Since the halfway point of the season is approaching (and since there was no game tonight), I decided to do an spot check of how performances are matching up to their ZIPS projections.  For hitters, it is simple.  I compared the season to date OPS to the preseason ZIPS projections listed on FanGraphs.  For pitchers, I took a few different measurements.  I took the variance in ERA, WHIP, and K Rate. 

First I'll list the hitters results.  I'll start with the ones that have overperformed the OPS projection the greatest and move on to those that have undershot the projections. 

Ludwick              +139

Schumaker        +136

Pujols                 +96

Molina                 +86

Miles                   +86

Ankiel                  +86

Larue                  +42

Ryan                   +30

Izturis                  +14

Kennedy             +1

Glaus                  -22

Barton                 -33

Duncan              -157

Here are the results for pitchers in the 3 categories (ERA, WHIP, K/9 INN).  As an aside, Kyle McClellan didn't even get a ZIPS projection.  So I guess we can say he exceeded expectations by quite a wide margin, simply by logging 41 big league innings so far.  Anyway here they are starting with ERA....

Perez              +1.57

Pineiro           +1.42

Franklin          +1.08

Wainwright     +.99

Wellemeyer    +.98

Lohse              +.82

Springer          +.67

Looper             +.62

Boggs              +.09

Reyes              -.26

Flores             -1.03

Villone            -1.40

Isringhausen -2.20

And WHIP....

Wellemeyer   +.35

Wainwright    +.25

Pineiro           +.25

Perez              +.18

Lohse             +.13

Looper            +.08

Boggs            +.07

Reyes             +.03

Springer         On the projection

Franklin         -.18

Isringhausen  -.22

Villone             -.32

Flores             -.55

And finally K rate per 9 innings...

Villone            +1.47

Franklin          +1.03

Perez              +.25

Wellemeyer    +.21

Pineiro             +.06

Wainwright       +.01

Reyes               -.33

Springer          -.62

Looper            -.73

Lohse             -1.33

Flores             -1.33

Isringhausen  -1.93

Boggs              -2.29

So that's the data.   Of course, different people can take it and interpret different things.  Those more optimistic among us will see the number outperforming the projection and take it as support that this team is better than people thought.  The pessimistic approach might say some of this screams what has because a cliche in blogdom..."Regression to the mean!" 

Either way I hope it might spark some good discussion.  For whatever it is worth, I have a few thoughts as I look over this.  To what extent my views are skewed by preexisting biases I can't say, but I am sure some exist.

First, offensively, I am encouraged by the extreme overachievement by the outfield, Duncan and Barton excluded.  Even as the season began, Ankiel and Ludwick struck me as guys that are really hard to peg with an accurate projection.  The range of possibilities were so wide, and I felt then (and still do now) that ZIPS was on the extreme conservative side of that spectrum.  Ludwick and Schumaker, and even Ankiel, may not be able to sustain this current level, but I am comfortable that they are better than most thought going into the season.   Overall I think this group is legimate, at least in the sense they will outperform ZIPS in the second half as well, even if not to the same extent as the first.

Secondly, I take the opposite viewpoint with the middle infield.  I find it strangely disturbing that each member of this group has outperformed ZIPS to varying degrees.  I think the main reason for this completely different view of the infield's outperformance vs. the outfield's lies in the fact that every member, save Ryan, has a solid historical baseline to base a projection on.   It's been a light hitting unit for a long time.  It is again this year, more or less.  It's entirely believable that it could be worse. 

On the pitching side, I think the WHIP results illustrate the story best.  Every starter has beat their expectation for allowing baserunners on.  Only Perez and Reyes have beat their expectation from the pen.   Perez's ZIPS were not pretty - it clearly expected he would not be ready.  Reyes are based off his history as a starter, which in theory, at least, is a more difficult assignment. 

I am unsure which starters can continue this pace and which can't.  I'd say Wellemeyer is the most likely candidate to continue to beat his ZIPS.  It seems pretty clear he is better than almost anyone thought he was this winter.   Lohse has a long history in his role, so maybe he's most likely to regress. But that's all debatable.

Most disturbing is the bullpen.  Too many of these guys are on the wrong side of the age curve to believe that more are going to turn it around than aren't.  Some will, sure.  But to expect most to seems unlikely.  And the left side looks especially bleak to me.  Villone and Flores have both been hanging on by a thread before this season.  To me, it is more believable that what we see now is closer to reality than what was projected.   I think Mozeliak has to consider this the number one priority.  If a suitable lefthanded replacement cannot be acquired, the best approach may be to purge the current duo anyway.  Tony wants to play the matchups.  Save him the temptation for now until true opportunities arise. 

And finally, I think there is a glimpse into how effective the defense has been in here.  The K rates are not beating the projections as a whole but the ERA's and baserunners allowed are.   The first part makes some sense - Duncan doesn't center his philospophy on K's.  You need a good defense to make that pitching approach work though.  The extreme outperformance in baserunners allowed, absent an increase in strikeouts suggests the strength of this team's defense.  The ERA supports this too, although it can also be explained by an ability to keep the ball in the park.

Those are my thoughts at the halfway point.  Part of the draw of this site is that there are a number of different points of view to be found, and people are able to communicate them effectively and persuasively.  I'm hoping it might spark a little discussion about who's most likely to sustain, improve, regress, etc....