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It's FAN-tastic!!!

Whew! What a day to be a Cardinal fan! I have to say, first of all, how exciting it is to be filling in for LB after such a tremendous day. He’s gone for a few days so I’ll be here today and tomorrow and then, Valatan’s going to fill in Thursday. Unfortunately for him, LB’s getting the short end of the stick. When I was gone he switched w/ me after the Cards lost a game similar to yesterday’s against the Pirates. Anyway, yesterday’s game was a hum-dinger in more ways than one. I wasn’t even able to watch it and I found the boxscore exciting. It must’ve like being at an amusement park to watch!

After 7 ½ innings yesterday, the Cards were down 3-2 and had a 31.4 % chance of winning. Did I mention that Kelvin Jimenez actually threw 2 scoreless innings and Randy Flores got 2 batters out? Be still my heart! When Troy Glaus came to the plate, w/ 2 out and 2 on in the bottom of the 8th, the Cards’ likelihood of winning the game had fallen to 29.2%. Then, w/ one swing of the bat, Glaus hits a blast – a rocket, no-doubter into the left-center field seats that should have won the game. The Cards’ win expectancy went from 29.2% to 92.6%. By win expectancy, it was the single biggest play of the day. It’s tough to believe the Cards would have an even greater moment.

The 8th ends and the Cards have a 5-3 lead entering the 9th. Franklin was spent, having gone 2 innings Saturday and so the 9th was turned over to Izzy. I haven’t read yesterday’s game threads (and won’t) but there must’ve been some high anxiety here even as people were still celebrating Glaus’ tremendous shot. Izzy manages to get exactly 1 man out and then the Padres go single, double, single, to get within one. Thankfully, Tony was ready w/ Brad Thompson. Under normal circumstances (w/ Izzy performing at top level), it would’ve been Izzy’s game to lose. So Tony calls on Thompson who, suddenly, has become the bullpen savior. Or is he? He is quickly greeted by a Kevin Kouzmanoff double to center. Fortunately, Brian Giles runs the bases rather cautiously and is forced to stop at 3rd, keeping the score at 5-5. In watching the play on video replay, it looked like a double all the way and I can’t imagine why Giles didn’t see that from the moment it left Kouzmanoff’s bat. Perhaps Ankiel’s defensive reputation is just that good or maybe Giles was just that concerned about getting doubled off, but it appears to me as though he should’ve scored on that play. Regardless, the score was 5-5 w/ runners on 2nd and 3rd and 1 out.

At this point, the Cards’ win expectancy had fallen from 92.6% to 28.4%. Chase Headley was intentionally walked and Thompson got some guy I’ve never heard of to bounce into a 3-2 fielder’s choice. (The Padres have a lot of guys nobody’s ever heard of.) Then Adrian Gonzalez (a guy I, most certainly, have heard of) batted w/ the bases loaded and 2 outs and our best defensive player snared his line drive and saved 2 runs, thus bringing the game to the bottom of the 9th, tied at 5. The Cards’ win expectancy was now 64.3%. With one out, Cards’ fans were waiting for some Pujols heroics and they would not be disappointed! With a 3-0 count, in a tie game, bottom of the ninth, Albert Pujols…DREW A WALK!!!!!!! Some have lamented the fact that Albert has fewer RBI than usual and others, such as myself, have defended him saying "teams aren’t pitching to him w/ games on the line."

How big was Albert’s walk yesterday? Fangraphs says it increased the Cards’ win expectancy by about 5.5%. I don’t know where the pitches were but Albert didn’t expand his zone. Bryan Corey didn’t want to pitch to Albert in that situation – he wasn’t going to let Pujols beat him but, you know what, Albert DID beat him by accepting the walk. It’s important to remember just how valuable getting on base is and that Albert is helping the team score runs every time he walks. BTW, Albert is now up to 63 walks against 30 K’s on the season. Not too shabby! After a throwing error in which someone else I’ve never heard of (I think it was actually the first guy I’d never heard of) threw the ball in the right-field corner while trying to do his best Yadi impression, Albert stood at 3B w/ 1 out and the aforementioned Yadi Molina at the plate. The Cards’ win expectancy was now at 83%. Two intentional walks later and, well, you know the rest!

Aaron Freaking Miles. Aaron Freaking Miles. A fly ball to right wouldn’t have been that surprising. Base hit to right – not at all surprising. He’s actually been quite good in "clutch" situations this year -- .937 OPS (before yesterday) in close and late situations and a Pujolsian 1.029 in tie games. For his career he’s been pretty average in these situations but, all in all, not a bad player to have at the plate. Still, did anyone anticipate a bomb into the right-center field bullpen? Whooda thunkit? Strangely, it wasn’t all that long ago when a similar, yet even more clutch walk-off grand slam occurred. In 2005, the Cards were trying to follow up their 105 win season and were on their way to another 100 win season when this guy -- all 5’6" and 170 lbs. of him muscled up and turned a 2 run deficit into a 2 run walkoff win w/ one swing of the bat. Maybe what we really need w/ the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th is the smallest guy on the team at the plate! In any case, while it wasn’t quite as dramatic as Eckstein’s shot (tie game vs. 2 runs down), the grand slam helped the Cards sail to a 4 game sweep of the Padres to begin the season’s second half.

A few things are notable about the comeback. First, the Cards, despite having a very good season so far, haven’t been great in the late innings. Prior to yesterday, the Cards were just 3-27 when behind after 7 innings. Maybe another great comeback victory like yesterday’s will turn that trend around. It was the 2004, 105-win team, that was so good in the late innings – winning more than 15% of the games in which they were behind after 7 innings. It’s not the offense, however, that has generally been the problem late in games as the Cards’ main problem manifested itself once again yesterday. The pitching, in "late and close" situations hasn’t been at all good this year, as opponents have an .895 OPS against our pitchers in those situations. In innings 7-9, Cards’ opponents’ OPS is .779, good for an OPS+ of 118 when compared to other teams in these innings.

The closing situation still appears to be a problem. I have to say that I’m pulling like hell for Izzy. There aren’t many who are bigger Izzy fans than I am but, at some point, he’s either going to have to get it together or become a mop-up guy. Since being activated from the DL on June 14, he’s walked 7 and given up 7 ER in 15 IP. He has struck out 13 and only given up 1 homer but it’s clear from yesterday’s game that Tony doesn’t feel completely comfortable w/ him out there. An article in yesterday’s p-d, printed prior to yesterday’s game, called Izzy "a wild-card" and implied that he’s going to have to prove himself before consistently being called upon in the 9th.

As for Franklin, he’s pretty scary also. He’s already walked 19 batters – 11 more than the entire season last year in 35 fewer innings. He is striking out about 6 runners per 9 IP but his walk rate is way up and his ground ball rate is way down. His FIP right now is 4.57 – not good. In 2006 we had closer problems but Adam Wainwright emerged as a superb stopper. Who’s going to do it this year? As the club becomes more and more concerned about Izzy and Franklin, the price tag for Brian Fuentes climbs. He’s already coveted by several teams as it is.

Still, the Cards are now 14 games over .500 for the first time this season and, in fact, for the first time since June 21, 2006. This was actually the day before Anthony Reyes (remember him?) threw that sensational game against the White Sox where he was beaten 1-0 on a Jim Thome homer. The Cards were pounded in that series and, from that point through the end of last season, the Cards were 119-134 in regular season games. Now the Cards have played exactly 100 games this season and are 57-43. I have to say that I’m surprised at how well they’re playing.

As for Jaime Garcia’s first start – all in all, not too bad. 5 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K – the 2 HRs aren’t good but he hasn’t shown a proclivity toward giving up homers. He had only given up 6 all season in more than 103 IP and 24 in 362 minor league innings. Still, you’ve gotta be able to keep the pitcher in the ballpark. He did get 8 ground outs vs. 4 air outs. Add that to 4 K’s and he’s got something to build on. He’s probably not the solution but he may be able to hold down the fort until either Carp or Wainwright are ready.

And on that note, yesterday was, of course, Carp’s first rehab assignment at Springfield. From looking at the numbers, it seemed to go quite well -- 4 IP, 1 H, 4 BB and 4 K’s. I’m not that worried about the walks – it’s not like they could hit him. He hadn’t pitched in more than a year and a half. He’s going to struggle w/ his control some. It’s to be expected. What’s really important is that the velocity’s there and that his arm feels good and, apparently, he was hitting 92 and his curveball had "wicked movement" and his arm felt good afterward. That’s absolutely great news. The real test of arm soreness may come today or tomorrow but it’s still good to hear that there was no pain during or after the outing.

So, the Cards are still 2 back of the Cubbies. Expecting the Astros to sweep them was too much to hope for anyway and we’ll begin a big 4 game series w/ the Brewers later this evening. It’s a 6:05 game (ESPN?) so I’ll be up w/ a game thread as 6:00 approaches. They’re hot on our heels after winning their series against the Giants so this becomes a big one. It looks like it’s going to be a tough, 3-team race from here on out. Hopefully, yesterday’s game becomes a metaphor for the way the season plays out.

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Thompson

Great post all the way around, HC. Is it possible that Albert is still underrated? Really? I honestly think he might be. On a less than positive note, the problems with the bullpen (Flores, et al) have been pored over like a school nurse checking for lice. I guess my question is this: When, oh when, is LaRussa stop thrusting Thompson into critical game situations? If you look up “mop-up pitcher” in the baseball dictionary, there’s a picture of Thompson’s face. Drives me insane. Honestly, if that’s all we have to complain about at this point, it’s been a pretty good ride.

I bought the t-shirt.

by thejackclarkfive on Jul 21, 2008 3:13 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

with men at first and third and one out

run expectancy is 1.243. IE MLB pitchers historically give up slightly more than 1 and a 1/4 runs. Thompson gave up one. He did fine. Yeah, some guys get out of that jam without giving up a run, and others give up 2 or 3 or 8, (and given his GB% (50.5%!), thompson probably gets out of that jam more often than any other pitcher in our bullpen; he just didn’t last night). The only guy with a GB rate as high as Thompson was (gasp) izzy, though KMac has a 47%. Regardless, giving up one when you are called into that situation is nothing to be ashamed of.

I also think Ankiel should have caught that fly ball- he seemed to be playing very, very, VERY shallow and the ball was in the air for what seemed like forever. He just didn’t get back on it in time. Though even if he had caught it, a run would have scored, a (what’s the “blown save” analogue for “cheap save”?) on a “sacrifice fly” sounds much better than an “rbi double”.

"..and that, my liege, is how we know the Earth to be banana shaped." -Sir Belvedere

by SleepyCA on Jul 21, 2008 3:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was listening to the radio

but it sure sounded like out 3 would have been a single 95% of the time. Perhaps people who were watching can disabuse me of that notion, but I’m glad that WonderBrad got the job done, and I still don’t really trust him.

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Jul 21, 2008 3:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

BT...

was hit hard by all three batters he faced…especially KK and Adrian who smoked one right at Pujols.

by cardzfanbub on Jul 21, 2008 8:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Considering it was Kouzminoff and Gonzalez

I don’t think anyone should be worried either of them hit him hard. Those two guys are beasts. Gonzalez is a great hitter who mashes the ball and KK hits everything hard he gets a bat on.

by Tackle Box on Jul 21, 2008 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No arguement from me...

I was just affirming what Valatan said about Gonzalez’s lineout…that inning could have looked a lot different if that balls hit a few feet any direction.

by cardzfanbub on Jul 21, 2008 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the double given up by Thompson

Agree with Sleepy. Hobbs was playing extremely shallow as I am sure he wanted to put himself in position to throw out the runner at the plate on a short sac fly. Giles held up because, given the depth of the shot, he realistically expected the CF to catch it. I don’t think Giles recognized how shallow Ank was playing and luckily so for the Cards. Ank needs to realize that the runner on third was the tying run, not the winning run. He should have been playing at standard depth knowing that giving up a double over his head could have cost the Cards the game.

by jjray on Jul 21, 2008 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thompson has been pitching VERY well.....

I was perfectly comfortable with him out there. I’d say behind Kmac, right now, I probably trust him as much as any of our bullpen arms.

by SoonerfanTU on Jul 21, 2008 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Springer...

really doesn’t get enough credit!!!

by cardzfanbub on Jul 21, 2008 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Forgot about him.....

Springer belongs up there too, probably ahead of Thompson.

by SoonerfanTU on Jul 21, 2008 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's not just you Sooner...

seems to me that Springer should be our closer right now…at least anytime he’s available. He’s been consistently good for his tenure here.

by cardzfanbub on Jul 21, 2008 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2008 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Really?

We’re ragging on Thomspon? Snice his last call up he has bailed us out twice. Last night and Mulders start. I realize that the runner on third scored. But when the runner is on third with 1 out he should score.

Also. He was the only one able to pitch last night.

by Evilfrog on Jul 21, 2008 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don't Forget

Friday Night, In what could of been a blow out, after looper was gone after 3 innings Brad came in a pitched a couple of effective innings to keep it close until we could get it to the rest of our bullpen, and pound Maddux

New Member of the Skip Schumaker Fan Club

by cyko42 on Jul 21, 2008 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can't even begin to address the Thompson comment

What else were they to do?

Anyway, about Pujols being underrated. He might be “underrated” by the national media, but I don’t think he’s underrated by opposing pitchers. And it shows in the way they have been pitching him.

by Tackle Box on Jul 21, 2008 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

it was just one home run

and one loud out slapped into the stands by a second baseman playing LF ;)

For closer, I have to wonder about putting Jess Todd into the Kmac slot and “promoting” Kmac, a la AW. I know, Todd is probably a year away, but he is putting up some good numbers at AA. It’s a real shame Perez didn’t get it all together when he had his shot (although he wasn’t THAT bad) since he’s the obvious “answer”. Even now, it wouldn’t be the worst thing to promote Perez to “7th inning guy”, Kmac to “closer”, and DL izzy.

FWIW it’s also a real shame that Springer is getting old. I love that guy. He’s basically filled the role of “bullpen ace” the last 2 years without anyone calling him that. And he’ll be gone next year, most likely, a glaring and (currently) cheap hole we’ll have to fill with someone either home-grown or expensively purchased.

"..and that, my liege, is how we know the Earth to be banana shaped." -Sir Belvedere

by SleepyCA on Jul 21, 2008 3:17 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Beat me to it on the Skippy 2 base error in LF

As far as bring up Todd, why not Salas? Watched him in the Futures game and he appears to already have big league stuff. He can’t be worse then Kelvin Jiminez generally is.

Also, along the lines of stuff you couldn’t see in the boxscore: Corey’s pitches to Albert weren’t even close. The Catcher was literally set up in the LH batter’s box. Even if it had ended up down the middle, no umpire is going to call a strike when the catcher is almost in the home team dugout.

You also missed Matty V on the Padres broadcast saying they WOULDN’T load the bases in this situation after THEY JUST ARGUED TO LOAD THE BASES earlier when TLR did it. I couldn’t believe my ears.

About Carp, it’s insane to think that the guy has been an afterthought. I was listening to the game last night and it dawned on me, he is literally at the point that if he had pitched 5 innings of 1 hit, 7 K shutout baseball…he’d probably be in the rotation next week. THAT’S how close we are to getting Carp back.

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 21, 2008 3:24 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

good point on salas

I keep forgetting about him, but he could be the guy that takes over for springer. of course, he could be the next Jimenez, as well ;)

"..and that, my liege, is how we know the Earth to be banana shaped." -Sir Belvedere

by SleepyCA on Jul 21, 2008 3:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i really have a had time seeing carp in the rotation

its just been so long, god i hope it happens soon

i take your signatures and use them as away messages

by ihavebadknees on Jul 21, 2008 6:05 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

People talked about Mulder's return

Im okay with Carp doing it quitely.

by Evilfrog on Jul 21, 2008 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Couple notes

1) The other guy on the Pads broadcast said they were loading the bases when Pujols as soon as Yadi came running in from the bullpen to pinch hit for Brad Thompson.

2) On the intentional walks, I was hoping that the umpire would do what happened last year (2 years ago?) to Yadi and call a catcher’s balk to end the game. Their catcher was ridiculously early getting over there on either 2 or 3 of the 8 intentional balls.

by stlfan on Jul 21, 2008 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Garcia down

Boggs up. Hmmm, wonder who starts the next time around.

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 21, 2008 3:32 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Well

Garcia has to stay down for 10 days unless we DL someone.

by mikedallas45 on Jul 21, 2008 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Where did you see this?

I’ve been looking, and haven’t found it anywhere yet

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on Jul 21, 2008 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

STL today cardinal notes

says it’s likely. I haven’t seen anything official. Apparently TLR wants more arms available for the Brewers series.

by azruavatar on Jul 21, 2008 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So is he going to a 14-man pitching staff?

Unless they’re using him for long relief, I don’t see how swapping Garcia for Boggs helps that problem.

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on Jul 21, 2008 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Only TLR would go with a 14 man staff...

though I think the Brewers actually had 14 pitchers at one point this season

by tbell61 on Jul 21, 2008 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

you can do that when you have Aaron Miles.

Im surprise we just don’t put Miles into centerfield and let him play the whole outfield. Then we could add three more pitchers.

by Evilfrog on Jul 21, 2008 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But Miles...

eliminates the need for the 14th pitcher…cause he IS the 14th pitcher.

by cardzfanbub on Jul 21, 2008 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

use boggs in the pen for now

and send him down for a starter later

by StLHugo on Jul 21, 2008 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Which starter?

Garcia can’t come back up for ten days. Unless it’s Reyes, the only other thing I can think of is maybe fast-tracking Carp back to St. Louis, which I would totally be against.

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on Jul 21, 2008 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that would be only 1 rehab

so I doubt it is Carp, Reyes, Walters, Mort, Todd, Piarsi, Clement, there are some options, none that i really like, i would have prefered they call up Worrell and then use boggs as the starter

by StLHugo on Jul 21, 2008 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

?

I am saying instead of calling up boggs you call up worrell now, then send down worrell for boggs

by StLHugo on Jul 21, 2008 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gotcha

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on Jul 21, 2008 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

it definitely should not be Carp

but I bet that is what TLR is thinking. After all, it shouldn’t have been Mulder either. I am having a little trouble understanding how having eight guys in the ‘pen, who all just had three days off, is not enough.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Jul 21, 2008 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thompson

the swing starter? If not he is a canidate for being sent down.

by Evilfrog on Jul 21, 2008 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

True

Forgot about him

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on Jul 21, 2008 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yup

it will probably come down to who is fresher to start the game between Boggs and Thompson. If the bullpen gets blown up again and either Boggs or Thompson have to eat a bunch of innings, it would probably be the other one. Now, if they’re both spent, then you got yourself a little problem, but that’s a bridge you cross 5 days from now. Right now, you have to be prepared for a 4 game set with the Brewers.

by Tackle Box on Jul 21, 2008 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Certainly would not hurt to push Salas and Todd to Memphis for an audition. Garcia to the pen and Flores to the Muckdogs when/if Carp comes back.

An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.

HL Mencken

by akaitori on Jul 21, 2008 3:45 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Grand slam walk off!

Youre right HCL, what a day to be a Cards fan. Hammonds was electric last night and Carpenter was pumped, maybe too much adrenalin, but his breaking stuff was spot on.

Between Carps tune-up, Miles grand slam and Glaus’ hot streak its hard to whine about the BP, but I will say Salas got hammered on 7/10 and it was ugly. No less painful for Spfld fans. Almost the same on 6/30, but he got the last out after giving up a huge shot that cut the lead to one, he has a ways to go to be a major leaguer. On the other hand, a healthy Carpenter and Wainwright will put a lot less pressure on the pen, hopefully.

Being Aaron Miles has to be so much more fun than being you...

by cardschinmusic on Jul 21, 2008 5:36 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

not to be a jerk but as an FYI

it’s Hammons Field no “d”

"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum

by nomar34 on Jul 21, 2008 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Stand corrected....

must have been a Hammond B-3 flashback kinda thing “nooo-mah”. We need correctors!

Being Aaron Miles has to be so much more fun than being you...

by cardschinmusic on Jul 22, 2008 5:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is it a mirage?

Like many others I beat the drums for the exit of Miles. Now on July 21 he has a higher slugging percentage than Duncan, is hitting .323, and has become Mr. Clutch. On the Padres broadcast (given free by MLB extra innings) they said as he stepped into the batter’s box that he has the highest batting average in THE MAJOR LEAGUES in day games. And, am I crazy, or has he looked much improved defensively? Let’s hope it lasts. Pass the crow, please.

by vinniefromjersey on Jul 21, 2008 7:50 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

But unlike many others

you admit fault in that assertion. I have a feeling 90% of Miles bashers will still hold tight to the assertion that the guy can’t contribute to a competitive squad. He’s already produced more so far this season than I was expecting from him for the entire year… and I’m a kool-aid drinking “Miles apologist”.

All sycophancy aside, the guy is a valuable utility guy who probably doesn’t need to be starting at shortstop as much as he has. But still a good band-aid as a starting 2B.

"Well, folks, this game began as a tiny worm and is blossoming into a large cobra." - Mike "The Moon Man" Shannon

by Tudor's Electric Fan on Jul 21, 2008 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

sycophancy +1

Etymology = Greek: lover of figs – Go “FIG”ure, and a good post

An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.

HL Mencken

by akaitori on Jul 21, 2008 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've already been on record

as apologizing to Miles; I never thought he’d be an above average baseball player and he has been for 60% of a season now. God bless him for proving me wrong and I hope it continues.

However, it’d be more than silly for us to consider him the second baseman of the future. But for the time being, I’ma just gonna enjoy what he has done and is doing in ‘08.

My fellow Americans. As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball, but tonight I say, we must move forward, not backward, upward not forward, and always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom.

by Alxfritz on Jul 21, 2008 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Always a Miles backer...

if he is a back up player on the roster. Well, he’s already got 235 plate appearances and has shown up in over 3/4 of the team’s games. I don’t know if that qualifies for eating crow or not, but I already have on Duncan in the last month…so pass it this way next?

by stlfan on Jul 21, 2008 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

He has earned his spot at 2B. He is definetly worth his paycheck and then some…

Sorry Little Guy.

"Why does he keep saying that?"

by Red Blazer on Jul 21, 2008 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

strangely enough

he looks like he has better defense at SS!

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2008 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Miles

I think the problem most people have had is that he either gets used too much in a role he can’t perform in, or that he’s blocking somebody younger (I’d say cheaper too, but what’s 500k to a major league team). I’m all for the guy as a utility infielder, i’m completely against him seeing him start on the regular except in some kind of emergency. Given that our infield currently qualifies as an emergency as long as kennedy is on the roster….i suppose i should reserve judgement.

by spencegrif on Jul 21, 2008 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

it's hard for him not to be a starter

when he keeps batting the way he has

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2008 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's funny

But I think a lot of the frustration with Miles et al slapping singles around the park earlier in the season has gone away since Mr. Glaus found his power stroke. It’s amazing how much more valuable OBP is for the Birds’ offense now that he’s tearing the cover off the ball.

"Well, folks, this game began as a tiny worm and is blossoming into a large cobra." - Mike "The Moon Man" Shannon

by Tudor's Electric Fan on Jul 21, 2008 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was happy yesterday...

... but to risk so much playing with the Padres to me is an indication that the Cards will risk a lot Vs a better competition.
I appreciated a lot the “never give up” approach, I appreciated the will to take advantage of every opportunity the other team would give you, but to get something out of Milwaukee and Chicago, they’ll need to get some scoring improvement in the early innings and a better perfomance from pitching, expecially bullpen pitching.

But, despite this, it’s really fun to watch this team.

GO CARDS!!!

by SuperSeve on Jul 21, 2008 8:38 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Filling in some blanks

Saw the game from the good seats yesterday. A few thoughts to add to HC’s post:
- Izzy looked good on the first batter (seemed like he threw the cutter well there), but then seemed to go heavily with curveballs after that and couldn’t get an out. Was he hurting? Or was it in his head?
- Thompson got lucky. He wasn’t fooling anyone, and he looked frustrated already. Albert caught a missile.
- Albert’s trip to 3rd in the 9th was notable: he got very aggressive, going more than half way to 2nd as the 1B came in with Thompson showing bunt. That aggressiveness led to the catcher’s mistake. He tried to lead the 2B who was streaking back to first just ahead of Albert. Unfortunately he’s no Joe Montana and he threw behind the man and into RF. Credit Albert for drawing that throw. Credit a bad catcher decision even more (low percentage play in a key situation = bad decision)
- LaRussa then electrified the place: with a 1-0 count on Thompson, he called him back to the dugout . . . and called Yadi in from the bullpen to pinch hit! (Keep in mind, Yadi’s been in the BP all day, and I don’t think there’s a batting cage out there!) Thompson looked completely surprised, and frankly I can’t remember watching a pinch hit in the middle of an at bat (without an injury). The 30K left in the stadium erupted. It seemed a letdown when Black ordered him (and the next guy) walked, but it was really like a chess player playing the end game down a rook, looking for a miracle. Black decided he preferred Miles batting with a force out at home to Yadi batting with no force. Can’t blame him for that. Miles came through.

Great game. Great effort. All I kept saying to my friends afterward is: Mo needs to do something to match the effort these guys are putting out. He can’t let them down.

by Secret Weapon on Jul 21, 2008 8:45 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes, Great Effort

And since I was at the game yesterday, too, I’ll mention something you didn’t SW. It was freaking hot, brutal hot, people passing out in the stands hot, and there were plenty of times when it would have been awfully easy to just say, Okay, we took 3 of 4, and pack it in on a Sunday and get ready for the Brewers. This team does not quit.

by Dr Tom More on Jul 21, 2008 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

"He can’t let them down."

I keep hearing this, and I can’t help feeling like it’s totally unfair to Mozeliak to judge his commitment to/effort for the team based on whether he acquires someone at the deadline.

It’s really easy to get someone if you’re willing to dump your entire farm system on someone (see: Joe Blanton to Phillies), but Mozeliak doesn’t want to do that, as he shouldn’t. If he doesn’t acquire someone, it’s likely not due to a lack of effort, it’s due to his considering the price too expensive in regards to the future of the organization.

Quite frankly, unless Mo gets someone that’s more than a rental, I’ll be pretty unhappy if he trades Rasmus, Anderson, Todd, Garcia or Perez. The Jocketty model of team construction doesn’t work anymore—you need to have young, cost-controlled players on your roster to be able to afford the price of impact free agents. Trading them away before they crack the majors makes that a wee bit difficult.

That said, I have to think we could have matched up with the Cubs on an offer for Harden…they gave a pretty weak package for someone with his stuff. Oh well.

by mojowo11 on Jul 21, 2008 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agree completely

“Do something” does not equal “Do something foolish”. But you’ve got some moveable pieces in my mind: a surplus of outfield talent (including one that plays a pretty good first base – Duncan looked as good there yesterday as he looks bad in LF). A few rotation prospects, and one starter who needs a fresh start in Reyes. And you have some needs (in my mind, another quality starter and a way around the Itzurus/[Pitcher]/Kennedy hole in our lineup).

As for your list, I agree Rasmus is untouchable, and I liked what I saw in Garcia yesterday (esp as a lefty). I think Anderson demands a look. But that stems entirely from my view that this team has 2 foundational position players: Albert and Yadi. Watching Yadi talking up the team yesterday, both while warming up the pitchers b/w innings and during/after his at bat was inspirational. If you agree he’s our catcher/quarterback for the next 6 years or more, you have to see what value is out there for Anderson. Not a rental obviously, but someone who can help now and over the next couple years.

by Secret Weapon on Jul 21, 2008 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, well

One coud argue that a team can’t just sign impact free agents anymore. You need to trade for them with prospects, then sign them to a huge deal. It takes both for many of those stars nowadays. Look at Johan Santana, Erik Bedard, etc.

by Hal Lanier's Pants on Jul 21, 2008 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just so you know

Miles will be signed to a 3 year contract today or tomorrow. Hahah.

by sdrone on Jul 21, 2008 9:00 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

ran across this article

about stan the man…sorry if its already been floated around here, but its a great read

http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/07/19/musial/

i take your signatures and use them as away messages

by ihavebadknees on Jul 21, 2008 9:08 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Joe Po

excellent writer.

by liam on Jul 21, 2008 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the heads-up on the Musial article

As a longtime fan of Stan The Man, that was wonderful reading. How’s his health? Not seeing him at the All-Star Game in NYC made me concerned.

As for the current Cards, guys – as gritty as this team is (ya gotta love ‘em), you HAVE to have a consistent closer or you aren’t going to make it into the playoffs. As the Red Sox are finding out, you also need at least one other decent setup man. Cardinal management: please figure something out here…..and stop pitching guys who, game after game, have shown they can’t get the job done. This team deserves a playoff spot, but it won’t happen with our current ‘pen.

by ccthemovieman on Jul 21, 2008 9:45 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

We need a lot of things...

... but the need for a dependable closer seems to outweigh the need for a starter right now. To me, at least.

by birdjam on Jul 21, 2008 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nope

Carp, Mo, TLR and Duncan all say he’ll be a starter….

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Jul 21, 2008 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I certainly don't expect it to actually happen...

... but I was wondering what others thought of the idea.

by birdjam on Jul 21, 2008 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

When Carpenter and Wainwright get back

they won’t need to rely on the pen so much…hopefully. I like the idea of two aces plus Lohse as our front line for the playoffs.

by Red in Chicago on Jul 21, 2008 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll take Carpenter, Wainwright, Lohse

over Sabathia, Sheets, Suppan OR Zambrano, Harden, Dempster

we’ll see how it plays out.

"Give a man a fire, and he’ll be warm for a night. Set him on fire and he’ll be warm for the rest of his life."

by BigMOman on Jul 21, 2008 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

wow

Drinking some Kool-Aid are we?

Considering our top two starters are returning from injury I think I’d much rather have the Cubs top 3, although I’d put Lilly in there instead of Harden. I’d also rather have Sabathia and Sheets than 2 pitchers coming off of injuries.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jul 21, 2008 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lilly instead of Harden?!?!?!?

The same Ted Lilly with a 4.49 ERA (4.60 FIP)??? Harden is the best pitcher in the majors when he’s on the field. As it stands right now he’s on the field.

"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA

by joker24 on Jul 21, 2008 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Absolutely...

correct!!! Harden is untouchable when healthy.

by cardzfanbub on Jul 21, 2008 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Key point being:
when he’s on the field.

I would take a guy who’s going to give me 200 innings over a guy who’s going to give me 120 and spend half of the season on the DL. Lilly has been very good the past two seasons and has been effective the last two months after a terrible start. With Z, Dempster and Lilly, I can afford to have Harden because the other three guys are getting to 6th or 7th innings after every start so that Harden only has to go 5 or so.

Either way, my original post stands on it’s merits—I’d much rather have either of those trios than Carp, WW, and Lohse, when two of those guys are coming off injuries.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jul 21, 2008 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I believe Harden is all set

to go 5 innings again tonight.

by Tackle Box on Jul 21, 2008 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No. Yours is kind of an obnoxious comment, too.

Maybe we could have the Brewers’ top two starters in a perfect world. But it isn’t a perfect world, and you evidently didn’t even bother to read the thread above. The comment was in response to the question of whether Carpenter should close games. Geez…

by Red in Chicago on Jul 21, 2008 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wellemeyer as Closer

After Carp and Adam return, we lose our AAA friend, a send one starter to the ‘pen.

Of course, anointing Wall-E the closer leaves Looper in the rotation, but we have to be forward thinking. When the play-offs arrive, we’ll contract to a four-man rotation. So we need to give Wall-E some time to adjust to the closer role. So we suffer few a few more Looper starts until October.

So says, Titus Pullo (formerly The Dude)

by Titus Pullo on Jul 21, 2008 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

if welley

Get’s his spilter back than yes. last few games he has struck out less than 3.

by Evilfrog on Jul 21, 2008 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wellemeyer

doesn’t throw a splitter. He’s a fastball-slider guy and throws a straight change about 13% of the time.

by chuckb on Jul 21, 2008 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I meant slider

Really you people should just ignore my posts while Im at work. I’m multitasking like a mad man.

by Evilfrog on Jul 21, 2008 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He threw an effective slider

in the later innings on Saturday, for the pitches we have f/x data for in innings 4-7, he threw 10 sliders: 3 for balls, 2 for swinging strikes, 1 for a called strike three, 1 fouled off. Two were put in play, one on an infield pop-up foul that was caught for an out, the other for a flyout.

And I’m pretty sure he struck out Hairston on a 1-2 slider as the last batter he faced.

I’m willing to bet a small stack of internet dollars that Wellemeyer turned the corner in that start.

by liam on Jul 21, 2008 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I dunno

I play alot of golf, and many times I’ve been playing, and toward the last 5 or 6 holes I’ll think I’ve “figured something out” and try to carry it over to my next round, only to have something else mechanically go wrong. I hope you’re right though, we need a solid Welley for the stretch run.

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on Jul 21, 2008 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree we need Welley to be back to his first half self

but I’m not sure if he should be a starter, or the closer (I’ve always liked this idea)

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2008 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think

Welley has intentionally started throwing fewer sliders so as to lighten the work load on his elbow.

Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.

by Eckstreem on Jul 21, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Looper hasn't been fooling anyone

in his last few starts. Maybe he needs to go to the pen when/if Carp and WW return.

Proud sponsor of the Official 2008 StL Cardinal theme song: "Beautiful Day" by U2

by gocards62 on Jul 21, 2008 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's a solid No. 5

and he’s adamant about starting. Wouldn’t you be if it was worth $3-5 million a year more than your previous occupation?

by Red in Chicago on Jul 21, 2008 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

not gonna happen

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2008 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Big series starting tonight

Here’s hoping we see the “big game” Pineiro (6.1 IP 0 ER vs. PHI) instead of the other Pineiro (5.2 IP 6 ER vs. PIT)

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on Jul 21, 2008 11:04 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Bonds

As anyone can verify from my past comments, I’m a pretty big Barry Bonds hater.

That said, I can’t help concluding that acquiring Bonds as a free agent would probably do more to make the Cards serious contenders than any other single move.

One more observation—the press would go absolutely ape-shit to have Pujols and Bonds back-to-back in a line up, as Bonds sought to obtain the one accomplishment that has eluded him in his otherwise completely illustrious career.

Realistically, however, it’s plain as day to me that the owners have colluded to bar Bonds from baseball, so I don’t see this happening. Presumably there would be some consequence to violating the embargo. I can’t imagine what it would be, but it must be something pretty significant.

So says, Titus Pullo (formerly The Dude)

by Titus Pullo on Jul 21, 2008 11:15 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Collusion

means they sat down and hashed out an agreement. i sincerely doubt that ever happened. there could easily be unspoken rules, however. good luck proving that in court.

by spencegrif on Jul 21, 2008 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

disagree

i’ll set your “plain as day” assertions about collusion aside – assertions for which you have no evidence, and which (for whatever this is worth) bud selig flatly denied recently. i’ll also ignore any “clubhouse” or “morale” effect signing bonds would have on the rest of the team’s performance, and assume it would be zero. because even given that, i just disagree that signing bonds “would probably do more to make the Cards serious contenders than any other single move.”

1. it’s not entirely clear what kind of shape bonds is in at this point, and we know he hasn’t been playing. so even if he was signed today, i’d highly doubt he could play tomorrow. even if he could, that’s 59 games left in the season after tonight.

2. bonds hasn’t been an everyday player in years. so there’s a question as to how many games he’d give the team – again, even if he was ready to start tomorrow, which i doubt he would be. i think you’d be very optimistic to predict bonds getting more than 130 or so plate appearances for the rest of the year, factoring in days off, late defensive replacements, etc. and, again, that’d be if he was signed today.

3. bonds would be replacing schumaker, essentially, in the lineup. by vorp, schumaker is the 5th-best cardinal hitter this year; his line is .293/.359/.424/.783. that’s not 2007 barry bonds, but it’s pretty solid for a leadoff hitter.

4. if you swap bonds for schumaker, i guess maybe the first two spots before pujols go from schu-miles to something like miles-ankiel, which might be better. but there’s a decent chance it would actually mean tlr makes it something like kennedy-miles, which would be way, way worse.

5. quite a bit of what bonds adds in offense, he’d give right back with defense. the cards have 3 plus outfield defenders right now, and bonds would really mess that up.

i’m not saying bonds wouldn’t help. again, assuming the morale/clubhouse/media circus effect would be zero, i think bonds could improve the team by a win or so over the rest of the year. but to say that would improve the team more than any other move they could make? i’m not even looking up any stats, nor am i spending time coming up with the very best example i can think of. i think i can just stop at brian roberts.

e'rebuilding mang

by nycbirdo on Jul 21, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Evidence

1. Would adding Brian Roberts over Miles provide more of an improvement than Bonds subbing for Schumaker?

First, Miles and Roberts are not far apart.
Miles: AVG .323 OBP .363 SLG .409 OPS+ 105
Roberts AVG .291 OBP .373 SLG .484 OPS+128

So far, Roberts has hit four more HRs than Miles in roughly half the season. Presuming that trends holds, Roberts gives another 4 HRs.

Bonds vs Schu
Bonds (2007) AVG .276 OBP .480 SLG .565 OPS+ 170
Schu (2008) AVG .293 OBP .359 SLG .424 OPS+ 107

In half a season, Schu has hit six HRs. In all of 2007, Bonds hit 28. If Bonds hits them out at the same rate this year as last, you would expect 14 HRs, or an improvement of 8 HRs over the second half.

2. Just looking are OPS+, Bonds gives you a differential of .63 versus an differential of .23 between Roberts and Miles, i.e., an advantage that is three times greater.

3. Looking at WPA, in 2007 Bonds posted a WPA of 4.69. Skip by comparison has posted .80 in half a season, or 1.6 over a full season. The differential there is 3.09, or 1.5 in added win probability over the remaining half season.

Roberts has a WPA of 1.54, compared to .99 for Miles, for differential of .53. Thus, Bonds provides an upside of win probability of 3 times that obtained by acquiring Roberts. And that includes Bonds defense last year.

All in all, Bonds reasonably could provide an upside that is roughly three times greater than that provided by Roberts.

4. Will Bonds perform up to 2007 standards? Is he in shape? The Red Baron addressed that here. Bonds wants to play, and says he is ready to do so.

5. Collusion. Do I have evidence? Sure don’t. No witness statementw, no documents, and no video.

But how else to explain how no competitive team is taking a simple measure that would benefit their chances of winning? All the sudden teams aren’t acting in their self-interest?

Pul-ease. We’ve seen this before in baseball. When owners all decide at the same time not to act in their individual self-interest in one particular way, it creates a valid inference of collusion.

So says, Titus Pullo (formerly The Dude)

by Titus Pullo on Jul 21, 2008 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

they don't want him to put more homeruns onto his record

and they don’t want the media circus and ego attached. probably an unspoken ban

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bonds 2nd half

You’re assuming a ton of things:

1. Barry plays as many innings and gets as many PA’s as Schumaker.

Bonds only had 176 PA in 48 games in the 2nd half of 2007. He can’t play more than 4 days in a row, and can’t play day games after a night game. So he virtually sits every fourth day and each Sunday. TLR would probably replace him in the 6th or 7th inning in each game he plays, because he’s such a defensive liability, so he only gets around 2-3 AB’s in the games that he plays. He might be good for 150-180 PA’s over the rest of the entire season.

2. That he plays as well as he did last year. His 2nd half split in 2007: .248/.426/.526. That’s still mighty good, but significantly lower than his first half and overall numbers for that season. He’s showed a statistical decline in each season over the past 3, with the exception being OBP. With Ankiel, Glaus, or Ludwick hitting behind him, pitchers may actually challenge him to hit the baseball, something they haven’t done the past couple of years, for whatever reason that is. If he’s as good as he was in the first half of 2007, then I say sign him, but there’s no way to know. This is guy who has to stretch for 3 hours before batting practice just to get loose enough to take swings. How is his body going to react to sitting for nearly a year without playing? Again, there’s no way to know.

3. That Miles isn’t going to regress towards the mean. Which he might very well do—he’s playing way above his head right now, so you can’t honestly assume that he’s just “figured it out” this season. I’m happy with his performance thus far, but Roberts has averaged that type of production for about 6-8 seasons in a row, and would probably benefit from hitting atop a much better lineup.

4. You’re replacing Miles for Roberts, but forgetting the Skip probably moves to the 9 hole and provides us much better production out of that spot than what we’re getting with Cesar/Ryan hitting there. Bringing Barry in doesn’t create better production from those spots—we’d still have Kennedy and Iz2 hitting there. You’re just assuming that his production in the 4 spot would be much better than it is currently, which I believe is a bit over league average for cleanup hitters in the big leagues.

5. Barry’s defense is a liability, Roberts is no GG candidate, but he’s much better than Miles at the keystone. Right now, the Cards have a top 5 outfield with Ank, Lud, and Skip. Adding Bonds to LF would probably drop their ball-catching ability by a large factor.

True, Barry doesn’t cost us anything except a league minimum salary and Roberts would cost us a prospect or two, but every point you placed above can be argued the other direction because you simply don’t know if he’s going to be “Barry Bonds, Home Run King” or “Barry Bonds, Washed Up”

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jul 21, 2008 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A few quick responses

1. We’re well past the halfway point, and even if we signed Bonds today we’d be even further along (~110 games played? = >2/3 through), so the differences in counting stats won’t be as big as you say, even assuming Bonds performs at the same level as last year.

4. Of course Bonds says he is ready to play; what else is he going to say, even if he’s having problems? The fact is he’s almost 44 and has had chronic leg problems for years. Presumably those are only going to get worse, and it’s a big assumption that he would perform at the same level he did last year. It seems a lot more reasonable, at least to me, to expect some drop-off in playing time and/or performance; of course the question then becomes how much.

5. I don’t think it’s nearly as obvious as you claim that teams are acting against their self-interest by not signing him. With questions about his health, questions about his personality and clubhouse chemistry, and the near-certainty of a constant media circus, owners may reasonably conclude that Bonds isn’t worth the trouble. You might not agree, but that doesn’t make them obviously wrong.

by BTown Birds fan on Jul 21, 2008 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

evidence?

1. what fourstick and btown said.

2. in addition to the fact that we’re not talking about half the season left at this point (just over a third, really – 59 games out of 162), you’re also not taking into consideration that bonds won’t be ready tomorrow. will carroll over at bp was asked this exact question in a chat today, and his response was that bonds would likely be ready to play in a “couple weeks” – and that would be as a dh, not as an outfielder. you’re really talking about 50 games, and, as fourstick and i both mentioned, bonds isn’t going to play anywhere near those 50 games.

3. your comparison of roberts to miles doesn’t tell the whole story. adam kennedy has been the second baseman for well more than half the team’s games, racking up 242 PAs at .272/.318/.344. so more than half of what roberts would be taking over for would be THAT, not miles’ numbers, even if miles didn’t regress. (note that i recognize there’s some of this going on with skip and duncan/barton, too, but a) not as much, and b) the dropoff from skip to duncan isn’t as big as the one from miles to kennedy.)

4. it’s really, really distorting, at least in my mind, to use bonds’ 2007 numbers. i realize it’s hard for projection systems to deal with bonds, given the uniqueness of his career, but i have to think his 2008 PECOTA weighted mean is a more reliable measure than his 2007 numbers. his 2008 PECOTA weighted mean has him at .246/.420/.494. again, no small potatoes, but given the fact that roberts would be taking time away from both kennedy and miles, miles’ possible regression, and bonds’ lesser playing time, roberts is a clear winner to me.

5. re: collusion, you say the teams arent acting in ways “that would benefit their chances of winning” or “in their self-interest.” first of all, i think those are two different things. some owners may believe bonds is washed-up, etc., and therefore not likely to help their teams even from an individual performance level. second, some owners are probably concerned about the clubhouse/morale/media circus element that i’ve taken as zero above; some owners probably think it just isn’t worth the risk, and this could be ESPECIALLY true for a contending team. just on the off chance he’d throw off the rest of the team’s performance, why would a team like the sox, sox, angels, or cubs, as just a few examples, bring in barry bonds, when they think they’ve got a good chance with the teams they’ve got? third, given the way bonds is viewed by the general non-giant-fan public, some owners may be concerned that signing him would create a backlash that would negatively impact the team’s revenues and value – thus hurting the owner’s self interest EVEN IF it helps the team’s chances of winning.

so, essentially, i don’t buy your assumptions that by not signing bonds, owners are knowingly failing to act in ways that would benefit their chances of winning or in their individual self-interest. they could just as plausibly believe it’s in their self-interest not to do so.

e'rebuilding mang

by nycbirdo on Jul 21, 2008 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So

Is Sammy Sosa being colluded against as well? He had a good season for the Rangers last year and doesn’t have a job, despite being much younger than Bonds and not a complete stiff pole on defense.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jul 21, 2008 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bonds is twice the hitter

Sosa is. Sosa was 1 dimensional (only good vs LHP).

And yes, it could be possible Sosa is being colluded against too.

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 21, 2008 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

no comparison

Sosa put up a .311 OBP last year. Meanwhile, Bonds managed to OBP .480.

by jdub176 on Jul 21, 2008 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No comparison?

There’s plenty of comparisons between them—aging outfielders who can still hit a bit better than league average that are sitting at home because nobody thinks that they will add anything to their ballclub this year.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jul 21, 2008 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that's what i said

Saying that Bonds “can still hit a bit better than league average” is like saying Josh Hamilton “has some pop in his bat.” The fact is, Bonds put up a 170 OPS+ last year…Sosa’s was 102. For a corner outfielder, that’s not good, especially since Sosa hasn’t stolen more than 10 bases since 1998. That’s what I meant by “no comparison.”

by jdub176 on Jul 21, 2008 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bonds

is 44 years old. He did put up a 170 OPS+ last year. Fantastic. Unfortunately he’s a year older and hasn’t had an at-bat since September of last year. I’m sure he’s just going to come back and start hitting balls off of the Arch at a record pace.

The Giants last year didn’t have another bat that could hit out of a wet-paper bag. Why would anyone pitch to the guy with no help anywhere in that lineup? This is my honest opinion: If pitchers were actually to start challenging him to hit the baseball, Bonds’ OPS would come down quite a bit - his numbers are inflated by the fact that he walks every third plate appearance. He’s not near the hitter that he’s been in years past, and if you watched him last year he struggled against pitchers with good fastballs that went after him. If he’s hitting .250, it doesn’t make sense to pitch around him - sooner or later someone’s going to figure that out.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jul 21, 2008 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not vouching for the Cards to sign Bonds

I’m just saying that his name doesn’t belong in the same sentence as Sosa’s. Of course Bonds has declined. But he still hit 28 homers last year in 340 at-bats. There’s a reason no one pitches to him. He also has a great eye – don’t discount all the walks he drew.

His BAbip in the second half last year was .212, so that accounts for his numbers dropping off somewhat. For what it’s worth, he hit .278/.535/.514 against power pitchers last year, as designated by B-R.

by jdub176 on Jul 21, 2008 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

and meanwhile

I still don’t get how Bonds and Sosa belong in the same sentence together at this stage in their careers.

by jdub176 on Jul 21, 2008 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bond needs to DH for the Yankees, he’ll fit right in! Or Boston, even better. Then he wont have to run, except maybe trot around all four bases or walk to first or back to the bench.

Being Aaron Miles has to be so much more fun than being you...

by cardschinmusic on Jul 22, 2008 5:28 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

another great Cardinal player

who isn’t really as good as he plays while wearing Bird on the Bat. I love it. I live in a KC, and there are quite a few bitter, jealous Royals fans who can only dream of getting the kind of production out of players like StL does. During the KC series, they were like “How in the hell does Jason effing Larue hit 4 rbis, I HATE St Louis!”

"Give a man a fire, and he’ll be warm for a night. Set him on fire and he’ll be warm for the rest of his life."

by BigMOman on Jul 21, 2008 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

ditto...

on all accounts.

by stlfan on Jul 21, 2008 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Garcia's pitching

To open old wounds: last night Garcia pitched better against the Padres than Reyes did against the Rangers’ AAA team.

by liam on Jul 21, 2008 11:29 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

it's very possible

that the Rangers AAA team has a better lineup than the padres.

I'd rather my sister be a prostitute than my brother a Cub fan.

by _pistol_ on Jul 21, 2008 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was there last night

Much like last year, Reyes was decent the first time through the lineup, but then they start hitting him, and hitting him hard. He got unlucky when a throw from Rasmus hit a runner sliding into third, then bounced into the stands….. his fastball never got above 92 and mostly stayed around 89-91. Not a good outing.

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Jul 21, 2008 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i thought it was the opposite of that last year?

he would get hammered the first time through the lineup before settling down in the middle innings.

by adiueordie on Jul 21, 2008 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Reyes is damanged goods at ths point

If I was another team I’d just wait for him to become a minor league free agent and try to sign him. This organization has, imo, done him a series of disservices over the last few years.

by azruavatar on Jul 21, 2008 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yep. The master plan to increase his trade value has backfired magnificently.

They can and should trade him for whatever minor league player they can get. He did have a rough go of it last night, wait until after next start though.

Someone needs to give Nelson Cruz another look at the ML level. He is absolutely crushing the AAA pitching he’s seeing. He hit 5 homers-FIVE HOMERS-over the series against Memphis.

Seriously, that Oklahoma line up probably is better than the Padres…....and yeah, that is a dis to the Padres.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Jul 21, 2008 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jack Wilson is available...

Even if Grabow or Marte aren’t. Just saying…

by Red in Chicago on Jul 21, 2008 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

but the best value may be to let him stabilize the Memphis rotation

and then to let him walk at the end of the year. Just because you get “something” for him, doesn’t mean it’s worth trading him over letting him walk. His benefit to the Memphis rotation might be greater than a roster filler lower in the minors that does nothing but crowd a roster.

And I agree, the plan to increase his trade value backfired, but that’s the risk you take. Could have gone the other way too where they trade a player they might not want to keep, and then he gets even better a year later and it turns out you sold low. Nothing is an exact science.

by Tackle Box on Jul 21, 2008 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm doubtful

that the Cardinals will just let him walk after this year.

He’s under team control—they can sign him on their own terms or through arbitration, in which case keeping him in Memphis this year should work wonders for presenting an argument to the arbitrator for a low salary.

They can trade him anytime before March 30th, 2009… Or pitch him for the Cardinals if he looks like a contributor.

by liam on Jul 21, 2008 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The only thing is that right now he's not blocking anyone

Next year, he probably will be. You may be right, and they’ll probably be able to get something of value to the organization next offseason (spring training).

by Tackle Box on Jul 21, 2008 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I read somewhere that Duncan was pissed at Reyes

because he thought Anthony had gone to see some pitching guru in California in the offseason. His “fingerprints” were all over Reyes’s delivery, and he was evidently doing some things Duncan didn’t appreciate. This doesn’t diminish in any way the mistakes that have been made with him, but I do think there was a bit of a rift before the season started.

by Red in Chicago on Jul 21, 2008 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, no

All good doctors encourage them.

by Red in Chicago on Jul 21, 2008 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's my point (sorta)

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on Jul 21, 2008 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Coaching is slightly different than the medical field

There are so many philosophies in regards to pitching and hitting that if a player gets too many opinions, it might simply confuse him and he becomes a bigger mess. The organization is obviously trying to teach him to pitch a certain way and, according to this, he defied them. Is their way the best way? Maybe, maybe not. But what does he think is going to be the result of such a consultation? He changes his mechanics or the way he pitches and thinks they’ll never notice?

by Tackle Box on Jul 21, 2008 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Are they going to screw Raz

because he started listening to his Dad again?

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Jul 21, 2008 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He was smart

to listen to his dad. Put that guy on the payroll.

by liam on Jul 21, 2008 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ha! I disagree to a certain extent.....

I used to work in a doctors office-there were 5 of ‘em. Four of them were highly insulted when a second opinion was obtained-even when required by insurance. I’d say it depends on the doctor and his or her level of arrogance…..

All five of them were considered very good doctors. Incidentally, they didn’t mind at all offering second opinions on OTHER DOCTORS patients. Go figure.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Jul 21, 2008 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

heh. funny stuff.

my mother is a very successful pediatrician in the st. louis area. what’s really interesting to me is when a non-arrogant doctor simply knows that the second opinion comes from someone who’s not as good as them, and unfortunately not all doctors are exactly created equal.

by mattybobo on Jul 21, 2008 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, that's so true.

I worked for OB/GYN’s—I’ll say the pediatricians toil away as a labor of love-long hours, much lower wages than other types of doctors, patients that can’t talk, get violently ill all of a sudden, pushy parents, crying kids, vomiting kids…... On behalf of all mothers, thank your own mother for me, will you?

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Jul 21, 2008 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That would definitely be

one of the pitching coaches on Scott Boras’ staff. Duncan wouldn’t be the only MLB coach annoyed by Boras’ people screwing with developing pitchers.

But they did a great job keeping Lohse in shape and ready for game action during most of March.

by liam on Jul 21, 2008 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

PD pictures

does anyone know how to save the pictures on the pd to your computer? Not the ones on the front page, but the ones in the Photo Album. Was looking to update my wallpaper and thought the Miles celebration at home would be fun for a while. Unfortunately, when you right click on it, it just brings up stuff about Adobe Flash as opposed to the options to copy or save picture as file or whatever.

by Tackle Box on Jul 21, 2008 11:46 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think the P-D slideshow is a Flash presentation

Try stopping the show by using the manual arrow commands, then just take a screen shot of the picture. You can clean up the borders, if need be, in Photoshop or whatever you have.

by Red in Chicago on Jul 21, 2008 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

here's a different way to get the original

probably not easier, but it requires no photo editing skills

- go to the gallery.
- click and drag the thunbnail to the address bar in your browser

- in the URL address, you’ll see a file name that ends in T.jpg
- change the T to an E to see the original file.

I'd rather my sister be a prostitute than my brother a Cub fan.

by _pistol_ on Jul 21, 2008 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Whatever I did

didn’t exactly work (I got a tiny pic that was the same size as the thumbnail, which is useless). So i took the pic you posted (which wasn’t the one I was looking for…I wanted the one with the whole team celebrating) and cut and pasted the last group of digits (+ the “E”) and it got me the origional file.

by Tackle Box on Jul 21, 2008 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yup. looks great on the desktop

for whatever reason. when I drag into the address bar, i get a line that looks like this.

C:\Documents and Settings\Owner\Local Settings\Temporary Internet Files\Content.IE5\WPUVSLIV9713513T1.jpg

and not the one you posted that looks like this:

http://stltoday.mycapture.com/PHOTOS/STLT/559679/19713513E.jpg

by Tackle Box on Jul 21, 2008 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

thanks for my new desktop background

by pujols05 on Jul 21, 2008 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

here's mine for both the lap top & desk top

guess when it was taken?

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Jul 21, 2008 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wainwright as the closer

On either Thursday’s or Friday’s telecast of the game, Dan or Al mentioned the idea that if Carp and Wainwright come back, moving Wainwright to the closer’s role. I know that only works if the rest of the starting staff holds together (Pinero, Looper, Wellemeyer and Lohse-the first 3 have experienced some problems as of late with Wellie’s elbow, Pinero’s increased ERA over his last three starts, and Looper not looking very good in his last start), but if it does hold together, that would certainly solve the problem if Wainwright can do it again. That would also mean that the rest of the bullpen could assume more normal roles-Franklin setting up in the 8th, and Spring and McClellan in the 7th and 6th if necessary with lefties sprinkled in to shut down LH batters. Of course, given Flores’ poor performance yesterday, we still might need to go out and get a LH reliever. I just don’t think Garcia is quite ready for this level.

by Wahoo on Jul 21, 2008 12:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd crap my pants if they move Wainwright to being a closer

If it’s a pressing enough need for them to move a #1 caliber pitcher to the closer role then they need to deal for Fuentes. Not to mention the ‘09 outlook where Waino needs some innings to condition that arm.

"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA

by joker24 on Jul 21, 2008 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd only condone it...

if it’s because his finger problem can’t handle the innings required to be a starter. WW as the closer would make our team much stronger.

by cardzfanbub on Jul 21, 2008 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Amen to that!

I’d tell Adam, “Don’t worry, you’ll start again in 2009. We’re in a bind, as we were in 2006 and we need you desperately as the closer.”

The above is ONLY if TLR ,Duncan and Waino all agree. I trust their judgment.

I would be SO pumped to see him as our closer again. We can’t keep giving games away in the eighth and ninth innings.

by ccthemovieman on Jul 21, 2008 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Its pretty evident that we need a closer

and it doesn’t look like Izzie can do the job. Franklin has been doing it, but I don’t think he is that “lights out” plus Franklin could move back to the set up guy. Having WW close would improve not only the closer, but the rest of the bullpen because they would be pitching in easier roles for them. The way the announcers talked about it, I kinda think it came from the organization (pure speculation). It would be moot point if Pinero, Wellemeyer or Looper fall apart as starters, but if Carpernter comes back and pitches well, I would be in favor of letting WW close (with his, Duncan’s and TLR’s blessing). I think you are undervaluing our need for a competent closer. How many blown saves do we have? 21? I do understand we have to get to that position to have a blown save and that using WW in the pen decreases those odds. Personally, I think it could be worth it.

by Wahoo on Jul 21, 2008 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah

only if the finger is limiting him to shorter innings. plus, we won the world series last time he was our closer

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2008 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We also won the World Series the last time Jeff Weaver was in our rotation

Care to acquire him?

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on Jul 21, 2008 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

not him

but we may just do the equivalent

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2008 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pujols comments at All Star game?

One of the Chicago radio stations was talking about yesterday’s Cards game, and how the Cardinals seem to be a team that in spite all the crap happening, just won’t give up.

They tied it into Pujols’ remarks at the All Star game. Apparently he was saying that the young guys on the team are all winners. If something happens – error, Wellemeyer gives up 5 runs in 3 innings – they get past it immediately and think about how to win the game.

Anyone see these remarks? THis is the first I’d heard of it.

by sdrone on Jul 21, 2008 12:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Who are the young guys he was talking about?

Not disagreeing, just curious.

I agree, and I think that is a trait that can take a team a LONG ways. The STL roster isn’t too far off from being pretty dang dominant. Need to sure up the pen, stabilize the MI, and get our rotation healthy.

by SoonerfanTU on Jul 21, 2008 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that trait got the Rockies into the playoffs

and the world series last year

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2008 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I saw the remarks, but don't remember the site

The gist of it was that the young guys (no one mentioned by name) were relentless and always played a hard 9. The part that caught my attention was he said something to the effect of, “this is the first time we have been like this in a long time.” Sounded like a shot at some unnamed former teammates.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Jul 21, 2008 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

OT

Didn’t see it posted anywhere else but it looks as if the Brewers picked up Ray Durham for a couple of minor leaguers.

I know some on this site were thinking the Cards should at least ask about him.

by AirForceCardsFan on Jul 21, 2008 1:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Durham and Meredith

After seeing what the Brew Crew gave up for Durham, I’m a little sad we didn’t make a play. That shows me that the club doesn’t want to release a guy like Kennedy or Iz, and that they don’t want to send Ryan down. Makes me wonder what kind of move Mo would make for a bat, considering we’re fairly set everywhere else.

MLB Rumors states that Meredith is getting interest. Anybody else like to see him in our pen? Not sure how old he is, but I’d think he’d be around for a few seasons. Maybe he can replace Springer, if he retires.

by SoonerfanTU on Jul 21, 2008 1:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Well, it would be good for Meredith

Because then he wouldn’t have to face Pujols anymore :P

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on Jul 21, 2008 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

we should get Lidge too.

And Brandon Backe…...oh wait..I’m speaking out of turn now.

by Tackle Box on Jul 21, 2008 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

and don't forget Odalis Perez !

Proud sponsor of the Official 2008 StL Cardinal theme song: "Beautiful Day" by U2

by gocards62 on Jul 21, 2008 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also.....

Same note over there says that the Rangers are taking calls on Cruz, and likely would want young pitching back. Reyes? Boggs? Obviously wouldn’t move Garcia or Todd.

by SoonerfanTU on Jul 21, 2008 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Phonetically

“Cla” is pronounced the same way as “Clay” (it has to do with the “a” making a long vowel sound since it is not followed by a consenant), so while I agree it looks weird, it still counts i guess.

by Tackle Box on Jul 21, 2008 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not Red, but that's the point...

"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA

by joker24 on Jul 21, 2008 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think the Cardinals wanted Durham

they are too defense focused to want that guy

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2008 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I love holliday

But I’ve come to the realization that it will never happen. He is just to high of a price. This was a deal that fell through between the phils and roxs:

The Phils would have received Holliday and left-handed reliever Brian Fuentes, the Rockies’ current closer. The Rockies would have received outfielder Shane Victorino and three prospects in Double-A—catcher Lou Marson and pitchers Carlos Carrasco and J.A. Happ.

"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson

by Bahamaredbird on Jul 21, 2008 1:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

hm...

Colby is 2 for 2 (2B, 1B) so far for Memphis. In the 3rd, he reached on a single, stole 2nd, then scored on a throwing error by the catcher and center fielder.

by longhornscardinals on Jul 21, 2008 1:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Left handed shortstops don't usually work out so well

"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA

by joker24 on Jul 21, 2008 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seriously?

I was just making the point that we have no spot for him in the OF. He isn’t going to hit better than Ankiel and Ludwick currently are, and he probably wouldn’t out hit Skip vs righties. I understand that lefties can’t play SS, but it stinks that we don’t really have a spot for him.

by SoonerfanTU on Jul 21, 2008 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know I'm joking as well...

"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA

by joker24 on Jul 21, 2008 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually he will hit better against righties than Skip does

maybe not for higher average, but he will definitely put up > power #’s to go along with MUCH better speed. That being said, it doesn’t matter, he won’t be used this year regardless due to the Olympics, but this is most likely Skip’s last year in St. Louis because Rasmus will be starting in our OF next year. Most likely in CF with Ank being moved to RF.

boo cubs, hooray beer

by Raconteur on Jul 21, 2008 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually

Mo nor Larussa ruled out a possible September call up since the Olympics are over Aug 28th. It was in the PD over the weekend

Cubs blow

by Where is that Juan guy on Jul 21, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think that is an awesome trade

my gosh only if we can get them to take Kenndey off our books and they can take Mulder and Izzy too.
Now that would be the perfect blockbuster!

LOL!

Cubs blow

by Where is that Juan guy on Jul 21, 2008 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks to you and Hardcore Legend

for stepping in over there and throwing cold water on that idea…interesting analysis though on their part.

by tbell61 on Jul 21, 2008 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think

If we only gave up one other prospect, we’d almost certainly have to do that trade and look at locking up Crosby, Duchscherer, and Ellis long term. If that got done, we supplant our middle infield with players who can hit, add another good starter who could move to the bullpen and be lights out in the playoffs, and add a late-innings guy to the pen who’s been pretty good in the past and is having a down year this year.

Billy Beane would never put all of those guys in one trade when he could probably get 2 mid-level prospects for each guy. That’s what makes it look ridiculous from their end.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jul 21, 2008 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That trade

literally trumps anything that the Brewers and Cubs have done, even at the cost of our best prospect. We’re getting a former top prospect in return (Crosby), an All-Star caliber pitcher, a second baseman who gets killed in his home park (Ellis), and solid bullpen help in exchange for our best prospect and another good mid-level prospect or Anderson, who is blocked at the big league level.

Providing you could keep Ellis, Duchscherer, and Crosby/Street after this season, how could they NOT do that deal?

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jul 21, 2008 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Say what?

Ellis is 31, Crosby is 28. Crosby isn’t exactly lighting it up offensively anymore, Ellis is but his age is a concern.

How could I not do that deal? Well, I think about the fact that Ankiel is going to cost us $10+ M per year in his next contract, Ludwick has a long injury history, Skip is probably playing at his peak right now and Duncan has lost all his power.

And Colby Rasmus has great speed, good defense, makes good contact and has pop in his bat. He’s 22 years old and will cost peanuts for the next 6 years.

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 21, 2008 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

to add to that

If you look at Ellis’ career home/away splits, they’re pretty even – this season is an outlier. Crosby hasn’t been good since 2005. Duchscherer is 30 and this is the first season where he’s pitched more than 100 innings.

by jdub176 on Jul 21, 2008 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

well of course

he’s been a reliever for most of his career—this is his first shot at starting at the big league level and he’s been pretty durable most of his career when coming out of the pen and spot starting. Not fair to get on him because he’s never thrown 100 innings. Harden hasn’t thrown 120 innings since 2004, but I’m sure you’d trade for him.

Ellis is an upgrade at 2B, Crosby is an upgrade at SS. This team’s biggest problem is in the bullpen—Street and Embree take care of two needs there as well. With these additions, the bench becomes a lot more stable, you have more production out of the middle infield, another good starter in the rotation, and a vastly improved bullpen. It solves all of the needs that need attending to on the current ballclub. If you let Street, Crosby, and Embree walk, and sign both Duchscherer and Ellis, you’re not adding a ton of payroll for next year, you have a quality third starter on the team, and no hole at second base. That leaves enough cash to go out and look for a quality outfielder, since there are more of them around anyway, and starting SS.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jul 21, 2008 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i didn't say anything about harden, nor would i trade for him...

..especially is Rasmus were involved. Is Crosby much of an upgrade at short? A .243/.310/.386 career line tells me he’s not very good. And as far as I know, his defense isn’t that great, either.

by jdub176 on Jul 21, 2008 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

hmmmmm

Ank will be 30 by the time he gets to his next contract, but paying him $10 million a year at that age isn’t a concern but trading for Ellis at 31, when he probably won’t get offered that much as a free agent, is a concern.

True, Skip is probably playing at his peak, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be a good bench option/4th outfielder when he moves back towards the mean. Ludwick has been healthy for a year and a half, and is under team control for two more years. He probably won’t be coming back after that anyway unless he’s been healthy the whole time. Duncan hasn’t looked the same this year, but it’s possible he could return to form by next season—I’m not ready to give up on him just yet.

I wouldn’t necessarily want Crosby in the deal, but it’s not like we’re paying a ton just to get him in there either. What we’re paying for is bullpen help, an upgrade at 2B, and the addition of a good starter. If they could get those guys for say, Rasmus and Garcia, why would you pass on a chance to have a really solid club through 2010?

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jul 21, 2008 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That

is your opinion. Please don’t state it as fact. There are plenty of top prospects that flame out every single year. Bobby Crosby was a pretty good player in the minors but hasn’t lived up to his potential. The Cardinals have certainly had their share of those players over the years as well.

Rasmus hasn’t played a single inning in the big leagues. Garcia has made one start. You aren’t going to convince me that either of them are going to be All-Star caliber players until I actually get to see them play at the big league level. I agree that we shouldn’t deal the whole farm away, rebuilding through the farm system is necessary and vital to long term success. But if you have the chance to nab and All-Star starter and former All-Star closer as well as an above average 2B, and the LOOGY that your bullpen so desperately needs, I think giving up the top prospect might be worth looking at.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jul 21, 2008 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rasmus

did hit just about as well as anyone against big leaguers in ST.

by liam on Jul 21, 2008 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A former All-star closer

who is oft injured and is not very good right now, and an All-Star Starter who hasn’t logged over 100 innings as a starter before.

I just really can’t understand this line of reasoning. The guy rounded up all the average trade chips the A’s had left and then shot the moon for the best hitting prospect left in baseball. AND YOU BIT ON IT!

It’s so confusing. Ellis and Crosby AREN’T THAT GOOD.

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 21, 2008 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree Hardcore

I agree Fourstick there is a package that is worthy of Trading Rasmus for however this hypothetical Oakland package is not good enough in my opinion.

by ICbirdfan on Jul 21, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Duchscherer is plenty good

But he’s got a .215 BAbip-against right now. That’s not going to hold up.

by jdub176 on Jul 21, 2008 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Slight correction...

I agree with everything you said, but Rasmus (if he plays as expected) will cost peanuts only for the next 3 years…he’ll be a higher priced nut the 4th season (arbitration) and gourmet pricing in years five and six. My point is that by the fifth and sixth seasons good players aren’t “cheap” anymore.

by cardzfanbub on Jul 21, 2008 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They are much, much cheaper than their free agent replacements

"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA

by joker24 on Jul 21, 2008 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

Any potential trade with Beane needs to be viewed as skeptically as possible….

I think the A’s fan may be right that they have some pieces that we could use….I think the big problem is just that the Cards aren’t about to trade Rasmus at all.

I’m intrigued by Ellis, but Crosby doesn’t seem like an improvement over Miles. Would you trade Ryan for Ellis straight up?

by nota bene on Jul 21, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thinking about next year's outfield

It seems likely that next year’s trio is, from left to right, Ludwick, Rasmus, Ankiel. Whether Rasmus plays right initially doesn’t matter. Brian Barton, it would seem, has no place in an outfield like that, since he’s righthanded, weak-armed and cannot platoon with Ludwick (unless LaRussa finally acknowledges Ludwick’s reverse splits against righties—which he won’t do, IMO).

Barton and one of Schumaker or Duncan must therefore go unless Ludwick becomes a part-time player. Ergo, we have no business trading for another outfielder unless Ludwick gets shipped out. I guess that leaves us looking at the middle infield for help…again.

by Red in Chicago on Jul 21, 2008 2:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

IMO

It would be inexcusable to get rid of Skip and keep Duncan on the roster. I think Skip has more value than any player he would be traded for. As much as I hoped Duncan would turn into a consistent performer, well, that has not happened. Ankiel/Ludwick are clearly everyday players and while I think Rasmus will be our starting centerfielder next year, it may not be such an easy transition into the majors.

We need to acquire a top level second baseman over the winter. I think the Ryan/izturis combination might be good enough for another year but obviously, I say that hesitantly. I wouldn’t mind adding some speed either, since we really have none. Oh, and pitching!

by riotmute on Jul 21, 2008 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

but I would rather have a top SS than a 2B. Don’t want to see Miles at SS any more.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Jul 21, 2008 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why exactly?

does Barton have to go? You have only 3 OFs on your roster. We’re going to need a 4th and 5th OF and I see no reason why Barton can’t fill that role. Many people saw Barton as an immediate starter but most scouts saw him as a guy who’ll be a 4th or 5th OF. He’s got a little pop, can hit lefties, and has a little speed. I see no reason why he can’t be one of our reserve OFs.

by chuckb on Jul 21, 2008 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

mather?

It seems like barton is a logical candidate because there are better players coming up. (i say better without actually looking at the numbers)

by spencegrif on Jul 21, 2008 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Because he only plays left

and unless you want to platoon Ludwick, there’s no spot for him. If Ludwick is to be an everyday player (contra a platoon partner in right), then he has to play left, right? I don’t think we would waste Ankiel’s arm by playing him in left, and we certainly wouldn’t do that with Rasmus. Ideally, we need another righthander who can play center or right.

by Red in Chicago on Jul 21, 2008 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

but can't Ludwick move around the outfield?

Just going by the Espn Stats, he’s play all 3 and the majority of them are in right. So, just going by the match-ups that Tony would like to use. Against righties you have Ludwick in left, Ankiel and Rasmus playing either center or right (glad I don’t have to make that call) with Barton, and skip on the bench. Against, lefties you move Ludwick to right put Barton in left, and whoever isn’t getting the day off of Rasmus or Ankiel in center.

Though I do see a point that someone along with Duncan will have to go, Assuming you don’t send Barton down to AAA, and leave Mather down there another year. Which I am guessing both of those scenarios probably won’t happen

New Member of the Skip Schumaker Fan Club

by cyko42 on Jul 21, 2008 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, he can but

the numbers Ludwick’s put up this year if sustainable indictate that should be an everyday player, not a platoon-type player. Again, it’s well-established he can hit rights at least as well as lefts, but Tony doesn’t believe in reverse splits philosophically. You could argue that Ludwick’s a double-platoon partner for both Rasmus and Ankiel. That might allow for a Barton/Schumaker-type combo in left. But it’s kind of a lot of moving parts, and I think Ludwick would be a better fielder if he could just play one position most of the time.

Anyway, all this stuff will sort itself out, I’m sure. But it just seems like Barton in left is much less likely than Joe Mather in right as your fifth outfielder.

by Red in Chicago on Jul 21, 2008 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ankiel and Rasmus could probably play

the whole outfield with just the two of them.

by Red in Chicago on Jul 21, 2008 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

good point

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2008 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We should pioneer a rover position

And Barton and Skip are just the guys to do it (as a platoon)

by Ray Lankford on Jul 21, 2008 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yup

think we might trade Luddy?

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2008 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wasdin (Redbirds)

88 pitches, 11 strikeouts, no walks and no hits through 7 innings….... game of his life? (he’s 35, soon to be 36 on Aug.5).

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Jul 21, 2008 3:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Jinx!!

In play, run(s) on the first batter of the 8th.

by punditmoi on Jul 21, 2008 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Motte

didn’t pitch half bad himself.

by liam on Jul 21, 2008 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Two hitter

Allowed a single after the homerun, so he was pulled.

by liam on Jul 21, 2008 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Eckstein's 2005 homer...

That home run was even more memorable to me because, in the same at bat ,Eckstein squared up to bunt. In fact, I’m pretty sure the bunt attempt was on the pitch right before the home run. Does anyone else remember this?

Assuming I’ve remembered things right, I think this has to be one of the rarest plays in baseball—a home run one pitch after a bunt attempt by the same batter.

by ncgostl on Jul 21, 2008 3:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I thought he

showed bunt and knocked it out on the same pitch.

by jeff_abs on Jul 21, 2008 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

then

rounded the bases three times before the ball landed.

by spencegrif on Jul 21, 2008 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Aha - that sounds right

Thanks for the missing detail. The memory isn’t what it used to be. (Now can you tell me where I left my keys?)

Still a rare and intriguing combination, right?

by ncgostl on Jul 21, 2008 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wasn't that the AB where JRod was getting ready to

hit and Albert snatched his bat away from him and stuck it back in the rack?

That moment might have been my favorite (non-World Series) Cardinal moment of this decade. And it will always be my first memory of Albert.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 21, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was wrong, the Pujols/JRod scene

did not occur in that game. I went back and looked at the video, and in that game JRod was actually on deck when Eck hit the granny. It was some other game-winning hit by Eckstein (which may or may not have been a HR). Any idea when it might have been?

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 21, 2008 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You sure

that wasn’t Molina’s HR in the NLCS vs. the Mets?

by liam on Jul 21, 2008 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, I'm not.

But I hope it wasn’t that, because that illustrates just how faulty my memory is!

I DO know that it happened and that I saw it, so it wasn’t a complete hallucination.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 21, 2008 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

In that game

Belliard was batting behind Molina, but J-Rod would’ve been on deck, so it’s possible.

by liam on Jul 21, 2008 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK, I'll look into it,

but in my memory it was Eck at the plate, and it was a walk-off something, so it would have been in STL.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 21, 2008 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

hmm

i could have sworn it was the eckstein walk-off slam in 2005. maybe my memory’s just fuzzy.

by mattybobo on Jul 21, 2008 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

link

here. The author will be familiar…..the link he cites is broken, but he’s talking about the Eck walkoff GS game.

by nota bene on Jul 21, 2008 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I went back and watched the 9th

inning of the GS game and JRod was standing in the on-deck circle, and there was no shot of him interacting with Pujols. Is it possible a different network broadcast might have shown something?

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 21, 2008 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

it may not have been on camera

JR probably went out to the on-deck circle eventually, even after Pujols stopped him. But I’m pretty sure it was that game. I’ve been googling for it for 15 minutes and can’t find it.

by nota bene on Jul 21, 2008 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It was definitely that game.

I was there and saw it. I’m sure of it.

by Carps on Jul 21, 2008 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think

It was the game in which Eckstein squeezed home Hector Luna with the winning run against the Cubs—from the same month or so as the Eckstein grand slam

by tdawg on Jul 21, 2008 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was looking for that essay

several months ago for a different reason.

A really fine piece of writing.

by liam on Jul 21, 2008 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

as I remember the story

Pujols actually threw JRod’s bat down the clubhouse steps, but my memory may be embellishing it a bit. Either way, it’s a classic Pujols story. By the time that guy’s done there are going to be more of those.

by nota bene on Jul 21, 2008 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think it was the bat rack,

but you might be right. Now if we can just figure out when it happened.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 21, 2008 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lineup for the Cards tonight

Schumaker RF
Miles 2B
Pujols 1B
Ankiel CF
Glaus 3B
Duncan LF
Molina C
Pineiro P
Izturis SS

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Jul 21, 2008 4:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

looks like a pretty solid lineup

although it’s pretty hard to defend playing Duncan instead of Ludwick. hope I’m proved wrong

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2008 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Could be banged up? What are Dunc's #'s vs. the starter

There’s a reason Lud is not playing and I am not going to sweat it.

by ICbirdfan on Jul 21, 2008 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

McClung is starter for the Brewers

maybe it doesn’t matter which guy starts

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2008 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Weird

I thought McClung threw lefty for some reason…I dunno why though

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
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by Mr Redbird on Jul 21, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

and by maybe it doesn't matter which guy starts I mean

that hopefully we light up this guy enough to make up for the drop in defense. and maybe Dunc doesn’t strike out quite so much as Luddy

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2008 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He didn't get any rest

over the all-star break is probably why he’s sitting.

by liam on Jul 21, 2008 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that would be the obvious answer

day of rest

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2008 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

he sat thursday's game

and is .417/.500/.667/1.167 in the last three. I don’t think he is tired and we all know that is not the reason.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Jul 21, 2008 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

WTF

what happened to putting out the best lineup every night because we want to win now? Ludwick is better and hotter than both Schumaker and Duncan.

Ludwick’s splits over the last 7, 14, 28, and 365 days are all better than both Schumaker and Duncan and he hits .318/.394/.626/1.019 against RHPs.

I do not understand how someone who considers himself a “baseball man” can base lineup choices on ridiculously small sample sizes and ignore Ludwick’s clear dominance against RHPs. Maybe TLR doesn’t realize Lud is hitting .500 for his career against McClung [/end sarcasm].

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Jul 21, 2008 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

TLR is sort of a rogue scholar

he doesn’t usually make much sense but still ends up being effective. maybe he pinch hits Ludwick in some major situational play?

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2008 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah

like the first innning. There is no way you can spin it that you keep your team leader in HRs and RBIs on the bench for the first game of an important series like this. Sooner or later this kind of crap will cost TLR credibility with the team.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Jul 21, 2008 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It is awesome that tonight's game is on ESPN

I get to watch it!

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2008 5:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Anyone else enjoy the love fest we got on Fox

saturday? For those who didn’t catch it, Mark Grace was drooling over our team and fans. “St. Louis fans have pennant fever!” was my favorite line.

Let’s hope the love fest continues tonight on ESPN.

THE SKIP IS LEGIT!!

Seriously... what were Rich Harden's parents thinking?!?!?!

by stltrav09 on Jul 21, 2008 5:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

So much so that he got sloshed at DD's Lounge

the night before in Brentwood, MO.

Nice guy when he is slightly intoxicated

Cubs blow

by Where is that Juan guy on Jul 21, 2008 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah

I was kinda surprised that the Fox guys were actually giving us props

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 21, 2008 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

it's funny

Unless you are the Yankees or Red Sox apparently every fan base feels slighted.

It’s funny how the Cubs bitch about getting no love yet they do get love. I think STL gets the same boring love every year with the “best fans in baseball” line.

by ICbirdfan on Jul 21, 2008 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That line

is like a target.

Swaths of empty seats during a game – “there’s some of those best fans in baseball”

The wave going on while the Cards have the tying run at the plate in a tight game in the 7th inning – “the best fans in baseball are very much into the game here”

Izzzy getting booed mercilessly – “the self-proclaimed best fans in baseball are showing little patience with their team’s all-time saves leader”

shot after shot after shot of fans milling around the concourses, shopping, building plush Fredbirds, sitting a picnic tables, all whle the game is going on – “clearly these best fans in baseball are way into today’s game.”

That self-congratulatory label sets a standard that some cynics will say no fanbase can reach. And really, “best” is such a subjective word that many different franchises could lay claim to it, all with convincing arguments.

by Hal Lanier's Pants on Jul 21, 2008 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Miles and the 2nd base revolving door

Miles has done very well as a utility player for the Cardinals. After seeing that blast on Sunday everything just is going right this year for the Cardinals despite all the injuries to the rotation.

The Cardinals would have been better off just hanging onto Mark Grudzielanek who has continued to be a hit machine with KC. The last four years he has hit .307, .294, .297 and .302.

DYNASTY League Baseball - the leader in realism in Baseball simulation games from the designer of Pursue the Pennant.

by DYNASTYLeagueBaseballMike on Jul 21, 2008 6:18 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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