Did anyone honestly anticipate this?
by chuckb on May 18, 2008 2:13 AM EDT
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Let’s put some perspective on Ryan Ludwick’s first quarter of the season. After yesterday’s 2 homer, 3 RBI performance, he’s batting .336 w/ 10 HR’s and 28 RBI. That’ first on the team in homers and tied for 2nd in RBI – 1 behind Pujols. Not too shabby. However, he has only 116 AB’s and only 131 PA’s so far. Despite playing a quarter of the season and having as many homers as Derrek Lee and Ryan Braun, he doesn’t even have enough PA’s to qualify for the batting title.
Ludwick right now is 15th in baseball in VORP and 7th in baseball in VORP rate – VORP per plate appearance. Right now he’s averaging 10.59 runs created per 27 outs – 7th in baseball if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. Actually, that’s a lie. He was at 10.59 before his 2 homer, 1 walk performance yesterday afternoon. It’s certainly gone up after yesterday’s feats. He’s slugging .679 – 4th in baseball and his EQA is .348 – also 4th in the game. Though his OBP is a paltry .398, his OPS+ is 178. His OPS is 1.077. His isolated power is .348 – 3rd highest in baseball. By any measurable statistic, Ryan Ludwick has had a spectacular first 6 weeks.
Making his numbers even more spectacular is the fact that his raw numbers are so high (homers, RBI) and yet he doesn’t even have enough PA’s to qualify for the batting title. Of the top 30 hitters in baseball in terms of VORP, only 1 fails to qualify – Ryan Ludwick. In fact, Ludwick has taken only 7.3% of the team’s PA’s. This is the lowest percentage of team PA’s of any hitter among the top 138 hitters in baseball, as measured by VORP. (Kaz Matsui and Alfonso Soriano, 80th and 101st, respectively, have also taken only 7.3% of their team’s PA’s but they both have been injured and have served time on the DL this year.)
My point here isn’t to beat Tony up about Ludwick having so few PA’s, but rather to illustrate just how tremendous Ludwick has been so far this season. Imagine what his numbers would be like if he had Ankiel’s or Schumaker’s 151 AB’s rather than the 112 he had entering yesterday’s game. Still, at what point does Ludwick become an everyday player? If not now, when?
The Cardinals have had 1 day off this month – on the first day of the month. Since May 2, the Cards have played every day. In those 15 games, Ludwick has started 11 and subbed in the other 4. Even so, starting 11 out of 15 games is a pace to start fewer than 120 games during the course of the season. The way Ludwick is smacking the ball around, he should be option #1 in the outfield and yet he seems to be option #3. He has the 3rd most PA’s among the outfielders, behind Ankiel and Schumaker. The idea appears to be that they have to be written into the lineup ahead of Ludwick b/c they fill particular niches in our lineup. Ankiel is the CF and Schumaker is the leadoff man and b/c they seem, in Tony’s mind, to be the best fits for those roles, they are written in the lineup ahead of time and then Tony figures out who the 3rd OF will be. Ludwick’s performance to date strikes me as someone worthy of being an automatic inclusion into the OF and then they can choose from among the other 4 OF’s for the last 2 spots. Remember, he’s not just hitting well, he’s in Pujols company in almost every measure.
I wish I could say I saw this coming but I can’t. In fact, none of the preseason projections were even close to anticipating this kind of performance. Even the always astute LB, who in the offseason authored a favorable post about Ludwick didn’t seem to see this coming. Yes, I realize that it is a fairly small sample – 131 PA’s – but we are talking about a quarter of the season. It’s small but it’s not so small that we can’t look upon it and say, "Jesus Marimba, he’s having a hell of a good year so far!!!" It’s more predictive than Jayson Werth’s 3 homer, 8 RBI day , for example.
So why has Ludwick been so good this year. Is he more patient at the plate? No, not really. He’s seeing 4.0 pitches per plate appearance as opposed to 3.9 last year and 4.1 in his other big league appearances. He’s making better contact and striking out less, right? Nope, not so much. He’s striking out an astounding 30.4% of the time he comes to the plate – higher than the 23.8% he posted last year and the 27.4% he’s posted for his career.
It seems to me that he’s seeing the ball really well right now. Despite the fact that his # of pitches seen per plate appearance is the same as it’s been throughout his career, his walk rate is up slightly – to 11.1%. Last year it was 7.9% and for his career it’s 8.3%. His line drive rate is a whopping 35% and his infield fly rate is just 8.3%. Those rates are probably unsustainable throughout the season. Right now, the highest LD rate in baseball among hitters qualifying for the batting title is 29.8%. Last year, for the season, baseball’s highest line drive rate was 27.2%. 35% is huge. It’s not all luck as the ability to square up a ball the way Ludwick is right now is a skill. However, with the ebbs and flows of the baseball season, he likely won’t be able to continue spraying liners at his current pace all season long.
His BABIP is an unsustainably high .414 right now. There’s no way that can continue all season. Of course, it’s probably so high b/c he’s hitting so many line drives all over the yard. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not attributing Ludwick’s play so far this season to luck. Quite the contrary, there seems to be a distinct improvement in his skills at the plate. As LB pointed out in the post I referenced above, Ludwick was, at one time, a top prospect – one considered by scouts to have the potential to turn into a very good player. It’s rare that it happens when a player is 29, but Ludwick seems to have emerged as an above-average outfielder relatively late in his professional career.
A couple of weeks ago, I was excoriated by many here for having the audacity to suggest that the Cards would leave fewer runners on base if they had more power in the lineup. In making that bold and brash statement, I suggested playing Ludwick more often, possibly at the expense of Schumaker. Needless to say, I won’t dare make such an absurd suggestion again. I do bring it up, however, to make 1 more plea to see more of Ludwick. He should now be considered an everyday player. The Cards have 3 others – Pujols, Glaus, and Molina. They should play everyday, or just about everyday and Ludwick should now be among them. I realize that it may mean fewer PA’s for Skip, Rick, and Dunc but the bottom line is that, right now, Ludwick is our best outfielder (offensively) and, so far, has been one of baseball’s best hitters.
That last point needs to be underscored. Ludwick hasn’t just been "better than we expected" so far this year. As all the numbers at the beginning of this post imply, Ludwick has been one of BASEBALL’S best hitters for the 1st quarter of the season. Yes, there are still about 3 quarters of the season left and yes, his OPS+ is higher than he’s ever had, even considering the minors. Yes, his line drive rate and BABIP are probably unsustainable and his K rate is too high. I doubt that he’ll finish the year w/ an OPS of nearly 1.100 or an OPS+ of 178. But 30 homers isn’t unreasonable, IMO. The improvement in his walk rate demonstrates, along w/ the high LD rate and relatively high % of HR/FB, that his strike zone recognition has improved as has his ability to square up the ball. There is, in my opinion, a measurable improvement in his skills that, though he’ll level off some, could enable him to become a very good major league outfielder but he’s going to have to be on the field for that to happen.
In the past, he’s always struggled w/ lefties and though he’s still been better vs. righties than lefties this year, he has hit 5 HR in 57 PA’s off lefties so far in ’08. And he’s gotta be better than Duncan vs. lefties. As we begin to fill out those All-Star ballots, you don’t have to be too much of a homer to punch Ryan Ludwick’s square.
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Studwick is en fuego
All I can say is “Wow.” I recently argued for regularly starting Luddy over Duncan pretty much full time, but I sure didn’t expect THIS.
Ludwick has always been better defensively than Duncan, and now he’s hitting way better. AND he doesn’t suck against lefties like Duncan does.
Can this torrid pace continue? Maybe not at this pace, but damn…what a break-out.
I’ll say it again: Luddy should be taking Duncan’s spot in the order every game vs LH pitching, and I think he should start taking Schu’s starts against righties. Schu should become our #4 outfielder rather than an everyday player.
What I’d like to see:
vs RH pitchers:
LF – Duncan
CF – Ankiel
RF – Studwick
vs LH pitchers:
LF – Barton
CF – Ankiel
RF – Studwick
You can platoon Barton/Schumaker and put Studwick in left if you want so Skippy can go in RF. Doesn’t matter. When Ank needs a day off, give Skippy the start in CF.
Against RHers, bat Duncan and his good OBP at leadoff if you want. I don’t care.
But I agree wholeheartedly with HC. How can you not have Ludwick in the lineup damn near every game?
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on May 18, 2008 3:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agree.
Skip is the odd man out—late innings defense. Per Mr. Clean, platoon Dunc/Barton in LF.
What about AKennedy as lead-off again RHP?
by gocards62 on May 18, 2008 8:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How do you justify Barton over Schumaker?
I know that many here have a soft spot for the kid, but I don’t see the logic. Skip continues to have the higher average. His OBP is consistent with most leadoff hitters, and certainly on par with what we received from Eckstein over the last few years. His slugging is actually a little higher than Barton’s, right now. Both guys’ numbers have been regressing significantly from the beginning of the season, and Schumaker is the better defensive player. Schumaker can play all three positions, where Barton is really only a LF.
What am I missing?
by etp_stl on May 18, 2008 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not going to make a case for Barton over Skip
but why is Barton considered only a LF? This is something I see time and time again on this site and no real logic to it. His arm may be on the weak side but it’s not a Damon/Pierre arm and his range seems as good as any of our outfielders. I don’t get this sentiment at all.
by azruavatar on May 18, 2008 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I haven't watched him enough, so ...
honestly I am going with the information from Goold and the coaching staff. He has good range, but I can’t say that his defensive skills indicate that he belongs in CF (routes, arm, recognition off of the bat). That leaves RF. So, the question is how often does the arm strength come into play? What is the difference between LF and RF? The throw to 3B, right? How often is that required? Are teams going to start trying to take 3B more because Barton is in RF?
You probably have a case for him playing RF, though you would rather have a guy that can handle that throw to 3B, also.
by etp_stl on May 18, 2008 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd say there's less of a case for RF where the arm is more important
than there is for CF. Some of the routes are bad at times although I wonder how much that is because he plays like once a month. I just think that the defensive woes are kinda trumped up about Barton—although I don’t really have anything to back it up other than my own anecdotal observations.
by azruavatar on May 18, 2008 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would say ...
that the arm is more important in CF. The ball is hit there significantly more often, and compare the numbers of plays at the plate between hits to CF versus hits to RF. While the arm doesn’t have to be as strong, it has to be much more consistent with the strength and accuracy. I also haven’t checked any numbers, but my anecdotal evidence from the extremely limited times I’ve watched him play indicate that he has survived on speed in the OF and not yet developed his defensive skills. I believe in strength up the middle defensively, so I would have an hard time putting him in CF, from what I’ve seen.
by etp_stl on May 18, 2008 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just because Skip's OBP is about what we got from Eckstein
Doesn’t make it good. I wish we would improve in leadoff OBP from the Eckstein years.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on May 18, 2008 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I partially agree.
First, I think a .350-.360 OBP is good, not great from the leadoff spot. I would prefer to see a .370 to .390 out of the leadoff spot, but it seems like you have trouble finding that any more.
That said, where are we going to get that from right now? As the team is currently configured, who can provide the numbers you are talking about? Granted, Barton’s OBP is about 10 points higher, but is that significant enough? LaRussa is not going to take advantage of his basestealing ability, so that can’t be used in his favor.
I just don’t see the case, yet for Barton.
by etp_stl on May 18, 2008 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Li'l Dunc can lead off if he starts
And Barton is almost a prototypical leadoff guy with his speed.
Good luck finding a .370-.390 OBP leadoff guy nowadays.
But Duncan’s OBP is .364, and that’s been consistent his whole career so far.
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on May 18, 2008 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The fact is ...
that we don’t have a prototypical leadoff hitter on this team. Barton has speed, but he has to show me that he can get on base against RHP & LHP equally. His average has dropped significantly, but that may be due to lack of use.
I don’t see the Duncan idea as awful. If he finds his power stroke back, I would have an hard time hitting him in a spot that doesn’t take advantage of that. Right now, though, he is providing more than what you are probably getting from the other guys. My primary concern from the leadoff spot is OBP, not OPS. I want the highest OBP I can get without sacrificing run production.
by etp_stl on May 18, 2008 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But we have the "double leadoff"
So hitting Dunc #1 is really like hitting him #2 after the 1st. And everyone’s fine with that, right?
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on May 18, 2008 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It depends.
If his power stroke comes back, I might want him lower in the order. It will depend on if Ludwick and Glaus continue to drive in runs. If so, then I agree with you. If one or both slow down, then you will need Duncan’s production. As I said, I don’t think it is an awful idea, by any means.
by etp_stl on May 18, 2008 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're right
We don’t have someone with that kind of OBP ability as the team is currently configured (the jury is still out on BB IMO). I was just saying I think we should strive for/want more than just an Eckstein in the leadoff spot.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on May 18, 2008 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would like to see better, too.
That said, the last time we had a leadoff hitter with better OBP numbers than Eckstein was the first year with Vina at .380.
If you look over the last decade:
2000, Vina, .380
2001, Vina, .357
2002, Vina, .333
2003, Vina, .309 Hart, .317
2004, Womack, .349
2005, Eckstein, .363
2006, Eckstein, .350
2007, Eckstein, .356
2008, Schumaker, .353
If you look at those numbers, it is hard to argue with what Eckstein or Schumaker have provided. That is a pretty successful run of baseball over that time, and it looks like an average OBP of .351.
by etp_stl on May 18, 2008 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's confounding if I've ever seen it
It was a pretty successful run because of Edmonds-Pujols-Rolen + the likes of Walker/Renteria/Sanders/and largely dominant defense with solid pitching, not the mediocre leadoff spot post-2000.
With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch
by joker24 on May 18, 2008 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It seems like this has been a trend.
The Cards haven’t been the only ones. Just a quick run of the WS winners over that time frame.
2000, NYY, Knoblauch, .366
2001, ARI, Counsell, .359
2002, LAA, Eckstein, .363
2003, FLA, Pierre, .361
2004, BOS, Damon, .380
2005, CWS, Podsednik, .351
2006 , STL, Eckstein, .350
2007, BOS, group so tough to measure but Ellsbury ended up .394 at the end of the season.
So, about a .361 ave OBP over that time span (excluding last year cause its confusing). That is 10 points higher than the Cards for the best teams during those years, and Vina’s best .380 matches with the best over that span. I don’t know that you can say definitively that the Cards are significantly underperforming versus the league over that time span.
by etp_stl on May 18, 2008 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Barton won't start consistently
and he shouldn’t either
by birdman3000 on May 18, 2008 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What is your vendetta against Barton?
It seems that’s all you post about on this site.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on May 18, 2008 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For the record...
I’ve never seen any kind of post from him other than unsubstantiated cheap shots.
Way to contribute, Birdman. Enlighten us with more of your troll wisdom.
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on May 18, 2008 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ya, I almost said something challenging his trolling
but decided meh,dont feed the trolls
by FunkeeC on May 18, 2008 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For the record...
I’ve never seen any kind of post from him other than unsubstantiated cheap shots.
Way to contribute, Birdman. Enlighten us with more of your troll wisdom.
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on May 18, 2008 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The one above in this thread "Why so insistent..." is the only out of 19 comments I can find that is remotely constructive
With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch
by joker24 on May 18, 2008 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm luddy's biggest fan
well, maybe besides Eric Ludwick , Ryan’s older brother—ELudwick on that forum ( who was traded from the cardinals as part of the McGwire deal). but even I didn’t think he’d be THIS good. I thought he’d be an Aaron Rowand in Philly/Carlos Lee in texas kind of guy, .860-.900 OPS with the potential for a .950 peak season (it is his age-29 year, after all, and despite what BP etc studies [that include MIF’s and pitchers] say, imho that is the year that tall, muscular slugging OF-types peak). Of course, there is still a lot of time to regress, and he’s still in a spot where an 0-22 drops him to .960.
Anyway, Luddy has actually been very unlucky, so far. In yesterday’s game thread, we were talking about luddy vs berkman- berkman has a ~.380 BABIP despite a ~17% line drive rate, while Luddy has a .414 BABIP despite a 35% line drive rate. A 35% LD rate is insane; he won’t maintain that. but he’s HAD it, so far, and based on research by BP’s Marc Normandin which indicates that a first-order approximation of BABIP based on LD rate is LD rate + .120, he should have about a .470 BABIP. between the two breakout candidates, if you can call berkman a breakout candidate (probably not), Luddy is the most likely to maintain his performance as long as he doesn’t change his approach, and provided pitchers don’t find some weakness to exploit.
Some other things do make me think Luddy could be a true all-star caliber player (and I’m shooting from the hip here, as it is midnight, I’ve got a grad school paper to finish, and the GF came up so I’m in a hurry to get back to bed). First off, Ludwick was a very highly touted prospect. he was drafted in the second round, and was traded for carlos Pena and a LOOGY (with riff raff on both sides). In the Texas organization in 2002, his offensive capability (as a CF candidate!, before the hip injury) was ranked higher by some scouts that travis hafner.
Unfortunately, Luddy was hurt in texas (ironically injured by pena, the guy he ws traded for), then traded to cleveland for beans, where he found himself buried under (gasp) former AL MVP Juan Gonzales, and then when Gonzales failed, Sizemore stepped up (goold had an excellent article about this in S.T., which I don’t have the energy to look for). Luddy never got a fair shake in CLE.
Anyway, one of the interesting things about Ludwick is that Mo was one of the guys who scouted him “way back when”, before he was even drafted, IIRC. Luddy was brought into this organization because Mo remembered what he saw, and gave him a shot when no one else was willing to. major kudos to Mo on that one.
Tw other things come to mind. First off, he has a history of being poor against lefties. It has been shown by tango and others that reverse splits are not predictive until after ~3000 MLB PA’s. Obviously luddy has not had that kind of MLB playing time. His “RHB vs RHP” splits are excellent, though only ~.860, and his “RHB vs LHP” splits should be expected to regress upwards. They should actually end up somewhat higher, 20-30 points but possibly much more, than the “vs RHP”. Eric ludwick says that it’s just been bad luck against lefties; he doesn’t have any trouble seeing the ball, loves hitting against lefties, etc. i am tempted to believe him and assign the bizarre split to the demon of sample size, unless someone can prove otherwise. he does have more HR/PA against lefties than righties, and the contact side of hitting is the most fickle when it comes to luck.
The other factor is that Luddy reworked his swing over the winter. It was reported by several sources during S.T., including Goold, that he worked on shortening his stroke to be better able to handle the inside pitch. If that is truly the case, and it seems to have been effective, then he could be for real. i mean, not 200 OPS+ for real, but .950 OPS in STL.
And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...
by SleepyCA on May 18, 2008 3:33 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I knew you'd chime in
As I remember, you have been singing his praises since the middle of last season…and you did, in fact, predict a >.850 OPS season out of Ludwick.
I tended to agree with you then….but what we’re seeing now is simply gravy.
With the news that Ankiel may be going to the DL, Ludwick is gonna be our full-time RF for the foreseeable future.
by silent_bob on May 18, 2008 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know you are
I almost made some reference to you in the thread but at 1 am didn’t want to take the time to figure out how.
by chuckb on May 18, 2008 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Supplement to above....
Ryan Ludwick has always had a spot reserved in the minds of anybody that watched Jason Hart play ball in high school in SW MO, at Missouri State and go on to hit 174 HRs in the minors while being part of the Oakland to Texas trade with Ludwick, Pena etc.
They were roomates/friends and were interviewed together by SI in 2001/2? as projected future MLBers. A sad story for Hart, battled a brain tumour and never made the bigs except for a brief stint in 2002 with Tex. He should have made it, sadly. Both he and Ludwick had their share of health problems, but both could rake the ball coming up thru the ranks. I think Hart gave up on a comeback after playing last year for the Midland Rockhounds at AA level.
To answer the question re: anticipating Ludwoods season….. like SleepyCA, if I wasnt lazy as well, I’d go back and locate posts from VEBers (some prior to lboros) saying that he would hit in 08 if healthy and if he got the ABs from La Russa.
I said I thought he made Duncans power numbers a trade commodity in a post in Dec. to a team needing DH or 1st baseman help for an infield pospect.
So yeah, maybe not the AVG. or OPS. he has currently, but SleepyCA especially and many posters had projected Ludwick to be a very capable MLB hitter quite a ways back.
by cardschinmusic on May 18, 2008 5:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Deja vu
This post is the very points I’ve been making for about two weeks now. I don’t care whether Duncan’s raw hitting skills are better than Lud’s, Lud is one of the most reliable hitters on the planet at the plate right now and this is the time when he should be playing non-stop.
Star Lud. Over everyone. Over poster-boy Ankiel, even. I don’t care. Ludwick needs to be in the lineup while he’s this white hot.
by mojowo11 on May 18, 2008 6:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
At this point, ...
do you really think that Duncan’s pure hitting skills are significantly better than Ludwick? If you look at their career numbers in terms of OPS, OPS+, SLG%, BA, OBP Ludwick is just a little lower than Duncan in all of those categories. The overall production between the two guys has been fairly similar, and if Ludwick has figured something out this year then maybe he can close that gap between the two. Granted, he’s 3 years older, and he needs to extend this out over the season.
When you look at sample size, Duncan’s numbers are significantly better due to 2006 in 314 PA. So, over the course of half of a season in his first season, Duncan put up some very impressive numbers.
He seemed to carry those on through the first half of last year, so maybe he can sustain those. Maybe injury is the reason that Duncan’s numbers have been down for the last 3/4 of a season (half last year, quarter this year). He seems to be finding his power stroke back. His batting eye seems to be pretty good this year, but his swing has so much motion that I wonder how he fairs with age. Also, at this point his lower numbers have lasted almost as long as his stretch of high offensive numbers. Which is the real Chris Duncan?
On top of that, he is ANOTHER LH OF on this team that seems to be overrun with them. On any team that doesn’t have his dad as a coach, I would say that Ludwick (and the next LH OF, Rasmus) make Duncan expendable. Not because he is a bad player, but because he is valuable but a bad fit here. I’m afraid that the daddy-coach factor may end up making Ludwick the guy that gets traded. He will be an hot commodity at the trade deadline if he takes advantage of Ankiel going on the DL.
Just my opinion. What do you guys think?
by etp_stl on May 18, 2008 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The real question is kind of what happens now
the other teams are going to start looking at video of Ludwick, and try to find the holes in his swing. Let’s see how he adjusts.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on May 18, 2008 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes play him
well, yes. You would think Tony would notice.
Duncan is the one that should sit. He is the least talented fielder on the team. He has cost us more than a few games in the field with dropped balls and balls hit to the wall that would have been caught by Ludwick. Schumaker can lead off Barton can lead off and Duncan can not. Do you really want Miles or Izturis leading off? The only lefty righty spit that makes sense to me is Duncan and Barton off the bench. Ludwick’s play allows Tony to sit Albert one day a week.
Izzy is the number one reason we have fewer wins, Duncan’s play in the field and at the plate is the number two reason we have less wins than we should.
by leftcoastfan on May 18, 2008 6:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why can't Duncan lead off?
You make it seem like it’s an impossibility. I’ve heard others say the same thing.
Duncan’s OBP this year is .364. That’s perfectly in line with his career OBP of .357. Both of those numbers are (slightly) higher than Skip’s OBP this year, and significantly better than his career OBP line (.339).
Duncan has always had a good batting eye, so why not let him lead off? Because’s he’s not short and scrappy? Because he hits too many home runs?
I’m seriously asking. I think he’d be a fine leadoff.
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on May 18, 2008 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's no reason
he can’t. If you are basically making the decision because of footspeed and a lower SLG%, that’s pretty much ridiculous. Optimizing a batting order is fine obviously, but leaving a better player on the bench because the other guy fits some profile for a spot in the lineup is insane.
‘He hits for too many extra bases, can’t have that in the one-spot. We need guys on first base in the first inning, not solo homers or standing on second. Not unless they steal.’ I still can’t believe that people still treat it like a position. Who is your best LF? RF? CF? OK, now sort out the lineup.
I bet Schumaker and Duncan are close to a wash though when you consider defense. Personally I’d like to trade them both if we can get a decent return ASAP.
by haltz on May 18, 2008 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ludwick can qualify!
According to the MLB stat leaders, Ludwick has been given enough at bats to qualify and be ranked among the top in any statistic.
by jcarro197 on May 18, 2008 7:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
really?
in order to qualify, one needs 3.1 AB’s per game. Ludwick’s at 116 AB’s for the season and the Cards have played 45 games. That means he should have 139.5 (140?) AB’s to qualify. Additionally, neither the hardball times nor fangraphs include him among hitters that currently qualify.
by chuckb on May 18, 2008 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm a day late, and this will probably never be read
But the rule is 3.1 Plate Appearance (PAs) per game, not 3.1 At Bats (ABs) per game.
A player needs 162 * 3.1 PAs for a season (assuming a team plays all 162 games, of course), or 502.
The Cards have played 46 games, which means Ludwick needs 142.6 PAs to qualify.
He had 138 PAs as of Saturday and got 5 PAs today, so his season total should be 143, so he should now qualify for the title.
Dave
by SydneyDave on May 18, 2008 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
AAAA guys
Personnally I am a believer in most any AAAA player, including Lud. I agree his numbers are not sustainable, but it isn’t surprising to se him emerge as an (at least) average OFer.
The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!
by Zubin on May 18, 2008 8:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Anticipation
This comment is off-topic as far as Ludwick goes, and is purely armchair stuff. However, during the winter, I wondered why we let Troy Percival go. Off course, he wanted to be a closer. But, in pure retrospect, if we had paid him as a closer to do the 8th inning, we would not have the problems that we do now. Again, I know that this is after the fact, but I wish we had him in the pen now. Wishful thinking now. Come on AAA guys!
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on May 18, 2008 8:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Percival was offered a lot of money ...
to be an 8th inning guy by the Yankees. He wasn’t interested. He knows his remaining career is short, and he wants to close. They said on the game the other day that he would have come back to St. Louis if he couldn’t find a closer gig. He did, and that was all there was too it.
I agree. It would be nice to have him over Springer or Franklin, but it just wasn’t what he wanted.
by etp_stl on May 18, 2008 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He'll get his chance to start all the next two weeks
if this Ankiel to the DL thing comes through. That will make him our biggest OF power threat. Of course, then we’ll have a huge contingent of people wanting Tony to start Mather too.
by enoscountry on May 18, 2008 8:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
DL
Been in the boondocks. Is Ank really going to the DL? I like the Mather call. During ST I was hoping that he was retained instead of Brian – in part because he is versatile and can play the inf corners. Ank on DL, who plays CF everyday – Skippy? I don’t see anyone else that can go there.
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on May 18, 2008 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Skip in CF
Yep he will be playing there every day I’m guessing – leaving Ludwick in right and Duncan and (Barton/Mather) in platoon in left. Thank God Mather doesn’t have a reverse split, at least not through this season.
by enoscountry on May 18, 2008 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which is unfortunate because skip has completely
reverted to his crappy hitting ways. Ludwick could get by in CF although I wouldn’t flank him with Mather and Duncan at the same time.
by azruavatar on May 18, 2008 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And skip...
Can’t field nearly as was as Ankiel in center field.
by Evilfrog on May 18, 2008 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shudder
Duncan and Mather in the outfield at the same time. Two converted infielders. Blech.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on May 18, 2008 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OF
I don’t quite see why it should be Dunc in LF. I like TLR because he goes with who is hot, so my take is Ski sonce he is the only CF, Lud RF, and let Joe have first call at LF for a few games, with Barton/Dunc as the backup. Or Dunc if you think that he is hot?
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on May 18, 2008 9:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
unfortunately TLR doesnt go with who is hot
or we wouldnt have been arguing for Luddy to get more playing time for the past 3 weeks!!!!
and he also wouldnt be playing Skippy so much since he’s fallen back to where he should be, which is producing like a 5th outfielder.
by gossard56 on May 18, 2008 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK
so who is yur OF with Ank on DL):
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on May 18, 2008 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
start
Luddy, Duncan/Mather/Barton. Ludwick can handle CF
by gossard56 on May 18, 2008 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cool
I didn’t think that Luddy had the range.
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on May 18, 2008 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ankiel going to DL. Mather coming up.
Just postd on STLtoday.com.
I am the only/last Anthony Reyes fan!
by dangpenguins on May 18, 2008 9:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I gotta say I SAW THIS COMING!
well, maybe not at this kind of level, but based on last year and his former prospect status AND the fact he was fully healthy, i figured he could be a 30hr 100rbi +900ops guy if he got the playing time.
I’ve argued for Ludwick all season in the game threads and in my fanpost regarding playing him over Duncan. I’ll argue with Sleepy over who is actually his biggest fan ;-) (it might actually be my dad and not me or sleepyCA).
Anyway, i dont really have anything else to add that hasnt been said, I said it all in my fanpost and now HC and Sleepy have said it plus some again in this thread. The worst feeling about all this is i still don’t feel like TLR is going to be playing him everyday.
by gossard56 on May 18, 2008 9:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Coming
No doubts about the need to have Luddy in the lineup, but CF? Speed?
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on May 18, 2008 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ludwick originally was a CF prospect
and he’s played there for the Cards a few times last year, not sure about so far this year.
by gossard56 on May 18, 2008 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
D.O.L.T.
:-)
"A hot dog at the ball game beats roast beef at the Ritz."- Humphrey Bogart
by iron duke75 on May 18, 2008 9:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So you still think he should lead off???? BOOB
by birdman3000 on May 18, 2008 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why so insistent on the term "Everyday player"
Ludwick is hot as hell right now and should be playing everyday until he cools off or someone else gets the hot hand. With that said, I don’t see the need for an official proclamation giving title to the new everyday player. It’s baseball, it’s fluid. What if duncs power numbers heat up big time, or schu goes on a tear and is hitting .315 again or Mather comes up and kicks ass. You can fall in love with the new darling but after 131 PAs I wouldn’t fall head-over-heals. I hope he keeps it up he is a fun player to watch but so are the others when they’re in the zone.
by birdman3000 on May 18, 2008 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I prefer D.O.L.T.
There should be a D.O.L.T. club we can all join… :-)
"A hot dog at the ball game beats roast beef at the Ritz."- Humphrey Bogart
by iron duke75 on May 18, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cool
nice alignment. I didn’t think that L
by kkkkathmandubirdsview on May 18, 2008 9:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
let's not get crazy
Ludwick’s made some great plays in Right this year, but mostly because he took the wrong path to the ball. I love Ry but CF, c’mon…
by duncan dip on May 18, 2008 10:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If Ankiel goes on DL
If Ankiel goes on the DL than I assume Skip is taking over CFer. Can Ludwick play CF still if Skip needs a day off?
I am really excited to see what Mather can do.
by FlimtotheFlam on May 18, 2008 10:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't see what the other option is
La Russa clearly doesn’t trust Barton’s defense, and only a lunatic would put Duncan in center.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on May 18, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But he trust Duncans which is a huge joke
At least Barton is fast enough to make up for taking a bad line to the ball
by poohrat on May 18, 2008 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
irrespective,
Ludwick has to be the backup CF now, and assuming that we’re never going to play Barton and Duncan simultaneously, i think we have Ludwick in RF, Skippy in CF and Barton versus lefties and Duncan versus righties in RF with spot starts by Mather for at least the next 14 days.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on May 18, 2008 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
At least Duncan
Plays close enough to make a play on the ball….Skippy im looking at you.
by Evilfrog on May 18, 2008 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ankiel not going on DL
just posted on STLToday
The only one who liked the Cardinals so much he became a St. Louis Cardinals football fan.
by coachnick39 on May 18, 2008 12:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I didn't want
I didn’t want to see Ankiel on the DL but sure wanted to see what Mather was made of in the big leagues.
by FlimtotheFlam on May 18, 2008 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree 100%
I think that we have to figure out if Brian Barton can help us long-term. If he isnt going to be better than Mather, Ankiel, Ludwick, Rasmus, Duncan, Stavinoha, guys like that, then we need to seriously consider bringing up Mather and seeing what the Indians want for Barton so that we can send him down.
The only one who liked the Cardinals so much he became a St. Louis Cardinals football fan.
by coachnick39 on May 18, 2008 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where/When would Mather play
with all this talk about who deserves playing time, I would be hesitant to add a prospect to the mix who would end up sitting more than playing. Barton is filling a nice spot right now at a cheap Rule 5 price of $50,000 + league minimum. Look at the $$$ as a signing bonus to draft a high minors ready player. Mather can continue to gain experience full time in Memphis to be ready for 2009.
by ubeddie on May 18, 2008 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think TLR needs to use the next couple of weeks
to determine whether Schumaker is the everyday player he wants him to be, or whether he is as helpless against LHPs as he has looked this season. .175/.267/.200 is wretched and unacceptable. While I would concede that he has a good throwing arm and seems to have the speed to be a CF, he seems to take forever to get to the ball. He has also taken some pretty wierd routes this year, although those have been in the corner OF positions.
Skip showed he was able to hit LHPs last season, .375/404/.375, so I guess that is why TLR is trying to convince Skip , and the rest of us, that he can be an everyday hitter. To me, if you are a strictly a singles hitter as Skip is against LHPs and you don’t steal bases, then you better be an OBP machine to get playing time. Especially since our MIFs are so offensively limited. With Skip playing CF we might be the weakest up the middle of any MLB team, especially against LHPs.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on May 18, 2008 12:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
When will we just play Luddy, Ank, and Dunc together
That will give us 5 power bats in the lineup at the same time and give us the ability to spread the power.
LINEUP
Ryan-ss
Ankiel-cf
Pujols-1b
Duncan-lf
Glaus-3b
Ludwick-rf
Molina-c
p
Kennedy-2b
Really kinda eliminates sustained dead spots in the order
The only one who liked the Cardinals so much he became a St. Louis Cardinals football fan.
by coachnick39 on May 18, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like the power bats.
Especially, since Ludwick and Duncan have good OBP numbers, also. I have to say that I would still have Izturis in there, right now. If you look at his numbers, he is still the best leadoff candidate we have if you take Barton and Schumaker out of the picture. I know it seems counter-intuitive, but look at the numbers between the options (Kennedy, Ryan, and Izturis).
Ryan .298/.322/.333 (w/ .347 BABIP)
Kennedy .270/.322/.315 (w/ .319 BABIP)
Izturis .252/.346/.297 (w/ .267 BABIP)
It’s hard to look at any of them as world-beaters from the leadoff spot, but you have to go with OBP from that spot. In addition, you have to think that Ryan’s BABIP will regress downward, and that Izturis’ will come up. Kennedy looks to be about what you are going to get out of him. JMO.
by etp_stl on May 18, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why we need
This why we need to upgrade at either SS or 2B badly. We need one of those positions that can lead off. I also cried when I noticed Grudz was leading the AL in batting Avg.
by FlimtotheFlam on May 18, 2008 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
why bat Duncan Clean up?
It makes more sense to Bat Lud 4th since he hits
by poohrat on May 18, 2008 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Skip vs. LHP
I really hope Tony isn’t basing Skip’s ability to hit LHP on his 24 at-bats last season.
by WhiteGold on May 18, 2008 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope so, too
but what else could it be? I guess we are just not baseball men and can’t see like TLR/Dunc can see.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on May 18, 2008 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This will seem very odd, but hear me out.
What do you think of Molina in the 2 hole? His splits are .299/.367/.388 (w/ .297 BABIP), right now. He isn’t providing that “damage” that LaRussa talks about, but his OBS is significantly better than what we have gotten out of Kennedy in that spot. Also, while I wouldn’t typically want his blazing speed that high in the batting order, you aren’t going to steal in front of Pujols anyway. This will push the power down one spot, and it still eliminates the “dead spot.”
Just an idea, what do you think?
by etp_stl on May 18, 2008 1:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't like it
TLR did it the other day, and I didn’t like it then. I can’t understand why Tony ditched putting AK in the 2-hole so quickly. It seemed to be working quite well.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on May 18, 2008 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why not?
I’m not totally against Kennedy there, since he did seem to be producing there. I’m okay with you disagreeing with Molina there, but I’m curious as to the reasoning. Why such strong feelings against? What is the reasoning?
by etp_stl on May 18, 2008 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mostly just feeling
Having your slowest player batting #2 just doesn’t feel right. I’m trying to get over the “traditional” baseball knowledge, but it doesn’t feel right.
Anyway, other than feelings, I guess I could point to a couple of things. His OBP this season is a health .367, which certainly would help. However, he’s usually batting 7th, ahead of the pitcher, so how many of his 15 BB’s were due to him being pitched around? He only has 1 IBB, but I wonder how many UIBB he has (of course, there’s no way of measuring this).
Also, another thing based on his speed, is that he always has the possibility of GIDP if the leadoff guy gets on first. That is not good in front of Pujols.
That’s about all I can say. It just doesn’t feel right. I sound like an old scout or something. Like I said, I’d like to see Kennedy get more shots up there, and leave Molina lower in the order.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on May 18, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Every spot in the
order gets 18 more PA than the one behind it. There’s a great chapter in The Book about lineup optimization, and there’s more that goes into it than simply giving your better hitters more plate appearances, but it’s a good start. Seeing Schumaker who didn’t even slug .400 in the minors, followed by someone like Miles makes me nauseous.
by haltz on May 18, 2008 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I did some homework.
It turns out that Yadi has actually hit out of the 6th slot more than the 7th (19 GS vs. 15 GS). He has 1 IBB and 5 convential BBs out of the 7th slot. He has 10 BBs out of the 6th slot. He hits at a clip of .310/.390/.408 out of the 6th slot. He hits .273/.333/.364 out of the 7th slot. So, it doesn’t seem as though he has overtly benefitted from hitting in front of the pitcher. I still think he has the ability to be a good number 2 hitter, given that speed in front of Pujols is less used. You aren’t going to steal bases in front of him, and doing an hit-and-run in front of him is kind of wasteful.
I know it is unconventional to look at a guy that slow that high up in the order, but I still think there is a case that can be made. Kennedy was performing, but his numbers are quite a bit worse than Molina’s. I know we have a problem at the bottom of the lineup already, but that would seem to make it more important to get guys on early.
by etp_stl on May 18, 2008 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pujols gets
lots of hits. All things equal, you’d like someone to not go station to station when he does. It’s not just about putting plays on. But aside from that, Yadi has a career .235 EQA. I wouldn’t go putting him at the top of the order.
by haltz on May 18, 2008 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree his career numbers have been bad,
but if you look at his last two years he has almost an identical BABIP (.295 vs. .297). He had an OBP of .340 last year, and he has an OBP of .367 this year. He isn’t going to hit for much power, and his speed works against him. But if you look at the OBP of the other guys in the lineup, he’s outperforming both guys you might hit in the leadoff spot (Schumaker & Barton). It seems like his numbers are sustainable, although it is always interesting to see if a catcher can do it in Aug. and Sept. I don’t know that you can dismiss it so quickly.
by etp_stl on May 18, 2008 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The last two years
is actually 500 at-bats in this case. I’m certainly not saying that he’s as bad as he was in 2006, but I wouldn’t put money on him being a .280-.290 hitter just yet either. He’s extremely slow, and doesn’t hit a ton of line drives or hit the ball especially hard. The ones he does hit hard usually stay in the ballpark though, so at least he’s got that going for him from the BABIP perspective. He also has an unsustainable K-rate at this point, which helps his BA.
He has been doing very well this year so far though. Even if we toss it all out and just say that 2007 is what we should expect going forward, I wouldn’t put a slow .258 EQA in the 2-slot. Yadi’s a valuable player considering position and defense as a slightly below-average hitter, but give those at-bats to a better offensive player.
by haltz on May 19, 2008 1:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Check out Barton's splits vs. LHPs
.270/.413/.378 I don’t know what the dude is going to hit, but I have been very impressed with his batting eye. He was also a high OBP guy at every level of MiLB. He is the obvious lead off choice against lefties from the extremely thin candidate pool.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on May 19, 2008 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lineups per Gameday
TB
Iwamura 2B
Crawford LF
Upton CF
Pena 1B
Longoria 3B
Hinske RF
Navarro C
Zobrist SS
Jackson P
STL
Schumaker CF
Miles 2B
Pujols 1B
Ludwick RF
Glaus 3B
Duncan LF
LaRue C
Lohse P
Izturis SS
I hate it. At least Luddy is getting his due.
Also, is Ank or isn’t he going on the DL? There were two separate posts in this thread contradicting each other. Both cited stltoday.com
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on May 18, 2008 1:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think not
I never saw on the P-D page that he was going and now the Goold piece expressly says he will not go on the DL. I think the person who said he was misread the article which said he “might” go on the DL.
by OCCardsFan on May 18, 2008 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
rotoworld misread it too, then
(left side of veb front page)
by baw on May 18, 2008 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rotoworld says Ankiel "could" land on the DL
and that the Org is preparing to call up Mather. I don’t see that as saying that Ankiel is going on the DL as was posted earlier.
We now know that he is not going on the DL.
by OCCardsFan on May 18, 2008 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They changed
PD changed the article, They first said it looks like he was going on the DL and Mather was coming up. Citing Mather sitting out last night games even though he was red hot. Than they went back and changed it saying now he was not going on the DL
by FlimtotheFlam on May 18, 2008 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not going
He is not going on the DL as of now, I hate to say it but Miles is actually playing pretty good right now
by FlimtotheFlam on May 18, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They just said on the pregame ...
that he is not going on the DL. They were thinking about, but that it isn’t going to be necessary.
by etp_stl on May 18, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The very sight of this lineup makes my shoulders tense up
Let’s hope they prove me wrong. Here’s to a 4-for-5, 6 RBI day from LaRue.
"Well, folks, this game began as a tiny worm and is blossoming into a large cobra." - Mike "The Moon Man" Shannon
by Tudor's Electric Fan on May 18, 2008 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LaRue hits for the cycle
And then picks a random teenage girl out of the crowd and takes her to the local La Quinta for some nookie.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on May 18, 2008 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Complete with video crew
With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch
by joker24 on May 18, 2008 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why is kennedy not getting starts this year?
I could understand starting Miles in his place last year, but Kennedy is actually kind of hitting, at least for average, this year
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on May 18, 2008 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Edwin Jackson is a RHP too. The “Miles has scandalous pictures of TLR” joke is seeming more real by the day…
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on May 18, 2008 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Technically
Kennedy has done nothing against righthanders this year and Miles has. Doesn’t fall in line with career norms but that’s probably what he’s looking at???
With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch
by joker24 on May 18, 2008 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
Track 'em Tigers - An SB Nation Blog for Auburn Tigers fans
by Mr Redbird on May 18, 2008 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm wondering.
Do I have a blind spot when it comes to Miles? I hate seeing the guy out there, but his numbers aren’t bad. His offensive numbers are definitely better than Kennedy’s (.310/.362/.345 vs. .270/.322/.315), and his defense hasn’t been bad (lgRF9 4.80 at 2B). He should NEVER play another position on the IF, but maybe I’m wrong at 2B. I still think he wears out in the summer heat, so you will be back to Kennedy later anyway.
Are my eyes just wrong about this guy?
by etp_stl on May 18, 2008 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Miles due to regress
He has pretty consistently been a .320ish OBP guy with an OPS+ in the low to mid 70s throughout his career. Currently at .362 and 88 with most of his noise coming as a left-handed hitter. Will not sustain current .367 BABIP againts RHPs
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on May 18, 2008 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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