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july 1 miscellany

baseball . . . . go figure. despite playing without albert pujols for most of the month, the cardinals led the national league in runs scored during june, at 136 --- 5 runs a game, their best month this year by a longshot. they finished 2nd in the league in slugging, a category in which they’d ranked 9th in the league during the first two months; their 36 homers were good for 3d in the nl during june (they had been 10th in the league heading into the month). even their luck turned around: the cards recorded the league’s second-highest reached-on-errors total during june (13), a category in which they had ranked dead last during the first two months. maybe opposing defenses stopped paying attention w/ pujols out of the lineup. . . . . so the cards reach the (more or less) halfway point in the season ranked 4th in the nl in runs, 5th in slugging, and 2nd in obp.

the starting rotation also thrived without its leader in june --- actually, without its two best pitchers, as wellemeyer and wainwright combined to make only 5 starts during the month, throwing just over 28 innings. st louis starters ranked 3d in the league in era for the month anyway. good starting pitching, good run support --- with a competent month from the bullpen, the cards might have flagged down the cubs. here’s a stat that’ll break your heart: the cards led 16 games during june after 7 innings, and were tied in another 4; they only trailed 7 times. if they’d held all the leads and split the ties, they would’ve gone 18-9 during june and passed the cubs --- with pujols and wainwright both out for most of the month. whatever; can’t blame izzy this time. . . . . the cards enter july ranked 6th in the league in era. they have allowed the 2d fewest walks in the league and the 4th fewest homers; the defense takes care of the rest.

one other statistical oddity i noticed while fishing around this morning: despite batting the pitcher 8th, the cardinals rank 11th in the league in OPS out of that batting-order slot. one of the teams below them, milwaukee, also bats the pitcher 8th --- but 4 of the clubs below the cardinals are using position players in the 8 hole, and still getting less offense. it gets better: the cardinals rank 4th in the league (!) in isolated power out of the #8 slot. . . . on the other hand, out of the #9 hole they only rank 5th in the league in ISO --- milwaukee is batting jason kendall there, so no surprise that they are ahead of the cards, but chicago, arizona, and washington all get more sock from their (mostly) pitchers than the cards do from iz2 / kennedy / ryan.

turning to last night’s game: kyle lohse dusted off his curveball, throwing it 21 times against the mets --- 20 percent of his pitches. early in the year duncan talked about wanting lohse to make better use of his curve, a pretty good pitch that kyle had stopped throwing over the years. in 2005-06 it virtually disappeared from his repertoire. he started using it again last year as an auxiliary pitch, and in the first month of 2008 he heeded duncan’s advice and began to throw it regularly --- it accounted for almost 10 percent of his pitches in april. for whatever reason he junked it in may --- just 4 percent of his pitches --- and before last night he had thrown the curve just 3.7 percent of the time during june. (thank you fangraphs for all that data.) but last night lohse used the bender to great effect: threw it for strikes 2/3 of the time and got 4 outs on it without allowing a base hit.

i was glad to see the homer by duncan, but i think he got a little too excited about it. his next time up, apparently trying to hit another one, he took 2 gigantic swings at pitches out of the zone and got himself out; in the at-bat after that (against heilmann) he whiffed at another bad pitch before regaining his discipline. a big component of duncan’s mini-rally --- .856 ops in the last 10 days, dating back to the start of the interleague trip --- has been improved discipline at the plate: he has walked 7 times (one intentional) in his last 34 plate appearances. to draw his previous 7 walks, it had taken duncan 99 plate appearances, nearly 3 times as many; he was flailing at everything. the homer wasn’t all that impressive, and duncan is still anything but "fixed" --- he did strike out twice last night --- but any contribution from that quarter is welcome.

ditto mulder. he threw strikes (10 out of 14 pitches), and he threw with more velocity than we’ve ever seen from him in st louis --- nearly every pitch was a fastball (12 of 14), and all but one reached or exceeded 90 mph according to pitch fX, with a max of 92 (attained 5 times). he even threw a fastball past somebody, ramon castro, to get a strikeout on a 3-2 pitch. i’d be the last guy to get excited about his performance --- indeed, just to be a jerk i’ll point out that mulder’s first inning back from surgery last year also was scoreless (1 hit, no walks), and he started getting hammered immediately thereafter --- but i have to admit he threw harder and displayed better command than i expected. only one of the 4 balls in play against him was hit on the ground, but with his new arm slot i we shouldn’t expect him to pound the bottom 1/10th of the strike zone the way that he used to; he doesn’t get on top of the ball anymore, and that’s by design. lord only knows how this experiment will turn out; the cards have tried crazier things and had success with them, so maybe this will work out too. here's hoping so. 

the season half over, and still so very much to learn about these cardinals . . . . . .

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More props for VEB

You get a mention in, believe it or not, Maximum PC magazine when the writer mentions his favorite baseball blogs.

by sdrone on Jul 1, 2008 8:54 AM EDT   0 recs

Are we nerds then?

You did say Maximum PC and not Maxim, right?

born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red

by totalloser on Jul 1, 2008 5:58 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Good half season...

I have to admit that I have had a blast watching this team play….more so than other years recently. They seem to hav aquired a bit of a grinder ball mentality—average pitching, good defense, and an order that takes walks will win you a lot of games.

by BigJawnMize on Jul 1, 2008 9:03 AM EDT   0 recs

Steve Phillips

On David Wright’s error that allowed Miles to scamper to second and then be batted in by Pujols, how horrible was Steve Phillips’ analysis? He actually criticized Castillo for not “anticipating” the poor throw and sprinting to the wall to back it up, citing this as the difference between winning and losing baseball. Apparently Castillo’s spidey sense wasn’t tingling, which would have allowed him to anticipate the bad throw. The limping Castillo, running at full speed would never have kept Miles from second. Does ESPN not require their analysts to have anything remotely intelligent or insightful to say as a prerequisite of their being hired?

by bgh on Jul 1, 2008 9:05 AM EDT   0 recs

Ha....

Yeah, while Steve Phillips, Joe Morgan, et al. are pretty horrible, Phillips did make me chuckle a bit when they were discussing concussions and he said something like “I must have had a concussion when I made the deal for Mo Vaughn.”

He is VERY bad (and still somehow convinced that he’s either a GM or will soon be hired as a GM), but that made me laugh.

by goodymobb on Jul 1, 2008 9:17 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

And a second concussion

...when he traded away Kazmir.

Inner Monologue of ESPN Exec: “Steve Phillips brought Mo Vaughn to the Mets and traded away Scott Kazmir. Clearly, his baseball knowledge is marginal and insight nonexistent. He’s in the Joe Morgan mold, though, with a bronzed tan and a perfectly groomed goatee, to boot. Plus, he sounds articulate. Lets hire him. He’ll fool flyover country.”

by bgh on Jul 1, 2008 9:21 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

is he the one who got rid of Kazmir?

I thought they were talking about Kazmir and in that context, it sounded like he wasn’t taking ownership of that turd, er…trade.

Side note, yesterday’s JoeChat on FJM.com was absolutely hilarious.

by goodymobb on Jul 1, 2008 9:23 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No

I believe it was Duquette that traded Kazmir. Phillips did draft David Wright, for what its worth.

"I believe he’s been reincarnated, that he played before, in the twenties and thirties, and he’s back to prove something." - Former teammate Mark McGwire about Albert Pujols

by cardzfan24 on Jul 1, 2008 9:39 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

he was making a point about lack of hustle

he just picked the wrong guy….Ryan Church was way out of position—he should have been backing up the play. Had he been where he’s supposed to be, Miles wouldn’t have taken second because the throw would have gone right where Church would have been covering….

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jul 1, 2008 11:56 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Trade Sidetrack

I thought that I’d get us started on a trade tangent since the P-D is reporting rumor and inuendo from a “national baseball writer” this morning that the Cards are interested in Matt Holliday and Brian Fuentes.

by bgh on Jul 1, 2008 9:07 AM EDT   0 recs

You'd have to be interested in both of those guys

if they could be landed without trading away too much. Holliday is likely to be expensive, but Fuentes may not be, and he plugs the bigger gap. What’s he worth in trade?

by StanTheManFan on Jul 1, 2008 9:17 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I saw that too

I don’t know why we’d be interested in Holiday, to be honest. He’s a good outfielder and a great hitter, even though he’s having a down year this year (for his standards) but that also means he’ll be super-expensive and we already have more outfielders than we know what to do with—all of the young-ish, cost-controlled variety. Don’t get me wrong, I’d like him playing for the Cards, but I suppose there are more pressing needs than improving our already solid outfield.

by Ray Lankford on Jul 1, 2008 9:22 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Actually, so long as.....

The Rox would take back a couple of OF’s (Duncan and ?), the deal would work out just fine.

Wonder what else it would take? Anderson? Craig?

by SoonerfanTU on Jul 1, 2008 9:26 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Dunc oughta do it

Duncan for Holliday and Fuentes. The Rockies know they could flip Duncan to the Giants for Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez. After all, as everyone knows, the Giants are looking for a left-handed first baseman with power.

by mojowo11 on Jul 1, 2008 9:30 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I dunno...

I think we better throw in Kennedy, just to make sure the pot is sweet enough…but we should definitely wait until Iz2 gets back healthy. :)

by stlfan on Jul 1, 2008 9:32 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Maybe

They’d take Mulder too. And maybe Reyes. And maybe a bag of baseball. Well, O’Dowd isn’t quite that dumb. We may have to eat the $35 on that bag of balls.

"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.

by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 1, 2008 6:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I would only be interested in Holliday

if he could still hit 81 games in Coors field.

Career splits: Home – .362/.425/.654, Away – .277/.340/.350
2008 splits: Home – .353/.427/.597, Away – .309/.401/.472
2007 splits: Home – .376/.435/.722, Away – .301/.374/.485

Now if he could signed to a deal that was based on his performance away from Coors then that would be OK, but he is not as sexy as people think. His away splits are only marginally better than Skip Schumaker.

Fuentes is a different matter – bring him on!

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Jul 1, 2008 11:17 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

hmmmmm

those away splits look a lot better than Skip’s actual numbers…so he’d be some kind of improvement. I hate home/road splits—you play more games at your home ball park, so you should hit better there, you’re more comfortable with the surroundings and your eyes pick up things better. Obviously this one is more severe, but he’s still a pretty good player away from home….

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jul 1, 2008 12:02 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

yes but he wont justify the money boras is looking for IMO

cause his numbers will go down when he stops playing at coors 81x a year

by FunkeeC on Jul 1, 2008 12:11 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

so if by chance we actually got holliday

would we bat him in front or behind pujols

"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson

by Bahamaredbird on Jul 1, 2008 12:13 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'd say behind.....

Skip RF
Miles 2B
Pujols 1B
Holliday LF
Ankiel CF
Glaus 3B
Molina C
P
Ryan SS

Looking at that, however, I could see Ankiel hitting 2nd, and Miles towards the bottom. Though the even more I look at it, Holliday 2nd wouldn’t be terrible:

Skip
Holliday
Pujols
Ankiel
Glaus
Molina
Miles
P
Ryan

by SoonerfanTU on Jul 1, 2008 12:58 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

does he bat third with the rox?

"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson

by Bahamaredbird on Jul 1, 2008 1:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I guess you're assuming that

we’d have to trade Ludwick to get him then? If not, I see it looking more like this:

Miles/Ryan
Ludwick
Pujols
Holliday
Ankiel
Glaus
Molina
Pitcher
Ryan/Miles

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jul 1, 2008 1:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

that is a wet dream right there

They say I look like yadier molina

by ANDYAK47 on Jul 1, 2008 2:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

if by an 850 ops for a OF you mean pretty damn good

cant we find some cost controlled players to do a similar job

by FunkeeC on Jul 1, 2008 12:57 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes

Yes we can. A certain Memphis CF comes to mind.

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 1, 2008 1:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

What outfield situation?

Okay, you’d probably have to include one of Ludwick, Skip, or Ankiel in the trade (I’m guessing Ludwick). But, I don’t know.

As for your OF situation, if you are including Ludwick, Ankiel and Skip, you could keep 1 or 2 of them to man right field. If you’re talking about Duncan and Barton, who cares? If you’re talking about Mather and Stavinoha, again who cares?

Not that i think it will ever happen, but an outfield next year of Holliday, Rasmus and Ankiel/Ludwick/Skip (pick one, trade the rest for all I care) is pretty good. Then, if the team still has Barton (and I think we all assume he’ll spend plenty of time in Memphis next year), Mather and Robinson at AAA/MLB backup.

I guess I fail to see what you are asking because I don’t see Ludwick, Ankiel and Skip as long-timers in this outfield. You’re already going to have to move somebody to get Rasmus in the lineup, and I believe Ank and Lud are free agents anyway, right?

by Tackle Box on Jul 1, 2008 3:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Luds stock is pretty high

if he’s a free agent I hope they explore the possibility of trading him

"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson

by Bahamaredbird on Jul 1, 2008 3:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Let me rephrase that

I hope they trade him if we can make the team better for the long haul

"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson

by Bahamaredbird on Jul 1, 2008 3:10 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Also, for a trade to work with Colorado

it’s going to take some of our better prospects (obviously). This include Rasmus, Anderson, Jay, Shane Robinson or Daryl Jones for position players and Garcia/Todd for pitchers.

That is 4 OF’rs and a catcher. We have depth there but not if we deal it for a guy who is putting up Skip’s OPS and will cost us a $100 contract.

Leave the OF as it is if Holliday is the best increase we can hope for and continue to use the cost controlled players we have to fill in the gaps.

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 1, 2008 3:27 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

let me repeat

I DON’T THINK THIS WILL EVER HAPPEN.

But, you said you could get the same production out of Rasmus.

I then said, “what’s wrong with both of them in the outfield?” Pretty much leaving it as that.

You then said, “are we planning on blowing up the outfield situation?”

So, I told you how an outfield would work with having Rasmus AND Holliday in the outifled at the same time. While also saying I DON’T THINK THIS WILL HAPPEN.

Then you freak out telling me we’d have to trade Rasmus+ to get him.

I thought we were talking about Rasmus and Holliday in the same outfield? Why do you insist on changing the “discussion” just to be right and assume I’ll never notice?

And one more time, just so we’re all clear. I DON’T THINK THIS WILL EVER HAPPEN.

by Tackle Box on Jul 1, 2008 3:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

What are you rambling on about?

You created an argument that wasn’t there and then railed against me for changing it?

You said, “Why not have both”. We’d be replacing 2 of our 3 starting OF’ers with Holliday and Rasmus. That would constitute as ‘blowing up’ the current OF situation.

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 1, 2008 3:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Exactly

Why wouldn’t you consider replacing two of Rick Ankiel, Ryan Ludwick, and Skip Schumaker with Matt Holliday and Colby Rasmus? Do you really think having those three aformentioned players in the outfield is not only realistic, but a good idea for next year?

And for the record, I fail to see where I started an argument. I threw out the statement wondering why it would be so wrong to have both Holliday and Rasmus in the same outfield. That’s only creating an argument if another party is looking for that to be the start an argument.

by Tackle Box on Jul 1, 2008 4:08 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Matt Holliday is a defensive downgrade over

those 3 and I don’t see how devoting a ton of money to a guy who is more likely to post an .800 OPS as he is a 1.000 OPS is a better option than continuing to use the cost controlled OF’ers we have now and if they fail, replace them with the depth we have in the system.

Holliday isn’t young, either. He’ll be 29 on Opening Day next year, within 6 months of our current OF crop.

I’m just dubious of an investment to Holliday when the more glarring holes are in the IF. If we wanted to get a player an impact player at the deadline and devote a ton of cash to them, I’d rather it be Dan Uggla and his double digit arbitration contract next year.

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 1, 2008 4:21 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I have absolutley no problem

with focusing on Uggla as opposed to Holliday, and i have yet to lobby for Holliday. If that were the direction the team wanted to go, then I’d be happy.

Just don’t discredit a guy like Matt Holliday because we have depth at Memphis and Springfield. Most of those guys (outside of Rasmus hopefully) will be lucky to out-produce Skip. Holliday has, will and will continue to outproduce all three of our current outfielders for as long as he plays. (the only one’d I’d think could come close is Ludwick, and I’m not sold on his long-term staying power).

As for defense. who cares if he’s better than Ankiel? He won’t be playing center, I’m pretty sure. And while not as fast as Skip, do you really think Ludwick and Skip are so much of an upgrade considering Holliday plays in such a spacious outifled 81 games a year + San Francisco, and PETCO’s outfields about 10 games each a year?

Once again, I’m not lobby for a Holliday trade. But I will say he’d upgrade our lineup immediately.

by Tackle Box on Jul 1, 2008 4:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree

Holiday is an improvement, but how much of an improvement over what we already have? And how much are we going to have to pay (salary and prospects) for this improvement? I think the answers are “slight” and “too much”

by Ray Lankford on Jul 1, 2008 3:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Considering that Skip can't really hit lefties

might be reason enough to consider an upgrade. Comparing Skips RHP heavy stats against Holliday’s overall stats can be slightly misleading.

by Tackle Box on Jul 1, 2008 4:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Current OF stats

Schu – .300/.364/.439
Ank – .259/.334/.509
Lud- .285/.362/.574

Holliday on the road: .309/.401/.472. Except for a couple of points of SLG this is his career best road split. His career numbers are: .277/.340/.450

Looks like a #2 hitter. Away from Coors he has 4 HR and 12 RBI in 142 PAs

All three of our current OFs, plus Glaus hit better on the road. Of the run producers, only El Hombre is doing better at Busch. I am no expert on the performance effects of Busch III and I didn’t bother to find Holliday’s numbers at Busch III, but it looks like there is a chance that Holliday’s road numbers might even be a stretch for his projected performance as a Cardinal. Of course, none of the road parks in his division are particularly hitter friendly, so maybe he will do better than I think.

Not a bad player by any stretch, but not worth any where near Pujols money, not to mention the package it would take to get him. Let’s get hitters who play in pitchers’ parks and pitchers who pitch in hitters’ parks.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Jul 1, 2008 1:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Why are we dismissing Holliday's current year splits

as a small sample size, but we then expect that Ankiel, Ludwick, and Schumaker are going to continue to produce at this same level? Ludwick and Ankiel have been slumping. Schumaker cannot hit LHs. Holliday has produced at a higher level than each of these guys and has done so for a longer period. I think part of the explanation for his road splits is found in comfort, etc. Further, he plays a larger number of his road games in PETCO and Dodger stadium. He crushes the ball in the STL. He is an improvement over all of our current OFs.

No he does not address need at 2B. However, if we get more consitent production out of one of our OF spots(which I believe we would), then it can cover for the weaker MI. That leaves only 2 holes in the line-up and the Kennedy/Miles tandem has been decent at 2B and Izturis’ D makes him valuable to help improve the overall team defense.

Holliday is under contract for next year. We will have money freeing up in the next couple of years(Glaus, Mulder, Encarnacion, and Kennedy that I can think of off the top of my head). We can make a run at signing him long term and if we fail we get a couple of compensatory picks.

If we could give up a current OF, Anderson, one of Garcia, Mortenson, Boggs, Todd, McClellan for him then I say do it. I might even throw in another mid-level prospect. We still have several cost controlled SPs/RPs, Rasmus, and most of our current OF still in tact. Wy not do it for that? We can recount to many stories of prospects turned busts to not turn them into proven ALL-STARS and near MVPS. This guy finished 2nd in the MVP last year.

by CardFaninTTown on Jul 1, 2008 4:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Ankiel has been showing signs of comming out of his slump.

And again. Why pay Holliday when you can bring up Rasmus?

by Evilfrog on Jul 1, 2008 4:28 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Why not have both

if we can swing a deal for him without giving up Rasmus, we don’t have to rush a player from AAA who has only been hitting at AAA for a month.

by CardFaninTTown on Jul 1, 2008 4:34 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Im not against getting Holliday

So much that Im against giving up anything for him. I still don’t want to see us go on a shopping spree. I’d rather see us fall 1 game short of the wild card this year than to bring in a few high price player at the expense of our farm system.

by Evilfrog on Jul 1, 2008 4:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Fair enough

And I wouldn’t be against getting Uggla, but the Marlins are in it for now and maybe for the season if the Phillies keep tanking. Don’t know that there is an upgrade out there for the MI.

To me Holliday is a proven great player. He has been excellent over the last three seasons. He would be a dynamite player hitting behind Pujols. I wouldn’t decimate the farm system for him and I don’t think his price tag will be as high as some have suggested. I may be wrong, but if we could give up a current OF or Mather, one of our top 5 SP prospects, and Anderson, I would swing the deal. That leaves us Rasmus, 4 SP prospects at AA or higher, we would still have Perez and Motte for the pen. I think that is a no brainer. I dont think the Rockies can command a 4 or 5 prospects for a rental. And if we rent him for a year and a half and he leaves we get compensatory picks.

by CardFaninTTown on Jul 1, 2008 5:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

What do you mean by dismissing his current year splits?

For his career, he’s been less of a hitter on the road than he has been at home.

That is the fear. If he could be a 1.000 OPS hitter once leaving Coors, no one would care what we gave up to get him outside of Rasmus and Todd. The fear is, though, that he is a product of his enviroment.

Look at Kaz Matsui. 2007: H-.864/A-.638. He goes to Houston and guess which hitter he was? 2008: H-.656/A-.697.

Is Matt Holliday a better hitter than Kaz? Of course he is. But the fear, as I said, is that he is a product of his enviroment. .850+ OPS from a corner OF spot? Sounds good. But at what cost?

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 1, 2008 4:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Do you really think Holliday wouldn't improve his ops

moving from playing the majority of his games in Coors, San Fran, PETCO, and Dodger Stadium to Busch, Wrigley, Miller, GAC, Minute Maid and PNC?

by Tackle Box on Jul 1, 2008 4:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

For his career

OPS
Petco – .658
Dodger – .662
ATT – .764
Coors – 1.080
Bank – .798

Busch III – 1.350
PNC – .830
Miller – .892
Enron – .712
GABP- .730
Wrigley – .652

I don’t know what to make of this. His Busch Stadium numbers are ungodly in 11 games.

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 1, 2008 4:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Exactly

I don’t know what to make of it eithe since “his career” takes into account ‘04 and ‘05, which you can basically throw out the window when talking about today’s Matt Holliday. I think we can all agree that he matured or whatever as a hitter and ballplayer beginning in 2006.

by Tackle Box on Jul 1, 2008 4:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'd love to see a park adjusted OPS

for Holliday’s road games. If it was an improvement, I’d be more optimistic but the huge disparity between road and home is too suspicious to me to commit to Holliday. He’d be moving to a rather ‘suppressing’ home park, which would negate any gains he made in the 9 games a year he played in each of those road parks.

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 1, 2008 4:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

There is improvement

in his numbers over his last two year’s road splits versus his career road splits. I am saying we are gambling by saying Schu, Ludwick, and Ankiel will continue to produce at the same level. Holliday is an all-star and a potential MVP player and I think everyone is over-valuing are current players/prospects.

What would Reyes have fetched three years ago? Is there not more risk in counting on prospects to produce than a proven player with 3-4 years of production to base our decision on?

I don’t care what we do one way or the other. There is a limit to how much I would give up for him. However, a look at that line-up is a lot more imposing. We could seriously challenge for the division and that World Series with him added to this line-up. And if we could add Fuentes in the process, then I say we have to try to make it work.

by CardFaninTTown on Jul 1, 2008 4:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

agreed holliday is proven

"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson

by Bahamaredbird on Jul 1, 2008 4:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

way too much

for the differential he provides, looking in my crystal ball that is

If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, perhaps you haven't grasped the situation!

by sportsman on Jul 1, 2008 8:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

as good as Holliday is

He doesn’t seem to be quite the slugger this year as in the past. plus it’s not solving our bigger problem of 2B (unless he wants to start playing 2nd?). sounds like a very costly trade too

strikeouts from left-center

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 1, 2008 2:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Without actually looking it up

and taking into consideration the size of the sample, but I seem to remember Matt Holliday hitting the living shit out of the ball IN St. Louis.

by Tackle Box on Jul 1, 2008 2:10 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

2005-2007 Busch Splits

29 AB, 14H, 5HR – .483 / .545 / 1.138 / 1.683 (avg / obp / slg / ops)

by punditmoi on Jul 1, 2008 2:34 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

People keep saying this...

So I’ll throw two words out there…SAMPLE SIZE. Yeah, he’s hit the holy shit out of the ball in STL. But its been in a whopping 29 AB over 11 games. I wouldn’t put too much stock in the fact that he’s shit-hammered the ball in St. Louis over 29 AB’s and assume he’ll stick forever in the Lou. I think he’s more likely to be a .850-.900 OPS player in St. Louis, likely at the expense of a certain young Memphis outfielder I’d rather not see dumped.

"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.

by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 1, 2008 6:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Thanks for stating sample size

especially since I already did.

by Tackle Box on Jul 1, 2008 7:23 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

it's good to look at the home/road splits

for guys who play in parks like coors, but you have to keep in mind a couple of things. First off, he plays 48 games a year in petco, SF, and LA, three pitchers parks, so the road split is artificially deflated by that. Second, Coors hitters in general suffer from something called the “coors hangover effect”, where they hit worse than their true talent away from coors. There has been a couple of studies into this and afaik no one really knows why it happens, but it does happen. We could expect Holliday to be better than his established “on the road” numbers.

"If thats bad luck, lets DFA our luck away." -DriverZN

by SleepyCA on Jul 1, 2008 4:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs