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Ludwick as a full-time starter

Tiny by gossard56 on

I've been beating the "start Ludwick drum" most nights in the game threads but decided to throw this up as a fanpost.  It might seem convenient that I'm posting this the day after Ludwick goes 4-4 but it is mostly coincidence (i happen to have some free time this morning). 

 

 

 

Ok, the current situation has Duncan starting against righties and Ludwick starting against lefties.  This makes some sense since Duncan struggles against lefties so give the right handed Ludwick the start against them.  So far this has worked well with Ludwick hitting .250/.368/.594 with 3hrs against lefties.  The only problem is that Ludwick hits righties even better then he does lefties!  Through out his whole career he has hit righties better than lefties and this season he is hitting a Pujolsian .362/.412/.660 against righties.

I know Duncan supporters say that Ludwick can't sustain this type of hitting, that he is a journeyman that is on a hot streak.  Well, you must remember that he was a top hitting prospect coming up through the minors who had a couple of hard luck injuries hit just as he was getting his chance.  Sure his numbers will settle back down somewhat, but there is no reason to think this isn't true ability finally being displayed now that he is healthy and been givin a chance.

I won't go into discussing how Duncan's power has all but dissapeared for a fairly long streach now.  Bernie covered that with an article this morning. 

I also don't need to discuss the defensive side of the comparison between the two.  No contest there with Ludwick winning that in a landslide.

Based on Ludwick's play last year and this year he has earned the chance to play everyday in the outfield.  In fact, it seems pretty clear cut that Ludwick, Shu and Ankiel have solidified themselves as our starting OF.  They can all 3 hit righties and lefties well enough to not bother with platoons and they give us our best possible OF defense.  In fact i'd say that group is as good as anyones OF defensively.  I'd also have Barton as the 4th OF with the ability to start for all 3 of these guys giving them days off. 

I'd like to know what others thoughts are on Ludwick and Duncan.  I feel like its a fairly even split around here on this topic.  I know I have a few people with my back on this one.

 

 

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BM has a good blog on Duncan

in the PD. Basically he says the problem is Duncan loss of power over the last year. Duncan is a defensive ? but he makes up for it with a power bat.

Maybe Chris needs a rehab assignment in Memphis to regain his stroke. I’d love to see what Mather could do spelling him or possibly Glaus.

by gocards62 on May 7, 2008 11:13 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

hell, duncan probably still has options

since he stuck in the majors so easily

"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams

by Valatan on May 7, 2008 12:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

"hoorah"

Pronounced hoo-rah, emphasis on the hoo…(little sleepy still) :)

by stlfan on May 7, 2008 12:17 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

um..

Pronouced oo-rah.

by Evilfrog on May 7, 2008 12:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Totally agree...

unfortunately this would relegate Duncan to a bench role, which has to greatly diminish what trade value he has remaining. Ludwick may very well be the second best hitter on the team, and until he shows otherwise he should be starting everyday in right or left IMO. To this point we have to be very pleasantly surprised with the play of our outfield rotation…as well as our MIF rotation.

by cardzfanbub on May 7, 2008 11:22 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Agreed

Also, it would help balance out the severely lefthanded lineup. Ludwick has shown what he can do with 200-300 ABs; let’s see what he can do with 450-500.

Duncan is an AL player, and needs to become one as quickly as possible.

by blove121 on May 7, 2008 11:25 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

severly LH lineup?

pujols and glaus balance out the lefthandedness pretty well.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on May 7, 2008 11:41 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Agreed

He needs to be starting full time—after watching Duncan in left field on Sunday and Monday night, it makes no sense to keep putting him out there when he’s not even hitting as well as Ludwick is.

Duncan does need AB’s, though, to get out of this funk. Not sure how you work both of them in unless you send Chris to Memphis.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on May 7, 2008 11:39 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Duncan on the bench

What a weapon Duncan would be in the pinch hit roll. When have we ever had a power lefthanded bat on the bench of that caliber? Totally agree that Ludwick has earned the fulltime starting job in the OF. Tony has promised to play Albert less this season. So far, that has not happened but it needs to. Albert will break down at this pace. C. Duncan should get some starts at 1B and only an occasionally OF start IMHO.

by jjray on May 7, 2008 11:52 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

we had quite the discussion

of this issue in the morning discussion thread yesterday.

i added a bunch of data supporting my opinion that the PT distribution shouldn’t be much different that what it is now, so i won’t rehash all that. the key things i’d like people to consider when talking about replacing dunc with ludwick full-time:

1) despite ludwick’s reverse platoon split, dunc still has about an 80-point OPS advantage v. ludwick against RHP over the course of their careers (both have ~500 PA+).

2) as much as ludwick is exceeding expectations at the plate so far, dunc has (at least quantitatively) exceeded them in the field according to RZR; monday was his first truly bad game of the season.

3) the majority of ludwick’s PT already comes at the expense of duncan, for whom it would be pushing it to call him a “regular”. i would prefer any additional PT for ludwick to come from either schumaker or ankiel (preferrably skip). as fourstick states, dunc needs ABs, so relegating him to exclusively a bench role would probably not be prudent. i’d hate to see him go to memphis, because you’d have to bring up another OF – i assume rasmus would be the logical choice, and he needs the full-time ABs just like dunc.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on May 7, 2008 11:54 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Not Colby...

Duncan won’t get sent to Memphis—it just won’t happen, I was simply trying to figure out a way for him to get at-bats without sacrificing the good of the team, which is what is happening when Ludwick isn’t in the lineup.

Agreed, Duncan does have a higher OPS advantage over the course of their careers, but I don’t think we’ve ever seen this version of Ryan Ludwick either, and there’s no reason to beleive that this is a fluke. It’s entirely possible that a healthy Ludwick could put up a +.850 OPS.

I don’t think you can pull Skip out of the lineup considering the way that he’s been playing of late, and removing Ankiel from CF would really do damage to the defense. I really don’t know where Duncan is going to get at-bats currently, but at some point someone in the mix has to start struggling right?

Any way you look at it, it’s a great problem to have!

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on May 7, 2008 1:28 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

The only arguement i can see

is that we need to keep playing Duncan to increase his trade value. We absolutely must trade an OF at some point this season. With Rasmus and Mather banging on the door in Memphis we will need to thin out the major league outfield. Duncan seems the obvious chose on the current roster to be traded. Howver, he certainly would bring more in a trade if he was mashing the ball like early 07’ then what he is doing now.

But! I still have to side with putting the best team on the field day in and day out, and not compomising the team just to “get Duncan out of his funk” or “to raise Duncan’s trade value”.

Our best team is with Ludwick starting daily.

by gossard56 on May 7, 2008 12:09 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

The awkward part of that equation...

Is that if Duncan suddenly starts mashing again, the Cards (and we) won’t want him to be traded, because he’ll become a real asset again.

I’ve always wondered the club stance on trading Chris; if Dave has said to the front office “Do what you need to do, treat him like another ballplayer,” and if so, how much stock they put in Chris’ presence making Dave a very happy coach.

by RedbirdAvenger on May 7, 2008 12:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I don't know

But Dave seems to be the type of Guy who would be willing to trade Duncan away for some pitching.

by Evilfrog on May 7, 2008 12:32 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

dave duncan

he has been in professional baseball since1963 I think he knows how things work. To suggest Chris in on the team or has not been traded due to Dave Duncan’s presence is just stupid in my opinion.

by ICbirdfan on May 7, 2008 1:04 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I have to respectfully disagree...
...if Duncan suddenly starts mashing again, the Cards (and we) won’t want him to be traded, because he’ll become a real asset again.

IMO if Duncan can start mashing again we should be more willing to trade him, as the return will be better. He obviously is not an outfielder, and the sooner he becomes a firstbaseman or DH the better. We simply have three better OF options than Chris right now and his bat is too big to keep on the bench.

by cardzfanbub on May 7, 2008 1:17 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Rick's in, the rest share

Is Colby really “banging on the door.” He’s hitting poorly right now…and I think Barton has the bat and leg speed to play well on a semi-regular basis as well. I hate to say this, but Colby probably needs to stay where he is until the call-up date, if then. Rick’s bat, legs and gun make him a full time starter. But I’d like to see the other four (Shu, Dunc, Lud, and Brian) get roughly the same playing time as the season goes on… I was at the 7-4 loss in SF, and Lud looked real slow in the outfield, reminding me of the terrible defensive outfield stats we had last year—all those fly balls falling in and too many runs scored against us. I love Lud’s bat, but he has to regress near his mean… Brian can hit and he seems to get to those fly balls quicker than Shu, Dunc, or Lud… I’m thinking he deserves something of a shot, esp against lefties…

by SLOKev6 on May 7, 2008 1:33 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

He might have "looked" slow

but Ludwick is fairly widely viewed as an above average outfielder. He’s viewed as being athletic enough to handle center in the majors so he can certainly be a plus defensive presence at the corners.

My term “banging on the door” didnt imply he’s on fire, or that he had to be brought up in the next few weeks. Just means that he WILL be in the bigs probably by the end of the season, and that means we need to thin our current major league OF group.

And finally….WHY should all four of the OFs (the 4 not named Ankiel) blindly be getting equal at bats? Duncan has gone about 4+ months not hitting for any power. He also has a pathetic 6 RBIs for the season. Six! Duncan with no power = fairly worthless. Why should he continue to get equal at bats?? You play the players that are producing.

As i said before, Ludwick, Shu and Ankiel have solidified through their in game performance this year that they “should” be our starting OF and the platoons should be dropped. LaRussa!!!! Play the best players please!

by gossard56 on May 7, 2008 1:59 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

slow?

Ludwick came up as a CF prospect and before his leg injuries was considered one of the better CF prospects in the minors. He is an above average corner outfielder and is posting an OPS above 1.000 right now. Why wouldn’t you keep riding that horse until it broke? Even if he regresses a bit, a +.850 OPS with above average defense would be better than all the other options that we have including Duncan and Barton.

If Barton needs more playing time, then it has to come out of Schu’s AB’s. They are the same type of player and would take turns leading off. In fact, that would be a nice platoon if Schumaker starts to struggle. Both have good speed and seem to get on base.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on May 7, 2008 2:47 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Let me throw out a few stats

Ludwick is 8 at bats short of showing up in the official MLB leaders stats, but if you lowered the minimum this is where he would fall:

4th in slugging
5th in OPS
9th in on base %
9th in doubles

This is in the entire major leagues!

You can’t even argue that TLR’s platooning has put him in the best position to suceed by only having him face lefties. The guy hits righties even better then lefties!!! Therefore, it really means his numbers could be even more impressive if he played against more righties.

I’ve also said this in the past…....LaRussa is the ONLY manager in all of baseball that wouldn’t be playing Ludwick everyday. His stats are too far off the charts to ignore and LaRussa is the only manager who could out smart himself and continue to play Duncan because thats what the “platoon book” says to do.

by gossard56 on May 7, 2008 2:15 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

my bad

his on base % is actually around 25th in the league. the others are correct.

by gossard56 on May 7, 2008 2:17 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

I hear ya

and maybe I’m too committed to past performance, but over time I have to think that Dunc’s bat will improve (tho I doubt his fielding will) and that Lud’s hitting will regress… I really hope I’m wrong about Ludwick… and I hope your point about his injuries skewing his numbers is right, and I agree that TLR likes platooning too much… It’s just that such a permanent surge is unlikely over the course of a season… Also, Barton is also a good hitter (.819 OPS w/o getting much of a look) and given the time he may be a better fielder, I think, than all but Ankiel… I WILL agree that it’s best to play the hottest guy…

by SLOKev6 on May 7, 2008 2:25 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

As Mooooch.....

...as i like Duncan, I too have been calling for his trade, preferably to an American League club. He would fit in very nicely in Baltimoore or Moo York (with his brother), among udder places. And we cud get some pitching in return. Ludwick fits in perfectly as a starter in the outfield right now, with Barton as 4th and Rasmus cowming up soon. He’s young and talented enough to begin a new career elsewhere. Sometimes a team trades away malcontents to better the club; sometimes they trade away damaged goods; sometimes they trade away players who need a new begining elsewhere. And sometimes you just have too much of a good thing, and need to trade away surplus to better your club in udder areas. Happily, the Cards are in the latter situation now. I honestly don’t think he’s going to increase his value all that much right now – he cud go and be better than both Aubrey Huff and Kevin Millar right now with the Oriels. He cud start at first for the hated Yankees right now. Let’s see what trades we can get.

:=8)

"We're against society, authority, and anything else that ends in y"
- Johnny Rotten

by The MooCow on May 7, 2008 2:31 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Let's not lose ourselves over one good month.

Ludwick is a decent reserve: a .270/.330/.450 type guy who doesn’t drag the team down with his glove. I still expect Rasmus to be up here one he and Schumacher cool off.

by JI on May 7, 2008 2:46 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

How do you know that?

What evidence do you base that off of? His numbers from last year, which was his first extensive time in the majors?

I’m not losing myself over one good month, but how can you dismiss his one good month based on three league average months from last year? That hardly seems fair…

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on May 7, 2008 2:49 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Well to begin with, the three months are the larger sample size.

If you disregard the larger sample size in favor of the smaller one, you are practicing bad science.

There’s also his entire minor league track record
Plus,he’s going to be 30 in July, and it would be quite unique for his skills to take that type huge leap forward.

I like what the Cards are doing now, by rotating Skip, Dunc, and Ludwick LaRussa is keeping them from getting overexposed. Ludwick could probably play everyday on a bad team, but on a team that plans on winning he’s best cast as a reserve.

by JI on May 7, 2008 2:58 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

See I agree

I don’t know how good Schu, Dunc, Lud, or Barton really are but I would say the platoon is getting the most out of them so I like it. Who knows any of them playing every day may just expose them.

I would say Dunc is just having trouble recovering from surgery. Otherwise he seemed to do well in his platoon role the past couple years.

TLR may be brining out the best in the outfield

by ICbirdfan on May 7, 2008 3:06 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

If I understnad this arguement correctly

...most people would agree that last year’s .267/.339/.479 is more or less Ludwick’s true ability line (though the sooner people learn that reverse splits are bogus 99.99% of the time the better, but that’s another discussion), maybe the power #s are a bit over his head, maybe the average/on-base is a bit low—but it’s still a reasonable assessment.

Now that Ludwick has gotten off to a great start people want him to get an everyday job, not because he’s the +/- .800 OPS guy with decent defense, but because they think he’s significantly better than he was last year. If you believe this, you’re basically arguing that Ryan Ludwick is one of the very best players in the Majors because the number of hitters that can give you a .300/.360/.540 line plus good defense are scarce.

by JI on May 7, 2008 3:21 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

luddy was awful in his first 2-3 weeks

He was hacking at everything, pressing to hit a home run on every swing, with predictable results. As he settled in, he became better and better. he took two walks total last year in the months of may-June, 7 in July, and then 17 in aug-sep.

From June 1st to the end of the season, he put up an .874 OPS. From July 1st, .900, .880 in Aug and .910 in september.

This year has just been a continuation of what he was doing from June on last year, with better performance against lefties.

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on May 7, 2008 4:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

If you take away all the bad, he was good!

You have to evaluate all the available data, not cherry pick the rosiest scenario.

by JI on May 7, 2008 4:53 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

well...

... that’s true, but you also have to look for trends, and examine extenuating circumstances. the trend is for Ludwick to have improved starting about June 1st of last year. the extenuating circumstances which might explain worse performance that include: nervousness, unpreparedness from just being called up, lack of comfort with coaches, lack of exposure to MLB pitching, small sample in May, etc.

it’s probably true that Ludwick isn’t a .900 OPS player. but it’s almost certainly true that he’s an .800 OPS player (at minimum) with plus defense, fair speed, and a general ability to not make retarded mistakes at inopportune times. right now, Duncan can’t compete with that. and, in any case, Ludwick is OPSing over 1.000 right now. he’s gotta get playing time.

by kindred on May 7, 2008 6:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I agree

The debate really isn’t “who’s been the better player over the course of their major league career?” Its “who’s playing better right now?” With outfielders to spare, the Cards have the luxury of riding hot hands until they get cold. Ludwick is hot right now, and is playing much better than Duncan—that’s undisputed. So why let a guy who’s crushing the ball sit on the bench when his primary replacement is having a hard time getting it going offensively and defensively? Because that guy has had a better major league career? (Edmonds?)

by Ray Lankford on May 8, 2008 8:48 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Duncan isn't 37 and breaking down

any argument based on playing Ludwick more means two things

1) You expect Ludwick to continue to punish the ball at a rate comparable to what he is currently.
2) You expect Duncan to continue to suck

I disagree.

by JI on May 8, 2008 1:34 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

once again

thats not at all what we are saying and its not worth our time to explain it to you. you read what you want to read in our comments but not what we are saying.

i understand your a Duncan fan…i’ve been there and argued for Lankford years ago, but please look at what we are saying and stop twisting it around in your guys favor.

by gossard56 on May 8, 2008 3:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I'm not not really that big of a Duncan fan actually.

Why must people is assume to this is based on who I like better, and not what actaully makes sense for the team to do.

Logically I don’t know any other way to explain it. Could you help me out here?

-You expect Duncan to bounce back, and you expect Ludwick to regress to the mean, but you want to play Ludwick anyway?

-You expect Ludwick to suck, but you expect Duncan to suck worse?

-fill in the gap for me please

by JI on May 8, 2008 7:13 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

"i would say the platoon is getting the most out of them"

ummm…wow. its truely amazing that you could type that comment. the platoon that you are so excited about MAKES NO SENSE!!! You say it is bringing out the best in the outfield, but if you read anything i wrote you’d realize TLR is benching a guy (Ludwick) who is CRUSHING righties to play a guy (Duncan) who is flat out struggling in all aspects of the game right now.

How is this maximizing the outfield production???

by gossard56 on May 7, 2008 4:16 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Duncan's the better player

You don’t seriously think they’re going to bench a guy who has Duncan’s abilities and success based on one bad month do you?

by JI on May 7, 2008 4:54 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

his abilities and success??

he is terrible right now and Ludwick is playing much better is a very simple way of putting. so yes, i would bench Duncan to play one of the current hottest players in the league.

and you mention his abilities like he is a five tool monster or something. He does a couple good things….gets on base which he is still doing well, and hits for power…which he hasnt done for 4 months!!! past that he’s a bad outfielder.

Ludwick was much more prized prospect based on “abilities”.

by gossard56 on May 7, 2008 5:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

So you basically your saying

we can tell more from Ludwick’s last 83 at bats, then we can from Duncan’s last two seasons? It’s a wonder why the Yankees didn’t bench Paul O’Neill for Shane Spencer.

by JI on May 7, 2008 5:42 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

wait, what?

Duncan’s two seasons? in 2006 he got 280 ABs and OPSed .952. in 2007 he got 375 ABs and OPSed .834 with horrible defense and base-running.

you don’t think Ludwick could sustain an .834 OPS over 375 ABs with better defense? he almost did last year, putting up an .818 OPS in 303 ABs. you think Duncan’s twenty OPS points really makes him that much better of a player?

Luddy isn’t keeping this up forever, and Duncan probably won’t struggle forever either. but right now, there is no question who should be getting the playing time.

by kindred on May 7, 2008 6:16 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

i mean...

... Adam Kennedy is out-slugging Duncan so far this year. this won’t happen forever, but Duncan needs to get his shit straight before he can claim more ABs. this team is already short on power, and right now Ludwick is producing power numbers and Duncan isn’t.

if you’re asking me who i’d rather have on my team for the next 3 years, i’ll take Duncan. but if you’re asking me who should start tonight, the answer is clearly Luddy.

by kindred on May 7, 2008 6:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

no panic...

... but this team isn’t very good at scoring runs. aren’t they like 9th in the NL? they may be an average offensive team right, and if you expect the pitching to eventually regress (as i do) then you’re going to need more offense to stay in contention.

i’m not saying that they should give Duncan his outright release. all i’m saying is that there is nothing at all wrong with riding the hot hand. Duncan hasn’t looked good at any point this season, while Ludwick has been killing it since ST. right now he should get more ABs from the platoon.

by kindred on May 7, 2008 9:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Beliving Duncan's baseline is a .834 OPS is a faulty assumption

especially when his career numbers are closer to .900.

Duncan is doing ok, Ludwick isn’t gonna OPS 1.000, I say this early stick to guns: there’s need to panic, especially since there’s no way 80 at bats worth of performance is in any way significant.

by JI on May 7, 2008 6:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

for the record

over luddies last 352 PA’s: .930 OPS

Even I don’t believe that Luddy is that good, but he’s close, and I believe that Duncan is a .930 OPS caliber player, when healthy. heck, Duncan was at a .968 OPS after 20 April, though a lot of that was due to extreme platooning. The question is, is duncan healthy? And if so, what is wrong with him? If he isn’t healthy, or if there is something wrong with his approach, playing him right now only hurts his trade value.

Anyway, this is a silly argument; Ludwick and Duncan should both be starting, and Skip should be playing second base.

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on May 7, 2008 6:42 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

+1

to both starting. even over skip – if ludwick is as good as everyone here seems to say he is in the field, then it’s not a loss to have skip as a 4th OF.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on May 7, 2008 7:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

If he isn't healthy

then yes, Ludwick should play

by JI on May 8, 2008 1:34 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

had a typo

in my “number of PA’s” in the above comment. Should have been 382 PA’s, not 352.

Anyway, after last night, it’s now ”.938 OPS over his last 387 PA’s”.

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on May 8, 2008 2:06 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Look

Edmonds has great career numbers. Are you telling me that you’d rather start him in center over Ankiel because Ankiel doesn’t have the benefit of large number of career at bats to make solid predictions about his skill set?

by Ray Lankford on May 8, 2008 8:52 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Duncan

is not the better player!

by nybirdfan on May 8, 2008 8:51 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

"Duncan's abilities and success"

Geez - you make him sound like he’s a perennial all star or future hall of famer. He’s a good hitter who is struggling right now, and a butcher in the field. He HAS to be hitting to justify playing him - its the only plus aspect of his game. He gets the same treatment as other struggling non-all stars on a team with 5 above average outfielders get—he sits when he’s struggling.

by Ray Lankford on May 8, 2008 8:57 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

entire minor league track record????

you obviously didnt check out those stats. He has an OPS of .850 for his minor league career but its

2007 in Memphis: 108ABs, 8HRs 1000+ OPS pretty damn strong

2006 in Toledo: 508 ABs, 28 HRs .848 OPS

by gossard56 on May 7, 2008 4:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

after a certain age

minor league track record becomes irrelevant because it’s28 year old facing 21 year olds: Varsity v. the JV. A 28 year year old guy posting a .846 OPS at Toledo isn’t that impressive.

by JI on May 7, 2008 4:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

ok

now who’s cherrypicking their stats? You’ve done a complete 180 in the last 30 comments. First it was “look at his whole minor league track record”; now it’s “look at his whole minor league record EXCEPT the last couple of years which tend to disprove my point”.

I find such pandering hilarious and find it impossible to debate with someone who can’t give me a reason for not playing Ludwick every day that even that person doesn’t refute within 30 comments…

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on May 8, 2008 4:40 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Do you undestand how to evalute minor league statistics?

They’re only super useful when a judged against the age group they guy is playing. A fully develooped 28 year old mashing of unfinished 20 years olds is not that impressive. When a young player who mashes off his own peers, or hold his own peers that are older than him (say 17 year old in A ball) the it is impressive.

by JI on May 8, 2008 7:16 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

In other words...

I should judge Ludwick based on his whole body of work but I should only judge Duncan on what he’s done the past couple of seasons when he wasn’t hurt?

That’s a ridiculous assertion and you know it.

If you compare their minor league numbers, Ludwick looks like a whole lot better player all around, so even that doesn’t help your argument.

You can’t base the current playing time on past statistics—you simply should ride the hot hand as much as you possibly can.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on May 8, 2008 4:46 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

You have to evalutae players

-on who they played against (the quality of the league)
-their age, the development and quality of their opponents (a 20 year old who crushes AAA is impressive, a 28 year old who crushes AAA is not)
-where they played (park factors)
-their relative health

Generally the only samples that are worth anything are the last three years worth of data. Keep in mind, hitters tend to peak around the age of 27, but genreally will peak anywhere between 25-31. So, when you compare Chris Duncan’s last three years it is ridiculous because Duncan (age 27) will probably improve, where as Edmonds (ages 35-37) was on a steep decline in skills (and production).

You can’t base the current playing time on past statistics—you simply should ride the hot hand as much as you possibly can.

Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.

There is no evidence that there is any predictive power in the hot hand. Predictive power in a change in skills? I’m all for it, but therre no evidence that Ludwick has acquired any new skills. Right now Ludwick’s BABIP is .450 (a normal BABIP is about .300 for most players), there’s not any human being can maintain that. In other words, he’s hitting the ball well (all those homers) and he’s getting lucky. There’s no where for him to go but down.

by JI on May 8, 2008 7:26 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs