double dare ya
i had a perfect view of the play ----- 15th row in section 142, about 20 feet behind 3d base. albert got a tremendous jump, had the base stolen easily; he was 25 feet past the bag and under a full head of steam by the time the 2bman decided to throw it to first. reminded me vaguely of lawrence taylor on a blitz as he charged around the corner. i didn’t think they’d even have a play on him, but helton got rid of the ball incredibly fast (watch it on the replay; it’s like the ball bounces off him) and made a perfect throw, almost got him . . . . . maybe did get him. but the tie goes to the runner, right? what a thrill; i’m a pretty undemonstrative fan, but this brought me out of my seat hollering (only half-voluntarily) "come on albert!" i don’t think i’ve seen a prettier dash since that time back in 1975 when one of the casten boys (can’t exactly recall which of the brothers it was) bolted out of the shadows at half an hour past midnight to win an epic game of capture-the-flag. . . . . and i had just been thinking how the cards’ failure to get a couple runners home from third with less than two out was probably gonna cost them the game. so they go and get a runner home from second on a groundball.
vince coleman couldn’t have done it better himself.
albert’s run took our attention off another feeble late-inning at-bat from rick ankiel; from the 7th inning on this year he’s hitting .105 / .171 / .184 in 41 trips to the plate. it’s a tiny sample size and surely not predictive, but it’s definitely descriptive --- ankiel looks anxious up there in big situations. easy to say about rick given his history, but am i just imagining it?
ron villone puts on a nice show. he’s got a niche only a left-handed pitcher can have; you’ll never see a grizzled right-handed reliever brought into the game to fearlessly chuck his 87-mph fastball (or so it read on the stadium gun) over the plate. his cadence could only be a left-hander’s, too. he gets a whole lot accomplished between pitches: stalk around grass on 3d-base side of mound, glance at fielders, climb hill, tug at belt, glance at hitter, flick pitching arm, draw limbs into position, read sign, set, kick, throw. bet you didn’t know (i didn’t) that villone was a very high draft pick --- 14th overall in the 1992 draft. bet you also didn’t know that his career k/9 of 7.11 is among the top 100 in the history of baseball (minimum 1000 innings pitched); he ranks 74th. i didn’t know either, until just this very second. his confrontation with hawpe (2 on, 2 out in the 5th) was a triumph of stubbornness; away, away, away on every pitch. hawpe figured it out after the first couple of pitches (by which time he was down 0-2 in the count) and stopped swinging, worked the count to 3-2 and forced villone to come in with one of those crappy fastballs; villone put it on his hands and hawpe fouled it off. and then he went back to the outside corner with a slider, and hawpe couldn’t resist the bait and waved at it, struck out.
i was happy for mike parisi, to whom i’ve paid way too much attention as he has climbed the rungs of the system. he was fired up for that first inning, came right after the hitters and made it look easy; after he struck out matt herges to end the inning (his first big-league K) yadi handed him the ball on the way back to the dugout. in his second inning of work (the 7th) parisi just couldn’t get the fastball over; he was overthrowing it, leaving it up. the long flyout off the bat of the tiny shortstop, quintanilla, seemed to shake him (horrible route to that ball by ankiel, by the way; i think the altitude fooled him); after holliday and helton reached base the kid was looking over his shoulder, out to the bullpen, where (oh shit) nobody was warming up . . . . . the first pitch to atkins passed about a foot over his helmet, and it looked like the rookie was gonna buckle, but he steadied himself and got out of the jam. for some reason parisi completely abandoned his curveball that inning; he did throw one on the first pitch to atkins (the one that went over his head); given how sharp the hook looked in the 6th (he got all three outs on it), i don’t know why he would turn away from it vs the top of the order.
the cards made more than enough mistakes to lose the game, probably should have lost it. the sight of pujols barreling home will stay with me for a long time.
items:
- what a dreadful game for chris duncan; they can't hide him in coors field's gi-normous outfield. with left-handers going the next 3 days, he needs to take a seat.
- dreadful game for mark mulder too, rehabbing at memphis. the p-d's correspondent says mulder threw consistently between 85 and 87 mph; sounds like he is toasted.
- the cards are 9 games over for the first time since september 21 2006 . . . .
- BP's christina kahrl, in a cameo at the new york sun, says all those walks to pujols are helping the cardinal offense.
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192 comments
Comments
For someone who always says, "Im not one to complain about the Umps."
I sure do it a lot. Yadi was safe by a mile. And it cost us a run and an out with runs on first and third. Ok. That’s all im going to say about that.
Three left handers comming up next. Good chance we wont see Duncan in left field until we get to Milwaukee. He looks worse this year than last. It’s like he was talking fielding pratice with Soriano. After his rookie year he played winter ball in left. And he looked servicable in left field the first half. Only made two errors last year; didn’t take bad jumps on every ball. He still had is akward moments. But nothing like this year. Im afraid after not playing the last half of the season or much of spring training that he lost whatever he gained by playing winter ball. Sucks, but unless his bat picks up we can not have him out there in left field playing that bad. (To be fair, here I should mention the OF assist)
Oh and Piniaro. Don’t stare down the Pitching Coaches son when you are getting hammered. Showing up teammates on the field is never a wise idea. Yes he cost you two runs. But you could have easily have been hit for more without the errors.
by Evilfrog on
May 6, 2008 8:45 AM EDT
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Yeah that really pisses me off about Pineiro
You just don’t do that. I don’t care if Pineiro WAS pitching great and Duncan still made those two errors. This is a team that struggled with chemistry last year, but this year it seems great… why toy with something so important like that?
Should Dunc, Ankiel, and Shumaker all stared down Pineiro every time they caught a rocket last night?
Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)
PUT SKIP ON THE BALLOT!!!
by stltrav09 on
May 6, 2008 9:00 AM EDT
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That call on Molina
was the worst I have seen in sometime.
by ridgesee on
May 6, 2008 9:55 AM EDT
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about as bad -
as the missed called on Schumaker at the plate a couple days ago.
You get some … you lose some.
by Urban Pawnee on
May 6, 2008 10:06 AM EDT
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No, it was much worse than that, IMO.
This was compounded by Yadi not even being tagged. So the ump a) missed that Yadi’s foot crossed the plate well before any tag was made and b) missed that Yadi was not even tagged.
by saladdays on
May 6, 2008 10:36 AM EDT
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video
does anybody have video, or a still shot, of the play that yall are talking about? I was at work and didnt get to see the game.
C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!
by yer dog first on
May 6, 2008 12:48 PM EDT
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Use mlb.com
gameday from yesterday and click on the video tab on the right side of the screen
by ubeddie on
May 6, 2008 1:02 PM EDT
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Thanks
C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!
by yer dog first on
May 6, 2008 1:08 PM EDT
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Wow...
just wow…
With the ump standing right over top of that, there’s no way he shouldve missed that. Then again, he could be thinking, “the ball beat him, of course he’s out”.
booo anyway
C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!
by yer dog first on
May 6, 2008 1:12 PM EDT
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No.
Molina beat the ball, the catcher was in front of the plate, took the ball, reached around his back and tried to tag Molina behind him with half of Molina’s body across the plate and replay slomo shows that he really never got the ball on Molina. After that TV nevcer showed it anymore and the announcers shut up about it. To me it was pretty obivious to everyone in the park but the umpire. It was definitely a dinkinger call.
Also that umpire changed his balls and strikes calls about half way through the game. He started started off squeezing the strike zone and then turned liberal about the 6th inning, or that’s the way I saw it.
by ridgesee on
May 6, 2008 2:58 PM EDT
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they didn't shut up about it..
On the FSN broadcast. They showed it like 3 times. And came back to it the next inning.
by Evilfrog on
May 6, 2008 4:52 PM EDT
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Great game
Stirring game, got my blood up big-time - and I didn’t even start watching until Parisi’s second inning after attending a daughter’s band concert. The drama just in those last innings was something. Parisi and Flores worked so hard to get out of the 7th and 8th innings, the ridiculous missed call at the plate, Izturis’s great play on the first batter in the 9th, which was huge for Izzy. I was way pumped up after the game and for once thought I would watch the postgame show on FSN - and then the power went out here. Just poof! Gone. No storms in the area. The entire neighborhood went eerily dark.
All pumped up and nowhere to go. I sat on our deck for a while and then went to bed. But, man, what a game. I would have loved to have seen Pineiro’s at-bat.
by Youneverknow on
May 6, 2008 8:46 AM EDT
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Eric Ludwick!
So says Ms. Kahrl’s article! New nickname!
by sdrone on
May 6, 2008 9:02 AM EDT
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Brother
Eric Ludwick was a pitcher traded for Big Mac. Probably just got the brothers confused.
by StLHugo on
May 6, 2008 9:11 AM EDT
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trivia
that’s something i didn’t know. can anybody tell me what happened to that john edwards kid? i always liked him.
by mattybobo on
May 6, 2008 10:58 AM EDT
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Hey that's right
what has happened to John Edwards?
by ridgesee on
May 6, 2008 11:05 AM EDT
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This Jon Edwards?
http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=31585
From what I can tell he is still in extended spring training.
by StLHugo on
May 6, 2008 11:15 AM EDT
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He's there hiding
from Hillary and Barack. They just won’t leave him alone. Constantly hounding him about who he will endorse. Give the guy a break, he’s just trying to get his swing together.
"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin
by That's a Winner on
May 6, 2008 11:41 AM EDT
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Fact checking is thing of the past. . .
in the wiki age. Sigh! If you say something long and loud and often enough, it’s true.
by gocards62 on
May 6, 2008 11:38 AM EDT
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Albert's play
should be shown to every MVP voter. He should have 3 or 4 by now.
Duncan’s got to sit in favor of Ludwick. Two years ago when he had that great half season and Reyes had the great game in the World Series they were hot commodities who could have been traded for pieces that would have helped. Now, neither is worth much, especially the way he’s hitting. I hope he has a resurgence before the trade deadline and Mo can get something useful for him, but his offense has now been in eclipse since last year’s All-Star break. And as Evilfrog says, his defense looks like it’s getting worse, not better.
by vinniefromjersey on
May 6, 2008 9:25 AM EDT
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I reminded me...
... of a run scored by Anhaim’s Vlad Guerrero from 2nd on a bunt. This one was even better, due to Albert’s inferior speed.
GO CARDS!!!
by SuperSeve on
May 6, 2008 9:38 AM EDT
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In fairness to Ank and Dunc
conditions weren’t good for either of them to succeed. Fuentes is a beast against left-handed hitters, and the outfield in Denver is hard to play. What were conditions like on the two errors?
by StanTheManFan on
May 6, 2008 9:34 AM EDT
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Both were his fault completely
One, was a soft fly ball that he completely mis played, he was there, it dropped in front of him (not an issue that he missed it) but after the bounce it hit off his glove and rolled away. The next was a ground ball through his legs. Looked like a circus clown out there.
by StLHugo on
May 6, 2008 9:46 AM EDT
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and a third..
I thought the earlier line drive out to left-center was catchable too (might have been a tough play.. but it didn’t seem that far over his head) if he would have taken a decent route to the ball.
by Birds on the Matt on
May 6, 2008 10:42 AM EDT
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add some botched ones Sunday night
I don’t get to watch many Cards game on tv because they’re never on tv in my area, thank you Mr. Selig. Finally getting to see some of the games against the cubbies and especially watching Sunday nights game was an eye opener. You’d think Dunc could handle things better in his own left field. I saw one ball hit into the corner that he just wasn’t willing to stop, instead he chased it around the left field corner for a bit and the cubs got extra bases out of it. Not a big deal since the Cards won the game, but Dunc is going to cost us runs if he can’t learn to play the outfield.
Maybe we should let him relieve Albert at 1st once in a while to boost his trading power.
by sbentley on
May 6, 2008 11:25 AM EDT
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Interleague Play
I think it would be best to keep the status quo until after interleague play. I think we could really use Dunc at DH. And like you were saying, to hopefully showcase his bat to AL teams.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
by totalloser on
May 6, 2008 2:53 PM EDT
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Duncan had a bad inning, move on
The first error was a sliced ball that took a super ball hop over his shoulder.
The second was when he was charging the ball for a play at home and he missed it; Edmonds generally had two of those a year.
Duncan had a bad inning, but this team is going to need him to hit if they want to do anything.
Or should the Cubs dump Soriano after his misplays on Friday too?
Dave
by SydneyDave on
May 6, 2008 11:34 AM EDT
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The Rockies right fielder
Had some issues too.
by Evilfrog on
May 6, 2008 12:03 PM EDT
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I don't think the Cards should dump him
but I think you have to admit that we have 4 other very capable outfielders who aren’t butchers in the field and whose offensive production isn’t that much of a drop off from Duncan. Therefore, I disagree that the Cards need Duncan to hit if they want to do anything.
by Ray Lankford on
May 6, 2008 1:40 PM EDT
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What do you consider "not much of a dropoff"?
Against RHP, Duncan’s got a career 935 OPS. That’s one of the best numbers in MLB.
Ankiel is 750; Ludwick is 834, Schu is a 795, and Barton is 912 in 18 PAs.
Among the guys other than Barton, Duncan’s got 100 points of OPS against RHP. He’s the second best hitter against RHP on the team. Plus, Duncan is younger than the three of those guys, having turned 27 yesterday on a birthday he’d like to forget.
He’s in a funk now, which he has shown to have over the last couple of years. He’ll get the next three days off, and hopefully get his swing back. Because if he hits like his career numbers, the Cards can certainly use him.
Dave
by SydneyDave on
May 6, 2008 2:51 PM EDT
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His career numbers
are still too small of a sample size to claim that he may revert back to them.
I certainly hope that he can and does but it is no certainty. And while he continues to struggle at the plate, he is costing the Cardinals runs in the OF.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
May 6, 2008 2:53 PM EDT
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small sample size
major league numbers only:
duncan career vs. RHP = 692 PA
ludwick career vs. RHP = 470 PA
schumaker career vs. RHP = 333 PA
ankiel career vs. RHP = 309 PA
barton career vs. RHP = 18 PA
if the small-sample-size argument applies to duncan, it applies to the other four as well. and the one of those four most likely to “regress to the career mean” in the good direction is ankiel, who’s probably going to play vs. RHPs anyway. of all our OF’s, duncan has proven both in quality and quantity that he can hit RHP far better than the rest of the group, and he needs to play against them as much as possible.
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on
May 6, 2008 3:15 PM EDT
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Huh?
No one was arguing that Duncan’s sample size was smaller than the other OF we have.
The argument is that he is pretty awful right now on all sides of the ball and probably should get some time off to let others get their chance to ‘regress to the career mean’.
You can’t have a staff of ‘pitch to contact’ starters and hope to succeed with a LF that has the ball rolling through his legs are bouncing over his head at the wall 4 or 5 times a week.
by Hardcore Legend on
May 6, 2008 3:20 PM EDT
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You are making it seem like this happens every game
He had a rough night, and I saw a lot of OF mis play balls last night ie… not taking the best route to balls.
Dunc is not going to win a gold glove but he is not the worst in the league either. I think the Cards need him to have a good year.
I think some people are extra hard on him becaue his dad is a coach, and not all people are fond of his dad. The Cards havea lot of OF and I think Tony is using them well.
by ICbirdfan on
May 6, 2008 3:31 PM EDT
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Actually...
...what happens “every game” is Duncan makes it look like an adventure out there. While the 2008 results, prior to last night, were certainly acceptable, last night he was exposed as the below average outfielder he has proven to be. There have also been a plethora of plays that were not ruled errors that an average or above average fielder (such as possibly Ludwick) might have been able to make routinely.
Duncan is not a good outfielder. He’s a DH/1B who is being forced to “learn on the fly” because we have the best player in baseball at 1B already and we are in the NL.
If Duncan’s bat were irreplaceable, you could possibly stomach his defensive weaknesses. But when you have other OFers on your 25 man roster with better defense and similar or better offensive production, you don’t have to keep trotting Duncan out there while waiting for his bat to come around and “hoping his hard work and good intentions in the OF” improve his defense.
Just put Ludwick in left routinely until Duncan starts mashing RHers again more than Luddy does. IMHO, our regular OF should include Ankiel (CF), Schumaker (RF) and Ludwick (LF) against righties and Ankiel (CF), Ludwick (RF) and Barton (LF) against lefties. Meanwhile, keep looking for a team that needs a lefty DH/1B and work a trade. The situation will only get worse once Rasmus is ready for his callup.
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on
May 6, 2008 3:55 PM EDT
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tht says
that duncan has caught 34 of 36 balls hit in his “zone”, and 9 balls “out of zone”, which is right up there with Eric Byrnes and Fred Lewis for “best in the league”. Compare that to Pat Burrell, who has made just 34 of 42, or carlos lee who has made 34 of 43, or adam dunn (42 of 49). Soriano? 21 of 28. Willingham? 33 of 40. Diaz? 40 of 47. Holliday? 52 of 56.
Is there a better, free fielding metric than RZR? Because based on RZR, Duncan has been much better than a “league average LF” this year. He’s “looked” worse than he has been, sure, but he isn’t costing us runs the way the folks mentioned above are.
And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...
by SleepyCA on
May 6, 2008 4:20 PM EDT
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In the last 4 games
he has dropped a flyball, failed to dig a ball out of the corner, had a ball go through his legs, had a ball roll up his arm and over his head and this doesn’t take into account the many ‘catches’ he has had seemingly falling down or tripping over his own feet on routine plays.
I have to also wonder what RZR considers as ‘the zone’ for a LF. Duncan plays so deep that alot of balls drop in front of him that seem that another, more agile LF should be able to come up with on the fly.
This all would be a moot point if Duncan were hitting. He isn’t. He should give way to another of our 4 OF’ers and try to find his swing again pinch-hitting off the bench.
by Hardcore Legend on
May 6, 2008 4:25 PM EDT
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those balls that "drop in front of him"
Should be considered “in the zone”. Either that, or “out of zone”. Either way, they are accounted for, and Duncan is doing fine by both unless our pitchers cause hitters to hit an inordinate number of shallow fly balls- but given that Schumaker in LF doesn’t have as high of an OOZ catches/BIZ catches ratio, I doubt that is the case.
And since someone else mentioned that “failed to dig the ball out of the corner”, that ball was a double no matter what and the runner got a double on it. It’s not fair to count that against him because it didn’t cost us anything, unless you really believe Duncan was going to throw the runner out at second.
Again, I’m not arguing that he doesn’t “look” bad out there- but he’s getting the job done.
And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...
by SleepyCA on
May 6, 2008 4:35 PM EDT
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starting
you say that like dunc’s on a pace to start 162 games, which he’s not. he’s only started 20 of the team’s 33 games, and he’s only played the entire game in 12 of those 20. i wouldn’t exactly call him an “everyday” player – certainly not to the point where his poor defense leaves the team exposed every day..
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on
May 6, 2008 4:44 PM EDT
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Does that take into account the amount of time
he missed due to injury?
by Hardcore Legend on
May 6, 2008 5:23 PM EDT
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good point
i did not. wasn’t that something like 5-6 games at the beginning of the season?
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on
May 6, 2008 5:25 PM EDT
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He started Opening Day
then we faced the lefties and Barton was in LF. Here are the gamelogs from baseball reference.
by ubeddie on
May 6, 2008 5:33 PM EDT
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we had the same idea
i quoted RZR further down the tabs. but i don’t know of any other metrics that are free. what i do know, though, is that dunc’s two errors last night were his first of the season. and for what it’s worth, his range factor is far above league average for his position so far.
ugly as it may seem, chris is holding his own out there right now.
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on
May 6, 2008 4:27 PM EDT
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OF errors are rare
Soriano didn’t get an error on Molina’s groundrule double last weekend but any competent LF should make that catch.
The general (loose) rule is that if your glove doesn’t touch it, it’s not an error in the OF.
by Hardcore Legend on
May 6, 2008 4:31 PM EDT
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that "non-error"
is likely one of the 7 balls that RZR says Soriano should have caught.
And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...
by SleepyCA on
May 6, 2008 4:36 PM EDT
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i dunno
about the groundrule double (although i’m not remembering it terribly clearly), but certainly the other non-catch in that same inning that brought in the third run would’ve fallen within his “zone”.
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on
May 6, 2008 4:46 PM EDT
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RZR and Chris Duncan
Up until last night, RZR showed Chris Duncan tied for 1st as the best LF in MLB. Think that was accurate? I don’t.
Yes, he had done well until last night’s game. But the numerous “circus catches” were indicative that he was playing over his head. In my opinion, he has started to “regress to the mean” (everybody has to drink!) defensively. I fully expect as the season wears on that he will again be repeatedly exposed as a sub-par LFer. No historical data or personal observations have given me any reason to suspect that Chris Duncan has in fact become the new Eric Byrnes in LF for 2008.
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on
May 6, 2008 4:57 PM EDT
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Right
And the fact that he makes the easy catches look hard makes me wonder how long he can keep that up. On the one hand, as long as he’s making the plays then that’s all that matters. On the other hand, a defender with undisputedly bad fundamentals is tempting fate each time he takes a bannana route to a ball. Sooner or later the ball will fly over your head . . . or bounce over your head . . . or roll between your legs. Besides, last night’s shallow fly ball that bounced over his head should have been caught. Whether its in his “zone” or not, I don’t know, but it seems like if you pull up on a ball so short that it bounces over your head, you should have kept digging and made the catch, IMO.
by Ray Lankford on
May 6, 2008 5:06 PM EDT
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you said “his career numbers are still too small of a sample size to claim that he may revert back to them.” i’m just pointing out that his level of production is far more established than the others. yeah, he’s off to a somewhat rough start this year (if you could call a .400+ OBP “rough”), but the power production is likely to get better. as opposed to say, ludwick, who is more likely to regress downward than maintain his current level (not that he can’t, just saying what is probable). either way, duncan is better than what he’s shown this season. and against RHP, his numbers are better than any of the other OF.
my point: if you can’t play duncan against RHP, when can you play him? and if you can’t play him, his value will not get any higher for potential trade suitors (see: reyes, anthony).
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on
May 6, 2008 3:53 PM EDT
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forgive me
i haven’t checked the stats in a couple of days, his OBP has dropped to .385. still, the point remains. i’d love to see that OBP consistently in the 2-hole, like in 2006.
i get the impression that dunc is the type of guy who benefits from regular PT (though his splits don’t show a huge disparity), so i’d hate to see him get worse through riding the pine. i hate to say it, but if going to play any less than he currently is, he should be in memphis working on his defense and getting more ABs, a la reyes.
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on
May 6, 2008 3:57 PM EDT
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"far better than the rest of the group"
But currently Duncan is NOT far better than the rest of the group this year. He’s hitting .290/.423/.435 vs RH pitching for an OPS of .858. Ludwick’s numbers against righties are .362/.412/.660 for an OPS of 1.072) in roughly the same number of ABs (62 vs 47). (TONY: Please note that Luddy’s OPS is 110 points higher against RIGHT handed pitchers this year…EXACTLY like his career reverse splits show!)
That’s a 214 point OPS difference. If you compare Luddy and Lil Dunc against LH, it’s obscene.
So while I don’t agree with anyone who says we should “dump Duncan,” I most certainly do agree with the position to “sit Duncan” when he’s struggling at the plate (as he is now), especially since 1) he is also a defensive liability in the field (whereas Ludwick is good defensively), and 2) we currently have a better option than Duncan in Ludwick…against both RH and LH pitchers.
I agree that Duncan’s offensive ceiling may be higher than “Eric” Ludwick, but it would appear that his floor is also much, much lower…especially when you factor in the number of runs he could end up costing us in the outfield.
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on
May 6, 2008 3:40 PM EDT
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Exactly
Duncan looks like a clown in the outfield and, although his offense is good, its nothing that can’t be closely replicated (see Ludwick) by someone who isn’t a defensive liability.
Thank you for making my original point with a much better, factually supported post.
by Ray Lankford on
May 6, 2008 4:05 PM EDT
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defense
according to THT’s RZR, duncan has substantially improved in the field in 2008 – a .944 rating so far, as opposed to .851 in ‘06 and .781 in ‘07. ludwick, by comparison, posted a .905 RZR in LF in ‘07 (and is carrying an .857 rating in RF so far in ‘08).
if you’re gonna argue for ludwick based on the small offensive sample size for this year, you’ve got to accept that despite the visual impressions, duncan has been acceptable in the field so far this year.
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on
May 6, 2008 4:13 PM EDT
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Yes and No
I’m fine with using small sample sizes for the current year when they tend to fall in line with the larger/career data. When the smaller/current samples are waaaay outside the deviation of the larger data, however, I tend to discount them as outliers.
For example, Ludwick has always had good offensive numbers against RH. This year he has slightly better numbers against RH. That seems within reason, and he’s likely to slide back toward his career numbers. But currently he is outperforming. Perhaps Luddy is “seeing the ball well” this year, as they say.
Similarly, Duncan has always had better offensive numbers against RH than Luddy. But this year, his power is way down. Some say he has adjusted his swing to reduce strikeouts, but whatever the cause, he is not producing as he has in the past. Do I think his offense will remain this low all year? Nope. But atm, Ludwick is outproducing him. Substantially.
On the defensive side, Ludwick has always been a fairly “average” defender. In his limited career so far, Duncan has been a below average defender. Those stats are further reinforced by what I see (I watch every game). So I think Luddy will continue to be an average defender, and despite Duncan’s good start, I fully expect him to quickly drop below average as more balls fly his way. After all, his RZR was 1.000 before yesterday. Think that was accurate? I sure don’t.
So to me, with everything taken in context, Ludwick clearly represents the better option to play LF over Duncan until Duncan shows that his power has returned.
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on
May 6, 2008 4:47 PM EDT
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"until Duncan shows that his power has returned"
So what would he have to “show” you for you to know that his power has returned? Would one great game be enough? What about two?
What I’m getting at is that he will have to play in order to get back in the groove. How often should he play? When should he play? These are all difficult questions, and I for one, trust TLR to manage these things. (Now as to when pitchers should be removed from the game… there I don’t trust him!)
"...but If I can do some damage and help my team win, I'm going to stay in there" -Albert
by BigMOman on
May 6, 2008 4:52 PM EDT
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I'm not Tony LaRussa...
...but I’ve played him on TV thanks to my video game system.
What would I do? I would continue to give him frequent pinch hitting appearances against RHers, and the occassional spot start. Meanwhile, have him work on his swing and do the usual workouts/regimens that major leaguers do when they are trying to break out of an offensive funk.
In the meantime, I would continue to start Ludwick over Duncan as long as Luddy was performing and Duncan was not.
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on
May 6, 2008 5:01 PM EDT
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small sample sizes are awesome
for instance, if duncan hit a home run in his next PA, his OPS would jump 55 points. Power hitters’ OPS always bounces around early in the season.
At this point, it would take more than a couple of good games to lift Duncan back to his previous lofty numbers, but it’s well within reach.
And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...
by SleepyCA on
May 6, 2008 5:04 PM EDT
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Duncan has been scalding balls
Remember the D Lee catch? There have been other instances of him scalding the ball.
My god people give it a rest it’s one bad defensive game and Dunc has been pretty good during his short career.
by ICbirdfan on
May 6, 2008 5:46 PM EDT
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scalding balls
sounds painful.
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on
May 6, 2008 6:00 PM EDT
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dude
you’re contradicting yourself.
duncan’s offensive numbers this year are far more in line with his career so far this season than ludwick’s – ludwick is playing way over his head and while that’s not a bad thing, we can’t expect it to last. duncan has the better career offensive numbers overall – to the tune of about 75-80 points of OPS. on the other side of the coin, ludwick has proven to be the better defender over the course of his career, but duncan has had a very good start to the season by his standards.
if ludwick’s great offensive season so far is worthy of consideration in comparison to duncan’s career, then duncan’s solid defensive season so far has to be taken into consideration in comparison to ludwick’s career. you can’t have it both ways.
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on
May 6, 2008 4:58 PM EDT
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I don't think I am.
I’m not “having it both ways.” I’m simply taking both the short term and long term data in context. I thought I made that clear.
I am heavily discounting Duncan’s above average defense for 2008 because it is completely out of character. I am also factoring in the career numbers offensively, with Luddy and Duncan both doing well against RH pitchers historically. And since Ludwick is significantly outperforming Duncan atm, especially in light of the smaller gap career-wise and Luddy’s historically good history of hitting both RH and LH pitchers, it makes the choice pretty obvious.
I’m not weighting Duncan’s slow offensive start more than Ludwick’s hot offensive start, nor am I ignoring Duncan’s superior career hitting against RH. I’m simply using the “hot hand” to help make the final decision. If Duncan’s bat shows signs of pop again and Ludwick’s offensive numbers are in decline, and the combination of their offense and defense factors makes Duncan the superior play, then I would argue to start Duncan. But that’s simply not the case atm.
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on
May 6, 2008 5:11 PM EDT
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hot hand
ludwick hit all 4 of his HR in a 5-game stretch back in mid-april. since then (the game of 4/18), he is hitting .237/.341/.368 in 44 PA. in the same stretch, dunc is hitting .220/.360/.317 in 41 PA. not a huge difference
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on
May 6, 2008 5:18 PM EDT
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That's an apt point
But that includes all ABs, even against lefties. If you filter just for RH pitchers, the OPS numbers are…hmm, still really close. And after looking more closely, it appears that Duncan has actually hit MORE line drives this year than before. Odd. Is his decreased slugging just bad luck?
I don’t really like the idea of conveniently “ignoring” Luddy’s 2 weeks of extreme offense, but it does reflect that Luddy has cooled off somewhat from his torrid start. But even if they’re now seen as “even” offensively, I’d still prefer Ludwick starting for his better defense.
But you’ve succeeded in getting me to soften my stance. I just hope that when Tony does start Dunc, he generates more offense than he costs us in the field. He woulda needed a 3-run HR last night to make up for the debacles in left!
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on
May 6, 2008 7:35 PM EDT
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fair enough
last night, yes, but most nights, it doesn’t require that much.
as i said right below in the thread of all threads, i don’t see duncan as an everyday starter. i only say that he should play against most RHP, which he has been so far – and that doesn’t need to change despite his slow start offensively.
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on
May 7, 2008 8:38 AM EDT
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and for the record
i’m not advocating that duncan play more, or ludwick play less. i’m advocating that things stay about what they are right now.
innings in LF (and OF total):
duncan: 155 (155)
skip: 83 (245)
barton: 51 (60)
ludwick: 10 (172)
ankiel: 0 (261)
and for reference, PA for all of them vs RHP (and overall)
duncan: 78 (91)
skip: 100 (133)
barton: 18 (48)
ludwick: 51 (89)
ankiel: 99 (131)
seems like most of ludwick’s PT has come at the expense of duncan already, since there seems to be quite a few games where ludwick plays RF while skip (or barton) shifts over to LF. if anything, i’d like to see ludwick play a little more at the expense of ankiel, but not duncan.
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on
May 6, 2008 5:11 PM EDT
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PT
per hardcore legend’s comment above, i did not take into account the ~6 games dunc missed at the beginning of the season due to injury. that should be noted.
with that in mind, perhaps dunc should sit a little more in favor of ludwick… but i don’t believe that change should be more than one game every two weeks or so.
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on
May 6, 2008 5:28 PM EDT
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With apologies to Enos Slaughter...
... that was one mad dash!
by birdjam on
May 6, 2008 9:41 AM EDT
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I saw the Ankiel PA differently
First of all, unlike many, I’m not magnetically attached to the fact that Ankiel has been relatively successful vs. lefties so far in his young career. Too few PA’s to attach any significance to it.
Fuentes, who is a tough lefty, owned Ankiel on the first two pitches. I really thought he had no prayer of even getting his bat on the ball. He looked THAT BAD on the first 2 pitches. Based on his relative inexperience and how bad he looked on the first 2 pitches, I was impressed that he was able to get his bat on the ball and hit a weak grounder to 2nd. I didn’t think he had even a chance at that and the fact that he did put his bat on the ball allowed Pujols to score. Otherwise, it’s 2 outs, runner on 3rd and Glaus up.
Also, Helton made a helluva play there. I’m pretty sure he pulled his foot off first to make the throw home, as he should have but the ump called the out anyway. That 2nd baseman has to recognize the situation and concede the play at first if he has to.
by chuckb on
May 6, 2008 9:47 AM EDT
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no
a K would’ve left pujols standing on second base. and glaus was previously removed from the game in favor of brendan ryan. so ryan would’ve been up with 2 outs, and a runner on second. either way, a bad situation, but 99% of the credit goes to pujols – he could’ve just as easily pulled up at 3rd base on that play. i can’t think of any other top MLB sluggers who would’ve scored on that play.
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on
May 6, 2008 10:05 AM EDT
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How would he have been stuck on 2nd?
he was stealing 3rd at the time.
And, you’re right, I forgot it would’ve been Ryan instead of Glaus. All the more reason it was important that Ankiel put his bat on the ball.
by chuckb on
May 6, 2008 10:09 AM EDT
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ahhh
being on the east coast prevents me from staying up to watch the end of games west of st. louis – i wasn’t aware albert was running on the play. i had gathered he had merely gotten a good break and scored on a slow roller. my bad.
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on
May 6, 2008 10:19 AM EDT
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He was basically at third before the ball was hit
At least that is how I remember it, he had rounded third already when the 2B got the ball. Helton just made a hell of a throw.
by StLHugo on
May 6, 2008 10:30 AM EDT
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Yeah he slowed down a bit to see where the ball was, then he turned it on.
I thought the pause may have cost him the chance of being safe, but at the same time maybe it helped because the 2B did not think he was going.
by ICbirdfan on
May 6, 2008 10:32 AM EDT
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Ankiel RBI?
Does Rick get an rbi since he put the ball in play on Albert’s 9th inning dash? Can anyone imagine what Albert’s stats would be if he had just average speed?
by kbe on
May 6, 2008 9:49 AM EDT
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his power stats would suck
You can’t have that much power and still have speed. think older Bonds. Plus, I’d rather have a guy with Pujols speed and his baserunning smarts than average speed.
"...but If I can do some damage and help my team win, I'm going to stay in there" -Albert
by BigMOman on
May 6, 2008 10:49 AM EDT
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hanley ramirez begs to differ ;)
And chase utley, and david wright, etc.
And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...
by SleepyCA on
May 6, 2008 1:55 PM EDT
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None of them have as much power as Puj #1
With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch
by joker24 on
May 6, 2008 2:06 PM EDT
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Darryl Strawberry? Eric Davis? Bo Jackson? Roberto Clemente? Willy Mays?
These are some pretty fast guys that seemed to have a bit of pop in their bat.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
by Eckstreem on
May 6, 2008 3:04 PM EDT
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Not nearly as much pop as Pujols
Through the same point in their careers only one of them came close on SLG, AVG, ISO, or OBP, and that was Willie Mays, one of the greatest players in baseball history. And even Willie Mays had lower AVG, BB% and OBP than Pujols at the same point in their careers.
If anything, you’ve proven my point. I don’t think there is/was/could-ever-be a baseball player that can hit at the same level as Albert and be fast (though Mays was close). At some point you reach the upper limit of human capabilities; I think Albert has reached that.
"...but If I can do some damage and help my team win, I'm going to stay in there" -Albert
by BigMOman on
May 6, 2008 4:26 PM EDT
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Let's not forget ARod
Alex gives up alot in the way of average but it’s hard to discount his power and speed.
by Hardcore Legend on
May 6, 2008 4:30 PM EDT
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good name
but AVG is a pretty important part of hitting. Also, his BB% is significantly lower, and K% significantly higher. I’ll take these challenges all day! :-)
I just love that he plays for our team.
"...but If I can do some damage and help my team win, I'm going to stay in there" -Albert
by BigMOman on
May 6, 2008 4:34 PM EDT
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and before anyone brings him up...
Barry Bonds would be a legitimate comparison in terms of hitting, and he had more speed.
But he was jerk, so he doesn’t count. ;-)
"...but If I can do some damage and help my team win, I'm going to stay in there" -Albert
by BigMOman on
May 6, 2008 4:43 PM EDT
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87 is the magic number?
you mention villone’s 87 mph fastball… and then you mention mulder’s 87 mph fastball.
mulder’s got a slight platoon advantage via lefties, maybe he could carve out a future as a lefty reliever. unfortunately, it seems like he would need to go to another organization to do so, as flores and villone are pitching well.
question – and i know this has been asked before but i just would like to clarify – what happens when mulder’s rehab assignment is up? i know they don’t have to call him up to the big club but is there anywhere he can still pitch? extended spring training? i’m assuming he would have to pass through waivers if we wanted to send him down to memphis on a permanent basis, and with a salary like that i have a hard time believing anyone would claim him.
i know he’s a sunk cost right now, but i’d hate to see us get absolutely nothing out of the guy by releasing him…
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on
May 6, 2008 9:59 AM EDT
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Extended spring training...
is one option; they could “disable” Mulder again from rehab, and have him work on arm strength somewhere (Jupiter, St. Louis, whichever…)
Mulder’s next AAA start could be “make or break” for him; if he chunks another stinker, don’t look to see him pitching for the Cardinals for a l-o-n-g while…
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
by The Ol Goaler on
May 6, 2008 10:42 AM EDT
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We can use another LH in the bullpen
Especially if Springer continues to struggle.
by gocards62 on
May 6, 2008 11:40 AM EDT
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I guess
Albert figured out what to do when all those ground balls stop finding holes. Leave it to him to make the answer score from second. I don’t think he could fall out of bed without either knocking in or scoring a run.
"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin
by That's a Winner on
May 6, 2008 10:02 AM EDT
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hahahahahah
I don’t know why I find that statement so funny… but I do!
"...but If I can do some damage and help my team win, I'm going to stay in there" -Albert
by BigMOman on
May 6, 2008 10:52 AM EDT
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where's lboros?

Right there in the circle somehwere…. So much red in the crowd it’s hard to pic you out (full size pic is here).
by ericp on
May 6, 2008 10:14 AM EDT
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very nice pic
you’ve got the circle a tad too close to home plate; i was about one section further out toward the fence. bought those tix at the walkup window . . . .
by lboros on
May 6, 2008 10:40 AM EDT
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camera
You mind filling me in on camera/lens/shutter speed/iso/aperture?
thanks
"...but If I can do some damage and help my team win, I'm going to stay in there" -Albert
by BigMOman on
May 6, 2008 10:53 AM EDT
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thanks,
I’d worked a bit late and biked up there with a ten in my pocket hoping to get into the game… I didn’t get a ticket/sit down etc. until about the middle of the third, but almost as soon as I did I was greeted with this fine tableaux.
nitty gritty:
stock lens (at 18mm), on all auto with the exposure compensation turned down a stop; apparently it decided upon f/5 at 1/100th. I locked the exposure on a reading on the field before sweeping across with a seires of 8 shots, photoshop auto stitches them sublimely except when people move b/w pics, then they are at risk of getting the scrunchy-head (which, while unflattering, is far preferable to the occasional three-eye I’ve had pop up in shots like these).
by ericp on
May 6, 2008 2:10 PM EDT
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Great pic...
... but what is going on with the head of the guy sitting to the immediate right of the Edmonds fan? The guy three over from the Edmonds fan appears to suffer the same affliction – maybe they are brothers?
by birdjam on
May 6, 2008 11:10 AM EDT
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Yikes!
Looks like the panoramic was stitched together from multiple shots. Probably just a glitch in the stitching software.
Funny how it looks great everywhere else, though!
Reminds me of that car commercial with the witch doctor. “Hey, Bob…can I take off? I got a tiny head…”
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on
May 6, 2008 2:13 PM EDT
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me too!
i’m out there past the red circle, section 145 row 12. that was ridiculous, that play. i had been trying to stay calm with the friends i was with, y’know, trying to explain everything,since they’re sorta new at watching baseball. but when that shit went down, i jumped up and became a screaming, babbling lunatic. i don’t think i’ll ever forget watching his legs pumping as he rounded third …
by dpmay on
May 6, 2008 12:59 PM EDT
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Is Pineiro injured?
Batting in the fourth inning with two runners on, Pineiro swung awkwardly at the first pitch from Colorado starter Ubaldo Jimenez. Pineiro took the 95 mph fastball to the right forearm, but because he swung it was ruled a strike and the Cardinals pitcher had to continue the at-bat.
Being he didn’t last long after that pitch (but what a great at-bat, talk about grit).
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on
May 6, 2008 10:43 AM EDT
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Piñeiro was also
battling a balky back, which is why Parisi was called up; the rook would have started if Piñeiro had been unable to pitch last night.
We’ll know more later today—depends upon how much his hand swells up, and whether the swelling goes far enough down for him to pitch again his next turn. If not, Parisi probably gets the nod.
It’s not like Joel was dealing out there last night to begin with—but I usually take poor pitching performances at Coors with several large blocks of salt!
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
by The Ol Goaler on
May 6, 2008 10:49 AM EDT
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well, I propose his nickname
becomes “El Duque” for he showed True Grit for his performance last night.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on
May 6, 2008 11:00 AM EDT
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El áspero uno
The Gritty One per google translator, but I took French in high school in the mid 70’s so big disclaimer on accuracy on this one.
by ubeddie on
May 6, 2008 11:06 AM EDT
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Mine means...
The Duke…. but whatever he’s called… I’m impressed.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on
May 6, 2008 11:38 AM EDT
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El Duque
There is already an El Duque and I dont see El Piniero being of the same pedigree.
C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!
by yer dog first on
May 6, 2008 1:00 PM EDT
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Villone in top 100
It’s interesting that about half the career leaders in strikeouts per 9 are currently active—the Cardinals have two others in the top 100 besides Villone (Matt Clement and Chris Carpenter). Strike out rates have steadily climbed the last hundred years, peaking today at about 6.5 per game.
This steady rise in strikeout rates has made me curious whether the HR increase in recent years was the product of a change in batting strategies. Specifically, if players are simply more aggressive and hard swinging, they’ll hit more HRs and strikeout more (think of this as an all or nothing strategy).
Strikeouts have doubled since the 1930s and 1940s, when there were 3 strikeouts per game (roughly). There were roughly .50 HRs hit per game in the ‘30s and ‘40s; there are 1.10 per game now.
I ran a quick regression using yearly NL data from 1919 to 2007 regressing HR/g on SO/g. A strikeout is “worth” (predicts) .14 HRs per game. That means that we’d expect .90 HRs per game now based on the increase in strikeouts alone—a little shy of the actual 1.10 level, but not far off.
Is a change in batting strategy a major reason for the HR increase, and not (cough) other factors? Has anyone done a study to test for era-related changes in batting strategies?
by ncgostl on
May 6, 2008 10:44 AM EDT
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Great post!
Did you account for the lowering of the mound? It was first lowered in 1969. I would be curious to see if that caused a shift downward.
Where did you find your data?
"...but If I can do some damage and help my team win, I'm going to stay in there" -Albert
by BigMOman on
May 6, 2008 10:57 AM EDT
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Here's the baseball-reference link:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL.shtml
Scroll down past the season victories to the pitching data. There is definitely a drop after 1969. It’s easy to see that the 1970s are lower than the 1960s in general.
by ncgostl on
May 6, 2008 1:08 PM EDT
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Not a possible explanation at all!
Change in hitting strategy is definitely not a possible explanation. It HAS to be performance enhancing drugs!. That logical reason just isn’t sensational enough and wouldn’t provide enough material for ESPN to keep it’s 8 channels or the rest of the media circuit going. It HAS to be steroids! Other possible explanations such as increased strength training, improved scouting reports, smaller parks, video or anything else non-newsworthy is out as well.
by birdo rojo on
May 6, 2008 11:00 AM EDT
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Except for me
-Barry Bonds
"...but If I can do some damage and help my team win, I'm going to stay in there" -Albert
by BigMOman on
May 6, 2008 11:01 AM EDT
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Other factors would include...
“harder” baseballs; they’re more tightly-wound these days than they were as recently as the 1980’s. Ignoring all other factors, a “harder” baseball will travel further off the bat than a more loosely-wound baseball.
Ballpark effects; the “cookie-cutters” of the ‘70s have been replaced by bandboxes in Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and (for RH batters) Houston. San Francisco, San Diego, and Detroit built “pitcher-friendly” parks; Detroit wound up moving the outfield fences in after a couple of seasons. Busch III is (based on the limited data available so far) fairly “neutral”; tending to limit home runs only slightly.
New baseballs are used much more often today, eliminating “scuffballers”; pitchers who want to cheat are now limited to KY Kelly or “slippery elm” “spitters. New baseballs are also easier to see than balls with dark marks on ‘em. Pitches that act like the “spitter” (split-finger fastballs, “cut” fastballs) came into vogue in the 1980s; they tend to be “swing-and-miss” pitches, which would increase the strikeout rate. Conversely, “hanging” splitters/cutters turn into batting-practice fastballs, with predictable results!
As far as PEDs are concerned—we lack data. How many pitchers were “juicing” in the homer-happy 90s? Bat speed plus ball speed equals Boom!
Anecdotal evidence (data? what data?) indicates power hitters started striking out more in the 1950s… being struck out has lost it’s “shame on you!” effect, unless one is a “slap” hitter.
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
by The Ol Goaler on
May 6, 2008 11:20 AM EDT
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also add
lasik eye surgery to the list. It’s a huge advantage over relying on contact lenses or glasses to see the ball.
And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...
by SleepyCA on
May 6, 2008 2:04 PM EDT
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More Reasons
1. Video study of pitchers (already mentined above, sorry)
2. Advances in equipment – lighter, harder bats
3. Acceptance of protective gear for hitters
by Hal Lanier's Pants on
May 6, 2008 2:43 PM EDT
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Good suggestions
All of these are good suggestions and, combined, could account for all of the HR increase without invoking PED.
Many of these suggestions could be studied statistically, especially changes in ball parks, since you could look for year-to-year changes with similar teams.
I’m still curious, has a sabermetric study been done that tries to measure the relative size of each of these effects?
I should note that SO/9 alone explains 64% of the variance in HR/9 across seasons between 1919 and 2007. Because SO/9 is so strongly related to year, it may be partly picking up effects of ballpark size, etc., that also changed over years. However, SO/9 seems to be a pretty powerful predictor even if one took into account this collinearity.
My guess is that lasik will explain at most a percentage point or two since it affects only a limited number of players and, all else equal, represents a minor improvement on already corrected vision. Also, lasik should simultaneously decrease SO/9, increase HR/9, increase H/9, and increase BB/9—that’s a testable hypothesis at the individual level because we can look at pre/post performance in guys like Troy Glaus…...
by ncgostl on
May 6, 2008 2:55 PM EDT
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I seem to recall...
Someone wrote up an article about the possibility that Bonds’ steadily growing arm gear may have helped him hit homeruns just as much as any alleged substance use. I can’t remember who wrote the article but he had some credentials that made it seem like he knew what he was talking about… an engineer or physicist or something like that. Anybody know what I’m thinking of?
by mattybobo on
May 6, 2008 3:38 PM EDT
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That sounds familiar
But I can’t seem to recall anything more.
by saladdays on
May 6, 2008 3:53 PM EDT
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I believe the reasoning was that it shrunk the strikezone
even more because Bonds was able to hang over the plate without fear.
Also, now that you mention it, it may have been something to the effect of keeping his elbow ‘locked in’ that allowed him to have a repeatable motion on almost every pitch.
by Hardcore Legend on
May 6, 2008 3:55 PM EDT
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I believe you've hit the nail on the head.
I remember the elbow being “locked in” part
by saladdays on
May 6, 2008 3:56 PM EDT
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yeah, it was something mechanical like that
by mattybobo on
May 6, 2008 3:57 PM EDT
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The author's name was Michael Witte
The piece was an “interesting” theory, and an extract can be found here.
The full piece has apparently been removed from the EditorAndPublisher site, however. Barry probably paid off Mr. Witte to take it down. ;-)
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on
May 6, 2008 4:06 PM EDT
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Another possible effect
could be that pitchers’ K rates typically go down over the course of their careers; active pitchers have the benefit of not having their total decline phase included in their totals.
by Nate811 on
May 6, 2008 12:02 PM EDT
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True enough....
Any rate stat for good things will tend to decline as players stick around more (OPS, etc.), so younger players who haven’t declined yet will be overrepresented.
That said, the era effect is huge for strikeouts, so we have lots of other “notable” strikeout pitchers in the top 100 who have recently retired (after whatever decline they experienced):
Al Leiter, Jeff Fassero, Chuck Finley, Andy Benes, John Franco, Jason Bere, Sterling Hitchcock, Wilson Avarez, Pedro Astacio, Dave Burba…
Scared of any of these guys? These recently retired pitchers (10% of the top 100) were lifted to Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton, and Tom Seaver strikeout levels (!) by the era in which they pitched.
Another way to capture the era that removes any age bias: Of the 100 best K/9 seasons ever pitched in MLB history, 56 have been thrown by currently active players (one, by the way, is Rick Ankiel’s 2000 season—an active player but not an active, well, you know…..).
by ncgostl on
May 6, 2008 12:57 PM EDT
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Chuck Finley was pretty awesome for the Angels
"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams
by Valatan on
May 6, 2008 1:18 PM EDT
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I agree that Finley
was better than the rest of the list I threw together. Not fair to him. I should have dug a little more for one more name like Fassero.
I still find it telling that Finley’s career numbers place him 56th all time in SO/9, 184th in Adj ERA+, and 770th in WHIP. His lowest season WHIP was 1.23, which was 10th best in the AL that year (1990); it was the only time he finished a season in the top 10 in WHIP his entire career.
by ncgostl on
May 6, 2008 2:10 PM EDT
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Lineup tonight?
I’d give Albert the night off:
Skippy CF
Barton LF
Glaus 1B
Ludwick CF
Molina C
Ryan 3B
Miles 2B
Looper
Izturis SS
I’d consider replacing Rick with Skip but neither one of them can hit LHP right now, so it’s a toss up. If you did put Rick in the lineup:
Barton LF
Ryan 3B
Glaus 1B
Ludwick RF
Ankiel CF
Molina C
Miles 2B
Looper
Izturis SS
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
May 6, 2008 11:38 AM EDT
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Ludwick should be in RF in both.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
May 6, 2008 11:39 AM EDT
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Selfish, but...
I’m going to tonight’s game so I hope that Tony doesn’t give Albert the night off…but I can certainly see the reasoning.
If he does, maybe I’ll get to see some late inning pinch hit heroics.
by dwkii on
May 6, 2008 11:52 AM EDT
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barring a major roster emergency
i don’t see tony starting glaus at 1B. his one mop-up inning there this season was the first of his career, and while there’s precedent for tony to start inexperienced players there (pujols over tino) it seems odd to not give duncan the opportunity to start when his defense wouldn’t hurt the team as much, lefty starter be damned. while i’m sure glaus’d be fine over there, duncan will almost surely get all the pujols-off-day starts.
also, why should albert get the night off today instead of waiting ‘til the day game (thursday) before the divisional series in the good land? i’d rather he be fresh against the brewers.
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on
May 6, 2008 11:53 AM EDT
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+1
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on
May 6, 2008 11:58 AM EDT
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Is this our second visit to Milwaukee?
Milwaukee has certainly had its share of visitors. The French missionaries and explorers began visiting there in the late 16th century.
by mattybobo on
May 6, 2008 12:05 PM EDT
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indeed
i would further note that during the middle and late 19th Century, Wisconsin and the Milwaukee area became the final destination of many German immigrants fleeing the Revolution of 1848 in the various small German states and Austria.
by lboros on
May 6, 2008 12:15 PM EDT
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Does the word 'Milwaukee' mean anything?
"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams
by Valatan on
May 6, 2008 12:27 PM EDT
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I think it's
an Native American word for beer drinking, sausage inhaling, cheese head.
"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin
by That's a Winner on
May 6, 2008 12:44 PM EDT
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pretty close...lol
“Milwaukee” comes from an Algonquian word Millioke which means “Good/Beautiful/Pleasant Land”,
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on
May 6, 2008 12:48 PM EDT
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Or,
from the Potawatomi language, manwaking, meaning “Gathering place [by the water]” .
by cardsgirl95 on
May 6, 2008 12:53 PM EDT
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potawatomi
isn’t that a casino?
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on
May 6, 2008 1:55 PM EDT
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Yes, there is a casino
in Milwaukee by that name. But the Potawatomi are a Native American tribe, part of the Algonquian family. French records from the 17th century mention them living in Southwestern Michigan (where I live), but many fled to the Green Bay area to escape attacks from the Iroquois. Their name means “keepers of the fire”.
by cardsgirl95 on
May 6, 2008 2:31 PM EDT
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Ha! Remember "Wayne's World"?
Alice Cooper tells Wayne and Garth that “Milwaukee” means “the good land,”proof of his skills as a linguist, although I forget which Native American language he said it came from.
by Upset on
May 6, 2008 3:11 PM EDT
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does not approve of your characterization...

I'd rather my sister be a prostitute than my brother a Cub fan.
by _pistol_ on
May 6, 2008 12:55 PM EDT
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This is why you run an informative and popular blog..
and I don’t. All I had to do was look up a movie quote on imdb.com, whereas you seem to actually possess true historical knowledge.
by mattybobo on
May 6, 2008 1:27 PM EDT
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If you wanted to give Albert a night off this series...
Last night was the night to do it, you could have started Duncan at 1B against the righty.
by mikedallas45 on
May 6, 2008 1:02 PM EDT
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Agreed.....
With three lefties coming up, no way Albert sits any of them out.
by SoonerfanTU on
May 6, 2008 1:52 PM EDT
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Well that is sad
because Pujols general health is more important than winning tonight’s game. Albert has had 1 game off this season and the team is in the midst of 20 straight days with games. After he tweaked his back last night at 2B and then did something to his leg on the slide home, I’d hope TLR would pull the reins back on Big Al and sit him tonight to make sure he stays healthy.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
May 6, 2008 2:10 PM EDT
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being Cards are 2.5 up
and they won the first game of a series, he might be tempted to sit Pujols tonight.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on
May 6, 2008 2:24 PM EDT
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I would if I were Tony
He did pull up awkward in both occasions and the other boys need to start putting the ball in play more.
Pull Albert tonight, field our best defense that we can, and hope for the best I’d say, as long as he doesn’t give day off clearinghouse (ala the sunday game vs the giants) then we should be reasonably ok.
I’d much rather have one day without Albert than risk the idea of him on the 15 day during this series.
I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang
by AdjustedExpectations on
May 6, 2008 2:29 PM EDT
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-series + road trip
I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang
by AdjustedExpectations on
May 6, 2008 2:29 PM EDT
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I think that was a ploy
He was stretching his back to lull the second baseman into a lethargic state to allow his heroics.
by liam on
May 6, 2008 2:58 PM EDT
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You know, Albert
is the kind of guy who would do that, too. I wouldn’t be surprised.
by MdRedbirdFreak on
May 6, 2008 4:04 PM EDT
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Just a data point to consider, but...
... Pujols lifetime line vs. Redman is:
11 AB, 5 H, 1 HR, 3 RBI for a .455/.455/.727 mark. I’m guessing Tony won’t sit him down unless he’s sore and owns up to it.
BTW, Yadi’s line against Redman:
9 AB, 5 H, 1 2b, 2 HR(!), 4 RBI, 1 BB -> .556/.600/1.333 Very small sample size, but I still hope Yadi is squatting behind home tonight and not Lash Larue.
by punditmoi on
May 6, 2008 2:41 PM EDT
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"Lash LaRue"?
Shouldn’t that be ‘STACHE LaRue?
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on
May 6, 2008 4:09 PM EDT
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ESPN funny
Didn’t get a chance to read through the game threads from last night so it might have been mentioned.
Yesterday Jerry Crasnick did his ‘That’s Debatable’ column on espn.com.
It’s a discussion on how the NL Central is playing out. Some good thoughts in there. Then smack in the middle I see this and literally laugh out loud.
ESPN Management (CT): Umm…...what does this have to do with the Red Sox and Yankees?SportsNation Jerry Crasnick: Management, Let’s take a break with the sarcasm, OK?
It’s the simple things…
by paposse on
May 6, 2008 11:49 AM EDT
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Did you know?
According to B-R
Pujols has no hits this year with the count 0-2 (4 PA, 1 SO) and 3-2 (22 PA, 14 AB, 8 W, 4 SO).
Something to watch for.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on
May 6, 2008 12:30 PM EDT
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0-2
Usually Albert’s 0-2 counts are not the end of the AB, as you can tell he has only 1 k and 3 other outs but after an 0-2 count he is 4-14 with 1 RBI, 1BB and 1HBP. Not usual Albert stats for that count though. Last season he batted .320 after 0-2 counts right now he is only at .286 As for 3-2 counts he usually has an over .400 OBP and right now he has about .360, so not too far off his normal pace.
by StLHugo on
May 6, 2008 2:37 PM EDT
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2004 draft -- Chris Lambert making me bang my head against the wall...
Did y’all see this little tidbit in this morning’s Post-Dispatch article on the “lessons learned” from the terrible 2004 draft class?
Their first-round pick, pitcher Chris Lambert, was the player to be named later in last summer’s deal with Detroit that netted Mike Maroth. Lambert … is 4-1 with a 2.48 ERA for Detroit’s Class AAA affiliate.
ARGH….
by DCRedbird on
May 6, 2008 12:31 PM EDT
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He's struck out 18 and walked 16 in 32 innings
I wouldn’t worry.
by azruavatar on
May 6, 2008 1:10 PM EDT
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good point
Hadn’t seen that—thanks AZ.
by DCRedbird on
May 6, 2008 6:51 PM EDT
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Walker back for a few games
Hope he can get some “pop” back into the Cards bat…... via advice….. Will he be coaching 1st base as well?
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on
May 6, 2008 1:02 PM EDT
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my bad...
McCay still there, just not throwing BP.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on
May 6, 2008 1:04 PM EDT
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What's the thing with Walker?
Is he just a guest ‘cause we’re in Colorado? Is he officially working for the team?
by sdrone on
May 6, 2008 4:11 PM EDT
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Open invitation
the PD today said that TLR is trying to get McGwire to come sit the bench for a few games later this season as well.
by Hardcore Legend on
May 6, 2008 4:26 PM EDT
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Walking Pujols = losing baseball
Glad to see Kahrl’s article – this kernal had been bouncing around my head lately.
The increased IBBs are particularly head-scratching given the marked improvement in cleanup hitters (Ankiel/Glaus/Ludwick vs. Edmonds/Encarnacion).
Seems another example of “conventional wisdom” leading to “lousy baseball strategy”. At least the Cards seem to be on the winning end of this one.
by bgodar on
May 6, 2008 1:04 PM EDT
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Sadly, the managers will...
go with the old adage “don’t let their best player beat you”.
Who knew he can also beat you from second to home on a freaking ground out. You now will have teams keeping a third eye out not only for Pujols, but the other players who might try it…..
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on
May 6, 2008 1:41 PM EDT
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Mulder toasted
I’m sure “toast” was what you meant, but who knows, if he’s toasted (stumbling drunk on the mound), maybe there is some hope for him yet!
by mcg96 on
May 6, 2008 2:14 PM EDT
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OT: Wasn't SBNation
going to give us the ability to put links in our Sigs during the last upgrade?
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
May 6, 2008 2:55 PM EDT
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I've seen some with it..
but I haven’t tried
"...but If I can do some damage and help my team win, I'm going to stay in there" -Albert
by BigMOman on
May 6, 2008 2:58 PM EDT
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Didn't they
always?
Signature: How to make a link
by liam on
May 6, 2008 3:03 PM EDT
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Up until last week
everytime I tried, it would never save the settings to allow the link. It would just revert back to the standard text format.
It appears it works now. Yippee!!!
by Hardcore Legend on
May 6, 2008 3:06 PM EDT
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Can you imagine how well
Ankiel would do he if he wasn’t put in the pressured RBI slots. At number 2 he can threaten with power, while increasing his selectivity. At 6, he could sneak up on people and maybe be encouraged to develop a more ” finesse ” approach to off-field hitting. He will never get the inside “mistakes” unless he can be more productive with the outside corner. He generates incredible bat speed around his body by keeping his hand and arms so connected to his torso. Great for inside pitches…...bad for staying back and keeping the bat-head in the zone which is necessary for dealing with sliders and change-ups. He will become a great player if he is not destroyed with so much team responsibility in the clean-up spot. ........................ Duncan and Glaus have both gone mental. You couldn’t find a team that would take Glaus’ contract. You couldn’t find a team the would take Duncans talents for free. Every team has prospects with more talent than his….....including this team…....sorry….............I would go to great extremes to keep the pitching momentum up. If you don’t act decisively while you have momentum, supporting it with productive ball players, You end up like 75% of the other teams in the league, praying for pitching…..........
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on
May 6, 2008 4:43 PM EDT
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6 hole tonight
for Ankiel facing LHP. Much better than the 2 spot from a team point of view in my opinion.
by ubeddie on
May 6, 2008 5:28 PM EDT
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nice
I like him at 6… 2 is good also. don’t think 4 is best for him at this point.
Ankiel is Jesus!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
May 6, 2008 5:37 PM EDT
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Line-up, per Bernie:
Barton
Kennedy
Pujols
Ludwick
Glaus
Ankiel
Molina
Looper
Izturis
by cardsgirl95 on
May 6, 2008 5:22 PM EDT
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I like it against the lefty
But when we get Redman out, expect Schu to come in
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on
May 6, 2008 5:26 PM EDT
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/inserts obligatory complaint about brendan ryan.
carry on…
And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...
by SleepyCA on
May 6, 2008 5:29 PM EDT
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beat me to it
although if there is a lefty that Kennedy can hit it is Mark Redman. Redman’s career splits (from br):
.283 .342 .443 .785 vs. RHB
.266 .321 .424 .745 vs. LHB
Not much difference
by indakind on
May 6, 2008 5:33 PM EDT
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Think Tony
wants the better infield defense behind Looper.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on
May 6, 2008 5:33 PM EDT
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I'd like to see Ryan instead of Izturis
But at least I’m starting to come around on the reasoning to play Izturis. He has made some very solid defensive plays for us, including the first play in the bottom of the ninth. As long as he’s in the #9 spot, that’s ok. I definiely want to keep AK in there at the #2 spot until he stops playing like he has been.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on
May 6, 2008 5:51 PM EDT
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I still would like to see
1. Skip
2 Barton
But man, Kennedy has liked that 2 spot. Barton has been better at leadoff correct? Or is that something my mind made up?
by Evilfrog on
May 6, 2008 5:33 PM EDT
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+1
can’t really move Kennedy when he has been getting rbi’s there
Ankiel is Jesus!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
May 6, 2008 5:40 PM EDT
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Skip is struggling a bit
and could use a day off. Perfect time against the lefty. Plus if we chase out Redman early, we can sub in Skip against a righty and as a defensive replacement.
Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)
PUT SKIP ON THE BALLOT!!!
by stltrav09 on
May 6, 2008 7:28 PM EDT
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Any word on Pineiro?
Hit by pitch, bad back, short outing = ???
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on
May 6, 2008 5:29 PM EDT
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Rick's late inning struggles
reminds me of some tendencies I’ve noticed Rick has in his approach at the plate.
Pitch selection aside, two things that are pretty easily observed about Rick in the box is:
1) In big situations, he starts ‘twitching’. He starts wagging the bat fast, his hands are moving around. He seems ‘amped up’ for the AB.
2) He refuses to ever call timeout. He freezes himself in the box if the pitcher takes took long to throw the pitch. Basically, once he steps in that box, he isn’t stepping out no matter how long the pitcher is going to take.
Neither of these are that big of a deal except I think it shows how ‘young’ he is as a hitter. For most MLB hitters, by the time they reach the Bigs, they’ve developed an ‘internal clock’ as to how long to stay in the box before their body gets out of the rythem they need to hit with.
by Hardcore Legend on
May 6, 2008 6:31 PM EDT
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Good observations
I think those are signs of inner conflict. Probably the same monster that attacked his pitching career. In all fairness, so much is made of power numbers and big contracts, (Troy), that players seem to speculate in there own interest when given half a chance. Ankiel’s swing tempo makes him a bad candidate for a sacrifice fly or a simple ground ball to score a run. It seems to be hard of nothing, allot of foul balls and strike outs. Pitchers and catchers have also noticed his tension. Good ones will make him wait for the ball every time.
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on
May 6, 2008 6:44 PM EDT
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![Homecoming King. The highway, the fans in red, the stats [read here] ... and El Hombre taking a pitch with men on base.](http://cdn2.sbnation.com/fan_shot_images/57721/cardinals09pujolsatkauf_small.jpg)









