the market for pitchers
by lboros on Jun 26, 2008 9:00 AM EDT
206 comments
annoying loss last night; the cards had four separate leads (2-0, 4-2, 6-5, and 7-6) and blew them all. that’s how it goes sometimes; the tigers are playing well, they were at home, and they have a lineup with no holes. tip your cap and move on. the good news: jess todd was dominant in the double A all-star game, striking out 5 of the 7 all-stars he faced. but his teammates, fernando salas and luke gregerson, coughed up 5 runs in the 9th and 10th innings to lose the game.
toward the bottom of joe strauss’s long chat yesterday, somebody asked who the cards might go after at the trade deadline. strauss responded:
Pitching is the priority. The possibilities for a starter include: Padilla, Bedard, Sabathia, Wolf, Washburn, Lowe and Batista.
note that he says "possibilities include" --- ie, it’s a partial list of targets, not a comprehensive one. but since strauss is naming them, we can safely assume the cards are at least mildly in pursuit of these guy. let’s take a look at them --- click on the pitcher's name for his career stats.
- vicente padilla: making $11m this year, owed $12m next year, with a $12m option for 2010 ($1.75m buyout). having a very nice comeback year --- 10-3 record, 3.74 era. it’s his first sub-4.00 era since 2003 (when he pitched for the phillies), and only his second completely healthy season. last year he missed 10 starts with a triceps injury, the second time in 3 years that particular ailment landed him on the dl; this year he has a very sick daughter back home in nicaragua and might need to spend some time with her (he missed a start earlier this month for that reason). the cards were interested in him during the 2006 free-agent shop meet; he throws hard and would likely thrive in the st louis ballpark, which quashes home runs (padilla’s main vulnerability). his k rate is healthy at 6.2 this year, and fangraphs has his fastball holding steady at 92 mph. one other interesting note from the fangraphs pitch-type data: padilla has basically become a two-pitch pitcher, throwing fastball-slider 90 percent of the time this year and all but ditching the curveball; maybe the triceps thing has something to do with that. endurance is definitely an issue --- he has pitched into the 7th inning only 6 times in 16 starts. and padilla’s FIP is 5.15, which gives serious pause --- because (as readers of this blog surely know) FIP is a better predictor of future performance than ERA is. the high FIP is primarily an effect of padilla’s high home-run rate; with the change of ballparks and leagues, that should come down a tick. in addition to the high price and the injury history, padilla has been known to have a temper. risky, but there’s clear upside.
- jarrod washburn: your average soft-tossing lefty, averages 87-88 mph w/ the fastball but only throws it about half the time, using an assortment of off-speed stuff to fool hitters --- or try to, anyway. like padilla, he’s under contract for one more guaranteed year, at $10.3m. he’s having a lousy year so far (2-7, 5.52), but that’s due almost entirely to a .344 batting average on balls in play; we can expect that figure to regress to the mean, ie to come down. on almost every other important indicator --- FIP, k rate, bb rate, hr rate, strand rate, gb/fb ratio --- washburn is right at his career norms; he has yielded a higher than usual line-drive rate this year, but that is probably a reflection more of bad luck than of declining skill. by all indications, he is still throwing it as well as he did the last few years, when he reliably posted league-averagish ERAs. he pitches in front of a poor defense, on the majors’ worst team; with the more capable st louis gloves behind him, he might get better results. he also has no injury issues to speak of, although he is at best a 6-inning starter (hasn’t thrown 200 innings since 2003). because of his contract, his bad numbers, and the mariners’ need to shed payroll, i would expect washburn to be available pretty cheap; if that proves true, he might be a good solution for the short run. but i don’t like the idea of having to pay him $10m next year. the cards might do just as well to call up jaime garcia or jess todd.
- miguel batista: washburn’s teammate in seattle, and pitching even worse --- 3-9, 6.26 era. he has stopped throwing strikes --- walk rate is 6.5 bb per 9 innings, nearly twice his career average. he’s owed $9m next year; i don’t see how he’s better than boggs, thompson, or reyes, and he’s much more expensive. pass.
- derek lowe: in his walk year; 35 years old, healthy, very durable, very steady. he’s not quite as good away from dodger stadium --- era on the road has been about 0.75 higher than at home over the last 3 years, in the aggregate --- but st louis has a pitcher’s park, too, so maybe that’s a wash. also has a longstanding platoon split, has trouble w/ lefties. his gb/fb is down significantly this year, although still very high; velocity looks steady, FIP is solid, k / bb / hr rates all look good. he’s the same pitcher as looper, only quite a bit better; i would not expect the dodgers to give him up for nothing --- probably would require us to part w/ bryan anderson or the equivalent. steep cost for a two-month rental, but of the pitchers we have looked at thus far lowe would be the surest stabilizer of the rotation.
- randy wolf: on a one-year, $4.75m deal; is 5-6 with a 4.09 era. wolf hasn’t missed a start this year and is pitching very well at the moment (7 quality starts in last 8 outings, 3.10 era over that stretch), but his era away from petco park is 5.84, vs 2.52 at home. his k rate has actually increased since his return from tj surgery in 2006, although he did miss half of last year w/ a bad shoulder. like lowe he could be an impact acquisition, but also like lowe he won’t come cheap; we’ll have to give up an important prospect for 11 starts from this guy. and, unlike lowe, he probably won’t be a type A free agent after the season, so the cards wouldn’t even get an extra draft pick out of the deal to make up for the loss of whichever prospect they trade.
that brings us to sabathia and bedard. no need to look at the numbers; they’re both great pitchers, and either would turn the cards into title contenders. but i think they’re both going to be too costly for the cards to consider. both are pending free agents --- sabathia will probably get zito / santana money or close to it, and while bedard won’t be as pricey, somebody will still pay him crazy money. so if the cards acquired either one, he’d strictly be a rental. but because of their marquee value, these pitchers both would probably require more than one significant prospect --- a prohibitive price for a two-month rental. how can we be sure it would cost this much? i direct you to this post from last year, when the mark-buehrle-to-cardinals talk was at its height. i found, first of all, that pitchers of that stature almost never change teams midseason; in the rare cases where they do, the acquiring team inevitably has to give up 3 or 4 big-time prospects. it cost the mets 4 of their best prospects for one season of johan santana; for half a season of sabathia or bedard, the cards would have to give up at least 2 of their top guys. anybody want to deal garcia and mortensen, or todd and anderson, for 2 months of c.c.? not me.
i think the best option on this list (and, again, it's not an all-inclusive list) is derek lowe --- he’ll cost one big-time prospect, but the cardinal farm system has improved to the point where that’s an affordable expense. wolf would be a very good pickup too, and might not cost quite as much talent as lowe; padilla probably would cost less talent than either of the foregoing, but he carries more risk and a heavier financial cost. washburn is probably a better short-term fix than his numbers would suggest, but his 2009 salary is burdensome. batista should not be considered under any circumstances.
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I agree
When I read the list, the first thing I thought was “the only two on there I like are Derek Lowe and Randy Wolf.” Big Dunc would drool over Lowe’s sinker, and I think he’d be a great addition to the rotation. I’ve always liked Randy Wolf, so maybe that’s why I’m high on him, but as lb mentioned, he’s having a good season. Would take Lowe over him though, by far.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on Jun 26, 2008 9:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed on Wolf
When Wolf was with the Phillies, some fans started the wolf pack (bunch of folks in the bleachers wearing werewolf masks). They would do some choreagraphed/synchronized stuff when Wolf struck people out. It was pretty hilarious. I’ve always liked Wolf and had never heard anything negative about him. He should have a fear good years left?
I think Lowe’s price will be too high. LA is only 3 back and they play in NL West . Penny is not doing too well this season. I just don’t see any reasons why LA would want to trade him right now. Don’t get me wrong. I would love to have Lowe, but I don’t think it could get done.
BTW, anyone else catch Carl Edwards on the Sox/D-backs game? He said he started doing back flips because of the Oz. That was neat to hear.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
by totalloser on Jun 26, 2008 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It would be nice...
to add a lefty in the rotation, just to change things up a bit.
I think Lowe would be the best option just because of his Type A FA status as well as his postseason experience and durability. Wolf still seems fragile to me, so the rental period may not even be the 2 months.
I still think the biggest need is a LOOGY, not a starter.
by Jumsy on Jun 26, 2008 9:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
bedard or sabathia
could be a ridiculous LOOGY.
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on Jun 26, 2008 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lowe
Perfect fit for the pitching coach’s philosophy.
I wonder, though, if this is a window into the organization’s expectations for Wainwright and Mulder. I don’t blame them as I don’t have any expectations for Mulder either. We could funnel his salary and Encarnacion’s into a decent SP next season and the next.
by bgh on Jun 26, 2008 9:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree
I’d like to see us go after Lowe, especially if the Dodgers are completely out of it.
Lowe’s done well in the playoffs before and is typically dependable in big game situations. Plus, he’ll be a stable member of our rotation and like you said, he pitches just like our coaches preach. Hopefully a ton of teams won’t be wanting him, but I don’t see it being that easy to pry him away.
On with the (good) youth movement!
by aet15 on Jun 26, 2008 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bedard
actually isn’t a free agent until after next season. Even so…pass. He’d cost Rasmus + as a result.
Of those mentioned, Lowe and Wolf are the only ones I’d be interested in. I have no interest whatsoever in paying Padilla an extra $13.75 M after this season. His career has been far too mercurial.
Washburn and Batista … pass. They’re not good and owed $9 M + for next year? That’s crazy talk! May as well go w/ Boggs or call up Garcia or Reyes. No, shouldn’t really put Garcia in the rotation this year—we need to limit his innings but he’d be as good or better than those clowns.
The problem w/ trading for Lowe is that the Dodgers likely would have no interest in Anderson. That means what…2 of Garcia, Mortensen, and Todd. Pass. If we could just give up Mortensen and, say, John Jay or even Mortensen, Jay, and Reyes. Maybe throw in Duncan instead of one. I doubt it though. If the Dodgers decide to trade Lowe, they’ll do better than Clayton Mortensen as the best prospect they receive in return.
by chuckb on Jun 26, 2008 9:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
bedard
i have a feeling that he and duncan would not get along. in baltimore, he earned a reputation for his aloofness, which continued even during his monster ‘07 season. now i’m not going to guess at the interpersonal relationships between duncan and his pitchers, but judging by past personalities that have come through the organization, i really don’t think bedard would be a good fit.
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on Jun 26, 2008 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I heard though the grape vine
I heard Shawn Chacon might be available now…....
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 26, 2008 9:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't really call it a grape vine, more mainstream news...
NO WAY to Chacon. The guy is having some mental issues (based on what I’ve read about the incident). I could see the Yankees taking him to recreate some of that magic he provided not to long ago, but not likely.
by Jumsy on Jun 26, 2008 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hate replying to my own comments, but...
wouldn’t you love to see Chacon get picked up by the Yankees and have him choke and throw George and Hank Steinbrenner to the ground at once, a la The Undertaker’s double choke slam?
by Jumsy on Jun 26, 2008 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chacon is terrible
we should have no interest regardless of yesterday’s incident—which (genius GM) Ed Wade provoked by yelling and cussing at Chacon for no reason. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not excusing Chacon’s actions, I’m just saying that Wade decided to yell and cuss at the man to tell him to “look in the mirror.” Was that really necessary? They should’ve just sent him to the pen and let him cool off for a couple of days rather than pouring gasoline on that lit fuse.
by chuckb on Jun 26, 2008 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Be careful
You’re believing one side of the story.
It’s possible Wade wasn’t really yelling, wasn’t really provoking him. And judging by the fact that even Chacon admitted to being resistant to going into Wade’s office, Chacon was a bit ornery himself.
Even if the story went exactly as Chacon said (which I doubt), his action was still inexcusable.
by mojowo11 on Jun 26, 2008 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not so fast...
From what I heard on a radio show this morning, two other Astros players have corroborated Chacon’s story. He had no business physically harming Wade, but Wade had no business cursing him out, repeatedly, after he had been told to stop, TWICE! Regardless of whether Wade has a point or not, acting like he did is totally unprofessional.
Chacon has been known to have a short fuse in the past, so it’s possible Wade was trying to bait him into doing something, and Chacon put himself in a bad situation by not walking away. That still doesn’t excuse Wade’s behavior, as if his mishandling of this ballclub wasn’t a bad enough crime already.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 26, 2008 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
look - Chacon was completely wrong. There is no excuse for what he did. However, why did Wade want him to go to the office in the first place. My guess is so that they could berate Chacon - again! Was that going to help the club? No. All it would’ve done is made Wade feel better and made a bad situation worse.
When Chacon refused to go to Cooper’s office, Wade should’ve suspended him right then. When Wade started yelling and cursing it was only to make him feel better, not to better the club or Chacon in any way. He was pouring gasoline on a lit fuse. That is totally unprofessional.
He didn’t deserve what happened to him, but he shouldn’t be terrribly surprised by it either. Wade’s not an innocent victim in this.
by chuckb on Jun 26, 2008 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why? Because he grabbed Ed Wade by the neck and through Wade to the ground?
From espn.com:
Chacon, upset after getting demoted to the bullpen over the weekend, told the Houston Chronicle this problem began when Wade saw him in the dining room before the game against Texas. Wade wanted to meet with Chacon in manager Cecil Cooper’s office, the pitcher said.“I sat down to eat and Ed Wade came to me and very sternly said, ‘You need to come with me to the office,’” Chacon said. “I said, ‘For what?’ I said, ‘I don’t want to go to the office with you and Cooper.’ And I said, ‘You can tell me whatever you got to tell me right here.’ He’s like, ‘Oh, you want me to tell you right here?’ And I said, ‘Yeah.’ I’m not yelling. I’m calm.”
Chacon said things went downhill from there.
“He started yelling and cussing,” Chacon said of Wade, according to a story on the Chronicle’s Web site. “I’m sitting there and I said to him very calmly, ‘Ed, you need to stop yelling at me.’ Then I stood up and said, ‘You better stop yelling at me.’ I stood up. He continued and was basically yelling.”
Chacon said that after Wade told him he needed to “look in the mirror,” it got worse.
“So at that point I lost my cool and I grabbed him by the neck and threw him to the ground. I jumped on top of him,” he said. “Words were exchanged.”
by bgh on Jun 26, 2008 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My favorite part
After grabbing Astros General Manager Ed Wade by the neck and throwing him to the ground, Chacon said, “Maybe it shouldn’t have happened”
You know, like “maybe I shouldn’t have had that extra cup of coffee,” or “maybe I should have brought an umbrella with me to work because it looks like its going to rain.”
by Ray Lankford on Jun 26, 2008 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"words were exchanged"
i’m trying to picture chacon throwing wade to the ground, jumping him, and “exchanging words”.
by mattybobo on Jun 26, 2008 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How much ya wanna bet
those “words” liberally quoted the late, great George Carlin’s “Seven Words You Can Never Say On Television”?
“You’re a *,, *!”
“No, YOU’RE a *, , **!!!”
“(Gack! Gargle! Choke!)”
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
by The Ol Goaler on Jun 26, 2008 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
All Depends
It all depends on what it costs to get Bedard. He has electric stuff but the price would most likely be too high. After him only Lowe and Wolf are at all interesting, but again I think the cost would be too high for short term rentals. I would really like to see the Cards add a quality lefty for the bullpen instead of one of these starters.
by sstabs on Jun 26, 2008 9:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't mind a MI that doesn't carry a purse.
This team has a bunch of “what if’s”, however, I think it’ll take more than just a B.A. pitcher to turn Wins added into Marginal Wins that would get into the playoffs.
Currently BP has the cards at almost a 500 team per 3rd Order Wins, that obv. won’t make the playoffs. Once Pu, Carp, Mulder, Iz2, Wainer, Colonel, comes back, how good will the team really be? I don’t think we can make that assessment on who we need until then really, but I’d be willing to bet just adding an Ace probably won’t get the job done…it’ll do wonders for the Playoff Secret Sauce formula, but I think the Loogy and MI ladies are too much of a hole to be filled with a starting pitcher or at least anybody less than CC.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
by rocKStark5 on Jun 26, 2008 9:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That MI has pretty much saved our collective asses the past week.. just saying.
I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang
by AdjustedExpectations on Jun 26, 2008 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes, adjusted
the Miles critics have had to plug it for the last few days
by the Tewk on Jun 26, 2008 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's not a purse... it's european!
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on Jun 26, 2008 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
are we rebuilding?
if we are rebuilding, why would we give up prospects? i really hate the thought of giving up a top flight prospect who may produce for years at a cost controlled level for a 35 year old pitcher or a pitcher we get for 11 starts. if anything, i think we should be selling high on certain people to get more prospects…
by UNCDubya on Jun 26, 2008 9:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Rebuilding? I hope not.
Why would we want to rebuild when we currently have the 2nd best record in the NL?
I know that was the plan before the year, but I’m not willing to toss out the first half of the year simply because that was the general consensus in February and March. The only reason to rebuild is so that you can put together a team capable of having one of the top records in the league and make the playoffs. We’re already doing that.
by birdo rojo on Jun 26, 2008 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pitching Middle Class
I would not be in favor of taking on Padilla, Washburn or Bautista’s contract for next year. I don’t believe in paying for middle class pitching. I’m all for Paying top dollar for front end pitchers, but in my opinion Jarrod Washburn doesn’t represent a 10 million dollar improvement over what the Cardinals currently have. I would be curious what Lowe would cost in terms of talent.
As for selling high, mirage or no mirage I do not want to root for a team the trades off big league assets while in a pennett race
by billymartin on Jun 26, 2008 10:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pass on everyone except CC, Bedard and maybe Lowe
I don’t see any of the other guys as significant improvements over the starters we currently have. Of course we’d have to be able to get CC, Bedard and Lowe at a price that wouldn’t completely destroy our minor leagues. Not sure that’s going to happen.
I hope we wait a couple of weeks, take stock of how our injuries/recoveries are progressing and then make a decision. The only thing I would be in favor of now would be to get a Lefty that could actually get lefties and an occasional righty out.
by birdo rojo on Jun 26, 2008 10:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I say nay to all.
The only good ones are too expensive. We can get enough production from what we already have that acquiring any of the cheaper pitchers on the list becomes a negligible move.
I know nobody wants to hear it, but this is still a transitional year. I hesitate to say rebuilding, because it doesn’t look as if the team is far enough from being a legit title contender to necessitate a full rebuild, but this is still a transition. There was a plan going into this year, and it was a sound, intelligent, well conceived plan. Things have gone well so far, better than most of us thought. That does not, however, mean the plan should be abandoned.
This organisation has a few pieces on the way that could very well make them title contenders in a year or two without making any sorts of moves at all. Even if they fall a bit short of that, the depth is there to make the moves then. For now, though, taking a chance on hamstringing yourself and bringing in an albatross contract is just too likely to end up being very damaging. Flexibility was the watchword in February, and flexibility should be the watchword now. Yes, this is a pretty good team. It is not, however, a WS team yet, in my opinion, and what it would take to make it a legitimate WS team today would end up killing the team in the next couple of years.
Ride it out with what we’ve got. Make your small adjustments around the edges (new LOOGY, anyone?), and bring in more youth, if you can. But do not mortgage the future. It’s far too bright to sell off just because the team is playing well right now. It was a good plan. See it through.
What this book presupposes is, maybe he didn't?
by the red baron on Jun 26, 2008 10:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
OT: I know you’ve said it on here before, but my memory escapes me. Why do you use British spellings of words? I remember you don’t live in the UK or anything, but why use ‘em?
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on Jun 26, 2008 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bloody Right
Spot on the mark my good chum. I thought we were trying to make other team think we had a SP surplus to drive up trade value for Reyes and such. I’ve know injuries have changed that but I don’t see the need to mortgage the future for a starter. Getting a new lefty in the pen is something I’m getting sold on more and more with every Flores pitch. That and getting a bat in the middle infield, but you know it’s hard to find what no one will trade. Oh well, time for some tea and crumpets.
Cheers
"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin
by That's a Winner on Jun 26, 2008 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
baron, i'm only with you part way
i agree that general plan is working and the team should stick to it; that’s why i am opposed to a trade that would cost multiple prospects. but there’s enough depth in the system now to support the expenditure of one prospect; they can do that without derailing the overall plan to build from within. and in my mind, that’s a warranted expense because, very unexpectedly, the cards have a realistic opportunity to go deep into the playoffs this year. for all we know, their opportunity is better this year than it will be in 2009.
by lboros on Jun 26, 2008 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe we can all be apart of a post in a couple of days on what prospects are off the table when using the one prospect for one arm campaign.
There’s 3 or 4 guys I can think of that I would like off the table for now, there’s some that are going to be clearly blocked.
I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang
by AdjustedExpectations on Jun 26, 2008 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree Baron
I couldn’t believe my eyes when I came to VEB today to see a post about acquiring a starting pitcher when it’s painfully obvious the team needs not just one new relief pitcher but two or three. The rotation is fine and will probably get Wainwright back about the same time a trade for one of these guys would eventually go through. So, I’m not sure why all the hubabaloo over acquiring one of these 2nd class starting pitchers.
by Tackle Box on Jun 26, 2008 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
with you all the way, red baron
great post
by the Tewk on Jun 27, 2008 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lowe's split against lefties
Lowe, as forementioned by lboros, has a much worse split against lefties. Here are the top hitters in the Central:
Lee RH
Ramirez RH
Soriano RH
Edmonds (has he found it again?) LH
Fukudome LH
Fielder LH
Braun RH
Branyan (vs. Righties) LH
Doumit (Switch) LH
McLouth LH
Bay RH
Berkman (Switch) LH
Lee RH
Votto LH
Dunn LH
I dunno…do we really want him when he’s much worse v. lefties and 9 of the top 15 batters in the Central he’d be facing would be batting left handed against him?
by stlfan on Jun 26, 2008 10:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
you forgot
miguel tejada and huter pence, two RH batters. and russ branyan – a guy who was in AAA a month ago – is a bigtime stretch to be on this list.
frankly, i’d be much more concerned with the cubs, whose main three big boppers are all RH. fukudome can get on base all he wants if lowe saws off the guys behind him and gets some DPs.
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on Jun 26, 2008 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also...
How many of these teams are we actually going to be competing against down the stretch. Lowe may not even start his turns against half of the players you listed, so looking at it from that position is a bit ridiculous, imo. He’s interesting because he has a high GB ratio and can eat innings during his starts. He’s a nice fit for the Cardinals, but not getting him because there’s good left handed hitters in the central is a dubious concern.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 26, 2008 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
there's good LH hitters in every division
todd helton, adrian gonzalez, brian giles, freddy lewis, brad hawpe?
i don’t think the dodgers are afraid to have lowe face these guys.
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on Jun 26, 2008 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So, what bullshit will the organization feed us today for the inevitable not sending Duncan down when Pujols is activated
boo cubs, hooray beer
by Raconteur on Jun 26, 2008 10:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He needs work in LF
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on Jun 26, 2008 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mayhap
they don’t need 13 pitchers and 12 position players?
(Mayhap our Birds do, in fact, need 13 pitchers… what with Welley’s barking elbow, etc… Stavinoha becomes a man without a position once we’re done with AL play…)
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
by The Ol Goaler on Jun 26, 2008 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bullpen stability/stalwart
Isn’t this what we really need at the moment?
by mattysha on Jun 26, 2008 10:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We're conceding these guys as short-term rentals
Wasn’t that the case when the Cards acquired McGwire and Edmonds as well?
What is the likelihood of trading for, say, Bedard, having him play half a season in a pennant race in STL, fall in love with the town, and signing a big extension before ever hitting the FA market? He’s only ever played for Baltimore and this year’s awful Seattle team, so being part of a competitive team in a great baseball town ought to energize him and interest him in signing a new deal.
Have guys just become too smart/greedy to pass on FA money? Are the Cards just not willing to take a chance on this happening anymore? Were the McG and JEd deals basically worked out in advance, making it low risk? If that’s true, why not look into pulling that off again here?
by Zack Morris on Jun 26, 2008 11:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Wanna bet 6 years of Rasmus
plus 6 years of two other top prospects on it? I don’t. Maybe he won’t take the most money out there, but most do. And that assumes, which I’m not ready to, that he’d be worth 7 years. Maybe he won’t need the most money, but we’d have to be competitive in terms of years—and he’ll get 7. He’s already 29 and will be 31 when he throws his first pitch of that long-term contract. A 7 year deal will take him until he’s 37 years old. I don’t think I’d be willing to sign him to a 7 year deal. He’s had 1 good year and 1 excellent year so far. I’m sure not going to trade Rasmus’ 6 seasons + 6 seasons each of 2 other good prospects on the chance that we may be able to sign him for 7 years. No way! I wouldn’t trade Rasmus straight up for Bedard.
by chuckb on Jun 26, 2008 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, I don't
Sorry for being unclear. Bedard was just an example; the question was more in general if this is possible. We always refer to these guys only as short-term rentals, but the Cards have a recent history of success in re-signing trade deadline acquisitions. Larry Walker also fits this bill I believe. Is it now outside the realm of possibility.
by Zack Morris on Jun 26, 2008 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about Sabathia then?
He’s had 4 quality seasons, was the best pitcher in the AL last season, strikes out a ton of batters, and eats innings like they’re going out of style (as well as all the chicken wings on the post-game buffet, but that’s another story…). He’s probably going to get 7 years as well…but he’s just entering his prime years as a pitcher, doesn’t have a long injury history, and wants to pitch for a winner.
I’m not sure I’d trade for him, because he’d cost too much. But wouldn’t he be an interesting guy to target as a free agent in the offseason? Cleveland certainly doesn’t have the resources to sign him, and I doubt they’re going to find anyone who’s going to give up the prospects to trade for him during the season. He’ll bring them 2 draft picks in return for a team that usually drafts fairly well. There would obviously be a bidding war for his services, with all the big market teams in the running (NY, Boston, Detroit, LA Angels), but the Cardinals could possibly be the only NL team in the running for him (Met’s have Santana, Cubs have Big Z and a bunch of big contracts, nobody else is going to pony up that kind of dough). If you add up Encarnacion’s deal and Mulder’s deal, that nearly covers the $16-$18 milion that he’d command.
I’m not saying I’m in favor of it, I’d rather see them look to improve the middle infield in free agency with players like Hudson and Furcal, but I think the Cardinals have to at least kick the tires to see if he’s an option. With CC, Carp, WW, Piniero, and Boggs/Garcia/Mortenson/Todd they’d have one of the better rotations in all of baseball and continue to have pitching depth in the offseason.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 26, 2008 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sabathia is great!
and he’s relatively young as he hasn’t yet turned 28. In general, I hate giving 7 year contracts to pitchers…period. I’m not opposed to checking in w/ his agent in the offseason, but when a couple of teams offer 7 years, $130 M - do we really want to go there - even for C.C.? He’s really, really good, but I think I’d rather hope that Wainwright turns into C.C. and that Todd, Garcia, Mortensen, et al are able to supplement the rotation.
by chuckb on Jun 26, 2008 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Two things
1. The Cardinals seem to have an allergy to go for long-term deals on pitchers. It’s what sunk the AJ Burnett deal. I know they did one with Carpenter, but they may regret it down the road.
2. If we’re going to rent one of these guys, yes, let’s sign him long-term—or at least plan to. I just don’t understand giving up all those prospects and scratch for a couple of months of service.
by Red in Chicago on Jun 26, 2008 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
when is the last long term deal that we’ve gotten into with pitchers and not had injury/performance concerns? I’d be a little timid too.
I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang
by AdjustedExpectations on Jun 26, 2008 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
follow up question...
When was the last time the Cards offered a long term contract to a pitcher that didn’t already have a spotty health history?
When you gamble on oft-injured guys you’re going to get burned more times than not.
I’m glad they didn’t go after A.J Burnett for a 7 year deal…he’s never gotten through a season without missing starts due to injury. He’s a great talent, but he’s not as good as Sabathia and a much larger injury risk
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 26, 2008 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Betting 6 years of Rasmus etc
People around here (not you, just sayin’) blindly say they won’t give up almost any prospect for any “rentals” or whatever and it’s just silly. Teams have been doing this successfully for years and just because it’s the latest fad to over value prospects doesn’t mean it’s the right thing to do.
It all comes down to simple math actually:
X = This years chances of winning with “Rental”
Y = The teams from 2009-15(ish) with Prospect
Z = The teams from 2009-15(ish) without Prospect
If X’s chances of winning the WS are greater than Z’s = trade.
If X’s chances of winning the WS are less than Y’s = don’t.
If the cards are clearly the best team in the majors come the deadline you bet your ass I’d ship Rasmus for a Cy Young caliber pitcher.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"
by rocKStark5 on Jun 26, 2008 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There really isn't any player who is in arbitration
right now that I would trade Rasmus for. Not one. He’s going to be the core of the Cardinals offense for the next 4-5 years. Teams don’t trade talent like that any more (unless you are the Mariners and you ship out Adam Jones) they lock them up to long term deals (Tulowitski, Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, etc.). The playoffs are such a crap shot that it’s not worth selling the next 5 years for a shot at the playoffs.
by azruavatar on Jun 26, 2008 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if he's the core of the offense
we may be in trouble
Ankiel is Jesus!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 26, 2008 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right!
We’ve got 2 chances w/ Bedard or 6 chances w/ Rasmus. And that’s assuming that Bedard is traded for Rasmus straight up, which most certainly wouldn’t be the deal. Perhaps I do overvalue Rasmus. Perhaps you’re overvaluing Bedard. Bedard will be 29 next season. Rasmus will be 22. The minute he steps foot in the Cards’ lineup, he becomes one of our top hitters, perhaps our 2nd best.
I suppose you’re right—the math is simple: 2 years of Bedard (or really 1 1/3) vs. 6 years of Rasmus. What’s silly is choosing Bedard.
by chuckb on Jun 26, 2008 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Adam jones wasn't worth it for Bedard straight up, Rasmus isn't either.
Give you're propers to the all time rec leader.
by JI on Jun 27, 2008 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Odalis Perez has been awful this year with the Mets and is his last year...
His mechanics are way off…He can’t get his curve over. He’s lost his confidence. Sounds like a PERFECT LADUNC PROJECT. He holds relatively little value on the market right now…can probably be had for a song and re-signed on the cheap. Remember how well he pitched against the cards in ‘06????
mattnj
by mattnj on Jun 26, 2008 11:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
excuse me, thats correct OLIVER PEREZ
mattnj
by mattnj on Jun 26, 2008 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good idea
Toss them Reyes and we can each exchange troubled kids.
Worked out OK for us with the Rolen deal.
by birdo rojo on Jun 26, 2008 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oliver Perez.......
hmm…...interesting pitcher. Do we really want to go there? A lefthander with serious mechanical issues? I’m not sure that would work out so well.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on Jun 26, 2008 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
TYPICAL LADUNC PROJECT...has the talent...not the coaching
mattnj
by mattnj on Jun 26, 2008 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry. I don't see it.
He’s a high strike-out low ground ball percentage pitcher. He’s had some good coaching-they got good results out of him last year. He’s having a rough go of it again this year-he’s a Boras client who is free at the end of the season. If they are serious about wanting him, I’d make an offer then. He really is too much of a project to take on right now IMO.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on Jun 26, 2008 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
or
wait till FA and see if you can grab it at a couple years and only cost you money – if someone wanted him as a project. From all accounts, his market value could continue to go down.
No one really complains about the extra cash in the Mulder deal, it’s the prospects that was lost. (not that money didn’t rub salt in the wound).
I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang
by AdjustedExpectations on Jun 26, 2008 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed jill
He is NOT a typical LaDunc project. Doesn’t feature a sinker, is successful when he K’s alot of batters. I’ll pass. I like the talent, but he doesn’t match up well with us.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on Jun 26, 2008 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course, that doesn't mean I Wouldn't like to have him or that type of pitcher.
But, well, you know. Strikeouts are, er, umm, bad…..
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on Jun 26, 2008 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and a free agent at the end of the year
Duncan wouldn’t have much time to get him straight.
by chuckb on Jun 26, 2008 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He got Jeff Weaver "straight" in half a season
But like I said earlier, Perez is not the type of pitcher Duncan has success with. I’ll pass on that every time.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on Jun 26, 2008 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't he a bit of a headcase too?
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
by Eckstreem on Jun 26, 2008 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Please don't throw the term "headcase" around so casually.
I think most players that are called “headcases” are having crisis in confidence-brought on by not performing the way they expect. Success repairs the head IMO.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on Jun 26, 2008 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Something else Strauss said in yesterday's chat...
“Stockpiling prospects does no good if they’re not used to improve the big club.”...I think we all have been pleasantly surprised that this system that was considered barren not that long ago, seems to suddenly be awash in legitimate big league prospects…to me, the question is this: how close are we to being in a position where a pitcher like Sabathia or Bedard would make us a real title contender, as opposed to just a team that is just happy to make the playoffs in what was considered a rebuilding year…do we think this team has what it takes to bypass the Cubs in the post season, if ALL you are adding is another starting pitcher? If the answer is “yes” then I would say toss the dice and go get a big guy.
by tbell61 on Jun 26, 2008 11:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Talent evaluation........
This is the most critical part of the Organization at this point…........
You have to be able to evaluate/forecat talent so you know who to keep or trade.
by ICbirdfan on Jun 26, 2008 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
exactly
Ankiel is Jesus!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 26, 2008 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
next year we will lose 2 members of our rotation
to free agency—Looper and Lohse. We don’t know the degree to which Wellemeyer’s elbow is damaged and I think, if we’ve already learned 1 thing from this year, it’s that you can never have too many solid SP prospects. Anderson may be superfluous as Molina’s improvement at the plate the last half of last season seems to be a real improvement in his ability. We are not so awash that we can afford to just toss them around on mediocre pitchers who earn $9 – 12 M per season. We’ll never be that awash in prospects.
The bottom line is that, next year, Todd, Mortensen, and Garcia will probably ALL be at least as good as, and probably better than Padilla, Washburn, and Batista AND save the club millions of dollars it can use to shore up true deficiencies. Unless we can genuinely IMPROVE the rotation, it makes no sense to jettison these guys.
As for Rasmus, he should be off limits … period! That, of course, means that Bedard and Sabathia should not become Cardinals.
by chuckb on Jun 26, 2008 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Once again,
Scott Boras is likely to act against his client’s actual “best interest” and chase the top dollar… despite last night’s outing, Kyle Lohse has pitched better for the Cardinals than he has for anyone else. Lohse has said several times that LaDunc’s preparation is better than anything he’s seen elsewhere.
I can make a strong argument that St. Louis is the best place for Lohse competitively... he stands a better chance of winning games, reaching the postseason, etc. with the Cardinals than he does with “fill-in-the-blank”. At what point does Kyle (or any other player) tell Boras, “You work for me, and I want to play HERE, even if it means less money… GOT IT????“
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
by The Ol Goaler on Jun 26, 2008 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How do you know Lohse would say that?
and even if he did, why are you naturally assuming it makes sense for the Cards to sign him? We’ll never get him again on a 1 year, $4.5 M deal. He’ll be 30 next year and I’m not sure that signing a guy whose career best ERA+ is 107 (this year, BTW) to a 4-5 year deal worth $9 – 12 M makes a lot of sense. Can’t Garcia, Todd, or Mortensen be about that good for much, much less?
I’d just as soon let Lohse walk and take the draft pick(s) that the Cards would receive when he signs w/ someone else. If he wants to accept arbitration, that’s fine by me but I don’t really want to sign him to a 4 year deal.
by chuckb on Jun 26, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously, I DON'T know...
that Lohse would say that; I’m waiting for some player, ANY player to tell Boras, “My wish is to play where I have the best chance to win, even if I have to take less money or length of contract.”
Your points about Kyle’s previous performance are certainly valid. However, he’s no longer pitching in a bandbox at home (Cincy and Philly), the defense/pitching “gameplan” suits his skills, and my eyeballs (as well as his current ERA+) tell me he’s a better pitcher now than he’s been previously.
You may very well be right about Garcia/Todd/Mortensen… my point was that it is in Lohse’s best interests to re-sign with the Cardinals. He probably won’t; I doubt the Cards would offer four years.
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
by The Ol Goaler on Jun 26, 2008 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly right
I don’t get the cart leading the horse business. Some of these ballplayers are not the sharpest knives in the drawer, but they should be able to tell their advisers what to do. Boras already screwed Weaver out of a possibly fruitful career. How many more one-year-deal guys will he have to ruin before his tactics are discredited?
by Red in Chicago on Jun 26, 2008 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kenny Rogers
and A-Rod both did this this past offseason.
by chuckb on Jun 26, 2008 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A-Rod did?
So A-Rod told Boras to opt out of his deal, DURING THE WORLD SERIES, shop him around to find out nobody wanted him at $25 million a year, and THEN fired him and signed his own deal with the Yankees when he found out there was no market for him?
I’m not convinced the New York is the “best place” for him, but they’re the only team that was going to pay him that kind of money. He’d be much better off playing on a competitive team in a smaller market where his every move wasn’t scrutinized by crazy Yankee fans. A-Rod didn’t make his decision based on the best place for him, he made his decision based on what team was going to pay him the most, It ended up being a bad deal for him, imo, because he’s probably getting less than market value right now and he’s making less than he would have had he stayed in his contract.
I agree on Rogers, but he’s a 40 something lefty—how many options did he have in the FA market that were going to pay him significantly more than Detroit?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 26, 2008 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Technically Hank Steinbrenner is quoted saying A-Rod passed up more dollars elsewhere...
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
by joker24 on Jun 26, 2008 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hank also said the NL should join the 21st Century
If you’re going to quote someone, make sure that someone isn’t a moran.
by Tackle Box on Jun 26, 2008 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
When it is regarding money I'll believe him, but who cares that's all irrelevant whether he could've gotten more
I love how it became an “A-Rod screwed himself LOLZ” on a record breaking deal. 275 mil!!!!!! Somehow that’s a “loss”.
But Boras isn’t an idiot, I was dead wrong in that I thought A-Rod would get more than he did and maybe it’s cognitive dissonance but if Boras was having him opt out, I have to imagine he had worked the back channels to find a bigger deal. Who knows, who cares.
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
by joker24 on Jun 26, 2008 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well sure...
this is the same guy who says pitchers shouldn’t have to run bases because it’s “old-fashioned”. The minute you’ve started believing a Steinbrenner is the minute you’ve begun to exhibit Alzheimer’s disease. I picture that converstation going something like this:
A-Rod: Hank, I turned down $30 million a year from Boston.
Hank: Really, well thank goodness, I can only afford to pay you less than you were going to make under your old contract. giggling happily
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 26, 2008 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ummm he got MORE per year and 10 flipping years as a 31 year old
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
by joker24 on Jun 26, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wrong
He is getting paid less this year than he would have under his old contract. Had he not opted out, the Yankees would have been forced to pay him an additional $1 million a year this season and an additional $1 million in 2009 and 2010. He was due $27 million for 2008 under his old deal, plus the addtional $1 million, and he is making $27 million this season. The first three years of his contract are a near wash if you take out the signing bonus, which he would have had the option to get after any of those seasons. There were no teams out there in a position to pay him the amount he wanted last year, but there are some teams that could easily have afforded him in the next couple of seasons, which may have driven the price up.
He was simply trying to bank on his MVP at the wrong time. Had he played out his contract in it’s entirety, he probably would have had a better shot at pulling down more money from the Yankees, considering they’re opening a new ballpark and have the contracts of Giambi, Abreu, Pavano, and Damon coming off the books in the next 2 seasons. If he wanted to remain a Yankee, which I don’t believe was the whole idea in the first place, he had been better off playing this season and next season and then opting out before the 2010 season.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 26, 2008 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe A-Rod
was just sticking it to the Yankees? The Rangers were still paying for a chunk of A-Rod’s contract, and when he opted out, the Rangers were off the hook for that money. So, the Yankees ARE paying him more than they were before. It’s just that A-Rod isn’t making more.
by Jumsy on Jun 26, 2008 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Rangers
still had to pick up the last $9 million that they were scheduled to pay.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 27, 2008 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I fucking hate being incorrected by bad information
He gets 27 million this year and a 2 million dollar bonus instead of 27 mil.
He gets 32 million in ‘09 and a 1 million bonus instead of 27 mil.
He gets 32 million in ‘10 and a 1 million bonus instead of 27 mil.
There was 81 million left on his deal and he’s getting 95 over those same three years. Oh and there’s 7 years left after that and 30 million in bonuses he’s probably going to get. If you’re trying to make it as if A-Rod got had, you’re dead wrong….he got 275 million not backloaded.
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
by joker24 on Jun 26, 2008 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
corrected*
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
by joker24 on Jun 26, 2008 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this info is straight from Cot's jerk...
He gets 27 million this year and a 2 million dollar bonus instead of 27 mil.
He gets 32 million in ‘09 and a 1 million bonus instead of 27 mil.
He gets 32 million in ‘10 and a 1 million bonus instead of 27 mil.
You misread apparently—his old contract stipulated that if he did not opt out, he would receive a $1 million addition from the previous year for each year between 2007 – 2010 in which he did not opt out. So, that means $28 million in 2008, $29 million in 2009, and $30 million in 2010.
And my original argument is still correct, he’s making less this year than he would have under his old contract, and it isn’t costing the Yankees any more, because Texas had to pay $9 million this season to offset the rest of the money they owed under his old contract. I said to set aside the signing bonus, because he’s going to receive some type of signing bonus in any year that he opts out of his contract. He’s getting 32 million each of the next two years, but had he opted out of his deal before either of those years in a better market he may have gotten a better deal (bigger signing bonus, more front loaded money, etc.)
His bonuses are tied to his breaking HR milestones—he’s not going to break any of those numbers (660,714,762) in ANY of the next 3 seasons, and he only gets $6 million for each of those milestones. He could easily have negotiated those bonuses at the end of 2009 or 2010 because he won’t have passed those milestones by then anyway.
If he had waited until the end of this year or the end of 2009 then he would have had the Yankees much more over the barrel for two reasons: they are opening a new ballpark next year, and they will have a significant drop in payroll with Abreu, Giambi, and Damon coming off of the books. There also would have been more teams involved since a lot of the big contracts around the league will be off the books at that time.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 27, 2008 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hahaha this is comical
He gets 27 million [in 2008] and a 2 million
27 + 2=29
So, that means $28 million in 2008
29>28
And my original argument is still correct, he’s making less this year than he would have under his old contract
29>28. No.
Setting aside the signing bonus may be the worst case of fuzzy math I’ve seen in awhile to try to prove an argument. He wouldn’t have been able to get more bonus in ‘08 if he opts out in ‘09 (which if you keep reading he wouldn’t have been able to do anyway). So it’s purely structure of money. You’re saying “well he gets more in salary previously in ‘08” when the right answer is “he gets more money in ‘08 with the new contract.” And 7 additional guaranteed years. And more money in the previously guaranteed years. There’s just no way to spin that he got a bad deal. He got the record breaking $ contract of all time mid-loaded. The fact that it wasn’t backloaded like basically every other major league baseball deal makes it roughly the equivalent of a 300 million standard deal. I wonder if he’d been an idiot and backloaded it to hell and gotten 350 million at the same NPV if people would be having this ridiculous argument.
because Texas had to pay $9 million this season to offset the rest of the money they owed under his old contract.
They owed him deferred money that wasn’t in the salary from any part of the time he was with the Yankees so that was irrelevant to the Yanks. He gets that ON TOP of his current and new salary. It’s not relevant to the Yankees with the old contract, it’s not relevant to anyone but Texas/A-Rod with the new contract. PS it’s paid in 3 mil installments over the next three years not lump sum.
if he had waited until the end of this year or the end of 2009
He almost guaranteed would NOT have been able to opt out after ‘08/’09 because that clause was contingent on him NOT receiving more than 1 million than the next highest paid player in baseball and no one is close to him. This in all likelihood was his one chance to opt out because no one was approaching 27 million. As it turns out he likely would’ve been getting 32 million (still one million less than the new contract incidentally) in ‘09/10 because he was scheduled for a 5 mil raise since no one was getting more than him.
Are we having fun yet with the most complicated contract in baseball history?
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
by joker24 on Jun 27, 2008 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A-Rod
decided NY was the best place for him so he fired Boras and negotiated the deal w/ the Yanks himself. That was the question—does anybody ever tell their agent this is where I want to play, dollars be damned? A-Rod did. Maybe he couldn’t have gotten more dollars playing elsewhere. Boras wanted to roll the dice. A-Rod wanted to stay put so he told Boras to stick it.
by chuckb on Jun 26, 2008 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You mean like A-Rod
Or many others really. Boras gets the pub on the guys who don’t re-sign (and rightfully so) but it’s not a 100% thing and it’s certainly not just his guys. It’s the same thing with the draft, you don’t hear about Mark Pawelek or Tyler Greene or Mark McCormick or Matt LaPorta or Ian Kennedy being associated with Boras because they sign quickly, only that OH MY GOD he held out Luke Hochevar for 60% more money what a dick!!!
But people never think of it from the right perspective. The problem with this line of thinking regarding signing where it’s “right” and not for the money is if you sign a 4-5 year deal, by year three the situation is almost assured to look vastly different. You think LaDunc are sticking around for the next 4-5 years? It’s 50-50 they’re around after ‘09 at best. Why again should that play such a huge role into him signing here when it’d be 75%/80% of the contract without Duncan? Boras might be an ass, but he gets too bad a rap for me.
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
by joker24 on Jun 26, 2008 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That isn't our gripe...
It’s that he’s constantly looking for the most money and the best contract all the time, instead of looking at what might be best situation for the player. Weaver may have gotten an offer from the Cardinals for 3 years at $12 million a year or so, but we’ll never know, because he opted to take a one year deal with Seattle at $8 million. Boras doesn’t negotiate, he sets the bar at his price and shops around until someone pays it—if he doesn’t get it he finds a spot to put them for a year, hopes they produce, and then goes looking for the huge payday.
He did this with A-Rod the first time around with Texas. He set the bar really high and Tom Hicks, the moron, went for it. Would A-Rod have been happy if he’d had to play out that contract with a last place team that couldn’t afford free-agents but held on to him to put asses in the seats? I don’t think so.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 26, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Considering he didn't have to
I’d like to know how you hold that against the A-Rod deal in Texas. And Tom Hicks made money off of A-Rod. Their attendance stayed fairly high (despite being terrible…the 73 win team drew better than the 95 win team) which got them a cushy cable deal. Obviously not all of that is attributable to specifically A-Rod but I’m sure he played a large role. I’ll find the interview if you want but Hicks says he’d do the deal again no questions asked.
My point above was why wouldn’t you want to get the most money. I just described how “the best situation” changes after a year or two. If you’re a superstar and signing 6-10 years, the current situation on any given team is probably not going to be static for more than 1-3 years. Most of the contract is not going to be in that “best situation”.
Was Weaver and the other middling guys served as well by going to shitty Seattle coaching or whatever? Maybe maybe not, but Weaver had a 5.18 ERA with the Cards anyway. Good for him that he had 4 good starts in the playoffs, that doesn’t mean he was going to be good the next year with Dunc anyway. He made 40 mil in his career as a mediocre at best pitcher how upset can he be.
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
by joker24 on Jun 26, 2008 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh and not to mention
Signing a below market deal is synonymous with “future trading chip”. The loyalty pendulum, or lack thereof, swings both ways. See Arroyo, Bronson.
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
by joker24 on Jun 26, 2008 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you read these contracts?
His Texas contract included a no-trade clause, so he can’t be a “trading chip” without his approval. But there’s no clause that says they have to trade him if they stink out the joint for four years in a row, which is exactly what happened. He signed a huge contract, was grossly overpaid in terms of market value, then whined and complained when ownership couldn’t build a club to compete around him, even though is monstrous contract was the central part of the issue. Remember, he was willing to TAKE LESS to make a deal work out with Boston, but the union wouldn’t let him, so it was Yankees to the rescue.
If the Texas team was better off with A-Rod, why would they agree to pick up nearly $60 million of his contract to trade him, rendering that money lost, when they were making money with him on the team? That defies any sort of logic. By going to Texas, he was nearly assured that he would not be on a successful ballclub for nearly his entire tenure there, and Boras had to have known that when he was fleecing, I mean negotiating, with the team.
It comes down to this: money doesn’t equal happiness. If you’re a competitive baseball player who wants to win, it’s an awful tough sell to say that a max contract with a shitty team would be desireable. Had the Royals offered Derek Jeter a $220 million dollar deal over the same number of years, would he sign that, or would he stay with the Yankees for $189? I highly doubt he’s going to go play in KC because he’ll be happier in New York and he knows they’ll be competitive every year because of great revenues and deep pockets.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 26, 2008 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Correction
Texas picked up $67 million of his contract and the remaining $4 million of his signing bonus to trade him—totally $71 million, TO GET RID OF HIS CONTRACT!!!
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 26, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is Carlos Lee
a future trading chip or a contractual albatross? I’m going w/ albatross.
by chuckb on Jun 26, 2008 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I vote none of the above
It’s not that I think we’re in rebuilding mode, especially with the second best record in the NL, and a legitimate shot at October baseball. I just think that the guys we currently have could do just as good as any of the “affordables” on the list, without costing any prospects. I don’t know, maybe that sounds like I’m contradicting myself. What I’m trying to say, is that a Lowe or Wolf won’t win many more than a Wellemeyer or Pineiro.
by mikeonthecards on Jun 26, 2008 11:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If that's really what you're trying to say
It doesn’t make a lot of sense. The object is not to replace Wellemeyer or Pineiro but to add another reliable starter to a staff beset with injuries. And if you really think that Boggs, Thompson, or (shudder) Parisi are just as reliable as the guys on this list, you make even less sense.
by Mike G on Jun 26, 2008 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let me rephrase
I definitely don’t think Boggs, Thompson, or Parisi are better than anyone on the list. I’d pitch Aaron Miles before I put Parisi or Thompson back on the hill. But, if a guy like Boggs can hold a spot in the rotation for Wainwright, then I don’t see a need for going outside of the organization for a starter.
With Wainwright, Wellemeyer, Lohse, Pineiro, and Looper in the rotation, I don’t think there’s room for a guy like Wolf or Lowe because they’re marginally better, if at all, and already on the roster.
Does that make sense?
by mikeonthecards on Jun 26, 2008 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
nevermind
totally mis-read. my bad.
by Tackle Box on Jun 26, 2008 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Boggs might be all right
the other two, not so much
Ankiel is Jesus!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 26, 2008 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's interesting that nowhere has there been a discussion
of whether or not Sheffield should’ve been intentionally walked last night. It would have set up the force at 3rd and 2nd, and enabled McClellan to face Renteria, Pudge, and Granderson rather than (potentially) Sheffield, Renteria, and Pudge. It seems to be a pretty close call—hard to fault LaRussa either way. (maybe that’s why there’s been no discussion)
In the bottom of the 9th in a tie game, a walk to Sheffield there would’ve actually increased the Tigers’ win probability slightly - from .817 to .823. That’s under normal conditions. The question then becomes - were these normal conditions? What kind of hitter is Sheffield now? And, is Sheffield better than Granderson? While the IBB would’ve increased the likelihood of a big inning, a big inning was irrelevant in this situation as 1 run would have won the game.
According to The Book, if Sheffield’s wOBA was greater than .400, it made sense to walk him. This year, so far, it’s not, but it has been in every season since 1992 and he has scalded the ball in the 2 games since he returned from the DL. It’s probably a 50/50 play and, w/ the pitch McClellan threw in the middle of the zone, probably wouldn’t have mattered anyway, but it’s a worthwhile discussion to have, IMO. I probably would’ve walked him and taken the chance that either Renteria or Pudge would’ve hit into a DP. As I said, though, it probably wouldn’t have mattered.
by chuckb on Jun 26, 2008 11:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I was going to bring this up last night
But someone yelled “fire La Russa,” it was past midnight, and I just didn’t feel like getting into it. :-)
I think you’re right about this being a call that can be justified either way & most of us here recognize that. I would have had McClellan pitch to him because Sheff was swinging so big. Pudge is an excellent DP candidate, allowing you to be careful to Renteria. But above all, I want McClellan to think of himself as a go-to get-em-out pitcher. As it was, the pitch Sheffield hit probably would have been smacked by any of the four Tigers in question.
And we see that w/ McClellan. He’ll occasionally launch a weak slider over the heart of the plate that don’t get past most ML hitters.
by random on Jun 26, 2008 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I said they should just hit him
because it clearly looked like they were trying to in that AB. Then, they gave him something to swing at and BLAM!
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 26, 2008 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They weren't trying to hit him
they were jamming him and trying to keep him from extending his arms.
by Tackle Box on Jun 26, 2008 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Win probability
I think this situation blows a few holes in win probablity. Walking Sheffied does not improve the Tigers chance of winning. Period. It decreases it or keeps it steady. But it doesn’t increase it.
Anyway, i felt the correct move was to walk Sheff. However, it looked to me LaRussa might have been employing a different strategy that McClellan failed to execute. I’m talking about the un-inententional walk. You might ask, why then don’t you just walk him? Well, if you give Sheff a chance to acquire a strike or two by being overly aggressive, you might be able to strike him out. And, ultimately, that’s what happened. The count’ went 3-2, and I immediately said “Throw that nasty curve in the dirt”. This way you try and get Sheff swinging and if he doesn’t, you walk him, set up the dp and no big deal.
What happened then, I’m not sure. I didn’t go back to look, but I don’t think Mac threw the curve and whatever it was, Sheff ripped to the outfield gap. You could question whether or no Sheff is the right guy to try that stategy on, and I don’t know. You definately have to execute your pitches perfectly or else you pay for it. Either way, it looked like Mac tried to throw one by Sheff and I think we all knew that wasn’t going to happen.
by Tackle Box on Jun 26, 2008 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you're right
Just don’t throw him anything good to hit.
Can work on a guy like Sheff who is so aggressive, but it can also backfire because he’s pretty darn good.
by birdo rojo on Jun 26, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Justify your comment
“Walking Sheffield does not improve the Tigers chance of winning. Period.” Where do you get that from?
Do you think I just made those numbers up?
The home team’s win probabililty w/ a runner on 2nd and no one out in the 9th inning is .817. The home team’s WPA w/ runners on 1st and 2nd and no one out is .823. Period! Now is it that simple? Of course not. These are averages over time and don’t tell us about the specific circumstances regarding who the hitters are. It doesn’t know that you would pitch to Renteria, Pudge, and Granderson rather than Sheffield, Renteria, and Pudge but there’s probably not a lot of difference in the hitters. If you math it out, it’s going to be close to a break-even proposition but, unless you do that, you can’t say, definitively, that “Walking Sheffield does not improve the Tigers chance of winning.”
This situation doesn’t at all blow holes in win probability. I guess if you want to just make blanket statements that are completely unsupported by facts you can say that it does. The WPA tables are averages, computed over time, not the 10 commandments. To further break it down, you have to look at the specific players involved but the WPA tables are a pretty good baseline from which to start.
by chuckb on Jun 26, 2008 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
50/50 too me and I am too lazy to look into stuff......
TLR trusted him in Boston to Face JD Drew instead of walking him, so I guess he trusted him again
by ICbirdfan on Jun 26, 2008 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gotta agree with the red baron here
I always considered 2008 a “transition” year to put us in position for 2009, as the red baron puts it above; to me, the team’s W-L record and overachieving performance this season have been pure icing on the cake. Maintaining flexibility is key; improve on the margins this year (e.g., a new LOOGY) where the costs are minimal, but don’t give up several big future pieces for a high-cost rental like Bedard or Sebathia. (After the Carp contract, do we really think Moz and ownership are going to commit to another huge, long-term deal to a starter, even w/the all the money coming off the books after this year from expiring contracts like Mulder, Encarnaction, Looper, etc.?)
lboros is probably right that Lowe would be the best fit, if the club really feels like they need pitching now to stay in the playoff chase. (As bgh notes above, talk of trading for a starting pitcher might tell us a lot about what the club really feels they can expect from Wainwright, Mulder, Carp, and Clement the rest of this year). And I suppose he’s right that our farm depth is sufficient now to afford giving up one good prospect.
So that raises the question: who’s still untouchable in our system? Rasmus, obviously. Jaime Garcia and Jess Todd, too. Beyond that, who else?
by DCRedbird on Jun 26, 2008 11:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jay, Wallace, Salas (for now), Mortenson would be my adds to that list.
I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang
by AdjustedExpectations on Jun 26, 2008 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jay is eminently touchable, IMO
He’d be a great guy to throw in, if possible, in a trade. I don’t know about Salas or Mortensen. I’d definitely rather have Todd and Garcia than Mortensen, so I guess I’d be willing to trade him in the right deal. But if we could get something good for Jay, I’d trade him in a heartbeat and take advantage of the way he’s played in the 1st half.
by chuckb on Jun 26, 2008 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He has upped his value
but he’s also a 2010 prospect, and how many of those in the OF do we have signed up as of now, and going into 2010? Razza? Luddy, Rick would both need contracts, wouldn’t Skip?
Jay gives us an out, a prospect in the wings. That’s why I’d like to hold onto him, instead of knowing he’s got solid trade stock.
I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang
by AdjustedExpectations on Jun 26, 2008 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and Mort
would be considerations I s’pose, depending on the deal.
just think that we should hold onto some of that pitching talent, unless we can get something cost controlled in return. A rental FA for the rest of the year doesn’t qualify. a blocked MI prospect does, however.
I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang
by AdjustedExpectations on Jun 26, 2008 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that he's a better prospect
than he was coming into the season, but I wouldn’t call him untouchable either. I’d love to see if we could put him in a trade for a young SS or otherwise take advantage of his improvement this year. But I also think that he’s fairly easy to replace (Shane Robinson, perhaps?).
by chuckb on Jun 26, 2008 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
dunno about Shane
I see Jay as a Skip(everything else) + Barton(speed) type of prospect.
I’m just trying to look at a few things in play, as of right now the OF starts to empty out in 2010, which is a liability. – but one down the road.
But it seems in turn on both of our last posts we both are on the same page when it comes to what we’d be wanting to use them for. cost controlled talent at other positions we have sore spots and not rentals.
I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang
by AdjustedExpectations on Jun 26, 2008 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
John Jay is a guy that could easily be moved for a potential starter. I also think that Anderson is a guy that could be dangled out there as well. He’s a good hitting catching prospect that will be stuck behind Yadi for at least 4-5 more years if he stays with the Cardinals. Cleveland has a catcher that will be hitting FA (I think) soon and who is having a sub-par year to boot. They could also use a good hitting outfielder like Jay, Duncan (if he ever gets it figured out), or Mather.
Jay has been very streaky in the minors and the Cards have a wealth of outfielders, so he’s got to be a guy that the organization would look to trade, considering that someone might wager that his first half is legit.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 26, 2008 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wallace?
I know what you mean by untouchable, but is Wallace even eligible to be traded (once he gets signed)?
Did they change the rule that you can’t trade someone until a year after they are drafted?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jun 26, 2008 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maddux?
Just throwing this out there, but what about Greg Maddux? He is pitching lights out right now and getting no run support. The grapevine says he might waive his no trade to go to a contender. If we are looking for a dependable guy, there is no better, particularly if we have already conceded it would be a rental. He can’t cost that much compared to these other guys…
by rthorat on Jun 26, 2008 11:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good call...
but how many times can you shear a sheep before it feels like it’s being skinned? (Edmonds for Freese, the Woody Williams deal, etc.)
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 26, 2008 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pujols Dh-ing today, batting 3rd
Stav and Duncan still on the club, Flores to DL
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Jun 26, 2008 11:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Flores is going to be released
I think. Strauss indicated in last week’s chat that he had this road trip to “get right.” He isn’t.
by Red in Chicago on Jun 26, 2008 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if this is an
“Izzy to the DL” situation where he hopes to fix himself in time to save his job. Before everyone gets all caught up—his brother isn’t any better. If he was, he’d have beaten out Villone.
by chuckb on Jun 26, 2008 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ron
screamed out of the gate this year and looked brilliant. Sadly enough, for him and us. Regression to the mean came smacking into him like a Mac truck down a steep grade.
I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang
by AdjustedExpectations on Jun 26, 2008 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Apple makes trucks now?
Geez, I thought the phone thing was taking it a bit too far.
[/a**hole] :-)
"Give a man a fire, and he’ll be warm for a night. Set him on fire and he’ll be warm for the rest of his life."
by BigMOman on Jun 26, 2008 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If it was from a Apple...
it would be the Mac iTruck and would feature a clickwheel to replace the steering column….
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 26, 2008 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think he's regressing to his mean at all
Look at his numbers against lefities – it’s only when he has to go out of his strength and face righties that he runs into trouble.
vs. Lefties
Avg. .159, OBP .273, SLG, .250
He’s our LOOGY – he just keeps getting asked to pitch innings rather than outs
by birdo rojo on Jun 26, 2008 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he had a .052 era over 25ish innings and had a k/bb ratio that dwarfed Perez, that is where the regression came in.
I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang
by AdjustedExpectations on Jun 26, 2008 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough
Definitely regressing to his mean against right handers. Overall though, I’m pretty happy with his performance, as long as he isn’t asked to pitch innings.
by birdo rojo on Jun 26, 2008 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can we send Izzy back out
on a rehab assignment?
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 26, 2008 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
once he’s up, dl or waivers iirc
I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang
by AdjustedExpectations on Jun 26, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You mean Mr. 1 ER in 6.1 IP?
He’s been heart attack-inducing, but he’s avoided the big inning, something he wasn’t doing earlier this season. I know, I know, small sample size…...
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on Jun 26, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he's pitched well...
He started rough in the inning in Boston, but rallied and ended up getting out of it with good pitching…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 26, 2008 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In Boston
and last night he got a runner on with less than two outs and tried pasting the outside corner to a lefty to try to induce the DP, neither time he could locate.
But he can locate it to a righty, oddly enough
I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang
by AdjustedExpectations on Jun 26, 2008 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He creates the big inning
and then avoids it. He got HAMMERED yesterday when he did throw strikes.
And he picked up yet another blown save.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 26, 2008 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sounds alot like the Izzy of old
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on Jun 26, 2008 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Flores ankle hurts
“Hey Flores, you’re on the DL”
“Why coach, I ain’t hurt”
kick “OW!”
“Your ankle hurts now”
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Jun 26, 2008 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How about rotation stability?
When was the last year the team’s rotation was essentially the same as the one the year before? 2004, I believe. 2005 added only Mulder. But for the past three seasons, the rotation has been a patchwork of old and new. Every year is a crapshoot—and one increasingly relying upon the considerable talents of Dave Duncan to fix up veterans with problems. If the club is to get on the the road towards building a dynasty, it needs to think about multi-year deals for pitchers.
by Red in Chicago on Jun 26, 2008 11:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Seems like good logic...
Now name me a team that is carrying three pitchers on long term deals that has a “dynasty” going on right now. You can’t, because there aren’t any at the present time. In fact, a lot of the teams offering those deals are finding themselves strapped down because of them. The Yankees (Pavano), Giants (Zito), Seattle (Batista, Washburn), Dodgers (Schmidt), Braves (Hampton), and so on.
The Birds offered Carp an extension and he’s now going to miss the better part of the first two seasons of that deal We all hope he comes back effective, but that’s no sure thing and the club has another $60 million invested in him over the next 4 years. They also offered a more reasonable extension to WW, and that might be the best contract in the league in a couple of years if he continues to progress as a starter.
Duncan’s been pretty good at fixing up veterans, so why not play to his strength as well. I’d rather have the payroll flexibility to jettison guys like Tomko, Wells, and Williams when they don’t pitch well than be stuck with an injured big-name starter with a giant contract.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 26, 2008 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry didn't read your post
You said 3 pitchers on long term contracts- sorry
by birdo rojo on Jun 26, 2008 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Boston is close...
But how many of the starters from last year were on the team in 2004? Better yet, how many of the current Red Sox starters pitching an INNING in the 2004 ALCS and WS? The answer is one, Tim Wakefield, and Wakefield and Schilling were the only pitching holdovers from the 2004 team. Lowe, Pedro, and Arroyo are all out of Boston and Schilling’s career is probably over. They avoided giving any of those guys large, long-term contracts, and look at how Pedro and Lowe have turned out compared to what they were able to replace them with.
Now they’ve built their rotation around 1 starter on a long term contract,(Dice-K), 1 good/great starter on a shorter contract with more due annually (Beckett), 2 kids off the farm (Bucholz and Lester), 1 reclamation project making $1.7 million, and Wakefield on a series of recurring 1 yr, $4 million contracts which the club could not pick up after any one season.
In terms of spending money wisely, the Red Sox have one of the best front-offices in baseball. They gave up a stud prospect (Hanley) to gain the best postseason pitcher in my lifetime (Beckett). They currently have only one contract longer than 5 years (Manny Ramirez), so they don’t get stuck paying an injured veteran who can’t produce. Many people, including me, thought they were crazy to offer JD Drew $70 million over 5 years, but it sure seems to be working out for them right now!
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 26, 2008 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly...
And none of them are dynasties. You don’t need long-term contracts to build stability. But you do you need to have some stability in the rotation so you don’t scramble for pitchers every year.
Also, the elephant in the room in this is Duncan. If he and Tony leave after next year, the one-year program is not going to work any more. The team needs to stop treating starters the way they do (did?) second-basemen. They are not fungible commodities.
by Red in Chicago on Jun 26, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shouldn't we be praying Mulder comes back strong?
To avoid the team making a knee jerk move of trading top prospects for a starter? Of course, why trade for starting pitching when you have Brad Thompson waiting in the wings!
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 26, 2008 12:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
For one, Brad Thompson sucks.
Although I think it would be nice to see a healthy and effective Mulder, I don’t think the Cards should trade for a starter, even if he doesn’t return. And on The Brad, just say no!
by mikeonthecards on Jun 26, 2008 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still think...
the Giants would give up one of their young starters for a package of position players, both prospects and pre-arb major leaguers. Sell high on Ludwick?
by guayzimi on Jun 26, 2008 12:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
heard they were looking for a LH hitting 1B.
Do we have anyone like that?
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Jun 26, 2008 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Almost
We have a left handed swinging first baseman. He just doesn’t hit. So close.
by mikeonthecards on Jun 26, 2008 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ludwick crushes...
righties and surely he could handle first.
by guayzimi on Jun 26, 2008 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wholeheartedly agree Guayzimi...
brilliant idea. Ludwick, Anderson, and Jay for Jonathan Sanchez and Alex Hinshaw.
Get Sabean on the phone right away…
by guayzimi on Jun 26, 2008 12:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Is Mulder a viable LOOGY?
It’s been mentioned before, but I believe mostly in jest. However, I can see why using him in the bullpen to get his arm slot issue addressed is not crazy idea. Is Mulder really expecting to come up and be given a secure starting spot for long? Given how well others have pitched and our record, there’s less of an opportunity for him. Plus they can’t keep doing this DL to 30-day rehab dance any longer (can they?).
With Villone our only lefty in the bullpen Tony’s going to treat him like one of his rescued animals and bring him in at high-leverage Lefty vs. Lefty situations – scary. I am not comforted by the thought of them bringing up Flores 2.0. Do we have anyone else?
by enoscountry on Jun 26, 2008 12:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Strauss indicated "no"
on yesterday’s show. He’s a starter, not a LOOGy
by Red in Chicago on Jun 26, 2008 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mulder could be a possibility.
Flores 2.0….Ha!
by mikeonthecards on Jun 26, 2008 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lineups
B. Barton, LF
A. Miles, 3B
A. Pujols, DH
T. Glaus, 1B
R. Ludwick, RF
R. Ankiel, CF
J. LaRue, C
A. Kennedy, 2B
B. Ryan, SS
So confusing.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 26, 2008 12:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Everyone
on the team has to play first this year. It’s a new TLR hazing ritual!
by Red in Chicago on Jun 26, 2008 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
why not miles at SS, ryan at 3rd?
is Ryan not doing well at the hot corner, or is Miles just that much worse in SS.
by enoscountry on Jun 26, 2008 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ryan's only errors
of the year are at 3B. It’s a wash.
by Evilfrog on Jun 26, 2008 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Miles at short...
is a bad idea. He has no range. First would be best, but he’s 5’8. He’s both vertically and horizontally challenged. Maybe he should be a coach.
by guayzimi on Jun 26, 2008 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is just silly...
Miles is too short to play first. Ok, play Stavinoha over there.
by guayzimi on Jun 26, 2008 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Miles is at 3rd?
what the f*&k! I just don’t get this! A lefty’s on the mound so let’s not play lefties like Skip or Duncan, so instead we’ll play Adam Kennedy? What’s w/ the Kennedy love-fest? It’s irrelevant that he has a few hits the last week or two. He’s terrible. Does he just not want to use Pujols at 1st? Duncan’s in a slump but he’s still better than Kennedy! Now you’ve got Miles at 3rd? Are we just going to hope they don’t hit any over there? Why don’t you play Glaus at 3rd and Stavinoha or Ludwick at 1st if you don’t want to use Duncan.
Get Kennedy out of the lineup or, at least, don’t play all 4 of your worst hitters (LaRue, Miles, Kennedy, and Ryan) at the same freaking time! Why don’t you use Molina at 1st if you don’t want to use him behind the plate?
by chuckb on Jun 26, 2008 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stav...
hasn’t played first since 2005 at Quad Cities, and Ludwick has never played first in his career. This is why Joe Mather has to be on the roster.
by guayzimi on Jun 26, 2008 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Glaus hadn't ever played 1B
until a month ago.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 26, 2008 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True enough...
I’m just trying to understand LaRussa’s thinking. Probably not the most fruitful use of my time…
by guayzimi on Jun 26, 2008 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kennedy vs. Robertson
I’m guessing Tony’s going with the guy who has seen Robertson some over someone who hasn’t seen him at all, even though Kennedy has only 8 ABs vs Nate.
by enoscountry on Jun 26, 2008 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That killed me...
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 26, 2008 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe no one would notice
If both Miles and Stavinoha both wore 12. The little one could play defense, and the big one could hit.
by mikeonthecards on Jun 26, 2008 12:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
if anyway askes
He could just say he changes shoes when he comes out of the field
by Evilfrog on Jun 26, 2008 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Guess TLR wants to set a record
for at least having 150 different line-ups in a year.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Jun 26, 2008 12:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hmm
New gameday 3-D…we’ll see how it goes
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on Jun 26, 2008 12:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
frickin sweet!
Although Whitey is a little stiff.
by paposse on Jun 26, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Game thread?
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on Jun 26, 2008 12:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Up now, nevermind
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy and Randy Flores!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on Jun 26, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I say thee nay
on Bedard. From what I understand from the Seattle press and ex-brass, he’s got the makeup of a pinecone. he has no interest in helping the team win or even be a great pitcher, he’s just happy to be a good pitcher. He’s been a clubhouse cancer, from what I understand. Although Seattle seems pretty desperate to unload him, I can’t imagine their asking price being just a real good bargain .
Amaury translates into "Punisher of Spheroids" in the lost tongue of Atlantis. Marti means "Belgian Waffle."
by erik on Jun 26, 2008 12:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I like Randy Wolf
of the bunch, but I would much rather us go after a really good lefthanded reliever such as Brian Fuentes or Damaso Marte. In the post-season, rotation depth doesn’t matter much anyways, and we’ll theoretically have Wainwright, Carpenter, Mulder, and a chance of having Clement back. A post-season rotation of Wainwright-Wellemeyer-Looper-Lohse would actually be pretty decent. Stick with that for now.
by rockin the red on Jun 26, 2008 1:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Welly won't last 3 or 4 inning
his elbow is already barking. Anti noninflammatory’s are wearing thin already.
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Jun 26, 2008 1:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I have been thinking
about this trade for a while now. It makes sense in some ways, but it could really backfire. I was thinking AREY for Rich Hill swap straight up no bullshit. Hill has fallen out of favor with the Cubs and can’t seem to get over that in AAA. He is really struggling. However he at one time like AREY was a top prospect. I think it could really work out for both teams.
"It is easy to be brave from a safe distance." - Aesop
by OKCardsfan on Jun 26, 2008 3:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hill
He’s completely lost it. I was at the Iowa game a week ago and he didn’t make it out of the first inning while giving up 6 runs. I believe he walked three while getting only two outs, and he never topped 88 on the radar gun when he used to consistently hit 93-94 when he was at Iowa a few years ago. The kid simply can’t find the plate anymore, so I think the Cubs would probably welcome a trade to get a guy like Reyes, who’s been effective at Memphis at least, to part with Hill. I’m not sure they’d do it straight up, but I don’t think I like the trade anyway—hard to say if Hill is ever going to get his control or confidence back.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 27, 2008 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is any deal for one of the A's numerous starters autoamtically excluded?
Despite being a rebuilding year, the A’s are over .500 and a few games behind the Rays in the WC and 5 behind the Angels in the west. Tons of pitching, but offense is a problem. Indeed, the A’s have 6 good starter, and several should be available for trades.
Rich Harden
Justin Duchscherer
Joe Blanton
Greg Smith
Dana Eveland
Chad Gaudin
facepalm.jpg
by Zonis on Jun 26, 2008 5:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I see no reason for them to trade anyone but Cupcakes
and even then it’d have to be an overpay.
Give you're propers to the all time rec leader.
by JI on Jun 26, 2008 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why are we concentrating on starters?
And not the bullpen? I know it may sound like I’m reacting to today’s giveaway, but I would have said the same thing before the game. How many games do our relievers have to lose before we begin worrying about them? Sure, we’re experiencing some growing pains, and things will get better for the bullpen, but what’s the point of trading for another starter when our bullpen is incapable of finishing, anyway?
by rob is back on Jun 26, 2008 6:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Whoever get demoted goes to the pen, the pen is improved as a result.
Give you're propers to the all time rec leader.
by JI on Jun 26, 2008 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
let's get a lights out bullpen
before we worry about more starters
Ankiel is Jesus!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 26, 2008 8:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd much rather have lights out starters.
Give you're propers to the all time rec leader.
by JI on Jun 27, 2008 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Holliday
Let go for Holliday and then sign him to a long term deal. If we score more runs it will give the starters more room to pitch deeper into games and then we won’t have to rely on the bullpen as much.
by Bahamaredbird on Jun 28, 2008 12:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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