Solution to the Bullpen Dillemma...
by Lawless
on Jul 27, 2008 1:07 PM EDT
NEWSFLASH - The Cardinals Bullpen is in dissarray. Guess what, a better answer to the current situation is EASY. I am a qualitative first quantitative second kind of guy, but to make others happy and to drive home the point I'll reverse that trend for this fanpost... Quantitative analysis is as follows:
| MAJORS | ERA | FIP | ERA+ |
| Russ Springer | 1.89 | 3.25 | 225.00 |
| Kyle McClellan | 2.84 | 3.70 | 149.00 |
| Jason Isringhausen | 6.01 | 5.12 | 71.00 |
| Ryan Franklin | 3.96 | 5.02 | 107.00 |
| MINORS | ERA | FIP |
| Jason Motte | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| Mark Worrell | 2.45 | 2.93 |
| Chris Perez | 3.74 | 3.94 |
| Matt Scherer | 3.27 | 3.72 |
| Fernando Salas | 3.49 | 3.82 |
| Luke Gregerson | 4.03 | 3.50 |
Now lets talk roles.....
Closer - If you were beamed in from another planet you would say it's got to be Russ Springer. We know, due to age, he needs to be taken care of in a way that requires he not be the closer. There is no doubt Kyle McClellan is the man here. For reference Wainright's ERA out of the bullpen in '06 was 3.12 and he had a 3.31 FIP. Yes, wainright was a marginally better option out of the pen in '06 but the difference is not as great as the brain trust in STL believes when they start talking about moving Mr. Wainright to the pen now (e.g. the difference between Wainright and McClellan is a hell of alot smaller than the difference between Wainright and Boggs/Looper/Piniero). SAVE US TIME MAKE MCCLELLAN THE CLOSER. He is not only our best option at closer this year he will likely be our best option as closer for the next several years. Lets see if we need to go out on the FA market now....
7th/8th Setup - Option 1 is Springer, Option 2 is Franklin, Option 3 is Izzy.
Wild Card - Motte should be in the bigs. Look at his FIP. He is mowing hitters down in the minors. It is unbelievable that Flores is back up with what Motte and Worrell are doing in AAA. We need to give these two a shot and we need to give them a shot now....
LOOGY - Despite what happened with Delgado last night I am still of the belief that Villone is an effective loogy. I DO NOT want to overpay for the likes of Fuentes and Mahay. Lets get the other Burnett (Sean). He could be had on the cheap, is under team control for four more years and could develop into more than a LOOGY. Any second tier prospect would do......
So in summary our bullpen would be:
Closer - McClellan
8th Inning - Option 1 Springer, Option 2 Franklin
7th Inning/ROOGY - Option 1 Izzy, Option 2 Motte
LOOGYS - Option 1 Burnett, Option 2 Villone
Long dude - Doesn't matter, Thompson, Jimenez, Parisi are all decent options
The answer is easy isn't it? I know LaRussa might fuss but this needs to be settled.....
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Motte is not ready.....
He’d get smashed in the bigs. Doesn’t matter if you throw 97, if a big league hitter knows that is the only pitch you throw, they’ll hit it hard.
As for moving Izzy and Franklin out of the 8th/9th…..fine, but that doesn’t solve the problem, it only moves it a few innings earlier.
The bullpen will get better when Carpenter returns to the rotation, and when Waino returns to the rotation or pen. If we could just go get one stud…..or very good reliever…..a Fuentes, a Sherrill, etc, we’ll be fine.
I think a more pressing need is a shakeup of the lineup. Too many all or not, hot/cold bats.
by SoonerfanTU on Jul 27, 2008 3:14 PM EDT 0 recs
Don't buy it...
The question isn’t whether Motte’s got more than a fastball its whether Motte’s got more than Franklin/Izzy/FLORES!!!/ et all. He isn’t a perfect option granted BUT a 2.32 FIP in AAA is pretty freakin good. I know he only has gas but Perez seemed to do aright in the bigs with not much else AND not the command of the fastball that Motte has. Again, do I think he is a world beater – NO – do I think he would be an improvement over Flores in the 7th emphatically yes.
I am wholly against going out and getting Fuentes/Sherrill if it costs anywhere near what they are supposed to cost. McClellan is a better reliever than Fuentes, so you are trading for Fuentes for the marginal gain of his next 30 innings compared to Izzy, Franklin, et all. I just don’t think they will be much better. As for a LOOGY I think if you are getting Fuentes for that you are overpaying out the wazooo. Sean Burnett everyone. He could be had cheap cheap cheap!
As for a hitter, maybe Ramirez or Bonds, there don’t seem to be any other good cheap options out there….
by Lawless on
Jul 27, 2008 4:18 PM EDT
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Fuentes as "marginal gain" compared to Izzy and Franklin?
Fuentes has a FIP of 2.04 this year, and 3.69 for his career. His ERA is 3.15 and ERA+ is 147, which is a marginal gain over McClellan but a significant gain over either Izzy or Franklin. Fuentes is a significant improvement over both Izzy and Franklin. He steps in as closer on Day 1 and allows for Spring/Villone as LOOGY/McClellan as the set-up guys.
As for Sherrill, I hope he doesn’t come to St. Louis. His FIP is 4.16 this year and his ERA+ is 112. I think this is too marginal an upgrade for the likely cost.
As for Motte, I’ve seen him play seven time this year. He throws a four-seam, flat fastball and not much else. He would be torched in the bigs as he is currently developed. With work on his breaking pitch, he might be ready by 2010. Keep in mind that he’s a 26-year-old converted catcher. I’m not saying that he wouldn’t be better than Franklin/Izzy/Flores, because I don’t know that he wouldn’t. What I am saying is that the organization would be best-served by letting him work on his second and third pitches in AAA.
I’ve also seen Perez a handful of times (both for Memphis and St. Louis). He has a far better breaking ball than Motte. How he is not in the ‘pen and the likes of a Flores and Izzy are is simply beyond me.
by bgh on
Jul 27, 2008 4:50 PM EDT
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Fuentes as marginal gain....
My thinking is not about what has been done this year but what could be reasonably expected to be done over the next 3 months. I should say marginal gain over our 8th inning options which I said were #1 Spinger and #2/#3 Izzy, Franklin. Using an imperfect metric average 3 year ERA+ it doesn’t seem like alot to lose to me.
Using an average of the last two years ERA+ here are the numbers
MAJORS 2006 ERA+ 2007 ERA+ 2008 ERA+ Average
Brian Fuentes 142.00 155.00 147.00 148.00
Jason Isringhausen 125.00 177.00 71.00 124.33
Ryan Franklin 105.00 145.00 107.00 119.00
Russ Springer 128.00 201.00 225.00 184.67
By the way, while Ryan Franklin looks especially bad in this metric he does pitch 25% more innings than anyone else on this list. If his usage was monitored a bit better I would have to guess he would do a bit better.
As for your words on Motte. He will get 10 more innings in AAA this year (probably). Do you really think spending those innings in AAA are going to significantly effect his long term growth?
Again, good points and I tend to agree with you in many respects. But I stand by my premise that we don’t need to mortgage the farm for Fuentes or his ilk.
by Lawless on
Jul 27, 2008 5:15 PM EDT
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Agree on not mortgaging
The Redbirds have 32 team games (plus concluding a rainout) left, which is about 250 innings to pitch. He’s appeared in 45 of the club’s 107 games so far, pitching 48.1 innings. So, maybe 10 innings in the final 32 games (although Mo could instruct the staff to make it more like 20 innings, if he pleases). 10 innings of fiddling with a breaking ball in games that don’t count is better for the organization than 10 innings of fiddling against big leaguers. Motte can just as easily come up in September and be used carefully (bottom of orders, blowouts, etc.) and from there the organization can evaluate his potential for next season.
I understand where you are coming from, but the organization does not seem to be recognizing much in the way of sunk cost—AK, Izzy, Izturis. They should DFA Flores and bring up a reliever. However, IMO, Perez should be that reliever, not Motte. Perez should be on the next flight to ATL.
The problem with three-year averages in this instance, even though I prefer them, is that Izzy’s implosion is not reflected in last year’s statistics in any way, shape or form. Nor is his bum knee. Also, he’s 35, soon-to-be 36, and significant downturns in performance at this age level are not uncommon. Also, Franklin’s peripherals were outlier low last year, which made his regression this year imminently foreseeable. Plus, he’s 35 and was put through the grinder last season by TLR, as you astutely point out. The question is whether or not you truly believe that Izzy and Frankline’s three-year averages are the best predictor of their home stretch performances. I don’t. I think that this season’s numbers are their best indicators (with Franklin performing worse and worse as the season progresses).
Fuentes is 32, going on 33, and could be decent for a few more seasons, even if transitioning into a more LOOGY type of role toward the end of his Cardinals career, when Perez or Motte or whomever can step into the 9th inning role.
I’ve posted before that TLR should implement a bullpen re-alignment with McClellan and Springer in the 9th/8th and Perez/Villone vs. LHB/possibly Franklin in the 8th/7th and Izzy in the 7th/6th. At least until the cavalry is traded for, if it is to be had a reasonable price in prospects.
by bgh on
Jul 27, 2008 6:19 PM EDT
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Agree
My overall premise with Izzy is that I don’t think he is as bad as he seems today. I think he could pitch in the ballpark with his three year averages (e.g. 120 ERA+). Fuentes would be better. I think it is just a matter of what we would have to give up and recognizing that he likely leaves after the season as a free agent (granted one maybe two draft picks coming back out way)...
It certainly wouldn’t hurt to have Fuentes, but would he be the difference in the Cards making the postseason or not? My uninformed speculation is no, but yaneverknow!
by Lawless on
Jul 27, 2008 7:27 PM EDT
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The Colonel
Wasn’t on the list but my vote goes to Colonel Wellmeyer in the pantry with the candle stick for closer.
by jjray on Jul 27, 2008 6:29 PM EDT 0 recs
Future Redbirds Scouting Report on Motte
I wanted to make sure that my personal observations weren’t way off base so I went over to Future Redbirds (a must-read for folks wanting to familiarize themselves with the Cardinals’ farm system) and they had this on Motte:
The slider isn’t a myth but it is very much a work in progress. My biggest complaint is that it doesn’t break away from right-handers enough. It’s got some decent vertical movement (which almost made me think it was a curve the first time I saw it) but the lateral break leaves a lot to be desired. I’d almost question if he’s even putting the right/enough torque on the ball when it leaves his hand. The other problem is that it’s pretty easy to recognize when he’s throwing the slider. The arm action slows a little and the arm slot just isn’t quite the same.
by bgh on Jul 27, 2008 6:33 PM EDT 0 recs
you didn't put wellemeyer on that list
He’s my first vote, then McClellan
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 28, 2008 1:56 AM EDT 0 recs
The pen will be helped by Carp and Waino
They will eat more innings by mid-August and will allow for someone in the current rotation to go to the pen. Wellemeyer might be a great option. We don;t have anyone pitching right now that we can consistently count on giving us 7 innings, let alone 8 or 9. And only Lohse is a guy you count on for 6 every night. Looper has been solid as far as innings are concerned and Wellemeyer was for a while, but he has struggled lately.
We shouldn’t mortgage the future, but we should also be willing to add from the outside. I would prefer not to get Sherrill or Fuentes. I think Sherill is ready to implode. He is 3 innings from his all-time high. I would prefer we get a LOOGY or even another RH arm for middle relief which will be significantly cheaper than the other two options.
by CardFaninTTown on Jul 28, 2008 1:49 PM EDT 0 recs
UPDATE--stlcardinals.com says IZZY is BACK
Well, I will be brutally honest, I was the 89th vote and the poll and the third person to say Izzy should get the role back. I agree with Duncan here on two things:
1) the last two/three months aside, this guy has shown us this year and last, that he’s our best closer. NOT our closer of the FUTURE, NOT our most effective bullpen pitcher this season, BUT CLOSER for NOW. He’s got the most experience, the mental make-up is there, even if it’s pretty friggin foggy right now, and he’s got a real desire to do this right.
2) Him in that role, makes everyone else better as it lines people up in the roles they’re accustomed too. Baseball is all about repitition, superstition, and ego—all are gained and maximized with this setup.
I don’t have the statistics, and I know Izzy’s numbers are bad, but I’m focusing on one number—292. He’s been here before, he’ll get us back there again. Faith in Redbird Nation and the Dave Duncan way.
DAVE DUNCAN/MARTY MASON IN 2008—GETTING THE BEST OUT OF A WORN-OUT STAFF GOES BEYOND THE PITCHERS MOUND
by timmycardinals on Jul 28, 2008 6:22 PM EDT 0 recs
Here's Hoping....
You are right. I think LaRussa has to be careful with the usage patterns in Izzy’s old age. He needs to avoid at all costs using him two days in a row or more. He’s got a shot….. Hopefully he can get er’ done.
On the other hand if we slip further out and Izzy gets save no. 300 we will need to pass the torch to see what we have…
by Lawless on
Jul 28, 2008 10:25 PM EDT
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