Solo HR Percentage & the '08 Cardinals

by bgh on May 22, 2008 7:44 PM EDT

I had the wonderful fortune of attending my first two Cardinal games in Busch III since 2006 this past weekend, on Friday and Saturday. After the bats took the night off Friday night , they awoke Saturday, whacking three baseballs over the wall , three solo blasts. Leaving the Stadium still jubilant over Ludwick's second solo HR, the walkoff shot that just cleared the fence, I thought to myself, "Man, we sure seem to hit a lot of solo shots."

I then thought, "I need to see if this observation is, in fact, true, or if I'm just projecting today's game onto the season."

Well, it is, in fact, true. I've done some admittedly not in-depth numbers crunching because I was curious about just how many MLB homers are of the solo variety and, the flip side of that coin, just how many plate more than just the batter. I only analyzed the data of the 2008, 2007, 2006, and 2005 seasons for home runs. The reason being that the league totals were so similar, I assumed that they would simply continue to be and I have to meet a friend for a beer here in a little bit. Let me begin with the totals for all of the bigs.

MLB Solo HR %

2005: 5,017 total HR / 2,842 solo HR / 56.65 solo HR %

2006: 5,386 total HR / 3,089 solo HR / 57.35 solo HR %

2007: 4,957 total HR / 2,812 solo HR / 56.73 solo HR %

2008: 1,285 total HR / 738 solo HR / 57.43 solo HR %*

*through the games completed on May 21

You see what I mean. It would appear that the league average for Solo HR % is somewhere between 56.5% and 57.5%. For the range between the MLB club with the lowest solo HR % to the club with the highest, here you go:

2005 Range: 43.32% to 66.67%

2006 Range: 50.95% to 62.41%

2007 Range: 50.27% to 65.54%

2008 Range: 39.13% to 73.33%*

*through the games completed on May 21

Not suprisingly, there is fluctuation and the young season allows for some very extreme outliers. The most extreme outlier above what one would expect is that of the Giants, who have hit a whopping 73.33% share of their home runs as solo. Number two behind San Fran? That's right, the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals have hit 43 homers this year, with 31 of those being solo shots, or, 72.09% of home runs struck by the Cardinals are solo.

There is no reason to suspect that this percentage share will not fall by at least 8 to 10% as the 2008 season plays out. This should help drive up those run totals, especially given out knack for getting on base.

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Nice work

So, compared to an average team, we have 8 more solo homers than you would expect. Let’s WAG and say the average non-solo homer brings home 2.4 runs or so, so we should have (2.4 – 1) * 8 = 11.2 more runs this season, or about 1 more win.

by mikedallas45 on May 22, 2008 7:58 PM EDT 0 recs

yes, very nice work

I would never have guessed the solo HR rate to be that high. And I guess the basic reason is that pitchers tend to challenge hitters more with no-one on base. Or it might just be the pool of opportunity (that is, by far the largest number of at-bats HAPPEN with the bases empty.)
I’d be willing to bet, tho, that the home run “batting average” is higher with men on base. Fewer successes, yes, but divided by much fewer opportunities. Would be interesting to know.

Segue: without ever seeing proof, I have always believed that the highest overall batting average as far as PITCH COUNT goes is the 0-0 pitch. You would think it was a cripple pitch, namely 2-0 or 3-1, but I believe 0-0 beats them both. Would love to see proof.

Melding the two… I wonder what the highest success rate for home runs is as far as pitch count is concerned. I would assume (in order) it would be 3-1, then 3-2, then 2-0.

by the Tewk on May 23, 2008 12:41 AM EDT 0 recs

on the first pitch of an at bat

in 2007 the average MLB payer hit:

.344/.349/.551 (.901 OPS)

Full splits available here. I’m pretty shocked by how FEW 3-0 home runs were hit in ‘07. 23 in all of MLB? But hitters were still .394/.964/.805 (1.769).

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on May 23, 2008 2:09 AM EDT up 0 recs

I feel bad

for the five batters who grounded into double plays on a 3-0 count last year.

by liam on May 23, 2008 7:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

Pretty good work

Another idea would be to look at each team’s average runs per homerun; (number of runs scored via HR)/(total # HR) and see how we stack up to the rest of the league. I wouldn’t even know where to start this observation, nor do I have the time or the energy to do a very decent job of it.

I wonder how many standard deviations we are above the average %solo of the whole league?

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on May 23, 2008 2:06 AM EDT 0 recs

Crazy.... :=8/

What’s crazy to me about all this is the fact that the Cards currently lead the bigs in OBP (On Base Percentage) at .371. See, you have to have runners on base to score ahead of you to avoid solo home runs – you’d think one reason why we hit a lot of solo shots is because our team OBP is low. But nooooooo – we’re gettin’ to first base faster than Aaron Carter at a teenybopper sock hop (hee heee….). So, how to accownt for this discrepency? I dunno, I’m scratching the spots of my back trying to figure this one out.
:=8/

"We're against society, authority, and anything else that ends in y"
- Johnny Rotten

by The MooCow on May 23, 2008 1:29 PM EDT 0 recs

Great question

I doubt there is one silver bullet to explain this discrepency. It’s probably a combination of more careful pitching with runners on, perhaps bad luck in not getting as many mistake pitches or not depositing mistake pitches in the bleachers, taking what the pitcher gives you, colder weather, etc.

by bgh on May 23, 2008 2:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

Some guesses

This is conjecture based on annecdodal evidence…
1. Our power hitters being walked until reaching our weak hitters – This produces more on bases and less multi-HRs.
2. Related to 1, El Hombre being walked and not challenged. IIRC, his walk rate is higher this year, but I am guessing that his walk rate when runners are on is disproportionally higher?
3. Glaus hitting doubles instead of jacks (not that I am complaining about this).
4. Ank hitting solo dingers and not coming through in the clutch? What’s his clutch #’s
Sorry. Too lazy to check all the aforementioned hypotheses.

born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red

by totalloser on May 26, 2008 5:55 AM EDT up 0 recs

This is too weird.......

Because it even happens with the AAA Redbirds. Joe Mather and Anthony Reyes each hit solo homeruns in the Memphis/Nashville game this evening….....

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on May 25, 2008 10:21 PM EDT 0 recs

Update May 25

Since the initial post, the Cards have whacked three homers, with two (both last night) being solo shots. Their Solo HR % is now 33/46, or, 71.74%.

by bgh on May 28, 2008 9:13 AM EDT 0 recs

With Yadi's 3-run blast last night vs. the Nats...

The Cardinals now have 51 homers overall this season (which is not very many, ranking for 20th in the bigs). 36 of those have been solo shots. Their Solo HR % has continued to inch downward even if it is still extremely high at 70.58%.

As an aside, doesn’t Yadi’s homer demonstrate the dramatic effect of a mult-run homer? A 3-run bomb-boom!-just like that, and it is a big, 4-run inning. No stringing hits together, relying on Izturis, Miles, the pitcher, etc. Hopefully as the heat and humidity kick in we get a few more of these from the mashers in the heart of the order (and Yadi, if he’d be so kind, not that I’m holding my breath).

by bgh on Jun 4, 2008 9:15 AM EDT 0 recs