Cards' Solo HR % Update :: 7/26/08

by bgh on Jul 27, 2008 4:22 PM EDT

Since the Redbirds managed a mere one run today versus the great Santana, which, fittingly, came from a solo homer, I thought that it would be a good time to revisit just how many of the Cardinal homers were solo blasts and to see whether or not we had started whacking more mutli-run long balls over the outfield walls of ballparks across this great nation.

You may or may not recall that, back in May, the Cardinals were hitting a disproportionate amount of solo home runs when compared to the league average. Back then, the league average was 57.43% (in '07 it was 56.72%, in '06 the league share was 57.35%, and in '05 it was 56.64%). In May, the Cards had the second-highest Solo HR % in Major League Baseball at 72.09%, which trailed only the Giants.

Here are the numbers through yesterday.

MLB Solo HR %: 56.98% (down 0.45% from May)

St. Louis Solo HR %: 63.39% (Down nearly 8.7% from May)

Since May, the Cards have belted 69 dingers, with 40 of them being of the solo variety, or, 57.97%, which is still higher than the League hit over that same period. Taking all home runs hit in the Majors through yesterday, 56.67% were solo. Because the Cardinals have started hitting home runs more in line with what would expect, they fell from 2nd in this ranking to 4th, behind the Dodgers (67.12%), Orioles (66.35%), and Giants (63.93%). Hopefully, more multi-run homers are on the horizon and we lower our Solo HR % even more as the home stretch heats up.

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Comments

Thanks for the update, bgh.

Let’s hope they continue to move toward the league average. 4 out on July 28 isn’t too bad in light of expectations. The problem is they have to catch two teams. If someone could start collecting saves, they might have a shot.

by vinniefromjersey on Jul 27, 2008 6:01 PM EDT reply actions

Bingo...

I’m not gonna sit here and pretend that solo HR% is the cardinals problem. The bullpen is horrendous outside of Springer and McClellan and thats the real problem. Take away a few blown saves and the cards are on top of 2 very good teams in the Cubs and Brewers.

"Ding-dong the wicked witch is dead!" - Wayne Hagin after the cardinals snapped a losing streak

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jul 27, 2008 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I understand that the bullpen is the problem

But we all remember our dreadful performance with RISP early in the year. As our Solo HR % decreases, it means that our homers are more productive hits than they had been earlier in the year and that is very good news for the offense. I don’t offer this as any sort of remedy; rather, it was an interesting stat that I came across earlier in the year. We all projected the Cards to regress to the MLB mean, so to speak, and they are headed in that direction. I just find it interesting.

by bgh on Jul 27, 2008 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I liked the post earlier in the year

and I like this one too. It is a nice little stat to keep an eye on.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Jul 27, 2008 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions

these are the sort of fanposts that i love best...

... good work bgh.

check up again when the season’s over?

by kindred on Jul 27, 2008 11:55 PM EDT reply actions

that’s great information. one analysis i can see of your data reflects the absence of protection for albert in our lineup. the inflated rate of solo shots indicates that our hitters are hitting mistakes and doing it very well. i think this is the problem that has tony so upset and focused on a bat. the ultimate way to hit dingers is in bunches, thereby putting pitchers on the ropes and hitting “our” pitches rather than “theirs” as we are now doing. by opponents being able, or at least thinking they are able, to pitch around pujols they keep the upper hand. that’s why a “name” bat like manny or barry forces the pitchers hand. big name hitters are still feared even when in a slump because of their track record. even if ludwick is out hitting manny, pitchers don’t see it that way. hence the solo home runs. it would be interesting to see how many multi-run dingers are from the fourth hole with albert on base.

victim of the sixties

by victim of the sixties on Jul 28, 2008 6:19 PM EDT reply actions