What would a pure OPS lineup look like?

by etp_stl on May 18, 2008 10:17 PM EDT Comment 26 comments

We had some pretty spirited discussions in the game thread today about which players belong in the lineup. There were some great points made by AdjustedExpectations indicating a serious disparity in playing time between both the infielders and the outfielders. It got me wondering where the decisions might be coming from. I decided to take a look at what a lineup based solely on OPS might look like. I know that there are plenty of additional variables to making out a lineup, but I thought it would add some discussion.

So, I looked at the OFs, first.

Ludwick 1.130
Ankiel .853
Duncan .776
Schumaker .738
Barton .727

This would lead to an OF of

LF Duncan
CF Ankiel
RF Ludwick

Then, I looked at the IFs next.

Pujols 1.082
Glaus .801
Molina .755
Miles .707
Ryan .655
Izturis .643
Kennedy .637
LaRue .530

First of all, let me just say that having 5 of 8 at about .700 or below is pathetic. That said, I come up with an IF of:

C Molina
1B Pujols
2B Miles
SS Ryan
3B Glaus

So, I think we start to see why we have LOB problems. There aren't enough guys that can hit a 2B on this team, much less an HR. Our middle infield is really awful offensively. Honestly, Miles is the best of the group, right now. Pitiful.

What do you guys think about that lineup? Are we losing enough defensively by replacing Schumaker or Barton with Duncan? How about replacing Kennedy and Izturis with Miles and Ryan? I have stated frequently that I don't have much use for Miles, but the numbers make it difficult to just write him off. Personally, for my batting order, I would go this way:

Miles
Molina
Pujols
Ankiel
Ludwick
Glaus
Duncan
Pitcher (WTH)
Ryan

I think Molina has a chance to be really helpful in the 2 hole. His OPS is a little lower than Duncan, but his OBP could be very useful here. Duncan's power could be more useful lower in the order. You could use Miles and Molina in hit-and-run situations. Molina's speed won't be an issue in front of Pujols, IMO. You aren't going to steal bases in that spot, and Pujols is better without the hit-and-run.

Just some thoughts, so I'm interested in hearing what you guys/gals think. Who would you platoon, and why? Thanks for your time.

6 recs | Comment 26 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

I like the thought

but I cringe at the thought of putting your lowest OPS guys in front of Pujols. I would at least like someone in the 2 hole who can score from first on a Pujols double. I am not sure Yadi could score from 1st on a triple…

Here’s my suggestion for a lineup….uhh…now I am depressed. We just don’t have enough pieces. I just can’t endorse a lineup with any of our MIFs in it, what a shame. I think it is about time to see if Brian Barden can hit MLB pitching. I would keep trotting Duncan out there in the 2 spot against RHPs and I would take a shot at something wild like trying Glaus in the 2 hole against LHPs – he does have a .423 OBP against LHPs so far and a career .408 against them. I also think Barton (.413 OBP v. LHPs) should get to lead off against LHPs AND PLAY THE ENTIRE GAME.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on May 18, 2008 11:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

On starting and finishing the entire game. The only complete games thus far are nonsave situation games. (Losing, or run supported).

I’m going to look around and see if I can find a stat on all of the OF and XBH allowed/total chances. Seems like the guy who’s subbing him trends as the person who has the highest XBH in his defensive zone. In short, why sub?

I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang

by AdjustedExpectations on May 19, 2008 3:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You and I had a good discussion of Yadi in the two hole today

This is some good work. However, I think that if you’re going to base the lineup on OPS you should look at both components (OBP and SLG). Let’s look at your lineup, based on 2008 stats (up until today’s game against TB, 5/18) from Baseball Reference:

Player OBP SLG OPS

Aaron Miles .362 .345 .717
Yadier Molina .367 .388 .755
Albert Pujols .490 .592 1.082
Rick Ankiel .370 .473 .843
Ryan Ludwick .406 .724 1.130
Troy Glaus .382 .419 .801
Chris Duncan .364 .412 .776
Pitcher
Brendan Ryan .322 .333 .655

A few things:

1. I tried to make this look like a pretty table, but all the html tutorials I found told me to use tr and td tags, which did not work. That was a lot of work for it not to work, lol. So now you guys have this ugly-formatted thing.

2. What about Troy Glaus in the #2 hole? His .382 OBP is pretty solid for someone to be in front of Pujols; most lineup studies say you should put your best power hitter in the #2 spot (TLR will never put Pu there, though), so why not Santa? If you’re willing to move Yadi up there, then Troy should be a consideration as well.

3. I didn’t look up our pitchers’ composite numbers because Tony will have them hit 8th this year no matter what. He will also have Al hitting 3rd, so any realistic lineup combination must start with those two solid slots.

4. I didn’t think BR was having this poor of a year. It says something when he has a .322 OBP and his .655 OPS is still the second best among the MIFs.

5. Ludwick’s .406 OBP may look good in the leadoff spot, but for one thing, he looked terrible in his one game there, and for another thing, the power he’s shown this season would be better utilized later in the lineup.

So given the players you cited with your OPS study, here’s how I would line them up:

1. Ankiel CF
2. Glaus 3B
3. Pujols 1B
4. Ludwick RF
5. Duncan LF
6. Molina C
7. Ryan SS
8. Pitcher
9. Miles 2B

Unfortunately, this bunches up our singles hitters from 6-9, but the lineup you have has them 8-9, then 1-2, so I guess it would be hard to avoid. I put Ank up top because I absolutely do not want to see Miles up there, and there’s no other option I really loved.

All in all, excellent work. I recommended this diary.

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on May 19, 2008 12:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Red,

The easiest way to get everything to line up (as in what you need to put in) is to use a pre tag. When I need data and columns to line up (without headaches) I tend to open a notepad document, change the font to Courier, throw my data in and space as needed, then wrap in a pre tag.

So, using your data as an example. I opened a notepad, put a tab next to each player’s name so the columns lined up wrapped in a pre tag, and the result is below.

<pre>
Aaron Miles	.362 .345 .717
Yadier Molina 	.367 .388 .755
Albert Pujols 	.490 .592 1.082
Rick Ankiel 	.370 .473 .843
Ryan Ludwick 	.406 .724 1.130
Troy Glaus 	.382 .419 .801
Chris Duncan 	.364 .412 .776
Pitcher
Brendan Ryan 	.322 .333 .655
</pre>

Sidenote: Technically you have no real reason to change the font. However courier and a few others are fixed font (all letters are the same width). Other fonts, including this one in the comment box isn’t. So it’s hard to see if everything aligns. Tabs are your friend using this tactic rather than spaces, but both should work just fine.

Hope that helps.

I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang

by AdjustedExpectations on May 19, 2008 3:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

I tried looking for something like this, but couldn’t find it with a roughly 5-minute google search. It has been noted!

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on May 19, 2008 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

awesome

I’ve been looking for a way to do this since the new site rolled out.

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on May 19, 2008 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good look.

I’m a little confused when you said I should look at both components. Did you mean I should have listed both and the combined? ‘Cuz I should have, but it was late. Otherwise, I did take those components into my suggested lineup along with breaking up the L/R combinations.

I don’t have a problem with Glaus in the 2 hole. I guess I just keep waiting for the OPS to come up on him. That would make your point about Ludwick apply to Glaus, as well. It seems like when we were able to do that with Walker it was due to the embarrasment of riches we had in terms of run producers. This team obviously doesn’t have that issue. I’d never heard that about putting your best power hitter in the 2 slot. Does anyone in baseball do that?

It was pretty amazing to see how poor the numbers for our IFs really were, wasn’t it? How do you get away from bunching your singles hitters when half the damn lineup is singles hitters? And that puts 5 guys on the bench that are singles hitters, if they ever hit. And how in the world does a major league hitter have a .530 OPS? I tried to at least bunch the singles hitters with higher OBPs in front of the higher OPS guys.

I got a kick out of giveml’s response that he doesn’t even want to build a lineup with this MIF. It was pretty discouraging. The sad thing is that I think guys like Miles and Kennedy are actually going to drop based on their histories, and I don’t think Ludwick will be able to keep up quite this level (though I expect him to still be good all season).

by etp_stl on May 19, 2008 8:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Power in the 2 hole

It’s been mentioned on this blog before, but I would have no idea where to look it up or find it. Maybe someone else can help out? Anyway, nobody in baseball does it because it is anti-tradition, although if anyone will, Tony might, since he already has the double-leadoff scenario and moving Pu up to 2 would make him the #3 hitter after the first time through the order. I wasn’t sure if you took into consideration both the individual OBP and SLG and the combined SLG, just clarifying.

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans

by Mr Redbird on May 19, 2008 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do we want a double hit in front of Pujols?

and to leave 1st base open for him all the time?

I agree, having a runner on 2nd or 3rd is more likely to score than a runner on 1st, but I would suspect (I have nothing to quantify this yet) that his RBIs would decrease with big bat in fron him.

A fast-running BBer in fron of him could well be the most productive.

by Cards81fan on May 19, 2008 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

so, Cesar or Skippy...

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on May 21, 2008 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A couple of thoughts

before I have to go make some money.

Molina from a stat line looks like a potential #2 hitter in some ways, but away from stat lines he is troublesome. Productive outs.

If he’s on first through a walk or a single he’s a risk for getting a productive out on shifting him. Anything on the infield is at least a putout at second, if not the infield. I’d make the case for one on with Albert up and the run potential, but we all know if someone steals second.. Albert’s getting walked.

However, if Albert’s hit doesn’t leave the park and goes deep then we need to make sure that the base runner has the ability to move as far into scoring position as possible.

Miles numbers reflect the fact that he’s the perfect rationale on why platoons work. If you look at Mile’s starts they tend to reflect three things.
1.) Roster issues – Glaus hurt usually gets him involved somewhere.
2.) Success against the starter.
3.) Interleague play – Something his numbers represent well.
He’s also competent as a pitch hitter.

When Miles is played, it trends to him playing when he’s at a strength.

When LaRue is in, the pitcher needs to get the #7 spot. Nothing against the guy, but if the 4,5,6 hitters get involved, I want someone who has proven to hit (which most of our pitchers have, and stats back that up) rather than a guy who hasn’t.

I would like to see Molina in the #7 spot almost all of the time. I understand the logic of clustering pop around the middle of the order. But I’m looking for productive outs. Shifting Molina is a lot harder than shifting whatever slappy hitter is in the #7 spot. Too many times have I seen Molina even on a hit and run end up the first leg in a double play due to speed. Bonus is if Molina gets a double.. the runner scores. That’s not a guarantee, well less likely with Molina on first.

Barton is cooling off because of pine in my opinion, which corresponds to the stats. Pinch hitting is starting to become the main staple of his statline, and he doesn’t have enough major league at bats to become productive doing it. He’s also carrying a few games where he’s only getting 2 bats before pulled. They’ll only get worse unless he is fairly represented in the platoon.

Rick is on pace for over 120 games this year. Now, I want Ank in there as much as possible, but I don’t know if he has the endurance for that. If he projects around 110, 100 games I’m ok with that. He should be platooned based on performance (read: slump breaks) or well timed points in road/home trips. Knowing Ank, he’ll give a few chances for both.

When against RHP

Duncan has got to start in the #2 hole. Duncan is enjoying the “before Pujos” situation a little, and since he’s pitched too and has a very good eye (career numbers trend to support), it’s a win win.

Iz’s numbers start to crash when against righties. Not nearly as dramatic as Duncan’s (wow – look at this years), but enough to argue for Ryan to get some playing time in a similar platoon scenario. If nothing else to give pitching staff’s a different look. Iz is Iz and is well known, Ryan still has the potential to surprise up coming staffs and needs a bat to remain warm, cooling off on the bench isn’t ok.

While not directly stats based, the point of these quick points is to look at ways to encourage better production.

Fun stat I seen today while looking a couple of things up

We gripe about first pitch hitting as a team, lol. But when we do.. .340/.344/.612/ – At least we’re doing it well

I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang

by AdjustedExpectations on May 19, 2008 3:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I like the point on Miles.

He is definitely a platoon player. The problem is the options have been so damn poor to platoon him with. Kennedy hasn’t been as awful as last year, and he has come through in a few clutch situations. From what I’ve seen, Miles can’t last an entire season in the St. Louis heat anyway.

I agree with the productive outs argument, but here is my rationale. I think Yadi’s foot speed and good OBP actually make him a better fit from a productive outs perspective. He is more susceptible to the DP hitting in front of ground ball hitters like Kennedy and Izturis than what he is hitting in front of XBHs like Pujols, Ankiel, Ludwick, and Glaus. It seems like this would help out the station-to-station torture that we watch game in and game out in the bottom half of the order. It also seems like getting him on base from the 6 or 7 spot has been a complete waste of time because he is never going to score from 1B on a long single, and he seldom goes 1st to 3rd. The potential to drive him in seems greater if he is followed by XBHs. Also, guys like Duncan, Ludwick, Ankiel, and Glaus seem to make more flyouts than groundouts which should limit the DPs.

What do you think?

by etp_stl on May 19, 2008 8:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My 2 cents

And I think etp’s numbers support this – Aaron Miles isn’t nearly as awful to this team as our posters would have one think; and Barton really doesn’t have the sample size to evaluate what he did or can do for the Cardinal lineup. I think these are two important things to consider before throwing any more vitriol around the VEB game forums.

"Well, folks, this game began as a tiny worm and is blossoming into a large cobra." - Mike "The Moon Man" Shannon

by Tudor's Electric Fan on May 19, 2008 5:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This is a great post

it got me thinking about the line up a little differently. This is off the top of my head so if you think it is stupid say so, but why not break the line up into two four man hitting teams. I know Tony wants the pitcher 8th, but this is my line up not his. LOL

Ryan
Duncan
Pujols
Ludwick

Miles
Molina
Glaus
Ankiel

Pitcher

What I thought was why not do 1-4 twice in the line up. In this configuration there is no week three man order. So no matter who leads off an inning there will be a power bat coming to the plate. This may reduce the easy 1-2-3 inning. If we have to keep the pitcher 8th, for the sake of this discussion, then the line up would be more like this.

Ryan
Duncan
Albert
Ludwick
Glaus
Ankiel
Molina
pitcher
Miles

This does not work nearly as well. IMHO because the bottom of the order becomes to weak. Any inning where Molina or the pitcher leads off this gives the opposition an easy 1-2-3 hitting team. A Molina. pitcher, Miles inning is not very threatening or, pitcher, Miles, Ryan for that matter. I do believe moving the pitcher back to ninth will help this line up.
I hope this at least made sense. My allergies are bad today and the meds are really making me light headed. So I am having a little trouble typing.

by nybirdfan on May 19, 2008 10:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting

Not sure it would work, but I like that you thought of this.

by spants on May 19, 2008 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting, but it wouldn't work.

Makes sense at first, but the point of a batting order in the first place is to cluster all of your best hitters together. Sure it gets rid of 1-2-3 innings, but it also throws at least one rally killer up there.

by Phizzle on May 20, 2008 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know about that.

You are basically restarting after the HR hitters are done. Everybody knows the HR is the real rally killer. So, if you follow Pujols and Ludwick with another set of OBP guys, then maybe you get a shorter frequency wave cycle. You are talking about a single cycle wave through the lineup by bunching your guys together. This will give you an higher peak in the middle, but maybe two cycles per trip through the order could still be effective.

As a fan, we all know the anticipation of a Pujols or Ludwick coming up with runners in scoring position, especially late in the game. Is there anything more frustrating than when that happens in the 8th inning? You know there is little chance to come back in the 9th if that doesn’t work. Maybe nybirdfan is on to something here. This still gives you a chance to get guys on base with guys to drive them in without having to wait for a full trip through the order.

by etp_stl on May 20, 2008 6:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As I think about this more

I realize that seeing Miles in the #5 spot could really be upsetting, but one must see that Miles is actually a number 2 lead off man. Right now he is getting on base at .360 clip and that isn’t horrible for what this line up is trying accomplish. Molina too has a decent obp. at 368. As long as Miles can get on base I think this could work. I wish I was still coaching I would try this. I coached a summer league for high school kids after school closed.

by nybirdfan on May 20, 2008 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Use the platoon OPS instead

It’s not useful to use the average OPS for players. You should use their platoon splits.

For example, let’s say that Duncan has a 900 OPS against RHP and 600 against LHP, which averages out to an 800. Instead of using the 800, you should use the 900 (if the opposing pitcher is a RHP) and the 600 (if a LHP).

Molina hits LHP pretty well but his splits against RHP suggest that he’s not a viable candidate there.

OPS Vs LHP

Albert 1378
Ludwick 1033
Yadi 971
Glaus 903
Ankiel 882
Izturis 822
Barton 721
Kennedy 679
Miles 639
Ryan 596
Skip 533
Larue 273
Duncan 180 (not a typo)

Versus RHP

Ludwick 1310
Albert 1001
Duncan 870
Ankiel 841
Skip 822
Glaus 748
Miles 748
Ryan 735
Yadi 651
Barton 642
Izturis 611
Kennedy 607
LaRue 524

For all the moaning about Duncan, anyone understand why Tony plays him against RHP and sits him against LHP?

Dave

by SydneyDave on May 20, 2008 6:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

My only modification to your criteria would be that I would suggest OBP rather than OPS for the 9 and 1 holes, possibly the 2 hole as well.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on May 21, 2008 7:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

how about this

Ryan
Molina
Pujols
Ludwick
Glaus
Ankiel
Duncan
Pitcher
Miles

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 22, 2008 2:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Some issues.

First, Ryan’s OBP (and OPS) was considerably lower than Miles’. Your lineup would also string all of the RH batters together and the LH batters together. I tried to separate that out with my lineup to keep from being susceptible to late-inning relief specialists.

BTW, did anybody notice that Schumaker has now overtaken Duncan in OPS? Both have a .370 OBP, but Schu has a .408 SLG% to Dunc’s .404. With Luddy on fire and Ank in CF, it’s getting harder to justify playing Dunc in LF over Barton and Schu.

by etp_stl on May 24, 2008 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

isolated power > slugging percentage

SLG counts singles, and players with a higher AVG will have higher a SLG. ISO=SLG-AVG. compare two players hitting .200/.400/.500 and .300/.400/.500 for example and the first one is hitting the ball considerably harder. they have the same SLG, though, and even the same OPS. this isn’t a comment on schumaker versus duncan, just a note on using SLG in a vacuum to measure power.

by astrostl on May 26, 2008 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks.

You are obviously right on the power comment. I was not trying to measure power between the two, but just indicate the overall results between the two. While Duncan does have the better ISO (by a lot), if he doesn’t provide that power at a clip that keeps up with Schumaker, then is he more valuable? I know that isn’t what you were commenting on, but that was the point I was trying to make.

Even if much of it is singles hitting, an OPS of nearly .800 is valuable. Couple that with his defense over Duncan’s and the fact that both are LH and struggle against LHP, and that is why I said it is difficult to justify Dunc over Schu. That, and Schu is the better leadoff option at that point. I would like to see Barton get his opportunities leading off against RHP, so that still leaves Dunc out in the cold.

by etp_stl on May 26, 2008 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Along these lines...

Hey everyone—First post here. As I finally subscribed to MLB.TV, I’ve really been thinking about this quite a bit. Like a typical baseball fan, I find myself thinking I’m smarter than every manager in the game! Kind of along these lines, I’ve been trying to figure out what some of the RedBirds’ opponents’ lineups should look like.

For example, if I were TLR’s ol’ buddy Lou Piniella, he of the big belly and slow walk to the mound, this is what I would run out most days:

Theriot
Fukudome
Lee
Soriano
Ramirez
Soto
DeRosa
Edmonds (makes me sick to type his name here)
Pitcher

I can’t fathom a ML manager batting Soriano leadoff all year. Of course, I can’t fathom not using Carlos Marmol as a closer, either, but that’s just me! I think you have to move Fukudome up, to get him those extra ABs and to get your best contact hitter where he belongs—in the 2 hole. Any thoughts on this?

This post is getting rather long, so I’ll put my proposed Dodgers lineup in another post.

Get up, baby! Get up!

by btaylor1978 on May 25, 2008 8:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And the Dogers lineup...

I know the Dodgers are banged up, so I’ll just put together the best lineup (IMHO) from their roster. I’ll tell you right now Andruw Jones will not be in it.

Furcal
Martin
Kemp
Loney
Ethier
DeWitt
Kent
Pierre
Pitcher

By the way, as I type this I’m watching the Reds and Padres play in the top of the 16th inning. And while I poke fun at Lou Piniella and Joe Torre, I have no delusions that I actually could put together a better lineup than them. Dusty Baker is another story, though. I’m completely confident I could build a better lineup than Dusty. I would start by not allowing Corey Patterson (0 for 8 so far today) to bat leadoff. There’s a great article on ESPN.com Page 2 about the Cubs century of suffering in which Dusty gets ribbed…a LOT.

Anyway, I’d love to hear some chatter on these lineup ideas, and any ideas you all may have for the RedBirds or other teams.

Get up, baby! Get up!

by btaylor1978 on May 25, 2008 9:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs