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Trade Rumour Roundup

Tough loss last night. That, unfortunately, was the Todd Wellemeyer that we saw so much of before he got here, the one that has largely been absent this season. Too many pitches, unable to put hitters away, just generally all the things you get from a pitcher who, despite the quality of his stuff, just isn't sharp enough to be successful.

It's not that I fear that Wellemeyer still isn't healthy, but I do still question the Cardinals' decision not to DL him. He looks like he's okay physically, but he doesn't look like he's right. He said it himself after last night's game; he could probably use another extra bullpen session or two to try and get back on track. Unfortunately, that's probably not going to happen. Now, of course, if the Cardinals had just put him on the shelf whenever he experienced the elbow issues, he would have had plenty of time to not only get healthy, but also to get his stuff ironed out before rejoining the rotation. Too late for all of that, I suppose. Don't get me wrong; I understand that the options to replace Welley in the rotation, even temporarily, weren't at all attractive, but watching the Cards give away games because of a pitcher who just isn't right is a less than enjoyable option.

In case you missed it, the Cardinals came to terms with their first round draft pick, Brett Wallace, yesterday. He signed for very slightly more than slot money, with a reported bonus of right around $1.84 million. I'm extremely glad the Cards moved so quickly to get this done early this year, rather than allowing the process to drag on until the signing deadline the way they did last year with Kozma. The sooner they can get Wallace into the system and playing ball, the better.

You know, the way the trade deadline is beginning to shape up this year, we may finally see some real movement this season. Every year, it seems we hear of all the big deals that are going to take place, yet the ESPN trade deadline special always seems to be mostly about a couple of middling relievers and a fourth outfielder or two. This year, though, I think we just may see that magic combination of teams with some excess in the farm system and several big names with reasons to be moved. So, in that spirit, let's take a look around at what some of the latest chatter may be.

Probably the biggest name on the trading block this year is the Indian's big lefty, C.C. Sabathia. It now actually appears that the Brewers (the article is insider only) may be one of the strongest suitors for his services. I must admit, I was shocked when I first heard this little tidbit making the rounds. For one thing, the Brewers' farm system has taken a pretty significant hit the past couple of seasons, with a ton of players graduating to the majors, and several others being moved in deals to help shore up some of the big club's weaknesses. For another, the Brewers already have a ton of money tied up in their rotation, with Ben Sheets and Jeff Suppan both having big, expensive deals. Of course, I thought that before I found out that Ben Sheets has apparently already indicated that he'll opt out of his current deal at the end of the season, and apparently the Brewers aren't willing to commit to him on a longer term basis. (There's an interesting discussion about that topic here.) With all of that in play, Milwaukee actually seems like a fairly sensible destination for Sabathia, though I still question whether or not they would be able to get a long term deal done with him.

Of course, the rumour that concerns us the most is probably the one about the Cards' interest in Matt Holliday and Brian Fuentes. There was a great discussion about it over Future Redbirds yesterday, and the prevailing sentiment over there was mostly that the deal would cost too much to make it worthwhile. I happen to agree with that notion, but I won't go into all the details here as to why. I'm just here to report the facts.

Besides our own Redbirds, the Red Sox and Yankees both appear to be suitors for Fuentes' services. The Sawx are certainly in a great position to make a play for the lefty, with a farm system that could easily take the hit. The Yankee system is a little less robust, but Steinbrenner appears to be pretty much hell bent on doing whatever it takes to build the team he wants, regardless of the cost or the wisdom. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

Randy Wolf is an intriguing name, given just how astoundingly awful the Padres have been this season. Strangely enough, though, not a whole lot of teams have been linked to Wolf. The Cubbies appear to at least be somewhat interested, but I'm a little fuzzy on just what they might have to offer.

Even though they're in contention, the Athletics have a couple of players that seem to definitely be on the market. Rich Harden is a name that gets thrown around constantly, pretty much any time trades are the subject. He's as dominant as Sabathia when healthy; unfortunately, that's not really all that often. I'm sure it would take a ridiculous offer in order to pry Billy Beane's fingers off of Harden, but some team in contention could very well make that knockout offer to bring in this level of talent.

Mark Ellis, the A's second baseman, could make an attractive target as well, particularly to someone like the Cardinals. Ellis is relatively young, relatively cheap, and also just happens to be quite a ballplayer. Given those qualities, Ellis would also probably draw a pretty serious package, but he might be just what the doctor ordered. I heard a bit about the Mets or the Indians possibly being interested, but it was just a tiny little blurb somewhere, and I cannot for the life of me find it now.

The Blue Jays are trying like hell to unload A.J. Burnett, their $55 million problem child. He's also planning to opt out of his contract after this season, so he would be strictly a rental most likely. The Brewers, Phillies, Mets, and A's have all reportedly kicked the tires at least, and the Cubs have been rumoured to be interested, although there are quite a few conflicting stories on that front.

Vincente Padilla is being looked at by the Mets and Yankees. No thanks.

The A's are apparently looking at Adrian Beltre, from the Mariners. This one doesn't make much sense at all to me, I have to say. Beltre hasn't had a really good season since his contract year, he's owed $12 million next season, and the A's have a pretty good third baseman already, as far as I know. Actually, I take that back. I just checked Eric Chavez's page; he's been awful this year. I hadn't been paying that much attention to the A's this year, to be honest. Does anybody know what in the world has happened to Chavez?

I've got to run, everybody. Discuss amongst yourselves. I'll have a game thread up this evening.

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Chavez has had too many injuries

Shoulder is keeping him from playing 3B at the moment.

"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA

by joker24 on Jul 2, 2008 10:40 AM EDT   0 recs

ellis

has openly expressed his desire to remain in oakland, even to the point of starting up below-market extension negotiations in-season. with that in mind i seriously doubt he’ll be traded.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on Jul 2, 2008 10:41 AM EDT   0 recs

I don't understand why STL would be interested.....

Chances are, Oak wouldn’t take back a guy like Kennedy. And with Miles hitting the ball well, and Kennedy being better of late, and Ryan who “could” share time there once Iz comes back, it just doesn’t seem to make sense to me.

Of course, during the offseason I’d be all for trying to sure up the 2B position, but like I mentioned above, that is likely going to involve dealing a guy like AK, or not tendering Miles/Iz.

by SoonerfanTU on Jul 2, 2008 10:50 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't think Ellis is going anywhere

Just last week I read that Ellis was involved with the A’s in negotiations over an extension. This would seem to reflect a sentiment on both sides that Ellis playing in Oakland is in their plans.

by bgh on Jul 2, 2008 10:52 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

+1

And Ellis has said several times that he likes Oakland so much he wants to resign, possibly under market value.

Free Colby

by Oregonian Redbird on Jul 2, 2008 11:16 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

whoops

Just saw moboiler’s comment, so apparently mine was a repeat.

Free Colby

by Oregonian Redbird on Jul 2, 2008 11:18 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Chavez has had injury trouble-for quite some time now.

I also read that Mark Ellis would like to stay in Oakland and Oakland would like to keep him. His agent/A’s have been in talks. The Brewers have a boatload of talent on their Huntsville AA team-Gamel and LaPorta to name two. They could also give up a player or two from their ML team and not really miss them. If they are not signing Sheets, they certainly could go big on an offer to Sabathia. Makes sense to me…...

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Jul 2, 2008 10:43 AM EDT   0 recs

Wolf

Do we really need another SP like this? I’m assuming we don’t have any further SP breakdowns, but don’t we seem pretty set with Waino, Lohse, Wellemeyer, Looper, and JP? I don’t see Wolf being an improvement over 3-4 of those guys.

IF STL is in the market for a SP, I’d hope it was a 1-2 type guy, and preferably somebody we could keep around for more than a couple of months. Otherwise, ride with what we’ve got, maybe try to pick up a bat, and let’s look forward to next season.

by SoonerfanTU on Jul 2, 2008 10:53 AM EDT   0 recs

change "will" to "are"

They already do have four #4.

They may have more starting pitchers in the bullpen and former bullpen pitchers who are now starters then any team I can remember.

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Jul 2, 2008 11:11 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That is your opinion.....

I don’t happen to agree with it. I’d say Welly and Lohse have both thrown like 3’s, at least.

Waino is a 1-2.

What is Wolf, a 3? He certainly isn’t a 1 or a 2, right now.

by SoonerfanTU on Jul 2, 2008 11:14 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

but waino is hurt

and welley hasn’t been healthy for a month and is stil rusty - or maybe still injured.

and it doesn’t look as if carpenter will be riding to the rescue in august . . . . this team needs another starter. maybe they’re best served to promote garcia or todd rather than trading for somebody, but i wouldn’t count on the current group for another 80 games

by lboros on Jul 2, 2008 11:26 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Unless we're overlooking something

It looks like promoting Garcia would be the best thing to do…

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 2, 2008 11:56 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I would like to take a flyer on someone like Maddux or Wolf

who could give us some innings and wouldn’t cost so much to acquire. Our lineup and defense are more than strong enough to prop up an unspectacular pitching staff.

by JI on Jul 2, 2008 1:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I like Maddux

Because it shouldn’t cost much, he is consistently good, and what a bonus it would be to see him beat the Cubs pitching as a Cardinal. That’s like Edmonds beating the Cardinals with a walkoff home run (knock on wood).

by rthorat on Jul 2, 2008 1:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Two problems

1. He would be more likely to join the Cubs.
2. He has said he doesn’t want to leave San Diego, and has a no-trade clause, IIRC.

by Red in Chicago on Jul 2, 2008 2:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Seriously.....

Didn’t we win a WS with Suppan as our 3rd starter? Is Lohse not that good?

Welly will be fine, just needs a short break. Waino is back soon too.

I just don’t think Wolf adds anything that Mulder, Reyes, or Boggs can add.

I guess if we could get him dirt cheap, I wouldn’t hate the idea, but I wouldn’t want to give up any of our top, lets say, 6-7 prospects in a deal for him.

by SoonerfanTU on Jul 2, 2008 12:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

+1

"Why does he keep saying that?"

by Red Blazer on Jul 2, 2008 2:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

In '04/'05???

He most definitely was.

"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA

by joker24 on Jul 2, 2008 12:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Now we are arguing semantics

did we have 4 number 4 starters based on their numbers or their prestige? Because in 2004, Jason Marquis had an ERA+ of 115, in 2005 Mark Mulder (115), Jeff Suppan (119). In the National League, both were in the Top 25, which..I would think, would not make them #4 starters.

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 2, 2008 1:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

ERA+ is a bad way to evaluate pitchers

look at the hits, walks, and strikeouts.

by JI on Jul 2, 2008 2:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

lol

ERA is a bad way, ERA+ is adjusted to include the things you list and much more to be reflective of performance

by FunkeeC on Jul 2, 2008 2:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

ERA+ uses ERA

therfore it is bad.

by JI on Jul 2, 2008 2:58 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Counting hits

probably worse.

by liam on Jul 2, 2008 3:07 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

In your ideal situation

you would create some metric that is WHiP+K plus?

ERA+ is not a bad way to evaluate pitchers on face value. In fact, it equalizes all pitchers in the league and is one of the more fair ways to look at them.

Either way, this whole argument has been based on semantics. What is ‘four #4 starters’? Is it the production value? No, because in 2004/2005, we had atleast 2, maybe 4 pitchers perform above #4 pitcher status. Is it name recognition? No, because in 2005 we had 3 ‘name’ pitchers in Carpenter, Mulder and Morris.

This year, yes, we’ve got a hodge podge bunch of starters. But saying we had the same situation in 2004 and 2005 doesn’t jive. Especially when the #1 was one of the Top 3 pitchers in the league.

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 2, 2008 3:40 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

there is no "proper context"

the arguments against ERA are that it is less predictive than other stats like FIP because it takes into account events (IE, hits) that are outside of the pitchers control and/or random. You can’t say ERA is bad and then say counting hits is useful, because it’s the fact that the pitcher relies on defense to turn balls in play into outs (IE hits) that makes ERA bad to begin with.

"If thats bad luck, lets DFA our luck away." -DriverZN

by SleepyCA on Jul 2, 2008 4:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

And I hate HATE this argument anyway

in the context of a team that actually has a pretty spectacular defense, which is the common thread between the current team and the 04/05 squad. We shouldn’t be looking for guys with low FIP. What we should be looking for is guys who have been slaughtered by butcher defenses behind them. These are the ones that will look good for us and will come cheaply.

A dude who strikes everyone out is worth far more to a team with a crappy defense than they are to us. Why pay for production that you can get out of our defense just as easily as you can get it out of the pitcher? Just give me someone who can keep the ball in the park and who isn’t completely overmatched, and move the remaining resources into the offense.

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Jul 2, 2008 5:21 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Jamie Moyer

or one of the Pirates’ many southpaws?

I wouldn’t mind buying low on Ian Snell’s pretty nicely structured contract.

by liam on Jul 2, 2008 5:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, Snell seems like a decent idea

I doubt Moyer would cost much. I still like the idea of Maddux if they can convince him to waive the no trade. But from a cost/benefit standpoint, I don’t really see the point in saying that everyone but these high K, 2.5 FIP guys sucks, especially when you’re talking about this team

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Jul 2, 2008 6:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Snell is hurt

and it took him sucking something awful to figure that out.

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 2, 2008 6:07 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Supposed to be back next Tuesday

And we’ve had such great success with pitchers coming back from sore elbows.

by liam on Jul 2, 2008 6:12 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I haven't seen it posted

But Wolf has AWEFUL home/road splits. He plays in the the ultimate pitchers park and would be a bad addition in mu opinion.

I find that interesting after yesterday’s discussion on Holliday. At least Holliday is an All-star.

by CardFaninTTown on Jul 2, 2008 5:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

New Busch is pretty pitcher-friendly, too

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Jul 2, 2008 5:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

From what I've seen/heard

it’s sorta a combination of a pitcher’s park for pitchers but neutral for decent to good hitters. If that makes any sense, I’ll try to explain. As far as hitters, it doesn’t seem to effect the true hitters in the game. The walls aren’t ridicluously deep or tall, and theres not a whole hell of a lot of foul territory. Good hitters in the game don’t seem to be affected by Busch too much. Not sure how that makes sense….

by Tackle Box on Jul 2, 2008 5:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, I think that does make sense

But it does have supress HR a bit, even for good hitters. But that might be masked by just having HR become 2B or something. Troy Glaus is certainly seeming to nod his head in agreement over there.

But I don’t think Wolf will be particularly exposed here, regardless.

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Jul 2, 2008 5:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah

I guess my “observation” more affects the “acquisition” of hitters as opposed to pitchers.

by Tackle Box on Jul 2, 2008 6:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That's because of the thick air

floating up from the Mississippi…or the Post-Dispatch offices down the street.

by Red in Chicago on Jul 2, 2008 6:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Why couldn't Wellemeyer go on the DL now?

He’d be back just after the ASB and Mulder/Thompson/Reyes could take his next two starts.

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 2, 2008 10:54 AM EDT   0 recs

Is Reyes activated from the DL?

(Please forgive my ignorance.)

by bgh on Jul 2, 2008 10:54 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No

but he could be. His time would be up before Wellemeyer’s next start.

With the ASB, Wellemeyer would only miss 2 starts.

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 2, 2008 10:58 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Sounds like a viable option to me

A dull Wellemeyer, unable to get his offspeed stuff across for strikes, does not give the club a better chance at winning that the trio you list, IMO.

by bgh on Jul 2, 2008 11:02 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I would be in favor of giving Mulder a start

and giving Wellemeyer a week off. Maybe you could time it so his start falls on the ASG break and give him two weeks off.

by Red in Chicago on Jul 2, 2008 11:04 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Memphis paper says he's scheduled to start there tonight.

Just forget about him. He’s not even really a Cardinal anymore. They never even bothered to issue a press release about his re-hab assignment.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Jul 2, 2008 11:04 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Is it really a rehab assignment.....

When he’ll likely stay in AAA regardless?

by SoonerfanTU on Jul 2, 2008 11:15 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't know

You know everything. Why don’t you tell me.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Jul 2, 2008 11:17 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'd say no.

Sorry your boy didn’t get a press release. Hopefully he’s handling it better than you are.

by SoonerfanTU on Jul 2, 2008 11:27 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Calm down, everyone

Reyes is the Cardinals’ “boy.” I believe that makes him every Cardinal fan’s “boy” and worthy of our rooting for him. Especially since his succeeding only helps the St. Louis Cardinals, whether it drives up his value in a trade or allows him to effectively fill a rotation slot. Here’s hoping for Reyes’s continued success in Memphis.

by bgh on Jul 2, 2008 12:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I thought

the cards killed him 14 months ago. {/sarcasm]

He’ll be back when he’s needed. Just like Wonderbrad. I don’t agree with how either has been treated, and respect the hell out of both of them for being professionals about it, but right now both of them are really nothing but organizational plug-ins, getting in where they fit in.

Which, compared to what most are doing when they’re 25/27 years old, sounds like an impossibly great way of life.

Well who the hell can see forever?

by Alxfritz on Jul 2, 2008 12:02 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I doubt they're the only players that get that treatment

It’s the realities of playing in the majors sometimes.

by saladdays on Jul 2, 2008 12:05 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

About the Cards-Rockies rumor...

Is there any chance we can get Kip Wells back in that deal too??? I would hope that he would reduce the price we would have to pay…

Would the Rockies be interested in any deal that did not include Garcia or Rasmus? Can we send quantity in lieu of quality (Duncan, Reyes, Anderson, Jay, Craig, Walters, Parisi)?

by Jumsy on Jul 2, 2008 11:07 AM EDT   0 recs

I brought up Joe Beimel

Sunday and no one bit on the discussion. I think the Dodgers will hang around in the West and probably won’t end up being sellers, but if they do, Beimel could be a good acquisition. He’s a free agent at the end of the year so he won’t cost much. He’s only given up 1 homer in his last 111 innings or something. Good GB rate, good BB rate, and good K rate. Even if we don’t trade for him, he could be a good FA acquisition this winter.

by houstoncardinal on Jul 2, 2008 11:08 AM EDT   0 recs

I agree he'd be a great target

but, against all reason, the D-backs haven’t been able to put any distance between themselves and .500 ball (and, consequently, the rest of the NL West). I don’t see them becoming sellers.

by punditmoi on Jul 2, 2008 11:12 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree

w/ the Rocks and Pads playing horribly and the Giants just being bad, the Dodgers almost have to remain viable in case something freakish happens to the D-backs. You never see an entire division abandon a pretty good, but not truly outstanding, team.

by houstoncardinal on Jul 2, 2008 11:20 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I like Beimel too......

He’s sort of quietly been having a nice run as a reliever. He probably wouldn’t cost much-except the Dodgers really like him and might just try to re sign him. A viable option that would cost less than the bigger names and give you just about as much….My guess is they keep him for the season.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Jul 2, 2008 11:13 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The A's bewilder me...

It seems like they are always dumping players, yet they remain competative, for the most part…I don’t know if there is another team that plays the “sell high” game as well as they do…they did that with Haren and now, you get the feeling that sooner or later, Harden will head out the door, and Billy Beane will have stolen some other team’s blue chip prospects…Amazing.

by tbell61 on Jul 2, 2008 11:22 AM EDT   0 recs

one of the things is

that Billy Beane just doesn’t give a shit what anyone thinks. That’s a tremendous quality to have in a GM. Imagine if Walt had sold off Mulder and Hudson for prospects when they were winning the way they were and then did the same w/ Haren a couple of years later. Imagine letting Tejada, Giambi, Izzy, and Johnny Damon all become free agents w/o trading them at the trade deadline or making any real attempt to resign him. Cards fans, and any others, along w/ the media would raise holy hell. They would go berserk! There’d be calls to fire him; the media would be all over him as an imbecile. There’s too much public pressure to do anything that ballsy! Beane just doesn’t give a damn. He does what he knows to be right and to hell w/ the consequences. He’s not always right, but he is more often than not.

by houstoncardinal on Jul 2, 2008 11:27 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

good post

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 2, 2008 12:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

“He’s not always right, but he is more often than not”

The reason why is because he tends to trade with a short term future view instead of a long term view, or a “now” philosophy. You’re going to win more there, because you dodge the age and peak concerns a lot more than not.

It’s no different than what most successful day traders are doing on the stock market. If you buy into a stock that is already at its peak, you can have more confidence that the stock will be lower in value when you’re ready to release it. It may plateau for a while, it may even go up. Odds are against you. Walt was for the most part a buy high, sell low kinda guy. Billy is a buy low, sell high.

He picks “stocks” that all trend around low risk, high ceiling. When they fail, you don’t see them because its nothing outlandish so all of the wins are what’s seen.

I have no issue on the Cards locking up and having deals with nonpeak players to cornerstone for the fan base, we’ve always had cornerstone players, then add ins.

Sadly, though a lot of the “cornerstone” players we’ve signed recently (21st century) have been at their peak, so we get to witness the true fall and a substantial risk. Thus being handcuffed into the financial and prospect strain that we’ve witnessed the past few years.

I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang

by AdjustedExpectations on Jul 2, 2008 1:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs