mr clutch
by lboros
on May 19, 2008 9:19 AM EDT
stroke of good luck for st louis: they don’t have to face peavy tonight. instead they’ll face a journeyman left-handed pitcher, wil ledezma, with a 5.09 career era. the cardinals always tee off on guys like this . . . .
i’m well aware that clutch hitting comes and goes; it’s not really a "skill" except in rare cases. but from a purely descriptive standpoint, skip schumaker’s achievements in the clutch so far in 2008 deserve mention. his game-winner yesterday was his 3d walk-off hit of the year, to go along with his clinching blows on april 26 (single) and may 2 (homer). he also had a 9th-inning game-winner on the road (ie, not a walkoff) on april 21 against milwaukee (double). in his 10 highest-leverage at-bats so far this year, schumaker has 7 base hits --- 4 singles, 2 doubles, and a homer --- plus a sacrifice and a "productive out" (he grounded to 2d, moving the go-ahead run to 3d base with 1 out; he later scored). that’s 7 for 9, if you’re scoring at home. the full list, courtesy of fangraphs:
| lev | date | foe | inn | sco | out | runners | pitcher | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.65 | 5/2 | chi | 11 | 3-3 | 1 | 3rd | c fox | gw homer |
| 4.58 | 4/22 | mil | 9 | 7-7 | 0 | 1st | e gagne | rbi single |
| 4.36 | 4/21 | mil | 9 | 3-3 | 1 | 3rd | d turnbow | rbi double |
| 4.33 | 4/25 | hou | 9 | 2-3 | 0 | 2d | j valverde | gb (runner advanced) |
| 4.29 | 4/26 | hou | 9 | 3-3 | 1 | 1st / 2d | w wright | gw single |
| 4.29 | 5/18 | tb | 9 | 4-4 | 1 | 1st / 2d | g glover | gw single |
| 4.28 | 5/18 | tb | 8 | 2-4 | 0 | 1st / 2d | t miller | sac |
| 3.81 | 5/18 | tb | 6 | 0-3 | 1 | loaded | j howell | rbi single |
| 3.43 | 5/10 | mil | 9 | 3-3 | 0 | 1st | e gagne | single |
| 3.28 | 4/13 | sf | 8 | 4-7 | 2 | loaded | t walker | groundout |
you’ll note that 3 of the at-bats on this list occurred in yesterday’s game, in the 6th, 8th, and 9th innings. to reiterate, i’m not arguing that schumaker’s clutch performance represents a repeatable skill; in his next 10 high-leverage at-bats, he might very well go 1 for 10. (for the record, skip was 3 for 9 with a walk in his 10 highest-leverage at-bats of 2007.) but his heroics in the early going deserve some recognition.
the anti-skip of 2008 thus far is rick ankiel: in his 10 highest-leverage at-bats, he is 0 for 10 with 6 strikeouts and 4 groundouts; hasn’t even gotten the ball out of the infield. last year he was 3 for 10 with a homer in his 10 highest-leverage at-bats . . . . . chris duncan is 1 for 10 so far in 2008. oh what the hell, here’s the whole list, ordered by win probability added:
| results | notes | WPA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| schumaker | 7 for 9 | homer, 2 doubles | 1.293 |
| glaus | 3 for 7 | homer, 3 walks, 3 strikeouts | .781 |
| ludwick | 4 for 10 | homer, 2 doubles | .609 |
| miles | 4 for 8 | 2 walks | .248 |
| kennedy | 2 for 8 | walk, sac fly | .055 |
| ryan | 3 for 8 | walk, sac | .044 |
| izturis | 1 for 6 | 2 walks, hbp, sac | -.122 |
| pujols | 1 for 8 | 2 walks | -.170 |
| molina | 1 for 8 | 2 walks | -.302 |
| duncan | 1 for 10 | -.567 | |
| ankiel | 0 for 10 | 6 strikeouts | -.946 |
intentional walks are not included on this list; pujols has been passed 3 times in high-leverage situations, but i’m not counting those. for the final time, this list is not intended to identify who’s a clutch player and who’s a choker; it describes what has happened so far this year, but that bears little if any relation to what may happen going forward.
items:
- welcome to the big leagues, chris perez --- and jason motte may not be far behind. he struck out the side in the 9th yesterday to preserve a 1-0 win and earn his first save as perez’s replacement in memphis. motte pitched to 7 batters over the weekend and struck out 6 of’m; the other guy singled.
- in the same game, mitch boggs threw 7 innings of 2-hit, no-run ball with the following outfield playing behind him: gabe johnson, a catcher, in left field; joe mather, a first baseman, in center; and nick stavinoha, a first baseman who converted to outfield two years ago, in right field. boggs is making a powerful case for promotion --- he’s 4-1 with a 3.33 era; striking guys out, avoiding walks, keeping the ball in the park, and getting groundballs.
- the 1986 sim-strat-o-cardinals are tied 1-1 with the yankees in the world series . the bronx bombers roughed up john tudor yesterday.
- david eckstein sighting: were y’all aware that he’s been on the DL since may 6? i wasn’t . . . . he committed 6 errors in his first 30 games.
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eckstein
didn’t play any of the three games in philadelphia over the weekend, i believe… did he just come off the DL? link goes to wil ledezma’s B-R page…
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on May 19, 2008 9:28 AM EDT 0 recs
Again, what some of our players have done this year
is just unbelievable. I NEVER expected Schu to do what he’s done this year. Nor Lud.
by sdrone on May 19, 2008 9:32 AM EDT 0 recs
Outfield conundrum
Skip has exceeded expectations and is playing well enough to keep us from seeing what Barton can do every day.
Ludwick has been a monster.
Duncan is a valuable piece when healthy, as is Ankiel who has been a revelation in the field while streaky with the bat.
I guess Mo is probably working the phones, but none of these guys is going to fetch all that much. They are serviceable for our needs. But Mather needs to be up. The guy is raking and the Cardinals need some pop (re: LOB). I don’t understand why they don’t give Rick a couple of weeks to rest and see what Joe can do.
by apierce on May 19, 2008 9:42 AM EDT 0 recs
Dude...
You jinxed us with the “always tee off on guys like this…”
I can see it now – “Journeyman chucklehead pitches no-hitter against Cards; prognosticating blogger at fault”.
:)
I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. ~Bill Veeck
by bukowski on May 19, 2008 9:47 AM EDT 0 recs
I believe it was a tongue-in-cheek comment.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
by Eckstreem on
May 19, 2008 9:54 AM EDT
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poor pitchers
As long as the Cards continue to punish the better pitchers, then I’m okay with that. But I laughed out loud at the comment. Definitely sarcasm.
"Give a man a fire, and he’ll be warm for a night. Set him on fire and he’ll be warm for the rest of his life."
by BigMOman on
May 19, 2008 11:30 AM EDT
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Regardless
of the sarcasm (which I didn’t pick up on due to my generally dour nature), he still jinxed us.
Be wary of the vengeful baseball gods – for they do not know sarcasm, witticism – only irony.
I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. ~Bill Veeck
by bukowski on
May 19, 2008 4:45 PM EDT
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Barton
I agree with others who have said it would be nice of Mo could work a deal with the Indians to get Barton under contract and send him down. That would give him steady ab in Memphis and bring Mather up to provide some much needed pop in the lineup.
With Ank healthy I would like to see if this lineup could slug:
Kennedy 2b
Ankiel cf
Pujols 1b
Ludwick lf
Glaus 3b
Mather rf
Molina c
Ryan/Izturis ss
Pitcher
2-7 all would have extra bases potential.
by paposse on May 19, 2008 9:52 AM EDT 0 recs
egad
kennedy at leadoff? I would rather see ryan there, but its a mute point. Cleveland would readily take barton back, he wasn’t protected because he was hurt. I believe some said they already had trade talks and they went no where.
"Textbooks are Soviet propaganda" - Rev. Jerry Falwell
by elirock83 on
May 19, 2008 9:58 AM EDT
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Moot point.
Sorry. I don’t mean to be a grammar nazi. Because I make a lot of mistakes when I type up post. But this is one of those things that people get wrong all the time because no one ever told them it was moot and not mute.
Anyway. Yes we talked to Cleveland about a trade for Barton. They wanted nothing of it. Im sure they are hoping they can get him back after what he did in spring training and his limited ABs this season.
by Evilfrog on
May 19, 2008 10:03 AM EDT
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stalled talks in May
do not close out he possibility of a trade for Barton. Cleveland’s bargaining position goes down as the clock clicks (but I wish Tony could find Brian more ABs).
by jjray on
May 19, 2008 11:11 AM EDT
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be careful Evilfrog
people will use poor grammar irregardless of your comments. ;-)
"Give a man a fire, and he’ll be warm for a night. Set him on fire and he’ll be warm for the rest of his life."
by BigMOman on
May 19, 2008 11:31 AM EDT
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Moot points
a) It’s a lexical , not a grammatical error (another one of those things people get wrong all the time)
b) ‘mute’ for ‘moot’ is a folk-etymological error occasioned by the fact that ‘moot’ has evolved two contradictory meanings
c) in consequence ‘moot’ will probably disappear from the lexicon and be replaced by ‘mute’ within a generation or two. Eliroc83 is on the cutting edge of our evolving language.
by stoneyb on
May 19, 2008 2:45 PM EDT
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this begs the question
of why we keep returning to the same stomping ground of lexical errors when, for all intensive purposes, most of us could care less.
by mattybobo on
May 19, 2008 3:36 PM EDT
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LOL
Awesome.
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on
May 19, 2008 3:41 PM EDT
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It's because
It’s a doggy-dog world
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on
May 19, 2008 5:11 PM EDT
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Surely not!
Why or how would “mute” ever replace “moot”? It’s like saying “are” will replace “our” just because some people can’t get their usage right.
by MdRedbirdFreak on
May 19, 2008 4:37 PM EDT
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You too are two silly
"Give a man a fire, and he’ll be warm for a night. Set him on fire and he’ll be warm for the rest of his life."
by BigMOman on
May 19, 2008 5:03 PM EDT
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Its not that their silly its that there interest in grammar is a little outrageous lolz
I cant figure out who’s more ridiculous then who i.e. caring about moot/mute. Your all ridiculous. It’s a blog you could of just not worried about it.
With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch
by joker24 on
May 19, 2008 6:53 PM EDT
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That's impressive.
You managed to work in almost every possible form of butchering the English language in one satirical post. You even touched my personal pet peeve of “could of” instead of “could have.” Very nicely done.
by etp_stl on
May 19, 2008 7:03 PM EDT
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Sorry, it cut me off.
I was commending your ability to pack so many errors into one succinct post. You even touched on my personal favorite of using “could of” instead of “could have.”
by etp_stl on
May 19, 2008 7:05 PM EDT
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didn't know they had talked
I know they would take Barton back, and I don’t want to lose the guy. It’s too bad they couldn’t work something out.
Probably right about Kennedy, but if he kept is obp in the high .300s he’s no worse than Eck. Wasn’t eck always around .380?
by paposse on
May 19, 2008 10:48 AM EDT
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Eckstein's OBP was usually around .350
Kennedy’s OBP is now around .320.
Re 2B: Miles’s OBP is better than Kennedy’s so far this season, but the difference is entirely due to batting average. Is Miles a .315 hitter? Both Miles and Kennedy are walking at the same (decent) rate.
So far Miles is a reasonable copy of the redbird (2005-2007) version of Eckstein. However, I’m not advocating for either Miles or Kennedy at leadoff.
by ncgostl on
May 19, 2008 10:58 AM EDT
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ah...
Yestruday made it all better. I love my some skippy. I don’t think he is the hands down better fielder than Duncan that people make him out to be. I do think the hotter bat should be get the playing time. And skippy is hotter than Duncan right now.
Watching Perez pitch that 9th made me all giddy inside. I think most of the bullpen’s problems come from not having a solid closer. Perez can be the solid closer. Me likey.
by Evilfrog on May 19, 2008 9:54 AM EDT 0 recs
I also think
that Miles has earned a few days off from the insults that are usually hurled at him on this site….I don’t say you have to praise him, just hold it down, OK.
by ridgesee on May 19, 2008 10:17 AM EDT 0 recs
Aaron
F’king Miles. True girt. OPS of .712 is not the greatest but whatever.
I honestly believe if miles got about 15 less starts a year people would love him. People like Miles as utility infielder. They don’t like him as an everyday player.
by Evilfrog on
May 19, 2008 10:24 AM EDT
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miles' overall WPA is only 0.13
ie, neutral — which, if maintained over a full season, would be a career high. aaron does pretty well in the clutch, but the outs he piles up on an at-bat by at-bat basis sure do add up . . .
by lboros on
May 19, 2008 10:42 AM EDT
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Grit = Clutch
According to the box score it was a line drive screamer he hit to left center, barely cut off or it would have skipped to the wall. At least that’s how I will remember it.
"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin
by That's a Winner on
May 19, 2008 11:15 AM EDT
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Miles is a great backup/reserve
I don’t think anybody denies that. He’s a switch-hitter, works the count, can play middle infield and—he can pitch! His batting in the late-innings has been awesome this year. He’s batting .361 in the 7th-9th and .500 in his 10 9th inning ABs with a BB (compared to .277 earlier 1-6). These differences are not significant, and haven’t been last year or throughout his career, so I doubt this continues.
What is interesting is that this year he’s batted .125 as a PH and .231 as a sub, compared to .330 as a starter. Now obviously this split is somewhat a TLR effect, as he puts Miles in against pitchers he hits well against. But it also means Miles this year looks to be the classic case of recency bias. He starts the game poorly but finishes strong. We all leave the game thinking – man that Miles has grit – but you forget his poor performance early in the game. That’s why maybe the numbers people are more anti-Miles than others think is justified.
by enoscountry on
May 19, 2008 12:21 PM EDT
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Well
if that’s the case, it’s F’king La Russa, Not F’king Miles.
by ridgesee on May 19, 2008 10:34 AM EDT 0 recs
agreed
so far, miles has done everything asked of him. it’s not his fault how often he’s asked.
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on
May 19, 2008 11:02 AM EDT
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Miles could
hit .340, with an OPS of .999, and people would still find something to bitch about. He’s just not liked by a lot people, no matter what he does. It’s just the nature of the beast.
If everything seems to be going well, you have obviously overlooked something.
by cardsrul on
May 19, 2008 11:56 AM EDT
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Yeah,
there could only be two possible explanations for the Cards sudden May swoon…global warming or Aaron Miles
by ridgesee on
May 19, 2008 12:02 PM EDT
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not true
If Miles OPS’d .999 there would only be bitching at TLR not to start him everyday
by Glowsticks on
May 19, 2008 2:32 PM EDT
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Not, it's not personal...
by most accounts, Miles is an admirable guy. He’s really just not a very good hitter. Despite his recent hot streak, his OPS is .711. That’s just not very good. Though compared to the other middle infielders, it is. But that says more about how bad they are, then how good Miles is.
Start Ludwick
by DiscoJer on
May 19, 2008 4:20 PM EDT
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one of those
was el hombre’s mad dash from 2nd on ank’s ground out in co.
by sdesserman on
May 19, 2008 4:46 PM EDT
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Credit where debit is due
Among the ten PA’s that were the highest leverage for Ankiel was the mad dash from Pujols. According to Fangraphs, Ankiel got all of the credit for Albert scoring on the play. Because WPA has not evolved to the point where it can distinguish subtler baserunning components from the batting record (advancing 1st to 3rd on a single, etc.), it just lumps it all in and praises the batter instead of the baserunner.
If you really wanted to break it down, Ankiel probably should have received credit for a groundout advancing a runner from 2nd to 3rd with 1 out in the top of the 9th of a tie game (some value I haven’t looked up) and the remainder credited to Pujols. So you can probably add another (- .250) to Rick’s horrid performances in high leverage situations.
That said, the Cubs do deserve my pity, but never my support.
by Solanus on
May 19, 2008 5:16 PM EDT
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We've got to fix this clutch
We’ve got the ingredients for a great offense - a bunch of slaphappy singlers and 3-4 dudes who can seriously crank it. If we could just get them to do their things AT THE SAME TIME we’d be scoring runs like crazy. Instead we’re stranding the Slappies and then jacking solo HRs all over the place.
OK, I’m not saying anything that everyone doesn’t already know. Question: how does the rest of MLB look vis-a-vis percentage-of-HRs-that-are-solo? Do the Cards own that stat, the way it feels like?
by Andyfantastic on May 19, 2008 11:28 AM EDT 0 recs
we are way off
Our OBP is much higher than the league average, yet our solo HR/RBI HR rate is twice as high as the league average.
NL STL
Solo HR 391 28
RBI HR 280 10
ratio: 1.4 2.8
OBP: .334 .369
And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...
by SleepyCA on
May 19, 2008 1:45 PM EDT
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On a related note...
It seems to me that our opponents, especially lately, have had an inordinately high percentage of hits being of the extra-base variety. Yesterday, for instance, the Rays had 11 hits for the game w/ 7 doubles. Now, I know being strong, working the other way, etc. can help produce more doubles than singles, but 7 of 11 seems like a pretty high percentage to me. I didn’t go back to look at Friday’s and Saturday’s boxes to check, but it seemed like they had more XBH’s than singles in every game.
Is this a statistical anomaly? just a really good hitting team that can direct their flies to the gaps? poor defensive positioning? poor Cardinal pitching?
P.S. Andyf. neat avatar, are you a chemist? nuke?
by ArkansasTravs on
May 19, 2008 2:09 PM EDT
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More than likely they were all hit to schumaker.
Actually. I didn’t watch the game until the 7th inning. So I don’t know.
by Evilfrog on
May 19, 2008 2:41 PM EDT
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like you, I didn't turn it on until the late innings
but there was at least one “schumaker special” hustle double hit late in the game.
And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...
by SleepyCA on
May 19, 2008 3:53 PM EDT
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I was at the game....
they were all down the line. Many past a diving Pujols. Hence, Ludwick getting an assist on what could have been one of eight doubles for the game. I read it as a lot of well placed shots, but they were hit on a line, just very low.
by tinstl on
May 19, 2008 8:21 PM EDT
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actually
i thought in saturday’s game that almost all of their hits were singles. At least through the 6th.
"Sorry about him, he's dealing with being an inker. " - Chasing Amy
by FutureMan on
May 19, 2008 3:20 PM EDT
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Late night tonight
10:05 ET first pitch…it’s gonna be a late one, my friends on the east coast!
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on May 19, 2008 11:30 AM EDT 0 recs
Im not even going to make it
I have to be up at 4:30ish Tuesday. This will be the second game i’ve missed this year :-(
by Evilfrog on
May 19, 2008 11:32 AM EDT
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yes, the west coast bias
it’s not fair! see BDD’s post on deadspin last thursday…
i doubt i’ll be watching any of the games in SD. hope i can wake up with another few in the win column this week.
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on
May 19, 2008 12:01 PM EDT
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I'm pretty diehard
But 10PM first pitch for me is a bit too late. I may watch the first couple innings but judging from this team’s last week of games, if I stay up late late, I’ll either get my heart broken or miss some awesome theatrics. I’ll go to bed hoping for the later
by riotmute on
May 19, 2008 12:16 PM EDT
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eh
i’m a little better being in the central. game still should end around midnight or so. not sure if i’m going to make it but i’ll be aroune nevertheless.
by stlcardinalsfang on
May 19, 2008 12:54 PM EDT
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i'll be here late
i dont get off work til midnight
C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!
by yer dog first on
May 19, 2008 2:58 PM EDT
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im lucky for once
dont have to sub tomorrow, normally i just suck it up for the late games and stagger the next
i take your signatures and use them as away messages
by ihavebadknees on
May 19, 2008 3:50 PM EDT
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Ah, that is nothing.
I was watching games at 3:00 am in the UK. Watched the World Series over their, i’m sure I woke up the whole town with cheering.
by davethebutcher on
May 19, 2008 8:20 PM EDT
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Wellemeyer at Petco
versus the hack happy Padres, should be a recipe for success.
boo cubs, hooray beer
by Raconteur on May 19, 2008 12:20 PM EDT 0 recs
This Ankiel situation is stupid
the doctor’s say he can’t swing 100% but don’t DL him? Why the hell not? As long as he is here, LaRussa will be tempted to use him as a PH. If the shoulder isn’t getting the rest it needs, that’ll just delay his DL clock that much longer. I’d rather have him back on June 1 at full strength, than piddling around for the next week with a short bench and Skippy/Duncan getting to start everyday.
by Hardcore Legend on May 19, 2008 12:47 PM EDT 0 recs
Agreed
This makes zero sense to me. Bring up Mather who has the power to hit bombs out of Petco and Dodger stadium. I don’t understand shorting the bench to save a few days of availablility and possibly risking further injury.
by indakind on
May 19, 2008 12:54 PM EDT
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It's not like we don't have any other really valid options in the OF.
Even without Ank, we have 4 legitimate outfield options in Studwick, Barton, Duncan, and Shoe-less.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
by Eckstreem on
May 19, 2008 2:50 PM EDT
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damn
I guess I should’ve read your comment before posting.
On with the (good) youth movement!
by aet15 on
May 19, 2008 3:48 PM EDT
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I agree.
It’s not like an outfield of Barton / Skip / Dunc / Ludwick is a bad temporary solution.
On with the (good) youth movement!
by aet15 on
May 19, 2008 3:47 PM EDT
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Not only that
but DL’ing him allows them to call up Mather to give them power off the bench.
When LaRussa starts Duncan/Ludwick/Skippy in the OF, we have no power threat coming off the bench.
by Hardcore Legend on
May 19, 2008 4:24 PM EDT
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Will be attending ....
The Friday and Sat night games at Dodger Stadium…..any west coast Cards fans going to be there too? We have a group of about 12 transplanted St.Louis fans going and sitting together on Sat night.. Field Boxes, 1st base side…about half way between 1st and the foul pole…..come and say hey if you are there!
by Timbo02 on May 19, 2008 2:56 PM EDT 0 recs
I will be at both games too
will be gorging on dodger dogs in the all you can eat seats for Fridays game. Sat night I will be just behind the cards dugout. I will be rocking my VEB shirt on Sat
by FunkeeC on
May 19, 2008 4:44 PM EDT
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Sounds Good!..
I’ll keep an eye out for your VEB shirt FunkeeC…..and hope we witness a Cards Win!!
by Timbo02 on
May 19, 2008 5:01 PM EDT
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Eckstein
Really funny you mention that, as yesterday I was looking through available shortstops in my fantasy league and came across Eckstein with a “dl” note next to his name. That’s when I realized that’s the first time I’d read anything about him all year.
On with the (good) youth movement!
by aet15 on May 19, 2008 3:46 PM EDT 0 recs
New Guy
Hey all. I’ve been reading the blog pretty much since it’s existence. I’ve obviously never posted, though. I love the blog and all the insight it offers, and blah blah blah same old stuff.
Just wanted to let everybody know I’ve decided to join, so that I can ask questions and possibly offer some of my insight in the future (probably be more questions, though!!).
Jim Edmonds in a Cub Uniform Makes Me Want to PUKE!!!