Izturis v Renteria, Eckstein, Ryan
by CardsWin on May 20, 2008 3:02 AM EDT
28 comments
John Mozeliak and Jeff Luhnow deserve kudos for their assessment of available shortstops last winter. Izturis, as projected by his performance the last time he was healthy and playing full time, is turning out to have been the best SS available when the Cardinals let Eckstein walk..
Current OPS ranking of the four most recent Cardinal shortstops (primary position):
- Izturis .695, 6 strikeouts in 118 AB's
- Ryan .689, 8 strikeouts in 58 AB's
- Renteria .650, 20 strikeouts in 156 AB's
- Eckstein .637, 12 strikeouts in 118 AB's
Izturis not only has the best OPS of the four as of today but he also has the best strikeout ratio by a large margin.
Izturis also leads the group with 3 SB's but he has been caught 3 times and he has twice as many AB's as Ryan.
Renteria leads the group in HR's but with only 3.
Defensively, Izturis has the best zone rating and scouts rate him the best fielder among the four.
Izturis, who will still be only 28 by the end of this season, is five years younger than Eckstein and Renteria (both 33 by end of season). Ryan will still be 26 by the end of this season. Brendan is only 2 years and a month younger than Cesar.
Plus,
- Renteria's salary this year is 10M
- Eckstein is getting 4.5M
- Izturis is getting 2.85M
- Ryan gets $393k
In addition,
- Ryan still needs more seasoning.
- Eckstein is more and more injury prone.
- Renteria cost valuable prospects and over three times as much in salary.
Out of the 40 shortstops listed in the MLB batting stats by ESPN.com, Izturis' current OPS of .695 now ranks 24th, just ahead of Boston's Julio Lugo.
No doubt azruavatar will say that Cesar's performance is "unsustainable". We'll have a chance to test that hypothesis with a better sample size at the midpoint of the season.
But for now, considering Izturis' fielding excellence, his performance so far this season should be considered at least average overall among MLB shortstops, a lot better than the great majority of fans and sportswriters were predicting.
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what defensive metric are you using?
Defensively, Izturis has the best zone rating and scouts rate him the best fielder among the four.
By RZR, (what I normally think of when I hear the phrase “zone rating”), Brendan ryan is significantly better than izturis. Izturis has made 90 out of 103 plays in his zone (.874), while ryan has made 21 of 21 (1.00). Ryan has made 4 OOZ plays in 77 innings while izturis has made 15 in 300.1 innings, so they are each making an OOZ play every 20 innings or so.
David Eckstein is 63 for 72 (.875), with 10 OOZ in 257 innings, effectively tied. So of the four, only renteria (.808) has been worse by RZR.
It’s also pretty unfair to pick a guy who hits one home run a year and use his OPS the day he hits a home run to make a point, especially when he edges out his competition by .006 points of OPS ;)
And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...
by SleepyCA on May 20, 2008 4:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Selective statistics
As of two days ago, Izturis’ OPS was sitting at .643 with Ryan at .655. The HR pushed that up 50 points, while Ryan was only able to jump 34 points. Both are significant jumps in a very small sample size. I got here before azruavatar, so I get to say that HR makes this an outlier first. Ha Ha.
I think your point proves that any of these guys would be making us cringe right now. Eckstein was broke, that’s why he had to go. Renteria will probably regress back to a norm, but we know how mental he is. The fact that they are losing is probably affecting his performance. He has always let a failing in one part of his game bleed into all the others. Ryan is unproven, and he and Izturis are pretty similar right now. Ryan has the BA, but his OBP tells you that his plate discipline has been poor. Izturis has had good plate discipline, but he is a better bet to walk on base than hit to get there.
I wish we had a real SS, but the defense of Izturis has been nice.
by etp_stl on May 20, 2008 6:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
well
I must admit that I am quite pleased with Izturus. I would like to have a better stick at SS, but after the way he played this spring I am OK with him for now.
by nybirdfan on May 20, 2008 9:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
ok
But look at Christian Guzman and the season that he’s having—anybody see that coming after he hit below the Mendoza line most of the last two years?
And of those players listed below Izturis right now, sir, I really don’t think you’d be crazy enough in your Cesarification to take him over JJ Hardy, Khalil Greene, or a healthy Troy Tulowitzki now would you?
Also, the Cardinals probably could have traded for Clint Barmes this offseason since he was not in the Rockies plans - he’s costing them about as much as Ryan is costing us. He’s about the same age as Izturis and he’s hitting WAY over his head - whereas Cesar is hitting right at his average for his career prior to when he got hurt.
All in all, he’s a good (not great) defensive SS with a putrid (but not as much lately) stick. There are better players out there that would create more positive win shares from that position.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on May 20, 2008 9:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
maybe there is better talent out there
but when you look at the production we’ve received from iz2 vs what he is costing us, you have to say it is a pretty good deal as a stopgap at shortstop. i don’t think anyone plans on having iz2 for 3-5 years but i’m sure we’re all glad we have him this year vs. renteria/eckstein.
by lopey986 on May 22, 2008 4:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
by that rationale...
look at the production that Colorado is getting from Clint Barmes for the 1/4 price, and that the Birds could be getting, possibly, from Brendan Ryan at 1/4 the price.
I’m glad to have him instead of Eckstein, but I wasn’t a guy who wanted to bring Eck back either. There was never a chance Renteria was coming back here last offseason, so I don’t consider that to be a viable option to discuss when comparing players.
The questios is, with your man-love for all things Cesar, would you keep him at this price or would you rather have someone who is a true stop-gap that can show some actual production in the SS spot.
I’m not upset with his play thus far, but if the team is in the hunt and has a chance to upgrade at that position with someone who can bat leadoff (think Furcal), than I think the team has to look at making a move.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on May 22, 2008 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh no doubt
i was not in any way excited by the iz2 signing, i was actually an advocate of giving ryan the full time short stop duties despite his questionable defense. and obviously if we have the opportunity to add a guy like furcal as long as he doesn’t cost us the farm, then yes we should make that move, but it seems unlikely the dodgers will part with furcal since they obviously feel they have the pieces in place for a championship run.
i’m not saying iz2 is the best shortstop and in no way do i have a man crush on him, but when you compare his production vs. cost to that of renteria/eckstein i say it is a good deal we made. i’d still like to see ryan get the lions share of starts at short, but larussa loves his veterans.
by lopey986 on May 23, 2008 4:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
According to Bernie's Sunday notes
Izturis has a revised RZR of .874, second only to Atlanta’s Escobar among full time NL shortstops. Some of us supported his signing strictly as a defensive improvement, and so far his offense has been a plus. I, for one, am happy his offense is better than I thought it would be, and his defense has definitely improved the staff ERA.
by vinniefromjersey on May 20, 2008 9:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lets not go overboard
I am perfectly content with Iz2 as our SS. Our infield defense is SO much better than it was last year. I credit the Cards for believing in Iz2 while he struggled with his confidence in ST. The guy can flat out play SS. With Kennedy’s knee holding up, the Cards are very strong up the middle defensively.
Offensively, I agree that cherrypicking your stats the morning after Iz2 hits a right handed HR (a rare feat) is very self-serving to your argument, however.
by silent_bob on May 20, 2008 10:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
what seasoning does Ryan need?
I don’t necessarily disagree but the statement is just kind of sitting there without any qualification or explanation.
by azruavatar on May 20, 2008 11:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
PS -- I don't necessarily think it's unsustainable
Cersar’s walk rate is pretty extreme given the last few years but his batted ball data suggests that he might be hitting into some bad luck a bit—although he’s consistently had a lower than expected BABIP, not sure what’s going on there.
by azruavatar on May 20, 2008 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the "seasoning" seems to be
TLR’s reluctance to play him. With Izturis playing well he is less likely to get anything resembling seasoning. All TLR has said is he “plays young,” but how does he overcome that? My hope for Ryan is at 2B. He could be an offensive and defensive improvement there.
by vinniefromjersey on May 20, 2008 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
don't give your hopes up
we still have AK for another year and TLR loves Miles.
On with the (good) youth movement!
by aet15 on May 20, 2008 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ryan's OPS is .666 after May 24 game vs. Padres
I didn’t think the observation that Ryan needed seasoning needed explanation, since it seems to be the clear consensus among Cardinal officials and analysts. But it’s a fair question, AZ.
Ryan’s fielding is not consistent enough yet to be a starting ML SS, say the Cardinal manager and coaches.
Ryan makes the kind of mental errors that very inexperienced players make (remember LaRussa yanking him from that game last year). This spring Russ Springer was having to serve as a human alarm clock and time manager for Ryan. Not exactly a sign that Ryan has developed the kind of maturity and self-management needed in a starting major league ball player or, for that matter, any responsible adult with a job that has very high visibility and pays several hundred thousand dollars per year.
Ryan has only 238 AB’s in the major leagues. You often criticize small sample sizes. What do you have to say in this case?
You often speak of regression to the mean. Could it be that regression accounts for Ryan’s OPS being down to .666 after the May 24 game vs. the Padres? He is the only one of the starting 8 in that game who did not have a hit in the Cardinals’ 16-hit attack. He had 1 walk in five PA’s. Izturis, with an OPS over .700 finally, seems to be making a positive regression toward his mean peformance as a healthy, full-time experienced player. (He has as little power as Miles, Kennedy, Ozzie Smith, Tom Lawless, Dal Maxvill, et. al., but he now has a higher OPS than lead-off Skip Schumaker….)
If you were to say that Ryan isn’t hitting up to his potential so far this season because he isn’t getting enough regular AB’s, you might recall that you scoffed at that rationale for the dropoff in hitting by Izturis over the last two years.
You also scoffed at my analysis of the performance of Izturis when he was last healthy and playing full time, in almost over 800 consecutive AB’s spanning one and one third seasons, before he was injured. Yet you tout Ryan as a better choice at SS than Izturis, based on less than one third as many AB’s. And, when Izturis was the age Ryan is now, Cesar had already won a Gold Glove and had been an All-Star starter.
I hope that clarifies the rationale for my remark about Ryan’s need for seasoning, compared with Izturis.
by CardsWin on May 22, 2008 2:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I meant to write that Izturis has a higher OBP than Schumaker now
OBP (not OPS) .371 to .368, in Cesar’s favor, despite Schumaker’s 4 hits in 5 AB’s on May 24.
by CardsWin on May 22, 2008 2:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really don’t trust the Cardinal managers to evaluate fielding. By that logic, Chris Duncan is a compentent fielder when we know that he’s a huge detriment in the field. Ryan is going to have a few mental errors, I won’t argue that, but is Cesar exempt from mental lapses just because he’s a veteran? I’d hardly think so. The maturity issues seem largely overblown—LaRussa has been a hardass with Ryan and basically has him walking on eggshells all the time. He rode to the park with Springer; it’s not like Springer shook him awake this morning ignoring calls for “just 5 more minutes”.
Ryan’s OPS being down is quite possibly a better reflection of his true talent level than what we saw last year. But the problem is that a) he’s still hitting nearly what Izturis is and b) he costs 1/7th of what Izturis does. I’d have to disagree about his defense as SS because I think he’s more than competent there after seeing him in some Memphis games and watching his play last year.
I still think you are cherry picking stats with Izturis - and despite that, he’s still only proved that he’s marginally better than Brendan Ryan. I tout Ryan as the better choice because I think there’s more upside there, he’s younger than Izturis and he costs less. I really don’t care what Izturis had done prior to when he’s was Ryan’s age beyond what it tells me moving forward. Izturis has been in the tank for 3 years and even after all your projetions of greatness (or very goodness, whatever you’d like to call it) prior to this season, he’s hitting with a sub.700 OPS.
by azruavatar on May 23, 2008 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
his home run
it was just as close to being robbed as Ludwick’s. Maybe it was like 5 inches higher in the air, but Hairston still almost had it.
Also, I really don’t see why Ryan needs seasoning. Does this mean Chris Perez won’t be ready to pitch for another year and a half?
I’m pleased with Izturis’ start to the year, but I still feel like Ryan is the better option over the course of the season. I can’t help but notice you only included strikeouts and OPS in your stats. Can you give us the full line next time?
On with the (good) youth movement!
by aet15 on May 20, 2008 11:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Leave that horse alone
It’s quite clearly dead already.
Here’s the thing…You only bang this Izturis drum when he does something really good. The dude’s OBP IS unsustainable. It’s a simple, undeniable fact. The guy has NEVER shown this kind of patience at the plate over an extended period of time, and hitters very rarely adapt in such a dramatic way so quickly. As was mentioned before, given the relatively small sample size of games, one home run will have a fairly dramatic impact on a low slugging percentage. Therefore, his OPS right now is slightly inflated, and even then he sits at a whopping .695.
You show his current stats compared to Ryan, Eck, and Renteria, and yet they prove the point everyone has been trying to make for a long time. He’s barely outperforming Ryan, and that is with numbers out of line with everything he’s done in his career. Yeah, he’s probably a better fielder, but not dramatically. Hell, as SleepyCA points out Ryan is actually outperforming him on that side by the data. He makes rougly 2.25 million more than Ryan to be the same player. That’s foolish, and basically it means he’s being paid a bonus for having been a major leaguer before last July, b/c really the only difference is that Izturis has been playing ML baseball longer.
You also compare him to Renteria, and while he has better numbers than Edgar, he is not in any way shape or form a better player. It’s not even close. Yeah, Renteria would have cost more, and I never once advocated for bringing him back b/c of the financial and prospect penalties that would incur. But he’s still better than Izturis. Hell the guy is in the middle of a slump, and still has more home runs and a higher slugging percentage.
Has Izturis exceeded expectations? Yeah, sure. He’s been surprisingly mediocre with the bat, and has been a solid fielder. But that isn’t really the key point. The fact of the matter is that signing him blocked the only ML ready SS in the system, cost 2 million useless dollars extra, and continued a tradition of filling in holes with known mediocrities. No matter what Izturis does this season, I will not feel good about this acquisition at any time.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on May 20, 2008 1:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1,000,000
"I believe he’s been reincarnated, that he played before, in the twenties and thirties, and he’s back to prove something." - Former teammate Mark McGwire about Albert Pujols
by cardzfan24 on May 20, 2008 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another comparison
The goal for shortstop in the offseason was primarily to upgrade defensively. Three choices around the time we signed Izturis that would have accomplished that goal were to go with Ryan, Izturis, or Adam Everett.
At the time, I wasn’t convinced Izturis would be any upgrade at all and would’ve preferred Everett and Ryan splitting time.
Now I’m convinced I was wrong.
by liam on May 20, 2008 2:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
GPA
In defense of Cardswin, CW’s posts have mostly been about what Izturis has done, not what he will do.
Yes, we’d rather have Greene and Tulo in 2009, 2010, etc. They’re the better long term bet then Iz2.
But let’s look at what Iz2 has done so far this year using GPA (from Hardball Times), which weights OBP more than SLG; it is more predictive of producing runs and it is less influenced by one fluky swing of the bat such as what happened last night:
Here are all the qualified SS in MLB ranked by GPA:
Furcal LAN .358
Ramirez FLA .318
Tejada HOU .298
Escobar ATL .283
Theriot CHN .280
Guzman WAS .274
Reyes NYN .268
Jeter NYA .267
Drew ARI .267
Keppinger CIN .264
Crosby OAK .254
Young TEX .245
Peralta CLE .238
Lugo BOS .231
Renteria DET .226
Aybar LAA .224
Hardy MIL .219
Betancourt SEA .218
Greene SD .216
Bartlett TB .206
Cabrera CHA .197
Iz2 is not qualified (just short of PAs) but comes in at a GPA of .252.
A commenter in an ealier post suggested that I was cherry picking when I reported similar numbers because I merely stated-without listing-the fact that Iz2 was ranked at 16/24 at the time, and then listed some SS near him (above and below). I have now provided all of the statistics for all of the qualified SS. Iz2 is ranked 12/22 by GPA. No cherries picked.
GPA weights OBP heavily (that’s the idea) and Iz2 has been good-abnormally so-at getting on base. I am not predicting future performance. I am reporting what he has done so far using a better statistic than OPS.
Point of interest: There is a huge league split from top (NL) to bottom (AL).
by ncgostl on May 20, 2008 5:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
regarding AL vs NL
There are 2 qualified NL SS’s that have been worse than Izturis by GPA, and 2 others who have been worse with similar playing time. 9 qualified NL SS’s have been better and one unqualified SS with similar playing time has been better. So I’d rank him as #11 of 15 NL SS’s so far- a lot better than I thought he’d be, but definitely a position which could be improved upon. I just wanted to point this out because at first glance, due to the bizarre AL performance across the board, Iz2 looks better than he actually has been when dropped into a list of all SS’s. You did make this point, but your list is visually misleading.
FWIW, which isn’t much, Iz2 has been a bit better than Ryan (.252 vs .246).
full list of NL SS’s here, sorted by GPA.
And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...
by SleepyCA on May 20, 2008 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I’d rather Ryan get a lot of playing time because a) he has more upside offensively and b) he is a better bet to be a solution for the long term. Offensively, in small samples for Ryan 2008, Iz2 and Ryan are a wash.
I debated about what is visually misleading, and settled on an MLB list of SS with a full sample. If I had plotted only NL, then the Iz2 defenders would say I was visually misleading. (And a truly misleading graph would have been just the AL SSs, where Iz2 would be king! Why didn’t I think of that? Send the graph to Mozeliak—Trade Iz2 to the AL now…..).
We’re in agreement. Iz2 looks mediocre by NL standards (11/15), but looks good by MLB standards because of the bizarre AL thing.
Also, Iz2 looks good by NL standards when you include either “both” (50th percentile) or “no” (67th percentile) for NL shortstops, with lots of small sample qualifiers giving the playing time of the “nos” who show up in both lists. Just completing the record for thoroughness…..
The more interesting fact here is the SS split for leagues. For a long time it seems that the NL has had better 1B than the AL (maybe because 1B is used for defense since they have a DH for good hitters who are poor fielders?). And, until 2 years ago, I would have said that the AL has dominated on offense at shortstop (Tejeda, Jeter, Young). This GPA list for SSs is a revelation 40 games into 2008. Interesting to see if it holds up. And it would be interesting to break it down for interleague play to make sure there is no weird within league effect.
by ncgostl on May 20, 2008 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
AL SS
Don’t forget—there are more teams in the NL than the AL, and some of the AL teams have really shitty SS play (Minnesota, KC, Tampa, Seattle, Baltimore, Toronto). Also, you have one great SS who plays 3B (A-Rod), which is unfortunate, because he’s actually a better defensive player over the history of his career than Jeter.
AL teams can afford to have one player for defense only—either a catcher, SS, or 2B because they fill the pitchers spot with the DH. If you look at most of the teams with crappy offensive SS, they nearly all have really good play from the catching position (excepting Baltimore, who has one in the pipeline, and Toronto) As you alluded to, the NL has higher rated first basemen usually, because guys like Thome, Giambi, and Frank Thomas all DH in the AL.
I advocated for his Iz2’s signing because I didn’t believe that Ryan could handle the SS position full time and would be a defensive liability. Looking at it now, I’d much rather see Ryan get more and more playing time to see if he truly is the real deal who can bridge the gap until Kozma is ready in 2011. At that point they might actually get a draft pick for letting Iz2 sign somewhere else and could play Ryan at SS in 2009.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on May 21, 2008 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Walk Rate Spikes
I’ve posted about this before, and I’ll regurgitate the gist of it here.
Early in the ‘06 season, Miles saw a noticeable spike in his walk rate as well—one that carried through to season’s end and caused me to, on this very site, advocate for him receiving AB’s. Grit + OBP= Everybody happy (even if Slugging is nowhere to be found).
In 2006, Miles had a wonderful April in terms of walk rate and OBP, strikingly similar to that of Izturis. Through this date in the 2006 season, Miles had a .420 OBP with 16 BB on in 111 PAs. Izturis has a .365 OBP right now with 16 BB in 137 PAs. Neither Miles in ‘06 nor Izturis is hitting with any sort of pop. Miles slugged only .387 through this date in ‘06 while Izturis is slugging .331. In ‘06, Miles ended with a .324 OBP b/c of a career high of 38 walks.
by bgh on May 20, 2008 8:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
???????
was at petco tonight and saw some pretty listless baseball from the birds, though ap did swing at a first pitch. why was barton a starter over skippy forcing luddy to center? tony outsmarting himself or something in the wind? according to kevin towers little blow up last night, seems the padres are up for some major changes. watching tonight, it seems they need a center fielder and some middle-long relief. they won’t give up greene w/o getting a shortstop in return. so, something like iz2, thompson, barton for greene (just don’t look at greene’s BA). i’m for packaging barton now before his average dips too m uch. he looked lost tonight. w/o barton, we have a spot for mather.
If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, perhaps you haven't grasped the situation!
by sportsman on May 21, 2008 2:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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