I think my scorebook also reflects that Wainer only faced three over the minimum and walked none. I was thrilled that I got to go last night and witness that game. (Also thrilled that I started Wainwright in my roto league.) Between you and me, I think the Cardinals enjoy Stitch n Pitch night; perhaps the knowledge that a bunch of ladies in left field totally have your back with pointy sticks is empowering.

Heh. Maybe so.

some tidbits from my scorecard:

-We often focus on whether our own manager makes mistakes. But the strangest managerial decision happened in the other dugout last night. Down 3-1 and with a man at 2nd in the top of the 7th inning, Oswalt was coming to the plate. Neither I nor anyone around me could get why Cooper didn’t pinch hit for Roy. You’re just down 2 runs…you’ve got a chance to pull it to one. Furthermore, all Oswalt did was pitch the bottom part of the 7th. He was straight-relieved in the 8th inning. Of course, had he done so, Berkman’s blast might have been a bit more dramatic.

- The LOB problem seems to have disappeared. Of course, this may be a function of our current GOB (get on base) problem. The Cards only had 7 guys reach last night. 4 of those 7 were in the 1st inning.

- Duncan was a big part of the victory last night. As a function of Houston’s predominantly right-handed line-up, he had chance after chance (5 files on the night). Credit good positioning…but also good reads by Chris in the outfield (broke in nicely on several shallow flies). He made all the plays he should have. And of course, he handed the Cards the victory with his 2 RBI single in the first. Well done, Dunc.

- Loshe must have saw something in Wagonmaker’s start the night before. Other than the leadoff walk to Bourn in the first inning, Loshe’s line was unblemished by a base on balls. Walks are often overlooked, but the last two nights are a testament to avoiding them. Walks create scoring opportunities. Since Loshe was able to limit the men on the basepaths to those who hit their way on, he was able to attack the heart of the Astro’s lineup. So even when Lee catches him, it’s a relatively harmless soloshot…rather than a 3 run blast.

- Once again, we had a carbon copy of the Wainwright start in terms of the table setters. Bourn’s leadoff walk was the only time either the 1 or 2 hitter was on base.

- I think it’s increasingly obvious that the wrong pitcher is pitching the eigth and ninth. They should be flipped, in terms of talent. On the other hand, the closer position is artificial, and Perez might have more value to us as a true fireman (like Marmol is used in Chi-town).

- Glaus looks lost at the plate.

- I understood Tony’s thinking in starting LaRue…he’s killed Oswalt in my career. The problem is, LaRue doesn’t seem to be hitting anyone any more. And in that case, you can usually throw the micro stats out the window. Meanwhile, Bryan Anderson is tearing up AAA. Hmmmm…

- One point of confusion I had last night was the straight-sub of Miles for Izturus in the 6th. It was early for a defensive replacement (even though I think it was a great move given the way that game was shaping up)...and Tony avoids showing up his veterans. Injury?

- Ankiel seems a bit over-anxious at the plate.

- One nice thing about these two games, other than a few questionable calls, I haven’t noticed the umpires. And that’s as it should be.

D.GOOCH

I’ve been debating the wisdom of letting Oswalt hit for himself last night in the seventh, thought y’all might like to see a bit of this and possibly comment:

From the BOTB thread…

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sonicblast12
I can go either way, but at the very least it’s defensible. And with Wainwright on the hill, you bet your ** Tony lets him hit in that spot.

How much greater are the chances the pinch hitter drives in the run instead of Oswalt? Say he has a 15% chance of driving him in, a pinch hitter has a 25% chance of driving him in. Then they likely bring in a reliever with a 5.00 ERA who gives up .55 runs per appearance after Oswalt had been in cruise control for the previous five innings.

OK, well, let’s put this to the test. What exactly were the chances of a hit with a pinch hitter vs. going with Oswalt? Was it reasonable to trade that with Oswalt’s seventh inning.

First off, this isn’t your daddy’s Oswalt. If Cooper had brought in a reliever with a 5 e.r.a. he would have been bringing in a pitcher with nearly a run better ERA than Oswalt himself. That said, outside of the 1st inning, Oswalt seemed to have good stuff last night and was ‘crusing.’ It was certainly reasonable for Cooper to believe he could get another full inning out of Oswalt. Of course, that suggests also that he probably could have gotten an inning out of that 5 ERA guy of scoreless baseball in the 7th as well. OK, let’s look at his options.

There are 2 outs in the top of the 7th. Hunter Pence is on second (excellent speed) and with 2 outs, he’s going on the pitch. Outside of an infield hit, he’s almost certain to score on any hit. So what we need to do is look at the probability of a hit with Oswalt hitting versus another hitter.

Oswalt is a terrible hitter. Not just for a pitcher. For anyone. Oswalt has NEVER posted an OPS above 500 in any of his seasons. He is the picture of an automatic out. To avoid the small sample size problem, I’m going to use his 2007 hitting numbers to assess his probability of getting a hit in that instance. His line last season in the relevant categories:

.125 / .176

That’s right. he was a .125 hitter (he can’t even see the Mendoza line) and his OBP was .176. For our purposes, we can strictly translate those as empirical probabilities: Oswalt had a 12.5% chance of getting a hit, and a 5.1% chance of “flipping the order”...i.e. getting on base and moving on to the next batter. If you’d prefer to use Oswalt’s career numbers, then he’d have a 15.4% chance of getting a hit and a 3.9% of getting on base other than through a hit.

What were Cooper’s options on the bench?

Well, he has *everyone available on his bench. He had yet to make a move (indeed, would not replace any of his fielders in the entire game. Brocail was a straight relief move in the 8th). Let’s see what his options are there.

J.R. Towles, R
Geoff Blumm, SW
Mark Loretta, R
Jose Cruz, Jr. SW
Erstad, L

Cooper probably only chances a LaRussa move to the bullpen if he brings in Erstad (at this point Tony has both Villone & Flores available from the left side). Not exactly a great bench available. I’m going to use 3 year numbers here to avoid sample size issues again. Erstad is probably his best guy against a righty:

VERSUS RIGHTY
.283 .334 .382 .716
VERSUS LEFTY
.207 .273 .294 .567

Tony almost certainly goes to Villone or Flores here. Of course, forcing Tony to burn through one of his lefties earlier than he might could be a good in and of itself. But even if Tony does so, look at the improvement. We’ve gone to a 20.7% chance of getting a hit (and the run) and a 27.3% chance of extending the inning to the top of the lineup. That’s a near doubling of the chance of getting a hit (or a 40% increase if we use the career numbers) and its a near doubling of the chance of extending the inning to the top of the order.

But Cooper has another option I like: Mark Loretta. If Cooper goes to Loretta, Tony probably sticks with McLellan.

.281 .340 .349 .689

That’s Loretta’s 3 year line against Righties. Translated for our purposes, that’s a 28.1% chance of getting a hit and a 34% chance of getting on-base. We’ve now near-tripled our chances of getting a hit and we’ve more than doubled the chance of getting on base.

How important is that? Let’s look at the fangraph for the game:

http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?d…=0&season=2008

Even with the Berkman HR and Pence single, the Cardinals are still at a 75% WP for the game. What affect the Oswalt ground out? Look at what happens to the graph in the seventh inning. Our win probability increases to 86-88% as a result of Oswalt not bringing home Pence.

Now, in essence, the answer to our next question is already found in the graph. Look at the effect that Oswalt’s perfect seventh has on the Stro’s win probability. It is almost negligible. Maybe a 1% decline in WP as a result of Oswalt’s scoreless seventh inning. But let’s assume Oswalt is out. What were Cooper’s options for the rest of the game? Let’s first look at who he’d be facing in the bottom of the seventh:

LaRue
Pinch Hitter
Kennedy

That’s the bottom of the order! I submit that Cooper could have called on almost anyone in his bullpen and would likely have managed a scoreless seventh. LaRue has been a terrible hitter this season…and Kennedy is mired in a horrific slump. Tony went with Shumaker as his pinch hitter in the seventh, and Shu is also in about a month plus of relative ineffectiveness. Furthermore, Cooper has almost his entire bullpen available, as he only used one relief pitcher in the game the night before.

His options:

Brocail: 2.79 ERA
Brydak: 0.00 ERA
Moehler: 4.40 ERA
Valverde: 4.00 ERA
Vilarreal: 5.13 ERA
Wright: 5.00 ERA

I think Cooper could have frankly gone to any of his relievers in the seventh, saving Brocail for the eighth and Valverde for the save. This actually was an easier decision than I thought it was. You’re somewhere in the line of doubling or tripling your chance of getting a hit if you use a bench player in that situation rather than letting Oswalt hit for himself. In a situation where a failure to get a hit results in the probability of you losing increasing from 10-15%. The tradeoff is non-existant. You don’t gain anything from a scoreless seventh by Oswalt. And given the Cardinal hitters, you’re likely to get that scoreless seventh from almost any of your relievers. This is a no-brainer in my mind. You pinch hit for Oswalt (either Erstad or Loretta) and let the chips fall where they may in the bottom of the seventh. D.GOOCH