Why not sell?
by greenwichvillagecard on Jul 10, 2008 6:16 PM EDT
32 comments
There I said it. Although I've been thinking that we should sell since Wainwright went down, I promised I wouldn't suggest it until we were in third place.
1) Does anybody believe without hesitation that Wainwright and Carpenter will be back in the first week of August, especially considering management's track record with injuries? Even if they do return, how effective will they be? That Boddicker comparison scares me. Wouldn't it be prudent to shut them down until 2009?
2) Milwaukee's schedule is far more favorable. Nobody talks about this, but it seems like a problem.
3)Welley is shakey.
4)It is imperative that we sell an OF with Rasmus coming up. lboros is right that Schu's cost is too good to pass up. However, maybe its time to sell Ludwick if we can get a strong MI back. At the least, play Duncan and hopefully his value could improve. Our outfield sucks against LHP (Ank has a 270 OBP, Schu is hitting about .210, Ludwick's career reverse split is well known and Duncan is Duncan). TLR won't even play Mather, but maybe he will against Duke or Doumit.
5)TLR wants a bat, but lboros is right again. Unless that bat is named Ellis or Kinsler, I don't see where it would fit. Getting the Rock's LF, or for that matter, LHP will likely cost too much.
I know its human nature to want to win now, but I wouldn't risk the farm for AJ, Bedard or even Wolf. And please no Bonds. Please...I know he's ready in 10 days apparently but that would be awful.
Sorry to be so cynical
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i'd sell an OF for MI or pitching...
... but that’s no surprise. everybody’s been saying that since the end of last season. i just don’t think there are many deals out there to be made.
Logically it makes sense...
And honestly, I think that’s what Mo is doing, he’s not going to make a move, then at the deadline, when the Cards are clearly out of it, he will sell.
But, it upsets both the players and the fanbase. At least for the latter, the ones that make noise on the internet and radio shows.
But when it comes to players, it might make them more difficult to re-sign, or just sign in the first place, with regards to free agents. More and more players sign in places they want to play, not so much the most money. The Cardinals will never likely outbid anyone, either (except perhaps on bad middle infielders)
Interesting
More and more players sign in places they want to play, not so much the most money.
The entire NBA offseason is proving that quote to be a fallacy. St. Louis has been fortunate in that certain players (McGwire, Pujols) decided to stay in St. Louis for probably less than market value, but they are not the exceptions that prove the rule. Money is always a key factor for any free agent, and more so in baseball because all the contracts are guaranteed.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Except for San Diego.
They’re the only team I know of where players routinely go for below market money, Randy Wolf being the most recent.
TLR will revolt
I understand your logic, although I’d wait until closer to the deadline to do it (just to see if they start winning series again), but I’d be all for selling off spare parts if they bring any value in return whatsoever.
This team really isn’t constructed for this year, it’s for 09 and beyond.
http://www.theticketguys.com
It would be really interesting to see
what the market for TLR would be if he took his ball and went home. How many $100+million payrolls are there west of the Mississippi? I think he will whine and pout, but he won’t leave. I don’t think anybody else believes me, as I have absolutely no evidence, but I think he wants to manage until he passes John McGraw. That is the true reason he has always wanted to “win now”.
I wonder if it is possible for TLR to depart and Duncan to stay behind? Duncan is the better part of that duo anyway.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
To Sell or Not To Sell, That Is The Question
Right now, I wouldn’t go on a full bore sell. I would, however, shop Kyle Lohse and Ryan Ludwick around the league. If someone out there wants to give up a blue chip prospect for them, then you would have to consider it. Put Wellemeyer on the DL, shut Carp and Wainwright down for the rest of the season, since by the time they get back, we’ll probably be out of the race. If come deadline time comes and we are out of the race, I’d go ahead and trade some pieces for the right deal. LaRussa would probably have a cow, but I honestly don’t care. He did come out shortly after the Harden and Sabathia deals to whatever it takes to stay in the race, but I don’t think Mozeliak really cares was LaRussa thinks. This team isn’t constructed to win this year, maybe next year, but ‘10 is our year. Just looking at some suitors for a couple of our players.
Kyle Lohse: TB, CHW, LAA, PHI, ATL
Ryan Ludwick: TB, LAD
I really think Lohse could get fetch us a pretty good deal. A deal centered around McGee/Davis (TB), Getz/Broadway (CHW), Adenhart/Kendrick (LAA), Schafer/Lillibridge (ATL).
If Atlanta offerd Schafer and Lillibridge for Lohse, Thompson, and someone else, I’d probably do that deal.
I heard the Tampa SS (not the recent draftpick-the other one) might not have the glove and will be moved to the OF
Otherwise that would be a logical choice, no? They need a RH OF too. Maybe we can convince them that Lud’s reverse split is an aberration.
by greenwichvillagecard on Jul 10, 2008 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I would consider selling Glaus too
if you are truly getting into sell mode.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
I would sell Duncan for
“A single plum, floating in perfume, served in a man’s hat.”
Bonus points if you can tell me where that came from.
I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. ~Bill Veeck
Simpsons? What size hat by the way? Might be key in assessing Duncan's value
An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.
HL Mencken
There is a new wrinkle to this, though
and that was LaRussa’s words that he had ‘the clubhouses backing’ in asking for help.
If Mozeliak sits on his hands while the current roster is asking for help, he will burn a considerable number of bridges. That could be a problem when guys like Ankiel, Pujols, etc become FA in the coming years. If the GM won’t make moves to help them win when they have a chance to, they won’t stick around to rebuild.
Starting the season, it was all about these guys believing in their abilities and performing to show they belonged. Now, they are asking for help to make it the rest of the way. If Mo turns a def ear, not only will we have the same problems with Jocketty at the end (management divisions) but the roster will be against management too.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 10, 2008 7:34 PM EDT reply actions
That's a good point
I know that’s TLR’s sentiment, but he actually said that? All I heard was speculation that Hayes heard players openly asking about Holliday? Aside, from Ellis, Kinsler and Roberts—what would help right now? Or are the Cards looking for 13 starts from Burnett? The market isn’t that liquid for bats. Sure, go ahead and trade Anderson, an OF, and Garcia…
What are you going to get?
Our OF is already pretty productive.
by greenwichvillagecard on Jul 10, 2008 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions
3rd best record in the NL...
and to be honest 4.5 GB isn’t that much, even if the Cubs are the team in first. I still think we have a good shot at contending. I would much rather become a buyer than a seller at this point.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it."- Rogers Hornsby
4.5 is nothing
do people forget their baseball history? It isn’t like the Cubs have this wrapped up already. I have to go way back to remember such an epic collapse. All the way back to the 07 Mets.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jul 10, 2008 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions
absolutely agree
IMHO the idea of “buyers” and “sellers” is silly. A GM should always be in the mindset of “what can I do to improve my team”, now, AND long-term. Every season, every GM should be in “buying” AND “selling” mode every day of the season and especially close to the deadline. Sometimes the best way to set yourself up for a run in ‘09 is to be a “buyer” at the ‘08 deadline. Just gotta buy the right guys.
In our case, right now, we have a lot to sell, and only a few positions to fill. Mo has done a great job so far, and hopefully he’ll do a good job of filling those last few positions. Maybe we can do something trivial to get Edgar V Gonzales back from SDP…
"If thats bad luck, lets DFA our luck away." -DriverZN
I agree on EVG
but I am assuming you mean to play for the big club, not Memphis like last year ;~)
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Not giving him a september callup
was unforgivable, and would have been, alone imho, 100% justifiable cause for terminating WJ if I was Bill DeWitt.
"If thats bad luck, lets DFA our luck away." -DriverZN
that blew my mind at the time
was EVG’s defense really that bad that he wasn’t worth giving a shot with the second base mess last year? That was the only reason I heard that came close to making any sense. I like Miles and all, but if you can take his D at short, you should have been willing to give EVG a chance at second.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jul 11, 2008 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
he was considered to be the worst defensive infielder in the minors
but he’s done fine for the Padres so far, one error in 257 innings and an RZR over .900.
"If thats bad luck, lets DFA our luck away." -DriverZN
It could be a bad move
but you seriously can’t sell when you’re only a couple games out of the wild card. it definitely sends a terrible signal to your club, but more importantly, it amounts to stealing defeat from the jaws of victory. Of course that doesn’t mean you should be a buyer either. Mo should stay the course and make a reasonable move for an arm if it’s available.
not yet
yes i would sell duncan for 17 maple bats or whatever that other guys was traded for but seriously based on this year alone rasmus is hitting .249 and don’t get me wrong he will be a stud in the outfield for the next 6 years but currently he’s not tearing up triple A and Holliday is signed through ‘09 so get him through then because i believe you can get him without giving rasmus, possibly for garcia and another pitcher or prospect therefore getting him would allow rasmus another year to develop and work him into the pros next year and then if ludwick doesn’t stay on this pace or repeat next year you have him as a solid 4th ourfielder with holliday in left for ‘09 Rasmus in Center eventually and then Ankiel in Right once rasmus is ready to take center
we are only 1/2 game back in wild card and you can’t forget the Cubs are the Cubs so its not time to sell
that might have been the longest sentence ever written.
139 words? Am I mis-counting?
"If thats bad luck, lets DFA our luck away." -DriverZN
Why
would the Rockies trade their best outfielder, best player, and only All-Star, and not get an outfield prospect in return? That’s ludicrous. They’d be justified in asking for Rasmus, Jay, and 2 pitching prospects for him considering he’s signed through 2009. He’s more valuable at this time than Tejada was at the time of his trade, and the Orioles got 4 players for him and the Astros best two prospects.
If you factor out injuries, nobody really gets fleeced anymore—there’s too much good information on players to make a completely one-sided trade.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Chris Duncan
I really think that Duncan’s bat would come back if he were to go to AAA and play 1B and focus on his bat. I really think him working on his defense hard has cheated his bat. Just a theory.
The book...
Pitching him down and away, down and away, down and away etc. with junk certainly hasnt helped his bat either. You cant hit what you cant hit, and they know what Duncan cant hit.
by cardschinmusic on Jul 11, 2008 4:18 AM EDT up reply actions
+1
virtually all of his semi-recent success has been on “mistake” pitches on the inside part of the plate. I swear he used to be able to drive the pitch away to the opposite field, but now it is either popped up or flared to the left side.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
sell high
Thats how the Yankees and A’s built up great franchises, sell while the players have reached their peak in value so you can maxamize you return. Ludwick is my boy but if he could net us a couple high rated prospects, why not? I dont think the Cards can hang their in the long run.
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