i wrote this during the evening, and figured i would post it here for some feedback and thoughts.  for my overall grade, i took into consideration the player's ability and ceiling/organizational needs/other talent on board.  i did not take into consideration the cash the players they were looking for.

1. tb ss tim beckham, hs -- in a year that lacked a consensus #1 pick, rays fans will quickly make comparisons to bj upton, drafted w/ the 2nd pick of the 02 draft, who also came up as a shortstop.  beckham isn't quite up to par with bj, (or for that matter, upton,) and he probably won't be in the mlb when he's 19 like the uptons.  he brings an interesting skill set of all 5 tools to the table, and has the highest ceiling among all position players.  the rays do not need any additional help in the infield, but any pitcher here would have been a big reach.  grade: b

2. pit 3b pedro alvarez, vandy -- thought to be the #1 overall pick since 2007, alvarez slumped in his jr. year with a hand injury.  however, he has the most advanced college bat of the 08 class, and he will be able to contribute in pitt. very quickly.  he gives the pirates a power-bat that the buccs desperately need.  grade: a-

3. kc 1b eric hosmer, hs -- extremely solid-around first baseman.  he doesn't quite have the power of smoak in my eyes, but he is an advanced hs hitter and the royals will push him.  1b might not have been the biggest need in kc with billy butler there, but he adds a much needed bat to their lineup.  grade: b-

4.  bal lhp brian matusz, usd -- he is considered the best pitching prospect in the draft, but i do not like his arm action at all. seems to be that he brings his arm extremely far behind his body and it looks like he puts a ton of stress on his shoulder.  its no surprise that he went this far, but he looks like a tremendous risk to me.  i have a feeling he'll follow in the footsteps of bullington, gruler, loewen, sleeth, stauffer, etc.  big name picks who tank.  grade: c-

5.  sf c buster posey, fsu -- not a fan of this pick with smoak on the board.  giants need hitting and posey could provide is a good candidate to hit .300 with 15-20 hrs a year, but this isn't the hitter they want.  i think posey is an extremely solid all-around hitter, but this isn't the right choice.  grade: b-

6. fla c kyle skipworth, hs -- this kid looks to be the real deal with the bat -- extremely smooth swing that reminds me of another lh hs player the marlins drafted -- hermida.  there's always the concern that he won't be able to stay behind the plate, but skipworth is the real deal with the bat. grade: b+

7. cin 1b yonder alonso, miami -- first poor reach of the draft.  this pick makes no sense to me.  alonso is a big, lumbering 1b who can develop power but has no other tools.  the reds already have joey votto at 1b, anyhow.  he's not even the best 1b still on the board.  this pick addresses no needs.  grade: d+

8. chw ss gordon beckham, georgia -- i'm not really sure what to make of this pick.  beckham has been absolutely outstanding w/ wooden bats at the cape, and he's put up eye-popping numbers.  it seems to me that his scouting videos reveal some problems (doesn't use his lower body, extremely upright when he swings.)  i'm guessing that he rolled over a lot of balls in college but an aluminum bat combined with very good athletic ability turned outs in the milb into hits in college.  i have a feeling he'll end up being a 2b in the long run.  sox get an important need with a potent bat.  he's an interesting pick here -- not a ton of projectibility, and i'll be interested to see how he performs this year.  for now.. grade: b-

9. was rhp aaron crow, mizz -- the first thing i noticed was that he has the dreaded "inverted w" w/ his arm action.  i remembered i read the term somewhere on the internet, and i found it on this guy's page:

http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/RethinkingPitching/Essays/DeathToTheInvertedW.html

so i found it interesting when i typed "aaron crow + injury" on google, i found this page, as i had him confused with scheppers for some reason.

http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/ProfessionalPitcherAnalyses/AaronCrow.html

same problem as mark prior, etc. he'll be out of baseball with that injury.  college pitcher is a good pick for the nationals, but this guy is a dud.  grade: d

10. hou c jason castro, stanford -- another early reach of the draft.  castro was supposed to fall to the 2nd half of the first rd.  this pick puzzles me; the astros have towles already, and catching is not the biggest of their needs.  however, castro has a smooth swing, and has the athletic ability to play elsewhere (corner if.)  he doesn't have a ton of power, but he strikes me as a player who can hit .290-15 each year and provide solid defense wherever he goes.  grade: c

11. tex 1b justin smoak, usc (carolina) -- best pick of the day.  smoak has the most powerful bat in the draft, and he will move extremely quickly.  that's really all that needs to be said; he should have been drafted within the first 5 picks.  texas gets an absolute steal with a switch hitter who has the ability to be a #4 hitter for years. grade: a

12. oak 2b jemile weeks, miami -- this is an intriguing pick.  most mock drafts had weeks going in the late 1st rd.  he's destined to be a lead-off batter, and i don't think he'll have any power as he has absolutely no load in his swing.  i don't think this is the place that you want to take weeks, though.  he's about as maxed out physically as he's ever going to be and there isn't a lot of potential for power.  grade: c-

13. stl 3b brett wallace, az st -- the cardinals didn't have a ton to work with at this pick, but they took the best hitter available in the draft.  he's got a very short left-handed swing with the ability to hit a ton of line drives, and he demonstrates great discipline.  good candidate to move very quickly in the draft.  he's not as bad of an athlete as his body may lend people to believe, but his arm is going to lead to a lot of throwing errors, and in a perfect world, he would be suited for 1b.  cardinals are drafting him solely for the bat.  grade: b-

14. min cf aaron hicks, hs -- hicks is a very good athlete with speed to burn, but he has a looooong swing.  this pick is entirely on projectibility right now, and i really don't like it.  twins have a bunch of cfs like gomez, bankston, span, and hicks is a very long ways away from making an impact.  i don't think he's going to be very successful in the pros with such a long swing, but there's plenty of time to tool around with it. grade: c

15. lad rhp ethan martin, hs -- overdraft at 15 as a pitcher, but i love this guy as a hitter, so im surprised that he'll be pitching.  he looks to be more like a thrower than a pitcher right now -- he just rears back and fires.  i haven't been able to get a more than brief glipse at his mechanics.  more to follow on this guy. grade: d+ as a pitcher, b as a hitter

picks #16-30 will be published tomorrow pm.  get ready for overdrafts! (cashner, fields,  perry, hewitt, chisenhall, gutierrez!) and one steal (friedrich!)