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Game 75 Open Thread: June 20, 2008

Birdos_avatar_tiny by lboros on

St. Louis Cardinals @ Boston Red Sox


Lohse Wakefield
8-2, 3.77 4-4, 4.19

the last time st louis played in fenway, their starting pitcher was matt morris. the cards have played 5 games in boston during this decade; they've been outscored 29-44 . . . . . . overflow thread is programmed to open up at about 7:45 central.

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2 lineups. 2 threads

I posted it in the other one, so one for here too
Yadi to DH now
AK to 2B

Iz
Skip
Lud
Ank
Santa
Dunc
YAdi
AK
Stache

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Jun 20, 2008 6:39 PM EDT   0 recs

I like that line up so much better.

But I dont know why. It’s not like replace Grit with LaRue is going to score more runs. But at least the D is better.

by Evilfrog on Jun 20, 2008 6:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

At least Yadi gets to contribute

with less risk of getting hurt again.

by DriverZn on Jun 20, 2008 6:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

it's better, but AK still has no biz being in the line up

Barton & BOOG should be at DH & 2nd

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Jun 20, 2008 7:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

As long as Larue doesn't get hurt or something

Then there are major issues. Either way, this AL roadstand is really going to illuminate how thin this bench really is right now, isn’t it?

by Merry CRasmus on Jun 20, 2008 7:27 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No worries about LaRue!

Miles is on the bench!!

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Jun 20, 2008 7:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

By golly there's the answer

Molina to catcher and Miles takes over Larue’s batting spot AND throws that sweet 75 mph heat on the mound!!! We have our contingency plan – still hope it doesn’t come to that.

by Merry CRasmus on Jun 20, 2008 7:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah

the only thing that can happen if LaRue gets hurt is Molina goes into catch and we have to have the pitcher’s bat for themselves.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Jun 20, 2008 7:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Would that be the worst thing?

With the way our position players are hitting, I’m not sure it would be…

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on Jun 20, 2008 7:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

question for the statheads

is LaRue just a flat-out bad hitter or will his production pick up due to the law of averages?

by nota bene on Jun 20, 2008 7:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

good luck getting a stathead to accept the law of averages! :)

FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG

by astrostl on Jun 20, 2008 7:40 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

OK

let me rephrase the question then….are LaRue’s peripheral stats indicating that he’s as bad as his batting average indicates?

by nota bene on Jun 20, 2008 7:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

should have mentioned that i was gonna type up a response after being a smartass :)

FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG

by astrostl on Jun 20, 2008 7:50 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think maybe he was searching for the phrase

“regressing to the mean” as opposed to the law of averages

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on Jun 20, 2008 7:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I was under the impression

the two phrases referred to the same thing, but evidently not….

by nota bene on Jun 20, 2008 7:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Close

Just how the terms are viewed by statisticians and regular people.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_to_the_Mean

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on Jun 20, 2008 7:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

lol

anyway, yes, he should have had more hits than he has had, the last three years. If he had gotten the same number of hits on GB. LD and FB as the major-league-average hitter, his average over the last 3 years would have been .262.

IE he’s had 131 GB’s; a GB goes for a hit 24.5% of the time, so he should have had 32 GB hits. 117 FB’s at 21.7% says he should have had 25 hits, and 57 LD’s at 73.4% is 42 hits. Add his 13 home runs and that is 112 hits, in 427 AB’s (.262).

"the hardest decision to make is to do nothing; there is a terrible temptation to interfere." -gen patton

by SleepyCA on Jun 20, 2008 7:50 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

BTW this assumes a BABIP of 0.00 on infield fly balls

and doesn’t consider bunt hits, which Larue has had none of. Infield hits are captured by the GB rate.

"the hardest decision to make is to do nothing; there is a terrible temptation to interfere." -gen patton

by SleepyCA on Jun 20, 2008 7:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=337&position=C

career .232/.319/.401, so he never was a blazer but approaches league average OBP. BABIP is batting average on balls in play, showing how often non-home run balls actually put into play turn into a hit. a simple but effective formula to predict it is to add .120 to the player’s LD%. that number is usually called eBABIP, or expected BABIP. if eBABIP is lower than BABIP, it indicates that the player is getting unlucky on their line drives (which convert to a hit about 75% of the time on average).

2007 larue eBABIP, BABIP: .291, .212
2008 larue eBABIP, BABIP: .303, .203

so on that basis, it looks like he’s getting really unlucky. there’s a developing consistency to the underperformance that could make one question whether there’s something mechanically wrong. looking at other stuff, his GB% is down (good), his FB% is up (good), but his HR/FB% is way down – 3.4% against a career 13.4%. it doesn’t seem like it could possibly stay that low, but everything reads like he’s not hitting the ball with authority. to ultimately answer your question though, if he were given steady at-bats i would expect him to improve.

FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG

by astrostl on Jun 20, 2008 7:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

or what you said.

"the hardest decision to make is to do nothing; there is a terrible temptation to interfere." -gen patton

by SleepyCA on Jun 20, 2008 7:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

likewise :)

FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG

by astrostl on Jun 20, 2008 7:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

thanks for the responses everybody

I was at the game yesterday and it seemed like several guys stung the ball right at defenders (or defenders made strong plays to make an out), and I think LaRue had at least one of those.

Anyway, this team is not nearly as much fun to watch without Pujols and Molina….

by nota bene on Jun 20, 2008 7:57 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

speaking of a suppressed HR/FB ratio… :)

FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG

by astrostl on Jun 20, 2008 9:28 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

i was just about to comment on that ;)

6.9%, now, so he still has room for improvement…

"the hardest decision to make is to do nothing; there is a terrible temptation to interfere." -gen patton

by SleepyCA on Jun 20, 2008 9:30 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I hope we do some bunting tonight

Would love to see some small ball early in the game by Iz and Skip to try and make something happen.

by KYCards on Jun 20, 2008 6:40 PM EDT   0 recs

i havent

i’ve tried to throw one a buncha times, that, in and of itself, is hard.

catching one aint no picnic either.

C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!

by yer dog first on Jun 20, 2008 7:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Didn't even think about that HL

Wasn’t thinking about wakefield on the mound.

by KYCards on Jun 20, 2008 7:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

My thinking was more that maybe the Red Sox

are not used to playing small ball and it might put them off guard early in the game. It would probably be better to wait and do this the next couple of games.

by KYCards on Jun 20, 2008 7:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I reallly hope we don't

Giving away outs is very, very rarely a good idea. Small ball sounds nice and all but just leads to small scoring.

by DriverZn on Jun 20, 2008 7:08 PM EDT to parent up   1 recs

I don't mind bunting for a hit

But I didn’t think that’s what you were suggesting. Bunting to sacrifice generally isn’t going to work well when you need multiple runs.

by DriverZn on Jun 20, 2008 7:15 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Trying to get on base early is what I was getting at.

I just don’t think Boston are used to people bunting on them early in the game and it would throw them off a little….

by KYCards on Jun 20, 2008 7:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

:)

FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG

by astrostl on Jun 20, 2008 7:15 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

It all depens on your personell

If you’re already small scoring, you can score more reliably with small ball. I

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Jun 20, 2008 7:30 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Any proof?

I have seen a number that show bunting decreases the number of runs you are expected to score in most situations. In a handfull it does increase the chance of scoring a single run at the expense of reducing the chance of scoring 2 or more.

Do you think 1 or 2 runs is going to get it done agains boston? I don’t. So I would go for broke knowing that you might go broke.

Put another way I like my chances more given:
50% chance of scoring 0, 50% chance of scoring 4
vs
100% chance of scoring 2

I view the 2 run option as an almost certain loss.

by DriverZn on Jun 20, 2008 7:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'd guess it's dependent

On the number of guys that can hit for extra bases. If you have a bunch of guys with ISO’s under .100 then it starts to make more and more sense, since you’re counting on 3 hit innings to score most of the time with those types littered throughout.

Not saying I want us bunting left and right. I’m generally not a proponent of it. But I could see it making more sense with this team, as currently constructed, than usual.

by Merry CRasmus on Jun 20, 2008 7:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Left unsaid, of course

Lets get runners on base first. Otherwise the whole subject is pretty irrelevant

by Merry CRasmus on Jun 20, 2008 7:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I pretty much agree with you in our current high-run environment

but, in other eras, where runs are a lot more scarce, it does make sense. A proxy for this is what happens to win probability in close and late situations—bunts and steals become way more desireable things in the eighth inning of a one run game.

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Jun 20, 2008 8:02 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

team: home
inning: 1
outs: 0
bases: first
score: tied
win expectancy: 0.634

with 1 out and second base (a successful bunt result), the win expectancy DROPS to 0.613.

team: home
inning: 9
outs: 0
bases: first
score: tied
win expectancy: 0.716

with 1 out and second base (a successful bunt result), the win expectancy DROPS to 0.704

this is according to 1997-2006 historical data, not projections. the data would indicate that, even with a 100% success rate on bunts, the team would lower its chances of winning in the 1st or the 9th inning in a tied game if they were to bunt over a leadoff single. as we all know, bunts don’t always work so the decision in that particular situation would seem to be even worse than usual. there may be some situations where it’s a +EV move, but i based on this i imagine that it’s both very slight and very rare.

FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG

by astrostl on Jun 20, 2008 8:17 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Thanks for looking that up

Pretty much what I remember. The only adjustments I saw was for quality of batters. That is the data doesn’t adjust for the fact we have people like AK, miles, and Izz2 in our lineup. At best bunting is likely a break even deal even with those factored in.

by DriverZn on Jun 20, 2008 8:21 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

It trust Istuias

batting first is to make Wakefield throw strikes….....

Westcoastbirdwatcher

by westcoastbirdwatcher on Jun 20, 2008 7:07 PM EDT   0 recs

Um, is it raining in Boston?

Cause the game hasn’t come on to Extra Innings yet and it starts in 5 minutes!

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Jun 20, 2008 7:10 PM EDT   0 recs

it looks like it is

but it doesn’t lookbad

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Jun 20, 2008 7:12 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I am sure

that field drains about as well as a swamp.

by Egyptian on Jun 20, 2008 7:15 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

doesnt look bad

but also, it doesnt look to be moving particularly fast, and Boston is sitting on the head of the front right now.

C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!

by yer dog first on Jun 20, 2008 7:15 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

maybe we'll get lucky

The whole series will get rained out and we’ll have to reschedule when pujols and co. are healthy.

by hex706f726368 on Jun 20, 2008 7:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

should be a quick delay....

.... storm only lasted about 15-20 mins here (I’m about 40 min from Boston) and now its sunny. While you wait, check out Cards draftee Bradford pitch for LSU on ESPN.

by mkdog22 on Jun 20, 2008 7:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

very funny

It is f-in raining in Omaha too

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Jun 20, 2008 7:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Does FOX

know something we don’t? The preview for the Saturday afternoon games says ” The high powered Cardinals invade Fenway”
So that is why Reyes really was pulled yesterday. He is being traded for offensive help. I knew it. That is why AK was going to DH, they wanted to make some team think he had a DH’s bat. He is going too!

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Jun 20, 2008 7:22 PM EDT   0 recs

you know what?

fuck Big FOX.

i swear every time the Cards are the game of the week, they have a ohio team play the other game just so i cant watch them.

sorry for all the F bombs, i’m in a really pissed off mood tonight.

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Jun 20, 2008 8:08 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

no need to say sorry

your F-bombs just get us ready for all the ones to follow

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Jun 20, 2008 8:23 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

what luck

I thought it was a 7:15 game. Good thing there was a rain delay. I could’ve missed baseball!

by Evilfrog on Jun 20, 2008 7:30 PM EDT   0 recs

Not lucky for me.

When the game goes too long it interrupts my sex life – which is quite annoying. I hate having to choose.

by Egyptian on Jun 20, 2008 7:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Ha ha ha ah ha

....and I’m still laughing….ouch that hurts!

mattnj

by mattnj on Jun 20, 2008 7:43 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No really

On my way home just a little while ago, listening to the pregame on XM, and I heard all the names in our lineup, and all the names in theirs, and I thought “man, we’re gonna get KILLED.” This is, of course, baseball, and anything can happen, but on paper this appears to be a bloodbath. The likes of which we haven’t seen in quite some time. As in, last Friday…

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on Jun 20, 2008 7:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

My thoughts too

Hopefully it will rain for 3 days straight…David vs GOLIATH kind of stuff

mattnj

by mattnj on Jun 20, 2008 7:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

has anyone heard what time they're expecting to start?

I hear Tony La Russa may bat the Pitcher spot cleanup

by jds2 on Jun 20, 2008 7:43 PM EDT   0 recs

The tarp is off the field

looked like the players are starting to warm up…...I’m stuck watching NESN :(

by mkdog22 on Jun 20, 2008 7:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes but

Doppler has some pretty severe storms approaching from west…there is hope.

mattnj

by mattnj on Jun 20, 2008 7:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

why save him for Detroit...we'll get swept there....

negativity aside I’d be thrilled with 2-4 over the next 6…

by stanchar on Jun 20, 2008 7:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If Aaron Miles has to catch

will he revolutionize the position for the first times since Bench? Will we have thousands of kids across America raising the the ranks using the ‘standing up behind home plate’ technique to catch?

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Jun 20, 2008 7:56 PM EDT   0 recs

Do they even have catching gear his size?

He’s smaller than LaRue and Yadi, would he have to don the oversized gear? That could get humorous :D

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on Jun 20, 2008 7:57 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

We were discussing this today

how would he put down the signs? The bottom flap would hang below his knees, making it impossible for the pitcher to see his hand. Likewise, though, the flap would also block balls getting through the 5 hole.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Jun 20, 2008 7:59 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Once again

There’s always a Silver Lining!!!

by Tackle Box on Jun 20, 2008 8:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

In all fairness to Miles.

It’s not his fault he is the same height standing as Molina/Larue are squating.

by Evilfrog on Jun 20, 2008 8:05 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

They just threw this stat up on the Braves telecast

So I’ll make it a rain-delay trivia question

Which left-handed batter in the NL has the highest BA against LHP? He’s hitting .431(!) against LHP as a hint

It’s probably the last guy you’d ever guess.

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on Jun 20, 2008 8:04 PM EDT   0 recs

Oh yeah

Guess without cheating

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on