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double dare ya

i had a perfect view of the play ----- 15th row in section 142, about 20 feet behind 3d base. albert got a tremendous jump, had the base stolen easily; he was 25 feet past the bag and under a full head of steam by the time the 2bman decided to throw it to first. reminded me vaguely of lawrence taylor on a blitz as he charged around the corner. i didn’t think they’d even have a play on him, but helton got rid of the ball incredibly fast (watch it on the replay; it’s like the ball bounces off him) and made a perfect throw, almost got him . . . . . maybe did get him. but the tie goes to the runner, right? what a thrill; i’m a pretty undemonstrative fan, but this brought me out of my seat hollering (only half-voluntarily) "come on albert!" i don’t think i’ve seen a prettier dash since that time back in 1975 when one of the casten boys (can’t exactly recall which of the brothers it was) bolted out of the shadows at half an hour past midnight to win an epic game of capture-the-flag. . . . . and i had just been thinking how the cards’ failure to get a couple runners home from third with less than two out was probably gonna cost them the game. so they go and get a runner home from second on a groundball.

vince coleman couldn’t have done it better himself.

albert’s run took our attention off another feeble late-inning at-bat from rick ankiel; from the 7th inning on this year he’s hitting .105 / .171 / .184 in 41 trips to the plate. it’s a tiny sample size and surely not predictive, but it’s definitely descriptive --- ankiel looks anxious up there in big situations. easy to say about rick given his history, but am i just imagining it?

ron villone puts on a nice show. he’s got a niche only a left-handed pitcher can have; you’ll never see a grizzled right-handed reliever brought into the game to fearlessly chuck his 87-mph fastball (or so it read on the stadium gun) over the plate. his cadence could only be a left-hander’s, too. he gets a whole lot accomplished between pitches: stalk around grass on 3d-base side of mound, glance at fielders, climb hill, tug at belt, glance at hitter, flick pitching arm, draw limbs into position, read sign, set, kick, throw. bet you didn’t know (i didn’t) that villone was a very high draft pick --- 14th overall in the 1992 draft. bet you also didn’t know that his career k/9 of 7.11 is among the top 100 in the history of baseball (minimum 1000 innings pitched); he ranks 74th. i didn’t know either, until just this very second. his confrontation with hawpe (2 on, 2 out in the 5th) was a triumph of stubbornness; away, away, away on every pitch. hawpe figured it out after the first couple of pitches (by which time he was down 0-2 in the count) and stopped swinging, worked the count to 3-2 and forced villone to come in with one of those crappy fastballs; villone put it on his hands and hawpe fouled it off. and then he went back to the outside corner with a slider, and hawpe couldn’t resist the bait and waved at it, struck out.

i was happy for mike parisi, to whom i’ve paid way too much attention as he has climbed the rungs of the system. he was fired up for that first inning, came right after the hitters and made it look easy; after he struck out matt herges to end the inning (his first big-league K) yadi handed him the ball on the way back to the dugout. in his second inning of work (the 7th) parisi just couldn’t get the fastball over; he was overthrowing it, leaving it up. the long flyout off the bat of the tiny shortstop, quintanilla, seemed to shake him (horrible route to that ball by ankiel, by the way; i think the altitude fooled him); after holliday and helton reached base the kid was looking over his shoulder, out to the bullpen, where (oh shit) nobody was warming up . . . . . the first pitch to atkins passed about a foot over his helmet, and it looked like the rookie was gonna buckle, but he steadied himself and got out of the jam. for some reason parisi completely abandoned his curveball that inning; he did throw one on the first pitch to atkins (the one that went over his head); given how sharp the hook looked in the 6th (he got all three outs on it), i don’t know why he would turn away from it vs the top of the order.

the cards made more than enough mistakes to lose the game, probably should have lost it. the sight of pujols barreling home will stay with me for a long time.

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For someone who always says, "Im not one to complain about the Umps."

I sure do it a lot. Yadi was safe by a mile. And it cost us a run and an out with runs on first and third. Ok. That’s all im going to say about that.

Three left handers comming up next. Good chance we wont see Duncan in left field until we get to Milwaukee. He looks worse this year than last. It’s like he was talking fielding pratice with Soriano. After his rookie year he played winter ball in left. And he looked servicable in left field the first half. Only made two errors last year; didn’t take bad jumps on every ball. He still had is akward moments. But nothing like this year. Im afraid after not playing the last half of the season or much of spring training that he lost whatever he gained by playing winter ball. Sucks, but unless his bat picks up we can not have him out there in left field playing that bad. (To be fair, here I should mention the OF assist)

Oh and Piniaro. Don’t stare down the Pitching Coaches son when you are getting hammered. Showing up teammates on the field is never a wise idea. Yes he cost you two runs. But you could have easily have been hit for more without the errors.

by Evilfrog on May 6, 2008 8:45 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Yeah that really pisses me off about Pineiro

You just don’t do that. I don’t care if Pineiro WAS pitching great and Duncan still made those two errors. This is a team that struggled with chemistry last year, but this year it seems great… why toy with something so important like that?

Should Dunc, Ankiel, and Shumaker all stared down Pineiro every time they caught a rocket last night?

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

PUT SKIP ON THE BALLOT!!!

by stltrav09 on May 6, 2008 9:00 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

That call on Molina

was the worst I have seen in sometime.

by ridgesee on May 6, 2008 9:55 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

about as bad -

as the missed called on Schumaker at the plate a couple days ago.

You get some … you lose some.

by Urban Pawnee on May 6, 2008 10:06 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

No, it was much worse than that, IMO.

This was compounded by Yadi not even being tagged. So the ump a) missed that Yadi’s foot crossed the plate well before any tag was made and b) missed that Yadi was not even tagged.

by saladdays on May 6, 2008 10:36 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

video

does anybody have video, or a still shot, of the play that yall are talking about? I was at work and didnt get to see the game.

C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!

by yer dog first on May 6, 2008 12:48 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Use mlb.com

gameday from yesterday and click on the video tab on the right side of the screen

by ubeddie on May 6, 2008 1:02 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Thanks

C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!

by yer dog first on May 6, 2008 1:08 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Wow...

just wow…

With the ump standing right over top of that, there’s no way he shouldve missed that. Then again, he could be thinking, “the ball beat him, of course he’s out”.

booo anyway

C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!

by yer dog first on May 6, 2008 1:12 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

No.

Molina beat the ball, the catcher was in front of the plate, took the ball, reached around his back and tried to tag Molina behind him with half of Molina’s body across the plate and replay slomo shows that he really never got the ball on Molina. After that TV nevcer showed it anymore and the announcers shut up about it. To me it was pretty obivious to everyone in the park but the umpire. It was definitely a dinkinger call.
Also that umpire changed his balls and strikes calls about half way through the game. He started started off squeezing the strike zone and then turned liberal about the 6th inning, or that’s the way I saw it.

by ridgesee on May 6, 2008 2:58 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

they didn't shut up about it..

On the FSN broadcast. They showed it like 3 times. And came back to it the next inning.

by Evilfrog on May 6, 2008 4:52 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Great game

Stirring game, got my blood up big-time - and I didn’t even start watching until Parisi’s second inning after attending a daughter’s band concert. The drama just in those last innings was something. Parisi and Flores worked so hard to get out of the 7th and 8th innings, the ridiculous missed call at the plate, Izturis’s great play on the first batter in the 9th, which was huge for Izzy. I was way pumped up after the game and for once thought I would watch the postgame show on FSN - and then the power went out here. Just poof! Gone. No storms in the area. The entire neighborhood went eerily dark.

All pumped up and nowhere to go. I sat on our deck for a while and then went to bed. But, man, what a game. I would have loved to have seen Pineiro’s at-bat.

by Youneverknow on May 6, 2008 8:46 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Eric Ludwick!

So says Ms. Kahrl’s article! New nickname!

by sdrone on May 6, 2008 9:02 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Brother

Eric Ludwick was a pitcher traded for Big Mac. Probably just got the brothers confused.

by StLHugo on May 6, 2008 9:11 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

trivia

that’s something i didn’t know. can anybody tell me what happened to that john edwards kid? i always liked him.

by mattybobo on May 6, 2008 10:58 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Hey that's right

what has happened to John Edwards?

by ridgesee on May 6, 2008 11:05 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

This Jon Edwards?

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=31585

From what I can tell he is still in extended spring training.

by StLHugo on May 6, 2008 11:15 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

He's there hiding

from Hillary and Barack. They just won’t leave him alone. Constantly hounding him about who he will endorse. Give the guy a break, he’s just trying to get his swing together.

"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin

by That's a Winner on May 6, 2008 11:41 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Fact checking is thing of the past. . .

in the wiki age. Sigh! If you say something long and loud and often enough, it’s true.

by gocards62 on May 6, 2008 11:38 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Albert's play

should be shown to every MVP voter. He should have 3 or 4 by now.
Duncan’s got to sit in favor of Ludwick. Two years ago when he had that great half season and Reyes had the great game in the World Series they were hot commodities who could have been traded for pieces that would have helped. Now, neither is worth much, especially the way he’s hitting. I hope he has a resurgence before the trade deadline and Mo can get something useful for him, but his offense has now been in eclipse since last year’s All-Star break. And as Evilfrog says, his defense looks like it’s getting worse, not better.

by vinniefromjersey on May 6, 2008 9:25 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

I reminded me...

... of a run scored by Anhaim’s Vlad Guerrero from 2nd on a bunt. This one was even better, due to Albert’s inferior speed.

GO CARDS!!!

by SuperSeve on May 6, 2008 9:38 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

In fairness to Ank and Dunc

conditions weren’t good for either of them to succeed. Fuentes is a beast against left-handed hitters, and the outfield in Denver is hard to play. What were conditions like on the two errors?

by StanTheManFan on May 6, 2008 9:34 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Both were his fault completely

One, was a soft fly ball that he completely mis played, he was there, it dropped in front of him (not an issue that he missed it) but after the bounce it hit off his glove and rolled away. The next was a ground ball through his legs. Looked like a circus clown out there.

by StLHugo on May 6, 2008 9:46 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

and a third..

I thought the earlier line drive out to left-center was catchable too (might have been a tough play.. but it didn’t seem that far over his head) if he would have taken a decent route to the ball.

by Birds on the Matt on May 6, 2008 10:42 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

add some botched ones Sunday night

I don’t get to watch many Cards game on tv because they’re never on tv in my area, thank you Mr. Selig. Finally getting to see some of the games against the cubbies and especially watching Sunday nights game was an eye opener. You’d think Dunc could handle things better in his own left field. I saw one ball hit into the corner that he just wasn’t willing to stop, instead he chased it around the left field corner for a bit and the cubs got extra bases out of it. Not a big deal since the Cards won the game, but Dunc is going to cost us runs if he can’t learn to play the outfield.

Maybe we should let him relieve Albert at 1st once in a while to boost his trading power.

by sbentley on May 6, 2008 11:25 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Interleague Play

I think it would be best to keep the status quo until after interleague play. I think we could really use Dunc at DH. And like you were saying, to hopefully showcase his bat to AL teams.

born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red

by totalloser on May 6, 2008 2:53 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Duncan had a bad inning, move on

The first error was a sliced ball that took a super ball hop over his shoulder.

The second was when he was charging the ball for a play at home and he missed it; Edmonds generally had two of those a year.

Duncan had a bad inning, but this team is going to need him to hit if they want to do anything.

Or should the Cubs dump Soriano after his misplays on Friday too?

Dave

by SydneyDave on May 6, 2008 11:34 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I don't think the Cards should dump him

but I think you have to admit that we have 4 other very capable outfielders who aren’t butchers in the field and whose offensive production isn’t that much of a drop off from Duncan. Therefore, I disagree that the Cards need Duncan to hit if they want to do anything.

by Ray Lankford on May 6, 2008 1:40 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

What do you consider "not much of a dropoff"?

Against RHP, Duncan’s got a career 935 OPS. That’s one of the best numbers in MLB.

Ankiel is 750; Ludwick is 834, Schu is a 795, and Barton is 912 in 18 PAs.

Among the guys other than Barton, Duncan’s got 100 points of OPS against RHP. He’s the second best hitter against RHP on the team. Plus, Duncan is younger than the three of those guys, having turned 27 yesterday on a birthday he’d like to forget.

He’s in a funk now, which he has shown to have over the last couple of years. He’ll get the next three days off, and hopefully get his swing back. Because if he hits like his career numbers, the Cards can certainly use him.

Dave

by SydneyDave on May 6, 2008 2:51 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

His career numbers

are still too small of a sample size to claim that he may revert back to them.

I certainly hope that he can and does but it is no certainty. And while he continues to struggle at the plate, he is costing the Cardinals runs in the OF.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on May 6, 2008 2:53 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

small sample size

major league numbers only:

duncan career vs. RHP = 692 PA
ludwick career vs. RHP = 470 PA
schumaker career vs. RHP = 333 PA
ankiel career vs. RHP = 309 PA
barton career vs. RHP = 18 PA

if the small-sample-size argument applies to duncan, it applies to the other four as well. and the one of those four most likely to “regress to the career mean” in the good direction is ankiel, who’s probably going to play vs. RHPs anyway. of all our OF’s, duncan has proven both in quality and quantity that he can hit RHP far better than the rest of the group, and he needs to play against them as much as possible.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on May 6, 2008 3:15 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Huh?

No one was arguing that Duncan’s sample size was smaller than the other OF we have.

The argument is that he is pretty awful right now on all sides of the ball and probably should get some time off to let others get their chance to ‘regress to the career mean’.

You can’t have a staff of ‘pitch to contact’ starters and hope to succeed with a LF that has the ball rolling through his legs are bouncing over his head at the wall 4 or 5 times a week.

by Hardcore Legend on May 6, 2008 3:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

You are making it seem like this happens every game

He had a rough night, and I saw a lot of OF mis play balls last night ie… not taking the best route to balls.

Dunc is not going to win a gold glove but he is not the worst in the league either. I think the Cards need him to have a good year.

I think some people are extra hard on him becaue his dad is a coach, and not all people are fond of his dad. The Cards havea lot of OF and I think Tony is using them well.

by ICbirdfan on May 6, 2008 3:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Actually...

...what happens “every game” is Duncan makes it look like an adventure out there. While the 2008 results, prior to last night, were certainly acceptable, last night he was exposed as the below average outfielder he has proven to be. There have also been a plethora of plays that were not ruled errors that an average or above average fielder (such as possibly Ludwick) might have been able to make routinely.

Duncan is not a good outfielder. He’s a DH/1B who is being forced to “learn on the fly” because we have the best player in baseball at 1B already and we are in the NL.

If Duncan’s bat were irreplaceable, you could possibly stomach his defensive weaknesses. But when you have other OFers on your 25 man roster with better defense and similar or better offensive production, you don’t have to keep trotting Duncan out there while waiting for his bat to come around and “hoping his hard work and good intentions in the OF” improve his defense.

Just put Ludwick in left routinely until Duncan starts mashing RHers again more than Luddy does. IMHO, our regular OF should include Ankiel (CF), Schumaker (RF) and Ludwick (LF) against righties and Ankiel (CF), Ludwick (RF) and Barton (LF) against lefties. Meanwhile, keep looking for a team that needs a lefty DH/1B and work a trade. The situation will only get worse once Rasmus is ready for his callup.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on May 6, 2008 3:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

tht says

that duncan has caught 34 of 36 balls hit in his “zone”, and 9 balls “out of zone”, which is right up there with Eric Byrnes and Fred Lewis for “best in the league”. Compare that to Pat Burrell, who has made just 34 of 42, or carlos lee who has made 34 of 43, or adam dunn (42 of 49). Soriano? 21 of 28. Willingham? 33 of 40. Diaz? 40 of 47. Holliday? 52 of 56.

Is there a better, free fielding metric than RZR? Because based on RZR, Duncan has been much better than a “league average LF” this year. He’s “looked” worse than he has been, sure, but he isn’t costing us runs the way the folks mentioned above are.

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on May 6, 2008 4:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

In the last 4 games

he has dropped a flyball, failed to dig a ball out of the corner, had a ball go through his legs, had a ball roll up his arm and over his head and this doesn’t take into account the many ‘catches’ he has had seemingly falling down or tripping over his own feet on routine plays.

I have to also wonder what RZR considers as ‘the zone’ for a LF. Duncan plays so deep that alot of balls drop in front of him that seem that another, more agile LF should be able to come up with on the fly.

This all would be a moot point if Duncan were hitting. He isn’t. He should give way to another of our 4 OF’ers and try to find his swing again pinch-hitting off the bench.

by Hardcore Legend on May 6, 2008 4:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

those balls that "drop in front of him"

Should be considered “in the zone”. Either that, or “out of zone”. Either way, they are accounted for, and Duncan is doing fine by both unless our pitchers cause hitters to hit an inordinate number of shallow fly balls- but given that Schumaker in LF doesn’t have as high of an OOZ catches/BIZ catches ratio, I doubt that is the case.

And since someone else mentioned that “failed to dig the ball out of the corner”, that ball was a double no matter what and the runner got a double on it. It’s not fair to count that against him because it didn’t cost us anything, unless you really believe Duncan was going to throw the runner out at second.

Again, I’m not arguing that he doesn’t “look” bad out there- but he’s getting the job done.

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on May 6, 2008 4:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

starting

you say that like dunc’s on a pace to start 162 games, which he’s not. he’s only started 20 of the team’s 33 games, and he’s only played the entire game in 12 of those 20. i wouldn’t exactly call him an “everyday” player – certainly not to the point where his poor defense leaves the team exposed every day..

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on May 6, 2008 4:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

good point

i did not. wasn’t that something like 5-6 games at the beginning of the season?

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on May 6, 2008 5:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

He started Opening Day

then we faced the lefties and Barton was in LF. Here are the gamelogs from baseball reference.

by ubeddie on May 6, 2008 5:33 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

we had the same idea

i quoted RZR further down the tabs. but i don’t know of any other metrics that are free. what i do know, though, is that dunc’s two errors last night were his first of the season. and for what it’s worth, his range factor is far above league average for his position so far.

ugly as it may seem, chris is holding his own out there right now.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on May 6, 2008 4:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

OF errors are rare

Soriano didn’t get an error on Molina’s groundrule double last weekend but any competent LF should make that catch.

The general (loose) rule is that if your glove doesn’t touch it, it’s not an error in the OF.

by Hardcore Legend on May 6, 2008 4:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

that "non-error"

is likely one of the 7 balls that RZR says Soriano should have caught.

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on May 6, 2008 4:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

i dunno

about the groundrule double (although i’m not remembering it terribly clearly), but certainly the other non-catch in that same inning that brought in the third run would’ve fallen within his “zone”.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on May 6, 2008 4:46 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

RZR and Chris Duncan

Up until last night, RZR showed Chris Duncan tied for 1st as the best LF in MLB. Think that was accurate? I don’t.

Yes, he had done well until last night’s game. But the numerous “circus catches” were indicative that he was playing over his head. In my opinion, he has started to “regress to the mean” (everybody has to drink!) defensively. I fully expect as the season wears on that he will again be repeatedly exposed as a sub-par LFer. No historical data or personal observations have given me any reason to suspect that Chris Duncan has in fact become the new Eric Byrnes in LF for 2008.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on May 6, 2008 4:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Right

And the fact that he makes the easy catches look hard makes me wonder how long he can keep that up. On the one hand, as long as he’s making the plays then that’s all that matters. On the other hand, a defender with undisputedly bad fundamentals is tempting fate each time he takes a bannana route to a ball. Sooner or later the ball will fly over your head . . . or bounce over your head . . . or roll between your legs. Besides, last night’s shallow fly ball that bounced over his head should have been caught. Whether its in his “zone” or not, I don’t know, but it seems like if you pull up on a ball so short that it bounces over your head, you should have kept digging and made the catch, IMO.

by Ray Lankford on May 6, 2008 5:06 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

you said “his career numbers are still too small of a sample size to claim that he may revert back to them.” i’m just pointing out that his level of production is far more established than the others. yeah, he’s off to a somewhat rough start this year (if you could call a .400+ OBP “rough”), but the power production is likely to get better. as opposed to say, ludwick, who is more likely to regress downward than maintain his current level (not that he can’t, just saying what is probable). either way, duncan is better than what he’s shown this season. and against RHP, his numbers are better than any of the other OF.

my point: if you can’t play duncan against RHP, when can you play him? and if you can’t play him, his value will not get any higher for potential trade suitors (see: reyes, anthony).

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on May 6, 2008 3:53 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

forgive me

i haven’t checked the stats in a couple of days, his OBP has dropped to .385. still, the point remains. i’d love to see that OBP consistently in the 2-hole, like in 2006.

i get the impression that dunc is the type of guy who benefits from regular PT (though his splits don’t show a huge disparity), so i’d hate to see him get worse through riding the pine. i hate to say it, but if going to play any less than he currently is, he should be in memphis working on his defense and getting more ABs, a la reyes.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on May 6, 2008 3:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

"far better than the rest of the group"

But currently Duncan is NOT far better than the rest of the group this year. He’s hitting .290/.423/.435 vs RH pitching for an OPS of .858. Ludwick’s numbers against righties are .362/.412/.660 for an OPS of 1.072) in roughly the same number of ABs (62 vs 47). (TONY: Please note that Luddy’s OPS is 110 points higher against RIGHT handed pitchers this year…EXACTLY like his career reverse splits show!)

That’s a 214 point OPS difference. If you compare Luddy and Lil Dunc against LH, it’s obscene.

So while I don’t agree with anyone who says we should “dump Duncan,” I most certainly do agree with the position to “sit Duncan” when he’s struggling at the plate (as he is now), especially since 1) he is also a defensive liability in the field (whereas Ludwick is good defensively), and 2) we currently have a better option than Duncan in Ludwick…against both RH and LH pitchers.

I agree that Duncan’s offensive ceiling may be higher than “Eric” Ludwick, but it would appear that his floor is also much, much lower…especially when you factor in the number of runs he could end up costing us in the outfield.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on May 6, 2008 3:40 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Exactly

Duncan looks like a clown in the outfield and, although his offense is good, its nothing that can’t be closely replicated (see Ludwick) by someone who isn’t a defensive liability.

Thank you for making my original point with a much better, factually supported post.

by Ray Lankford on May 6, 2008 4:05 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

defense

according to THT’s RZR, duncan has substantially improved in the field in 2008 – a .944 rating so far, as opposed to .851 in ‘06 and .781 in ‘07. ludwick, by comparison, posted a .905 RZR in LF in ‘07 (and is carrying an .857 rating in RF so far in ‘08).

if you’re gonna argue for ludwick based on the small offensive sample size for this year, you’ve got to accept that despite the visual impressions, duncan has been acceptable in the field so far this year.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on May 6, 2008 4:13 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Yes and No

I’m fine with using small sample sizes for the current year when they tend to fall in line with the larger/career data. When the smaller/current samples are waaaay outside the deviation of the larger data, however, I tend to discount them as outliers.

For example, Ludwick has always had good offensive numbers against RH. This year he has slightly better numbers against RH. That seems within reason, and he’s likely to slide back toward his career numbers. But currently he is outperforming. Perhaps Luddy is “seeing the ball well” this year, as they say.

Similarly, Duncan has always had better offensive numbers against RH than Luddy. But this year, his power is way down. Some say he has adjusted his swing to reduce strikeouts, but whatever the cause, he is not producing as he has in the past. Do I think his offense will remain this low all year? Nope. But atm, Ludwick is outproducing him. Substantially.

On the defensive side, Ludwick has always been a fairly “average” defender. In his limited career so far, Duncan has been a below average defender. Those stats are further reinforced by what I see (I watch every game). So I think Luddy will continue to be an average defender, and despite Duncan’s good start, I fully expect him to quickly drop below average as more balls fly his way. After all, his RZR was 1.000 before yesterday. Think that was accurate? I sure don’t.

So to me, with everything taken in context, Ludwick clearly represents the better option to play LF over Duncan until Duncan shows that his power has returned.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on May 6, 2008 4:47 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

"until Duncan shows that his power has returned"

So what would he have to “show” you for you to know that his power has returned? Would one great game be enough? What about two?

What I’m getting at is that he will have to play in order to get back in the groove. How often should he play? When should he play? These are all difficult questions, and I for one, trust TLR to ma