Baserunning, and such...
During yesterday's game, they showed a graphic of the '85* Cards vs. the '08 Cards. Admittingly, I could not hear what they were saying because I was at a bar and the sound was muted, but the I think it made the point.
In detail, they pointed to the wide margin between the baserunning stats, or more specifically, the stolen base stats. Let me start with some numbers:
1985 (season total): 314 stolen bases, ranked 1st in NL
2008 (projected total): 64 stolen bases, ranked 12th (dead last) in NL
1985 Stolen Base Leader: Vince Coleman, 110 Total Stolen Bases
2008 Stolen Base Leader (as of 6/28): Cesar Izturis, 6 Stolen Bases
My question, where have all the speedsters gone? In my very non-intensive analysis of the current team, I think the management has foregone speed for power:
1985 Hitting Stats: .264/.336/.379, 87 HRs
2008 Hitting Stats (projected): .273/.350/.420, 162 HRs
Basically, I think we need speed. It's the only thing on the offensive side of the ball that is lacking. I know that's not the focus of many teams anymore, but I look at players like Jose Reyes and Joey Gathright from the Royals (who got two infield hits in one game off the Cardinals) as much bigger impacts than getting a long single, and then getting stuck onbase. Luckily the positions I believer we could upgrade at (2B/SS, LF/RF) have some options for speed.
OR we somehow get LaRussa and Oquendo to start sending some runners.
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The game's just different today.
There aren’t as many stadia with 420’ center field fences that frustrate power hitters. The surfaces are grass, not turf.
And the team is different—we don’t have a Vince Coleman in waiting who just needs the green light. We have some players with reasonable speed, but only one with regular stealing capacity (Barton). I don’t think it’s reasonable to compare the 1985 figures to the 2008 figures, anymore than it’s reasonable to look at 1968 and ask why we can’t get a pitcher to throw a 1.12 ERA over the season. It’s a different game.
That said, we could stand to shake up our game a little bit and put the opposing team on edge more by reminding people we can run. And yes, all you Bartonites out there, Barton does need some more playing time. But nothing we do (and nobody we acquire) is going to make this team a team that steals 150 bases this year.
by tom s. on Jun 29, 2008 12:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yeesh
I look at… Joey Gathright from the Royals (who got two infield hits in one game off the Cardinals) as much bigger impacts than getting a long single, and then getting stuck onbase
You can have your Gathrights. I’ll take well-rounded players with power and enough sense not to run into outs.
by baw on Jun 29, 2008 12:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Host: Bill Whitehouse, Earl, from, uh, Frederick, Maryland, wants to know why you and the Orioles don’t go out and get some more team speed?
Earl Weaver: Team speed? For Christ sake. You get fxxxx dammed little fleas on the fxxxxx bases, getting picked off trying to steal, getting thrown out, taking runs away from you. You get them big cxxx suckers that can hit the fxxxxg ball out of the ball park, and you can’t make any god damned mistakes.
audio link – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWQbN0jFo_k
FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG
by astrostl on Jun 29, 2008 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
heheh thanks for this
it illustrates the point quite eloquently.
earl would also say that “long singles” often turn into “long fxxxing doubles and triples” and create extra bases that don’t have to be “fxxxing god damn stolen.”
by baw on Jun 29, 2008 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll take an out on the bases
than an out at the plate.
Prospects are good. Especially when they aren't rushed.
by CraveCase on Jun 29, 2008 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They're the exact same thing
With the possibility that an out on the bases is more costly b/c it takes more work to get on base than to just get out at the plate. Furthermore, if a guy gets on base, they’re on base and not out until they get themselves out (through an ill-advised steal attempt or tag-up or whatever) or the batter gets them out by hitting into a force play(if that all makes any sense). But really an out is pretty much an out, unless its part of a DP or a K in very special circumstances.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jun 29, 2008 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"players like Jose Reyes and Joey Gathright"...?
They’re both fast. Beyond that, I don’t see why you’d lump them together. Gathright’s career OPS+ is 67. He has a negative impact on the Royals, even if he gets some infield hits.
The ‘85 Cards led the league in OBP and walks. In ‘86 their OBP plummeted to 12th in the league. Hmmm…
by jdub176 on Jun 29, 2008 1:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Check out the batting lines you yourself posted
If they are sacrificing speed for hitting, great</>, and it’s working.
Also, while you mention fast players getting infield hits, speed does not necessarily increase the likelihood of reaching on a batted ball.
by Zack Morris on Jun 29, 2008 1:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ugh
Speed is nice, but if it is not accompanied by baseball skills it is a liability. Look at guys like Juan Pierre, Scott Podsednik, Corey Patterson, your Joey Gathright…these are all guys who are bad at baseball but run like deers. Managers are fascinated by this speed, bat them leadoff, and get all thrilled that they don’t clog the bases (er, maybe that’s just Dusty Baker…). However, without the necessary hitting skills they just make a ton of outs, and then risk more by stealing bases or getting picked off, a risk that is ultimately silly b/c you’re risking an out (the only limiting factor in the game) and a baserunner to move up one base, which can easily be accomplished through any other number of ways w/out costing said runner. Besides, a fast runner is a threat to score from first on a double anyway, so why bother with stealing a base outside of certain circumstances?
Now, regarding Joe Morgan’s man crush, Jose Reyes. Reyes was heavily criticized pre-2006 b/c of the exact issue mentioned before. Yeah, he was fast as hell, but he wouldn’t take a walk, he couldn’t work a count, he didn’t drive the ball much b/c he was just slapping outside changeups on 1-0 to third base or whatever instead of getting HIS pitch. He hit leadoff and didn’t clog the bases, but mainly b/c he was never on the fucking bases in the first place. When he learned a bit more patience at the plate he became Jose Reyes, whereas before he was just a fast guy.
Honestly, I’m perfectly ok with having a team of sluggos that rely on gap shot doubles, walks, and homers. This isn’t an issue, esp. considering the team possesses the second best record and the third highest OPS+ in the NL.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jun 29, 2008 3:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nitpicking
While I completely understand with what you’re saying here, and I agree with most of it, I just wanted to say that I don’t think Juan Pierre belongs on that list. He is not bad at baseball. Besides always being near the top of the league in steals, he also sports a .300 career batting average, is an decent defensive outfielder (save his noodle arm), and always leads his team in runs scored. He’s been the hardest guy in the Majors to strike out for the past five years. I’m not saying he is great, because he’s not. But he’s definitely not bad at baseball.
by mikeonthecards on Jun 29, 2008 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Counterpoint
I see what you’re saying, but I disagree. It is true that he is difficult to strike out and had always posted a high BA. However, his OBP has been pretty poor for four consecutive years, and his slugging percentage has been in Adam Kennedy-territory. He’s only hit 12 homers in his entire career, which combined with his overly aggressive approach at the plate makes him essentially a non-threat with the bat. His EQA has only been above the .260 cutoff twice, and not since 2004. He’s been a run-costing outfielder, according to BP’s FRAA stat, since 2002, with the major caveat that defensive metrics tend to vary quite widely. Basically, by at least one reputable source he’s not much of a fielder. As for the runs scored argument, it’s true that he scores a lot of runs over the course of a season. However, this is mainly due to the fact that he plays almost every single game and piles up enormous numbers of plate appearances. Despite his low OBP, the raw number of times he gets on base is quite high, giving himself more opportunities to score runs than the average person. If he had a high OBP, however, this number would be even higher.
If you look at him on purely tools standpoint, the only ones he’d be high in are speed and hitting-for-average. He’s well below average in power and throwing arm, and in overall defensive skills he’s average at best. I don’t think he’s quite as bad as Gathright or Bourn or those guys, but he’s certainly not very good.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jun 29, 2008 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, I picked bad examples
I more picked Gathaway as a short-term example, since his two infield hits during that one game had an impact.
But still I look at players like Ichiro, Reyes, and even Fukudome as quality players to put in the line-up, and I would expect them to sprint around the bases. For example, how many more runs would we score with those players in the line-up? I’ll tell you, using the line-up calculator. Plus, I imagine that the LOB stats would decrease a bit. (I believe, but cannot confirm, that the Cards were among the teams with the highest LOB stats.)
Prospects are good. Especially when they aren't rushed.
by CraveCase on Jun 29, 2008 5:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Gathaway?
Heh, anyway. You’re referring to Ichiro and Reyes as if they’re niche players – guys no one appreciates or knows about. Reyes was awful before 2006; that’s when he learned how to take a walk, and his OBP went from being around .300 to a steady .350. Ichiro’s career OBP is above .370. So of course adding either of them to the lineup would make the team better. They’re great players, and not just because they’re fast.
...and I would expect them to sprint around the bases.
Yadier Molina sprints around the bases too. Just not very fast. What’s your point?
by jdub176 on Jun 29, 2008 8:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I
was going to post something like this but you beat me to it. That is exactly why Reyes became an all-star, b/c he learned how to work a count, which made his speed game more potent. Ichiro isn’t great b/c he’s fast, he’s great b/c he’s got insane bat control and more than anyone in baseball can decide where he feels like hitting the ball.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jun 30, 2008 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
some things to keep in mind about the 1985 team:
They were #1 in the league in OBP by 9 points, and only 11 points behind the slugging leaders; just looking at HR’s doesn’t tell the whole story. they were 1 point of OPS+ behind the league leaders and led the league in OPS. They also stole those bases at a 76.5% clip, which would be a net benefit even today- and the value of a stolen base was much higher in that lower run-scoring environment. It really was a totally different game then.
They also had the best defense in the league by far, and the second-best pitching.
"If thats bad luck, lets DFA our luck away." -DriverZN
by SleepyCA on Jun 30, 2008 1:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
BTW
imho infield hits should be counted differently in the OPS/runs created type “overall offensive value” formulas. IMO they have the same (or maybe even have less value) than walks, because there is no chance to go first-third or second-home and there IS a chance that guys in front of you can be thrown out advancing. They should count the same for OBP but should not have double the value in slugging column like the standard hit does.
"If thats bad luck, lets DFA our luck away." -DriverZN
by SleepyCA on Jun 30, 2008 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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