Lohse

by fzeballer15 on Jul 1, 2008 1:42 PM EDT

Who else is in the running to start the all-star game besides him and why shouldn't he get the start for the NL

2nd in winning% and tied for 2nd in the NL for wins + a solid ERA

My top four guys in the race for the all-star starting role is Lohse, Webb, Volquez, and Lincecum. If not Lohse now, then what must he do in his last couple starts or is there no chance?

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Dempster

I know we’re all Cardinals fans here, but Dempster deserves to be added to that list. I’d also throw Peavy on there. His numbers have been slightly affected by injury, but he’s been dominant in the few games he’s played—and for a bad team too.

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on Jul 1, 2008 1:56 PM EDT 0 recs

and also

to answer your question, I really think he’s deserving too. But if he can add another win, it’s going to be damn near impossible to resist adding an 11 game winner to the team.

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on Jul 1, 2008 2:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

lincecum

no disrespect to lohse, lincecum should be starting the all star game. Although he plays for a subpar team in san fran, he has some of if not the best stuff in the majors and it is fun to watch him pitch

by thenextgen on Jul 1, 2008 2:28 PM EDT 0 recs

Volquez

He is 10-3 with a 2.08 ERA, and has only allowed more than 3 earned runs in one start, and he has a K/9 of 9.77.

The Dusty Path to the World Series!*

*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.

by justin007000 on Jul 1, 2008 2:35 PM EDT 0 recs

Volquez

NL Leaders in Adjusted ERA+

Volquez-CIN 214
Lincecum-SFG 179
Haren-ARI 158
Sheets-MIL 152
Zambrano-CHC 143

He has 10 wins and leads the NL in ERA and Ks/9IP. He is second in overall Ks.

Whether he is this good permanently is up for debate, but if there is any justice, he starts for the NL.

by Huck Finn on Jul 1, 2008 2:36 PM EDT 0 recs

I'd put them in this order:

Lincecum – 9-1, 2.38 ERA, 114K’s in 106.2 innings
Volquez – 10-3, 2.08 ERA, 110K’s in 99.1 innings
Sheets – 9-2, 2.83 ERA, 91K’s in 111.1 innings
Webb – 12-4, 3.21 ERA, 94K’s in 112 innings
Haren – 8-4, 2.85 ERA, 96K’s in 110.2 innings
Lohse – 10-2, 3.67 ERA, 50K’s in 105.1 innigs

Lohse would have to pitch as well in his next two starts, and get the win in both to make the team. I don’t see how he could be the starter. Lincecum and Volquez are neck and neck IMO. Zambrano could sneak back into the picture if he comes off the DL in time to make two starts.

by cardzfanbub on Jul 1, 2008 2:52 PM EDT 0 recs

I would flip Number 1 with number 2...

and also add relievers Brad Lidge, Matt Capps, and John Rauch. Yeah, even though the last two just blew saves-both are having a really nice season.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Jul 1, 2008 4:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

Volquez is perhaps a little better...

but I prefer Lincecum, and he’s been doing it a tad longer at this level. For some reason W-L records still seem to be primary for these decisions. Those two could go either way based on their next starts.

How ‘bout the season Lidge is putting together…adds a little credence to that change of scenery theory…

by cardzfanbub on Jul 2, 2008 9:11 AM EDT up 0 recs

Lidge has been as dominant as, well, I can't even remember anyone keeping this up

this late into the season. He always had great stuff, and even his down years were better than some relievers up years. He’s certainly been a big part of the Phillies success. Maybe he just needed someone to believe in him. It can’t help but boost confidence IMO when you know the team you’re on actually wants you around. He just had to do the rest. Can’t hurt to have a pitching coach named Dubee either…..

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Jul 2, 2008 10:54 AM EDT up 0 recs

It ALSO can't hurt

not to face Albert regularly! I don’t care what anybody says, seeing the guy who took your best pitch 500 feet out can’t help your confidence…

"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra

by The Ol Goaler on Jul 2, 2008 10:57 AM EDT up 0 recs

Sure it helps.....

but I bet with the kind of season Lidge is having he’d say “bring him on”—Ha! #5 would probably still take him deep…..

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Jul 2, 2008 11:00 AM EDT up 0 recs

we'll see next week

cards-phils, citizens bank park, july 8-10.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on Jul 2, 2008 11:34 AM EDT up 0 recs

I like Lohse as much as the next guy

But it’s simply not objective to say that he should be starting the All-Star game. He may not even be a deserving member of the staff.

Volquez, Haren, Lincecum, Sheets, Peavy, Webb, Hamels, and Dempster. Hudson? Billingsley? I mean, really, Lohse has a lot of wins and that’s about it. His ERA is good but not great. I’m happy with what he’s done, but he’s only a borderline All-Star and he’s definitely, DEFINITELY not the NL’s starting pitcher.

by mojowo11 on Jul 1, 2008 4:46 PM EDT 0 recs

+1 mojo.........

by ICbirdfan on Jul 1, 2008 5:11 PM EDT up 0 recs

definitely not starting

but more deserving than Hudson and Billingsley.

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on Jul 1, 2008 9:53 PM EDT up 0 recs

also

along with those wins, make sure to note how LITTLE losses he has. That’s a pretty big selling point considering how many games he’s pitched.

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on Jul 1, 2008 9:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

What?

Stop. Grading. Pitchers. On. Wins. This is the most infuriating thing ever.

Let’s play a game. It’s called Who’s Getting Better Run Support? I’ll give you some ERAs and some W/L numbers, and you tell me which starter you think is getting the best run support. Here we go:

Hudson: 8-6, 3.31 ERA
Lohse: 10-2, 3.67 ERA
Billingsley: 7-7, 3.38 ERA
Hamels: 8-5, 3.38

Give up? Here are the results!

Lohse: 5.03
Hamels: 4.88
Hudson: 4.41
Billingsley: 4.22

When a pitcher is doing a better job of preventing runs but has a worse W-L record/percentage and you say that the pitcher with the better W/L numbers is having a better year, what you are doing-quite literally-is grading pitchers based on how potent their team’s offense/bullpen are. That’s what you’re doing. You’re grading a pitcher on the rest of the pitcher’s team, and not at all on their own performances relative to one another. It makes NO SENSE.

W/L is not a good statistic. It serves only as a sort of general indicator—if a pitcher is pitching well, he will PROBABLY (but not necessarily) have a good record. If he is pitching poorly he will PROBABLY (but not necessarily) have a bad record. But that’s it. That’s as much as you can infer from W/L.

A pitcher’s job is to prevent runs. That’s all they can do. Grade them on how well they do that. Don’t grade them on anything else, otherwise you end up doing stupid things like picking this line:

21-5, 2.83 ERA (5.51 runs of support)

...over this line…

13-8, 1.87 ERA (3.58 runs of support)

...for the 2005 Cy Young Award.

by mojowo11 on Jul 1, 2008 10:47 PM EDT up 0 recs

I have also heard ERA is bad stat

the former had 4 shutouts, the latter none
the former started 241 innings in 33 starts, the latter had 211 in 32 (who went deeper in games?)
the former had 213 Ks, the latter 185

people can twist stats in more ways than just one

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Jul 1, 2008 11:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

You can "twist" stats, but then someone retorts

For the innings pitched thing: I don’t know what four/four you’re talking about, so I can’t really comment. Second, why are we breaking this up into two teams of four? Aren’t we just comparing people against Lohse? I will say that going further in games is only good to an extent—take the 2005 Cy Young race as I posted above. Do you want 242 innings of 2.83 ball or 211 innings of 1.87 ball? I’ll take the latter, no question. Innings pitched is nice as a sort of tiebreaker, but that’s usually about it.

Striking more people out but allowing more runs is…bad. Striking people out is good because it helps you prevent people from scoring effectively, but it hardly matters if you’re still letting more people score.

And, really, shutouts? Really? Another counting stat? Shutouts are nice. But ERA stands for Earned Run Average —meaning it’s an AVERAGE. Hell, Braden Looper has a shutout, should we sign him up for the All-Star team? And what’s better, he’s got 9 wins! That’s only one less than Lohse! More than Hudson, Billingsley, or Hamels! VOTE LOOPER!

Wait, no, Looper has a 4.26 ERA. Huh. Funny how that just shoots your chances to hell.

And you’re right, ERA is flawed to a degree (though not nearly as much as W/L). A better stat than ERA is FIP:

Billingsley: 3.42
Hamels: 3.69
Hudson: 3.88
Lohse: 3.89
Looper: 4.46

So…Hudson has been almost exactly as good as Lohse, negligibly better. I don’t hear any cries for Hudson to make the All-Star team, let alone start the game. He certainly deserves as much consideration, and you’d be hard pressed to explain to me how Lohse has been any better than him, especially since Hudson has a few more innings (see? it only works as a tiebreaker). Meanwhile, Hamels and Billingsley both show up better than Lohse (again). Surprise, surprise. I threw Looper in there for fun.

by mojowo11 on Jul 2, 2008 12:06 AM EDT up 0 recs

the innings thing

it does make a bit of a difference to have more innings at a low ERA. those extra 30 innings carp had in ‘05 had to be made up for clemens by somebody in the ‘stros bullpen… and despite the 3.65 overall ‘pen ERA, those innings were likely not covered by the lidge/wheeler/qualls trio, so the extra innings were probably in the 4.00-4.50 range. adding in the difference in innings at that ERA, that would raise clemens’ ERA to around 2.15-2.20. yeah, still better than carp’s, but the difference is about half of what it was before.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on Jul 2, 2008 10:06 AM EDT up 0 recs

Mojo

this is about getting cardinal players on the all star team, not your sexual preferences. You sound a bit like a professional. Whats your agenda. Lohse should be 13-4.

Westcoastbirdwatcher

by westcoastbirdwatcher on Jul 2, 2008 7:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

I admit I haven't a clue what you're getting at here

You make me sound like a superagent who’s still in the closet or something.

by mojowo11 on Jul 3, 2008 10:10 AM EDT up 0 recs

yeah, my comment was all about the Carp/Clemens comparisons

all the rest is just a bunch of filler to me.
You like some stats, some other people like others. I really don’t care.
I just don’t like the use of CAPS LIKE THIS. IT MAKES IT SEEM LIKE YOU ARE YELLING AT SOMEONE TO TRY TO PROVE YOUR POINT!

Get over it. We can disagree, no?

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Jul 2, 2008 8:11 PM EDT up 0 recs

My apologies about the caps

I let myself get worked up sometimes. I was yelling in my head, actually.

I just can’t stand people using W/L as an indicator of talent. It just blows my mind that people evaluate pitchers on anything other than what is in their control.

I’m not sure saying that I like some stats and you like some stats is really a viable thing to say since not all stats are equal (logically/scientifically speaking) but whatever. I’ll drop it.

by mojowo11 on Jul 3, 2008 10:01 AM EDT up 0 recs

sheesh

calm down, son. I’m not grading pitchers on wins and I never said I was. I said lack of losses is a telling stat, not wins. I only brought up wins because you said “Lohse has a lot of wins and that’s about it.” I was just confirming your statement. By having very few losses, it shows that he keeps his team in a position to win no matter how high or low scoring the game is.

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on Jul 1, 2008 11:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

No no no

Measuring by losses is no different than measuring by wins. Just as you can get a win in game where your team wins 122-121 and you give up 120 earned runs, you can get a loss when your team doesn’t manage to score and you pitch an Anthony-Reyes-against-the-White-Sox complete game 1-hitter that happened to be a homer to Jim Thome (a game I was at…heartbreaking). Are you saying Anthony didn’t do everything he could to keep his team in a position to win? Because, maybe it’s just me, but I think a 1.00 ERA over 9 IP is awfully good, and 0 runs of support is pretty bad. But he got a loss, so that shows…that he didn’t keep his team in a position to win?

Losses are as heavily dependent on your team’s offense as wins are. I cite, again, the 2005 Clemens season. These are some of the losses he took that year (final game score in parentheses):

7 IP, 3 ER (3-2)
8 IP, 2 ER (9-0)
7 IP, 3 R, 1 ER (3-0)
8 IP, 2 ER (2-0)

That’s half of his losses that year. Half! You seriously think losses are a good indicator of a pitcher’s ability, how well he’s pitching, or anything else?

Losses are even more ridiculous than wins in a way, because you can get absolutely demolished and you won’t get saddled with a loss if your team rallies back to tie the game. Like these no-decisions for Lohse this year:

4 IP, 5 ER (7-8)
4 IP, 4 ER (8-9)

Losses are just as bad as wins. You’re still grading a pitcher heavily on his offense.

by mojowo11 on Jul 2, 2008 12:20 AM EDT up 0 recs

cy young

i know we’re all biased here, but i don’t have a huge issue with the 05 cy young award.

2005 carpenter FIP: 2.86 on a 100-win team, 213 Ks (second only to peavy’s 216), 7 CGs (led league), not a dick
2005 clemens FIP: 2.76 on an 89-win team, 185 Ks, 1 CG

i am cherrypicking, but still. IMO, one can shrink that contrast you presented at the end of your post. both pitchers had outstanding years and we have to expect to see SOME attention paid to counting stats (including wins) for every cy young. award voting has been a lot worse!

by baw on Jul 2, 2008 10:12 AM EDT up 0 recs

i think if lohse has a couple more great outings, he should make the team

but the discussion for who should start the game begins and ends with lincecum and volquez, in my opinion.

by djones9 on Jul 1, 2008 5:32 PM EDT 0 recs

When do they make the decision for pitchers?

I can never remember, but one would think that it is at least a week or two before the game, which won’t give him much more time to make a “couple more great outings”.

Prospects are good. Especially when they aren't rushed.

by CraveCase on Jul 1, 2008 6:33 PM EDT up 0 recs

good point -- i actually have no idea when the final decision's made.

two weeks before the game seems long, but one week seems fairly reasonable. as far as deciding who starts, that obviously can happen anytime. last year, leyland didn’t decide that haren would start until the day before the game.

by djones9 on Jul 1, 2008 6:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

Days rest schedule

lines up with the game being on his pitching day. (July 5 v Cubs, July 10 v Phillies, July 15 AllStar game). OTOH I’d rather have him pitching to start the 2nd half of the season than start the all star game.

Something else to think about. Will the cards get two all stars with none elected and the “one rep per team requirement”?

by ubeddie on Jul 1, 2008 11:24 PM EDT 0 recs

They SHOULD...

...but probably won’t (my “cynic” setting is high today). I’m guessing Pujols and that’s it… since the ASG “counts” (damn you, Bud Selig!) the manager is best off taking a few starters and ALL the effective closers (Lidge, Wagner, Capps, Wood, Wilson) to shut down the opposition and win the freakin’ game.

Me, I’d take Yadi to sub in late in the game to take the stolen base away…

"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra

by The Ol Goaler on Jul 2, 2008 11:08 AM EDT up 0 recs

Well...

...You could make an argument that he should be on the team based on the fact that the Cards have had one of the better rotations in the NL and the fact that Waino and Welle aren’t really healthy so someone has to go…I mean, that’s not a good argument, but its within the ballpark of one.

Starter? Hell no. Edinson Volquez and Tim Lincecum have been one and two all season. Those guys are just nasty. Lohse is having a nice season for a good team that scores him a decent number of runs and plays really good defense. Volquez and Lincecum are posting Cy Young-caliber seasons for bad ones that don’t really do one or both of those things. It’s one of those two guys, no questions asked.

"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.

by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 2, 2008 2:38 AM EDT 0 recs

Are the Cards going to re-sign Lohse?

I don’t reside in St. Louis and get all the rumors and scoops, but I am tired of losing starting pitchers each year to free agency. I just hope management opens their wallets and gives this man another contract. He’s earned it.

by ccthemovieman on Jul 4, 2008 7:54 PM EDT 0 recs

It seems unlikely

Lohse’s agent is Scott Boras, who strongly encourages his clients to go to free agency to maximize their income. In a FA setting, the Cardinals probably wouldn’t have a competitive offer. It’s stupid, I know. But until more players start telling Boras he works for them, and not the reverse, this idiocy will persist.

by Red in Chicago on Jul 5, 2008 3:47 PM EDT up 0 recs