Give Mozeliak some credit!
This is my first post - I'm an avid reader. I think we should give Mozeliak some props considering we are approaching the all star break and the trade rumors are heating up again.
It has been a while since spring training, but I watched mlbtraderumors and the blogs religiously during the winter meetings/offseason. The entire time I was pretty disappointed - and I'm sure I wasn't alone. I wanted to see some very specific action to improve what was a pretty terrible team last year. Outstanding starting pitching - I wanted a trade. Impact bat - I wanted a trade. Nothing really happened that I considered significant.
This is from memory (since I'm lazy and at work), but Mozeliak said a number of things in spring and during the early season that we should validate with the half season results.
- We will be competitive.
- We won't trade Rolen to the Brewers for Dave Bush (action more than words).
- We don't need an impact bat, we have internal options. (Hello Ryan Ludwick!)
- Our starting pitching will be exciting to watch (although we aren't adding starters every month as predicted).
- We will have a surplus to trade with at starting pitching and the outfield.
That is all I can come up with without searching the news archives. However, lets give Mo some credit. He is a solid 3 out of 5, and may yet be right on starters coming back and dealing from a surplus with the starting pitching. We'll see.
He nailed the Rolen trade - pretty impressive. He scouted Ludwick at Colorado (although Ryan didn't play when he went to watch), so I have to think he had him on a short list (but that is my opinion) and may have been involved in signing him. And the cards are more than competitive this year.
On the same note, we are approaching the trade deadline and many people are yelling for Mo to trade Duncan. First, give Mo and La Russa credit for staying with Duncan - the guy looks to be coming out of his customary half season slump. If he can hit 20 homers in the second half, look out. It looks like both Glaus and Ankiel are hitting the long ball - those three can be pretty imposing when coupled with the Mang.
However, I'm sick of seeing the fan posts that list Reyes and Duncan as great trade chips and tout Mather over Duncan. Mather is unproved. Reyes is injured and has been REALLY BAD in the big leagues, minus one Detroit start and one world series start. The only way he gets traded is if the cards are willing to sell low - and every team is slobbering to buy low on someone with Reyes perceived ability. That means we get crap in return, unless we get someone with as high a risk/reward back in return. We aren't going to trade Reyes and Duncan and get Fuentes, Nady, anyone worth what we want.
As for complaining about Duncan - he is in an elite club with Pujols as the only Cardinal to hit 20 or more homers in their first 2 full seasons. Duncan has also hit consistently at the major league level. I hate nepotism as much as the next guy, but Duncan could stand on his own in any organization in the big leagues.
Look at Daric Barton's stats - one of the chips in THAT trade - and you can see Duncan's first full year was incredibly superior (although Dunc was older).
Barton - http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/bartoda02.shtml
Duncan - http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/duncach01.shtml
While Barton is not an outfielder (is Duncan?), I think that Oakland would love to have Duncan's first year as a major leaguer over Barton's first full year so far.
My point? Mozeliak is building legitimacy. I'm willing to trust the guy a little more now based on this half season. Also, the trade deadline is coming, and the rumors are starting to pile up. Matt Holiday? Fuentes? What I've seen from Mo says no way to selling the farm for either of these guys.
I would guess if a deal is done it will be from a position of strength - catcher and outfield. I would guess that we will see Anderson or one of our outfield (maybe even Skip or Ludwick) traded for a cost controlled lefty, not a rental. And we should be looking at teams that have a desire for either catcher or outfield. I will rate outfield higher - Anderson is not ready for a role in the big leagues yet, so he is not a typical 'shore up a position for a playoff run' type trade.
Here is my prediction - an active roster outfielder and a prospect or two for a cost controlled lefty. I would guess Rays, but you never know. Who else needs outfileders?
I could be wrong, but so far Mo has been above average and we should give him some trust going into the trade deadline.
36 comments
|
6 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
mad props
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 3, 2008 7:37 PM EDT reply actions
Every player is unproved
until they spend time in the majors. That’s such a tired and illogical argument. It speaks nothing about whether Mather would actually produce if he got time in the majors.
Also, Duncan has a “customary half season slump”? If you “slump” for half a season could we just say they’re a crappy player? And do we want someone, who as you said, does that on a yearly basis?
followup
Has duncan hit consistently in the majors? I think the word “consistency” is tossed around without anyone really giving more than a vague nod toward it’s meaning but a .715 OPS does not strike me as consistent.
Not really
He’s proven to be awful streaky. Consistency may not be the approriate word, and I don’t want to speak for the guy, but I think he may be saying there is some history that would indicate he’s a better hitter than he’s shown thus far. He goes on to point out that if we deal him, it’s selling at a low point. If that is the nexus of his argument, I happen to agree with him. At least as it pertains to Duncan – I think this Reyes situation has run its course and it is best for all parties to move on even if we don’t “win” the deal.
I personally don’t think we are there with Duncan and think we need to hold out for return on him. And, to the authors point, that isn’t likely to happen until (if?) he turns it around. If not completely, then at least after he has had a couple more weeks like the last one.
I can appreciate the other side of the argument, but just don’t happen to agree with it. “Sell low” was mentioned. The stock analogy works for me. Trading Duncan now would be akin to dumping a stock after it has missed its earning estimates for the first time and lost 50% of its value. Maybe it make sense to sell the stock….maybe the earnings miss is an indicator of everyone misjudging the value all along. But it could also be something simple that the company can correct, and selling then makes you look foolish and reactionary later on.
If you think Duncan won’t regain a power stroke, and continue with a .715 OPS, then it makes sense to unload him for anything you can get. Which isn’t much right now. I suspect his line from last year will be pretty indicitive of his norm, so I’d hold him until you can get a better return.
by Merry CRasmus on Jul 3, 2008 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions
duncan had a heck of a first second half.
and a heck of a first first half. It was his second second half and then his second first half that were rather slumpy.
"If thats bad luck, lets DFA our luck away." -DriverZN
hard to tell
I’ve been expecting him to break out sice midway through spring training, and he hasn’t done it, so it’s hard to get too excited about a good week or two. But his swing looks a lot better now than it did a month ago and even when he swings and misses it looks like he’s swinging with enthusiasm again…
"If thats bad luck, lets DFA our luck away." -DriverZN
Of course we would all agree
that we don’t want to sell low.
Virtually everyone was certain that TLR had totally destroyed Scott Rolen’s trade value. While he had to go, it looked like the Cardinals were going to have no other option but to move Rolen when his value was low. Looking at Troy Glaus’ performance thus far, it looks like we did pretty good selling low.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Good point
I was amazed Mo was able to pull off that deal when it happened, and Glaus has been better defensively than I expected. So far, that has to be the biggest feather in Mozeliak’s cap.
by Merry CRasmus on Jul 3, 2008 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions
that and getting lucky that Lohse was available
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 7, 2008 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
my point on Duncan is don't sell low
I’m not saying that Mather won’t be a quality big leaguer, it just may take a couple of years to develop him. Duncan, when hitting, is a legitimate power threat with a potential of hitting 30 HR per year. Is Duncan still developing? Either he is or his first two years are a fluke. Either way you are starting over with Mather or rasmus and it may take two or three years for either of them to reach their potential. Look at francour at Atlanta- third year and may get sent back down. Also look at skip – the typical big leaguer takes a few trips up and down before they hit full stride. Of course, you could also say that all skip needed was playing time, and I recognize that.
I’m trying to point out that there is less inherent risk in Duncan since he has a big league track record. Mather might be better, and he might be worse.
I forgot it was capuano. Is he on the DL? That would have made for a terrible deal.
My point – don’t sell low. And I think mo knows what he is doing.
jp
not trying to get an argument going
but I don’t see how Duncan has a big league track record, unless that track record is one of inconsistency. He might turn into a great hitter, but baseball history is littered with players that have had flashes of greatness in their first few seasons and then never turned into anything special.
I just don’t have a problem with selling low on Duncan. You can’t be certain that you will ever be able to sell high with him.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
The only problem with that..
is you’d be giving away something that we are going to be pining for later or paying a lot of money to in free agency. The same thing is true with Mulder – lets not cut bait until we are sure he won’t turn back into Mark Mulder.
Otherwise, we’d be the Blue Jays, who gave up on Carpenter after his shoulder surgery (dfa’d him to the minors, he elected free agency).
IF Duncan turns into a 30 HR power hitter, we’re all hacked that the cards dropped him. However, you just never know in baseball. He may be crap – if he proves that he is, dump him. He may need a change of scenery.
I would call hitting 20 HR in his first 2 seasons a track record. ESPECIALLY since that puts him in the same club that Albert Pujols is in as the only two cardinals to EVER hit 20 HR to start their career. While he sucked for 1/2 a season both years, we can’t just drop him now.
I’m not a huge fan of Duncan – I just think most fans don’t realize what we have in him, and no one really knows what he is yet. Throwing him away is not the answer at this point.
jp
A better question - what would you give up to trade for Duncan?
Not much right now. Same for Reyes. Duncan’s not making me look good tonight, either.
jp
hopefully optimistic
i love what Mo has done so far. i was uneasy goin into the season, granted most of the players were from previous years. i would rather have him make one trade before the break for a bullpen pitcher. hopefully by then we will have wagonmaker, carp, and lohse in good form. i will take that against the cubs or anybody in the NL in any series. I like walt did for us, but i dont like dumping players for a year and half rental. we’re in it, we need a little bit to close deals to catch the cubbie bears, and im likin MO more and more every day.
10.27.06..greatest day of my life
trade Reyes for nothin'...
... we owe the young man a new start.
as for other young under-performing players (Duncan, Ludwick the past 2 weeks, Ankiel the 2 weeks before that, Skipper the 2 weeks before that, Barton the two weeks before that, Rasmus the two weeks before that)... give ‘em away for a bag ‘o beans. we need some more 38 year old LH relief pitchers, and pronto! screw this “long-term” “responsible” “organization-building” hogwash. i want CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett and Erik Bedard this instant. after all, DeWitt is a millionaire and Rasmus hasn’t proven anything yet. there is NO EXCUSE for not having Bedard and Sabathia on this team already. DeWitt is just a selfish sack o’ you-know-what, and he’s trying to pull one over on us. please Oliver Stone reveal the truth about how Bill DeWitt are conspiring to destroy our fine democracy by promoting Chris Duncan and stifling Anthony Reyes! the world needs to know!
[/sarcasm]
Re: Duncan and trades - Let's work on the other things
All this talk about Duncan…...what’s really important, when all is said and done, is pitching and catching. We are set in the latter department for a few years. I would be happy if Mozeliak worked some sort of deal, or the Cards spent some money in the free agent season, and got a dependable lefthanded relief pitcher; a definite closer of the future (unless Franklin turns out to be him) and an everyday shorstop and/or second baseman. Being “solid up the middle” isn’t just a cliche.
Chris Perez...
is the definate closer of the future. Also the cardinals have Fernando Salas and Franciso Samuel in the minors as well. There would be no need to invest $1 on a free agent closer. 2B,SS, and LHRP are indeed needs that need to be addressed through free agency or trades, though. Kozma and Nico Vazquez would both seem to be at least 3 years away at SS. No one stands out right now at 2B. There is really nobody at all in the minors that could fill in at lefty relief anytime soon, but the cards should have Tyler Johnson back next season.
"Ding-dong the wicked witch is dead!" - Wayne Hagin after the cardinals snapped a losing streak
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jul 4, 2008 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I love Perez
but unless he finds a way to solve his control issues, I doubt he can be labeled the closer of the future. The team might have that label on him, but he does have to earn it first.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I thought this was interesting by Bernie
Manager Tony La Russa has been trying to squeeze a second inning out of rookie reliever Chris Perez in some recent outings, but it ain’t working. Perez has been a one-inning guy in his pro career. In his first inning of work this season, he’s held hitters to a .190 batting average (12 for 63). But when Perez continues on, the hitters have gotten to him for 6 hits in 13 at-bats in his second inning of duty (.462).
http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/bernies-extra-points/bernies-extra-points/2008/07/notes-on-sundays-scorecard-no-stl-all-star-snubs/
I know he had that 1 game where he walked the bases loaded than walked in a run. And that was his first inning pitched that day. But Perez might have better closer numbers if we just look at the first inning pitched.
"what's really important is 'pitching and catching'"
we are pretty set on the latter, too.
and surely you meant perez instead of 35-year-old ryan franklin!
by baw on Jul 5, 2008 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Change the subject. I'm leaving for a flight to Bangkok. See you in a while. Thanks for all the great posts, information and above all, FUN
En gassho
With gratitude and humility!
Go Cards
An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.
HL Mencken
Credit Where Credit Is Due
I’ll begin that I was wrong about Mozeliak. I thought that the Cards were going to you know where in a handbasket. I really thought that Walt Jocketty was a genious, but now I realize he was starting to lose his touch. So, I was wrong and Mozeliak was right.
"we are pretty set on the latter, too."
Not concerning relievers which, uh, is considered “pitching.”
what?
you and i seem to disagree on everything. i’m not sure what your issue is with my last statement; i said we are set on the latter, which in this case is, “uh,” catching.
perhaps it would be easier to follow if you could click ‘reply’ under the comment you are referencing. i mentioned this earlier.
eh...
... a defensible move when it happened, and still defensible now. he’s in league-average territory right now, and before the season the Cards had major question marks in the rotation: would Looper be able to pitch a full season with any effectiveness? would Wellemeyer? Lohse hadn’t arrived yet, and Wainwright was coming off his first full season which can often mean an injury is coming. McClellan hadn’t emerged yet, and the progress of Garcia, Boggs, & Perez was not at all assured.
if Piniero can continue to pitch at the level he’s at right now, then a league-average #4-5 starter for $6.5mn/year is an okay investment. so far, he’s out-pitched Suppan and Marquis whose contracts are both substantially bigger. and next year Looper comes off the books. i’m okay with starting the ‘09 rotation with Carp, Waino, Piniero. add one more solid piece + a kid (Boggs? Garcia? McClellan?) and that rotation stacks up pretty favorably with anybody in the NL, and we’ve only got to get one player in FA. the rotation won’t break the bank (total cost < $23mn before getting anybody in FA), so we’re still well-positioned to upgrade.
was it the greatest move in teh world? no. but it wasn’t a horrible one either. it provided some cost-certainty and an innings-eater at a time when nobody knew what the FA market was going to look like or who would be available as a starter. i think it was an okay move.
No Money, Mo Problems
I would give Mo credit so far for being better than average and working with the hand he was dealt. Getting rid of Rolen and his salary and his attitude and getting something in return alone would deserve credit. I was also impressed early when he essentially forced Tony’s hand on having Reyes on the roster. I thought that was a pretty significant statement that he was in controll of the future of the team and that we were going to look at some young guys. That said, the Clement signing seems to be a bust, although not a terribly expensive one. Loshe was a no-brainer panic move and we were lucky he was still available. I think they were probably hoping for more than league average out of Pinero because they could have gotten that out of Thompson or one of the AAA guys for less money. And Izturis certianly was a panic move and not the answer at short. I seem to remember him saying that not only did we need an impact arm and bat, but that we were absolutely going to go out and get them. I should probably give him some credit for not freaking out when that didn’t materialize and making more panic moves just to appear to be doing something. I don’t know how much I’d credit him on Ludwick- It just seems that they correctly figured that with 6 guys competing for two spots, someone would get hot. The same philosophy has more or less worked with the pitchers, but will that hold up over time?
I’ll be interested to see what happens at (and after) the deadline. I think we could probably add a left handed releif option for one of those “prospects” that we seem to value more than other teams. I would say we pretty much know what we’re getting from Duncan at this point, which is inconsistency and a few homers. If they’re going to add a hitter, it’s going to have to be an outfielder- there just aren’t any teams giving away power hitting second basemen/shortstops. And even if they don’t, Duncan is standing in the way of PT for Mather, Barton, Stavinoah, and eventually Rasmus, and we need to see what those guys can do. They aren’t trading Ludwick in the middle of a career year when he’s hitting in the heart of the order. I have to admit I have a huge man-crush on Holliday and would give up anything with the exception of Rasmus to have him hitting in front of or behind Pujols. I doubt that will happen but if he winds up moving somewhere for less than top prospects, Mo will have a lot of ‘splaining to do as far as I’m concerned. With the pitchers we have coming back, I don’t think that’s as pressing of a need. But the bottom line as far as I’m concerned is money. It’s hard to get too excited about 16 year old ballplayers, but I think it’s a great sign that we just opened up the purse strings to sign some Latin American prospects. I’m just still not convinced that the club will add payroll even if they feel the move will help the club long term, and if they won’t then Mo will have to get real creative to impress.
What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs. ~Harry Caray
I've decided that Duncan never had
much trade value and never will. People were scared that he would turn into a pumpkin, and replacement level for guys like him is pretty high. I wish people would stop talking about trading him too, but not because I think he’s going to go on a second half tear.
Duncan is a lummox - and I mean that affectionately.
The problem with Duncan is a) he’s a lummox in the OF (the guy tries hard and i appreciate it, but let’s call a spade a spade – does anyone remember a guy named Ryan Klesko?) b) this Pujols guy is locked in at his only real position. He’s not a better option than Ankiel, Ludwick, Schumaker (or Brian Barton imo) and Rasmus is here next year. He’s a waste of resources as a LH pinch hitter. If he could only play 2B or transform into Brandon Phillips, he would be exactly what we need. A straight up trade for Fuentes would be as much as we could expect for Dunc. The biggest problem with this roster is the way it’s constructed. We have below average offensive players at 2 spots (SS and 2B) and no potent bat to protect Pujols on the corners. Molina is not a good offensive player, but his step up to an average offensive player make him an overall plus. Schumaker is an ok OF in a strong lineup (Cubs, Red Sox), but we don’t have a strong lineup. Glaus, Ludwick and Ankiel are all solid complimentary bats, but we need 1 potent bat in the 4 hole to protect Pujols. Carlos Lee would have 200 RBI’s in that spot but he would take a spot from Skip or Ludwick so he doesn’t fit – especially next year when Rasmus arrives. The only places to improve the offense are in the middle infield and I don’t think Hanley Ramirez is available. Ideally, AROD would have really hated NY like the media reported and when he opted out someone would have told him that in STL he would have been treated like a deity and we could have ownership would have ponied up to portect the best hitter of our lifetime. Here’s to what could have been.
arod as ss i presume?
that would have been sick. with pujols, glaus, and rodriguez in the same infield, it wouldn’t really matter who our 2b was.
Not to mention Chase Utley at second
Wait, we’re dreaming right? Let’s just say, in this fantasy world, Chase Utley was traded to us for…I dunno. Anthony Reyes and a PTBNL.
Glaus, A-Rod, Utley, and Pujols.
God, we’re (imaginarily) amazing.

by 
















