Should Molina hit 2nd?
This is the one player in the Card's lineup that never seems to be considered as a number 2 hitter. I was thinking of the 06 Mets and their monster lineup with Lo Duca in the 2 hole. Granted Molina has zero speed but is ability to put the ball in play would seem to be beneficial in front of Albert, and allows us to have more power in the back half of the order. Besides, right now it seems his quality at bats are wasted in front of Kennedy/ Pitcher. Thoughts....?
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I don't like it
One of the first rules of lineup construction is try to get your best hitters the most ABs. While Yadi is a better hitter than he was two years ago, he is still behind the following players in EQA this season:
Pujols
Ludwick
Ankiel
Glaus
Duncan
Schumaker
As I mentioned in another diary today, if you’re ok with giving up speed at the top of the lineup, I would rather trade Skip for whatever, bring up Mather, and roll with:
Glaus
Mather/Duncan
Pujols
Ludwick
Ankiel
Molina
Replacement level 2B of Tony’s choosing
P
Replacement level SS of Tony’s choosing
Nah.....
Yadi isn’t going to make anybody pay for pitching to him in front of Albert. I’d put somebody with a higher upside there. Duncan, Ludwick (assuming we had a true 4th place hitter), Ankiel fits there too.
I still like Glaus
in the second slot. Gets on base a ton, puts himself in scoring position, can do enough damage to bring the singles hitters around. In a whopping 161 PAs in his career Glaus’ line in the 2 spot is .301/.404/.684 with a cool 1.088 OPS. What’s the downside?
Duncan would be a good option against RHPs (if/when he returns to form), so maybe platoon Duncan and Glaus in the 2 spot. BTW, I was just looking at Duncan’s split by batting order position and they are kind of weird even for a small sample:
2nd .327/.397/.545
4th .150/.261/.150
5th .357/. 438/.643
6th .217/.419/.261
For his career he has hit in three different spots at least 100 PAs: 2nd, 4th, and 6th. The only good numbers he has put up have been in the 2nd spot: .281/.357/.539.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
I'm on board.
I have been advocating giving this a shot for a couple of weeks. His OBP is good enough for the slot, and I look at his speed differently from most of the nay-sayers. I think his speed is going to cause him to occupy 1B more often with Pujols hitting behind him. This will help force pitchers to throw to Pujols. I also think his speed is less detrimental hitting in FRONT of XBHs rather than behind them. He is virtually guaranteed to be wasted on the bases in front of 3-4 consecutive singles hitters such as the current 8-2 hitters are.
I received pretty much the same “it’s unconventional and we need speed there” responses. I think this team is fairly weak offensively, and that it screams out for unconventional.
No.
We need someone who can go from 1st to 3rd on AP’s single. :)
I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. ~Bill Veeck
no also
double play waiting to happen. need somebody who can hit and run, as well as execute the hit and run. most important is to have someone on base when albert bats, preferably on first base.
If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, perhaps you haven't grasped the situation!
Well, Molina is probably the best player on the team
at the hit and run and if we stop using all these damn LHB in the #2 spot, maybe LaRussa will finally let our speedy top of the order guys (Ryan, Skip, Barton) steal some bases.
by Hardcore Legend on May 29, 2008 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Bad idea...
I don’t mean to bash Skip all the time, but people have an unrealistic view of his abilities. He’s not speedy. In 7 minor league seasons, he stole all of 89 bases, with a 65% success rate.
Ryan’s a little better, 78 in 6 seasons with an 80% success rate.
But of the three, only Barton is speedy, 82 in 3 seasons, although only with a 75% success rate.
Start Ludwick
This is probably mangerial bias, at least partially
Colby Rasmus leads the redbirds with 6 SB in 53 games. At that pace, he’d steal about 100 bases in six 152 game seasons. And that’s Memphis’s BEST base stealer. Shane Robinson down in springfield is showing a little more base stealing aggressiveness, with 10 SB in 42 games. Regardless, I think the organization is either not training these guys to steal bases, or not giving them the green light while they’re in the minors.
It’s probably not a coincidence that Barton has over about twice as many tries as Ryan, even with the caveat that he is faster than Brendan.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
Yaddiers so slow...
Darryl Porter’s speed was once described by Herzog saying that he takes just enuff of a lead-off at 1st base, that if he passes out, he’ll fall on the bag! Same true for Molina, as he was breaking out of his 0-fer last night finally.
Ryan and Barton leading off (bring in Willie to coach a few days!) are my first choices with Ankiel in the #2 spot, the only legit power bat that can also go 1st to 3rd on an Albert single besides Ludwick. Id rather see Ankiel in the 6th hole. Rasmus might fill that #2 hole for a long time someday?
Mather had 19 stolen bases in 06/07 w/o getting caught compared to Duncans 2 in the same period with a 50% success rate.
.352 is LOW.
I don’t see how you call that low, and that has dropped from .370 during his current slump. I admit he hits into quite a few DPs, but could that be a factor of hitting behind slow, power hitters? If you put speed in front of him and XB power behind him, then IMO you are going to help minimize the number of DPs that he is involved in. I still think the idea is being dismissed because it is unconventional, and I don’t think there are many people thinking outside of the stat box on this one.
When Stats Lie VOL 2.0
I understand that some may argue because he’s such a good contact hitter he’d be a good 2 hitter….but no. no. no. no. no. no. Sometimes you have to use common sense over stats. This is a terrible idea for too many reasons to name.
"Ding-dong the wicked witch is dead!" - Wayne Hagin after the cardinals snapped a losing streak
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on May 30, 2008 3:12 PM EDT reply actions
Common sense is not so common.
It is also typically used when a person doesn’t want to make a good argument. Explain to me what makes you believe the OBP numbers he is putting up are a lie. Not to mention, the majority of my argument would fly against the typical statistical knowledge, as Molina’s EQA numbers would seem to prove. My argument has always been made on the fact that he makes contact, doesn’t strike out often, and that I think there is a possiblity that you could best hide his lack of foot speed in the number 2 hole. The first two can be backed by statistics, but it is simply a gut hypothesis that brings me to the third point. I did take the time to try to flesh out the reasoning behind that hypothesis. Connorkt did try to identify some reasons he thought this might work, also. The least you could do is make an effort to name reasons better than common sense.
jeezus effin c....
First off, I didn’t mean that his OBP was a lie. I meant that the fact that his contact rate and OBP rate are high does not mean he would fill the role of the 2 hitter competenly. In this lineup with Albert hitting 3rd, you are going to want to have a dangerous hitter in the 2 hole that is going to see better pitches as a direct result of Albert looming on deck. Molina isn’t by any stretch of anyone’s imagination a “dangerous” hitter. He’s an okay hitter for a catcher and thats about it. In fact, he currently is sitting at a .370 slugging percentage which is more like .350 for his career. Furthermore, his career OBP is .310. Thats a career OPS of roughly .660—compare that with Aaron Miles, who also doesn’t strike out much, who has a career OPS of roughly .680 and you can easily tell we are not talking about someone who is gonna be feared hitting infront of Albert. While I agree that Molina has seemed to improve significantly over the last 2 years, he still doesn’t hit for power. You make the argument that you can best hide his footspeed at the 2 spot, but that is actually where he is going to be the MOST exposed. Albert came into this season averaging 42 doubles per season. Let me ask you, how many times do you think Molina can score from 1st (which if he made it on base is where he’s going to be the VAST majority of the time) on a double out of 42 tries? I would assume around half or less. How many times do you think Ankiel can score from first on a double in 42 tries? I would assume nearly every time. Also, if Molina is on first, the opposing team will be even more inclined to pitch around Albert because of the fact that pushing Molina to 2B still means we need at least a double to score, A single won’t score him from 2nd as often as it would say…i don’t know…anyone else on the team. Here yet another reason…assume molina is on first with 1 out or less…Albert doubles (molina due to poor speed doesn’t score)....that gives you 2nd and 3rd 1 out or less. Ludwick hits a moderately deep fly out…molina can’t score again…because of poor speed. Game on the line situations with albert or luddy up…your going to have to pinch run. This will also mean that you’ll have to do a double switch unless you want the Mighty Jason Larue as your new 2 man. Which means the 2 spot will either become the pitchers spot or you’ll have to sub out another fielder. His lack of speed has suddenly become the focal point of the entire game, whereas if you had ankiel in there instead there would be no concern about his ability to score on a single up the middle. you get to leave molina in the game and you don’t have to do all this damn juggling with the lineup with a series of pinch hitters in front of albert. There are waaaaay too many situations that could come up where this is gonna be a problem. Hitting him infront of kennedy, ryan, izturis, and the pitcher these problems don’t crop up nearly as often due to their lack of extra base hits. All of these guys are singles hitters, where as you want to clog up the bases with him while Albert, Ludwick, Ankiel, Mather and Glaus are mashing balls into the gap. It wouldn’t work. There’s not a manager in the league that would bat him there in any line-up in all of baseball. Its just common sense. You have to put a power guy infront of albert so he gets big fat juicy pitches that he can hammer over the wall. If I’m not mistaken this has been a HIGHLY successful way of doing business for the cardinals since he broke into the league.
"Ding-dong the wicked witch is dead!" - Wayne Hagin after the cardinals snapped a losing streak
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on May 31, 2008 4:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Some of your points are valid, but ...
I think many of them are overstated. Molina may have some situations where he won’t score on a sac fly or a Pujols 2B, but I haven’t seen that many times where he hasn’t been able to score. I’m also looking at THIS team. You know, the one that keeps putting Adam Kennedy and Aaron Miles in the 2 hole. They of the .579 and .703 OPS. Hell, even Ryan is only providing a .657 OPS, and he gets to hit in front of Albert. Compare that to Molina’s .725. Nothing exciting, but comparatively …
At the time I started advocating it, Molina had a .370 OBP. You had a team whose only hope of driving in a run was Pujols, and they were simply pitching around him because no one could protect him. The best you could do was clog the bases in front of him to try to force them to pitch to him. If you put your “dangerous” hitter in front of him, then they won’t pitch to Albert. If the guy is hitting 2Bs in front of Albert, then the BB is automatic.
Now, you have Ludwick starting to provide some damage, and he is getting regular playing time. You still can’t count on Glaus to provide anything, Ankiel has been hit or miss, and we don’t know what we’ll get out of Mather, yet.
I still disagree with your point about his footspeed, and here is the case. Right now, you are putting a singles hitter behind slow power hitters, and following him up with light-hitting, relative speedsters. That clogs the bases with Molina much worse than if he is hitting in front of guys with XB power. The power hitters aren’t going to find a way score from 1st on a deep single (which Molina is more likely to hit than anyone I’ve ever seen), and guys like Ryan, Kennedy, Barton, Miles, etc. are not going to be able to stretch a 1B into a 2B hitting behind Molina.
I’m not saying the idea is perfect, but neither is this team offensively. I could see the following lineup, as well.
Schumaker/Barton
Ankiel
Pujols
Ludwick
Glaus/Mather (depends on how Mather starts doing)
Mather/Glaus
Molina
Pitcher (grumble)
Miles/Ryan
What I don’t want to see is a continuation of the Schumaker/Miles or Schumaker/Ryan or Ryan/Miles combination in front of Pujols. The two light-hitters in a row with lower OBPs than what Molina is providing seems to be pretty silly.
I figured you could make an argument if you tried. The flippant “it’s common sense” argument is dismissive and irritating.
In this lineup with Albert hitting 3rd, you are going to want to have a dangerous hitter in the 2 hole that is going to see better pitches as a direct result of Albert looming on deck.
”...we [Sabernomics] are convinced that protection is a myth; it doesn’t exist…”

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