Trade Deadline Thoughts
Every year throughout the season I look at other teams' rosters and try to match up a good fit for the Cardinals. I have been doing the same this season, and while reading VEB, I have taken a new train of thought on what the Cardinals should do to improve this team not only for this year but for years to come...
If the team decides to do only one thing this season at the deadline, they need a LH Relief Pitcher who THROWS STRIKES!!! There is nothing worse than sending your specialist to the mound to face 2 lefties and walking both of them. Anyone on the roster could have done that. It is a need that the Cardinals need to address (with the Reds having some solid lefties and Prince Fielder for the Brewers, Phillies at playoff time (think positive)). It may be difficult to deal with the Pirates who seem to have the most available lefty specialists since they are within the division, so you have to look other places such as Colorado (Fuentes) or Baltimore (Sherrill) or Kansas City (Mahay). Just pick up one of these guys, please.
I am also a big advocate of going out and trading for Placido Polanco and helping Adam Kennedy pack his bags and leave this team. If/when this happens, it is as if the Cardinals are getting a solid defensive second baseman who gets on base, makes contact, and hits above .300 for 8 mil/year (includes Kennedy's pay). I believe this is a bargain for the Cardinals for this and next year.
These moves could be relatively cheap in terms of prospects and would still allow the Cardinals to compete this season without literally betting the farm on this season's success, after all, we are in a rebuilding year.
And a glimpse of what these moves do for next season...
Allows the Cards to sign Orlando Cabrera, get bullpen help, and possibly go after an elite starting pitcher (15 mil+/year)?
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i agree
i think our most pressing need is LH relief pitching…we can solve the 2b situation by playing ryan(or even miles) there everyday…granted it’s not as good as polanco, but if can only make one deal, i’d rather it be for a LH reliever
by VolsnCards5 on Jun 16, 2008 4:59 PM EDT 0 recs
I was with you until you said:
“These moves could be relatively cheap in terms of prospects.”
Fuentes, especially, will not come cheap. Sherrill is one of the better closers in the game right now, he certainly won’t be cheap either. Mahay maybe, but good LHRPs are always in high demand, and use their price is always high.
As for Polanco…like you said, he’s pretty cheap and very productive, offensively and defensively. What makes you think he would be cheap in a trade?
Bottom line - almost invariably, you can’t trade nothing for something. You want good players? You have to give good talent, or at least talent that has good potential. I don’t think any of the teams you mentioned are exactly fumbling to give away those players - thus, they won’t be “relatively cheap in terms of prospects.”
by mojowo11 on Jun 16, 2008 5:13 PM EDT 0 recs
Polanco isn't a superstar
Chances are that the big offers to the Tigers will be guys like Mags and Rodriguez. Polanco is great for what we need, but not many contenders have such a horribly hitting MI as us. We’re one of the few contenders who really need a player like Polanco. He won’t be cheap like Maroth was last year, but we should be able to get him in a very decent deal.
On with the (good) youth movement!
by aet15 on
Jun 16, 2008 6:12 PM EDT
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Yes, but teams have learned a lesson during the past 10 years
He’s no superstar, but we’d have to give up at least someone like Bryan Anderson for him. Probably more than that, actually. The days when Mark McGwire is traded for TJ Matthews and Blake Stein are long gone. This is actually why Jocketty was no longer an effective GM: Other GM’s were no longer willing to take a bag of crap and a bullpen guy for a legitimate player.
I’m not saying that we shouldn’t get Polanco, or that we’d have to give up too much for him, but it isn’t like we can trade three guys who have no future on the major league team for a good player with a favorable contract anymore.
by rumrunner on
Jun 16, 2008 11:31 PM EDT
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Not ready yet
but the undrafted Cardinal farmhand Justin Fiske is getting the results you want and rocketing through the system.
by liam on Jun 16, 2008 5:26 PM EDT 0 recs
Why not put Jaime Garcia in the role of Wainwright
his first year in the league, then give up Reyes/Flores for Adrian Cardenas in the Phils’ org ( 2006 Ist rounder compared to and stuck behind Utley). Promote Cardenas, stick with the plan to DFA Kennedy, only and lot cheaper and more long term with Cardenas, and stand pat after that unless we can send Lohse or Piniero somewhere and actually get something.
by RayMonD! on Jun 16, 2008 6:12 PM EDT 0 recs
no way the phillies trade cardenas for reyes/flores alone
they don’t have to trade him, and if they do decide to, it’ll be an offer a lot bigger than those two that gets the deal done
i’m still torn on garcia in the pen…i’d like to see him go a full season as a starter…but at the same time, i really don’t want to see flores pitch in any more high leverage situations(i.e. a major league game)
by VolsnCards5 on
Jun 16, 2008 6:55 PM EDT
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Garcia numbers
Garcia doesn’t have good numbers against lefties, He is worst against lefties than Righties
by FlimtotheFlam on
Jun 16, 2008 7:49 PM EDT
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or mulder
not quite panic time yet
If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, perhaps you haven't grasped the situation!
by sportsman on
Jun 16, 2008 9:42 PM EDT
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what about Orlando Hudson?
We would probably have to sign him in the off season (I doubt the Diamond backs could trade him). He is a good hitter, not really a power guy but they have him hitting 3rd last I heard.
I dont know how his D is. I also think he is 30 or older but not that much older.
If you are in St. Louis check out my band, Griffin and the Gargoyles
(formerly Gargoyle Reign, Gargoyle Lounge)
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
:-D
by jealousblues on Jun 16, 2008 6:14 PM EDT 0 recs
o-dog
or chone figgins fixes things for a while. farm seems empty at 2nd for a while. had hope for martinez, but he’s not doing too well.
If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, perhaps you haven't grasped the situation!
by sportsman on
Jun 16, 2008 9:43 PM EDT
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can you believe chone figgins is 30?
not arguing that he wouldn’t be a good pickup solely because of it, but I had no idea he was so long in the tooth. i thought he was like 24.
But that .426 OBP sure would look good in the leadoff spot…
"the hardest decision to make is to do nothing; there is a terrible temptation to interfere." -gen patton
by SleepyCA on
Jun 16, 2008 11:19 PM EDT
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O-Dog's D
Hudson’s pretty sick with the glove, if his reputation and my eyes work.
I’m just waiting for someone to cite some fielding metrics that shoot my evaluation to hell, though.
by mojowo11 on
Jun 17, 2008 9:11 AM EDT
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What about pushing Salas up from Springfield to Memphis and see how he does?
His numbers are quite remarkable at AA
An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.
HL Mencken
by akaitori on Jun 16, 2008 6:23 PM EDT 0 recs
Mulder
If he pitches this year or ever again in the majors, he could be our soft-tossing lefty specialist. In fact, I think one left-handed hitter a game is all I’m comfortable with in regards to Mark Mulder pitching with this team.
In no way do I think we should be trading any prospects with a pulse for a LOOGY.
by lightbulb on Jun 16, 2008 6:44 PM EDT 0 recs
mulder is definitely an interesting option
If nothing else, because he doesn’t cost anything… I hope he’s going to have to do a lot more than get AA batters out before Mo considers him a real option, though, since LOOGY’s often seem to pitch in high-leverage situations. And even when he was ostensibly healthy, he wasn’t completely lights-out against lefties.
I’m going to keep stumping for Gorzelanny, too. I think a Reyes for Gorzelanny challenge trade could work out very well for both teams. We could use Gorz as a LOOGY this year and then try to fix his control problems in the offseason and return him to the rotation. Someone the other day also mentioned Marte – he’s got a shot at being a type A free agent, so a trade for him might not be that bad of an idea even if it does cost a decent prospect.
"the hardest decision to make is to do nothing; there is a terrible temptation to interfere." -gen patton
by SleepyCA on
Jun 16, 2008 7:14 PM EDT
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The Pirates would be the place to look for lefty pitching....
4 of their 5 starters are lefty and they have Grabow and Marte in the pen. I think they would possibly trade a lefty because it’s just bizarre to have that many starting…..I do remember reading a quote from their gm about Gorzelanny not being on the trading block, because he really has no handle on his true value. Maybe Maholm or Duke or Dumatrait will be made available, and one of the lefty relievers, my guess would be Marte, and they would ask for quite a lot.
KC gave Mahay a rather large contract. I think they actually want to keep him around for awhile.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on
Jun 16, 2008 9:15 PM EDT
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if king reyes
can cook it for a bit, we might be able to go to the pirates one up for duke or one of the lefties that could do the loogy thing for the rest of the year.
If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, perhaps you haven't grasped the situation!
by sportsman on
Jun 16, 2008 9:46 PM EDT
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Mahay
I live in KC and listen to sports talk radio all the time…Mahay will not come cheaply either. The Royals are very high on him and he is really the only lefty they can turn to at all…Jimmy Gobble wouldn’t be the answer in AA Springfield.
Sorry, but all three of those possibilities as lefties would take a lot, I believe.
stlfan
by stlfan on Jun 16, 2008 7:28 PM EDT 0 recs
Robinson Cano
I have mentioned this before but the Yankee’s are in desperate need of pitching, Cano is hitting for shit right now. I think if somehow we can get some of our starting pitchers healthy and have a surplus that we could trade Lohse + prospects to the Yankee’s for Cano.
by FlimtotheFlam on Jun 16, 2008 7:51 PM EDT 0 recs
No
Sorry, the Yankees aren’t dumb enough to rent Lohse for a half year in exchange for Cano’s ridiculously low stock. Cano’s cheap, under control for a long time, and not currently playing to his ability. Not happening.
by mojowo11 on
Jun 17, 2008 9:13 AM EDT
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But...
You’re ruling out the Hank factor here - he should have gotten his way when he went after Santana, he did eventually get his way when Joba went into the rotation, and he seems to make a lot of emotional decisions. I agree it would probably take more than Lohse - but with Wang out until September (on that note, does this further prove the point that AL pitchers are babied to the nth degree?) they’re going to have to make a move to remain relevant in what is probably the best division in baseball right now.
Mussina and Pettitte have been good thus far, but they’re both aging and not likely to keep this up over 200+ innings. Without Joba in the bullpen they have issues there as well. I really think that someone is going to fleece the Yanks this year because Hank is going to make an emotional decision when they’re in 3rd place and 6-10 games back at the deadline. Unfortunately, I don’t think it’s going to be the Cardinals that do it…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on
Jun 17, 2008 10:05 AM EDT
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I think you're underestimating the Cashman factor
Steinbrenner is an annoying dude, but Cashman still has a brain. I don’t think he’d let Steinbrenner force Cano out of town for a half season of a #3 starting pitcher.
by mojowo11 on
Jun 17, 2008 4:57 PM EDT
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Haberer
Admit we screwed up and bring back Eric Haberer. He could get it done. It was also somewhat surprising that we didn’t claim Threets off waivers when he was available….
by Lawless on Jun 16, 2008 8:14 PM EDT 0 recs
at this point
we should give most LOOGYs a look.
Looks like Kline got released. bring back the dirty cap!*
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on
Jun 16, 2008 10:08 PM EDT
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In regards to...
players coming in relatively cheap, I was actually saying that they wouldn’t require us to trade Rasmus, Perez, or Garcia – I was not clear; my fault. I am content with trading many of the players on the farm, but not any of those 3. If one of them is traded, I will be very disappointed in the decision. These are the cornerstones of the future that should stay Cardinals until performance proves otherwise.
Orlando Hudson is a gold glove caliber 2nd baseman, but his asking price will be around 8-10 mil/year and if you add Kennedy’s salary to that, it doesn’t seem to be as valuable as Polanco.
I believe Marte will be very costly, but Grabow could be had for less. One thing that could help the Cardinals is if the Pirates decide to trade Bay and Nady, which would open a spot for Pearce (Pirates AAA OF/1B) and they could use another OF, such as John Jay or Joe Mather? I can only see a deal with the Pirates if they make other deals for the future, but from what I have seen while working in Pittsburgh is that attendance is low and the city sees a .500 winning percentage as a great season, so they are probably not going to make any moves.
Cano will not be a very good option even though he does hit (he tends to really heat up in the second half of the year). Cano is projecting to be moved to the outfield at some point in his career due to his defense and the Yankees will want some top notch prospects in return. I don’t see the Yankees buying into any pitchers the Cardinals have to offer.
If the A’s become sellers, Alan Embree may become available. The Mariners may look to move Arthur Rhodes. Everyday Eddie Guardado may be moved by Texas. Bobby Seay in Detroit. Jack Taschner in San Fran. These guys will probably come a lot cheaper and I believe they are all an upgrade over Flores or Villone.
by Jumsy on Jun 16, 2008 8:33 PM EDT 0 recs
tough to do, but
kennedy’s costs are sunk, just like encarnacion. adds to the total payroll, so should be viewed as a part of the total payroll calculations, not dumped on a specific player we might acquire. hudson’s cost is hudson’s cost, no fair adding kennedy’s burden to o-dog.
age 30 is fine by me, especially for a second baseman. i certainly favor orlando over roberts. bigger question is what do we have they (backs) want, probably not much i’m afraid. they spent a bunch of prospects for haren, so maybe some AA talent could play a roll. to do anything, though, we need reyes (and cd) to get going.
If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, perhaps you haven't grasped the situation!
by sportsman on Jun 17, 2008 12:05 AM EDT 0 recs
I don't know what the best thing to do about second base is.....
I would hope Mr. Mozeliak has some new folks in place to evaluate talent…..because they have been really bad at picking players for 2nd base. My personal preference would be to look to the A’s for the solid and occasionally spectacular Mark Ellis. Only problem with that is he’s a free agent at the end of the season and has stated his preference to stay in Oakland.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on
Jun 17, 2008 8:01 AM EDT
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Arizona...
was able to give up four prospects because their system is still fairly loaded and they have a ton of young players at the MLB level right now (Young, Drew, Upton, etc.) I thought they might be an option for Izzy (he’d waive his no-trade to play for a WS contender I think) at the beginning of spring training, but their new closer has been lights out so I’m sure they aren’t looking for one.
The Birds really don’t have anything that they need, so dealing with them is going to be difficult in terms of value. They would also be crazy to deal Hudson when they’re in contention in the NL because they really don’t have a top prospect or veteran to fill his shoes. They’re either going to lock him up for five more years or he’ll be a guy for the Cardinals to target in the offseason.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on
Jun 17, 2008 10:14 AM EDT
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Brandon Lyon.... wow. Raise your hand if you thought they made a mistake letting Valverde go.......
I think you are right—they don’t really have a replacement for Hudson. They may let him walk at the end of the season, they don’t seem to be all that in to big contracts, but I don’t think they are going to play out the season without him.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on
Jun 17, 2008 10:32 AM EDT
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really? valverde?
I thought letting him go was a very smart thing to do. Last year was his first really dominant season correct? and also with lyon, tony pena and chad qualls in the bullpen it seemed like they were in a good position to let the high priced closer go.. sorry. off topic. lol
by flipthebird on
Jun 17, 2008 11:53 AM EDT
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Yeah, I really did think they were making a mistake letting Valverde go.
I knew they had plenty of good bullpen arms. I just thought they would need Valverde around too. Imagine that—they knew better what they needed than I did…....so I was wrong.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on
Jun 17, 2008 12:43 PM EDT
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Valverde wasn't worth the risk anyway
Last four years ERA+s: 182, 81, 177, 109.
You could be getting Mr. Dominant, Mr. Average, or Mr. Crappy. You never know. And you should never say “you never know” about your closer, if you can help it.
Lyon saved 14 games back in 2005 before succumbing to season-ending injury and coming back to find Valverde with his job (Bruney also had 12 saves in 2005 before they gave the job to Valverde for good).
When Lyon got back in 06, he posted a 3.89 ERA without all his velocity. Last year, his velocity returning finally, he posted a 2.68 ERA. So he’s always been effective for them when he’s healthy, and they’ve got Pena to fall back on if he falters.
Thusly, Valverde was totally expendable. They got to charge a king’s ransom for him because he was coming off one of his good years and he came with the “closer” tag. Very smart GM’ing.
by mojowo11 on
Jun 17, 2008 5:03 PM EDT
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Now I see the error in my thinking.....
I never knew that Lyon had been a closer for them before. Oops. My bad…..
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on
Jun 17, 2008 6:36 PM EDT
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those same valverde years by FIP: 2.65, 3.28, 3.56, 3.29 – xFIP: 3.44, 3.37, 3.78, 2.84. his career FIP is 3.44 and his career ERA is 3.34, so the correlation is strong. 2006 saw higher LD% and way below his career LOB% of 77.1, but his team’s defensive efficiency ratio suffered as well – for those same four years their DER was .723, .645, .742, .674. GB% was steady, HR/F relatively steady.
i’m not lobbying for the guy – infact i still haven’t really considered it. your up and down ERA post about him intrigued me, though, and at a glance it’s looking to me like he simply ran into some bad luck. comparing with people like putz, saito, papelbon, etc he’s not in that class but still looks like he’d be a nice closer.
by astrostl on
Jun 18, 2008 10:54 AM EDT
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