Pitchers lack of aggression on 2-2 count?

by totalloser on Jun 25, 2008 4:49 PM EDT

I feel that Cards' pitchers (Wainer excepted) are not aggressive enough on the 2-2 count which leads to a full count or worse a BB. Sometimes I see Moina clearly setting up outside the zone on a 2-2, so I wonder if this is Duncan's philosophy vs. the pitchers themselves. I wanted to compare our pitchers to the rest of the league, but it turns out to be more than I could handle right now. But I did manage to compile some data on the Cards' pitchers. (BTW, thanks to houstoncardinal and astrostl pointing me to data at baseball-reference). The data is a bit old (by a few days).

Pitcher	G	PA	AB	R	H	HR	BB	BA	OPS	BAbip	NE/2-2	BB/2-2	OBP
Wainer	13	58	54	3	8	0	4	0.148	0.429	0.267	32.76	7.41	0.207
Looper	14	88	79	8	20	1	8	0.253	0.684	0.275	30.68	10.13	0.33
Lohse	15	88	76	2	16	0	11	0.211	0.557	0.271	39.77	14.47	0.307
Colonel	14	77	68	4	14	2	9	0.206	0.666	0.273	36.36	13.24	0.299
Villone	19	36	29	4	5	1	5	0.172	0.581	0.286	47.22	17.24	0.306
Flores	14	22	17	7	6	1	4	0.353	1.147	0.556	36.36	23.53	0.5
Izzy	13	20	14	3	4	0	5	0.286	0.807	0.364	45.00	35.71	0.45
Franklin	17	23	20	3	3	1	2	0.15	0.611	0.167	39.13	10.00	0.261
McCle.	21	35	32	1	4	0	2	0.125	0.325	0.2	34.29	6.25	0.2
Springer	16	21	19	1	4	0	2	0.211	0.602	0.333	42.86	10.53	0.286
Perez	7	12	12	0	1	0	0	0.083	0.167	0.125	25.00	0.00	0.083

All the columns are standard except for NE/2-2 and BB/2-2. NE/2-2 is the percent of time when the at-bat did not end after the 2-2 pitch. I computed it by subtracting the "after 2-2 count" with the "2-2 count" at bats. And BB/2-2 is the number of BBs after reaching a 2-2 count.

My thoughts:

1. My personal impressions on lack of aggression is probably wrong. As a fan, I get so frustrated seeing a BB after a 2-2. I think those moments stick with me more often than other cases when the hitter gets out. I thought that the percentage was over 50%, but I was wrong.

2. OBP of 0.5 and 0.45 for Flores and Izzy are disturbing. I think Izzy's fixed now. But TLR is still very supportive of Flores. What bothers me about Flores is that he gives away bases. I'd rather see him give up single dingers consecutively than walking a few and then give up a big one. I liked Looper's approach last night where he gave up a few single dingers and was aggressive.

3. Villone, Flores, and Izzy have the highest NE/2-2 (47 36 and 45%). I think this data somewhat supports my frustration that they throw away the 2-2 pitch. I wish they would not waste a pitch when many hitters are not chasing.

What are your thoughts?

0 recs | Comment 12 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

for context

the national league averages this year on 2-2 are .188 / .193 / .283; the cards’ pitchers are yielding averages of .199 / .209 / .331.

by lboros on Jun 25, 2008 8:59 PM EDT 0 recs

Analysis...

I think it’s tough to say because you have a lot of variation in the approach that different pitchers take to different hitters.

For example, if I’m Villone or Flores and I have a 2-2 count on a RH hitter with a lefty due to bat next, I’m not probably going to be as aggressive on the 2-2 count to the RH hitter because I have a better matchup behind him and I’m also probably going to get hit pretty hard if I’m aggressive in the strike zone and miss location.

Also, the Cards really don’t have any pitchers who blow people away with fastballs, so I think that also may have something to do with the data you’re seeing. 2-2 is really a fastball count, especially with runners on, because you don’t want the run the count full and give a team a chance to put runners in motion. If you’re interested in this topic further, I’d suggest you go to FanGraphs and see how many 2-2 fastballs are being thrown by Cardinal pitchers. I would venture to say that there are a lot more breaking balls thrown because nobody on the staff has an overpowering fastball.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jun 25, 2008 11:44 PM EDT 0 recs

Unintentional Intentional Walks?

Thanks for the tip on FanGraphs. I’ll see if I can dig up anything. I thought I had looked already…

If I am reading it correctly, you are suggesting that Cards are issuing “unintentional intentional” walks in order to get to better matchups? I am not sure if I agree with the approach. I think the walks, at least recently, have lead to crooked innings by the opposition. I don’t think it’s a good idea to get baserunners on when the lead is small, which is what has happened with our recent loses. I have no complaints about breaking balls on 2-2 as long as they are thrown for strikes, or at least attempted. But I have seen a lot of them thrown way off the plate which does not induce the batters to swing.

born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red

by totalloser on Jun 26, 2008 12:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

No...

What I’m saying is that a pitcher is going to make “his pitch” in those situations, rather than just pound the strike-zone with a fastball to “be aggressive”. You know you have a better matchup with a lefty, because they don’t hit as well against you, so you’re going to make the batter hit your pitch on 2-2 rather than pumping it in there for a strike that he could potentially hammer. I’d rather they make two pitcher’s pitches on 2-2 and 3-2 and give up a walk when they miss than have them throw a strike that has a likelihood of getting hammered into a gap or over the wall.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jun 26, 2008 2:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

slightly off the subject...

but it is my one and only complaint about Yadi… that he slides around, left or right, behind the plate too much. And he especially does this on a two-strike count. As if the whole world doesn’t know that we are trying to sucker the hitter into swinging at a two-strike pitch out of the strike zone.
I see this most every Cardinal game I get to see on TV: Yadi sets up way inside, or outside; the pitcher throws it there; it’s a ball…YAWN.
Fourstick makes a great point tho… we really don’t have a very “power”ful relief corp, maybe excepting Perez.
But I still wish Yadi would keep his butt still. I don’t recall Matheny being so extreme or obvious.

by the Tewk on Jun 26, 2008 12:28 AM EDT 0 recs

Couple things from an ex-pitcher

Tewk, the reason Yadi sets up so far out of the zone on two strikes is that he wants to make sure the pitcher doesn’t leave something fat over the plate and give up a hit. I’m not a fan of “wasting” on 0-2 pitch, but I want to make sure that if I miss, I miss out of the strike zone.

For example, if Flores is in, and he’s got an 0-2 count on the (obviously left-handed) hitter, Yadi’s gonna set up in the right-handed batter’s box to make sure Flores doesn’t hang that slider in the middle of the plate. 0-2 is a count to make a pitcher’s pitch, and let the batter get himself out.

Now, are far as 2-2 counts go, on 2-2 you want to throw your best, nastiest pitch. The reason for this is that pitchers want to “win the evens,” meaning win the even counts: 0-0, 1-1, 2-2. The pitcher has to realize that on a 2-2 count, the batter is going to be in more of a “swing” mode because he doesn’t want to strike out. Therefore, the pitcher wants to throw his best pitch in the best spot to get the batter to chase. If the pitcher just lays a fastball into a hitter in protect mode, the chances are greater he gets a lucky base hit. The “blind squirrel finds nut” theory.

Bottom line, any count other than 3-2 where the batter has 2 strikes is a pitcher’s count, and the pitcher needs to make his pitch.

by Jhusk on Jun 26, 2008 12:40 AM EDT 0 recs

Agreed on the 2-2 best pitch

My complaint is about a wasted 2-2 pitch at the first 2-2 count. If a batter keeps on fighting things off, then I could understand a pitcher finally missing way off the plate. I guess is not just missing way off, but the fact that pitches are not deceptive enough. I don’t think anyone on the staff has a really wicked split finger that would induce a bad chase.

I actually have no problems with the “blind squirrel” happening, and the batter getting lucky. I just hate seeing the Cards hand over runs. I want to the opposition to earn them, every and each one.

born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red

by totalloser on Jun 26, 2008 12:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

agreed

Similar to what Sherrill did to Fukudome on Tuesday night. Came up and in and nearly hit him, then went fastball away, slider away, slider away to strike him out. The difference is that Sherrill’s slider is a fantastic out-pitch, whereas Villone and Flores don’t throw 95 with a great slider. They have to nit-pick a lot more near the strike zone.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jun 26, 2008 2:06 PM EDT up 0 recs

Who saw the 2-2 pitchout with Granderson on first last night?

So dumb.

by mojowo11 on Jun 26, 2008 10:44 AM EDT 0 recs

That was odd to say the least!!!

by ICbirdfan on Jun 26, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

Your analysis seems to imply

that those w/ a high BB/2-2 rate are nibbling rather than going after hitters. I wonder if it’s not that they are less likely to have an “out pitch” than those w/ low BB/2-2 rates. Look at those w/ the lower rates—Wainwright, McClellan, Franklin, Looper, Perez (too few PA’s to count, though) and Springer. Wainwright, McClellan, and Springer all throw hard and have good hard sliders. I’d be willing to be that Wellemeyer would be in this list as well.

Izzy and Flores haven’t been able to get their “out pitch” over for strikes so they’ve been trying to survive w/ their secondary pitches. Maybe the difference in the numbers goes straight to the differences in the pitchers’ respective repertoires. In other words, those that seem to be “nibbling” aren’t really nibbling—they’ve just got no way to get the batters out other than to make them chase something out of the zone.

Interesting stuff here, BTW. Glad you followed up w/ it.

by chuckb on Jun 27, 2008 12:03 AM EDT 0 recs