mopping up
by lboros on Jul 13, 2008 8:57 AM EDT
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PrintHC is due back from vacation today. he had a pre-programmed post set to go, but i figure night’s meltdown might still be on people’s minds; i know it’s on mine. so HC’s post will run either tomorrow or tuesday, and i’ll toss out a few quick reflections about that loss.
the 21-blown-saves stat is getting a lot of play, and i think it’s worth parsing that for a moment. 21 blown saves don't (as many people seem to assume) translate into 21 losses; it’s commonplace to lose a lead late in the game, blow the save, and still end up winning the game. the cardinals have done that several times this year, e.g. on may 2 vs the cubs, may 17 vs the rays, june 15 vs the phillies to name 3 quick examples. and it almost happened last night: mcclellan blew a save situation in the 9th and allowed the pirates to tie the score, but the cards got the lead back in the 10th and, had they held the 2nd lead, would have recorded a win despite blowing a save. instead, they got two blown saves but only one loss --- another illustration of how we can’t map blown saves directly to win-loss totals.
the only way to gauge the won-loss impact of all those blown saves is to go through the schedule and count up how many of them actually led to defeats. which i have just done; not a difficult task, took me about 10 minutes. of the 21 blown saves, 8 came in wins and 10 came in losses. you’ll note the numbers don’t add up to 21 --- that’s because the cards have 3 losses (including last night’s) in which they blew more than one save opportunity. so the won-loss impact of those 21 blown saves is 10 defeats --- and in truth it’s less than that, because no bullpen can be expected to be perfect. every team blows some saves and loses some games late --- so the question is, how many games have the cards lost that they would have won with an average performance by the bullpen? my sense is that the number is right around about 5 --- a lot lower than 21, but it's still a depressingly high number. add 5 wins to the cards’ total and they have the second-best record in baseball; they’re 19 games over .500 (at 57-38), half a game behind the cubs, and 5.5 games ahead of milwaukee in the wild-card race.
the 5-game estimate, by the way, gibes w/ the bullpen’s aggregate WPA figure as listed at fangraphs. as a unit, they are at -2.31 in WPA, or negative 4.6 wins (0.5 of WPA = 1 win). the only team with a worse aggregate bullpen WPA is washington.
one thing i haven’t heard mentioned anywhere is that jason michaels has stunned the cardinals twice now: he’s also the dude who hit the grand slam off adam wainwright back on june 2 to tie up a game the cardinals seemingly had well in hand. they led 4-0, you’ll recall, but it seemed like a much bigger bulge than that because wainwright had a 3-hit shutout going through 6 innings and was only 2 batter over the minimum. in the 7th he gave up a double and two walks, and with two out michaels jumped on the first pitch and hit it out to tie the game; wainwright stayed in and gave up the go-behind run the following inning. that doesn’t count as a blown save, but it might as well; another late lead the team failed to protect.
i’m mostly a numbers guy, but i do wonder about the psychological impact of last night’s defeat. comes at a very bad time --- wins have been hard to come by this month, and the additions of sabathia and harden to the division seem to have raised a few doubts in the clubhouse; the team is looking to the front office for a countermove. one loss usually doesn’t mean much in a season this long . . . . . still, the last thing the team needs is another challenge, another hurdle to overcome. the cardinals have handled most of them so far this year, but how long can a thin lineup and thin rotation keep it up? if i may use a tour de france metaphor: the team is like a domestique who’s found himself in the leading pack in an alpine stage, right there with the elite hill climbers. how long can he stay in the group? how long before he cracks?
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Excellent post, Larry...
thanks for breaking down the blown saves thing…I have always felt that the whole saves category is blown out of proportion on either side.
In terms of the rest of the season, I don’t have a good feeling about this without some kind of FO intervention.
Another way of looking at it
We are 2nd-last in MLB in WXRL at 1.438 (this is basically wins above replacement provided by your bullpen. The middle-of-the-pack teams in WXRL are at 4.4 or so, so if we had an average bullpen we would have about 3 more wins this year.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=319090
by mikedallas45 on Jul 13, 2008 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Tough loss and no easy answers
from the GM position. Some deal(s) must be made and I am afraid Mo may have to deal out of weak position. Good luck John.
Thanks for the clarification on the blown saves, Larry. That post makes more sense out of the crazy situation.
Steriods is...is bad.
It adds up
The five-game swing seems about right to me, too. And, of course, that is a lot.
I too wonder about the psychological impact of these missed opportunities. I think it adds up. In 2003 when Izzy struggled, it just seemed as if the team was carrying an extra weight into the late innings of games. No lead felt safe. I honestly thought that the team would be much improved in 2004 if only because I was optimistic Izzy would pitch well again. Of course, I had no idea how much better they would turn out to be. But a team that is always looking over its shoulder, feeling no lead is safe, is a team lacking in confidence. That was the 2003 team.
That’s my concern after last night’s game. How can these players regard any lead as safe after that debacle?
2006
you could make the argument that in 2006 they struggled b/c of Izzy’s failures as well, then when Waino was put into the closers role and stabilized the bullpen the cards went on quite a run.
"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon
Think small......
Forget about Fuentes and Marte-these pitchers are wanted by a lot of teams and will require a ransom-and I don’t blame their owners one bit. That’s what they should do.
San Diego is a mess right now-maybe look at Heath Bell? You know, the Padres did try to acquire the unwanted one in the off season-start with him and see what else they might want.
All this talk about Nady and Bay being available-forget them-I want McLouth. He’s one of those good all around sturdy players to build around-seriously, I want him. He does play the corners too….....ha, the old regime in Pitt almost threw him away…...
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
well
mclouth exploded out of the gates this year, but he has cooled off quite a bit recently. he is just another ryan ludwick. besides, trading within the division will never work out…remember when they tried to acquire craig wilson from pitt and they wanted a king’s ransom for him. no thank you.
He's younger than Ryan Ludwick is......
and IMO has a more well rounded set of skills. It’s moot, because the Pirates are not planning on dealing him. I’m just saying I’d rather have McLouth than Bay or Nady.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
possibly
i’m not sure ludwick will sustain this production much longer anyway, i wouldn’t mind selling high on luddy and lohse.
i certainly don’t want bay or nady…if we are getting it bat it had better be Holliday and no one else.
Remember when the Cubs got Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton for a pack of smokes?
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
Demoralizing & Puzzlng
I think you’re being generous. I believe with just an average bullpen we might have won more than just five of those 21 blown saves. Nonetheless, what I still don’t understand – observing the Cards from a distance and not being privvy to daily inside info from St. Louis – is why TLR and many Cardinal fans still have confidence and/or alibi for Isinghausen? I thought it was obvious back in May that Izzy, for whatever reason – injuries, age, confidence – was not who you want in the closer role anymore. Hey, no one lasts forever. Yet, here we are again last night with the same boat. Izzy comes in the ninth and we blow a four-run lead. To those who claim, “Well, he had good numbers since he came back.” Well, none of those were in tight, closer situations. He had no saves in that period.
Is it all his fault? Of course not, but how many blown saves are you going to allow one man to have? This is past being ridiculous. As iboros points out, we would and should be in great shape for a playoff spot…..but not now.
In a new era where relief pitching might be the most crucial part of a ballclub with starters only going 5-6 innings, it’s also mind-boggling how the best manager/pitching coach in baseball (according to many) can produce such an inept group of relievers and go way too long with people who have shown they can’t get the job done.
By the way, where I live, all Pittsburgh games are blacked out so I can’t watch the Cards when they play the Pirates. My only question on last night’s debacle – knowing how bad our ‘pen is – why was Wellemeyer pulled when he hadn’t even thrown 100 pitches? Did he get hurt?
Finally – (I have no where else to vent) – I, along with many of you, just hope that somehow all of this has totally demoralized this gritty team. Nothing is more debilitating in baseball than giving away games in the last inning when they appeared to be sure wins. I truly feel bad for this team. It deserves better.
4 run lead
isn’t exactly a tight closer situation. izzy should’ve been able to handle it.
as far as welly…he hasn’t really been the same since he came back and even though he was pitching pretty well last night, they were probably just playing it safe.
I just can't single out Izzy at this point
I can’t imagine that many people have any confidence in any of the people in the bullpen right now. Everyone in this bullpen has way too many bad outings, especially lately.
Wellemeyer...
was pulled after throwing 90+ pitches, had just given up the 4th run and was getting hit in that inning. I thought it was a good time to pull him. Let him leave the game with a solid lead and get the W to build some confidence (since he hasn’t been as good since the injury).
The biggest thing about last night’s game is that the 2 weak spots of the team were exposed. The Middle Infield and the Bullpen. If Miles doesn’t botch the double play in the 9th, the game is over and the Cards win 10-9. Sure, the bullpen should have never let it get to that situation. All Miles had to do was make a throw to first because Bay fell down leaving the batter’s box.
Call me a ________!
My sons 14 year old friend just wanted to read the ending game thread after watching with us last night, the third overflow 691 comments….after reading ahead of him, I put it the thread in the “R” wing of the parental control/not permitted viewing area, meaning he does not get to see any of that.
Anybody else with ? age kids might keep it in mind if youre just logging on or know that certain family members might want to follow the EL Birdos game thread take on the game. While Im anything but a prud and this is a first for me, theres stuff so far beyond the normal F stuff, that kids need to go to Cards website or SL-PD if they want follow up to the big loss…now you can throw stuff at me.
Rip me up, but Miles deserves better over there for sure…they all do, just ballplayers and they feel worse about the loss than anything that could be said or shown said within the 621 COMMENTS.
Well said
I personally don’t have kids old enough to read yet, but with that being said, I don’t use that type of language in my everyday life, so it is annoying to me to have to read it in the game threads. I just stop typing anything in those situations.
Thanks for being the one to step up and say something.by hoofhearted-pujols on Jul 13, 2008 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
a request
for any reader who does not like the tone or language of a particular comment — flag it. that way it will come directly to my attention. to flag a comment, you have to be logged in — click the "actions" button underneath the post (next to "reply") and then click "Flag" and follow from there.
you can also just send me an e-mail at vivaelbirdos AT yahoo DOT com.
Why is the blue language tolerated at all
We all use that type of language in private conversations etc but I don’t see why this is any different than any other social gathering. I say ban it.
from a legal perspective
this is closer to a private conversation among consenting individuals who choose to participate. i’m not arguing for the unfettered use of language, just arguing for community moderation as opposed to ridiculous filters. if you are offended, call someone out. don’t go whining to the moderator when you haven’t attempted to solve the problem yourself.
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Jul 13, 2008 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
The topic is open for discussion
by the moderator himself. My opinion is ban it—I don’t think its whining and I don’t think its ridiculous. Let’s hear what the community has to say. I personally don’t want ot spend a lot of time flagging other comments but will do it if that is the consensus.
im suggesting
that you express displeasure in real-time. i’ve seen it done before and work. i’m not dismissing your complaint as ridiculous, just the notion of filters as a method of regulating community activity.
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Jul 13, 2008 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
my opinion is to follow the community guidelines
if it is flagrantly offensive to you, flag it. It is an adult site, it isn’t for children. It isn’t like people go around trying to offend others. Some people get overly emotional at times, you will have that.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
i understand your point
but as the posting guidelines say, this is a forum designed for adult readers. i rarely go past the occasional f-bomb. the same goes for most of the posters on this forum. your friends’ 14 year old son hears far worse among friends and at school everyday. if you have a problem with cruder stuff than that, go ahead and flag it (yes, i realize some of last night’s comments were a little over the top). but if its the swearing i really don’t know what to tell you. you certainly aren’t forced to read anything.
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Jul 13, 2008 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
a point
can be made without using the f-bomb. i dont have children either, and i think some of the comments are entertaining, i mean, use the word on a regular basis myself. however, i dont walk around the grocery store dropping that word and then say “kids hear worse at school”. i guess what i’m saying is there are appropriate and inappropriate times to use it.
i agree
but de facto limitations on language for adults seems excessive (see The Duke’s post above). the community guidelines say tone it down when someone requests it. so if something offends you in a thread, say so. i dont run around screaming the f-bomb all the time but, as you say, there are times when it is appropriate and does little harm. we are all adults so we can use the community and ourselves to moderate. no need to make lboros leglislate. these communities fall apart under such circumstances.
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Jul 13, 2008 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
excuse me i meant de jure. whoops! too early to be having this debate on a sunday.
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Jul 13, 2008 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I wondered how...
my post would be interpreted and Im not surprised you MISinterpreted it.
Its not a debate, the guidelines here are well established. No debate was called for. No one is asking lboros to LEGISLATE anything, anywhere. Where do you see a call for debate? For lesgilation? Did you read the post?
Second, there is absolutely zero whining involved here about language, I dont whine and I generally take the Cards losing a heartbreaker in life as best I can. Ive seen several and no one was worse than the last, Pittsburg has some hitters that hit balls over the middle of the plate real hard. No surprise there, the loss had little to do with Miles. His homer played as big a part in the win Sunday if you want to look at one variable among hundreds that turns a baseball game on a dime.
Third, go read the 621 comments and then tell me again, “we’re all adults.” You can also see that F word would be a fairly mild use of language there if you actually read thru the thread. In this day and age the “F” word is kinda like saying Gee used to be, no big deal. Its the crude stuff. Plenty of that.
Yes, it IS an “adult site” mattyfrommo, have all the fun you want “being emotional.” People say and do a lotta stuff out of emotion, papers are full of it everyday. So each to his own, be emotional matty.
Last, themanthemyth…it was a word of caution to anyone that MIGHT have kids that follow ElBirdos games threads on this ONE particular morning. Period.
by cardschinmusic on Jul 14, 2008 4:16 AM EDT up reply actions
let me explain how replies work here
my reply to uncdubya’s comments mentioned whining. my reply to yours didnt. you obviously conflated my response to your post with my responses to other posts. the tiered nature of responses shows you to which post someone is responding.
uncdubya was requesting the banning of “blue language.” such banning would qualify as legislation (i.e. the creation of laws) from lboros. thats pretty hard to disagree with, eh?
my sole point in this discussion was to say we should use the available mechanisms for feedback: flagging or expressing displeasure.
i would note that yesterday’s posts were far cleaner, even when the game got dicey. ask and ye shall receive but there is no need to preach.
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Jul 14, 2008 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
The big question is
what to do about Issringhausen. When you have such a key member of your bullpen go sour and you don’t have someone to step in replace him, the whole bullpen can go south in a skinny minute. All the mix and match caused by Izzys demise has over taxed the whole relief corp. I just hope that Mc Cellan has not already been damaged.
A rotten apple can spoil the whole barrel and that is what has happened here. Chicago might have the same problem right around the corner with Marmol’s troubles flaring up.
A pen! A pen! My Kingdom for a pen!
Last nights loss was the most demoralizing loss I have witnessed this year. I have been happy with this team and willing to wait and make the “right move” not just any move. There is absolutely no question that the pen is the number one priority. MI, left masher, or a starting pitcher are all secondary, and none of which would have helped last night. Get me a closer, and a LOOGY. If Izzy has to be DFA in order to make room so be it!
Like the original post proved.....
Our bullpen hasn’t “cost us” that many games. Izzy has been all over the place, and Franklin has been a little erradic of late, but guys like Springer and Kmac have been more than solid all year. I don’t know what the answer is, or how bad the problem really is, but I don’t think we have alot of options. We aren’t going to get rid of guys like Izzy or Franklin. We just aren’t. If we could land a good LOOGY that can get righties out too, and it doesn’t cost us the bank, obviously that is something we should look at.
As for the loss itself, boy does that sting. You can look at a game like this, coupled with the opening night rainout that cost us a win, and there are 2 games I wish we had back. Hopefully the WC won’t come down to 2 games, or I might cry.
*&$*&(#
I wish I had something constructive to add. But I dont. That game looked like the Baseball Gods had peniceled in a Pirates win. And didn’t notice that the Pirates switched starting pitcher the rookie was blowing thier plans!
bullpen pratfall
Goofy game last night, and I agree that it could get into the collective heads of those overachieving Birds. Trivia question though: when is the last time the Cardinals had 22 hits, or more, and lost?
What concerns me most about all the bullpen attention:
That Mo and the Cardinals will make the classic mistake this off-season and go out to sign some relievers at an inflated market price rather than trying to find the solution in-house. Of all the areas the Cards need to improve via free agency, the relief corps should be the last.
While it is frustrating to watch as a fan, I would rather see the Cards young relievers like Perez, mcclellan, Mark Worrell, Parisi and others get a shot and take their lumps now than trading away valuable prospects for a rental fix for the pen and/or singing a high dollar free agent to “fix” the pen.
im not against signing Relief pitchers in the offseason
Instead of going inhouse. Franklin and Springer have really worked out.
This is a mistake
Garcia is not ready. The Cards are better off leaving him in the pen at the ML level for the rest of this season if they want to get something out of him for the major league club.
Interesting.....
Hopefully it’ll only be for a few starts, and he’ll perform well. I just don’t think he’s ready to be an every 5th day starter in the bigs yet.
Won’t matter though, if management doesn’t do something to improve the team for the 2nd half. Might as well let the kids play.
by SoonerfanTU on Jul 13, 2008 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
They'll need three # 5 starts
before the first off day (Aug 4th) when Garcia could be skipped. Then it may be time for Wainwright to return. Otherwise, we’ll need a fifth starter for two times in August before a bunch of off days start in mid to late august.
lboros
thankfully this has nothing to do with the loss.
can you update the Future Redbirds link? i usually just follow it on over there after reading the post here, but alas they have moved and i now have to click twice (and i’m that lazy that i’d rather only have to click once).
"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon
It will be fixed
by them soon enough.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 13, 2008 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I still don't know
As a web designer I am not actually sure why they moved from .com to .net. I understood they updated their site but my guess is maybe they are moving hosts too
by FlimtotheFlam on Jul 13, 2008 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice perspective
LB. I just hope this an impetus for Mo’ and the Cards to go out and do something real hasty.
The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!
and reactionary
and out of desperation – preferably.
Um I meant this isn't an impetus...
Sorry, but an nice as this season has been I don’t want to sacrifice ‘09 or ‘10 for a rental.
The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!
solutions?
i hate to look like a knee-jerking, desperate, reactionary type, but how does this sound;
we put azruavatar and brian barton in a room together until they invent a time machine. provide increasing incentives for them to work quickly and efficiently, such as empty promises of great reward, threats of bodily harm, etc. go back in time and pick up izzy from a good year, take your pick, replace current izzy and say he “fixed his mechanics”. go waay back and kidnap rogers hornsby, solving our middle infield problem in one swoop, claim we signed him from an obscure independent league team, and find a convincing pseudonym for him such as dogers dornsby, barack obama, whatever. finally, pick up early 2006 albert, on pace to hit 273 homeruns, and claim he’s a long lost twin brother who plays left field in a dominican village. i’m pretty sure this will stabilize things somewhat.
i think most cardinals fans would find cheating with time travel more ethical
not that they’d be correct, but i don’t want a fan revolt on our hands.
what's the difference between Bonds and Franklin?
Oh yeah, Franklin has actually tested positive for steriods.
but you are right
A lot of fans would hate it. Even more so if he struggles for a week or so. But look at this lineup
Kennedy – 2nd
Ludwick – RF
Pujols – 1st
Bonds – LF
Glaus – 3B
Ankiel – CF
Molina – C
Pitcher – Pitcher
Izturis – SS
Without sacrificing top prospects...isn't there starting pitcher (ala Piniero or Welly)
who can be had? This sounds like a much better idea than a “rent a pitcher”. Wainwright might be of more value out of the bullpen this season…If you think this season is worth salvaging. I agree that we don’t need to go after some pricey overvalued closer but another decent/inexpensive starter may really help.
mattnj
someone mentioned
in one of the diaries…kei igawa. this is actually a decent solution. he hasn’t amounted to much in new york (lotta pressure to be new yorks lesser version of Dice-K) but i think a move to the NL might help him regain the form he had in japan. he is still 30 or 31 and is locked up til 2011 at about 4 mil. a year. pretty decent contract.
I owe somebody 499 million internet dollars from last night
I said we would play a b lineup today if we won last night. Oh wait, we didn’t win so I guess I don’t owe the money
by hoofhearted-pujols on Jul 13, 2008 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
my calculation
is we are 8-12 in games where we blew saves
losses 4-1 4-17 4-25 5-7 5-9 5-15 6-5 6-18 6-22 6-25 6-26 7-12
wins 4-12 4-21 5-2 5-5 5-10 5-17 6-15 7-2
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