kyle and jarrod
by lboros on Jul 15, 2008 9:19 AM EDT
Email
Printprogramming notes: first of all, there will be a game thread tonight for the ASG. second item: i'll be on vacation next week. thanks to HC and Valatan, who've agreed to sit in for me.
suppose kyle lohse was willing to settle for a 3-year deal to stay in st louis --- what would be a fair price to keep him around?
this is a purely hypothetical exercise; i have no idea if lohse would settle for 3 years or not. i do know the cardinals are unlikely to offer more than 3 years --- unless i’m mistaken, the only pitchers they’ve offered 4 or more guaranteed years to in recent years are carpenter, wainwright, and aj burnett. they also probably offered mike hampton more years than that back in 2000 (and good thing he didn’t take it). . . . . i also know that lohse is very happy in st louis and, after last year’s off-season in purgatory, not enthusiastic about trying to max out his earnings on the free-agent market. if the cardinals make a fair offer, he might very well take it even if it means leaving money on the table. and yes, i know lohse’s agent is scott boras, who never leaves money on the table. after last season --- and after a rough winter for boras, which included a very humiliating calling-out by alex rodriguez --- boras ain’t quite as scary as he used to be. if the cardinals want lohse to stay, and he wants to stay too, boras can’t force him into free agency. i realize that’s what happened w/ jeff weaver after 2006; it doesn’t necessarily follow that it will happen that way w/ lohse after 2008.
hopefully most of you are still down w/ the premise: if the team and the player agree that 3 years is an acceptable length, then what’s the pitcher worth?
we gotta start w/ the cards’ payroll situation, which we were discussing yesterday in the context of a possible jarrod washburn acquisition. st louis already has $25m tied up for 2009 in 3 starting pitchers --- carpenter ($14m), pineiro ($8m), and wainwright ($2.6m). they’ll have cost-controlled internal options available to fill out the rotation in wellemeyer (arb eligible next year i think), mcclellan, boggs, garcia, mortensen, todd, and parisi. anthony reyes will probably be gone. if wellemeyer is sound, that looks like plenty of material with which to assemble a pretty decent rotation, with the potential to be very good ---- and it’s already paid for. so if the cards decide not to allocate their dollars to lohse, they won’t necessarily leave themselves exposed in the rotation. but here’s the other side of the argument: all three of the top 3 men in that projected rotation (carp welley wainwright) have some injury issues, while lohse has a clean health record. and you can never have too much pitching . . . . .
let’s look at the rest of the team. they probably won’t (and shouldn’t) be signing any high-priced outfielders; ankiel / ludwick / rasmus project as the starting trio, and schumaker / mather / barton / duncan provide plenty of fodder for the bench. no need to spend a lot of money there. they’ll be spending more money naturally anyway --- ankiel and luddy will both be arb eligible and will get substantial raises (probably into the $5m range), while molina’s salary will double to $3.3m next season. they’re set at the infield corners and at catcher; the only need is at middle infield, and they’ll probably only make one high-priced expenditure there (if any). as for the bullpen: if mcclellan moves to the rotation, the only known holdovers in the ’pen will be perez franklin and brad thompson; izzy seems unlikely to be back, springer might retire, and the left-handers . . . well, who needs ’em? they have plenty of rhrp candidates in the high minors (motte, salas, worrell, jess todd, parisi, possibly boggs) but no left-handers; they might need to spend a few million to sign one.
so a quick n dirty roster matrix, lising only the guys already under control for next year:
| ROTATION | carp, wagonmaker, pineiro, welley, +1 promotion from memphis | $26m |
| LINEUP | ludwick, ankiel, rasmus, pujols, glaus, kennedy, ryan, molina | $45m or so |
| BULLPEN | franklin, perez, thompson, and internal promotions | $3.5m commited so far |
| BENCH | ryan, plus 2 of duncan / schu / barton / mather | $1.5m |
| COMMITTED | $76m | |
| NEEDS | starting 2b or ss, lh reliever(s), backup c and if | $15m - $20m (est) |
ok; this leaves us with a payroll of $90 to $95m, which leaves the cards somewhere around $10m below their self-imposed ceiling. that’s the amount they can afford to throw at kyle lohse (or some other pitcher) without leaving themselves short in other areas of the roster --- ie, without skimping on a starting ss or an lhrp. when discussing washburn yesterday, i had blanched at the idea of committing $10m to another starting pitcher, because i thought it would tie up too much in the rotation and leave the team short elsewhere on the roster; having looked at it more carefully, i now think a $10m pitcher is an affordable luxury.
is lohse worth it? well, let’s put it this way: if jeff suppan and carlos silva and gil meche and jarrod washburn are worth $10m a year --- and i am not necessarily agreeing they are worth that money, but that’s what the market valued them at --- then lohse most definitely is worth it. his performance this year is not a mirage --- his FIP (3.67) is very close to his ERA (3.39), a strong indicator that he hasn’t just been getting lucky. in fact, lohse’s FIPs (see his fangraphs page) have been very consistent throughout his career, and consistently decent --- almost always in the 4.50 range. compare his FIPs to suppan’s --- very similar. lohse has a slightly lower home-run rate than usual this year, because he’s pitching in a pitcher’s park instead of in a bandbox, and his BABIP is down just a tick, because he has a great defense behind him; on the whole, though, i think his performance is largely sustainable. indeed, he has sustained it since coming to the national league in august 2006. in that 2-year span, lohse has a suppanish 23-19 / 4.22 mark --- the 14th-best era among nl pitchers over that period. he’s been almost exactly as good as suppan over that span (supps is 21-20, 4.28) and about as good as guys like aaron harang (24-21, 4.07) and brad penny (27-17, 4.23) --- although both of the latter, it should be noted, play in front of much weaker defenses than lohse currently does. given his age (he turns 30 in december), his spotless health record, and the consistency of his FIPs (which --- say it with me, people --- are highly predictive of future performance), lohse is a very good bet to pitch 190 innings for each of the next 3 years with eras in the 4.00 range.
is that worth $10m a year? on a one-year deal, it’s definitely worth it; on a 3-year deal, i don’t think it’s worth it to the cardinals. let me repeat the last 3 words --- to the cardinals. it might make sense for some other franchise to make that investment, and for lohse’s sake i hope somebody gives it to him. but i don’t think the cardinals need the pitching that badly, particularly in years 2 and 3 of the hypothesized contract. by then the cards are almost certain to have one or more pitchers available internally (read: very cheaply) who are at least as good as lohse --- not potentially as good, but actually as good. that pitcher or pitchers won’t necessarily be ready in 2009, although they might be; but by 2010, i’m confident that one or more youngsters from that group i listed above (garcia, mortensen, et al) will have stepped forward and gotten himself established as a reliable big-league starter --- much as wainwright did in 2006-07. in which case, spending $10m on kyle lohse for those years would be a waste of money. if he'd give a deep discount --- say, 3 years at $8.5m per --- i would be more interested, because then lohse would more likely be an appealing trade commodity if the cards wound up w/ a surplus. another possibility would be to offer $10m per year, but front-load the deal --- offer him $13m for 2009 and $8.5m each for 2010-11; the avg annual salary is $10m, but the cards preserve payroll flexibility / tradeability.
that’s my opinion; yours may differ. discuss below.
now, let me cycle back around to jarrod washburn. the more i think about this guy, the more i like the idea of picking him up. the first thing to like about it is that, reportedly, the mariners aren’t asking for much in return; they just want a team to pick up his salary, which is about $4m for the balance of 2008 and $10m in 2009. as i said above, i now believe the cards can afford a $10m pitcher next season --- and the obligation to washburn would end after 2009, when the cards’ farm system is ready to produce solid replacements. unlike the make-believe 3-year commitment to lohse, this one is of an acceptable length, and --- better yet --- it makes the team better this year, when they’re fighting for a playoff spot. if the cards can acquire him without losing any prospects who matter, it is almost the equivalent of getting a free-agent signing midseason --- it would cost the team money but not talent. and the opportunity cost wouldn’t be particularly high, either --- ie, it probably wouldn’t block a deserving youngster from promotion.
is jarrod washburn a good pitcher? a lot of you think he sucks, but i refer you again to his FIPs --- mirror images of lohse’s and suppan’s. but he has compiled them in the dh league, which means he’s actually been slightly better than those two. for those of you who don’t really like FIP, check out washburn’s actual era’s --- again, very consistent. once you adjust for the dh, he’s been the nl-equivalent of a low-4.00s pitcher for 6 years in a row. and that includes this season, in which his numbers have been distorted by terrible defense. in his career, washburn has given up a .220 batting average on groundballs, which is right around average. but this year, batters are hitting .273 against him on grounders --- that’s a freaky stat and not likely to continue. and a good cardinal infield is likely to turn some of those groundball base hits into outs. if we apply washburn’s career average on grounders (.220) to his current-year line, he yields 7 fewer base hits, which translates to 5 fewer runs --- and an era of 4.40, rather than 4.83. again, that’s a 4.40 era in the dh league; in the nl, it’s more like 4.00 to 4.15. in other words, jeff suppan . . .
in every area that lies partly or wholly under a pitcher’s control --- k rate, bb rate, hr rate, gb rate, ld rate --- washburn is at or near his career averages; he’s not pitching worse this season than usual, he’s just getting worse results. but his results are due to improve as long as he keeps throwing the ball the same way. indeed, they are already improving. washburn had a dreadful stretch in may, which ended with a 2-inning, 9-run pounding at the hands of the tigers on may 21. but in 9 starts since then, washburn has an era of 3.02 and an opponent ops of .732. while the cardinals do have more talented pitchers in their organization --- including boggs, garcia, maybe mortensen and todd --- they don’t have more reliable pitchers than washburn; it often takes time for talent to translate into big-league performance. boggs might be better than washburn some day, but he clearly isn’t at this moment in time --- witness his upside-down k/bb ratio (12 ks, 17 bbs) in his short stint with the cards. we’ll find out soon enough how readily jaime garcia's talent translates to the big leagues. (for what it’s worth, john sickels agrees with azruavatar that garcia probably needs some more time at triple A.)
it is reasonable for the cards to give garcia a chance and see how he fares; if he does well, then maybe there’s no need to add a veteran for the stretch run. but if jaime struggles --- and if washburn can be acquired for a second- or third-tier prospect such as, let’s say, mke parisi --- then i think he’d improve the team in the short run without hamstringing them in the long run. and that’s the idea, right? get better today without messing up the plans for tomorrow.
let’s see how it plays out.
242 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I have gotten over my
dismay about crossing the $10 million barrier for average ML starters. It’s just the reality now (and it ain’t my money anyway), so, whether it’s Washburn for 1 year or Lohse for 3, I don’t care. The nice thing about a reliable #3 starter is that it allows you to trade some of those young pitchers (pitchers being the currency of MLB) for maybe a hot-shit middle infielder or another outfielder if Ank or Luddy goes down with injury, or Ank goes FA and leaves. (And I’m talking about trade possibilities over the next 3 years, not just this season, BTW.)
Speaking of hot-**** MIFs
It’ll be interesting to see how Kozma develops over the next three years. Wouldn’t it be dandy if we had our own hot-** MIF?
Even better -- how about 2 of 'em?
And BTW, be very careful with your spelling when you use “hot” and “MIF” in a comment … wouldn’t want VEB to get the wrong kind of Google hits if you know what I mean. =D
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 15, 2008 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Opinions on "learning" on the job
I would be interested to hear opinions on these young pitchers (Boggs, Parisi, Garcia, etc.) getting big league experience. My thoughts are that pitchers like these are more than likely going to take some beatings early in their career. It may take 10-15 starts for them to settle down, trust their stuff, and/or refine certain pitches before they begin to show the kind of pitchers they can be. I flashback to Dan Haren. He took some ugly beatings when he first came up. Evidently, LaRussa and Duncan didn’t see eye to eye on his potential. LaRussa didn’t have the patience to let him learn at the big leagues, while Duncan saw the potential that existed and eventually blossomed. My concern is that we are already headed down a similar path with this crop of young pitchers. Rightly or wrongly, Tony always wants to win now. Thoughts??
It will always be a battle with TLR, I think.
Ideally you would want to be in a spot where you have 3 or 4 solid veteran (i.e., at least 2nd or 3rd-year) starters, and a pipeline of good young SPs such that you could always have one of the young-uns in the #5 spot. I think TLR would be fine with that, it’s the prospect of relying on a 2nd-year guy or a rookie in the #1, 2 or 3 spot that he has a problem with.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 15, 2008 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Using the young guns as a 5th starter seems reasonable
and in ‘09 we should have a top heavy rotation loaded with veterans. Another option could be working them through the bullpen. It worked with Wainwright even though he still had a learning curve early last year as a starter. Wainwright is also a special talent that didn’t require a ton of patience. I’m wondering what they’ll do with McClellan next season. He is too valuable in the pen to be moved, in my estimation, given the struggles of everyone else.
Wainwright
i wouldn’t say he was that special of a talent. look at his minor league record. he took his lumps in AAA and learned there. unfortunately some guys can dominate AAA with stuff that will get hammered in the bigs, so if they just continue to pitch like they did before in AAA they will dominate and not learn anything.
"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon
Wainwright was a first round pick.
Those guys are expected to make it…...
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
waino
i’m not saying he wasn’t a good prospect. i’m just saying that he took his lumps in AAA and learned from them. its not like he was just flat out dominant without ever struggling like some people believe because he didn’t struggle in the bigs.
"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon
You're not wrong DJ
Before spring training 2006, Wainwright wasn’t living up to his potential by his own admission but the talent was there. Something clicked before the 2006 season but even then he was deemed to have lost an “open” competition with Ponson. He gained some valuable experience in the ‘pen and the rest is history. He’s our ace this year and I think he will be in ‘09 too even with Carpenter back.
Wainwright was...
regarded as the number 1 pitching prospect in the Braves organization when we acquired him. They said he had the stuff to be a #1 or #2 guy in the rotation.
The Braves
REALLY wanted J.D. Drew (thinking they could sign him… didn’t work), and Wainer was the price of admission. He’d never been with the big club. He Who Shall Not Be Named clashed with Mazzone (and Duncan, and apparently with Sweet Lou)... not Wainwright.
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
by The Ol Goaler on Jul 15, 2008 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Tony' concept
of an “apprenticeship” rookie year in the ‘pen for young starters has a lot of merit, to my mind. It lets a guy get acclimated to the big leagues without the pressure of starting every fifth day. You start the season by using the “rook” in low-leverage situations, and as he continues to have success, put him in higher-pressure situations as the season goes along.
Wainwright is the obvious example; he’d never been a bullpenner until ‘06; which made the MSM’s wailing about “converting” him from closer to starter in ‘07 even more ridiculous! Kyle McClellan is this year’s obvious candidate for the ‘09 rotation (unless one thinks he’s more valuable as the 8th or 9th-inning guy!)
When the Cards traded Haren, they thought they were getting one of the best starters in the American League! It didn’t work out, but just because they traded Haren didn’t mean the Cards thought he wouldn’t be good!
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
by The Ol Goaler on Jul 15, 2008 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Given that Garcia is not ready to start in the majors
But an ideal time line would project him into the 2010 rotation, I think the Cards LHRP problem is far better solved by promoting him for a 1 year apprenticeship in the pen as the lefty paired up with the best LHRP the Cards can find through free agency for less than $1 million. Such a move would allow more dollar to be allocated to the middle infield and to the starting pitching.
is tyler johnson
going to be available for opening day next year at this rate
The one year deal
is the most appealing thing about Washburn and, in that respect, it does make him more attractive than Lohse. While I do appreciate, and am surprised by the similarities between Washburn’s, Suppan’s, and Lohse’s FIPs, there is one big difference between the 3 pitchers - their respective GB rates. Suppan’s is 29th among 99 qualifying MLB starters. Lohse’s is 33rd and Washburn’s is 82nd - one of the worst in the big leagues. Combine that w/ being 73rd in his K rate and he’s just not that good.
I will agree w/ the premise that he makes the team better this year. He might make it better next year, but I’d rather try the young guys and find out. I’ll also buy the premise that he’s durable—you can count on a Suppan-like 185-190 innings out of him and, to that end, it might make the team better next year even if he doesn’t pitch better than the young guys. So, I guess you’ve convinced me that trading a Parisi-like prospect for him, even if the M’s don’t eat any money, might be a good idea. He probably adds 1.5-2 wins this year over Boggs and the rest.
However, there’s another opportunity cost w/ this acquisition. It pretty much precludes a run - either by trade this year or as an FA in the offseason should he opt out - at A.J. Burnett. Now, I’m not sure how I feel about trying to acquire him but there’s little doubt that he’s better than Washburn. He will, however, cost much more in terms of prospects. That’s a big plus in my book for Washburn. Might a trade for Burnett mean that he assumes the last 2 years of his contract and, rather than getting Washburn for 1 1/3 years, we could have Burnett for 2 1/3 years. Which is better? It depends on the cost but it’s pretty clear to me that we can’t have both.
I'm not sure I understand why Washburn at 1 year is more attractive than
Loshe at 3. Washburn is 34 in August and his fastball is losing speed. Loshe is 30 and posting the best GB rates of his career. If we’re selling durability as both of their strong suits, I’ll take Loshe for 3 years and deal some prospects for other components.
Also, re: Washburn’s GB BABIP—that may be high but his LD BABIP is about 5% low. Any gains you assume from the GB are more than canceled out by the LD. And he’s allowing more LD than ever at 23%. This looks like a pitcher on the precipice of decline to me.
washburn
i think the most important thing to look at in the lohse vs washburn debate is that adding washburn helps us this year, but signing lohse long term does nothing for this years team. since next year they will likely cost the same and probably be similar pitchers, i would rather take them both this year and have washburn for next than lock up lohse for 3. also long term commitments to pitchers scare me so the shorter the better. even at just 3 years i think pitchers are too risky health wise.
"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon
You're assuming
of course, that Washburn helps the club this year. I’m not sold that he would do that. Right now you have Wainwright on the DL expected to return on or around Aug 1st. If he does that, the rotation looks like this:
Wainwright
Lohse
Looper
Pineiro
Wellemeyer
Who is he better than in that group? Answer: Nobody. So why would they even consider doing this? What trading for Washburn does do: If he sucks, which he has for a lot of this year, he’s basically penciled in as the 4th starter next year (Loop is probably gone)—at $10 million per year (for a FOURTH STARTER!!!). He precludes the club from actually looking at the free agent market at all next year for a starting pitcher, when there looks to be some pretty good talent hitting that market after this year.
IMO, you don’t commit to 1.5 years of league averageness when you don’t know what the market (FA or trade) will look like next off season. The biggest need for this club currently and going into next season is not at starting pitcher, it’s getting a couple of middle infielders that can hit their way out of a wet paper bag.
If I had to choose, assuming that a 3Y/$30M deal would keep Lohse in the BOB, I would sign him and look to move a couple of pitching prospects for a starting SS - hoping that the Cards could then get Orlando Hudson to sign in the offseason. OR, you keep Lohse, keep McClellan in the bullpen, and audition Garcia/Boggs/Todd/FA-offseason-DaveDuncan-project for the 5th starter next year. Garcia and Boggs go into the bullpen if they don’t make the rotation, the Dunc project is released if he doesn’t, and Todd goes the AAA and is the first injury call-up. At least at this point you still have the flexibility - trading for Washburn gives you none of that, and not too many wins this season either.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Show me that
statistically he’s a better pitcher, this year, than Looper. For one, he’s not a groundball pitcher, so he doesn’t fit into the Duncan philosophy. Second, he’s got a 82 ERA+ in a pitchers park in the DH league—I don’t buy that he’s going to improve to better than the 99 ERA+ that Looper has when switching to a smaller ballpark in the national league. I think these things nearly cancel themselves out, and Looper gets a higher GB%, and has a 17 point advantage in ERA+, and he’s not signed for $10 million next year.
Besides that, do you think that Looper goes to the pen if we acquire him? I highly doubt that. It’s going to be Pineiro more than likely—which really doesn’t make any sense either, since he’s already signed for next season.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Saying that
players play in a pitcher’s park and then citing a park-adjusted stat is redundant. Anyway, I don’t want any part of Wasburn, but he has been better this year than Looper. He has a pretty solid FIP, as mentioned in the original post.
It’s easily to underestimate how awful the defense is behind Washburn in Seattle but it’s really bad. Given our outfield defense, it’s not a big deal that he’s a flyball pitcher since our outfield is quite solid. Looper is already benefiting from that and at best he’s Washburn’s equal. Seattle may have 2 above average defender on their entire field this year (Beltre, Ichiro) and then a bunch of below average or really awful guys. Outside of Duncan in LF the Cardinals feature average or better defenders at every position.
I’m sure you’re looking at Looper’s ERA for this season which is fortunate since he recently went on a nice little run. But last season, without adjustments, he was marginally worse than Washburn. There’s a real argument that Washburn is about a win better than Looper.
one win?
one win is worth having him on the roster next season at 10 million?
Looper is already benefiting from that and at best he’s Washburn’s equal
If at his best he’s Washburn’s equal (and he’s been good this year), and he’s a free agent after the season, it doesn’t stand to reason to trade for a guy you very nearly already have talent wise. Nor did you address my point about whether Looper is the one that goes to the pen if that deal is made—I highly doubt that he does.
You, az, have been talking about the bright future and the roster flexibility of 2009, and all this deal does is lessen the flexibility and keep the club mired in mediocre, aging pitchers for another year, at $10 millon no less.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
never argued for the deal
just noting that Washburn is better than Looper. As far as whether Looper is the one who’ll wind up in the pen—beats me. I can’t make heads or tails of management’s decisions as of late.
while this is hearsay
the USSM guys routinely note how bad he’s gotten defensively over the last few seasons going from an above average defender to a below average one rather quickly. I can’t vouch for much beyond that but I respect their opinions.
this assumes
that Wellemeyer makes it through the year or that Carpenter is able to join the rotation to replace him. Either of those is iffy at this point. It also assumes that Pineiro and Wainwright remain healthy for the rest of the season. The idea is that Washburn is better than Boggs/Garcia/Parisi this season.
If your premise is correct - that those 5 remain our starters for the rest of the season - then, you’re right: I don’t want Washburn’s obligation next year either. But that’s a pretty big assumption to begin with.
Your assumption is correct...
if Wellemeyer doesn’t make it through the season, then Washburn becomes the guy to fill as the 5th starter right? How many starts is the fifth starter really going to get in the remaining games this season. I could figure it out probably, but I don’t have enough time today to pore over the schedule. Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that it’s 8-10 starts. Does having him over Boggs/Garcia/Parisi really represent an advantage over making a trade for, say, Rhodes, who helps to shore up the bullpen from the left side and doesn’t cost us anything next year?
In other words, is this trade is the absolute best +/- effect for this team? I don’t think Washburn provides a marginally better starter than those guys—while Rhodes provides a much better option than either Flores brother in the bullpen.
You guys are looking at this as viable because it doesn’t cost the Cardinals that much to get him, so why not roll the dice. I think adding $10 million to next years payroll for a guy that may not be marginally better than the current pitchers on the roster and destroying all flexibility in the salary structure for next year is NOT worth the marginal improvement, if any, for this year.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
assumption
you are assuming that Washburn continue to pitch here as he has in Seattle and be a bad pitcher. The argument is that he would be a better pitcher here b/c of the better defense and being in the NL. Therefore, he would be a better pitcher than Looper and Piniero likely and would not be our “5th Starter.”
Also adding the $10 million would not totally destroy the flexibility for next year. Lboros has shown in the post that they would still have enough money to get a 2nd baseman or SS and a lefty reliever.
"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon
But...
not another starting pitcher if he stinks out the joint—and he might do just that. Regardless of what his peripherals look like, bringing him to St. Louis does not just magically make him a better pitcher. Even if he’s better than he’s been in Seattle, he’s still barely better than what the Cards have, and he’s more expensive next year than everyone else, just by the virtue of having a contract at all over Looper, and being more expensive than Piniero who we have already next year anyway. Is he really $3 million better than either of those guys? I say no. If we’re going to pay somone that kind of money carrying over to next year I’d prefer to pay someone who has a chance that his upside is better than league average.
He’s coming here and he’ll take the spot in the rotation of whoever is going to the pen. If it’s Looper, which I doubt, then he’s the 4th starter, and if it’s Piniero (more likely) than he fits into the fifth slot. Or he’s Wellemeyer insurance and is the #3 behind WW and Lohse. Does moving Piniero or Looper to the pen make us a better team? We have plenty of guys like that out there, and Piniero hasn’t been effective as a reliever in his career.
Adding a lefty in the pen for this year makes this team a whole lot better immediately as the bullpen is our weakest link at the moment. Leaving the opportunity open fiscally for the offseason allows us more money to look at upgrading the bullpen and middle infield instead of committing the money to someone who may not be much better than someone who’s cheaper next year. If you trade for Washburn, you’re effectively telling Lohse he’s gone after the season, or telling Tony that no middle infield help is on the way either, because the team can’t afford both, much less all three.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
al average on LDs is .725
and washburn is yielding an average of .707 — his luck on line drives is only worth 1 base hit.
per fangraphs, his FB velocity is steady w/ last year at 87.5 mph, although it is down from 2005-06 when it averaged 88.5. you are right, however, that hitters are killing his FB - per josh kalk’s pitch FX tool, they are hitting almost .400 when they put the FB in play and slugging about .600. if we factored in strikeouts (which the Fx tool doesn’t do) the averages wouldn’t be quite as alarming, but it’s pretty clear the FB isn’t an effective pitch for him anymore. slider appears to be his best pitch.
link the the FX tool - http://baseball.bornbybits.com/php/2008_tool.php?pit=132220&bat=0&type=-1&result=-1&count=-1&r_spd=1&spd=-1&r_brx=1&brx=-100&r_brz=1&brz=-100&l_b=0
his BR numbers show
a career BABIP on LD of .732 and 2008 BABIP of .693—are we looking at different numbers?
we must be
when i check BR, it shows him at a .707 BABIP on line drives in 2008
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=washbja01&year=2008
ok, i've figured it out
you’re talking about BABIP — ie, not counting the 1 homer that washburn has yielded on a line drive this year - and i’m talking about plain old BA. that explains the discrepancy.
it’s such a small discrepancy (ie, 1 hit) it doesn’t seem worth haggling over. a more pertinent question is — is washburn’s high LD rate this year a random event, or is it evidence that he’s breaking down? i tend to interpret it as just random — there’s no other evidence (lower k rate, higher HR rate) to suggest that hitters are getting better looks off him this year than in the past. but if i’m wrong, then washburn could be a bust. i’d still take my chances
AZ, sorry to keep replying to myself
but if we’re talking about guys getting lucky on line drives, lohse is the lucky one this year. his batting avg allowed on line drives is just .633 —80 points below the league avg -- and his BABIP on line drives is just .625. with a normal BABIP on line drives, he’d be 7 hits / 5 runs worse, raising his ERA to 3.77.
i don’t dispute that lohse is a better pitcher than washburn. but i think they’re a lot closer in ability than the surface stats suggest. to me the difference in their abilities is not worth 2 years / $20 million . . . .
lohse has also been pretty lucky on HR's
roughly 5% HR/FB rate vs NL average of about 9.3%, while washburn (7.8%) has been right at the league average (8.2%).
"If thats bad luck, lets DFA our luck away." -DriverZN
FYI my HR/FB number look different from fangraphs
I used the batted ball split data from B-R, which seems to be different from Fangraphs- fangraphs says he’s had 127 FB’s hit against him, while B-R says 115 or 118 (not sure how you can have a batted ball PA without it being a batted ball AB?)
Strangeness. Maybe B-R doesn’t count foul pop-outs, or IFFB’s? 127- (6 IFFB’s) – (6 HR’s) makes 115?
"If thats bad luck, lets DFA our luck away." -DriverZN
duh
of course ;)
Unfortunately the question is still how to account for the discrepancy between B-R’s 118 and Fangraph’s 127.
"If thats bad luck, lets DFA our luck away." -DriverZN
It's probably a
STATS / Retrosheet classification thing. Looks like some Retrosheet (BRef) has him with six more liners.
I'm not arguing that there's a huge disparity in skill sets.
I’d hope Lohse would take around a 30M dollar deal. I do think there’s a lot more margin for deterioration in Lohse’s skillset than Washburn’s.
Piggyback
Despite LB’s well thought out and informed advocacy of Washburn as a band-aid type of acquisition, I’m still not too excited about such a maneuver. Add to this, a hypothetical either/or proposition between the 34-year old Washburn and 30-year old Lohse, and I’m really unethused. It’s a tricky tightrope to walk, because Washburn is probably a better fifth option for the remainder of this year than our current choices, but he is likely not the better option next season. In addition, Washburn will come far cheaper prospect-wise than most other additions.
Acquiring Washburn essentially shows Lohse to the door come November and I’d rather have Lohse slotted into the rotation next year (and the next, and the next) than Washburn. Of course, this is assuming that we are able to re-sign Lohse. I believe this would hinge on how sure Mo is that Wainwright will be back in early August. If Wagonmaker joins the rotation and that, once back, the injury will not recur. If Wainwright is Wainwright through season’s end, the need for adding a Washburn-type is lessened dramatically. It’s this bet that feeds Mo’s above-mentioned priority list, IMO.
He's better than:
Piniero and Looper? That’s a total toss up, and it’s not worth the $10 million next year to find out.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I'm just not sure
I see the merit in locking up Lohse for 3 at $10M per. In 2010 and 11, as LB implies, won’t at least 1 of Todd, Garcia, Mortensen or Boggs - or probably 2 - be as good or better for the major league minimum than Lohse will be for $10M? Washburn doesn’t excite me at all but I think we’ll all agree that he makes the team a little better this year. HIs other merit is that he’d be only locked up for 1 more.
There are so few SP’s who’ll be available who are free agents after this year also. I doubt Lowe will be available. Randy Wolf is about the only one. Other guys may be available (Padilla, for example) who are locked up beyond 1 year and just aren’t at all appealing.
A.J. Burnett could be had. Would he be worth Anderson, Mather, and Boggs if he would agree not to opt out of the contract until it expires? They may not take that offer but I don’t think we’d have to offer a lot more.
I'd agree that at least one will be
But 2 might be pushing it. I like the relative security that Lohse gives us in case someone goes down like a Carpenter, Welly or Wainwright goes down. I’d put quite a bit of money that at least one of those 3 will miss some significant time during the hypothetical three years of Lohse.
I really like a rotation comprised of 3-4 proven vets with 1 or 2 up and comers. Signing Lohse to a 3 year deal gives us more security that the balance remains 3-4 vets with 1-2 newbies as well as increases our flexibility to use the rookies in the pen or as trade leverage.
Hedging our bet on The Colonel
I believe that adding a proven comodity like Lohse is not done to replace Todd, Garcia, Mortensen or Boggs; although, if they all develop into MLB-ready pitchers by 2011, then it inevitably would. If we are fortunate to have such a copious bumper crop of MLB-ready, under control youngsters, then Lohse could probably be dealt since his $10M/year hypothetical salary would likely be extemely reasonably by the 2009/10 offseason.
I view Lohse, due to his track record as a starter in terms of FIP and lack of injuries (knock on wood), as insurance for The Colonel. I’m not yet convinced that he will be a mainstay in the rotation, due to his health and his recent slide (which I suspect is due to his elbow barking).
If we could get Burnett for that bounty, I think we should do it, which would completely change the Lohse-or-Washburn next year hypo.
And this is the second year in a row Wellemeyer has
had elbow issues. I’d be very careful here…..... his performance has not been the same since-which makes me wonder if he’s really recovered completely, and if he can continue to take on a starters workload. Now and long term.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
I guess I have a great deal of trepidation
over Carpenter’s return and Wellemeyer’s continued health. That may help clarify the situation but outside of Wainwright, I don’t see a rotation stalwart over the next 3 years.
I agree
re: their health. Do you fashion Lohse as a “rotation stalwart over the next 3 years?” I see him as a nice 3rd or 4th starter. Maybe by “stalwart” you meant someone you can count on for 190 or so innings a year, rather than a #1 or #2 - the way Wellemeyer was pitching before he got hurt or what we’ve come to expect from Carp. If you mean a steady hand in the middle/back end of the rotation the way Suppan was - I’ll agree that Lohse can probably be that. However, I still think at least 1 and probably 2 of the 4 I mentioned above (assuming Ottavino or someone else doesn’t come along) can probably do that as well.
Consistency is the key
Lohse is Suppan-like in his inning-munching. He gobbles up about 190 innings per year. This while remaining healthy. As LB has stated in the thread, durability is an important undervalued trait. This is a trait that Wellemeyer has yet to demonstrate, and one that we can’t project on the transitioning youngsters. This, in my mind, makes a 3-year deal for Lohse a lesser gamble than for the average pitcher.
Pineiro
When evaluating resigning Loshe, how bad does the Pineiro 2 year deal look now? Erase Pineiro from the equation and the Cards are great shape salary wise to slide Loshe into the rotation. I wonder if we could dump Pineiro? One year contracts for starting pitchers can be a valuable thing in MLB. Very low risk. We might have to package him with a prospect to make a team bite.
Which reminds me......
if we sign Lohse now, we buy high, no?
We bought high on Piniero IMO….his salary for next year looks kind of high for what we are likely to get. I’m with you…..he might be one they should look to move.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
I think you're right, Jill
about buying high. Won’t Lohse be worth more by offering arbitration - 2 draft picks - than by signing him for 3 years?
lohse arbitration
i think this has been discussed before, but i’m not sure lohse would be a typer A or B and therefore would not get us draft picks. i think it is based off the last 3 seasons or something and lohse was terrible in 2006.
"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon
I thought only...
Type A will get you draft picks anymore.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
I think
you get 2 picks for a type A and 1 for a type B
Type A you get the team the signs the players 1st rounder (unless it is in the top 15 in which case you get their 2nd rounder) and a supplemental round pick. Type B you just get the supplemental round pick.
I think you are thinking that if you sign a type B you don’t lose any draft picks.
"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon
Kyle's a free agent after this season...
I don’t believe we can offer him arbitration; (I Could Be Wrong… if I am, someone please enlighten me!)
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
by The Ol Goaler on Jul 15, 2008 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
why not?
he’s been w/ us…we can offer him arbitration unless, upon signing him, we agreed not to. I doubt we did that.
I am assuming that
and, you’re right, he might not be. Calculating that is very complicated and I’m not exactly sure how to do it but I’d still bet that it’s better than 50/50 that he will be. Even if he’s not, he’s still worth a supplemental pick.
He's pretty much guaranteed to be a B minus a total collapse
And with Smoltz, Zito, Penny, Lilly, Francis, Arroyo, Willis, Glavine, James, Escobar, Blanton and Schilling all getting beat to shit out of the Type A ranks, I’d bet if he pitches reasonably well post-ASB he’ll jump into the A-level.
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
don't forget
It’s a lot harder to be a Type A this year. MLB changed the cutoff in the new CBA; type “A” went from “top 30%” to “top 20%”. Also, type B is now just 21-40 instead of 26-50, meaning there will be a lot fewer guys who are even type B’s.
"If thats bad luck, lets DFA our luck away." -DriverZN
oh, that is apparently correct
I was looking at an article from baseball prospectus from nov 2007 that quoted an earlier article from jan 2007 that said:
“The definition of Type A and Type B free agents remained unchanged for 2007, but starting next winter the new CBA calls for only players in the Top 20%”...
and assumed that “winter of 2007” meant “after the 2007 season” but in re-reading it, it actually seems to mean “after the 2006 season but before the 2007 season”.
"If thats bad luck, lets DFA our luck away." -DriverZN
I still think it was a good signing
The guy has a 4.00 FIP and at least 6 of his earned runs should have been unearned, making his ERA look a lot worse than it is. He may not have been the most efficient use of resources, and his salary for next year is a bit of an albatross (but not THAT bad) but if he wasn’t in our rotation this year we’d be in real trouble right now.
"If thats bad luck, lets DFA our luck away." -DriverZN
I am still waiting for someone to offer a huge one year contract.....
I mean, why wouldn’t some team offer say a Ben Sheets 20 million for a season, with an option that kicks in ONLY if he reaches a certain number of starts and/or innings? I think baseball ought to try to get away from these long term contracts for pitchers—Heck, they just long-termed Wainwright, and almost on cue he hits the DL….
I would rather use the huge contract on an impact bat-you generally get what you pay for when you buy a bat, pitching not so much.
Washburn, ah, reminds me of white bread. Steady, unspectacular…...with a little patience, maybe we get that from the AAA arms at a fraction of the price….
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Wainwright
They long-termed him to avoid paying him escalating costs each year in arbitration. They did the same with Molina. Those type of contracts make sense for both sides—they give the player and club security in case of injury and keep them cost controlled for budgeting purposes.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I'm not complaining about Wainwright's contract......
just making the observation that he ends up on the DL shortly after it’s signed, because he did.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
What you described...
is called collusion though:
I think baseball ought to try to get away from these long term contracts for pitchers
The market sets the price and number of years for pitchers—nobody wanted Kyle Lohse at 5Y/$50M, so he signed a one year deal for a little money to prove himself, and he’s done that.
You ARE complaining about his contract, however, because you stated that baseball should give up long term deals for pitchers in the quote above. I was pointing out that WW’s contract is very low-risk, high-reward because he’s likely to pitch better than his cost if he’s healthy and if he gets hurt he doesn’t cost that much.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Disagree
Collusion would imply that they all get together and decide as a group to not offer contracts longer than 2 years or whatever. What Jill is talking about is individual owners/GM’s rethinking how they sign pitchers, and having the conviction to stay the course when other teams still shell out long-term contracts. Think gradual philosophy change, not money-grubbing bastards sticking it to the players.
As for the Wainwright contract, I think she’s just invoking the great & powerful Murphy. We had a perfectly legitimate reason to just handle Adam on a year-by-year basis through arbitration, but we chose the (correct) path of trust-building and signed him long-term. As soon as we did that, fickle Fate reared her head and sidelined him. It’s not as if Jill was saying Wagonmaker got the deal and yelled out, “SUCKERS! Now I can fake an injury and live the easy life!” There is nothing wrong with WW’s contract and if given the chance, I would do it again. I’ll bet Jill would as well.
That said, the Cubs do deserve my pity, but never my support.
How is that any different that what we have now?
What Jill is talking about is individual owners/GM’s rethinking how they sign pitchers, and having the conviction to stay the course when other teams still shell out long-term contracts.
We have this now—good front offices like Boston and Oakland are already doing this. Lohse not getting shown the money last year is a step in the right direction, although he’s proving this season that he can be worth that kind of money. In Boston’s case, they’ve got Beckett and Dice-K signed long term, a couple of kids in Lester and Buchholz, and Wakefield on a succession of 1Y/$4M deals. They have one of the best staff’s in baseball with only one big FA signing (Beckett was traded for, albeit for the best hitting SS in baseball right now….). Boston wins, and the Oakland ownership doesn’t seem to expect them to win every year, but how many other GM’s would be out of job if they kept offering contracts like those that Jill describes and keep missing out on those players because they sign for long term someplace else. I have a hard time believing that the entire market is going to shift, over time, to those type of contracts. It’s just not logical unless there are a rash of pitcher injuries to the guys making that kind of money, and then the knee-jerk reaction is to go out and get someone else and sign them to a long term deal as “insurance”.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I love when someone speaks for me!
Actually, I’m NOT meaning collusion-just wondering why you don’t give Sheets 20-25 million for one year only-maybe with the rights to negotiate a 2nd year, or innings/games kicking in next year’s option. One year of huge salary helps/hurts one year only, since pitchers get hurt all the time-front load the contract in a way. Pay for what you get.
I think Adam’s contract was fine and the right way to go. That doesn’t change the fact that he got hurt shortly after it was signed. My point is it’s a crapshoot-even with a young apparently healthy pitcher.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
If you're the player though
how does that make any sense if you can get a 4-5 year deal at $75-$90 million dollars from some other team. The team gets all the contracts insured anyway, so they’re not going to LOSE money on those deals, they just count against the luxury tax.
Ben Sheets would be downright stupid to take a one year deal worth $20 million if he could get a 6 year deal worth $100 million—that’s an $80 million difference!!!
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Plus
it’s not like you’re only going to have 1 team bidding on Ben Sheets (or any other pitcher). When teams compete for a player’s services, the offers go up. That’s the way it is and it ain’t gonna change.
Also, don’t underestimate a team like the Cubs who are willing to sacrifice long-term contracts for winning the championship THIS year. That’s essentially what they’ve done. They gave a bunch of players long-term deals with no-trade clauses simply so they could win this year. To them, it’s completely worth it to take that big of a chance.
I didn't
intend to put words in your mouth….
What I mean is that you’d have to have owners colluding to make something like that happen, like it did before the advent of the union when they could just keep renewing players on their old contracts indefinitely. Good management will exploit holes in the market efficiencies, so if everyone starterd offering only one year deals for that money, then someone would offer 4 or 5 year deals worth around $80 million or so to entice the player to sign with them.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
If I hear you right
all we have to worry about in the offseason is…...
1. Lohse yes/no
2. Bullpen: either arm that doesn’t suck or new closer (or wait for Kinney again?)
3. Middle infielder that can actually hit
A three-year deal for Lohse in St.L...
would be the best thing for Lohse, IMO. He’s got a high comfort level with Duncan, the ballpark and defense suit his skill-set, and staying with the Cardinals gives him his best chance to win! Lohse has commented all season about how the Cardinals are the best-prepared team he’s been on… surely, somebody else has their equivalent of Duncan’s charts, don’t they?
Whether such a deal (3 years, $30 million divvied up however you want) is in the best interest of the Cardinals is an entirely different question… much depends upon the health of the other starters going forward.
Count me among those who think an “impact” bat is a greater immediate need; thumping the Pirates doesn’t convince me that all is well on the offensive front. I fear it would take way too much in prospects to pry Brian Roberts from the Orioles (he can hit leadoff, and is good defensively. Matt Holliday doesn’t excite me away from Coors… who else is available?
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
Don't we all!
Without acquiring a SS or 2B this off-season, Ryan starts at SS. Iz2 is a free agent after this season. If the Cards get a 2B or SS, then Ryan becomes the utility infielder.
I expect the Cards to re-sign Miles, howls of anguish from the SABR-metric savvy regardless! ;-)
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
by The Ol Goaler on Jul 15, 2008 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
that was awesome
Chris Farley voice
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Jul 15, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
farley
I can’t see too good dad, is that Bill Shakespeare over there?
I'd rather my sister be a prostitute than my brother a Cub fan.
Groan
Just imagine if we had signed Hampton back in 2000. We’d have a former all-world team on the DL right now.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
what would lohse
bring to the Cards if we were to trade him this season?
Ohhh........
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
A VERY unhappy manager!
I don’t see the Cards as “sellers” unless the bottom absolutely falls out in the next two weeks.
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
by The Ol Goaler on Jul 15, 2008 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
if he is going to walk anyway...
could he pry away a top prospect?
We might end up with a draft pick, at least
I don’t know what type of FA he’d be…any way to project that, assuming he continues his current paces?
he's worth
at least 1 supplemental 2nd round pick and up to a first-rounder AND a supplemental 1st round pick in the draft + a couple of wins at least over his replacement over the 2nd half here in St. Louis. As long as we’re in the race, and if the playoffs began today, we’d be playing Philadelphia, he’s MUCH more valuable with us than as trade bait.
Taking the ball every five days
is an undervalued trait and Lohse has it. Looper has had it also for the last two seasons. Where would the Cards be without them? They’d have a rotation of five “maybes.” IMO you need a couple of those types to be successful over a full season. There doesn’t seem to be any love for Looper getting a deal, and only mediocre support for Lohse. I think they need to sign Lohse ASAP: remember, if one of the young guys or one of the injured guys (or even better, several) come back strong, you’re in position to trade for what you need. Right now who are the certainties? Adam Eaton had the Wainwright injury and hasn’t been as good since. Who has confidence in Paletta? Not me. The Cards’s track record with injured pitchers is horrendous. I also think 10mil a year is low. Didn’t Lidge just get 3yrs, 34.5? – for a reliever. The defense right now is good- acquire pitchers who can benefit from it.
by vinniefromjersey on Jul 15, 2008 11:25 AM EDT reply actions
Stop that. You are scaring me.
Please. No more comparisons between Adam Wainwright/Adam Eaton. You are scaring me…....
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
It is frightening,
isn’t it? But when you look at Carp, Mulder, Clement, Kinney, Johnson, etc.,etc.,etc, who can have confidence they know how to return a pitcher to full strength?
by vinniefromjersey on Jul 15, 2008 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
It's not just the Cardinals...
every team in MLB faces the problem of getting injured pitchers back. We’re just most familiar with the Cardinals because they’re “our” team.
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
by The Ol Goaler on Jul 15, 2008 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
agreed
There is not one team in MLB who has a100% return rate on injured pitchers…......
Guys break down a lot and lots fail to meet their true potential.
Yep. Everything from blisters, to feet, knee,hamsting, finger, elbow, forearm, shoulder, triceps,
vascular, oblique strains, back problems…...you name it, they get it. Anyone of those things can stop any pitcher dead in its tracks. You never know how they are going to come back- or if they are going to come back. Pitching is hard on the body, and I don’t care what thepainguy says, pitchers with “good” mechanics breakdown too. The ones that never breakdown are the freaks-arms and shoulders are simply not designed to throw baseballs at 90+ miles per hour…...
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
I agree
Never discount a guy who can make 34 starts a year as Loshe has proven he can do over his career. Every play-off team has a guy or two like Loshe.
I
Also, you can't assume because he makes 34 starts this year that he makes 34 starts NEXT year.
He’s durable now-maybe next year, maybe not. I mean even big, strong, Carlos Zambrano hit the DL this year-he had never missed a start since he became a regular in the Cubs rotation-that dates back to 2003. And I bet he’s back on it before the years out…......no guarantees, ever, with a pitcher, not even one with a track record of durability.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
durability is a great trait, and it is undervalued
but it’s still not worth $10m a year. the cards get guys like that for cheap every season — marquis and supps in 2004, weaver in 2006, looper and pineiro last year, lohse this year. you do need that skill on your team, but you don’t allocate superstar dollars to it. you pay what it’s worth, ie $5m a year.
You just mentioned Jeff Weaver and Joel Piniero
I thought the current trend around here was to get away from the bargain basement shopping that landed us these guys, as well as a boat load of crap by the names of Esteban Yan, Sidney Ponson, Sterling Hitchcock, Randy Keisler, Mike Maroth, Kip Wells, Jorge Sosa, Kevin Jarvis, Bill Pulsipher, and Matt Clement.
Finding undervalued pitchers who actually give you some sort of decent return is an extremely difficult task to become anywhere close to good at doing.
most of the guys on your list are relief pitchers
not relevant to our discussion. as for weaver and pineiro — they were both picked up essentially for free at midseason, and they both sopped up innings in the season of acquisition. weaver helped pitch the cards to a world title; you can’t compare him to kevin jarvis or randy keisler.
the cards were smart to let weaver walk after that year, and they should have let pineiro do the same or sign him for a cheaper contract; i was very critical of the re-signing at the time it occurred. my point is that you can always find a healthy arm out there, and you can usually find it pretty cheaply.
the way to get away from the bargain-basement approach is to develop your own pitchers, not to overpay for free agents. the cards are well on their way toward developing a homegrown rotation, but they’re still a year or two away.
Most?
7 of the 10 guys mentioned where brought to the team to start (Ponson, Hitchcock, Keisler, Maroth, Wells, Jarvis, and Clement). And it you’re talking about spending cheaply to acquire starting pitching, why can’t I include Jarvis and Keisler with Weaver? They were all acquired for the same reason. Just because 1 pitched well and the others didnt’ really doesn’t change anything.
And I agree that a strong development systems is obviously ideal, but in your comment that I replied to, you said durabitlity was a trait that you need on your team. You do not pay superstar dollars for it, you pay $5 million dollars for it. Since most guys coming out of the system don’t get paid $5 million, you we’re obviously talking about acquiring pitchers viturally no one else wanted. Kyle Lohse doens’t come around every year.
Look, you said the Cards get guys like Weaver, Piniero, Suppan, Marquis every year. I just thought it was relevent that they aren’t batting 1.000 in this area. Plus, it’s a very difficult premise to rely on the team’s ability to add stability to your rotation if you have the feeling that they’ll just go out and find another Lohse or Suppan or Marquis or even Pineiro to do the job.
They’ve been very lucky, but they’ve also had their share of broken eggs as well.
include whoever you want to
we can argue all day about whether their scrap-heap strategy has been effective or not. i think it has worked out reasonably well, but you’re entitled to a different opinion.
the question is: if the cards are going to change strategies, is handing out $30m contracts to guys like kyle lohse the right way to go? or are they better served to develop their pitchers from within. i think they need to develop from within — and that’s the main reason i prefer washburn to lohse. washburn’s salary will come off books just in time for the homegrown pitchers to step in, whereas lohse would be a $10m blockade on a young pitcher in 2010-2011.
Keisler & Jarvis
those guys were AAA roster fillers. they were not reclaimation projects.
"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon
sterling hitchcock
just glancing his BR page. He went 5 – 1 with an ERA below 4 down the stretch for the 2003 Cards. Just because the team didn’t make the playoffs doesn’t mean he was a bad pickup. However, you forgot to mention Brett Tomko in the boat load of crap.
"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon
Whenever I hear "Durability" I think of all the talk about Zito and Hampton
Hampton was billed as the most durable pitcher out there, never missed a start, no injury risk.
Just shows how little we know.
Carlos Zambrano has been one of the most abused pitchers throughout his career
Besides, if you’re going to take the position (not calling you out, jill, just the position which many do hold) that “you never know about next year”, then why even have a conversation? If you can look at a track record, see consistancy, and NOT bet on seeing more of that consistance then the whole thing becomes a big crap shoot.
Joe?
see consistancy
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
It's a long running joke on firejoemorgan
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
Oh
I don’t visit that site, so I guess I’m just the butt of your joke and I’ll never know why. Oh well. I’m sure I’ll survive.
You should
It’s hilarious
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
FREMP!
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Jul 15, 2008 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Lohse
will be facing Peavey, then probably Sheets out the gate. Considering the many variables, he should be 11-4 by the deadline. If not, and he can win one of those, Look out.
Personally, from a purely humanistic stand point, the reasoning and assumptions made here I think are incredible…...............This is a wealthy organization. The firing of Jocetty is probably more complex than you understand. You all over-estimate the stability of Wainright and of course Carpenter let alone Welly who is showing all the signs of “elbow blow”. Your GM is an interim, holding down the ownerships interests, which in the waining Bush years has little to do with baseball…...... It is almost certain this team comes out of the gate slow, and ownership breaths a sigh of relief, trades Kyle Lohse for prospects, Rasmus is brought up and you all talk about the future. It appears ownership isn’t into this, just like last year. I think it will be the Phillies that lunge at the first hook that hits the water. In case you haven’t noticed, nothing has been spent, or done with this team, save the acquisition of Lohse, most likely with the understanding that he would be traded at the Break…....they’ve got 2 mill in…...and can take 12 mill value out. What do you think they will do, and what more interesting, what will they give to you as reasoning…........................... Ilboros, your reasoning will not compete in this division any longer…...fact.
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Jul 15, 2008 11:35 AM EDT reply actions
i figured you wouldn't like my conclusions, westcoast bird
but i stand by them. the facts are all true, and the reasoning is fair; if not, show me some hard evidence to the contrary. you’re entitled to your point of view about the ownership, the g.m., &c., but that’s just your opinion. i disagree w/ it.
I disagree with it as well.
They seem willing to spend. The question is do they have the baseball acumen to spend wisely.
by vinniefromjersey on Jul 15, 2008 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
As are yours "just opinions".
All I know of this organization is what I’m seeing this year. Scott Boris sounded off this morning in the press. Cards didn’t…........ You don’t have to be Sherlock to see whats coming here.
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Jul 15, 2008 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
One more thing
Jarrod Washburn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Jul 15, 2008 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
but westcoast bird, here's the thing
we cardinal fans have watched this dance a lot over the past few years. the cards have refused to overpay for successful incumbent pitchers like matt morris, jeff suppan, jeff weaver, jason marquis, woody williams, &c &c. other teams committed big dollars / years to those players, and in most cases they were sorry; only suppan has been even remotely worth the money, and his contract still has 2 years to run. we’ll see if it was a good investment 2.5 years from now.
anyway, the cardinals have chosen a different allocation for their money, and it has generally worked out - aside from last year, when they were blind-sided by carpenter’s opening-night injury, their rotations have been very competitive despite the absence of big-dollar, long-term deals.
the athletics are another team who’ve operated this way - they stay in contention with young, cost-controlled pitchers. the twins have competed on that basis for many years, and are doing so again this season. ditto the marlins. the tigers used that strategy to vault into contention in 2006; the devil rays are doing it this year.
meanwhile, you’ve got teams like the mariners and rangers and astros and giants and dodgers who tie up fortunes in veteran pitching, and they flounder about. you seem to be saying that the cards can’t continue to compete unless they start fork over tons of money for veteran starting pitchers; the record is at odds with that characterization.
While I agree with you,
LB, that forking over tons of money to starting pitchers is the wrong idea, trading for a SP who is pitching far below his value who is signed through next season is also a bad idea. Joel Piniero was pretty good pitcher for the Mariners right around the same time Washburn was pitching well for the Angels, but I wouldn’t bet on either of them being at the level again anytime soon. It’s been stated that the Pineiro contract is bad, if that’s the case then adding Washburn is even worse because he’s going to make more money next season and hasn’t been as good as Joel or Looper this year so far.
I don’t think this team needs to fork over any money for a starting pitcher, and I don’t think they need to trade for one. If the key is helping the team this year, then you go after AJ Burnett and try and get him for a couple of mid-level prospects since he’s definitely heading out of Toronto next year and two teams in need of a starter already made their deals. If Burnett pitches like he did the other night, he’s the best possible upgrade at that position for this year, and then you try and talk him into taking his option next year instead of walking. If he walks, there’s still that money on the table to go out and sign a middle infielder, sign Lohse to the deal you mentioned, or go out and get starter via trade or FA in the offseason. By trading for Washburn you give up all that flexibility.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
but you'll never get burnett for a couple of mid-level prospects
the blue jays are cheating themselves if they do that; they’re better off letting him walk and taking the supplemental first-rounder. if the cards can acquire burnett painlessly, that’s obviously better than getting washburn — but i don’t think it’s a realistic scenario. there’s no track record of pitchers like burnett getting traded cheaply at midseason; it always costs talent to get them. to get burnett, i think the cards have to raid their stash of top prospects, and in my opinion that’s the wrong way to go.
ok
That’s exactly my point then: If you’re looking to help this year, then you go after Burnett. If you’re looking for a low-cost, leveraged situation for the next two years, then you go after Washburn. It’s one or the other, but you can’t convice me that Washburn is any better than the pitchers that we have right now (so he doesn’t necessarily help this year), and you’re basically penciling him in next year when he might be the worst option because he’ll make $10 million (where we’d be better off spending that money someplace else).
Either this year or next, Washburn really doesn’t provide the Cardinals with a legitemate upgrade that could push them over the top. So, why not wait stand pat and see what the trade deadline brings in terms of middle infield and bullpen help—which are surely more needed than a below average starter who’s got an albatross contract.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
i think washburn does help this year
i think he’s almost as good a pitcher as kyle lohse. he’s got a higher k rate and a lower walk rate, and once you filter out the noise re batted balls, he is nearly as good at limiting damage on balls in play. a pitcher like that is better than pineiro and looper, and he’s healthy - which wainwright and wellemeyer aren’t. because of the uncertainty w/ those two pitchers, a guy like washburn could be valuable insurance.
the guy who might be better than washburn is jaime garcia — i don’t think he’s ready, but maybe he’ll prove me wrong. if garcia comes up and proves he can go 6 innings reliably, then we don’t need washburn. but if garcia is as shaky as the other rooks have been, then we need a stabilizer imho.
we keep having the same arguement...lol
If Wainwright and Wellemeyer aren’t healthy for the rest of the year, I don’t see how we can make the playoffs anyway. My premise is that they’ll be healthy for the rest of the season if we’re going to contend. If they aren’t healthy, I don’t see a reason to pick up another pitcher and forgo any salary and roster flexibility in the offseason.
I don’t think he’s as good as Lohse has been this year, and he’s 35 next year when we’ll be paying him $10 million.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
if they traded him right now
it would be save a little over $5M in salary, plus whatever mid-level prospects they got in return. if they know he’s going to walk, and they are out of contention, it could be a salary dump.
That $5M could be invested a different way next year…
"If thats bad luck, lets DFA our luck away." -DriverZN
Pitchers are too much of an injury risk
And have much larger variations in their performance than position players. As such I think it makes sense to commit your $$$ to position players and put together a solid offense and defense. Then roll the dice on your pitching staff with young players and reclaim projects.
Roll your dice with your pitching staff?
On young players and reclaim projects?
I hope your plans aren’t to win a championship anytime soon….......like ever?
Um, the marlins have won 2 with young pitching
How many have we won in the same time?
We have a budget, I think we will get farther paying players like Glaus, Pujols, and Ankiel than we will with big $$$ comitments to Carp and Loshe.
Its funny that lots of people here now want to trade for those once young Marlins pitchers. You don’t think Lincecum is just as ace like as Webb?
also the angels
they won it all in 2005 with young pitching - lackey, jarrod washburn, ramon ortiz were all homegrown and in their 20s. not to mention k-rod . . .
white sox in 2005 had buehrle (homegrown 20something), garland (ditto), two ex-yankee reclamations (contreras and el duque), and 1 pricey mid-career veteran (fred garcia).
cards in 2006 - carpenter (reclamation), weaver (ditto), reyes (dicey rookie), and suppan (cheap midcareer veteran). . . .
aside from the red sox in 2004/07, pretty much every championship rotation since the fall of the yankee dynasty has been built on homegrown youngsters and reclamation projects . . . . .
Agree
My point is this. If pitchers have great year to year variance, then there is no sure thing. I cannot name a long term pitching contract (5+ years) that has worked out for the team. Can anyone?
You can name long term position player deals that work out fine.
However, high variance also means a much better chance of something you bought low turing out well for a year or two (Welly, Suppan, Loshe, Woddy). Even when we go get a sure think, (Mulder, Danny Jackson) turns out they are not so sure.
So spend the money where you expect you will get return on your investment. Position players. Then use the variance in pitching to your advantage by playing the numbers game.
right ---- we're in total agreement
and part of our argument (if i may speak for us both) is that playing the numbers game well requires you to have talented pitchers cresting in your minor-league system. that gives you the ability to plug some or all of the holes that inevitably arise on any pitching staff by sifting through the young guys (as the cards are doing this year w/ mcclellan, garcia, parisi, boggs, perez, worrell, etc) to find the ones who are ready to contribute now. you do that instead of going to the scrap heap — it’s a cheaper solution, and you’re usually working w/ more talented players.
and because all those players are cheap, it gives you the luxury of paying a premium for short-term stability — paying $10m for a #3 / #4 type pitcher who eats innings but doesn’t do much else. you can afford a guy like that without wrecking the payroll because you’re only paying $400K to mcclellan, perez, et al.
Maddux and Mussina
Maddux is a freak obviously and actually had back-to-back five year deals. Mussina had a couple of average years mixed in, but generally was good and stayed on the hill at least.
Given thats 2 of Many I am not sure I like those odds.
On the other hand the list of position players that had productive 5yr deals is much longer and a greater percentage of the deals given out.
Then i guess it all depends on your definition of "roll the dice"
Because to me that means just thowing anything out there you can get your hands on. If you want to look at it as what you guys are looking at it, virtually every staff in baseball would be consisted of reclamations and young guys. i guess I just had issue with the choosing of the term “roll the dice” as if there was no planning involved.
As always, entertaining westcoastbirdwatcher.....
And I don’t quite know what to make of what you say….....you do that on purpose, don’t you?
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
The ellipses are confusing me
Usually they are used in mid-sentence or mid-paragraph to indicate the omission of a word or words. Have you omitted portions of your argument? If so, please add them so I can perhaps understand what it is you are putting forth in your post.
From what I gather, it is basically that ownership doesn’t care about winning and is misleading everyone about injuries as well as their intentions to compete, as evidenced by a secret agenda to trade Lohse for prospects at the trade deadline.
why bring back LaRussa at $4M
if your philosophy is to go with the youth (i.e. cheap) movement? You could have just given the job to the Secret Weapon for $1M and been done with it. I understand that this organization cuts corner and does alot of double speak, but they also get some things right.
Breakdown.
will be facing Peavey, then probably Sheets out the gate. Considering the many variables, he should be 11-4 by the deadline. If not, and he can win one of those, Look out.
It’s pretty crazy to try to predict exactly what his record will be, even two starts down the road, based on what the opposing pitchers are going to be. You project him to lose to the Padres, even though the Padres are just about the worst collection of bats in the majors. And what if he pitches 7 IP, 2 ER and gets a no decision like he did against the Cubs two starts ago? I mean, really, there’s nothing more arbitrary than projecting W/L two starts into the future and thinking it’s going to affect his trade value significantly in any way.
Personally, from a purely humanistic stand point, the reasoning and assumptions made here I think are incredible……............
That’s a lot of periods. I don’t really know what your point is. You think “the reasoning and assumptions” are incredible, but you don’t actually mention which of those points you’re talking about or why you think they’re incredible. I think it’s incredible to project Lohse to get saddled with a loss over his next two starts.
This is a wealthy organization.
Yes, it is a wealthy organization. What it is not is an organization with unlimited money. So what’s your point exactly?
The firing of Jocetty is probably more complex than you understand.
Or maybe it isn’t. But saying something is “probably” more complicated doesn’t make it more complicated, especially if you provide zero reasoning as to why it’s probably more complicated.
You all over-estimate the stability of Wainright and of course Carpenter let alone Welly who is showing all the signs of "elbow blow".
In terms of productivity, I don’t really think there’s any reason to doubt the production of Carpenter and Wainwright at this point. They’re not suddenly going to start throwing 10 MPH slower for no reason. In terms of health, I think the people on this site are taking a pretty realistic view—expect nothing from Carpenter this year, Wainwright should be back and be effective if he stays healthy, and Wellemeyer continues to be an enormous question mark going forward. You act like people here are touting them as three dependable, 100% health frontline pitchers.
P.S. “Elbow blow”? What exactly are the signs of “elbow blow”?
Your GM is an interim, holding down the ownerships interests, which in the waining Bush years has little to do with baseball
Actually, he’s not an interim. And all GMs hold down ownership interests, which usually has something to do with fielding a winning baseball team with a certain amount of money. In fact, that’s basically their job description. If the owners aren’t concerned with baseball, what are they concerned with? Knitting?
It is almost certain this team comes out of the gate slow, and ownership breaths a sigh of relief, trades Kyle Lohse for prospects, Rasmus is brought up and you all talk about the future.
Now that’s a fun prediction, and I really had a good time thumbing through all the stats you provided to support it. If I follow your train of though correctly, Mo doesn’t care about baseball because the owners don’t care about baseball, and this will (after the arbitrary point of the all-star break, but not before) cause the players who are already on the team to suddenly drop in production for no apparent/specified reason and thus the team will tank. This will make the owners happy because they hate money, and team success brings money for them. They also hate winning. Lohse will also be part of this collapse, since he’s going to lose his next two starts to the Brewers and Padres—but presumably he’ll be good enough in those starts that his ERA won’t be shot to hell (scaring away potential trade partners), and thus Mo will trade him at his current value. Rasmus will be promoted to play somewhere unspecified (presumably Ludwick’s arms will have fallen right off his body) and we’ll all start babbling about the future. Sounds like a pretty solid projection. Definitely no “incredible assumptions” there.
It appears ownership isn’t into this, just like last year.
That’s cool. When did you talk to them? Between claiming that they’re holding their breath hoping the team will tank and claiming that they just aren’t into it, it sounds like you’ve been interviewing them or something. Otherwise…well. Incredible assumptions.
I think it will be the Phillies that lunge at the first hook that hits the water.
Whatever. I don’t really know what hook you’re talking about (Lohse?), but interesting prediction.
In case you haven’t noticed, nothing has been spent, or done with this team, save the acquisition of Lohse, most likely with the understanding that he would be traded at the Break
Nothing was spent, and yet the team is contending for the division. Well, actually, some money was spent—we gave contracts to Izturis and Miles. Plus we picked up Glaus’ extension in that trade. And I think we extended Wainwright. And if I’m remembering correctly, we had to re-up Springer, too. But nothing was really spent.
Oh, by the way, when you don’t fork over any large amount of money and your team improves drastically, that’s not bad ownership/GM’ing. Maybe it’s a little lucky, but it’s pretty silly to damn them for not spending money on a team that’s pushing for the playoffs. Also, I assume that Mo told you he was planning on trading Lohse in that interview you had with him. Or maybe you’re just making an assumption again.
they’ve got 2 mill in……and can take 12 mill value out.
Shoddy math. I assume you’re saying they got half his contract (2 mil, which is actually more like 2.5 mil with the incentives kicking in) and should trade him. But then we’re going to get the value of half a season of a guy with a $24 million contract? So…Lohse is going to bring Johan Santana prospects? Either that or you’re saying he’s literally six times as valuable now as he was at the beginning of the season, which would obviously be a huge overestimation considering the guy has an ERA in the high 3.00s.
What do you think they will do, and what more interesting, what will they give to you as reasoning
Is this is a question? If so, who are you asking? And what are you implying with the latter part of the question? Presumably more damning things about the integrity of your buddies in the front office.
Ilboros, your reasoning will not compete in this division any longer……fact.
That’s a pretty amusing thing to say considering lboros pushed hard for a Lohse acquisition over last winter and now Lohse is the defacto ace in Wainwright’s absence. I’d say his reasoning is competing pretty hard in this division right now, personally. In any case, he certainly backs his reasoning well with statistics.
For a person who damns assumptions, you sure make a lot of them.
I will never spend that much time on a comment ever again.
fact:
some people’s opinions are mere opinions, which is why they do their best to back them up with credible arguments and evidence, and admit that because they are just opinions, their predictions won’t necessarily pan out.
fact: other people’s opinions are, in fact, fact. which is why they don’t need argue their case and can simply declare how the future will occur.
it’s the truth. it’s actual. (everything is satisfactual!)
What is this?
Fire Joe Morgan: Crazy blog commenter edition? :-D
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Thank you Mojo
I love you man…............. Its a little like watching the adults play chess isn’t it…... Those off color pawn moves…......... Its all over with anyway. The big fish are now swimming.
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Jul 15, 2008 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
At least when I'm watching chess....
I can understand what each person is doing by looking at the game…
I can’t understand what you say half the time because your grammer is so poor. That, and you string together thoughts and sentences that don’t have anything to do with one another….
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Do you see fourstick?
A master poet i is not,
plenty o problems i has got,
But in this heart,
Moses stands chisel in hand gazing at the star filled sky, steadfast against the high mountain air, a flaming bush warms his back and lights his work.
Siddhartha is sitting by his Ganges, the river flowing forever inward.
Lord Krishna is standing close by, ever watching, blue on pointed toe; both a model of the grace i hope to know.
A rabbi’s blood stains neither cloth nor hand in my hope. Free me Rome; and loose from your bondage my brother Yeshua, he cries!
Sitting in his simple hut made of reeds, deep within a grove of bamboo, the sage has made ready, tea for all.
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Jul 15, 2008 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Great
now we have the mixing of religions and theologies on a baseball blog…FANTASTIC!!!!
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I really don't know why anyone reads anything he says
and actually responds to it. Is it not obvious that all he wants is a response? And by doing so, no matter if you agree, disagree or make fun of him, all it does is encourage the ridiculousness.
You're welcome
I’m only halfway sure you’re not a troll anyway…in fact, I’m pretty sure you are. If you weren’t to begin with, you’ve turned into one because of people thinking your actual ideas were jokes.
And no, it (whatever “it” is) isn’t like watching pawns play chess. That’s a horrible metaphor. But you probably knew that already, it being part of the act, so I guess I should probably just drop it.
Waiver questions...
Imagine with me if you will…it’s mid August and Wainwright has just made his second successful (almost dominating) start… perhaps Carp has made it back and is looking effective as well…we traded for JW just after the ASB, so we now have a VERY full rotation…WW, Carp, Lohse, Welley, Washburn, Piniero, Looper (and all of the young guns LB mentioned)...if we place Lohse, Piniero, or Looper on waivers do we have to come to terms with the team that might claim them?
waivers
this is a good point. if we do add a starting pitcher and (i see this as very unlikely) carpenter and wainwright come back healthy and wellemeyer prooves healthy. then we are left we a surplus after the non-waiver deadline. I think guys like Piniero and maybe Looper would clear waivers and we could trade them if we end up with a surplus.
to answer your question, i believe this is how the waiver system works – if another team claims a player your options are: you can pull him back off waivers and keep him, just let the other team take him (and his contract), or work out a trade with the other team (players involved in the trade that are on 40-man roster would also have to clear waivers)
"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon
Time limit
but there is a time limit. You either have to keep him or let him go via release or trade in a certain number of days (10?). So, you might be trying to trade him, but if the other team plays hardball, you’re stuck with either keeping him or losing him for nothing.
Good Point.
Wouldn’t Washburn clear waivers? Thus, the cards can wait and see what they have if anything for this year in Carp and Wain before trading for Washburn.
I agree
Only downside with that is that it wastes about 4 weeks we could have had him throwing for us.
i think you are confusing waivers with DFA
When you DFA a player to clear a spot on your 40 man, you have 10 days to trade him or release him. You can’t bring him back to your club and must pay his whole salary minus the pro-rated league minimum if you can’t find someone to take him within 10 days. he becomes a free agent.
The waiver wire exists to move players between teams after the trade deadline. it works just as DJ described, and there is no time limit involved; once a player passes through waivers, he can be traded to anyone. But you don’t HAVE to trade him and he can still play for your club after being waived.
The one point that DJ missed is that you can only put a guy on revocable waivers once; after you’ve pulled him back, if you try to sneak him through again, it’s irrevocable and any team can claim him for the price of his contract.
"If thats bad luck, lets DFA our luck away." -DriverZN
nailed it, Sleepy
not an easy one, either. The first waivers is revocable—you can pull him back. If you try it again, you’ve lost him.
Doesn't the acquiring club also pay a $25,000 fee to the club as well as the remaining salary?
And don’t clubs use this to guage interest too? See who bites, then pick up the phone?
Not the irrevocable ones obviously, but the first time waiver?
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Okay
At first, I thought you were saying exactly what I was saying. But then a lightbulb went off above my head and everthing became clear. Honesly, I’m a little disappointed in myself because I know this rule. And thank you for saying I was “confusing” waivers and DFA. That’s all it was. Just a little cloudiness on a Tuesday after lunch.
Anyway, waiving a player doesn’t take him off the roster. You’re right.
Actually, if you pay attention (and this always freaks people out every year), you’ll see a ton of guys sent through waivers just to see if they’ll make it. Guys like Ludwick, Izturis, Kennedy, Ankiel, Glaus, Springer, etc. will all probably be sent through waivers “just in case”. It doesn’t mean the team is wanting to move them or whatever. They just do it to see what happens. If they clear and something comes up, they can trade them. If they don’t, they revoke the waivers and nothing ever comes of it.
Lohse over Washburn
I generally agree with lboros on most of his analyses like this, but this time I’ve got to go with Lohse at $10M for 3 years over Washburn. My reasoning is not very in depth, but, to me, Lohse is just a better pitcher, younger, proven in our league, etc. Until we KNOW that Carp will be back to something approaching his old form next year, we need a guarantee and Lohse has been the closest thing to a guaranteed QS this year.
I do acknowledge that this a) doesn’t improve the team this year, and b) gives us less flexibility in 2010/2011, but, as several others have pointed out, even at $10M if his performance holds up, then I think there would be a market for Lohse at that time IF we find ourselves with a surplus of pitching.
Of course, it would be great if Lohse would sign for, say, $9M/yr, but, as you said, the bar seems to have been set, he may, in fact, be thinking more along the lines of $12M/yr. (And, if so, I think my argument changes.)
Exactly...
If Washburn, and his craptasticness this season, is worth dealing for at $10 million next year, wouldn’t Lohse probably be worth more in a year or two at the same price? The cost of starting pitching seems to go up every single year, so a deal with Lohse, especially a front loaded one, would look a lot better from the Cardinal standpoint if he’s willing to accept a deal like that one.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Just to be picky
You mean $30m for 3 years . I get confused easily.
Seems like
both moves are risk-averse in that you’re trying to get an inning-eater to shore up the middle of your rotation. Whichever option you prefer is based on your assumptions on perceptions of risk and loss. If the cards sign loshe for three years, then there’s a chance he’ll be blocking somebody who can dominate while merely eating innings or that he’ll get hurt and just cost money while not contributing. On the other hand, Washburn might be able to take loshe’s spot next year, but is lower risk because he’s not going to be around after that if he gets hurt or is ineffective. The problem i see with this argument is that there’s also a strong likelihood that the cards could sign washburn, let loshe go, one or more of carp/wainwright/welley/mulder(JK) end up falling out of the rotation and only maybe one of our top pitching prospects pans out. Then wouldn’t the team be kicking itself for not signing Loshe? There are tons of uncertainties there, but the same could be said of any of the other scenarios. If more than one pitching prospect DOES pan out, then loshe is suddenly a great trading chip.
lboros seems to be looking for the least risky move over the next few years, and in that i’m in agreement, but I’m not entirely convinced that signing washburn is risk free given the potential opportunity cost presented in this scenario.
Jarrod Washburn
I look at him as a poor man’s Ted Lilly, who greatly improved by moving out of the AL and onto a team with better defense. He doesn’t have Lilly’s strikeouts, but walks fewer at about the same rate. I could see him making a very good run with the Cardinals, seeing as our home park depresses the long ball, especially against RH who are the ones who’ve been slugging the crap out of him, and given our exceptionally good OF defense with Skip-Ank-Lud out there.
And who’s to say we couldn’t trade him during the offseason? A durable left-handed pitcher is always in high demand around the start of spring training. (Not sure on the details of his limited no-trade clause.)
Washburn is terrible
He’s no better than what we are running out there.
by JI on Jul 15, 2008 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
washburn
maybe you have done some in depth analysis to come up with this opinion. but it seems like a lot of people are just writing off washburn because his numbers aren’t that good. Lboros has done analysis that suggests washburn might not be as bad as the numbers indicate.
I know this is just one example, but for all those who are writing off Washburn as “terrible” I submit the case of Woody Williams. His ERA was around 5 when the Cards traded for him and he was 34 years old. He appeared to be on the downside of a mediocre career. We all know how that worked out. I’m not saying Washburn is Woody, but I’d rather the Cards brass make a move to try to improve the team and give Washburn a shot than just stand pat especially since he will cost very little in terms of prospects.
"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon
is he 4 foot 8 inches tall?
cause that would have more bearing on whether he is a viable alternative than his w/l record for the worst team in the bigs
Lawl
a century where some people have learned that a pitcher has little to no control over win/loss records. if you missed the main post maybe you should read it again. it uses actual stats that have more predictive value on washburn’s potential with the cards than quoting his w/l record.
Or in other words 2.5 Aaron Miles?
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
a 4' 8" pitcher would be incredible
he might actually be able to throw a true rising fastball.
"If thats bad luck, lets DFA our luck away." -DriverZN
From his wikipedia page
So, take it with a grain of salt…
He was secretly signed by the St. Louis Browns and put in uniform (complete with elf slippers & the number “⅛” on the back) as a publicity stunt by maverick Browns owner and showman Bill Veeck.
Eddie Gaedel was under strict orders not to attempt to move the bat off his shoulder. When Gaedel had hinted to Veeck that he might be tempted to swing at a pitch, the owner promised to bring a rifle to the game and shoot him if he tried. Tigers catcher Bob Swift offered his pitcher a piece of strategy: “Keep it low.”
In 1961, Veeck hired several dwarves and midgets, including Gaedel, as vendors, so as not to “block the fans’ view” of the game.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eddie_Gaedel
Our society has come a long ways in terms of political correctness, no?
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
Read USSM or LL
He’s worse than the numbers indicate.
by JI on Jul 15, 2008 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Lohse
Unfortunately he is worth more to us as a Type A free agent that we offer arbitration to. He could net us the equivalent of two #32 picks. Unless he is willing to sign for 3/24, I don’t think the relative value of an extension would be there. Some outside the box thinking might yield trading Piniero and his 09 salary and signing Lohse 3/30 (as you might be relatively more confident that Lohse would product and be willing to sacrifice the benefit of the one year contract for Piniero).
Unfortunately I just see Lohse moving on after this year with us getting comp pics. Not bad 1Y/4.5M and some comp pics….
Assuming
that he’s a type A free agent—and he won’t be. He’ll be no better than type B, because it goes of Elias three year averages, and he really hasn’t been markedly better than league average until the last 12 months or so.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Dug up a link
here.
It’s apparently an un-weighted 2-year average of a few simple stats you’d find in the sports pages. Relevant bullet point:
The rankings are based on the past two years’ data. Published reports and regression analysis have indicated that the ranking system is a 100-point scale, and is done by averaging the player’s ranks within their categories [ed—(1B,DH,OF),(3B,SS,2B),SP,RP,C] in certain statistical categories, such as plate appearances, home runs, and RBI for hitters, and innings pitched, strikeouts, and ERA for pitchers. It seems that each category [ed—positional category, that is] is measured based upon a slightly different set of statistics from the others.
Why worry about starting pitching?
Really thats the one part of the team that I am NOT worried about for next year. I would let Lohse walk and take the draft picks. Or if he accepts Arb (unlikely) you have a pitcher on a 1yr deal. Either way its a win.
We need to put our $$$ into a SS and 2B that are not a black hole. We have half a season to see if Boggs, Garcia, Todd, or Mort are ready to fill in next year.
Its easy to find undevalued SP that get decent GB/FB rations, don’t strike anyone out, and just pitched in a bandbox in the previous year. Take them, put them in front of a good defense, score a few runs for them and you have Suppan, Loshe, Pinero, Looper, Marquis (04) V2
certainly, you may
but, just for my edification, I’d rather you expand on your argument by explaining why. I’m not crazy about Washburn, though I’ll agree that trade would be better than signing Lohse for 3 years at $10M per. But I hardly think it would qualify as a disaster!
OK, OK
If you’re trading for Washburn, and he’s replacing Villone, AND Seattle picks up all the money, AND we don’t give away anyone we’ll miss—fine.
As for Loshe, there are always other options. Extending a mediocre pitcher who is clearly overperforming is never a good idea. Just move on to the next Duncan reclamation project next offseason.
by JI on Jul 15, 2008 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions
why the Al wins every yr?
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-ichirospeech071508&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2
MLB is truly the worlds greatest collection of superstitious people
Never heard this story. Pretty funny. Wished someone would tape the speech.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Jul 15, 2008 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
That is hysterical
Yet another reason why Ichiro is my favorite non-Cardinal
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
the real reason to add washburn
clearly the most important reason to add washburn has been overlooked. not only is he a mediocre pitcher that can be had on the cheap and maybe duncan can turn him around but…...HE WAS A MEMBER OF THE 2002 ANGELS. With Eckstien and Troy gone, even with the addition of Glaus this year we still need to add another former Angel (don’t forget Kennedy) to balance it out.
"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon
That
Or sign Tim Salmon to be our “cleanup, power bat”.............
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Has he been working on his defense?
I’d be worried that he’d “boot” a few balls
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
Ah shit
Erstad, not Salmon, was the punter at Nebraska. Damn it!
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
it's simple
if Lohse wants to play in St. Louis and doesn’t expect a fortune to do so, might as well sign him. he might even want to go for another of those 1 year deals. he plays well with Duncan, has been consistent, and has been a very positive addition to the team. and his health is pretty undervalued imo.
as far as Washburn, I know nothing of the guy. plus adding another starter makes things really more complex than they should be. I’m still with the bullpen help crowd I supposed, unless we can work out some sort of amazing deal for Burnett, etc. it just doesn’t seem worth adding someone like Washburn because (barring any injuries) what the heck do we do with Looper, etc? maybe we could move Welley into closer role, which I like the sound of.
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 15, 2008 2:38 PM EDT reply actions
I'd like for Mo to...
offer Boras and Lohse 3/24 today and give them this week to decide. Tell them you will not be offering them anything in the offseason…it’s now or never. If they take it…good pitcher/contract…YEAH!! If not, try and trade for Washburn/Rhodes, and say so long to Lohse for 2009.
the problem with that is
do you really want to say now or never to your de facto ace?
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 15, 2008 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
maybe if he pitches us into the playoffs...
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 15, 2008 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
whoops
this was meant to be down there. I’ll retype it
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 15, 2008 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Well maybe it's more like...
take it now or we’re going to TRY to move in another direction…i.e. trade for somebody just like you. If our efforts should fail we may extend another offer in the offseason, but if you don’t like this offer we plan to move on without you.
IMO we can only do one or the other (extend Lohse or make a trade)...not both.
I'd rather them not bother him with that stuff while in the playoff hunt
but then again, I don’t know much about that stuff
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 15, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I get the sentiment...
there, but it’s that time of year. This is still a business, and Mo is thinking about next year as much as he is this year…or so he says.
Lohse's value
I can’t begin to express how absolutely fortunate Cards fans got to get Lohse, with the lack of talent that was out there on the market this past offseason. Silva in Seattle…stinking. Kuroda is doing ok in LA…then the rest of the crop, nothing to write home about…but kyle lohse is just dominating and winning, and I can easily see why you would want him to sign an extension and it’s my hope you will, with Mulder likely being done, and the aquisitions the Brewers and Cubs have made.
I’d still like the see the Cardinals make a run at Bedard if he is healthy, but he will cost a lot. Probably more than you’d wish to pay, but the pitching is there before July 31st.
If you’d like to see our site, it’s http://www.diehard101.com/phpfox and we hope you enjoy. It’s kind of a MySpace for sportsfans of all ages.
Think you are all crazy
If you think Lohse is going to accept a 3 yr/30mil contract. More like 4 year/48mil.
Washburn has a bad contract which makes him a perfect trade candidate for after the July 31st deadline. You can still trade through the waiver up till the end of August. (IE Larry Walker Deal) That would give us enough time to see if Wainwright and Carp can contribute
you really think Lohse is going to get $12 mil a year?
cmon. he almost wasn’t signed this season
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 15, 2008 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
if he pitches us into the playoffs
then someone will take notice and pay him more (kinda like what happened to Suppan)
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 15, 2008 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
and weava got the 8 mil from Seattle
after being released and then being good down the stretch fro the birds
I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2
Weaver
he wasn’t released. They DFAed him and then during the 10 day period traded him to us for OF Terry Evans.
"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon
sorry
but he was still dumped..u see my point, maybe or maybe u missed it entirely
I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2
ASG Lineups:
Ichiro Suzuki RF
Derek Jeter SS
Josh Hamilton CF
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Manny Ramirez LF
Milton Bradley DH
Kevin Youkilis 1B
Joe Mauer C
Dustin Pedroia 2B
Hanley Ramirez SS
Chase Utley 2B
Lance Berkman 1B
Albert Pujols DH
Chipper Jones 3B
Matt Holliday RF
Ryan Braun LF
Kosuke Fukudome CF
Geovany Soto C
I like the NL Lineup more but man is that a horrible defensive outfield.
defense
Yeah, but at least the AL counters our bad defense with Jeter at SS and MannyBManny in left. I think it may be a wash…
Man I hope the NL wins…
"Give a man a fire, and he’ll be warm for a night. Set him on fire and he’ll be warm for the rest of his life."
I hope...
Clint Hurdle pulls fukudome out of the game after the first inning. Then in the post-game press conference state that he wanted to win so he benched the players who shouldn’t have been at the game, just to prove a point.
I know if I were managing the All-Star game, I would let the fans’ votes decide the starters, and if any of them were undeserving in the current season (Fukudome in NL, Jeter in AL), pull them after 1 inning and play the guys who have had all-star caliber seasons. The fans get what they want and the best players get to play the majority of the game.
that would be fantastic
in a bullworth sort of way.
"If thats bad luck, lets DFA our luck away." -DriverZN
I'm just excited Pujols is going to get "4 or 5" ABs
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
+1
We could use his glove too, but Berkman will be alright at first.
Why can't the Puma play outside of our division?
I’d really like to be able to like this guy. Anybody who makes up a nickname for themselves when discussing their fat is awesome.
Maybe we could spin something towards Ed Wade and he’d trade him to us? He may have to lose a few of those fat pounds to retain his puma like quickness and go back to the outfield but I think he could do it.
I like Berkman
I hate his baseball ability, but he seems like the nicest, most down-to-earth guy in MLB.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
I like berkman as a person but feel he is a tad overrated
I went to the Bo sox game and He was ofer from the Right side. Lester gets pulled and they bring in a rightie, he switches and gets a double i think. Late in the game with Oki available. I turn to yer dog and say “i’d switch berkman back to right side even though Okis struggled.” He doesnt Berkman hits another double i think in any event it proved to be the game winner.
His home away splits arent as bad as I imagined, yet BA with less ABs at home is like 30 points higher. Everythign else is very even 11 hrs at home and away. I still think he benefits from the park a lot but thats just me.
I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2
That distinction would probably go to Jim Thome
Every time the guy gets a new teammate, he calls them and takes them out to dinner or hunting or whatever they like to do. It’s actually kinda funny how nice Thome actually is.
I believe
that the NL wins it in the 1st inning. I think the starter has to complete 1 inning. Cliff Lee won’t get by Berkman and Pojols with Utley and Ramirez on base. My feeling.
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Jul 15, 2008 5:44 PM EDT reply actions
I actually kind of agree with you
I think Lee is much more likely to blow it than Sheets, and I hope the NL pounces all over him.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
Is it wrong
that even though “This Time It Counts” and the whole 11 straight by the AL, I still don’t care who wins this game?
Frankly, I’ll be lucky to watch an inning.
A further case for Washburn
I posted a lot of this in my fanpost last night, but since May 21st, Jarrod Washburn has started 9 times and has an ERA of 3.02 over that time period.
Washburn is pitching very well after an abysmal start, most of our starters are pitching poorly after an awesome start. We can get this guy for pretty much nothing, according to the Mariners’ beat writer for their local paper. On top of all of this, he is a lefty, something we now lack in our rotation with Mulder being completely broken.
Obviously, lboros is right that he’s unnecessary if Garcia comes up and is awesome, but otherwise, we need another starter.
this papelbon thing is
way overhyped
I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2
not sure why that replied to you
I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2
the beat writer say
take him, he’s fantastic. Just take him! Obviously Iboros is right!
Garcia will be beaten senseless on Sunday, by the Padre’s bench! He will walk at least 5.
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Jul 15, 2008 6:06 PM EDT reply actions
when im depressed remind me to avoid u
geez
I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2
reverse jinx dude
who says Garcia will play on sunday? do you have a crystal BBall…......................................................?
take who? right about what? what does this all mean?
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 15, 2008 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm getting Georgia election results at the bottom of the screen
BOOOOOOOOOOO
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
OK I just got chills when they announced Luddy
I’m so happy for him
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
Pujols was safe
strikeouts from left-center
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 15, 2008 9:40 PM EDT reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Have you criticized Hanley Ramirez on Twitter? Your name may be on his bat!
- U.S. senator cries foul over Nationals plans to take back park from Phillies fans
- Photo: Comerica Park readies itself for Hockeytown
- Podcast: Dirk Hayhurst talks about Italy, the reality of the big leagues and his new book
- Dennis ‘Oil Can’ Boyd claims he used cocaine before a majority of his games
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
