Izturis update. Is he a solid contributor?

by CardsWin on May 7, 2008 4:09 PM EDT

How is Cesar Izturis doing just over 20% of the way into the season? Has he been a solid contributor, as this VEB fan predicted in an earlier fan post?

Fielding

Cesar's RZR stands at .897. That is second in MLB only to Troy Tulowitzki among qualified SS’s. Izturis is still approximating the gold glove form he displayed the last time he was playing healthy and full time, in 2004 and early 2005.

Hitting

Cesar's OBP stands at .354. That's better than the 7th ranking ML SS, out of the 25 ML SS’s with enough AB’s to qualify for the batting title.

But Cesar's SLG is very low, even lower than expected, only .293, slightly better than the 22nd ranking SS (out of 25).

That makes Cesar's OPS .647, very low, only slightly better than the 19th ranking ML SS (out of 25).

That 19th ranked SS happens to be David Eckstein.

Comparing Izturis to all ML Hitters This Season

Many in this forum have repeatedly bemoaned Izturis' weak hitting (he's certainly no Renterria or Tulowitzki, we all agree), but a few have even referred to Cesar as the worst hitter in the major leagues. Let's test that assertion:

Of the 193 qualified batters to date this season, 33 have an OPS lower than Izturis. That is, Cesar has a better OPS than 17% of the full-time ML players. Okay, he's not a great hitter. None of us imagined he would be. But Izturis so far has been a respectable hitter, though barely so.

The season is only one fifth finished, though. So we can expect all player stats to gravitate, or regress, toward their career averages (or, more precisely, to the next point on their rising or falling career performance curve, depending on age and epxerience). The fact that one fifth of a season is too small a sample size to make a projection for a full year is strikingly illustrated by looking at some of those 33 players who today have a lower OPS than Izturis but at least some of whom are extremely good bets to end up with much better numbers than Cesar by the end of the season:

Gary Shefield
Ryan Howard
David Eckstein
Adam LaRoche
Ryan Zimmerman
J.J. Hardy
Freddy Sanchez
Khalil Greene
Andruw Jones
Mike Lamb

Wow. It will be a bit of a surprise for most fans to see Izturis hitting better than Eckstein. But to see Izturis outhitting Sheffield and Howard is a shock! Hail, Cesar!

A Solid but Not Great Contribution So Far

So far, Izturis is right on track to match his OBP from his last period of good health and full time play (2004 and early 2005), so we should expect about the same OBP the rest of the year. His .293 SLG is 40 points lower than his career SLG, though: .333. And his SLG this year is about 90 points lower than Cesar's .381 SLG in 2004, his last full year of healthy, full-time play. So it appears safe to say that we can reasonably expect Izturis to hit more doubles and a few more triples than he has so far this season.

Let's check in again at the mid-point of the season and see how Izturis is doing by then, when we'll have a more solid basis for projecting his stats for the whole year.

0 recs | Comment 26 comments | Add your comment

Read Related

Story-email Email | Print |

Comments

Good Points Made....

...but here is a further cowparison between Eckstein and Izturis. We know Izturis is slightly better in OPS than Eckstein, (.647 VS .637) but:

Steals – Eckstein is 2 out of 3 (66%); Izturis is 1 out of 4 (25%)
Defense – Eck has 6 errors and a .953 fielding %; Izturis has 2 errors (dispite a horrible spring) and a .983 fielding % Eck has turned moore double plays (20) than Izturis (13)
Eck is slugging .322 to Izturis’ .293 with 38 moore at bats, but Eck has produced moore runs in that span (28) than Izturis (18).
Izturis hits a solid .286 with RISP; Eck is better at .303 RISP.
Eck hits about the same at home or away (.009 pt difference); Izturis hits better at home (.255) than away (.222), a difference of .033.

I’d say they are very close to being the same, except in steals (edge Eck) and defense (so far edge Cesar). But their both clearly bottom-feeders at SS with the League. Izturis might not be that much worse, or better, than Eckstein, but we still definitely need an upgrade, especially in a line-up where the #9 guy is really the 2nd lead-off man in TL’s scheme.

:=8)

"We're against society, authority, and anything else that ends in y"
- Johnny Rotten

by The MooCow on May 7, 2008 5:02 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Izturis has made TONS of plays that Eckstein would've had no chance on

boo cubs, hooray beer

by Raconteur on May 7, 2008 10:09 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Exactly

I just read all the comments and yours makes the most important point. The terrific ERA our starters sport is due in no small part to the range of Cesar and his ability to convert those balls he reaches into outs. WIth Tulo on the shelf he gives the Cards the #1 RZR SS in the league. That, and not the hitting stats, is what he was brought to STL for, and he has delivered so far. It’s hard to argue with the W column right now.

by Hal Lanier's Pants on May 9, 2008 3:13 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

If the patience is real, then he isn't terrible

I don’t expect him to slug .293 the whole season, but the walk rate will come down.

by JI on May 7, 2008 5:05 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Well

What you are saying is…our new crappy short stop is a bit better than our old crappy short stop. Unfortunately, we still have a crappy short stop. Not that there’s anything wrong with it.

jwilson

by taguchi on May 7, 2008 6:08 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Just accept it

you’ll feel better.

by RabidBuffalo on May 7, 2008 7:06 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

I find it hard to accept

when Ryan is riding pine. If there was no one in our system, then okay, I’ll accept it, but there is someone else in our system.

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on May 8, 2008 1:53 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Is it ironic...

that about a week and a half ago, or four weeks into the season when Izturus’ line was .186/.237/.333 (OPS – .570) I was wondering to myself:

Self, where is Cardswin and his support for Iz2 at these days?

Since that time Iz2 has put up a line of .391/.416/.435 (OPS – .851). Better get this post in while the gettin’s good!!

by cardzfanbub on May 7, 2008 7:34 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

i think we're all supporting iz2

I mean, we WANT him to do well and prove us wrong. We just don’t have the faith that CardsWin has ;)

Just for the record, RZR has Brendan Ryan as quite superior to izturis defensively at SS. of course it’s still small sample for Ryan, but that cuts both ways- balls not caught are magnified, and Ryan has made every play RZR says he should have so far (17 of 17) while izturis is 73 for 84 (.869).

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on May 7, 2008 8:36 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

I think Iz is slightly better than Ryan. Little bit better hands and a touch quicker.

by ICbirdfan on May 8, 2008 12:16 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

i don't know

what I saw in spring training made me think Ryan was a lot faster than iz2 with the first step, and that ryans hands were much better. To me it wasn’t even questionable then, and i was shocked that derrick goold and knowledgeable guys like laRussa kept saying otherwise; iz2 must have just been dogging it in S.T., because the practices i spent hours watching were frankly not a contest. i even thought laRue looked better at short in s.t. than izturis. he looked AWFUL.

However, watching the games on TV so far this year, since they haven’t made it out west yet (except to SF when ryan was on the DL), I’ve had the opposite impression. Iz2 has looked very good, and ryan has seemed to just get it done. he hasn’t made a lot of spectacular plays, though i haven’t seen him mess anything up. Iz2 has made some great plays.

But by the tht numbers- and I’ll be very interested in what they say, come july or august- ryan has been the better defender. Unlke izturis, he’s made all the plays, every single one, that he is expected to, at SS, and he’s on a pace to exceed iz2’s out-of-the-zone numbers once he’s had a similar number of chances.

This will certainly be an interesting test of this particular defensive metric…

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on May 8, 2008 12:39 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

yes

I was thinking the same thing. These posts are definitely conveniently timed. I’d rather the updates be monthly on the same day of each month. Or something less subjective, at least . . . kinda hurts the credibility.

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on May 8, 2008 1:54 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

I like Cesar's D

and he appears to be trying to be better at offense. can’t ask for much more than that

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 7, 2008 7:50 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

cubs fan with a thought about my former SS

i think that izturis cannot hit worth shit but who cares. the guy plays spectacular defense and is a very energetic player.

by columbusOHcubsfan on May 7, 2008 8:37 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

wow...

Thanks for the descriptive anal slant re: Izturis’ hitting , it gives your post so much more credibility, and brings Cubs fans directly to mind.

by cardschinmusic on May 8, 2008 4:52 AM EDT reply reply 0 recs

I Would Still Rather See....

....Ryan starting at SS; if Izturis is a + defender, that’s good enough as a reserve or late-inning replacement. Ryan can hit, full stop.

:=8)

"We're against society, authority, and anything else that ends in y"
- Johnny Rotten

by The MooCow on May 8, 2008 9:15 AM EDT reply reply 0 recs

GPA rather than OPS

OPS can be deceptive because it weights slugging and OBP equally. OBP is more important for creating runs. Hardball times calculates a GPA (gross production average) that is equal to ((1.8*OBP)+SLG)/4, and is park adjusted. This shifts weight to OBP and puts the overall measure on a batting average scale (.200 is bad, .250 is okay, .300 is great). Pujols’ GPA is around .370.

Izturis’s GPA is .235. For someone reason, is not on the “qualified” list (I think because he’s walked too much to have enough ABs per game—how ironic). However, you can compare his GPA to the 24 SS who are on the qualified list. Izturis has a similar number of PAs as them. Here’s what it reveals:

.235 would rank him tied for 16/24 with Jeff Keppinger.

Within ten points above above (.235 to .245) him are:
Jeter, Crosby, Peralta, Aybar, Renteria, Lugo

More than ten points below him (below .225) are:
Eckstein, Hardy, Bruntlett, Greene, Bartlett, Cabrera, Tulo

He’s *not *Ramirez, Furcal, Tejada, Reyes, etc., but he’s in very solid SS company.

A rough estimate is that he would rank 320/360 our of all qualified MLB players. That puts him within 1 point of: Austin Kearns, Ivan Rodriguez, Carlos Delgado

The question: Will his OBP hold up (and therefore his GPA)?

Another plus—Izturis is cheap. All that said, I’d like Ryan to get more playing time.

by ncgostl on May 8, 2008 12:17 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

re: Izturis is cheap...

... and Ryan is cheaper.

I agree – I’d love to see Ryan getting more playing time as well.

by A1R3Z on May 8, 2008 12:22 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

GPA

Wow, GPA seems to be a pretty cool stat. Thanks for the analysis. Where do you find this statistic for each player?

"A hot dog at the ballpark is better than a steak at the Ritz." Humphrey Bogart

by MRCARD on May 8, 2008 1:15 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Hardball Times

Here’s the link to the stats page:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/

Once there, you can choose to select league, position, and specific stats (e.g., standard batting stats or their own sabermetrically oriented stats like GPA).

There is also a separate team stats page. Fun stuff to poke around in.

Baseball-reference.org is also a great site to explore if you’re not a regular visitor….

by ncgostl on May 8, 2008 7:24 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Who cares what players are randomly by Izturis

He could be outhitting Albert Pujols and it doesn’t matter. Cherry picking prominent names does nothing but skew the stats by adding subjective elements to them.

Does anyone really think he’s a better offensive player than Tulowitski? If not, then why even mention that?

by azruavatar on May 9, 2008 12:50 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Az

The key is that I didn’t cherrypick – I reported his .235 GPA and a number of people above and below him, including the fact that there are 16 SS above him, 8 below. I picked Austin Kearns for fun. It was a joke.

I think GPA is better than OPS. I didn’t cherrypick stats either.

And, most importantly, I concluded with the fact that his GPA is in the 16/24 position due to OBP—which may or may not last. That is the sample size/long range projection problem. I made no case one way or the other and called attention to it as a problem.

All balanced, with one little joke thrown in…..

by ncgostl on May 9, 2008 8:09 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

and

the theme of the post is what Iz2 has contributed so far, with reference to a bunch of specific players. GPA for the 24 MLB SSs thus far in the season is relevant to the theme of the post…..

I never made a claim that recent performance is indicative of the remaining careers of Iz2 or Tulo…...

by ncgostl on May 9, 2008 9:11 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Thanks....

Now I know why my fantasy team sucks…I have half of the players that are hitting worse than Cesar Izturis.

I will now light myself on fire…........

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on May 8, 2008 5:16 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Just for comparison: BA, OBP, SLG.

C. Duncan .247 .372 .364
C. Izturis, .244 .346 .289

What’s wrong with C Duncan???

by gocards62 on May 9, 2008 8:13 AM EDT reply reply 0 recs

what isn't wrong with C Duncan?

Spectacular failures on defense, only 6 rbis (Izturis has 5), .244 BA – following an OPS of .677 in the second half of 2007. I like the kid, and recall his contributions in 2006, but he has played himself onto the bench. I suspect physical problems and a loss of confidence, stoked by the surprising success of Skip, Ludwick, and Barton. Trade value? what trade value?

OTOH, Izturis has been the glove we hoped for and needed, and his weak hitting has been offset by a high walk rate. We pretty much got what we paid for. But i’d like to see more of Ryan.

by madridbend on May 9, 2008 12:37 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs