2008 Draft Preview- The Wish List

Anyone else see Jay Bruce’s debut and think that should be Colby?

Zach Collier HS OF from California and Ryan Perry —the other SP from U. of Arizona.

Yes, Braden…I felt exactly the same way:
http://images.sportsline.com/u/ap/photos/MOJR101052721_1024×768.jpg

just a reminder.

Everyone has done their research and has their opinions about what direction the Cards should take. Many have a particular player they are certain is the best fit. But what can we reasonably expect to get with the 13th overall pick? If history is a reliable guide then the 13th pick may not be terribly lucky. Of the last twenty number 13s, the three most recent are still in the minors, seven retired without ever making it to the big leagues, no pitcher has a career ERA+ over 100 and only three position players have a career OPS+ over 100.

The good news is that mixed in with the flotsam and jetsam were such gems as Paul Konerko, Casey Kotchman, and, drum roll please, Manny Ramirez. Statistically speaking, the best pitcher taken in the last twenty years was our own Donovan Osborne (what a scary thought!), but I suppose Bill Bray still has a lot left in him.

I always like to look at drafts to see what might have been, so here are a few interesting tidbits. When the Expos/Nationals picked Bill Bray in 2004 the next two picks were Billy Butler and Stephen Drew. The Phillies, picking two picks after the Cardinals selected Shaun Boyd in 2000, chose a second baseman from UCLA named Chase Utley. The next pick in 1998 after the illustrious J.M. Gold was our own Jeff Weaver. Fortunately for all the Yankee haters out there, the next pick after the Yanks chose Matt Drews was a stud high shool slugger by the name of Derek Lee. Current Cardinal Ron Villone was the next pick after the Phillies took Chad McConnell in 1992. My personal favorite is that after the Cubbies took Doug Glanville in 1991 the very next pick was none other than Manny Ramirez. I don’t want to think about Manny at Wrigley 81 games a year. Finally, when the Pirates drafted a high school shortstop named Austin Manahan in 1988 the Seattle Mariners followed up by snatching Tino Martinez.

but reading your description of schlereth, he seems like someone who could be a great pick. But if he’s that good, why is he in the bullpen in college, and how hard would it be to move from the bullpen to the rotation in the minors? If he’s been relatively “protected” in college by not throwing as many pitches/innings as the typical college starter, wouldn’t his arm be fresher or “younger”, as they say about Motte and Perez?

BTW, Schlereth’s dad is a former NFL player and ESPN color commentator (I didn’t recognize the name, but all the fat ESPN football guys look alike to me). Anyway, Daniel Schlereth (the one in the draft) has some interesting articles on espn.com about pitching in college. Seems like a good kid.

Scheppers at one point seemed like he might be a steal, but IIRC Will Carroll or someone in a similar position (can’t find the article now, but it was linked at BTF) reported last week that his “stress fracture”, which is supposedly very easy to recover from, is more likely “something else”. if we consider him, we better do our due diligence.

Great job with these draft articles, btw.

My Choices at 13

Jake Odorizzi- RHP/SS, Highland HS- Highland, IL

I’m actually a latecomer to the Odorizzi bandwagon. Several of the posters over at Future Redbirds have been talking this guy up for a while. I admit, I wasn’t a fan. As time has gone on, though, I’ve read more about the kid, and seen some video of
him playing, and I’ve slowly come around.

Before the season, Odorizzi looked like a 2nd or 3rd rounder. He’s had some serious helium this spring, though, rising up to consideration as a 1st round pick. He throws two fastballs, a four seamer in the 90-94 range and a two seamer in the upper 80s, touching 92. He’s got a hammer curve, and an improving slider. His changeup isn’t much to speak of, but he’s got plenty of time.

At 6’2” 170lbs., Odorizzi has plenty of room to grow, hopefully increasing his already impressive repertoire. He also plays a tremendous shortstop, with smooth actions in the field and a plus bat to go along with above average speed.

Odorizzi has that almost ridiculous athleticism that reminds me a bit of Michael Main from last year’s draft. Main was the RHP/OF from a Texas High School that the Rangers ended up drafting at 22, I believe. I was big on the Main bandwagon last year, and I’ve come to think Odorizzi would be a great pick. He might be seen as a bit of reach at 13, as most boards still have him in the latter half of the first round, but I think this kid has a chance to be special, and I think the Cards would do well to at least take a good look at him.

Tim Melville- RHP, Holt HS, Wentzville, MO

Both Melville and Odorizzi are basically local kids, and the Cardinals have had both in to Busch Stadium to look at them firsthand, so they’re at least both on the radar. Melville entered the year as the top prep pitcher in the draft, but has seen his stock take a hit. His velocity has been inconsistent, though he’s improved as the season has gone on. There are questions about his arm action, too. Personally, I still believe in his talent, and I’ve seen much worse arm actions. Hell, Gerrit Cole is projected to go very high, and he may have the single ugliest arm action I’ve ever seen.

Melville is a big time talent. What mechanical issues he has are probably correctable. He’s very similar to Phil Hughes, the high school righthander the Cards passed on in 2004 to take Chris Lambert. We’ll see what they do now, but I think Melville has a chance to be a very good pitcher down the road. I like Odorizzi slightly better at this point, just because I really like his delivery, but Melville is still very high on my personal wish list.

Casey Kelly- SS, Sarasota HS, Sarasota FLA

Kelly is one of the more interesting players in the draft. He’s another guy with some real helium this year, as his bat has begun to make some real strides. Defensively, Kelly offers a solid package, with an above average arm and graceful actions in the field. He’s big for a shortstop, at 6’4” and 190 lbs., but his actions suggest that he should be able to stay at short. Of course, third or second base are options too. Kelly’s ultimate value lies in whether or not you think he’ll hit. I think he will. He fits the mold of the new shortstop, much in the vein of a Tulowitzki and his ilk. Kelly’s also a pitcher, but doesn’t really project as one beyond his current level. Of course, the Cardinals have taken shortstops early in the draft two of the last three years, (Tyler Greene in the 1st round in 2005; Kozma last year in the 1st) but Kelly may very well be worth the pick.

Brett DeVall- LHP, Niceville HS, FLA

DeVall I’m a little torn on. I really like the kid’s delivery, and what he brings to the table, but I don’t like him quite as well as some of the other players I’m listing here.

DeVall is a very mature, very intelligent pitcher. He’s not overpowering, as his fastball is typically in the high 80s to low 90s range, but he has solid command already and a great idea of what he’s doing. He has a decent curve that needs some work, and a dynamite changeup. His delivery is smooth and easy, without a whole lot of extra stuff in his arm action. Unfortunately, he’s probably already maxed out physically, at 6’4” 220, which means there isn’t a whole lot more velocity to come. He could still add a tick or two as he continues to develop and mature, but he’s by no means a projectability pick. Still, he has a chance for three average to above pitches with great command. Bottom line, I like DeVall a little more if it were later in the draft, but he intrigues me. Hell, maybe it’s just that I want to see what would happen if the Cards drafted another high school lefty from Florida…

Aaron Hicks- OF/RHP, Woodrow Wilson HS, CA (I believe it’s in the Long Beach area)

Simply put, Hicks may be the most freakishly athletic player in the draft. He’s a two way threat, pitching in the mid 90s with a nasty breaking ball, but most scouts agree he has a much better chance of making it as an outfielder. Hicks has well above average speed, decent power potential, a plus plus arm, the ability to switch hit, and a baseball rat mentality. What he doesn’t have is polish. And when I say he lacks polish, I mean he lacks polish like a coffee table left in a swamp for twenty or thirty years. Hicks is extremely raw, both as a pitcher and a position player, but the tools are just too great to ignore. He’s definitely risky, but the payoff could be huge. What can I say? I’m a sucker for upside.

Those are the five players I would really like in the first round, in the order that I like them. There are five other players I’m really interested in in the draft, at other times than the first round.

Tanner Scheppers- RHP, Fresno State University

Scheppers was cruising right along this season, flying up draft boards, getting press as the best pitcher in the draft not named Matusz or Crow, and then suddenly he got hurt. Scheppers was shut down a few weeks back with shoulder pain, which was then diagnosed as a stress fracture. Since then, however, there’s been some debate as to exactly what kind of injury he really has. It’s all very confusing.

Either way, Scheppers’ stock has taken a pretty serious hit. Before the injury, lots of people were just hoping that Scheppers would somehow fall to the Cardinals. Now it looks as if there’s almost no chance he goes in the first round. There’s just too much uncertainty with him being hurt.

Scheppers throws hard- his fastball ranges in the 92-95 range pretty easily- and at 6’4”, 200lbs., he’s got some room to continue filling out. What’s more, Scheppers was originally a shortstop and has only been pitching about two years, so there’s definite reason to believe there could be even more in the tank. He’s also got a plus slider, but not a whole lot to speak of changeup wise.

I was lukewarm on Scheppers before he got hurt, just because I fear the raw college pitcher in the first round, (Paging Drs. Lambert and Ottavino, please) but, strangely enough, I like him more now that he’s hurt. He could now be an ideal buy low candidate if one was certain the injury wasn’t a long term concern. Of course, I can’t say one way or the other, but he could be a steal if he falls very much, which has a very good chance of happening now.

I don’t like the idea of taking Daniel Schlereth anywhere near the first 3 rds. I want the first couple of rounds to be based on entirely high ceiling guys.. and you know, it’s getting to the point where I don’t think the bullpen is a problem.

Hicks isn’t a baseball player yet. He wouldn’t be anywhere near St. Louis for atleast 5 years. Think of Daryl Jones.

I’ve heard Melville has a very strong commitment to some university. Forget which one it is.

I’m surprised you didn’t mention Christian Friedrich. I hope that the Cardinals take him. Think of a guy with a Zito like curve who should go somewhere around 10 to 15.

Also, read my hitters breakdown on the Fan Posts = )

Daniel Schlereth plays the pitcher position for the University of Arizona Wildcats baseball team. Daniel Schlereth throws the baseball for the University of Arizona from the lefthanded side and from that lefthanded side he will throw the baseball in the middle ninety per hour range reaching as high as ninety seven miles per hour. Daniel Schlereth does not enter the game at the starting pitcher position, rather Daniel Schlereth plays the relief position role on the University of Arizona Wildcats. Now, walks are a problem for Daniel Schlereth but this guy also misses bats throwing from the lefthanded side. This guy will enter the Major League Baseball draft this June of Two Thousand Eight and the organization that drafts Daniel Schlereth’s rights should see him at the Major League level in their organization fairly quickly because he throws hard from the relief position and throws from the lefthanded side.

We can’t draft that dude just because I can’t stand how Marky boy makes sure to take the absolute longest way to say any phrase. Mark if you happen to google and read this, for the love of god say “NFL” and not “National Football League”!

Jimenez called up. Parisi to pitch Pineiro scheduled start on Saturday.

That’s the guy I suspect will get picked, if he is available. He seems to fit the typical profile. Goold mentioned something about a connection between the Tulane staff and the organization. I took that to be somewhat of a hint. I think Goold does a pretty good job at getting info…remember him talking about the organization’s high regard for McClellan and Parisi over the winter.

So I’m taking the liberty of reading between the lines on that comment and believing Shooter Hunt may be the choice, if available, but I am not sure how likely that really is anymore.

8gb to 5fo, 3 hits.

Seems to be getting better every year/level. I think he and Jaime Garcia are going to make for some tough organizational decisions next year.

looks like MEM is taking after the big club

21 LOB thru 7

yikes

but Ryan ludwick deserves to be in the all star game and yet he is not even in the top 15 outfielders in vote getting. quite sad

his nickname is “eggs.” and i mean immediately.

Doubt he’d be around in the sandwich round but I like everything I’ve read about him. I’m a big fan of young pitchers (pre-University) concentrating on getting outs by changing speed and location instead of relying on breaking pitches. Sounds like he’s kept the wear on his arm to a minimum and is ready to develop fast as a pro.

I’ll be following his career wherever he lands, but it’d be outstanding if he were the Cardinals second pick.

Brendan Ryan is leading off and Barton’s in the lineup.

I hope we win.

but I wouldn’t mind if G. Beckham fell to 13 either