Erik Bedard?
by craig3410
on Jun 20, 2008 3:40 AM EDT
So, in case you haven't heard, Erik Bedard is officially on the trading block.
I feel that the Cardinals should actively pursue him. Even though he's having a bit of an off year, his numbers are still very, very good.
Now, what to give up for him. I feel that Chris Duncan would be a good fit for the Mariners; they desperately need power; they're tenth of the fourteen AL teams in homers. Obviously, it's not a straight-up Duncan-for-Bedard trade; who else should we package in?
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No one would take Chris Duncan at this point
other than as a ‘throw in’ part of the deal if they believed he could regain his all-star caliber form.
I don’t think the Cardinals should go after Bedard. He isn’t really the pitcher he is cracked up to be and we have better options for the coming years from the farm system. He’d only be a 1 year rental unless we decided to throw a ton of cash in his direction.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 20, 2008 4:16 AM EDT 0 recs
maybe i missed it
but when did duncan ever have all-star caliber form?
by VolsnCards5 on
Jun 20, 2008 4:20 PM EDT
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over his first 640 PA's in the big leagues
he was certainly good enough offensively to be considered an all-star.
"the hardest decision to make is to do nothing; there is a terrible temptation to interfere." -gen patton
by SleepyCA on
Jun 20, 2008 5:10 PM EDT
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Get him
outta the AL and into the NL and his numbers are bound to look a little better. I’d say if we can get him without giving up anyone who looks like they’ll have a spot in our lineup next year then i’d advocate that deal.
by lopey986 on Jun 20, 2008 4:47 AM EDT 0 recs
That is not necessarily true....
Johan hasn’t exactly had an easy time in the NL….... The NL is really underrated…
"Even when the rain falls, Even when the flood starts rising, Even when the storm comes, I am washed by the water!" -NeedToBreathe
by Calhoun on
Jun 20, 2008 10:34 AM EDT
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Not to mention that
the Mariners don’t exactly play in a bandbox…
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on
Jun 20, 2008 12:59 PM EDT
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They would want Colby
They need a CFer so they would want Colby unless they would take Skip which I doubt.
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 20, 2008 8:49 AM EDT 0 recs
Skip...
I know that Skippy won’t bring back a guy like Bedard…but there’s never going to be a better time to try and get something for him. He’s having a great month (1.006 OPS) and season (.810 OPS), has great speed, and can play a decent CF…there’s got to be a few teams out there who need a CFer.
by cardzfanbub on
Jun 20, 2008 9:40 AM EDT
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Really?
I’d say they need a first basemen (instead of Miguel Cairo) or a corner outfielder or a DH or more pitching before they need a CF. Ichiro is doing just fine in center.
On with the (good) youth movement!
by aet15 on
Jun 20, 2008 3:10 PM EDT
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M's
They gave up their top prospect for him in the offseason—I seriously doubt they’re going to accept getting less than a top prospect back for him when he’ll be a type A free-agent. They should be shopping him to the Yankees for some combo of Hughes/Cabrera/Kennedy if they’re smart. The Yanks just signed Sidney Ponson of all people to come in and pitch for them. They’re desparate.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 20, 2008 10:00 AM EDT 0 recs
You underestimate how incredibly stupid the Mariners are.
by JI on
Jun 20, 2008 5:59 PM EDT
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You
seem to forget that they just cleaned house because of how stupid they were being.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on
Jun 23, 2008 10:16 AM EDT
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Lincoln and Armstrong are still at the top
nothing has changed.
Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)
by JI on
Jun 24, 2008 1:19 AM EDT
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You mean....
The guys who put together a 116 win team? Those guys? That was before Bavasi, and they were pretty decent back then….
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on
Jun 24, 2008 4:04 PM EDT
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They also hired Woody Woodward.
Gillick was a decent win now GM, but he torpedoed the farm system and Lincoln and co. refused the let the M’s rebuild/retool after 2003 and look what happened.
Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)
by JI on
Jun 24, 2008 5:34 PM EDT
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I'll pass
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
DFA Adam Kennedy!
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on Jun 20, 2008 10:15 AM EDT 0 recs
Didn't we trade
Harren, Barton and Kiko for Erik Bedard?
Oh wait it was for Mulder…well same thing.
by Harknights on Jun 20, 2008 11:18 AM EDT 0 recs
Except Mulder was a much
better pitcher. So, this makes even less sense.
Unless they want to take Reyes, Barton and Jiminez for him/
by Hardcore Legend on
Jun 20, 2008 12:34 PM EDT
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Can we just trade Jíminez anyway?
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on
Jun 20, 2008 1:00 PM EDT
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he's at the "bag of balls" point
on what I’m willing to take for him.
On with the (good) youth movement!
by aet15 on
Jun 20, 2008 3:11 PM EDT
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I guess the difference is
we only thought Mulder had arm issues…while we know Bedard is a ticking time bomb.
...so he’ll be a Cardinal next month. Say goodbye to Reyes, Anderson and Jay.
by Harknights on
Jun 20, 2008 1:36 PM EDT
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what makes you think
bedard is a “ticking time bomb”?
If we could get him for Reyes, Anderson and Jay, we have to do that deal.
"the hardest decision to make is to do nothing; there is a terrible temptation to interfere." -gen patton
by SleepyCA on
Jun 20, 2008 3:12 PM EDT
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please no
he’s a pitcher who actually refuses to go over 100 pitches…like just stops trying after 100…i need a legit warrior if i’m trading two of my top 10 prospects
by VolsnCards5 on
Jun 20, 2008 4:22 PM EDT
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I don't put a lot of stock
in what a fired GM and manager who were extraordinarily dreadful at being GM’s/managers say about their players after they are fired. He’s taking a lot of crap for something that is, imho, an organizational issue. Not sure where that bit of criticism comes from anyway, since it’s pretty stupid to leave a guy in past 100 pitches; every time TLR has done it, we’ve (rightfully) criticized him.
Also not totally sure what you mean by “not trying”, but he’s gone over 100 pitches in 6 of his 12 starts this year (wainwright, 6 of 13, looper 4 of 15, piniero 1 of 10, lohse 4 of 15, welle 4 of 14) and has not given up an earned run while doing so. He also has 7 quality starts out of 12 – one less than AW has in 13 starts. He had one atrocious start against the yankees in which he gave up 9 runs in 4.1 innings; if you ignore that start, the rest of his numbers show he’s been as good as wainwright this year (3.14 ERA).
He’d be a huge addition to our team, especially if we managed to sneak into the playoffs (this year or next). Acquiring him would allow us to trade one of {Looper, Lohse, Piniero) and he’ll almost certainly be a type A free agent after ‘09, so even if we don’t resign him we’ll get 1.5 years of borderline ace and 2 drafts picks out of the trade.
"the hardest decision to make is to do nothing; there is a terrible temptation to interfere." -gen patton
by SleepyCA on
Jun 20, 2008 5:40 PM EDT
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i would agree but i have a friend who is an orioles fan
and he said that bedard’s lack of heart on the mound make the trade ok for him….so this reputation comes from more than just his time in seattle…i just think it would be a mistake to give up what we would have to give up to get him
and while its true that he has gone over 100 this season, its the fact that he gives in after 100 that is a problem
and an ace should be expected to go over 100 anytime they can…look at brandon webb…that is part of the deal with being an ace
by VolsnCards5 on
Jun 20, 2008 11:29 PM EDT
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God I love B-Ref
Erik Bedard 101+ pitches: .226 .281 .350. I would fucking love to have a pitcher give in and give up a .631 OPS on his career. He’s gone 101+ in 77 out of 124 starts. (62%)
Brandon Webb 101+ pitches: .276 .332 .430. 96/178 games (53%)
Your friend is flat out wrong in every measureable way so we can end that theory right now.
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
by joker24 on
Jun 21, 2008 9:41 AM EDT
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So do I.
Career IP per start:
Bedard (29 yrs old) = 5.83 (124 GS / 3.86 ERA / .692 OPS)
Webb (29 yrs old) = 6.67 (178 GS / 3.23 ERA / .659 OPS)
Sabathia (28 yrs old) = 6.43 (234 GS / 3.86 ERA / .701 OPS)
Santana (29 yrs old) = 6.56 (189 GS / 3.10 ERA / .638 OPS)
The efficiency of pitches is more important than the number of pitches.
Notice how Bedard has made over 50 fewer career starts than the other “aces” of his age? Why is that?
On a purely subjective “fan” level, Bedard is what you would call a “slow worker”. So if you like to watch a guy who repeatedly grabs the rosen bag, wipes his brow, shakes off signs & of course, throws over 100 pitches without getting to the 6th inning, Erik Bedard is your guy.
Boomer.
by glamboomer on
Jun 21, 2008 12:10 PM EDT
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And for some reason that is relevant to him giving/not giving up after 100 pitches?
Is he in the absolute top tier of pitchers? No and I wasn’t remotely insinuating that nor was I saying he was durable. It was said that he “gives up” at 100 pitches, and that is comically not true.
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
by joker24 on
Jun 26, 2008 11:35 AM EDT
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Bedard has been injured this year
the Mariners are probably just bitter that he refuses to pitch through pain. Remember, the Mariners are the worst run organization in baseball they want their players to play hurt.
by JI on
Jun 20, 2008 6:01 PM EDT
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I suppose they have a right to be afraid of Bedard.
He missed the entire ‘03 season with elbow surgery & spent 2 months on the DL in ‘05 with a strained MCL.
He’s also been DL’d for oblique strains, back spasms & this year for a bad hip.
Why has a 29 year old “ace” never had a season where he’s thrown over 200 IP & only made 30 starts once?
I would prefer he not be a Cardinal.
Boomer.
by glamboomer on
Jun 21, 2008 12:48 AM EDT
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If you are willing to take on Bedard, don't.
Go for the real, true, ace. The man who throws glorius pitches that defy every bat ever carried to the plate- Mr. Rich Harden. I don’t know what Beane would ask for, but he couldn’t ask for a Haren type haul for this oft injured pitcher. That hurt to say “Haren type haul” there…....
Not that I really want a serious injury risk pitcher on my staff, but if I was going for it, I’d go for the best…....Second choice is Ben Sheets. He is a very, very good pitcher when he manages to get on the mound. But he’s a little older. I want Rich Harden.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on
Jun 21, 2008 10:21 PM EDT
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Is Harden the best once you consider injuries?
Do you want a 3.25 pitcher who throws 120 innings or a 3.75 pitcher who throws 180? I’ll take the latter, personally.
by azruavatar on
Jun 23, 2008 8:04 AM EDT
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Probaly not. But Harden has the best stuff of any pitcher alive.......
Just saying, if you’re in on an injury risk, why not. He will most likely not ever be traded anyway. Beane cannot get full value because what is his full value?
I just love me some Rich Harden, that’s all. Those 120 innings would be a sight to behold, no?
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on
Jun 23, 2008 12:19 PM EDT
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Bedard now?
is much better than Mulder was in his prime? Do you remember Mulder when he was actually great?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on
Jun 20, 2008 6:32 PM EDT
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Mudler was better due to his relatively good health
but Bedard’s pure stuff is ridiculous. Look at his season last year, it’s better than any single season Mulder ever had.
by JI on
Jun 20, 2008 11:12 PM EDT
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Right up until..
the end of last year when he sat out the last month of the season.
Boomer.
by glamboomer on
Jun 21, 2008 12:50 AM EDT
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Which apparently he could have pitched through if they were in a race
"Regression to the mean is so much more fun to watch when it’s a Cub who is regressing." SleepyCA
by joker24 on
Jun 21, 2008 9:42 AM EDT
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I agree he has better stuff
I just think sometimes people fall in love with stuff over results.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on
Jun 21, 2008 8:53 AM EDT
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It is a funny thing
Jiminez pitches great in Memphis and all the staff there say he has great stuff, but bring him up and he bombs out. Go figure.
by ridgesee on Jun 20, 2008 1:04 PM EDT 0 recs
I assume they'd want Rasmus
You don’t give up 5 prospects (including Adam Jones – who hasn’t done anything yet, but that doesn’t matter – yet) and then turnaround and dump a player for nobodies.
Even if it was the fired GM that did it, the organization is going to want to salvage something from this trade.
I’d love to get Bedard. But not give up what I imagine they’ll want for him.
http://www.theticketguys.com
by felone on Jun 20, 2008 1:16 PM EDT 0 recs
Off topic
Don’t you think the Orioles Adam Jones is a bit miffed at Pacman Jones now wanting to use his given name instead of Pacman because of all the negative connotations associated with it?
If it works now he’s forever associated with an NFL black-eye and will probably get hate mail from people with a case of mistaken identity—maybe he should come up with a nickname or something like, I dunno, Frogger. Yah….Frogger definitely gives him a better image….. 8-P
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on
Jun 20, 2008 1:48 PM EDT
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I vote Donkey Kong Jones
or Galaga Jones. It’s like Indiana’s sci-fi brethren.
Miles in '08
by Zoop on
Jun 21, 2008 9:22 PM EDT
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Pass
I live out here and when they made the trade I wasnt sold on the guy…He was terrible in spring and hasnt been much better after…It’d fleece the system to get the guy…they just did fire the last gm so the new guy may want to just rid himself of the old guys work or he might want to proove something… STAY AWAY..
I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2
by punchinjudy on Jun 20, 2008 2:11 PM EDT 0 recs
100 pitch limit?
I ran across this the other day after hearing a segment with some one that covers the M’s for a Seattle radio station. It seems that they also think he has quite the attitude problem. If it is true and he has put himself on a 100 pitch limit, do you really want to give up what it would take to get him?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Jun 20, 2008 4:26 PM EDT 0 recs
he's gone over 100 pitches
more often than any starter on our team this year except for wainwright, and AW has only done it one time more than him. This is a stupid thing to criticize (basically falls into the “losing team blames it’s best player” mentality).
See my above post for detailed breakdown.
"the hardest decision to make is to do nothing; there is a terrible temptation to interfere." -gen patton
by SleepyCA on
Jun 20, 2008 5:42 PM EDT
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whoops
he’s actually done it the same number of times as AW.
"the hardest decision to make is to do nothing; there is a terrible temptation to interfere." -gen patton
by SleepyCA on
Jun 20, 2008 5:43 PM EDT
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i dont have a problem with the 100 pitch limit
I have a problem with the bad attitude. I do have a problem with the 100 pitch limit if he isn’t tiring, but that is for a different time and place. He might have a great attitude too, but that isn’t what you hear
I would take him if the Cards didnt have to give up top-tier talent to get him
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on
Jun 20, 2008 5:52 PM EDT
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one other thing to keep in mind
Bedard coming here would be going from the worst defense in the ML (by RZR) to the third-best defense in the ML.
"the hardest decision to make is to do nothing; there is a terrible temptation to interfere." -gen patton
by SleepyCA on Jun 20, 2008 6:36 PM EDT 0 recs
you may consider using DER (defensive efficiency ratio) instead of RZR to measure whole-team defense. i think “reverse BABIP” makes sense when trying to figure out pitcher relocation effects, because the macro goal is to look at outs recorded, not range covered. we’re still ahead of seattle on DER, but it looks like there are six other teams ahead of us.
FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG
by astrostl on
Jun 20, 2008 7:57 PM EDT
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isn't DER pretty primitive compared to RZR?
I’d think that RZR is a better measure of defense because it doesn’t count balls that wouldn’t be caught by anyone. DER is more influenced by bad defensive luck. But you’re right, it is pretty much an inverse BABIP.
I wonder if a relationship between RZR and DER could be developed that would help show how badly hurt a pitcher was by his defense? IE a batting-average-on-balls-that-should-have-been-outs?
"the hardest decision to make is to do nothing; there is a terrible temptation to interfere." -gen patton
by SleepyCA on
Jun 20, 2008 9:13 PM EDT
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i spun down a good road as a result of this conversation! my base assumptions was that RZR measured individual range, and DER measured total converted outs. and if looking at pitcher effects, i couldn’t care less if the shortstop is successfully overcompensating for a weak LF as long as the outs are recorded for example. those OOZ plays don’t factor into zone ratings. i didn’t consider the fact that DER doesn’t adjust for batted ball types, though, and that does sound really unfair; if your pitching staff is serving up liners, it’s not the field’s fault that they convert into a lot of hits.
i read http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/fielding-stats-at-the-hardball-times/ and the linked http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/ten-things-i-didnt-know-last-week22/ . in the former they’re running correlations against the fielding bible’s +/- system, which only holds up so long as +/- itself does but that’s probably as good as anything out there right now. defensive metrics are such uncharted statistical territory compared to pitching and batting.
at the end of this, i’m left wondering whether the now-clear third option – tht’s type-adjusted +/- system – wouldn’t be better than both DER and RZR for this particular point of analysis. i think UZR is proprietary now, is PMR published both free and LIVE anywhere?
FIP > ERA, OBP > AVG
by astrostl on
Jun 21, 2008 12:46 AM EDT
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just taking a quick glance...
looking at his career numbers, last year seems to be the outliar. his numbers this year are more in line with his career.
add with that the attitude, i wouldn’t want to give up a lot for him.
"Sorry about him, he's dealing with being an inker. " - Chasing Amy
by FutureMan on Jun 21, 2008 12:27 AM EDT 0 recs
oh no
he was hurt while “running to first base”—now the yankees AND the mariners are hating the ‘DH vs the NL”...
2 down, 12 to go…
"If thats bad luck, lets DFA our luck away." -DriverZN
by SleepyCA on
Jun 21, 2008 1:11 AM EDT
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How about this scenario?
http://prospectinsider.com/2008/06/19/the-market-for-erik-bedard/
rasmus + garcia + anderson? that seems like a hella lot to get a guy who hasn’t put it all together yet.
by barry whiteteeth on Jun 21, 2008 9:23 PM EDT 0 recs
Why the hell would the Cardinals trade
3 of their top 5 prospects for a poor-man’s (old) Tom Glavine. Meaning, he’s Tom Glavine at age 35.
by Hardcore Legend on
Jun 21, 2008 11:27 PM EDT
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why in the hell would the Cardinals
give up more for the guy than the M’s did?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on
Jun 22, 2008 10:15 AM EDT
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You have to be insane to compare Bedard to an old Tom Glavine
Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)
by JI on
Jun 24, 2008 1:20 AM EDT
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No thank you.
I’d rather go for C.C. out of everyone on the block.
Miles in '08
by Zoop on Jun 21, 2008 9:25 PM EDT 0 recs
If we are going to trade for an oft-injured pitcher
why not take the risk on Rich Harden, who seems to get ridiculous injuries that are completely unrelated to his pitching?
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 21, 2008 11:27 PM EDT 0 recs
Here here.
The market for Harden should be an interesting one. Who knows how much teams will back off due to his injury history.
If you can get Harden and keep him healthy, you probably just picked up the best pitcher in the National League.
If you can do it without completely mortgaging the future, do it, I say.
by mojowo11 on
Jun 23, 2008 12:21 PM EDT
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Injuries
Teams would be dumb to back off because of his injury history, none of his injuries have to do with his arm. The interesting part of the market for him is what Beane’s ask is going to be to get Harden. I think he could possibly get a Haren sized haul for him—Dan only had 1.5 good seasons in Oakland before he got dealt and Harden has just as many cost controlled years on his deal.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on
Jun 23, 2008 3:39 PM EDT
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Not exactly true.
Harden’s DL stints:
‘05 – Missed 38 games with strained left oblique muscle.
‘06 – Missed 146 games with right elbow strain & back strain.
‘07 – Missed 151 games with a strained pitching shoulder.
‘08 – DL stint for right shoulder strain.
3 of those are pitching arm-related with the 2 most recent stints having to do with the pitching shoulder.
Not good. Do you think Peter Gammons is solely responsible for the hype of Rich Harden?
I vote “no” on Mark Pri… I mean Rich Harden.
Boomer.
by glamboomer on Jun 23, 2008 10:48 PM EDT 0 recs
I was going to post something similar
The thing is, Harden isn’t falling apart. The injuries are strains, not tears or broken elbows from line drives or any of those other injuries Prior had.
Structurally, Harden’s arm is intact. It’s a matter of keeping it that way, I guess, but he’s not damaged goods.
by mojowo11 on
Jun 25, 2008 11:51 AM EDT
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