in the sense that he’ll throw pitch that are--at least—as much slider as they are cutter yes (after all they’re nearly the same pitch as is), my point is that the pitches in that category aren’t intentional. It’s inevitable with the mechanics of throwing a cutter that you come around one from time to time that will behave like that. I still contend there’s no way he’s throwing an 87 mph slider, that’s just not possible. That’s Felix Hernandez territory and he’s got Carp by about 5 mph on the fastball…
The real way to solve this question would be to look at what Molina is calling for with the bases empty——I’ll bet there’s only 1 finger fastball, 2 curve, 3 cutter, 4 wiggling changeup…
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
by joker24 on Aug 1, 2008 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i see your point joker
and you may be right. there are some pretty good sources (neyer / james, fangraphs, strauss) who think carpenter does, or did, throw a slider in addition to a cutter, but that’s not a universal perspective. the pitch to francouer wednesday night certainly looked like a slider - i concede that 87 mph is a pretty hard slider, but wellemeyer’s slider comes in at about 87, and his fastball (as a starter, anyway) is only 1 or 2 mph faster than carp’s.
re your suggestion about yadi’s signals, i’ll run a little test. when i charted wednesday’s game, i used gameday first — making my own judgments on the pitch type (gameday erroneously designated most of the cutters as sliders). then i watched the start on mlb.tv, as a check - and i decided that 4 of the pitches i had coded “cutter” had behaved like sliders. all 4 had slightly different break profiles on gameday, so i changed their designation on my chart.
two of those pitches came with the bases empty — i’ll go back to mlb.tv and look at yadi’s signals on those two pitches to see if they’re different from his signal for the cutter.
by lboros on Aug 1, 2008 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
just went back and looked
on one of the two pitches (pitch #64, the strikeout of jurrjens in the 4th), you can’t see the signal — they didn’t cut to the centerfield shot until carp was already in the windup. on the other pitch (#59, the 3rd pitch to corky miller in the 4th inning) you don’t get a very good look, just a glimpse.
mlb.tv always uses the home-game feed, so i’m looking at the atlanta broadcast; if anybody happened to TiVo the st. louis feed of the game and has a chance to look, please do so. otherwise i guess we’ll have to wait for carpenter’s next start.
by lboros on Aug 1, 2008 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
good news
I wish I had been able to SEE him, tho. Numbers aside, I know Carp eats nails for breakfast and can sometimes find a way to get an out, even if he doesn’t have all his skills working.
After the Mulder debacle, this really helps wipe away the bad taste. Poor Mulder is a finesse type (that is, more exclusively so than a Carp or a Wainer) thus if he can’t pitch, he can’t pitch. Carpenter can still be effective even at less than 100% (attitude and range of tools in his favor.)
I’m hoping for and expecting a similar pattern with Adam W.
As a question… where the h* is Matt Clement ?
by the Tewk on Jul 31, 2008 10:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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