Do MLB hitters improve their chances of getting a hit...

by philbobilbo on May 3, 2008 7:41 PM EDT Comment 9 comments

when they run the count long (i.e. 2-2, 3-2, a 10 pitch at bat, etc.)?

As I was watching today's game, there were a couple of hitters that ran the count long, and that got me to thinking about this. I'm guessing that some of you fans out there have those statistics, and I'm wondering whether that's changed over the years, percentage-wise (for example 30% better chance in the 1970s vs. 55% better in the steroids era, etc.).

Obviously, the chance for the hitter to get a walk improves, but I wondered about actual hits, and whether they're of the single or extra-base variety.

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well, one reason

is on a full count, the pitcher needs to throw strikes, opposed to with zero or one ball, when they can throw away, in the dirt, etc. Because of that need to throw a strike, it’s easier for the hitter to guess, and therefore get a hit.

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by aet15 on May 3, 2008 8:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Plus

the more pitches a pitcher throws, the more likely (I’m assuming) of seeing a mistake pitch. Mistake pitches = extra bases. Besides, you want to wear out the opposing pitcher, even if you don’t get a hit.

by spants on May 3, 2008 8:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes

The more pitches a pitcher throws to a batter, the more likely it is that he will make a mistake and give the batter the pitch he wants.

The best hitters know how to foul off pitches they can’t do anything with so that they get another chance of seeing a mistake.

by thepainguy on May 4, 2008 2:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd say so

the more pitches you see, the better chance you have of getting a hit. Makes sense, huh?

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by stltrav09 on May 4, 2008 4:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I looked at a few hitters aroudn the median for batting average

and they all seem to hit pretty spectacularly on 0-0.

"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams

by Valatan on May 4, 2008 7:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yep, folks, I know I’ve asked the “obvious”, but was wondering if there are any stats regarding hitting deep in the count.

by philbobilbo on May 4, 2008 9:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And that's what I kinda said above

almost everyone hits better on 0-0 than on 3-2. Of course, a batter swinging on an 0-0 pitch is probably seeing something he likes… but still…

"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams

by Valatan on May 4, 2008 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Plus, you can't strike out on 0-0

Though I guess you could look at BABIP to sidestep this, or to get a more complete picture

by Nate811 on May 6, 2008 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

not quite the same thing, but mlb.com gives you splits for

ahead in the count v. behind in the count.

E.g., Albert is hitting .353 when ahead in the count; .333 when behind. (note that Albert’s overall average is .359, so he must be hitting best when the count is even.).

Skip is hitting .357 when ahead; .200 when behind.

Does that give you a feel for it?

by tom s. on May 4, 2008 11:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs