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Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

Oooo. . . shiny. . .

Have you ever misplaced something? I do it all the time.  My hands seem to have thoughts and a will all their own.  I tend to be a very fastidious person; everything has a place and everything should be in said place.  Not being able to find something bothers the hell out of me. 

Where did I put it?  It should be in this drawer.  I had it earlier today.  Retrace your steps.  I came home.  I walked over to my desk.  I was on the internet.  I. . . hell, I don't remember where I put it.  O wait.  Yes, it is in my pocket.

My short term memory is less than exemplary so keeping everything in it's designated area is very helpful for me.  The problem is shiny things distract me.  That may make me sound like a twit, which I'm not, but I do have a very short attention span.  If I don't watch myself put something away and mentally check that off my list, I'll quickly hop to the next item on my to-do list without resolving the previous task. 

Despite the last two games, the Cardinals are pretty damn shiny right now aren't they.  They're fun to watch.  I haven't sat down for a game yet where I thought, "OK, tonight we get pummeled." They've the best record in the NL Central.  Before the season, I thought they'd win about 70 games.  I'd like my crow medium well, please. 

That outfield that looked so iffy and unsure before the season, they've given prognosticators the middle finger, metaphorically speaking, of course.  From left to right, the outfield positions have OPS marks of .789, .882 and 1.026 -- little better than anyone expected.  The rotation that we were all concerned about has the 5th best ERA in the bigs with a 3.51 and a 130:58 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  Can I get some humble pie on the side. 

Everything is going so well.  It's so. . . shiny. . .

Wait, I kinda glazed over there.  Where was I?  No, no this wasn't all supposed to be about how the Cardinals are coalescing as a team.  It was about distractions.  Well, not the distractions themselves so much as the things they've distracted from.

 

Star-divide

Remember when the Cardinals signed Ron Villone?  He was on a minor league deal.  Depth in left-handed relief since the Cardinals don't really have anything in the minors.  In 14 innings, he's allowed 6 hits and 1 run.  He's struck out 14 and walked 8 on his way to a 0.63 ERA.  Shiny, no?

Tyler Johnson.

You almost forgot about him too?  He went down with some shoulder troubles during Spring Training.  In fact, he's been sidelined for over 2 months now with nary a whisper about any improvement.  He had a cortisone shot about two weeks after the MRI (around the 20th of March) and wasn't going to even throw a pitch before the season started.  Since then -- nothing.  What happened to him?  Is he getting better?  Where the initial MRI results wrong?  Is he in extended Spring Training?  Heck, I can't find anything on in within the last month.  Maybe I'm looking in the wrong places.  Good thing Villone is performing well.

4 Million dollars.  That's all Kyle Lohse cost the Cardinals.  Even though he's taken his lumps over the last couple games, he's on a 1 year contract for chump change.  Remember when he was asking for money similar to Carlos Silva's 4 year/44M dollar deal.  Forget that.  We got him for 1/12 of the commitment (1/3rd of the yearly rate * 1/4 of the years -- shady math courtesy of azruavatar) and he's been more than sufficient as a middle of the rotation stalwart.  Check that Rotoworld sidebar and you'll see that he had a 2.45 ERA through his first 6 starts.  Shiny, no?

Matt Clement.

Is this guy's arm still attached?  I'd completely understand if it wasn't but what the heck happened here.  The Red Sox paid him a year to rehab (essentially) and then decided they were done.  Did the Cardinals doctors not see anything at all during the physical?  At first the word of mouth was that his arm strength just wasn't game ready.  He hadn't really thrown in well over a year so him being in a weakened state was more than understandable.  Umm, Matt. . . how's your arm strength?  If you put the ball in your right hand can you take your left hand and throw both your detached right arm and the ball across the plate?  How about for a strike?

Ryan Ludwick smacked a pair of solo shots yesterday. His OPS is 1.185.  We're arguing over whether he or Duncan deserves more playing time .  It's a left-handed starter, where the heck is Barton?  It's a righty, we need Schumaker at the top of our lineup!  All hail Rick Ankiel, savior centerfielder of the Cardinals and mythical thrower outer of baserunners.  Touch head to ground in prostrate position now.

Colby Rasmus.

This one's a little hard for me.  Rasmus is my favorite player in the Cardinals farm system.  I've got his Springfield T-shirt jersey.  I make sure to find his box line every night.  He's hitting .200/.293/.344 for a .637 OPS prior to last night's game .  Now, there's a myriad of reasons why this could be.  He's a notoriously slow starter.  His father (who has long had a hand in Colby's development) thinks Colby is taking too many fastballs.  There's also speculation that Rasmus was really bummed out that he didn't make the team out of spring training (where he hit .302/.464/.605).  For all the talk prior to the regular season that the future might be now with Rasmus becoming the Cardinals centerfielder, his struggles this first month have gone somewhat unnoticed with the major league outfielders tearing the cover off the ball.  I don't want to strike alarm for anyone, I think Rasmus will be fine in the long term, but it's a pretty significant slump for the Cardinals only blue chip prospect.

The Cardinals head to Milwaukee for a 4 game series starting tonight with Todd Wellemeyer on the mound.  I'd love to see the Cardinals take 3 out of 4 and bury the Brewers a little bit further in the standings.  They're still a scary team, imo.  Todd Wellemeyer's been awfully good this season for someone who the Cardinals plucked off of waivers a year ago.  He's averaging 6 innings a start.  He's got a better than 2:1 K:BB ratio.  I bet they'll get back to winning.  Winning cures all sorts of ills. Or at least distracts from them.

Now, where did I put my keys?

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If you're not wearing your shoes,

check the insides of them; things sometimes are lost inside of shoes.

Life's a river, kid, you gotta go where it takes you.

by KerouacCardinal on May 9, 2008 8:15 AM EDT reply actions  

my keys were in the front door

of my apartment when i woke up this morning. true story.

e'rebuilding mang

by nycbirdo on May 9, 2008 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Steven Wright

One night I came home very late … it was the next night.
I walked up to my apartment building and put in my car keys. The building started up … so I drove it around for awhile.
Policeman pulled me over and asked me where I lived. I said, “Right here”.
Then I drove my building out onto the highway, parked it in the median, & yelled at all the cars to get the hell out of my driveway.

That said, the Cubs do deserve my pity, but never my support.

by Solanus on May 9, 2008 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

That one

is a CLASSIC!!

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on May 9, 2008 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Steven Wright

is a backward genius. or a zen master, one of the two (or both)

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 9, 2008 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Anybody here remember the 2005 Orioles?

First 36 games of the season: 23-13

Finished: 74-88

"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on May 9, 2008 8:25 AM EDT reply actions  

your signature

fits that post perfectly.

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

PUT SKIP ON THE BALLOT!!!

by stltrav09 on May 9, 2008 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

rockstark5, here's a question ---

when you look at that ‘05 orioles team, do you see any parallels between it and the current cardinals? i mean, other than the hot start, did that team have any characteristics in common with the ‘08 cards that lead you to believe the cards will suffer theh same type of collapse?

by lboros on May 9, 2008 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

The 05 Orioles

were more of a veteran based team than the ‘08 Cards. The O’s also had severe organizational issues impacting the play on the field. The manager (Lee Mazzilli) was on a renewed one year contract with no owner support even after bringing the O’s the closest to a .500 finish in 5 years. Mazzilli had a bunch of ornery vets too with Steve Kline leading the way. Sammy Sosa was signed to a big contract (50% more than 2nd highest paid player Tejeda) to drive in runs (which didn’t happen) and added to the clubhouse mess.

The Palmerio steroid issue hit them at the end of July during a 2-12 streak that had pulled the team below .500. Palmerio tried to throw Tejeda under the bus for the failed drug test and the clubhouse fell apart. Mazzilli got fired three days after Palmerio got suspended.

The ‘05 Orioles are a closer resemblance to the ‘07 Cards than the ‘08 team.

by ubeddie on May 9, 2008 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

kline

i blamed mazzilli’s usage patterns for kline’s struggles. la russa used kline as more of a LOOGY, facing primarily lefties, with pretty decent success. mazzilli tended to use kline as purely an 8th inning setup guy against any lineup; he faced a lot more right handed batters, struggled with control and got shelled.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on May 9, 2008 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

actually

There are some similarities between those two teams:

1. Young top of the rotation starter: Bedard :: WW
2. One stud righthanded bat in the middle of the lineup: Tejada :: Pujols
3. Third basemen beginning to show signs of decline—Mora and Glaus
4. Bullpen full of aging LOOGY’s and young pitchers with a inconsistent closer (Ryan)
5. Poor defensive corner outfielder scheduled for a breakout season at the plate (Gibbons)
6. A bunch on unknowns in the rotation behind the top starter including a couple who have put together league average seasons (Ponson, R. Lopez)
7. Possible PED use hanging over certain members of the club (Sosa, Palmeiro :: Ankiel, Franklin)

All that being said, I think this Orioles teams looks much more like the ‘07 Cards than the ‘08 version. The current team has a lot more youth and they really don’t have a lot of money invested in bad contracts like the ‘05 Orioles (J. Lopez, Sosa). They also played in a division with two powerhouses and a pretty decent #3 team (Toronto), so a slide is much more predictable for them having to play an unbalanced schedule against the Yankees and Red Sox.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on May 9, 2008 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

I dunno about Ryan

he was pretty damn consistent—one of the best closers in the league that year.

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on May 9, 2008 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

i followed that team religiously

in my first year out east, it was a fun bandwagon to jump on, for a while anyway.

some points of clarification: sosa was traded for jerry hairston jr. and others (mike fontenot turned out to be one of the others). it was an option year of the cubs’ bad contract, but still.

the hot start was brought on mainly by the ridiculous april/may that brian roberts had. after hitting no more than 5 HR in a season previously, he had hit 11 by may 17 of that year, in addition to a .453 OBP at the top of the lineup. bedard started 5-1 but got hurt in late may and didn’t pitch again ‘til july. javy lopez broke his hand around the same time, and despite the heroics of pre-fu manchu sal fasano, there was too much geronimo gil involved. jorge julio was also lights out the first two months; on may 26 he had a 1.90 ERA, and finished the season just shy of 6. oh, and lee mazzilli was an idiot, they won in spite of him in the early going.

i still think that team had the goods (if not the manager) to hang in further that year, but injuries and the steroid/clubhouse issues really hurt ‘em. they stayed in first into june and were only ½ game out on july 18, but they went 1-14 in the next 15 games. then the palmeiro stuff came out, and it got really ugly.

i agree that that club was a lot more veteran than ours, it may not be a good comparison structure-wise. but it does prove that we need to avoid injuries, clubhouse issues (doubtful in our case) and steroid scandals.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on May 9, 2008 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Outfield

Ankiel may not be savior of the Cardinals. But the man is a top centerfielder. If he was a little bit more conistent with the bat he would be an All-Star IMO.

Right now I think Ludwick should get the start on most days instead of Duncan. He seems to be the only hitter to really do anything in the 4th spot.

That leaves Barton and Skip to fight it out. Skip has been great at the leadoff spot. Barton looked pretty bad against right handed pitching on Wenesday if I remember correctly. Skip seems to have cooled off a bit. Still got to love it how we have outfielders fighting for playing time.

Rasmus will make it to the bigs. To worry about someone hitting .200 the first month after moving up a level is silly. He has shown in the past that he can and more than likely will adjust. But it’s great that the team this year are not in a position where they are hurting without him.

As for the last two games. It’s the Major Leagues. It’s hard to sweep a 4 game series. Lohse wasn’t his best again. It’s never a good feeling when I guy has 2 bad starts in a row. I still like that he stayed out there and kept fighting. I didn’t watch the game so I really couldn’t tell. But judging by the game day thread he wasn’t getting the boarder line calls. Which Lohse needs to be effecient. And if he is forced to throw over the plate in that park…well.. The outcome would be a lot like thursday afternoon. I still think having him in the Rotation instead of Kip Wells makes this team so much better.

by Evilfrog on May 9, 2008 10:28 AM EDT reply actions  

Agree with

what Evilfrog said. I would rather see us questioning who to put in the outfield because all of our options offer something positive instead of questioning which option is the “lesser of two evils”.

by cardsgirl95 on May 9, 2008 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

LaRussa on WW abuse

Just wanted to point out a quote from LaRussa in today’s Post. After WW’s 120 pitch night, many were accusing him of being shortsighted in his use (or abuse, as many claimed) of WW. WW was pulled after the 7th inning wednesday, resulting in a bullpen implosion and a loss. LaRussa addressed it saying:

“Concluded La Russa: “The idea is to have him all year, all career to the best of his abilities. If we win a game in Colorado and in August or September he’s tired and not pitching effectively, then we’re not doing right by the team.” “

Not trying to refuel the fire of that debate – just saying that we can sometimes be a bit overly dramatic in our kneejerk responses to managerial decisions….

by cdb on May 9, 2008 10:36 AM EDT reply actions  

Promotion drop-off.

I’ve been thinking about this for a couple of years now. Has anyone noticed the distinct LACK of a drop-off in hitting for our newly promoted Memphis players. Guys like Duncan, Schumaker, Luddy, JRod, etc… just continue producing at about the same level as they did in the minors.

Do we need to readjust what we are thinking about the MLE’s of our AAA players? Is this trend (if it does exist) indicative of what we can expect of players being promoted from Memphis? Or, is this simply a short-term blip in the long-term performance of our players?

Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.

by Eckstreem on May 9, 2008 10:52 AM EDT reply actions  

Random thought

Bat Glaus 6th and Ankiel 5th?

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

PUT SKIP ON THE BALLOT!!!

by stltrav09 on May 9, 2008 10:58 AM EDT reply actions  

If Glaus can maintain his current pace,

he could possibly end up with 5 home runs this year. Is he on a down hill slide or just going through a temporary funk.

by ridgesee on May 9, 2008 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

PED withdrawl.

Who knows.

"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on May 9, 2008 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

could be

seems, like he’s come up with warning track power all of a sudden. a guy his size should be hitting ‘em further that Ludwick.

by ridgesee on May 9, 2008 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

temporary funk

he’s done it before on other teams. There’s no need to panic. Look at his doubles. The guy is still hitting for power, just not quite enough.

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on May 9, 2008 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Glaus

Power should come around if he stays healthy. I think he looks a bit gimpy at times and I really think he needs more time off than Albert by far. There is just something about him that makes me think his foot is getting a bit sore, and I think if he can stay healthy he should start to hit some balls out of the yard. A hurt foot can throw off things just enough that it takes away a bit of your power

by ICbirdfan on May 9, 2008 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

I vote Funk...

he’s been getting XBH, he just hasn’t “elevated” the ball yet. Glaus is a notoriously “streaky” hitter; I suspect once the weather warms up and he gets to hit in the bandboxes in Cincinnati and Philadelphia, he’ll smote the ol’ pelota over the wall.

(Sometimes my mind works in weird ways… thinking “Troy Glaus is in a funk” gave me the image of him dressed like this...)

Yikes!

"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra

by The Ol Goaler on May 9, 2008 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

new nickname?

atomic glaaaauuusss (think george clinton)

by mattybobo on May 9, 2008 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's the ballpark...

If you compare the ball park factors between Busch and Toronto, his lack of HRs is not all that surprising.

Start Ludwick

by DiscoJer on May 9, 2008 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Doh..

Forgot to add, a lot of his his doubles (which he has a lot of) would have been HRs in Toronto, but where only doubles in Busch.

Start Ludwick

by DiscoJer on May 9, 2008 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

how 'bout this

2 Ankiel, 3 Pujols, 4 Ludwick, 5 Glaus

by ifionly ... on May 9, 2008 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hasn't Ankiel

slumped big time in the 2nd spot?

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

PUT SKIP ON THE BALLOT!!!

by stltrav09 on May 9, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

plus.. AK in the 2nd spot

is working great

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

PUT SKIP ON THE BALLOT!!!

by stltrav09 on May 9, 2008 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Trying to outguess TLR

on lineup construction is an idiot’s game… but I’m an idiot, so here’s one goalie’s opinion (Parra’s a lefty):

Barton LF
Miles 2B
Pujols 1B
Ludwick RF
Glaus 3B
Ankiel CF
Molina C
Wellemeyer P
Izturis/Ryan SS

"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra

by The Ol Goaler on May 9, 2008 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Question for all

In Colorado Lud played LF and Barton played RF?

Barton’s weakness is his arm and in RF you generally put the stronger arm. However Lud really doesn’t have a great arm either. Why do you think thy put Barton in RF in Colorado? Was LF a tougher field to play in Colorado?

by ICbirdfan on May 9, 2008 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes

LF is tougher to play in Colorado. Looking at the field I don’t really know why. But Tony mentioned it on one of the pregame interviews. I believe it was for Tuesdays game with Shannon interviewing him. But I forget.

In a couple of parks I believe Barton will play right field for at least our first trip through them.

by Evilfrog on May 9, 2008 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

A lot of ground to cover in LF

It’s a huge field. We did the same thing in Pittsburgh earlier in the season.

by liam on May 9, 2008 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

thanks

I knew there was a reason but I never really heard it discussed why Barton was out there. I figured it had to deal with a tough LF but never really got an explination. Look what good things I miss by skiping the FSN pregame.

by ICbirdfan on May 9, 2008 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Skip/Barton
Kennedy
Mang
Ludwick
Ankiel
Glaus
Yadi
Pitcher
Ryan (Izturis)

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

PUT SKIP ON THE BALLOT!!!

by stltrav09 on May 9, 2008 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

au contraire

must have people on in front of albert or he’ll never see a strike worth swinging at.. highest obp should be in those slots

If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, perhaps you haven't grasped the situation!

by sportsman on May 9, 2008 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

I've always liked that thought

With Glaus, we have another Ron Gant/Reggie Sanders type streak-hitter with flashes of power (in Glaus’ case it’s doubles, not HRs). I love him in the 6th spot and Ank 5th.

"Well, folks, this game began as a tiny worm and is blossoming into a large cobra." - Mike "The Moon Man" Shannon

by Tudor's Electric Fan on May 9, 2008 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

that was my thought exactly..

I like that type of hitter in the 6 spot – probably not a rally starter (ie he won’t hit for average) but is good for some homers.

Of course, right now he’s not hitting homers and there’s a chance he could still hit for average this year (275-280 range).

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

PUT SKIP ON THE BALLOT!!!

by stltrav09 on May 9, 2008 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

thanks for that...

the past couple of games have upset me deeply, but great post, great pick-me-up.

by gashousegangup on May 9, 2008 11:49 AM EDT reply actions  

my thoughts exactly

our love for him now ain’t hard to esplain
the hero of st. lou, the man they call “Mang”

by mattybobo on May 9, 2008 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Are you saying we are mudders?

If you didn’t watch the show, I can’t even start to explain that one.

Staying OT: for those that did watch the show (and the movie), did you prefer the plump Kaylee from the show or the slimmed down Kaylee from the movie? I vote plump.

That said, the Cubs do deserve my pity, but never my support.

by Solanus on May 9, 2008 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

either

I just like chicks who are good with spaceship engines….

If I had to choose I’d probably say the slimmer version I guess

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on May 9, 2008 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

awesome reference!

I think that the tv show version fit her character better…

but honestly, either way, she’s goram attractive!

by A1R3Z on May 9, 2008 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'll be in my bunk

n/t

That said, the Cubs do deserve my pity, but never my support.

by Solanus on May 9, 2008 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

VEBer 1 / Zoë:      ”Tony’ll have a plan…always does.”
VEBer 2 / Kaylee: “That’s good, right?”
VEBer 1 / Zoë:      ”It’s possible you’re not recalling some of Tony’s previous plans…”

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on May 9, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Captain to Jayne

“Well my days of not taking you serious are certainly coming to a middle.”

by six on May 9, 2008 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Or, actually, VEBer to LaStache

by six on May 9, 2008 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Chain of Command

“You know what the chain of command is? It’s the chain lboros goes gets and beats you with ‘til ya understand who’s in ruttin’ command here!”

by Cardinal70 on May 9, 2008 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Az

very nice post….....I’m right behind you in the lunchline…........waiting for my extra helpings of crow and humble pie

by Hinkster on May 9, 2008 12:04 PM EDT reply actions  

Middle Infield Check

At a month an a half, we have a pretty consistant story with the middle infield. Absolutely no pop, but with surprisingly good obp. Also, the defense has been good, especially from Iz2.

AK
.310 .365 .368 w/ 4 extra-base hits.

Iz2ris
.244 .346 .289 w/4 extra-base hits

Ryan
.281 .303 .313 w/1 extra-base hit

All in all, I think this is a middle infield we can win with, so long as the pitching maintains its level quality.

So says, Titus Pullo (formerly The Dude)

by Titus Pullo on May 9, 2008 12:18 PM EDT reply actions  

Great OBP for Kennedy

but laughable SLG across the board.

"Well, folks, this game began as a tiny worm and is blossoming into a large cobra." - Mike "The Moon Man" Shannon

by Tudor's Electric Fan on May 9, 2008 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I believe

Ryan’s slug will come around a bit. Just haven’t had enough PAs.

by Evilfrog on May 9, 2008 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

AK has higher SLG than

C Duncan .247/.372/.364

That’s laughable. Or another way to look at it—we’re eight games over .500 with no production from Duncan or Glaus.

by gocards62 on May 9, 2008 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Which is beyond the realm of "laughable"

and more into the territory of “fuck the heck?”

"Well, folks, this game began as a tiny worm and is blossoming into a large cobra." - Mike "The Moon Man" Shannon

by Tudor's Electric Fan on May 9, 2008 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

ak, duncan, isolated power, line drives, babip, obp

this isn’t to necessarily say that duncan isn’t slumping, but slugging needs the context of average to be meaningful. kennedy’s isolated power is .368-.310 = .58, duncan’s is .364-.247=.117. so duncan is infact hitting the ball harder than kennedy.

comparing the two again, kennedy has 23% line drives while duncan is at 27.1%. kennedy’s formula-predicted babip is .230+.120=.350, and his actual is .365. not a big gap. duncan’s prediction is .271+.120=.391, but his actual is only .298. that indicates bad luck, and empirically related i’ve seen duncan smoke several line drives into infield gloves.

finally, even if a player were prohibited to take extra bases an obp of .372 against a league average .330 wouldn’t match my definition of “no production”. first and foremost i like to see batters not recording outs. i recognize that duncan has to rely on his pop more than others to make up for his shortcomings on defense, though.

by astrostl on May 9, 2008 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

quick follow-up on glaus

.225/.336/.350. isolated power is .125, ld is 16.8% babip is .277, predicted babip is .288.

by astrostl on May 9, 2008 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Excellent post

Anecdotally, Dunc’s also hit quite a few screamers straight into the gloves of outfielders, iirc.

His luck is sure to turn around eventually and overcome his defensive deficiencies. Unfortunately, with Ludwick absolutely en fuego, Skippy currently favored as leadoff, and Li’l Dunc’s complete inability to hit lefties, that may take awhile…since he’s likely to see fewer ABs over the next few weeks.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on May 9, 2008 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

So send Lil Dunc to Memphis

on a rehab assignment and let him get some ABs.

by gocards62 on May 9, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Correction
“Also, the defense has been good, especially from Iz2.”

I think that should read: “Also, the defense has been outstanding, especially from Iz2.”

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on May 9, 2008 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rasmus needs to be taken out of the lead off spot

that’s how they fixed his struggles before. Let him bat 6th or 7th where he doesn’t have to worry about working the count and getting on base as much.

Also, speaking of shiny things, how about Jaime Garcia’s AAA debut last night? He was filllllthy.

boo cubs, hooray beer

by Raconteur on May 9, 2008 12:22 PM EDT reply actions  

I can recall years

with much more “predictable” Cards teams than this one when we’d have been delighted with a split at Coors Field. My memory may be faulty, but I seem to recall the Cards always having trouble winning in Denver…

As far as possible for May, this weekend series with the Brew Crew is important; we face Sheets and Suppan this go-round, so having The Colonel outpitch Mr. Parra and his 5.86 ERA tonight would be a great help!

Prince Fielder is 3 for his last 17, with just one HR in his last 10 games, while Ryan Braun is 2 for his last 20 over 5 games—but Corey Hart is hitting .351 in his last 10 games.

Get ‘em while they’re cold, boys!

"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra

by The Ol Goaler on May 9, 2008 12:31 PM EDT reply actions  

nothing faulty about your memory

tlr has struggled with how to play coors. i like to say that baseball here is something like baseball in that it’s played by the same rules. at one point, the avg. number of runs scored at coors was 13/game.

tlr pitched kile here after he struggled while with the rox. this was also the site of what i simply refer to as the eckersly game when mabry hit for the cycle and we went to the bottom of the 9th leading by 5 but after a 2 run shot by ellis burks, eck gave up a ph grand slam to john vanderwal to lose the game.

i’d be stunned if the birds are near or over .500 since coors opened in ‘96.

by sdesserman on May 9, 2008 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Actually, Coors opened in 1995

Here’s a year-by-year breakdown of the Cardinals W/L at Coors since 1995, courtesy of Retrosheet’s database:

Cards at Coors
Year    Wins    Losses
1995       4             2
1996       0             6
1997       2             4
1998       4             2
1999       3             0
2000       1             3
2001       1             5
2002       3             0
2003       1             2
2004       3             0
2005       2             2
2006       2             1
2007       2             2
2008       2             2
Total      30           31

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on May 9, 2008 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I AM happy

With a spilt at Coors field. 4 game series with the world champs in thier house. And you spilt the series as well as win the Season series. Im happy with it.

The dissapointing part was losing game 3 in the 8th inning. 3-1 lead and your ace pitched a great game. So yeah, I believe we should have won game three to take the series 3-1. But I am still happy with the spilt.

by Evilfrog on May 9, 2008 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

world champs?

We don’t play in Boston until June, dude ;)

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on May 9, 2008 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

common misconception

the winner of the national league is actually the champion of baseball. then there’s the american league, which plays something a lot like baseball, only the pitchers don’t have to hit, and according to official rules only teams from boston and new york are allowed to compete for the championship. then the winner of baseball (NL) and bizarro-ball play in a seven game exhibition “world series”.

by mattybobo on May 9, 2008 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

lol +1

"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on May 9, 2008 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rasmus is not a sure thing

Last season when he was in AA, i got to see him play several times. I lived in Springfield then, and was able to track his ups and downs over the course of an entire season. I said it last year and I think it’s proving true so far this year: He’s got amazing potential but he’s too streaky and he’s not ready. He needs to finish developing outside of the spotlight before he takes center stage.

I’m glad he started in AAA this year, and at this rate I wouldn’t mind seeing him spending the whole year there, minus late-season call-ups. He always seems to get his hits in bunches, not unlike the Jim Edmonds we once knew and loved. (Okay, I STILL love Jimmy…) Rasmus has amazing ability, talent and potential, but he’s only 21 years old. I think he’ll be a key to the future of the Cardinals, but I don’t think he’s going to be a savior for the team. For now, I think it’s best to take the “Heir to the throne” pressure off his shoulders so he can square up and start jacking dongs again.

by effin fisk on May 9, 2008 1:07 PM EDT reply actions  

lot of discussion on Rasmus at the birdhouse forum

obviously, since it’s devoted to prospects. Anyway, Colby’s dad weighs in quite a bit; it sounds like Colby isn’t very happy in Memphis, and that’s affecting his play. Apparently it’s no fun and there are too many old grumpy people on the team.

I’m starting to think we should have turned him into Bedard while he was still shiny and fresh… last thing we need is another prima donna in the clubhouse.

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on May 9, 2008 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Never any problems like that in Springfield that I know of

We don’t know the whole story, so let’s not jump to conclusions.

by saladdays on May 9, 2008 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ouch

Colby’s dad doesn’t pull any punches when he’s criticizing the kid.

If the current outfield continues to play like they have and Colby continues to play like his mother…

Although I’m pretty sure he’ll break out of his funk pretty quick. The olympic qualifying tournament did wonders for Skip Schumaker. Hopefully playing in the real show will help him so much.

by liam on May 9, 2008 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Real Show

meaning the final appearance of Baseball in the olympic games.

by liam on May 9, 2008 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

I hope so

but don’t have your confidence in the wisdom of the IOC.

Without skirting into politics, it’s a shame that things like the Iranian baseball program are unlikely to keep up with the game out of the olympics.

by liam on May 9, 2008 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah

if my dad talked about me like that in a public forum, I’d break his nose. Or just stop talking to him entirely.

Still, what he’s saying about Colby is upsetting, and unfortunately fits with the behavior I observed in the spring. Lets hope you’re right about the Olympics motivating him…

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on May 9, 2008 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

His dad raised him and his brothers to be MLB players

Very motivated family. Not too surprised to hear those comments from his dad, but a public forum isn’t the best place.

I almost ran over his grandparents on my way to interview Colby last year. That might’ve dampened the interview, I imagine…

by effin fisk on May 9, 2008 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

I gotta agree about what his dad is saying

””He said Springfield was playing baseball for fun and that Memphis was a job, with a bunch of miserable old people.”

What if that gets out to the “miserable old people” on the team? Then, not only will Colby be slumping, but he’ll also be a pariah.

boo cubs, hooray beer

by Raconteur on May 9, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

If Mozeliak does in fact read VEB

... PLEASE TELL TONY THAT LUDWICK IS EVEN BETTER VS. RHP THAN LHP.

I know that flies in the face of Tony’s lefty/righty world view, but, per Baseball Prospectus:

“St. Louis will be facing a left-handed starter for the fourth straight game, which means a fourth straight chance to start for righty-hitting corner outfielder Ryan Ludwick. In the past three games, Ludwick is 8-for-12 with two doubles, three homers, and a walk. On the season, Ludwick is hitting .282/.383/.718 against left-handers—but he’s at .423/.464/.788 against righties, and for his career actually has a higher OBP (.355 to .300) and SLG (.503 to .458) in 475 plate appearances against righties than he does in his 332 versus southpaws. Ludwick did not start in any of the team’s four previous games against right-handed starters…”

by salvomania on May 9, 2008 1:17 PM EDT reply actions  

I know...

just what the guy has to do to get a starting job is beyond me. This is the second time he’s been the team leader in HRs this year, despite being only a part time player.

Start Ludwick

by DiscoJer on May 9, 2008 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Mulder is pitching for the dbags today against the scrubs.

whoops, i meant haren.

"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on May 9, 2008 2:24 PM EDT reply actions  

Hey wait! I get it..French class!

No seriously. For a moment I was like, how can he mistake Mulder for haren. And then it came to me.

by Evilfrog on May 9, 2008 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

A lot of people are ahead of themselves with the optimism....

What we’ve seen with Izzy is a complete breakdown, no doubt about it. He is, afterall, one of the cornerstones of the team. I’m wondering if our bullpen is about to go on life support…seriously. Anyone following this team in late innings will not have any fingernails left. SOS for our bullpen…I never thought this would be our wink link. We are lucky to play .500 with the status quo IMHO.

mattnj

by mattnj on May 9, 2008 3:20 PM EDT reply actions  

at least there's some crappy bullpens

on our main competition’s teams. seems like most teams have a crappy bullpen.

anyway, nice post azru. reminds me of this picture over here ——>

so I hear Miller Park has a roof. I was worried that Sunday’s game I’m attending was going to be rained out. what are the pitching matchups for the series?

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 9, 2008 3:39 PM EDT reply actions  

Rosenthal..

is reporting that the Padres will indeed release Edmonds on Friday. It also says that he is still looking to play. Any guesses on where he might wind up? A lot of people are talking about Seattle…My personal opinion is that he should just hang it up.

"Ding-dong the wicked witch is dead!" - Wayne Hagin after the cardinals snapped a losing streak

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on May 9, 2008 4:19 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm not so sure that TLR..

would endorse that idea, but it would be neat to see him in a cards uniform again. Maybe after TLR leaves we could see a coaching staff of Jose Oquendo as manager, Mike Matheney as pitching coach, Larry Walker as hitting coach, Edmonds and McGee as 1B and 3B coaches and Ozzie Smith or Tony Pena as bench coach. Damn I should have put more thought into this and made it a fanpost….

"Ding-dong the wicked witch is dead!" - Wayne Hagin after the cardinals snapped a losing streak

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on May 9, 2008 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

man

that’s like a perfect coaching staff!

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 9, 2008 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yea...

I really think it should be a fanpost. I think that would be fun to kick around names like this. I just don’t have the time today to put together something intelligent. If anybody else wanted to do it that would be cool.

"Ding-dong the wicked witch is dead!" - Wayne Hagin after the cardinals snapped a losing streak

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on May 9, 2008 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

it would be cool

to have McGee around (maybe he should be the hitting coach?). I think he’d bring good luck if nothing else.

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 9, 2008 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wow

That just makes me sad. But at least that last minute trade worked out for us.

Speaking of trades, Rolen is currently hitting .318/.392/.614 in Toronto. It’s only 51 PAs, but man…it sure would be nice to have a 1.006 OPS from our third baseman hitting 4th or 5th in the lineup (compared to Glaus’ .686).

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on May 9, 2008 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

it sure would...

but unfortunately the trade had to happen, and I like seeing the cards in 1st with Glaus and Izturis better than looking at the DEAD LAST blue jays with Rolen and Eckstein

"Ding-dong the wicked witch is dead!" - Wayne Hagin after the cardinals snapped a losing streak

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on May 9, 2008 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

or the dead last Padres...with or without Edmonds

"Ding-dong the wicked witch is dead!" - Wayne Hagin after the cardinals snapped a losing streak

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on May 9, 2008 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Its official

Jimmy Ballgame was released from the Pads. It’s sad to see, hopefully he can catch on somewhere if that is indeed what he wants to do.

Best of luck in and out of baseball Jimmy!

by joecardsfan on May 9, 2008 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

oh lord...

he was replaced on the roster by Jody Gerut. Ouch!

"Ding-dong the wicked witch is dead!" - Wayne Hagin after the cardinals snapped a losing streak

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on May 9, 2008 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

A Mozeliak move paying instant dividends.

Dumping Jimmy Baseball’s salary (as much as I love the guy and wish he could’ve retired a Cardinal, etc etc etc) has already proven to be a great move. Kudos are in order.

"Well, folks, this game began as a tiny worm and is blossoming into a large cobra." - Mike "The Moon Man" Shannon

by Tudor's Electric Fan on May 9, 2008 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

"E byrnes struck out swinging...

...A Ojeda out at second on batter’s interference”.

Why does stuff like this always seem to happen in Cubs games? It’s like there’s an inning of bizarro-ball every single game that I watch that involves them.

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on May 9, 2008 4:32 PM EDT reply actions  

DLee homers and now the Cubs are up 3-1

damnit DBacks, I was really hoping they’d sweep the Cubs

boo cubs, hooray beer

by Raconteur on May 9, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Cubs are playing great at Wrigley this year

heck they may sweep the snakes. Which is why we need to win some games this weekend. Now the Cubs on the road…that’s a different story.

by KYCards on May 9, 2008 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ha!

I love being reminded of their feeble attempt at a post season last year. It makes 2006 that much sweeter too.

by mattybobo on May 9, 2008 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can only imagine how frustrating that must've been

It just made me laugh though after how unlucky last year’s season was for the cards

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 9, 2008 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was listening on XM

and thought the same thing, “Stuff like that could only happen in Chicago.”

by cardsgirl95 on May 9, 2008 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Was reading BA Chat, and they don't think Rasmus's slump is anything to worry about

Tim from MO asks:
What is wrong with Colby Rasmus?

A: Ben Badler: Nothing, really. Guys go through five-week stretches like this all the time, especially when they’re young for their level. I talked to a scout the other day who said he was far and away the best player on the field and that he looked like a Steve Finley-Grady Sizemore hybrid

boo cubs, hooray beer

by Raconteur on May 9, 2008 5:09 PM EDT reply actions  

Oh and todays lineups are up at bernies pressbox

Schumaker
Miles 4
Pujols
Ludwick
Glaus
Ankiel
Molina
Welleyemer
Izturis 6

Weeks
Cameron
Braun
Fielder
Hart
Hall
Hardy
Parra 1
Kendall

boo cubs, hooray beer

by Raconteur on May 9, 2008 5:10 PM EDT reply actions  

near perfect lineup

except maybe have kennedy instead of miles and ryan instead of izturis. they should just switch that out mid game and start alternating

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 9, 2008 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think it's more

if they would LET him play 2nd base…

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

PUT SKIP ON THE BALLOT!!!

by stltrav09 on May 9, 2008 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

well yeah

but that’s crazy talk

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 9, 2008 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Man... I know the Brewers are pretty bad right now

but that’s a pretty solid lineup.

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

PUT SKIP ON THE BALLOT!!!

by stltrav09 on May 9, 2008 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah

we need to cure are RISP problem, or there will be a whole lotta nailbaiters regardless who we play.

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 9, 2008 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

It happens.

Im normally doing three things at once when I post here. And some of my thoughts posts are pretty hard to follow. But with spelling and logic.

by Evilfrog on May 9, 2008 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

English Teachers

Reading this blog would give an English teacher facial tics

That said, the Cubs do deserve my pity, but never my support.

by Solanus on May 9, 2008 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Tomorrow's FOX broadcast
MLB ON FOX
Local listings for Week 6 — Saturday, May 10
(as of 5/5/08 @ 2:30 p.m. – Games and listings subject to change)

GAME SUMMARIES (start times are all 3:30 p.m. ET):
Yankees at Tigers – 54% — Dick Stockton, Eric Karros, Ken Rosenthal
Cardinals at Brewers – 8% — Dan McLaughlin, Bill Schroeder
D-Backs at Cubs – 37% — Kenny Albert, Mark Grace

Link here. (This link works every week, by the way, but they usually don’t update it until Thursday or Friday each week.)

So now I have to try and figure out how to hijack a FOX signal…

I have a love/hate relationship with the Cardinals' middle relief corps.

by madding on May 9, 2008 7:03 PM EDT reply actions  

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