stay the course
by lboros on Jul 28, 2008 8:18 AM EDT
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Printremind me never to make a connection through o’hare again. stacked-up air traffic caused us to miss our flight home saturday night, resulting in an unscheduled stay at the airport hilton; got home yesterday weary, dirty, and disorganized. and it’s not as if this hasn’t happened to me before . . . . . i have nothing against the chicago baseball team(s), but the chicago airport really ticks me off. in part because of the travel troubles, the post this morning is a bit of a hash. let’s dive right in:
should the cards sell? with the cards faltering and the nonwaiver deadline just three days away, derrick goold pops the question in the p-d this morning. mo answers emphatically no, specifically w/ respect to kyle lohse --- he won’t be going anywhere. the cards’ decisionmakers think wainwright and carpenter still give them a chance to make this year’s playoffs, and they’re still within striking distance so they’re going for it. while i can see the case for selling off lohse and others to position the team for 2009 and beyond, i think there’s a defensible, rational case to try to have it both ways ---- try to compete this year and build for the future. that’s what they set out to do last off-season, and so far it seems to be working; if not for the unforeseen implosion of the bullpen, the cards would be in first place. as it is, they still have a realistic shot to get in --- not a good shot, necessarily, but probably on the order of 1 in 5. you rarely see teams in that position playing for next year, and with good reason --- every year at this time, there are about 5 big-league teams with a 1 in 5 chance to get into the playoffs, and at least one of them usually makes it. in 2007 it was the phillies, who as of this date last year were barely over .500, 4 games out in their division and 5th in the wild-card race. the rockies were substantially worse off than that; they made the playoffs, too. in 2006 it was the dodgers; in ’04 and ’05, the astros.
while the cardinals appear to be falling apart everywhere ---- not just the bullpen but also the rotation and the lineup --- the effect is exaggerated by the two late-inning collapses vs milwaukee. if they’d simply held the leads in games 2 and 4 of that series, the cards would be 12-10 this month --- hardly a team in eclipse --- and 2 games back of the cubs, a game back of the crew. they’d be 13 games over .500, close to their high-water mark for the year, with carpenter and wainwright about to come back. if those were the standings, not very many people would be asking if the cards ought to sell.
now, those aren’t the standings --- i realize that. they did blow the two games late, and the damage was done. but are those two losses sufficient to move the cards from a buy (or stand-pat) footing onto a play-for-next-year footing? i think that would be an overreaction. the cards did the same thing last year in the opposite direction: they changed from sellers to buyers after winning the last three of a four-game set vs the brewers in late july, with two of the wins coming in their last at-bat vs a terrible bullpen. those two late-game decisions altered the cards’ thinking. instead of trading veterans for prospects, as they had been thinking of doing, they decided to make a run at it ---picked up joel pineiro, miguel cairo, and russell branyan down the stretch. just as last year’s team wasn’t really as good as those two late-inning wins made it seem, this year’s team isn’t as bad as the late-inning defeats make it appear. as frustrating as this month has been, they still have the 3rd-best record in the league. they’re still viable --- not favorites, but not lost causes either. their situation doesn’t look very good at the moment, but it’s not hopeless enough to precipitate a sell-off.
i wonder how albert’s not-too-distant free agency plays into the cardinals’ thinking. he’s the consummate competitor ---- never gives up, never gives in. he’s spent the last two years playing through pain to prop up a sagging roster; he more than anyone has helped the team remain presentable. albert and his teammates have done exactly what was asked of them in 2008 --- stay close until carpenter returns, then try to make a late charge. that has been the explicit plan all along, and the players have executed it; you could argue they’ve earned the chance to see it through to the end. if the front office blows up the team instead and denies those guys the chance to finish what they started, albert won’t forget it when the time comes to start negotiating a new deal.
now let’s look at the other side of the question: should they buy? gammons hints that they’re making a serious run at brian fuentes; i’ve been down on the idea, and i would still hate it if the cards had to give up meaningful players in such a deal. but they are just about out of other options at this point; if the cards were to get him, what price could i live with?
i can imagine the rockies being interested in either / both of skip schumaker and john jay --- the gm out here loves speedy, slappy guys in the leadoff hole, and willy taveras just ain’t the answer. they’d also want at least one pitcher back --- as long as it’s not jaime garcia, i can probably wrap myself around the idea. chris perez might have to be part of the package; one wonders if luis perdomo, the flame-throwing righty the cards got back for a reyes, was acquired with an eye toward freeing up perez. (perdomo debuted w/ springfield last night, threw a scoreless inning.) so let’s say the cards have to give up jay, perez, and clay mortensen for two months of fuentes --- two #1 draft picks and a #2. i don’t know that the rox can do a whole lot better than that. if they’d give you fuentes for that package, would you take it?
as much as i hate the idea of that type of deal, i wouldn’t dismiss it out of hand. it’d give the cards a pretty good chance, and they could probably afford that price. they’d go down the stretch with a rotation of wainwright, carp, lohse, wellemeyer, and looper / pineiro; assuming fuentes restores order to the late innings, that team would have a chance to make a run. and nobody would take them for granted in the playoffs. such a trade would do damage to the farm system, but it certainly wouldn’t cripple it --- the cards’ outfield picture already is too crowded for jay, and even if they lose mortensen they still have several viable rhsp prospects in the high minors (todd, ottavino, boggs, herron, parisi) to go along with jaime garcia. plus, they still have kyle mcclellan as a rotation candidate. for that matter, mcclellan might be a candidate to close next year.
and so you ask: well hell, why not just make mcclellan the closer this year, and save all the prospects for some other trade? maybe that’s the way to go. mcclellan has hardly been perfect --- he’s been right in the middle of some of the bullpen’s worst choke jobs --- but he has been the most consistent of the cards’ relief pitchers. he pitches well out of the stretch (.599 opponent ops with runners on base, and .536 with risp), and he bounces back well on short rest. of the internal options, he appears to be the best at this point --- a far better one than wainwright, who (as houstoncardinal argued yesterday) is needed in the rotation and would be underutilized in a relief role. mcclellan would be a big gamble --- he might fail, and the cardinals might miss the playoffs for lack of a competent closer. but he’s the best fit for the cards’ self-defined model of internal development. the guy has had a successful, if short, apprenticeship; there’s a need, and he’s a candidate to fill it. the cards have had pretty good success this year giving opportunities to homegrown players, rather than dealing for or re-signing veterans; seems like they ought to just stay the course.
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From the STL P-D
“I’m not going to even say I threw good pitches, because I didn’t make too many good pitches,” he said. “And they made me pay for it.”
“It was one of those days where you have a hard time getting in a groove, and you’re going to have them like this, where you have to battle through,” Lohse said. “I wasn’t able to get through.”
I have a great deal of respect for players that are able to simply own up to their mistakes. Able to avoid the cliche (and usually false) answers of making good pitches (except for 1 or 2) or whatever BS deflects from what is a poor performance. Lohse didn’t have it yesterday—that’s going to happen on occasion. props to him for being straight about it.
re: Fuentes
Trading for a reliever just doesn’t make sense to me when the Cardinals are going to have so many needs in the near future. Especially swapping Fuentes for a package that includes Perez. You get a closer for the next two months but trade a pitcher that could have been your closer for the next 6 years—color me confused at that type of a move.
Personally, I’ve become more amicable to a trade for Holliday because I think the Cardinals offense is still a little lacking. Ideally, an upgrade would be somewhere in the middle infield (Orlando Hudson would be a great acquisition for this team during the offseason) but that’s much harder to come by than an upgrade over Schumaker in LF. That said, I worry about what an outfield acquisition would mean for Colby Rasmus. If he was disappointed at not making the team this year imagine his discomfort with the organization if he doesn’t make it next year. The Cardinals have a surplus of these marginal outfielders (Skip, Mather, Barton, Stavinoha, Duncan) that still hasn’t been addressed in any reasonable way.
FWIW, I think the Cardinals are doing a much better job of developing pitchers in the minor league system than they are hitters. They have a lot of RH options for both the bullpen and the middle/back of the rotation. Moving some of those types of prospects would concern me a lot less than moving position prospects (of whom the Cardinals don’t have a great deal, imo).
Holliday
I still don’t think that he’s going anywhere, even with all the reports that he’s being shopped. The Rockies are only 6 games out in a division that they nearly won last year in the month of September, and they haven’t been healthy all season. Nobody seems to want to take charge of that division and there really isn’t a team there that you could say is way ahead of the Rockies in terms of talent. The D-Backs have better pitching overall, but they can’t score runs to save their lives, so unless they go on a tear like they had at the beginning of the season, I can’t see them running away with it. The Dodgers have the same problem.
FWIW, getting Holliday in a year where the Rockies were cellar-dwellers would be one thing, but prying him away from a team that could compete next season with him and is currently not sitting very many games back in the division would be much tougher and would come with a higher pricetag.
Fuentes is expendable for them because they have a number of good, young bullpen arms and a guy like Corpas, who closed down the stretch for them last year. He also isn’t under contract next year, so unless they’re planning on re-signing him, he isn’t a factor in that respect. Better yet, they could deal him to a team for prospects and then bring him back as a free-agent and get the best of both worlds.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
That's just Manny being... a Cardinal?
Long shot, to be sure. But IF the Red Sox were going to trade him soon, he would be the bat TLR wants. He could be a rental player, and then the Cardinals would get draft picks for him. The cost may be high in terms of prospects, but Manny hitting behind Albert… Hmm.
OK, time for my morning medication so I can cease these hallucinations.
Honi soit qui mal y pense.
Interesting
If it was a straight “Make Manny happy/salary dump” for this season I think it’d be a good deal. The Red Sox reportedly want a player to fill his shoes in LF that’s a similar type bat, though, which rules out a trade to St. Louis, since, outsided of Albert, we don’t have a player like that to trade.
Also, I doubt he’s going to be a rental - if he’s traded I’d be shocked if he didn’t ask a team to pick up at least one and possibly both option years remaining on his contract - at $20M per season. Ouch. Gammons reported last night that he might want to be a free-agent at the end of the year and go looking for a 4 year $100 million dollar deal somewhere. Considering that limits his options to about 4 teams in baseball—and two of them (Red Sox, Yankees) won’t want anything to do with him, I have a hard time believing he’ll get that kind of money. He’d be much better off taking his two option years and then seeing where the market is at that point. But we are talking about Manny here….
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
He has told baaaaaaston
That he does NOT want his option picked up or he wants to be traded. I can’t see theo dealing him. So he’ll be lookin for someone to give him 25 mil per
"Textbooks are Soviet propaganda" - Rev. Jerry Falwell
$25 mil per year just isn't happening
Manny will find that one out the hard way. This is his age 36 season. Nobody is going to make him the second-highest paid player in baseball to regress for four years. Not to mention, as someone mentioned, only a few teams can even afford that, and two of them probably want nothing to do with him.
Then again, who knows. The market is crazy and the Angels always seem ready to throw a bajillion dollars at bad free agent investments in the OF.
Personally, I think Manny is amusing, but I don’t want him in Cardinal red. His idiocy sat well enough with the Boston fans and media (if not the front office), but it probably wouldn’t sit well in St. Louis…and less so if he started to drop off in terms of production.
TLR would flip a shit if Brendan Ryan started talking on his cell phone in the middle of a game, or if Rick Ankiel gave a fan a high five in the middle of a play.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it."- Rogers Hornsby
by redbirds8233 on Jul 28, 2008 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
High 5 Play
You gotta admit, that play is a delight to watch on the highlight reel… But I don’t think there is any MOmentum to get a trade like this done. And I think the Red Sox see Manny as being too valuable for them to win this season. Now, where is that Barry Bonds guy, anyway?
Honi soit qui mal y pense.
Manny is an Angel
not the heavenly kind. I see him with the halos either later this week and/or next April.
Manny as a Redbird? hmmm. Considering our needs seem to be 1) a closer; 2) a MI with some pop; 3) a cavalry on the way SP… the idea is dubious at any cost. Another factor is that Skip is NOT the reason we are not in first place.
However it might make Albert very happy. And if the Sawwx would swap him straight up for Anderson… why not?
What are the.....
“so many needs” that the Cardinals will have in the near future?
Rotation has some talent in Carp/Waino/Welly…..we might resign Lohse, and then we have plenty of young arms like Garcia, Todd, etc. Also have JP signed for next year, and he’s fine as a #5 guy.
Bullpen has plenty of “promise”, so who knows if that’ll be a huge need. I agree that we need a couple of arms that will need to come from outside the organization though.
OF is young. While I’d like to upgrade it, that probably isn’t our biggest need. Glaus is around for another season, then we can either resign him or promote from within. Pujols isn’t going anywhere. We are set at catcher. Now, the MI needs help, and this is probably the biggest area of need. It is also going to be the hardest to fill, IMO.
I don’t see a ton of glaring holes. That is why I’m not against moving some of our prospects that haven’t established themselves at can’t miss. Guys like Todd, Motte, etc.
Middle infield, to name 2
Glaus will be 33 and a free agent after next year. The bullpen needs work, of course, and Ankiel will be a free agent after next year as well (and 30). That’s not nothing. Middle infield, in particular, is very difficult to come by, as we’ve seen. As for Wellemeyer, I’m hardly sold on his being a continuning member of the rotation beyond this year and Carpenter’s coming off TJ surgery and isn’t getting any younger.
There is help on the way in the rotation and w/ Rasmus and at C if needed but this team is hardly a finished product.
Looking ahead
Rotation has 3 guys who have been injured in the past 6 months and a bunch of back end pitchers. The young kids aren’t ready to step into much more than a back end role despite their potential down the road. There’s depth there but if Carp or (less likely) Wainwright stumble we’re in some deep crap.
Bullpen does have a lot of potential. It also has an ineffective Izzy & Franklin, old and fragile Springer, old FA Villone and now the frightening duo of Jimenez and Flores. Sorry, that doesn’t strike me as a great bullpen heading into next year. Especially with TLR’s reluctance to give important roles to younger relievers (and please don’t cite the Wainwright arg. That’s a tired response with Perez in the minors.)
OF isn’t really young. Ludwick is having a career year at age 30. I’d like to believe this is his true talent level but you can point to a ton of single year peaks in the majors by players. Ankiel is only under team control 1 more year and LF has been a revolving platoon.
I’m enumerating a worst case scenario but when you’ve essentially punted two positions of offense, you can’t afford to lose any others. This team has the potential (imo) to get old really quick. Especially the offense which seems to be Albert Pujols and a streaky supporting cast.
Wainright still a relevant argument
Wainwright, at the time, had a repertoire of big league pitches at the time. Most here seem to agree that Perez needed to work on pitches other than his fastball, and they sent him down with those instructions. If you want to try to make the point otherwise, fine, but I don’t think that the Perez comparison makes as much sense.
It's not relevant because TLR would rather have
Jimenez and Flores on the roster than Perez. To act like Wainwright had nothing to work on when he came up strikes me as naive. TLR called Perez up to put him in the 6th and 7th innings. That’s a lack of trust.
Of course Wainwright wasn't perfect
But, as I said, most people here talked about how Perez wasn’t quite ready for the majors (or so I seem to recall). I don’t remember anything like that about Wainwright in 2006.
2006
I though Wainwright was added to the roster because he blew away the competition in spring training that season and won a spot, similar to McClellan this season. At the time, Reyes was touted as the far more finished and ML ready product than Wainwright.
Can you really argue with Jimenez since his call up?
by SoonerfanTU on Jul 28, 2008 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, I can
He loaded the bases twice vs. the Mets the other night, walking 4 or 5 guys in the process. I can find plenty to argue with there. He mostly got lucky to wriggle out of that jam, which was almost entirely of his own doing.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 28, 2008 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
He's been rocky to say the least.
Results based analysis won’t show that but watching the games he hasn’t been lights out or anything.
Also, after watching him blow up again and again for 40 innings last year, I’m going to be extremely skeptical about him suddenly becoming a major league reliever.
Perez is to Anthony Reyes as...
...does anyone else see parallels? Flores and Jimenez over Perez at this point is absolutely crazy. You could also add Izzy to that list, but it saddens me to see this once-nails reliever in his current state. Sort of like watching the end of Jimmy Edmonds as a Cardinal…
Okay. Now that made me laugh.
Thank you.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
heh. welcome.
i actually don’t mind jimmy as a cub as much as i thought i would. i thought he was pretty much done and was embarrassing himself in san diego, so part of me is happy for him, while another part of me feels the whole thing is blasphemy.
I disagree about Perez
He was up for a while. And he was thrown in some big situations. He was also sent down with instructions on what to work on. He wasn’t just sent down to remove him from the 25 man.
perez is down working on his slider
they told him to throw a slider one in every 4-5 pitches or something and to not worry about the results.
he is down there so he can work on that and it wont screw the big club.
they are just working on the big picture with him.
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Jul 28, 2008 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
So Kelvin gets to work on his pitches
and screw with the big league club but Perez doesn’t? Wonder why that is. . .
At the end of the day, the Cardinals opted for the inferior pitcher on their roster.
Maybe its because they Perez is working on something completely different
than Jimenez?
They apparantly don’t want Perez thinking about anything except learing how to throw his slider. What Jimenez does is completely different. He’s not working on a specific pitch, he’s working on getting out major league hitters. He was pitching really well at AAA and the only way to get better at getting out MLB hitters is to actually be on the big club.
Perez simply needs to work on his slider. I don’t think they have any doubt that he can get out MLB hitters, its just that he really needs to develop a second pitch. So much that they want him to focus on it. And once he develops a slider that he can count on and be consistant with, he’ll be back with St. Louis.
Would you rather him be with the Cardinals with other teams knowing 1) that he doesn’t have faith in his slider and 2) he’s specifically tring to learn how to pitch with it to the point that he doesn’t care what happens when he throws it? Seriously?
Comparing the two situations is a waste of time. They’re working on two different sets of goals.
To answer your questions
Yes, I would because he’s still a better pitcher than Kelvin Jimenez.
You can argue that Kelvin has to work on something different but the Cardinals have again chose lesser pitchers over their rookies. Other teams seem to let their rookies work on things in the majors—the Cardinals (notably the coaches) seem awfully adverse to that.
Really?
Who takes a rookie pitcher and tells them to work on their slider and to not be worried about the results at the major league level when they are in July in a penant race?
How about this --
don’t announce to the league that he has to throw the slider every 3rd pitch. As for rookies in pennant races—how about Edwar Ramirez of the Yankees.
I didn’t think Perez was ready to be called up. I don’t think he’s ready now. But this continued commitment to pitchers like Flores and Jimenez is astonishing.
he isn't slowing the slider every third pitch
at least not at the major league level. And they don’t want him to throw it every third pitch when he gets up here. The told him to throw it every third pitch down in AAA to work on it.
Jimenez
I agree you might as well let Perez learn on the job. However do you think Jimenez is seen as a guy they like to have around to pitch in blow-outs/long relief when you need to avoid getting blown out depending on Brad Thompson’s status..
I don’t know I guess Jimenez has pitched well in AAA so it’s not like he was bad there and then gets promoted despite being bad at AAA. Maybe he just can’t make that jump like some other pitches STL has had.
Perez….. He definitely needs a 2nd pitch at this point. I was not that impressed with his stuff the first time up. Maybe he was overhyped, but like I have said before yes he has a nice arm but his fastball is not off the charts and his slider was not that nasty. He looked like a lot of teams relievers who throw hard…
Perez
I think we’ve probably learned that performance slips pretty fast if you try to push him past 1 inning. I thought he looked pretty good, for the most part. Seems to fatigue fast though. I was at a game vs. Philadelphia, where he was left in for over 40 pitches. He looked sharp in the first inning of work, but by the second he was clearly laboring – was working right around 90 according to the stadium gun.
by Merry CRasmus on Jul 28, 2008 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Very true
It’s not like we’re dealing w/ a guy who was even mediocre in his previous ML stints. This guy was one of the worst pitchers in all of baseball last year in his limited number of innings. Hardly a ringing endorsement there.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 28, 2008 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
+1
Yes, Perez needs to work on his slider to maximize his big-league potential. However, the fact that TLR would rather have Jimenez then Perez says a lot about his point of view on this one. He’d rather have vets, or in this case more polished, pitchers than more unknown quantities. No matter if the vets are not good, or the more polished kids stink…
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 28, 2008 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
It's not a Jimenez vs. Perez argument.
Perez is going to be a stud MLB pitcher. He may even be that this year. The point is that he was getting hit pretty hard lately, so Mo sent him down to work on his slider. He had to be replaced with SOMEBODY, so Jimenez gets the call. Hopefully, Perez will refine his slider and be up for a late-season run at the penant, but he simply was not helping the team at the time of his demotion.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
The Wainwright argument
Wainwright was put in the closer’s role b/c Tony was out of options. He didn’t do it b/c he though Wainwright would be the best closer. He, simply, had no one else to turn to. Is that true today? No. He can keep running Franklin out there or hope Izzy turns it around. If Franklin was out for the year, it might be the same situation b/c then, maybe, Tony would be forced to stick McClellan back there. But he’s not going to give McClellan a chance as long as Franklin saves 2 out of every 3 or so.
he tried looper first
after izzy was shut down, looper inherited the role and promptly lost two games, on september 18 and september 22. wainwright only became the closer after that — he saved one game down the stretch, on september 27.
he became closer with about 7 games left on the schedule. that’s about as last-resort as you can get
you can’t really make an argument like “TLR hates young relievers” and then preclude anyone from making the wainwright argument just because you think it’s “tired.”
ice cream does not come in any pretty colors. and please don’t talk to me about strawberry – that’s a tired response.
Moot point
TLR continues his irrational devotion to Franklin:
“When Franklin is fresh, he’s going to get the ninth inning. He’s the best guy we have for that role.”
Um, what about McClellan and/or Springer. If fresh, they are better than Franklin. His peripherals are evening out after an unsustainable 2007. Wake up and read your own binder, Tony. Sheesh.
Maybe it's because
he wants to save McClellan and Springer to be able to insert them into a situation that is much more dire than simply starting the 9th with no men on base?
Old Fast...
Az-
Of course you are right that the team has the potential to age quickly. But if Rasmus and Wallace can establish themselves, the team has the ability to start looking younger rather quickly. You could say that I am jumping the gun on Wallace, but nothing we have seen thusfar indicates that this guy is anything but a pure bat.
PF Depth isn’t something that I am very worried about. It just seems like we are developing a lot of servicable hitters in the minors that can handle the OF—probably no stars though…
Middle infielders on the other hand are the issue. We have to stop punting these positions…
BJM
by BigJawnMize on Jul 28, 2008 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree completely, Jawn
But, when we drafted the best MIF available last year (kozma), the fanbase went nuts about it.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
yeah, O'Hare can be a real bitch...
I try to use Midway whenever possibly, but it has really grown in the past 7-8 years, so that’s no piece of cake anymore…plus if you get stuck at Midway, the neighborhood isn’t the greatest.
It’s being with kids that does it…I forget how old yours are, but having irritable, whining, bickering children in tow when something like this happens magnifies the situation 10 fold…if it was just me or me and the wife, I could deal…but with kids…YIKES!!
O'Hare is a nightmare
People in my office have started connecting through Detroit when possible. Every time someone goes through O’Hare, and I mean every single time, there is a problem.
by Youneverknow on Jul 28, 2008 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Sell, Sell, Sell
You make some great points, but…
I guess to me, the Cardinals really are not as good as their record indicates. If they are really a ”.500” team who have played over their heads and due for a correction, you probably can’t add enough talent to get them in it.
Over the next two months, it is reasonable to expect many players’ overall stat lines to go down, including Schumaker, Molina, Miles, Lohse, Looper, Wellemeyer, and McClellan. And I doubt Ankiel is a .280 hitter. To contend, you have to have some of those players not decline, have other players on the roster improve significantly, and add talent. And have either the Brewers or Cubbies falter. A lot has to go right.
Let’s put it this way, the Cubs are on pace for 94 wins. The Brewers are on pace for 92-93 wins.
To get to 93 wins, the Cardinals, currently with a .542 winning percentage, have to play .636 ball the rest of the way. Possible, but not likely. I don’t mind some moves, but I don’t want to give up much on the assumption the Cardinals will suddenly turn into a .630 team.
Wow
You don’t have much faith in our players. Skip should be able to keep hitting .290 or so against righties, and I think Molina is for real. I also think Miles will, for the most part, keep hitting. At a clip of .320? Maybe not, but he’ll keep hitting. Welly depends on his health, and none of us know that. McClellan has just been overused.
But you say “sell, sell, sell”.....exactly who? Lohse is really the only guy we can sell. Sure, we could move an OF or two, but I bet we’ve already been trying to do that, and I wouldn’t exactly consider that selling. Iz and Franklin have no value. I doubt Looper has much, not to mention, we can’t start moving SP’s without having replacements.
I have faith in our players
I just don’t have much faith a .540 team is going to suddenly become a .630 team. And, for the sake of argument, let’s say all of the players I Iisted don’t decline, and that they hit like they have been and continue to exceed their previously established level of performance. All that got us so far is a .540 team. What will make them turn into a .630 team? Miles hitting .360 with Ludwick adding yet another 100 points of OPS while Lohse shaves another run off his ERA?
Barring that, we have to add talent, and Brian Fuentes is not going to add 90 points of winning perentage. Neither is Mat Holiday.
My point is, what has to take place for this team to end up in the post season? Do those events seem likely? Possible?
Anyway, I hope I’m wrong. I’ll be at the Phillies series this weekend cheering the team on.
"All that got us so far is a .540 team. What will make them turn into a .630 team?"
Theoretically, the addition of Carpenter and Wainwright down the stretch, and the trickle-down effect that would have on the staff. Lohse looks a lot sexier as a #3 instead of a #1…
I’m not saying these guys are a guarantee, but you asked what could turn this team into a .630 team if all else holds as is, and that seems to be the variable you’re looking for.
Agreed.
And while tarakas states that Fuentes wouldn’t add 90 points, I disagree. If we save half the games we’ve blown, or heck, 5 of them or so, we’re in 1st place.
Fuentes and a Time Machine...
If Fuentes came with a time machine, yeah, he’d be worth it. But we can’t get those lost wins back.
There is no reason to believe he’ll be worth that number of games over 2 months.
But What Versions of Carpenter and Wainwright Are Coming Back?
Carpenter and Wainwright at the top of their games are worth a lot. After 18 months of rehab, though, I doubt Carpenter starts out at the top of his game. Reports are he is having trouble cracking 90 on a radar gun with less than stellar command.
Yes, the Cardinals front office is talking them up. Just like they talked up Carpenter last year when he tried to come back, and just like they talked up Mulder.
According to Baseball Prospectus, in his last two healthy seasons, Carpenter was worth about 68 runs versus a replacement pitcher, or about a win a month. Wainwright last year was 40 runs better, or about half a win a month. Thus a fully healthy Wainwright and Carpenter pitching at top form are worth maybe 3 wins over then next two months. That’s a start.
I voted "stand pat"
but I would be in favor of any forward-thinking deal. If there is a 2009 or 2010 component then I would consider it, but I don’t think much of rentals. I certainly couldn’t back Jay, Perez, and Mortensen for two months of Fuentes. Maybe Jay and one or two of the lesser pitchers, but it is way to early to give up on Perez and we don’t really know what Mortensen can do yet.
On the other hand, I would be willing to move a player or two in the “sell” mode if we could fill a need (read offensive MI). I think your 1 in 5 odds are about right, so it doesn’t make sense to bleed off talent on a 20% gamble.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
This is pretty well where I stand...
I voted buy, but only for guys that don’t cost players we are leaning on for 2008-2010. I’d like to see us target Rhodes in Seattle…if someone like Robinson or Jay maybe Boggs or Parisi could get him…these guys are redundant in our system IMO. At this point there’s at least six guys I don’t want to see moved unless they bring back somebody who is signed or under club control through at least next year preferrably 2010…probably closer to 10 or 12 guys.
With Carp coming back this week and WW getting close I’d like to move Lohse or Looper…Piniero, too if he’s worth anything.
by cardzfanbub on Jul 28, 2008 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
As one who has seen Rhodes
blow up countless times in important games-especially against the Yankees-I say emphatically no to him. He can look good when the pressure is minimal, but he is likely to wilt when it really matters.
I'm not looking at Rhodes...
as a closer (though he has significant experience there). He’s more of a lefty specialist that can face a righty if needed…something this team doesn’t have. He might make a great set-up guy to complement Springer. With Rhodes maybe we could consider trying K-Mac in the closer’s role.
by cardzfanbub on Jul 28, 2008 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Buy vs. Sell
The reason to sell if not simply where the Cards are in the standings, but is also a function of whether the Cards can get a long-term piece they need. Look at the prospective 2009 roster and the biggest hole is remaining is the middle infield (assuming you think Ludwick can keep this up, if not then a middle of the order bat is the biggest hole). The Cards should sell if they can upgrade at the middle infield or add a middle of the order hitter. Otherwise, the team should stand pat.
As for buying, given the number of potential relievers that populate the Memphis roster, I see no reason to buy on a reliever. If the Cards want relief help, try what he have in AA and AAA plus Wellemeyer once he is dropped from the rotation.
The club can also
buy for this year and next year. George Sherrill would be this type of an acquisition. Seasonal rentals of pitchers don’t interest me so much. But an upgrade at any of the positions or a cost-controlled reliever makes a ton of sense.
Also, don’t forget TLR will be extremely pissed if an addition isn’t made. If his sidekick goes at the end of the year, he may go with him. Mo has a narrow path to walk.
I like Sherrill for three reasons:
1.) he’ll be under club control until 2010, which means he’ll be here when Colby Rasmus and, possibly, Brett Wallace are;
2.) the Cardinals farm system is pretty darn weak when it comes to lefthanded relief, so Sherrill keeps you from scouring the free agent ranks for the next Ron Villone;
3.) he’s capable of closing, which could pay benefits now, when closing is really up in the air.
I’d rather pay up for Sherrill than Fuentes. I just wonder how interested the O’s would be in a trade.
by rockin the red on Jul 28, 2008 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
I bet the O's keep him......
They gave up their star pitcher-yeah, Bedard was a star, as part of the deal to get him. They are fully aware that he is a cheap option in their pen for years to come. It would have to be a blow them away offer, an offer they can’t refuse. If they want to get on with a real rebuild, Roberts is the one to go. Kind of think Sherrill stays with them for awhile.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
No, I think he's gone
because if Fuentes is off the market, his value just went up a click.
by Red in Chicago on Jul 28, 2008 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Naw
If I were going to trade someone, I would move Sherrill while his value is at its highest. With the ups and downs for young relievers (Brad Lidge anyone?) you are far better moving them to early rather than too late. Besides, from the right team they could add some much needed starting pitching or even another outfield or corner infield bat. To them, someone like Alan Craig might be valuable.
I would trade him, too
but I’ve read that they want to keep him so that they’ll have someone who can save games, when they have the opportunity. Maybe it was just posturing but you’re talking about an organization w/ a long history of talking about doing something and doing nothing. Maybe that’s ending w/ Tejada and Bedard, but I still think they’ll keep him, despite how it makes more sense to move him.
This is just an idea,
and I by no means endorse this, but would they take Chris Perez as their closer? The Cardinals would be getting Sherrill for two and a half years, which should be enough time for one of our younger relief arms (Motte, Salas, Samuel, Perdomo) to develop into a closer’s role. Just a thought…
by rockin the red on Jul 28, 2008 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
the thought of giving up on Perez already makes me sick
I think he has the potential to be a whole lot better than Sherrill as well as any over the other guys you listed.
boo cubs, hooray beer
+1
His slider is better than most youngsters’ sliders. His fastball is blistering. He is a bit rough with his control, but that will come. And if it doesn’t, he’s still better than at least three members of the bullpen. Interesting stats:
ERA
Perez: 4.18
Franklin: 3.96
Izzy: 5.84
FIP
Perez: 4.60
Franklin: 5.02
Izzy: 5.07
So, Perez is unceremoniously relegated to Memphis while Franklin & Izzy are defended tooth-and-nail in the media while being trotted out to lose games. Incredible.
slider
everyone says it is sick…but i didn’t see anything that resembled a plus slider when perez was up here the first time. his fastball was fast, but other than that he didn’t have much goin for him.
the problem is that Perez has a true slider...
which has sharp bite at the end. most people these days think a slider is more of a slurve.
a slider shouldn’t be a breaking ball, it should be more like a cut-fastball.
by longhornscardinals on Jul 28, 2008 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Oohh, the great slider controversy!
That one has been going on for at least 50 years. I agree w/ you in Perez’ case that a hard late breaking slider better complements his fastball.
Duncan asked Perez to do two things...
...in spring training:
-pitch from the stretch
-feature the curve over the slider
Lefties weren’t skeered of him, so they moved his arm angle up, which allowed him to get inside on lefties better and it also helped the curve. It appears that the curveball experiment failed. OR that they needed immediate help and decided to go back to dancin’ with the girl that brung him.
My point: I don’t think we’ve seen his wipeout slider.
Interesting
Josh Kalk’s pitch effect doesn’t even have a “slider,” but merely a “curveball” and a “fastball.”
got me wondering
Between high moving fastballs and the occasional slider in on the hands, I’d have thought Perez’ stuff would have been just fine against most lefties. Apparently not.
Small sample but consistent w/
record in the minors. I think Perez can keep developing & hope we don’t find a way to screw him up.
Blown saves are beginning to irk me.
Fastball
His fastball is not exactly overpowering. Major League hitters will hit a 95 mph fastball especially if they are looking for it. He desparately needs a dominant secondary pitch to maximize the fastball.
He’ll never make it as a fastball-only pitcher.
I guess that's it....
The fastball doesn’t have enough movement to work alone, even at 95-97mph. I hope we’re going to see the hard slider again & I’d settle for “serviceable” if we can’t get “dominant.”
Adam Jones
was the centerpiece of the Bedard trade. Sherrill was secondary. The O’s also have their closer from 2006/2007, Chris Ray, coming back next year and he is under team control for the same time period as Sherrill.
re #2
That is the main reason I like sherrill. We are going to have to get some lefties. We might give up some GOOD righty prospects, but if we are looking for the now and the future Sherrill makes a ton of sense. He probably won’t be a closer for us in the future, but good lefties are not cheap via trade or free agency, so why not trade for one now.
gonna need more franklins to get through this one.
by hoofhearted-pujols on Jul 28, 2008 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
+1 on Sherrill
"Cross a lawyer with the Godfather, make you an offer you can't understand" - Don Henley
by Futility Infielder on Jul 28, 2008 9:55 AM EDT reply actions
I wouldn't be surprised if the Perdomo trade was made to free up Perez either
I thought that if Reyes was going to be shipped off it would be in a package deal. It may turn out that he will be included in a package, from a particular point of view.
I'm ok w/ Fuentes
but would not give up BOTH Perez AND Mortensen. It’s too bad we can’t really give them Skip w/ Rasmus hurt. I guess we could try finishing this off w/ Mather in the OF but they won’t, and I wouldn’t advise it. Jay and Perez OR Mortensen, not both. Fuentes is just a rental—2 months is all we’ll get + the two draft picks in the offseason. Are the 2 draft picks worth Mortensen? I doubt it. Mortensen’s too close to being ready but I suppose the two draft picks, while I oppose the idea, would make it justifiable.
Just say no to Holliday—it strips the farm system and does more to block Rasmus’ path, as AZ argued earlier. I’m sure Tony wants Holliday. Don’t let him talk you into it, Mo.
I fail to see how
adding a righthanded hitting corner outfielder blocks a lefthanded hitting centerfielder. In any case, there are three positions in the outfield. The only thing blocking Rasmus-although his acolytes sometimes fail to recognize it-is that he is not yet ready for the majors and may not be next year either at the rate he is progressing.
Rasmus seemed awful ready during spring training
and for the last month and half before his injury. The beginning of the year slump was not a reflection of his ability.
Could use this
“He leaves major-league camp as one of the NL leaders with 12 walks to complement a .273/.467/.515 line and two home runs, seven runs scored and four RBIs.”
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 28, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I vote to stand pat
unless some minor deal involving roster players can made to improve MI and Bullpen. I have followed the Cards for a long time and in years like this, I usually shift modes and start looking for other things to enjoy in following the Cards. Like getting a good look at a number of young players that will be coming onto the scene from Memphis and trying to make judgements as to whose ready, who’s not. Whose worth keeping, who can we trade this offseason. there is a lot to keep my interest, I don’t have to win every year. I would personally like to see the present roster trimmed by releasing about 3 or 4 dead weights and pulling in new faces from the minors. It might not help but it would sure peak my interest. This team needs to make some roster moves.
I have a question..
Splits be damned – why do you start your rookie outfielder against the 2 best pitchers in the league? Is that supposed to be some sort of confidence booster?
by Birds on the Matt on Jul 28, 2008 10:31 AM EDT reply actions
because Ankiel was hurt.
Tony was getting critized for not starting Mather. Now he is starting and we are critizing him for it.
Exactly.
If Mather’s going to be a big leaguer he’s going to have to face those guys sometime. It may be daunting but that can just as easily be read as a sign of confidence (i.e. my manager trusts me against these top flight pitchers).
Skip started
b/c Ankiel was hurt. Skip’s been awful this year and throughout his career vs. lefties and would have sat vs. Santana if Ankiel were healthy. Mather would have been in there anyway. That said, starting Mather over Skip would have been the right thing to do. Splits be damned? They matter and Skip’s are awful vs. lefties.
Mather vs. lefties
I was at the game yesterday, and unless I’m recalling incorrectly, isn’t Mather hitting something like .143 vs. lefties? I could be wrong.
by glennrwordman on Jul 28, 2008 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
.129 in the bigs but
.293/.398/.600 at Memphis this year, he hits lefties pretty good but he just can’t hit big league pitching right now
He looked better than Ludwick
against Santana. I’m not convinced he can’t hit big-league pitching based on the limited opportunities he’s had so far.
exactly 50 major league at bats spread over a bunch of games
is not a sample size to judge a player by.
boo cubs, hooray beer
Hugo
Thanks. Small sample size alert!
by glennrwordman on Jul 28, 2008 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
The other element
Just curious as to how many people who want to sell are those who go to several Cardinal games per year.
As much as most of us view each baseball season, and running a franchise overall, as a giant game (one that evokes a lot of passion, to say the least), there are many who pay lots of money to see the sport in person, and many feel that they are entitled to “get their money’s worth.” To them, baseball is entertainment (in a different way than it is to, say, most of us)- and paying full price to come and watch a team that has admitted to its fans that it is not looking to win it all this year does not go over well.
The franchise has to consider those fans as well, and there are a lot of them. Plus, they make a lot more money for the team than, say, this blog.
I’m not advocating selling the farm, or anything like that. I also am fully aware that lean periods are generally necessary evils in between great times when people are scaling the walls to get into Busch. I’m just throwing something out there that takes the decsion whether to “buy or sell” beyond the parameters of just player acquisition.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Jul 28, 2008 10:42 AM EDT reply actions
you're right
they need to reward their loyal customers w/ a competitive team, or the customers won’t stay loyal. but this idea can be carried too far — witness what has happened in houston, where the owner is so paranoid about “proving to the fans that he cares” that he has ended up with a dead-end roster filled with yesterday’s stars — not competitive this year, and not likely to be competitive anytime soon.
in his short-sightedness, he has created the very conditions (fan apathy) he sought to avoid. the cards don’t want to fall into that trap. that’s why mozeliak is charting a middle course — stay competitive today, but build the talent base for tomorrow.
exactly
better to be uncompetitive for a little while, using your time wisely to build the foundations for the next successful phase which will (hopefully) last several years. houston went all in hoping to win on the river apparently (notice my clever texas hold ‘em reference) and will have to spend a few years starting from scratch after this meltdown.
No
I don’t think LB was endorsing being “uncompetitve for a little while.” In fact, he even says “stay competitive today – but build the talent base for tomorrow.”
In essence – no fire sale, but no high-risk gambles either. Boring, sure. But that’s the only way to adhere to the long term goal while still respecting the fan base and obligation to make an honest effort every year.
And, let’s not forget, while a deal like LaPorta for Sabathia is instantly deemed to be a “mortgage of the future,” let’s not forget that maybe Milwaukee knew something about LaPorta or saw something that nobody else saw that led them to believe he’d never really help them anyway. Maybe the Brewers also think they have a great chance to re-sign CC. Hey, they’re the only ones who can talk to him for several months now.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Jul 28, 2008 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
hm. after looking again i see you're right
our situation is of course not necessarily so simple. it’s appropriate to take the middle road in our situation, so my comparison to houston wasn’t really warranted. i guess i’ll try to remain optimistic. man, those four game sweeps really suck…
LaPorta/Sabathia
The Brewers know they’ve got no shot at retaining Sabathia. The difference is a) LaPorta is blocked on their ML team by excellent young players and b) the Brewers haven’t won it all in a while. They’re making a strong push for this year. I don’t think they’ve seen something that nobody else has seen in LaPorta—he’s a stud, he just doesn’t fit with them. Ideally, he’s a 1B and the Prince is entrenched there.
Oh
Where has Doug Melvin said he has no chance to re-sign CC? Or are you just making that declaration about their knowledge yourself?
I agree with you that LaPorta is seemingly blocked by Fielder, but I’m not comparing the Cardinals’ situation, or that of any other team, to the Brewers, so I don’t know why you are talking about a “difference.” I’m saying that the term “mortgaging the future” is a term that outsiders place on teams’ actions when, really, maybe the team doesn’t view it that way at all. That sentiment relates back to my original post, which dealt with how a team is viewed by its fanbase, and how a team must reconclie that perception with its actions.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Jul 28, 2008 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Sabathia
Actually, I believe the Brewers have been pretty candid about the unlikelihood of them being able to fit Sabathia into the payroll—you have to do a little reading between the lines, sure, but no GM is going to come right out and say, “We can’t sign him.” Melvin said:
“We felt we needed to go for it at this point. We feel this is a year that gives us a chance…I’ll worry about next year at the end of [this] season…It was all about, ‘now,’ more so than next year.”So no, I’m not just talking out of my ass. I’m making a fairly informed statement given my knowledge of the Brewers’ payroll situation (Hart and Fielder are due for LARGE salary increases), the consensus on Sabathia’s contract demands (“Santana money”), and the words of their GM. But thanks for the condescensing rhetorical questions anyway.
There’s really no need to get defensive. I agree with you in regards to your “compete now, compete later” point of view. I just don’t think your LaPorta example really makes all that much sense. The Brewers pretty clearly sold the future on this one, they pretty clearly won’t be able to retain Sabathia, and their GM is being pretty damn clear about the fact that they’re giving away a very good young player for a chance at this year.
I don't think there's any question about it
The Brewers need to win THIS year, or come pretty damn close…their fanbase has been very patient with them since the transition to the National League and they have had 2 owners, 3 GM’s (Bando, Taylor and Melvin) and at least 4 managers (Garner, Lopes, Royster and Yost) in that time…if I were a Brewer fan, I would demand action, next year be damned.
No worries
I’m not defensive about anything here. Rather, I’m the type of person who geeks out a bit when a conversation veers off the tangent I thought it would stay on until something is resolved (not that there’s a resolution to this topic, just that I felt that it might generate more discussion and bring up things I hadn’t thought of.)
My bad for throwing that example out there. It led to a dissection of the Brewers current situation that I didn’t intend.
I am well aware of all the Brewers information that you cited and you are correct on all counts. My point is that, even if you “read between the lines” there are still things the public isn’t going to know about when assessing the moves of a franchise. The Brewers case is a bad example, I admit again.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Jul 28, 2008 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions
sold the future?
They sold a player – a really nice player, but its not like they don’t have any prospects. Unless the MLB roster isn’t going to be 25 any more, the idea of “mortgaging the future” is silly.
They also have a lot of payroll coming off the books. If CC wants 6 years at 20-22 million a year, I don’t think there is much chance of him signing. If he is willing to take a shorter deal, they might.
I go to roughly 20 games a season
and i’d like to see them sell still.
I’d give up watching a decent team this year for the chance to watch a spectacular team in the future.
boo cubs, hooray beer
Just curious
How many years in a row do you think you’d do that?
Not trying to be snarky. Just curious as to what time frame for “rebuilding” is acceptable in the eyes of one fan.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Jul 28, 2008 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
that's what I'm always harping about.
I think a team of the cardinals stature should rarely, if ever, be in a rebuild year. 5 year plans are more for teams like bottom-mid market to small market teams. Don’t get me wrong if a series of unfortunate events renders a team useless a year then yeah, okay rebuild…but I would NEVER expect the cards to waive the white flag in the off season like Mo said they were last year.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
You do realize...
St. Louis is one of the smallest markets in MLB, right? Ahead of KC, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, and San Diego. Behind the other 25.
http://home.nycap.rr.com/nickandaj/marketsize.html—this is several years old now, but it’s not like the St. Louis market is a quickly-growing one.
I know there’s a large, spread-out fan base, but that doesn’t do much for your TV contract.
The Cardinals are the best in MLB at maximizing their market, but it’s still one of the smallest markets in the game.
Seriously, San Diego?
That’s a pretty low rank for San Diego considering it’s usually ranked in the top 10 cities for US population.
See this list: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0763098.html
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Jul 28, 2008 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes
But the problem for San Diego is that their TV market is exactly San Diego County. Everything else in southern California is the LA market, desert, or both. It’s 8th in city-limits population, 17th in metro area, and the #27 media market.
A better example of the same point is the city ahead of San Diego in city population: San Antonio. 7th in the city, 28th in metro population, and 37th in media market.
ah
wasn’t aware ank was hurt. Just seems like a rather rough welcome to the big leagues. “Hey Joey, how ya doin? Great! btw, you’re goin up against CC Sabathia and Johan Santana this week.”
by Birds on the Matt on Jul 28, 2008 10:42 AM EDT reply actions
Why Is Fuentes only considered a rental?
We can’t sign him? If we can’t or won’t I would agree why bother trading for him? If we complete a trade with the Rockies I would hope it is with the idea of extending him. Making the right trade will help the team talent wise of course, but it will also give the team an emotional lift. I say buy, but don’t over pay.
Couldn't we also get a exclusive window for re-signing him?
I think this happens in deals sometimes, but I have no clue the logistics of it.
He's making $7.5 now
Is he better than Izzy circa 2007? Because you’d have to pay him in excess of $8 million to keep him.
by Red in Chicago on Jul 28, 2008 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Doesn't that depend
on the reliever? Surely you would spend $8 million on Mariano Rivera, right?
by Red in Chicago on Jul 28, 2008 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Depends on the player
To some degree. Those special once in a generation talents such as Trever Hoffman and Mariano Rivera who are consistent year in and year out might be worth spending that money on over a contract of reasonable length (2 or 3 years). The problem is that with many relievers it is tough to know who are the special ones and who are the one year wonders. More often than not you end up with a one year wonder.
At the same time, many teams throughout the majors each season scrounges around their minor league system and finds a decent closer for a fraction of the cost.If the Cardinals minor league system is doing its jobs, producing both decent starting pitchers and helping those starters who can’t make it transition to successful relievers, then I think the team likely already has a decent closer for right now someone in its system. The key is having the willingness to find out who that is.
Not sure what happend above but the middle line is not a quote and should read:
At the same time, many teams throughout the majors each season scrounge around and find a decent closer.
Cotts says 5.05M
and closers make starters dollars. IF you want to hand the ball to Perez or Mac go ahead. I’ll watch the games from here no matter who is pitching.
He's 33 next month
and will get closer $ on the free agent market. We could sign him—think 3 years and $25 M. I do not want to be paying him $8-9 million in his age 35 and 36 years. Russ Springer’s a nice reliever but would you pay him $8 – 9 million? I wouldn’t. I don’t want to re-sign him. By letting him walk, if we trade for him, we get a number 1 and a supplemental first round draft pick. At least one of, and probably 2-3 of Perez, McClellan, Motte, and Perdomo will do better than Fuentes over the next 3 years and, combined, will make less than Fuentes will in any given year. In year 3 of the contract, the four of them will probably make a million or two more. In any case, we’ll get more for less, A LOT MORE, by letting Fuentes walk than by re-signing a left-handed reliever to a $25 million contract for his age 34, 35 and 36 seasons.
I don't know why
we should assume we would get the draft picks if he walks. Cardinal history indicates they are too cheap-or too frightened- to risk offering arbitration in such cases.
The Cardinals would absolutely offer him arbitration
and hope he accepts. You’d get him for cheaper than free agent market value.
boo cubs, hooray beer
you may be right
but it would be foolish not to offer arbitration. Since he’s a virtual lock to want and receive a long-term deal (barring injury), it would be irresponsible NOT to offer him arbitration. Therefore, I think they would—and he would decline in favor of a long-term deal.
The Reason to buy
is about team chemistry. Situational hitting has been at an all time low. If Mather is a representation of the hitting instruction in the minor league system, the 09 team must be a fantasy for everyone here. I have been watching with purpose for quite a while and I’ve never seen anything like it. Also the Phillies went bust on Blanton I think (duh). They still have their one and three prospects, which I’m sure they would give up for Lohse.
The Cardinal hitters will not swing at pitches in the strike zone. What is that about? I’ve seem Santana pitch 100 games, and this was probably the least contested. Fly ball after fly ball by would be heroes, all sure that they were going to take him deep. Where are the roll players? If this team doesn’t pick up a bat trained out side the system, Pujols is going to lapse into a permanent depression.
Also, using Waino as closer would make everyone else in the pen better, as they might be able to assume more realistic rolls. I would rather be behind 5/3 in the seventh than ahead 3/2 in the eighth with these guys.
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Jul 28, 2008 11:11 AM EDT reply actions
What?
Situational hitting has been at an all time low.
Huh?
The Cards are hitting .269 with RISP, which is 11th in the big leagues. That’s not setting the world on fire or anything, but it is in the top 1/3 of all teams, not “an all-time low.” With RISP and 2 outs, we are hitting .263, which ranks 6th in all of MLB.
As for rather being behind 5-3 in the 7th than up 3-2 in 8th, that’s nonsensical.
He couldn't help himself...
He had to step in and make more ridiculous comments like this:
I would rather be behind 5/3 in the seventh than ahead 3/2 in the eighth with these guys.
Are you f*ing kidding me with that crap? So you’d rather be behind 5-3 with Wainwright in the pen, after you just stated that the Cardinals can’t hit situationally (completely unfounded, btw). Wainwright wouldn’t even pitch if they’re behind, so I’ll take the 3-2 lead in the 8th where the club has a 70% chance of winning, then behind 5-3 with only a 30% chance of winning. Never mind that even when the offense does get the lead coming from behind, you’d still have the same guys in the bullpen to hold that lead.
The Cardinal hitters will not swing at pitches in the strike zone.
Fangraphs and the team OBP completely disagree with you on that statement. Good observation though—are you in any way related to Steve Phillips?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
hey
the guy is wacky, but unlike other users with cockamamie ideas i actually enjoy reading his posts. it seems like in the past, he’s had good information that no one else believed… am i thinking of the right person?
besides, at least he’s not talking about the lighting stanchions…
at least
he doesn’t reference mundane arguments where he was proven to be interpreting other’s comments incorrectly, then keep bringing them up as if it’s license to make a judgement of someone.
Not to mention that the player in question in those arguments is currently leading the American League in hitting.
Where, exactly, in the past has he had any good information that wasn’t related to a wild conspiracy theory that had no factual basis? Even morons are right occasionally.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
i’ll take a good-natured moron over an indignant one!
i am sorry to keep dredging up the “lighting stanchions” thing, but it has been a source of comic relief for me ever since that day. i don’t believe you ever proved that anyone was “interpreting other’s comments incorrectly,” but i would love for you to explain, one more time, how the word “dimensions” is supposed to be interpreted to mean “the way the light reflects.”
Just...WOW
Once again…you interpret everything the way that you want to. I was giving an example - you seem to take that to mean that was my whole point. My point was that each ballpark, again, not ballfield, has different dimensions to it that can cause players who aren’t used to it to perform worse simply because of surroundings that they aren’t accustomed to. You decided that I meant that the light coming off of lighting stanchions is related to what I was talking about when I said dimensions. It isn’t - so if you can’t understand what someone else is saying why don’t you just shut up about it instead of being a jerk-off?
Indignant? Hardly—if anything you’re the indignant one because of your refusal to admit I have a point. As was pointed out in the trade thread earlier today, on the whole, MLB players are 44 points better in OPS this season at home vs away. That’s a good size difference for that many players to just dismiss it out of hand. It’s indignant on your part to state that players playing 81 games in the same ballpark don’t hit better than the average major leaguer, who plays less than 12 games there a year. It also means that you can’t take a player’s road split and extrapolate that to state that’s how that player would perform if he was traded to a team that doesn’t play in an offensive park. My original point was completely valid, so it’s ridiculous that I have to defend myself simply because:
A. You don’t want to admit your wrong
B. You think it’s funny to take something completely out of context and make it a running joke.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
so if you can’t understand what someone else is saying why don’t you just shut up about it instead of being a jerk-off?
touchy much?
forgive me if i don’t understand what you’re saying… it’s just that it doesn’t make any sense. please, go back to this thread and explain to me how we got to your strained definition of “dimensions.” please don’t insult my intelligence just because i didn’t immediately pick up on your own “interpretive” definition of the word.
yes, many players hit better at home than on the road, and even without having personal experience in major league baseball, i imagine this has several contributing factors: no plane ride, a comfortable clubhouse, not as many hecklers calling you a hemorrhoid-ridden douchebag, etc.
but the point stands that certain parks inflate offensive numbers, and others deflate them. this is the premise that you questioned, and you were proven wrong. ian kinsler happens to be a fine offensive player whose value is inflated in texas. that’s all.
and yes, i do think it’s funny as a running joke. sorry, i just do.
furthermore
here’s what you said back then:
Where did I say I was talking about the dimensions of the baseball field? I was referring the dimensions of the park – how the light comes off the lighting stanchions, where the sun is going to play tricks on your eyes, how big the batter’s eye is and how the light reflects off of it at different times during the day. Putting words in my mouth does not prove your argument.
and here’s what you’re saying today:
You decided that I meant that the light coming off of lighting stanchions is related to what I was talking about when I said dimensions. It isn’t.
well, then what the hell are you talking about and how am i supposed to know it?
and i admitted i don’t remember exactly what westcoastbirdwatcher has said in the past, but i thought he’s been pretty accurate in the past with a few “rumors” that had everyone laughing. maybe i just have a VEB crush on its craziest troll.
He correctly
called that we would be getting Kyle Lohse and that he was working out at Scott Boras’ training facility.
"It is easy to be brave from a safe distance." - Aesop
Fourskin,I realize that these
thoughts might be a little beyond you. Let them pass. I’m not necessarily aiming them at you. I am using some abstract baseball “insider” conversational models. The concept of “hit the ball out-front”, has been made obsolete in modern day baseball, thanks to the Mid 90s fastball coupled with a hard slider and change-up. Except in ST. Louis! Everyone else teaches hitters try to stay closed, take the ball deeper, go off-field more, save the turn for the hanger or the discovered change-up. Hal MaCray, apparently believe differently. Oh well!
“THESE GUYS”, some people would realize that I’m being a tiny bit facetious, although at times, I am fighting being mean spirited.
Many of you bloggers have a very short memory’s. Your whining and opinions change with every series. You remind me of Oriental doctors, smelling and tasting and pitching your statistics because you don’t see the wonderful drama, the “human” part of the game. A good example is Miles grand slam. The hell with the home run. Miles took a pitch out of the infield at the “right” time. That has to be applauded here, because it happens so infrequently. Everyone trying not to be the odd man out ,so they’re all looking to boost their power numbers. I’m sure Boris has mentioned that to Ankiel. I predicted this team would not make any moves 6 weeks ago. That they wouldn’t spend any money. And they won’t. If Atlanta gets on us, and the Phillies don’t shoot them selfs in the foot again, I my became a liberty bell boy again.
Some thing to watch for…... Atlanta is down. But, they pitch very well as a general rule, and have been scoring runs. I personally think they are going to be trouble, even with all their injuries.
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Jul 28, 2008 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
"Fourskin" - real mature man
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
i'm asking all parties here to cool it
if anybody disagrees w/ westcoastbird, please do so without insulting the guy. he’s been taking too many personal shots lately. he’s entitled to his opinion — if you disagree with him, do so without turning it into a personal shot at the guy.
westcoastbird —- there’s a reason you’ve been taking so much heat on the blog, in my opinion. i think it’s because you tend to talk down to people and dismiss their opinions as vastly less well informed than your own —- ie, that people who don’t share your opinion of things are too blind or ignorant to fully comprehend. that may not be the intended tone, but that’s how it comes across. express your opinions a little less dismissively, and the pushback won’t be quite as harsh.
Unacceptable
Many of you bloggers have a very short memory’s. Your whining and opinions change with every series. You remind me of Oriental doctors, smelling and tasting and pitching your statistics because you don’t see the wonderful drama, the "human" part of the game.
I’m not quite sure what “Oriental doctors” even means in this context, but it seems to me that it possesses a bit of racism. If so, it’s unacceptable. If I am wrong, westcoastbird, please correct me.
I see your point Larry,
Thank you, my apologies. Bgh, that analogy wasn’t intended to be racist in any way. I am a firm believer in oriental medicine. I am often a patient of oriental practitioners. The metaphor concerns delicate timing issues. Sorry to confuse.
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Jul 28, 2008 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Just as a quick aside
Oriental should NOT be used to refer to people it is considered racist by Asian Cultures since it is used to refer to inanimate objects. I found out about this the hard way.
The saying my Korean friend in HS used to say
“Rugs are oriental, not people”
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
Good advice
Linguistically the oriental/Chinaman objection makes little sense, but it doesn’t matter if people are offended…and some definitely are. We can get by just fine w/o using either term. Personally I find the term “Yankee” offensive…but mostly for baseball reasons :-)
Sorry lb
I just thought calling him “Fourskin” was a little childish. He said below that it was a typo, and while that’s an epic typo, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. fourstick is one of the more thorough posters on this site, and I thought it was a cheap shot, so I called him on it. Apologies to all involved.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
i agree Mr Red re the "fourskin" thing
i wasn’t replying to you specifically — it’s just that your comment was (at that time) that bottom one in the thread, so I replied to it. your comment wasn’t out of bounds.
i’m looking for a way to keep westcoastbird in the community — he has an alternative perspective, which i think is good for the site. but the friction that comes along with his posts is not good for the site, and i think responsibility for that friction is shared on both sides — WCB invites some of it, and some of it is over the top. i don’t expect everybody to agree w/ WCB or vice versa, but i do hope that disagreements can become a little more consructive than they have been . . . .
I like his posts well enough
although I don’t always completely agree, it is a nice alternative viewpoint imo
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 28, 2008 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree, I think it's nice to get a different perspective.....
I generally find stuff within his post that has merit and some stuff I don’t agree with. I never find a reason to go off on the guy though.
To note
“westcoastbird —- there’s a reason you’ve been taking so much heat on the blog, in my opinion. i think it’s because you tend to talk down to people and dismiss their opinions as vastly less well informed than your own”
Westcoast watcher is not the only one on this blog that thinks he has knowledge “on loan from God.”
Sorry for that miss-spell
I see now the it is Fourstick, my spell check screwed up.
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Jul 28, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Extremely
Considering that you seem to, again, be talking way over my head apparently…even though it’s hard to make any sense of your arguments.
The concept of "hit the ball out-front", has been made obsolete in modern day baseball, thanks to the Mid 90s fastball coupled with a hard slider and change-up. Except in ST. Louis! Everyone else teaches hitters try to stay closed, take the ball deeper, go off-field more, save the turn for the hanger or the discovered change-up. Hal MaCray, apparently believe differently. Oh well!
The Cardinals do have some hitters that take some bad swings, Ludwick and Ankiel among them. But to say that the entire organization doesn’t teach hitting effectively is just wrong. For one thing, most of the Cardinal hitters hit from deep in the batters box, take a ton of pitches, draw a lot of walks, and also are able to effectively take the ball to the other field quite well. Very few hitters in the Cardinal lineup are straight pull hitters, if they were there would be a lot more shifting going on in the infield when they’re at the plate.
It’s really, REALLY easy to spit venom from your ivory tower, but you never back up your assertions with any stats or numerical evidence. I, too, would have guessed that this team wouldn’t make a move for a player at the deadline—I just don’t see a lot of players that are affordable that are going to make a ton of difference to this ballclub. You can’t claim that you were “correct because of inside information” when over half the people to vote on the poll for this post think the team should just stand pat anyway. That’s just playing the odds, not necessarily informing the rest of us that you know something we don’t
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Please except my apologies.
I have no venom to offer. In my experience, which is substantial, you are wrong in almost every assumption you’ve made in you statement. The Cards draw so many walks because of the weakness, unevenness in there batting order. I have often seen teams walk two hitters to get to a particular “out”. With Glaus playing better, and Ludwick enjoying his number two role, there would be fewer walks of late is my guess. In fact its probably that configuration that is contributing to Alberts funk. They are showing him allot more border line pitches. If he would be more patient, he would get more walks and better opportunites. He is pressing, and that hasn’t been good. Your analasis of the batters box is illinformed. Sorry.
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Jul 28, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Whatever your reaction to fourstick's comment
you must realize that you rarely (if ever) cite any type of statistical data (or any other type of evidence), don’t you? A lot of people are probably not going to buy into your claims (especially when you are saying your experience is “substantial”—substantial in what?) when there isn’t anything other than seeming (at best) anecdotal evidence.
re: Batters box
Please reconsider whether his analysis of the batters box is ill informed. Look at the majority of ML hitters. Most of them stand as deep as can be, without getting in trouble for it, in the batters box. This allows for more recognition/reaction time to the incoming pitch. Watching the game the other night, the booth, using an overhead camera, showed AP batting. His foot was barely touching the back side of the chalk, i.e. foot outside the box, yet still touching the line. That got me wondering; how many of our hitters do that, or some semblance of it. A quick 3 player google search and this is what I came up with. If youd like me to, I’ll post other pics of non-Cardinal hitters and where they stand.
.jpg)
C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!
by yer dog first on Jul 28, 2008 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
thanks for the picks YDF
it really isn’t about position in the Box. Its about bat or swing path. If a player keeps their weight back and front shoulder closed, head down and over the ball, their hands stay in the hitting zone longer. They tend to make more ””in swing adjustments. This is where opposite field power and control is derived. The real tell, on how a hitter is scouted has to do with how pitchers attack them. I am aware of how DD secret book reads. I tend to watch what pitchers do pitch by pitch. You can get a some guys out on the same combinations for months sometimes. Duncan-Ankiel.
One of the things that pains me about the Cardinal approach has to do with my favorite, Rick Ankiel. A tremendous natural talent, like Josh Hamilton. His tendency, understatement, is to swing too hard and to long, unlike Hamilton. His inability to make swing path adjustments has him panicking, taking and offering at many bad pitches. He needs to study a hitter with a “levers” swing like John Olerud. This would help him start and adjust to a pitch without committing to soon. He doesn’t need to hit it 600ft. 350 will often do it.
If you watch Cardinal hitter, watch how they practice opening the hips and shoulder early, as the do their “waggle” in the box. Then watch how pitchers pound the outside and also attack their hands because their front foot is planted too early. If your first move is to clear the hips and open the shoulders, you will hit mistakes and fools, no one else. Did any body notice Albert “toeing in” last night. Thats creeping with your front foot from an open to closed position or visa versa. Watch the catchers look down at the batters feet before they call the pitch. You don’t see batters move much after the setup because there is an understanding amongst player that they well throw at you if you try moving around. Back to my rehearsal.
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Jul 28, 2008 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't do this often...
but I’m going to agree with westcoast on this one.
I was doing my scouting reports at the beginning of the year, just so I had an informed opinion to go off of when I was writing about players. I made up little notecards on each Cardinal hitter.
On my Ankiel notecard, I have this:
swing looks awfully long to me, and too aggressive. Seems like you could just eat this guy up inside, as his swing tends to go out and around a bit. Opens up awfully early. Go above his hands, and he won’t be able to catch up to it. Lots of holes.
I look at Ankiel now, and I see basically the same tendencies. He has definitely improved his plate discipline, I feel, but his swing still has almost all of the same tendencies. I don’t understand why that hasn’t been worked on. It really does seem to me as if an awful lot of the Cardinal hitters struggle to adjust to what pitchers are trying to do to get them out. Especially when it comes to throwing pitches away away away. Ludwick, Ankiel, Skip, even Glaus all seem to have swings geared primarily to getting that front shoulder well out of the way and pulling the ball.
I wonder…could this possibly be part of the reason the Cards drop off so much in the middle innings? I may just have something new to look into…
Why don't you just make like a tree, and get out of here?
by the red baron on Jul 28, 2008 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for the read Baron.
Do you scout for the team? This might seem odd, but I actually believe that the gratification and crowd reaction to a leverage home run, causes an endorphin cascade that is highly addictive. Ha Ha at least I hope their just junkies.
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Jul 28, 2008 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Doesn't sound odd at all.
Everything in life is addictive if it produces joy. (Psychologically, of course.) A player hits one dramatic home run, the crowd goes wild, he gets the curtain call, he can’t stop smiling, he starts scanning the stands for two or three twenty year old girls he might try to take home after the game…
Well, you do that once, suddenly a routine line drive base hit into the hole between short and third just doesn’t seem all that exciting any more. That’s a huge part of the reason we see players unable to stay within themselves and do what needs to be done, rather than swinging for the fences every single time. That’s why when you see a player with the discipline to stay within himself, a guy like Albert (who, even as great as he is, occasionally tries to be a hero), it absolutely stands out. A guy who can hit that big home run and then still stay back on a changeup and take it the other way for a single or accept a walk if they aren’t giving him anything meaty is an extraordinary thing.
Playing the game of baseball on a constant, out of control high is impossible. You see football players all the time, banging helmets and screaming and dancing and all of that, trying to get themselves as psyched up as possible. That tremendous endorphin and adrenaline rush can make all the difference in the world when you’re trying to overpower the guy across from you. In baseball, though, being that keyed up is just going to lead to you taking bad at bats, or trying to overthrow, or diving for a ball you shouldn’t dive for and allowing an inside the parker. Baseball is all about discipline, about subjugating that desire, that need, for instant hero, for constant glory, in favour of the small, quiet things that help a team win ballgames. Your idea about the chemical effects of drama and being the Man is absolutely accurate.
And no, I don’t scout for the team. I just write about them here and over at my RFT gig.
Why don't you just make like a tree, and get out of here?
by the red baron on Jul 29, 2008 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
All true save for the 3 girl analogy Baron
Two will do! Three looks to be down right dangerous….....and 20yr olds tend to be to intellectual….........ha
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Jul 29, 2008 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Mather may be our new Reyes, but only because Barton is down and is not available to have Skips stinking left handed bat waved in his face, but one of the two are gonna sit. Only its purely Tony in this case, because Dave Duncans no where near this one.
They DLed little Duncan to keep him out of the trade talk and rampant demands for demotion, or more. They refuse to realign the 40 man so it makes any sense to anybody. They like seeing their name thrown in the trade talk rags because its good press for fans.
Theres been no effort to resolve the Franklin/Izz situation so I dont think we’re buying or selling until Carpenter and Wainwright make it an absolute neccessity to do all of the above and then move two starters to the BP to shore up the back end. Nothings going to happen until after the DL empties, unless its a side order of fries.
I dont think the Rockies are sellers anyway. Halladay for cash and Garcia plus two or three mariginal propects and/or McCellan is tempting!
by cardschinmusic on Jul 28, 2008 11:29 AM EDT reply actions
And...
Jay and Skipper and other marginals …could join McClellan in Canada and leave LH Garcia here, but nothing is most likely whats gonna happen.
by cardschinmusic on Jul 28, 2008 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Wow.....
That would be one delusional way of looking at things.
by SoonerfanTU on Jul 28, 2008 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I see you shooting...
....off your mouth (or is it fingers LOL!) quite a bit w/o ever backing it up, tell us why “nothings gonna happen until they see how Waino and Carpenter fit in” is delusional.
Unless you were narrowly focusing on the Halladay trade, which probably wont happen either and me having fun with the conspiracy crap?.....Tell us how you have your finger firmly on the pulse of reality and are privy to the inner workings. I really would like to hear it.
by cardschinmusic on Jul 29, 2008 5:35 AM EDT up reply actions
solid, music man
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Jul 29, 2008 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
More Trade Speculation
The Boston Globe seems to think that we are the frontrunners for Burnett:
The Cardinals, despite the fact they will soon get back Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, have the best shot because Burnett wants to go to St. Louis and he has a no-trade clause to 15 teams. The Blue Jays and Cardinals have also done business before, with the Troy Glaus-Scott Rolen swap.
As an aside
Why is it that when a GM has made a trade before with another GM, those GM’s are more apt to make a second trade. After giving up Glaus for Rolen why would the Jays want to do business with Mo again?
Do the Jays consider that trade as one-sided as we do?
I mean they were looking to get rid of Glaus, and they got a major-league quality replacement for him. I don’t think that trade would make them trigger shy with us.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
+1
I agree, There was risks on both sides. Both had under performing injury plagued third baseman looking for a change of scenery
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 28, 2008 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
but this is just speculation
there’s nothing in that statement that says we’re even talking to the Jays, much less that we’ve actually proposed some players for Burnett. Does AJ to the Cards make sense? Only if we come up w/ enough players to entice the Jays. Burnett’s very good but he scares me b/c of the contract, the opt-out clause, and his injury history.
Yes, JUST speculation
Which is why I labeled it as such. There are a lot of journalists playing GM these days and throwing out ideas and their opinions on who matches up best with whom. I view this Globe speculation as exactly that. I agree with you wholeheartedly on why Burnett is a scary gamble, especially in light of what it would take to pry him away from the Jays.
I think we've definitely at least put in a telephone call
given the past interest. In fact, I read that 15 teams have checked in with Toronto. His no-trade list has 15 names on it, leaving 13 available clubs. In other words, you can pretty much assume every major league team with a shot at him has talked to Ricciardi.
Moreover, Strauss wrote this up last week. His info about the front office, frankly, is as good as it gets. I think they are really intrigued by the idea of adding him, provided he reverses the player option or agrees not to exercise it.
Would a LOOGy, closer and Burnett be enough to make a run this year? Or would it take a bat as well?
by Red in Chicago on Jul 28, 2008 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting
I wonder if they’d be ok with an Anderson/Mortenson/Perez package…Not that it matters b/c who the hell knows where these writers get their info. Maybe the Globe guy talked to a bat boy who said that Burnett watched a Cards game one time or something like that.
Anyway, Burnett scares the hell out of me b/c, as is mentioned below, his contract isn’t terribly advantageous. He’s also a mortal lock to miss significant amounts of time. But he’s got a ton of ability…
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 28, 2008 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Burnett is from Arkansas, which is firmly within the borders of Cardinal Nation
So, that tidbit is somewhat believable. But his desire to play for St. Louis takes a backseat to guaranteed years in a contract.
Yeah, true
I remembered that, but I also remember hearing that when he signed with the Jays that that didn’t have anything to do w/ where he was going to play. Who knows…Like you said, the large contract he is due is MUCH more of an issue than his “desire” to play here.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 28, 2008 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Worth considering
To me, adding a starter (perhaps not Burnett, but he might be the best deal out there) makes sense if we really are trying to win this year AND not mortgage the future. If we could get him for a package not including Rasmus/Garcia, et al. A decent starter, plus the return of Carp and Wainer (and I think we all agree those two have to come back for us to have a prayer), would make Lohse and Pinero our nos. 4 and 5, and push Looper and Welly to the bullpen, which would fix that at least as well as a Fuentes plug-in (still no closer, but plenty of options).
That doesn’t address, of course, Burnett’s injury history or contract. I was just thinking of a way to win this year without writing off ‘09.
"I don't believe what I just saw!" ~ Jack Buck
by itsalemmon1019 on Jul 28, 2008 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Welcome back lb
One error I noticed in your post, however. You said:
if they’d simply held the leads in games 2 and 4 of [the Brewers] series, the cards would be 12-10 this month —hardly a team in eclipse -- and 2 games back of the cubs, a game back of the crew.
If we had split with the Brewers we’d actually be two games back of the Cubs and a game ahead of the Brewers, since we take two games out of the loss column and into the win column for us, and also take two games out of the win column and into the loss column for the Brewers. I’ll blame it on the airport hell you’ve gone through :D
[/nitpicking]
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
One thing about the Brewers.....
I was watching Baseball Tonight with #1 son and he pointed out that Ryan Braun is turning into a superstar right in front of our eyes. I think he might be right. Moving him to the outfield sure makes him look like a better all around player. It was a wise decision on Yost’s part. They are drawing fans; they are going to be able to pick and choose who they keep around going forward. The NL Central teams are going to be forced to kick it up a notch…...we all better hope the Cards draft and trade well from here on out-and fill in the blanks with free agent signings.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
I agree that Braun is a superstar in the making, if not one already
I truly believe in 2-3 years from now, he’lll be in the conversation with Pujols/ARod/Manny/Chipper as best pure hitter in the game.
That being said, i’m not that impressed with the Brewers. Yes they swept us over 4 games, but it’s not as though they put a beat down on us. They beat our bullpen in 2 of the games, and if our bullpen was competent enough that TLR wasn’t afraid to use it, we likely would’ve won Lohse’s game as well. As for the future, their farm system isn’t nearly as good as it once was. They still have a few good players like Alcides Escobar and Mat Gamel, but those two are players without positions. JJ Hardy will be their shortstop for quite some time, and I don’t see them giving up on Rickie Weeks already. I’ve also read that come free agent time, Prince Fielder will most likely test the waters. They don’t seem to have a prospect ready to replace him now that LaPorta is gone.
Next year their pitching staff will get a boost from a healthy Yovani Gallardo, but their is about a 90% chance they lose both Sheets and Sabathia. Add to that they still don’t have a real closer or much of a bullpen at all, and they really don’t look all that impressive.
That’s just my opinion though.
boo cubs, hooray beer
I don't think
Braun has the plate discipline to be an elite player along the lines of Pujols/ARod/ and Miguel Cabrera. I think he’ll always remain a notch below them, though he is very good.
Braun
Braun to me is the typical power guy, I would compare him to Dunn, Holiday, etc. not the pure hitter type guys like AROD and AP.
I'd say he's closer to Holliday than Dunn
Dunn is a three true outcomes guy, Braun isn’t.
boo cubs, hooray beer
Ah, airports!
I suppose everyone has their own nightmare airport stories. I was flying back with the family from Belize last summer, and we had to go through the Miami International Airport. Here were the highlights of that lovely evening…
Our plane left before we got to the airport due to our flight being held up in weather. We were directed in the wrong direction three times by the people who work there. Once, we were sent into the security checkpoint. All we wanted was to book a new flight, not get on one! We had to stay there overnight due to not having a flight to St. Louis, or even one we could connect with to the ‘Lou, until the next morning. They keep the airport at approximately 55 degrees Fahrenheit. Not good for sleeping. We watched about 55 people come out of one store after it had closed. Something shady going on there I think. Some security lady apparently had no job other than to move those line-controller doo-dads around, because she did this for about half an hour while we were trying to check in for our 6 am flight. They let a long line buildup at the security checkpoint, at which point it dawned on them that there were a lot of people there. Hmm…So then their solution was to take the back half of the line through a newly opened station, screwing all the people who had been waiting in line earlier. Everyone who works for the airport is bilingual, but none really speak either Spanish or English well enough to communicate with anyone. I speak passable Spanish, and I could tell even the Spanish speakers had any damn clue what these employees were saying.
What a steaming pile of ineptitude!
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 28, 2008 12:15 PM EDT reply actions
This just in....
The Nationals are the first team to be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.
They have to have some kind of record for position players on the DL. What a brutal year for them….....
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
A bit confused I am...
the Nats are only 19 games out with 57 left to play…their elimination number is at 39 per MLB.com. Am I missing a punch line here?
I think Jill was just kidding
but I get her point…they may as well be eliminated, because they are in sad shape!!
Maybe it was more of a prediction than a statement of fact?
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
Baseball Prosepectus
BP had a post this morning on the results of their 1000 simulations of how the season would end and today was the first time that any team didn’t have at least a 1/1000 chance of making the playoffs with their simulator. The M’s made it 5 times and are the next worst.
Canada to US for Tax Reasons.
I wonder how much Taxes come into play in where a player signs. I am under the impression that taxes are about 5% higher for the highest bracket in Canada compares to the US. Anyone know more info about the subject
I always thougth this was an issue with hockey players too
With U.S. teams being more “attractive” due to taxes and the value of the US dollar compared to the Canadian dollar (which probably isn’t much of an issue anymore). Also, I think i heard something about Florida and Texas teams being more attractive to free agents since those states don’t have a state tax on income or something.
Could be completely off base though.
I found a way to cheer myself up about this season/next season
I checked Cot’s Contracts to verify that, yes, this is the last year of Mulder’s contract.
I'm pretty happy about where we'll be monetarily
Encarnacion comes off the books (imagine if he were crowding the outfield!), too.
I see these guys as coming off the books:
Encarnacion: $6.5 million
Mulder: $5 million ($6.5-$1.5)
Isringhausen: $8 million
Looper: $5.5 million
Lohse: ~$4.5 million
Springer: $3.5 million
Izturis: $2.85 million
Clement: $1 million
Miles: $1.5 million
Flores: $1 million
Do I have that right? Are all those guys due to have their contracts expire?
Yes, true
buy you know that Miles will be back. And payroll will likely be LESS than what it is this year.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 28, 2008 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I would imagine
That Pujols contract will be discussed during the off-season. Maybe extend Glaus too? So far, the most glaring need during the off-season will be MIF and perhaps a closer if Perez isn’t ready, ergo…. the payroll will not be as low as we may think.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Jul 28, 2008 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
DON'T EXTEND GLAUS!
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.
Sorry, the idea of him lumbering about the infield at 35 years old makes me cringe.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 28, 2008 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm with you on that.....
We’ve seen him healthy-but this is something new for him. He has an extensive injury history. Just say no to extending him-plenty of time to review options before doing that.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
I hear you ,too...
if we’re in need of a three-sacker after next season I’m all for signing him to a one year deal (which he probably won’t do), but with Freese, Barden, Craig and Wallace in the system now I feel we may be okay at third in 2010.
Brett Wallace could be ready to go in 2010
At least, that’s what I heard awhile ago. Let Glaus finish out his contract and let him walk.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
Indeed
The Walrus was listed as one of the most polished hitters in the draft. He’s probably ready to go in a few years, tops. I’d imagine him as the heir apparent for the 3B job, even with Freese and Craig around.
re: freese and craig
They certainly do not project to be even close to replacing the output at 3rd we are used to getting with Glaus and Pre-Broke or even this year’s Rolen. Brett Wallace may be the real deal but until he’s good to go unless you will need to significantly upgrade other positions because 3b will be added to the Gucci Purse 4some MIF.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
BA Prospect Hot Sheet
No. 3 ALLEN CRAIG, 3B
CARDINALS
Team: Double-A Springfield (Texas)
Age: 24
Why he’s here: .536/.581/.786 (15-for-28), 6 R, 4 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBIs, 3 BB, 3 SO
The Scoop: Craig turned 24 a week ago, which is when his streak of five straight multi-hit games began. It hasn’t just been one hot week for Craig, who is batting .298/.364/.493 in 406 at-bats for Springfield. Craig has hit .368/.417/.641 in 117 at-bats since the Texas League all-star break, showing good bat speed and power to all fields. He’s a little bit old for Double-A, but his stock has risen considerably since the Cardinals made him an eighth-round pick out of California two years ago.
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 28, 2008 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
predictions...
carpenter returns, posting a 7-0 record with a 0.00 ERA.
wainwright returns, posting a 5-0 record with a 0.00 ERA.
josh kinney returns to the bullpen, posting a 2-0 record as closer with a 0.00 ERA.
the cardinals go undefeated for the remainder of the season, with a 325-0 RS/RA…
...then lose in the World Series to the Cleveland Indians.
by longhornscardinals on Jul 28, 2008 1:44 PM EDT reply actions
oh yeah...
and anthony reyes closes out the world series with a no-hitter, posting 27 strikeouts.
by longhornscardinals on Jul 28, 2008 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I just wish the trade deadline was over with already
so we can fully devote our attention to how awful the bullpen/lineup and rotation have been this past week!
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 28, 2008 2:05 PM EDT reply actions
Stand Pat
Don’t sell and don’t get rid of any prospects for a 2 month rental. This team is streaky… I still think we’ll make one more run at it before it’s said and done.
THE SKIP IS LEGIT!!
Seriously... what were Rich Harden's parents thinking?!?!?!
i take it back
this team isn’t that streaky.. but we’ve gone though losing streaks before and rebounded well.
THE SKIP IS LEGIT!!
Seriously... what were Rich Harden's parents thinking?!?!?!
Wonder what it would have taken to get Jason Bay?
A proposed deal, which would have brought Jason Bay to Atlanta in exchange for four Minor Leaguers, was killed when presented to the Pirates owners for approval.Bowman believes Pirates targets might include Brent Lillibridge, Brandon Jones, a talented A ball pitcher, and a marginal position player prospect. He says the Braves will continue to pursue Bay.
Would the Braves take Ludwick for Lillibridge instead?
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 28, 2008 2:11 PM EDT reply actions
We should try to get more for Luddy if we want to trade him
Lillibridge + others
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
I didn't mean straight up
I was talking about the same deal as above for Ludwick.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 28, 2008 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
But we already have Glaus manning 3rd base
Oh the other Jones :P
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
Sell, Sell, Sell
I love Ludwick and he has an amazing story, but if we could flip him right now for that return, Mo should immediately do it. It fills a need at SS and clears the path for Rasmus. Sure, I’d rather not have four lefties in the OF mix, but how hard is it to find a righty OFer to platoon with Skippy? Of course, isn’t Luddy about one year older than Bay? Of course, he is significantly cheaper, too…
well I clicked on "buy"
Ive been against it all year but I think they need a closer.
I dont have a lot of confidence in Perez, who knows whats going to happen with him.
I know a closer is very important to this team and its a volatile position with a lot of flame outs and a lot of “this guy is a great pitcher but he just cant close out games in MLB”
IF we trade for a closer, we still have Perez around (hopefully) to set up and learn to pitch up here, and maybe take over as closer for next year. This will help the pen too.
about half our save chances this year were blown, and about half our losses this year are pen losses.
It just seems we need some good arms there, and if we could have a Perez and a Fuentes in the pen it would help this year…and next if we sign him.
This team could very well be in 1st place with any kind of competent arm closing.
and what happens if Perez doesnt get it sorted out? and we are counting on him next year?
What happens if he gets Octavio Dotel/LaTroy Hawkins syndrome and turns out to be a great pitcher…who just cant close for whatever reason?
We are sunk
Just my uneducated opinion
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
will Farnsworth be next...???
actually I dont even know if he is still playing as of now. Last I heard he was with the Yankees
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Jul 28, 2008 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
LaTroy & Farnsworth
they are/were both with the Yankees. LaTroy got DFA’d to make room for Damaso Marte after the trade with the Pirates. Farnsworth is still in their pen and has pitched better of late. He might still be considered their set-up man. Anyways I don’t think he’ll be DFA’d.
As far as LaTroy Hawkins goes if the Yankees release him maybe the Cards should kick the tires. He couldn’t be much worse than what they’ve got now. The DFA specials worked out ok in 2006, but not so much last year.
Big series
The next four days will be really telling in the scheme of the 2008 season (seems like we’ve been saying that for a week or so, right?). While we have four against Atlanta, the Cubs and Brewers will be facing off in a four-game series of their own. If we can somehow right the ship and take care of business in the ATL we’ll be able to pick up ground on at least one of them. The best-case scenario IMO is that we sweep the Braves and the Cubs and Brewers split. If that’s the case, we’re two back of the Cubs and one back of the Brewers. Of course, if we sweep Atlanta and the Brewers sweep Chicago, we’ll be tied with the Cubs for second at three games out.
Side note: I’ll be at Thursday’s game (Pineiro, blech). I won’t be able to watch Carp’s start Wednesday because an old friend is coming to visit (we’ve had it planned for a couple of months now, well before I knew how important Wednesday would be for the Cards) on her way back to Auburn from DC. I’ll be sure to take pictures and/or video of Thursday’s game.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
I don't want the Cubs to sweep the Brewers
I want it to be a 2-2 split or…
an earthquake occurs that opens up a giant crevice in the center of the stadium and all the players fall in.
Either one.
boo cubs, hooray beer
sweep
I’d actually prefer that the Brewers swept the Cubs since we have more games left with the Cubs at this point anyway. I have a feeling it’s going to be a 2-2 split considering how the starting pitching lays out in the series.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I'm going to flip flop here and say
that the Cubs will more than likely win the Central now. I kept pointing out that their road heavy September schedule will be there downfall…but then I looked more close at their August schedule. In August they have 19 home games mostly against non contenders except for us and the Phillies and they have 9 road games with three of those being against the Pirates (a team they have dominated this season). I think they are going to really make some hay that month where even their road heavy schedule in Sept. might not hurt them as much. I think the Cubs will go something like 20-8 in August and will take a 5-6 game lead in the division by the end of August. I do think Milwaukee should still win the Wild Card.
Of course I hope this doesn’t happen…but it’s the way I am seeing it unfold right now.
It's a meteor game
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
beautiful!
Im a FSU fan, alum and that is priceless!
I agree, meteor games are in order.
C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!
by yer dog first on Jul 28, 2008 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Lotsa believers out there huh?
I chose sell. I figured I’d be in the minority, but still I was surprised by how few of us there were.
I’d trade high of Lohse and maybe even Lud. It would be the smart move for the longterm.
The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!
I'm all for trading high on Lohse...
and maybe seeing what we could get for Ludwick. Lohse is not in next year’s plans IMO, and with Carp and WW coming back (if we’re going to win this year these guys have to contribute) we have a starting pitching surplus…Lohse’s value has to be at it’s peak (well it was before yesterday), if we can get something better than two high draft picks for him we should. Ludwick OTOH had better bring in a haul if we’re going to move him. He’s a legit hitter and IMO will be a very valuable part of our OF for at least two more years. I’d rather see the team try and move Skip, as I don’t think he’s a significant part of our future, of course he has no where near the value Ludwick does.
Like I said, I might move Lud
The thing is he projects to be our only righty OFer next year and I kind of believe that he is somewhat “for real.” But if we could get a big return on the guy I wouldn’t be opposed to the risk.
The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!
Do yourselves a favor and read the rotoworld sidebar
TLR just gave Ryan Franklin his vote of confidence for closer still. That has got to be a ploy to get Mo to make a move, otherwise i’ve lost all faith in Tony La Russa
boo cubs, hooray beer
This sort of reminds me of '03
When La Russa started Jeff Fassero for 6 games. A bizarre decision that many interpreted as a plea for help.
if it's a ploy, it's a desperate one
dusty baker did the same thing right before his ouster from chicago — he kept using corey patterson as his leadoff man, despite patterson’s obvious unfitness for the job, with the explanation that “until the front office makes a move, he’s the best guy i’ve got.”
Isn't this his last resort, though?
He’s asked for help privately, he’s asked for help in the papers publicly. Now, he only has two options…resign or hold his breath until he gets his way.
It appears he is choosing to hold his breath. Don’t worry, he’ll pass out and start breathing again before any real damage is done.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 28, 2008 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
He can hold his breath...
But I’m sure that he was in on the conversations to send Perez down when he hadn’t been pitching nearly as bad as some of the mainstays in the Cardinal pen. I just don’t think the team is going to make a move that will hurt the future of the club if it’s just for a 2 month rental on a reliever. The way I look at it, one reliever just isn’t going to shore up the problems in the bullpen.
I think it would be better to wait and see if moving Looper or Wellemeyer to the pen when Carpenter and Wainwright come back would help to shore it up at all.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
when they sent perez down
there really wasn’t anyone ese to send down then. You can make a case that he is better than Franklin or Izzy. But we can’t send franklin or Izzy to Memphis.
Bernie thinks Perez
may be the next “Reyes”....... (sacastically) great!
(listening to Bernie on 1380AM on the internet)
Perez is a pretty different animal
Reyes was the club’s No. 1 prospect who blossomed for about a month, then got in the doghouse and, somehow put on the performance of his life in Game 1. He was always under immense pressure as the farm system was awful when he was coming up. Perez has lots of company in the prospect department, and was sent down to work on a pitch that he already can throw. Reyes spent much of his time trying to learn a two-seam fastball that never really did work, not to mention changing his approach to pitch-to-contact. As far as I know, Perez’s approach is pretty much the same now as it was in the spring.
by Red in Chicago on Jul 28, 2008 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I used to like him
Than once I got to know him I hated him.
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 28, 2008 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
as in the next to be traded?
or bounced back from the minors to the bigs the next few years?
THE SKIP IS LEGIT!!
Seriously... what were Rich Harden's parents thinking?!?!?!
As in "Not fitting the profile" of the current coaching staff
deja vu all over again!
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Jul 28, 2008 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
his words.... not mine
I think his little battle with Duncan is getting worse.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Jul 28, 2008 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn't Bernie and D. Duncan at odds with each other?
mostly about C. Duncan percieved negative media comments.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Jul 28, 2008 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry, to clarify
Negative comments from the media about C. Duncan.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Jul 28, 2008 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Could be
I thought you might be stating that there was a rift between Perez and Duncan. I mean, sure, Perez throws a scalding fastball and strikes batters out, which is fascist. Duncan believes in the more democratic approach: grounders. Even from his closer. Why strike batters out in an inning when you can give up grounders? Any red-blooded American would believe in this democratic philosophy.
Don't believe it because Bernie said it.
He loves to get in the middle of these controversies to make himself important. If Strauss says there’s a genuine rift, then I will start to think it’s true.
by Red in Chicago on Jul 28, 2008 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
no offense, but I don't trust Strauss either
the only PD Cardinals reporter worth a damn is Derrick Goold.
boo cubs, hooray beer
Goold is ok
But he took a hit here, in my opinion. “It’s in the DNA of his grit” may be the stupidest sentence in the history of sports journalism.
It's in the same strand as the height, speed, and strength genes
If one doesn’t have much in the “skill genes,” then evolution compensates with more of the “grit genes.” Duh.
2 years ago
I think he has recovered from any hit that may have caused him. Also I cant find the actual article but I bet it was a tongue and cheek comment not to be taken seriously.
Derrick Goold
really writes in an amateurish style. His one-sentence paragraphs are overused. Strauss writes more smoothly, with more polish and fewer affectations.
Goold also doesn’t have the sources inside the club that Strauss has. He does fine with features, but the only breaking news about the club is going to come from Strauss almost all of the time. Perhaps with time, if someone who help polish his writing, Goold will be a big-time beat writer. But he’s nowhere near that today.
by Red in Chicago on Jul 28, 2008 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions
unless it is prospect related
then Goold is the best source, Goold is growing as a writer and to me he is the best we have for the type of commentary he provides, but for the “game recap” I think he is wasted and I would rather he never write those type of stories.
If we don't make the playoffs
and if management doesn’t give Tony some help over the next week I have a feeling Tony & Company might pack up there stuff and head out of town after this season…so this might be a non factor.
Yeah I have that feeling
as well. This is kind of a moral test that Tony is giving to Mo & Co.: Can you keep a fiercely competitive manager happy and rebuild whilst trying to win, too?
by Red in Chicago on Jul 28, 2008 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Let me see if I get this
TLR is so demanding of getting help via trade that he is intentionally trotting out horrid relievers and throwing games? Furthermore, he has cast off the organization’s best relieving prospect in a game of chicken with the front office?
Not exactly
The speculation is he’s trotting out the same incompetent relievers to make a point to the front office. I think sending Perez down was somewhat unrelated.
by Red in Chicago on Jul 28, 2008 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Snice Mo would be the one who would send perez down...
I don’t think that works that way. Tony isn’t stashing Perez and then telling Mo he needs more players.
Convaluted
This discussion has gotten convaluted. It just seems odd that he stands by and up for Franklin and Izzy while casting Perez off, which would not have happened if he did not want it to. Meanwhile, he claims the offense is to blame for the bullpen’s failures. It’s truly bizarre behavior.
Bernie
Was waving the Perez for closer flag as soon as he got up here. I don’t think Perez is the next Reyes. He wasn’t stashed in AAA just to be out of the way of Tony and Duncan. He is there for a reason. I don’t recall Tony or Duncan every saying anything bad about Perez.
I think Perez is going to out last Tony and Duncan in St. Louis anyway.
Perez
Don’t get me wrong, I think he is a good player but I think he is tradeable…. You can not be afraid to trade guys who only project to be bull pen guys, no matter how good they are. It’s different when talking about starting pitchers as many starters could move to the bull pen if they fail as startes as a last hope.
I just don’t get how Perez makes the untouchable list for so many people… Look he is good and I would like him to be pitching for the big club but look around MLB he does not really stand out as every team has a guy very similar to Perez.
I didn't mean to imply he was untouchable.
Just that if he isn’t traded he is going to last longer in St. Louis than Tony and Duncan. I can see Tony leaving at the end of his contract.
Not really replying to your particula post...
I was just replyed to your post because it was about Perez and I wanted to add my two cents about Perez.
I think you are correct unless he gets traded....
Perez most likely will be around longer than Tony and Dave.
Ohman on the radar
Jayson Stark tosses out the Cards as having called about Ohman:
Mark Teixeira doesn’t figure to be the only Brave who will get traded this week. If the Braves also put left-handed reliever Will Ohman on the market, they’ll have “no problem” moving him, said an official of one interested club.Teams that already have called about Ohman include the Tigers, Rays, Yankees and Cardinals.
I'm sure if Mozeliak was really thinking about making moves
at the deadline, he is now scurrying a bit since Holliday and Fuentes are off the market.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 28, 2008 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I wish you were right Hardcore
unfortunately, all you have to do is make a call to get your name int the Rumors list.
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Jul 28, 2008 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Dan O'Dowd said they are buyers now
not sellers, since they are hot and are now only 6 games back in the division.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 28, 2008 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Will Ohman
does the best Harry Caray impersonation ever. He did it when he was announcing the braves lineup on the saturday game on TBS and it was phenomenal. The video was on youtube, but they removed it
boo cubs, hooray beer
Best one I've seen
Scores better than Ryan Dempster
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
nitram odart
haha nice
THE SKIP IS LEGIT!!
Seriously... what were Rich Harden's parents thinking?!?!?!
thats a bad impression of Will Ferrell doing a characture of Harry Caray.
Seriously, has eveyone forgotten what Harry Caray actually sounded like?
Yeah, I've heard way better ones,
but still, he’s pretty funny. Seems like a great guy to keep the bullpen loose.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 28, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I would love him
Hasn’t give up a run from the left side all year
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 28, 2008 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Just for giggles
if this team really was a “buyer” and basing on the more recent rumors..
You know who would make a great closer? A guy with a 97+ mph fastball, plus breaking pitches and a great mound presence.
AJ Burnett.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 28, 2008 3:45 PM EDT reply actions
Burnett would not accept closer duties
he stands to make more as a starting pitcher. and if there is one thing AJ Burnett likes, it’s money.
boo cubs, hooray beer
Pretty sure I didn't say he would convert to closer
for the rest of his life, just 3 more months.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 28, 2008 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
It's not a terrible idea
But would you rather have your starter every fifth day be Joel Pineiro or A.J. Burnett?
by Red in Chicago on Jul 28, 2008 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Today's poll
I can infer from today’s poll that the Cardinals’ fanbase (at least the ones who read this blog) are undecided on how the club should move forward. None of the three options has a majority of the votes. Does that mean tomorrow there should be a runoff between “Stand pat” and “Buy”?
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
The problem with todays poll . . .
is it doesn’t allow us to give the right answer.
Look, this isn’t the prisoner’s dilemma, where there is only one variable (what you think your colleague/prisoner said under questioning). The question is what deals are on the table for MO, and there is huge variability there, on both the buy and sell side. In my opinion he needs to be open to buying or selling, depending on where the value lies. If someone offers Brian Roberts and wants Mather and Perez in exchange (relax, it’s only a hypothetical), you have to make that deal. But if someone wants to give us 3 A+ prospects for Kyle Lohse, I think you have to seriously consider that deal, because of what it could mean for the next 3-4 years.
I’d feel differently if we were 5 games out in front or 10+ games out. But I think we sit on the bubble, and we should take advantage of that position by taking the best deal that comes along, either way.
So I guess in short I disagree with Mo’s public position per LB’s post at top. If he’s only interested in being a buyer, he’s overlooking the chance to take advantage of another team’s desperation, to our significant and long-term advantage.
by Secret Weapon on Jul 28, 2008 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh no.
Don’t you go bringing game theory into this discussion. I tried to work up an article over at the RFT that examined the draft in game theory terms, and I nearly went all John Nash on everybody.
You can take your theoretical mathematics and just go home.
Why don't you just make like a tree, and get out of here?
by the red baron on Jul 28, 2008 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions
to paraphrase the award-winning* tom selleck filmd "mr. baseball"...
baseball is a game… game (theories) are supposed to be fun!
*film may not have won any awards
About the only thing I remember is the main character trying to convince
the manager he shouldn’t be let go by coming up with some obscure, meaningless stat – “But I led the league in late-inning doubles in night games in the month of August!!” or something to that effect.
by BTown Birds fan on Jul 28, 2008 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Looking at the Braves series this week
Since it looks like both Chipper Jones and Brian McCann will both be out because of injuries and the real posibility that Teixeria might be traded in the next couple of days we are going to be playing a really weak Braves team. In my mind if we don’t take at least 3-4 then there is NO WAY we should consider ourselves contenders. So yeah while the Brewers & Mets series have really made many of us doubt our team…this series will really tell us what we are in my opinion. Taking 3-4 or sweeping this this series is what any play-off team would do….can we do it though?
If we don't win this series
then we should start selling parts like they are stocks on Friday.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 28, 2008 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Doubly important
What with Milwaukee and Chicago at each others’ throats. The two ought to tread water this week, allowing for us to make up ground playing the DL-inflicted Braves.
Well, on a total dollars basis
I seriously doubt the Cardinals have any competition for the heavier DL-on-the-payroll award.
by Red in Chicago on Jul 28, 2008 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Again.....
What parts? Lohse is really all we have to “sell”.
Of course we’d look to clear up our OF spot, but I’d like to believe we’ve been doing that all year, with no acceptable bites.
Don't forget Ludwick...
He should bring a pretty good harvest of prospects…heck, he’s not even a full time starter here, unless someone else is hurt.
Even Skip might have some value. Not a lot, but it’s never going to be any higher.
Villone could be useful for a team looking for a LOOGY (something he’s been good at this year, unfortunately Tony doesn’t use him as one).
OK
....theres some”reality” above in full stride ! Now Im swooning, whats an “acceptable bite”? Do you have Mos phone tapped?
Are saying that if a trade is discussed and is not made then it had to do only with the players and not the salaries and contracts and a million other clause conditions? Otherwise its not a “bite”?
We should have dealt Lohse during the AS break.
by cardschinmusic on Jul 29, 2008 5:47 AM EDT up reply actions
just a thought;
i admit as much as anybody that perhaps our recent stretch of 6 losses in 7 games is overly influencing my judgment about the cardinals current situation. i also just realized that in that stretch we faced some damn good starting pitchers. in seven games we had to go up against ben sheets, c.c. sabathia, johan santana, and pelfrey, who while not as elite as the other 3, has apparently been very hot lately (anybody care to back that up or refute it with numbers?). obviously a team must be able to compete with good starting pitching to be considered a contender, but it strikes me as odd that this facet has not been discussed much… or maybe it has been and i haven’t noticed?
Stavinoha has been recalled
Boggs is likely to be sent down but nothing official yet. Heck, wouldn’t surprise me if it was Mather that was sent down so we can keep the 13 pitchers for no reason!
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 28, 2008 4:37 PM EDT reply actions
Nevermind
Mather is in the lineup. This Ankiel injury could be a problem for the team. If Ankiel is hurt for an extended period of time and Mozeliak really believes the Cardinals are in it, he might have to get an OF’er, believe it or not.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 28, 2008 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I heard there's one
in Boston. Kind of a funny-looking dude, but he can hit.
by Red in Chicago on Jul 28, 2008 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Or how about the one sitting on his coach?
Seriously if Rasmus wasn’t hurt this wouldn’t be an issue at all, you DL Ankiel and call up Rasmus, but damnit.
Sitting on the coach
does that get you playing time?
Someone ask Aaron.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 28, 2008 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I would think
Boggs down now and then Jimenez down Wednesday leaving you with:
Schumaker CF
Mather LF
Pujols 1B
Ludwick RF
Glaus 3B
Molina C
SS/2B
P
2B/SS
Lohse, Carp, Pineiro, Looper, Wellemeyer
Ankiel, Stav, LaRue, 2MIF
Franklin, Izzy, KMac, Thomspon, Flores, Villone
Please don't list the relief pitchers like that
It causes spontaneous nausea.
by Red in Chicago on Jul 28, 2008 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
would you rather?
Coming back to earth, had a nice career, up and coming star, decent long man, wtf was that over my head again?, RHB hurt me
I read in the P-D
but can’t find the article that Boggs is being kept around today and tomorrow, in case we need a reliever, and then being sent down for Carp to take his spot on Wed.
From Bernie today
http://www.stltoday.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=555233
We assume Boggs is down; Nick S. recalled…
Schumaker
Miles
Pujols
Ludwick
Glaus
Molina
Mather
Looper
Izturis
-B
i know Ankiel is hurt
But I believe he would be better than Mather or Skippy. But being he is hurt. Im just killing time before I get off of work.
Randy Flores...
So I know from watching games that Flores is having a bad year, but I didnt realize how bad till I looked up his splits:
.314/.417/.392 .809 OPS 112 sOPS+ vs RHB
.295/.400/.477 .877 OPS 155 sOPS+ vs LHB
Villone on the other hand
.299/.426/.403 .828 OPS 117 sOPS+
.186/.296/.322 .618 OPS 81 sOPS+
So Villone is slightly worse against righties but he is doing his job pretty well against lefties.
That's all we need him to do. He's our LOOGY
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
Not that I blame you for not noticing, but
I’ve been complaining about this since I got back from St. Louis for the Padres series. Flores is horrifically bad. He brings nothing to the table as a player and is detrimental to the team. Meanwhile, Villone still has value as a LOOGY. His numbers have been distorting because TLR has thrown him to lions in a few tough games (like the massacre at the hands of the Phillies).
wow, that's mind-bending
.877 OPS against left-handers for our top lefty specialist. Those are Estevan Yan, Pedro Borbon Jr.-era numbers
Hudson and Jones placed on DL, McCann will miss at least 3 days...
...but I still say sell Lohse. We need a SS.
by greenwichvillagecard on Jul 28, 2008 6:18 PM EDT reply actions
Atlanta TV feed announcers for the week
Monday: Sportsouth – Jon Sciambi and Joe Simpson (pretty annoying)
Tuesday and Thursday: PeachtreeTV – Chip or Skip Caray and Joe Simpson (a little better)
Wednesday: FSN South – Jon Sciambi and Joe Simpson (see above)
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
This poll is so unreliable
According to reliable sources, Tony LaRussa has voted 357 times for “Buy.”
:)
My first memory of Cardinals baseball is seeing Darrell Porter jump into Bruce Sutter's arms on October 20, 1982!
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