the month that was

by lboros on May 1, 2008 9:08 AM EDT Comment 167 comments

buzz bissinger might not like will leitch’s blogging, but he’s got to respect the dude’s managing. with 158 games down and 4 left, leitch still has the 1986 Replay Cardinals in first place by a game over the pond scum. they play their last home game of the season tonight against the pirates (4th place, 6 games under .500), then finish the regular season on the road at wrigley (the sim cubs are in last place at 68-91); the mets are at montreal (5th place) today and at home over the weekend against the pirates.

the sim-86s' performance is nearly as surprising as the real team’s. it’s only 30 games --- mostly at home, against bad teams --- but they do count. can we conclude anything from them at all? being historically inclined, i went back and looked at all the cardinal teams of the last 50 years that won at least 18 of their first 30 games:

year	thru 30	next 30	final	place
2006	18-12	18-12	83-78	1st
2005	19-11	20-10	100-62	1st
2000	19-11	14-16	95-67	1st
1983	18-12	14-16	79-83	4th
1982	19-11	17-13	92-70	1st
1981	20-10	10-10*	59-43	1st*
1977	19-11	15-15	83-79	3d
1968	20-10	16-14	97-65	1st
1967	19-11	19-11	101-60	1st
1964	18-12	11-19	93-69	1st
1963	18-12	16-14	93-69	2d

this list is too encouraging. out of the 11 teams who played as well in april as the 2008 cardinals, 8 went on to finish with the best record in their division (one of them, the 1981 team, didn’t appear in the postseason because of the strike). that vastly overstates the current team’s chances of winning the division, in my opinion; i still think they’re way below a 50-50 shot, but they’re obviously better than 1 in 15 shot (which is about where i would have put them heading into the year). a more realistic way to frame this is to note that all but one of the teams finished over .500, with the lone exception (1983) finishing pretty close and staying in contention into september. in the last 50 years the cards have never had a completely fraudulent april --- ie, a very hot start by a team that later proved to be no good at all. that doesn’t mean it can’t happen this year, of course --- but if it does, it’ll be a surprise. based on what we’ve seen so far, the odds are that this is at least a .500 team.

we should also note that a majority of these teams slipped in the 2d set of 30 games:

1st 30	2d 30	final
.627	.531	.567

the tendency to fall off in games 31 through 60 was particularly marked among the three "fresh start" teams on this list --- the teams that, like the 2008 team, entered the season significantly made over from the year before. the 1977 cards were the first in 12 years to be managed by someone other than red schoendienst --- new manager (vern rapp), new no-nonsense (and no facial-hair) style. the 1981 team was the first to open the season under whitey herzog’s leadership; they had a new catcher, new second baseman, new right fielder, new closer, and above all new speed-n-defense philosophy. and the 2000 cards had a almost completely new rotation --- the only two holdovers were ankiel and stephenson, who combined for just 17 starts in 1999) --- plus new starters at 2b and cf. each of those teams started the year with something to prove --- all were coming off sub-.500 finishes the previous year --- and came roaring out of the gate, but couldn’t sustain the momentum and dropped back to .500 in the next 30 games.

the 2008 cards are a pretty good candidate to suffer that kind of a lag, and here’s why: they don’t pitch very well on the road. it’s very early, but they’re exhibiting a home-road split that’s consistent with one that has existed ever since the cardinals moved into busch III:

	ERA	hr/9	opp avgs
2008 home	2.60	0.7	.225 / .290/ .349
2008 road	4.76	0.7	.272 / .323/ .435
2007 home	4.17	0.8	.269 / .330 / .409
2007 road	5.21	1.3	.273 / .343 / .455
2006 home	3.93	1.1	.253 / .322 / .410
2006 road	5.19	1.3	.284 / .352 / .476

the cardinals only played 10 of their first 30 on the road this year; they play 15 of the next 23 on the road. by the end of those 23 games there will likely be a lot of "why does our pitching staff suck?" conversation, and very likely the answer will simply be that the pitchers had to pitch on the road instead of at home. looper had a huge split last year (3.34 home, 6.81 road) and has a smaller, but still significant, one again this year. pineiro had a 3.38 at busch III last year, 4.74 everywhere else; lohse has an era of 1.08 at home so far this year, 5.79 in his 2 road starts. . . . .

items:

if you’re around this weekend, look for the United Cardinal Bloggers’ progressive blog of the Cubs-Cards game. each inning of the action will be covered by a different blog; C70 at the Bat will have the pregame, Stan Musial’s Stance will take the first inning, and off they’ll go from there. it is not a live blog, so don’t check in while the game is in progress; posts should be up sat night / sun morning.
judging by the early returns, jason larue (.077 average) has a decent shot to break the franchise record for lowest single-season batting average by a position player with 100 or more at-bats. that honor currently belongs to mike laga, famed as the only man to hit a ball (albeit foul) clear out of busch II; he batted .130 in 1988. behind him are a couple of backup catchers, irish-born jack o’neill (one of four brothers to play in the majors), who batted .141 for the 1902 cardinals, and scotty hemond (.144 in 1995). i also need to recognize dwain anderson, a shortstop who began the 1973 season with the cardinals and took 17 at-bats for them (2 hits, .118 average) before being sent to san diego, where he completed the season. final line: 15 hits (all singles) in 124 at-bats for a .121 average. since 1960, that’s the lowest single-season avg by any big-league position player with at least 100 at-bats. laga’s .130 average ranks 7th on that list. the #4 guy? dave duncan, for batting .126 with the athletics in 1969.

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in the post this morning

I found this interesting: “A lot of people didn’t know what to expect,” infielder Aaron Miles said. “A lot of people didn’t expect this … we are a lot better than people who write about it, or blog about it, thought we would be.”

by UNCDubya on May 1, 2008 9:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

a nod to the blogs

very interesting. miles, of course, being a favorite blogger whipping boy . . . . .

by lboros on May 1, 2008 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

my thoughts exactly

i hope he isnt reading this site, for his sake…

by UNCDubya on May 1, 2008 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

miles needs to start reading this blog

then maybe he will stop being so clutch as he has been lately. damn guy might just be starting to win me over

"He was trying to hit a three run homer with the bases empty. To my knowledge, no one in the history of the game has ever done that. But it could happen someday. You never know in this world of baseball." The Moonman

by mattyfrommo on May 1, 2008 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

We know Mo sometimes reads VEB.

“With regard to Miles, he is well respected on this team and gives us great protection at SS/2B. He does have value!”

I said back then I think our Miles bashing might be touching a raw nerve.

"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin

by That's a Winner on May 1, 2008 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

You have to admire Mo for going onto the P-D website and taking the beating he did, even answering some insulting questions.

This little gem is worrisome:

...we truly believe Izturis will make us stronger up the middle…

Grit has picked things up, proving an adequate platoon player for one month after proving he shouldn’t be in the Majors during his MLB career (.324 OBP, .356 SLG). In April, his OBP is elevated due to a higher walk rate than career levels, just like in 2006. Ironically, he had 52 ABs through April 30, 2006 and has 59 ABs through April 30, 2008. The question is whether or not his elevated walk rate in 19 games and less than 60s ABs this season is indicative of a developed skill or whether last season and his entire career are better gauges of his lack of skills. I suspect it is the latter.

One thing that I believe we can all agree that he has no business playing SS due to his lack of range and poor throwing arm.

by bgh on May 1, 2008 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

his arm

...dude now that spiezer is down who will eat up innings??

"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on May 1, 2008 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

(i meant pitching)

n/t

"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on May 1, 2008 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Projecting the future

Thanks for the splits on the rotation. It’ll be good to have a reason for why things seem to go south in May (if they do).

C70 at the Bat

by Cardinal70 on May 1, 2008 9:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps the pitching numbers going up

will be offset by more clutch hitting as the weather heats up. you gotta think that we will score more of those RISP

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 1, 2008 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pitching at home

Why is our pitching at home so much better? We have a Neutral park (well 99 and 99) and we play in an outdoor stadium. I could see if we pitched in Petco why our numbers would drop. I guess this is the part of the game that is like voodoo.

by Harknights on May 1, 2008 10:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mound

The mound could be one factor. I know each mound is a little bit different and it takes pitchers a couple innings sometimes to adjust to the slight difference of each mound. Pitchers never warm up on the game mound. They warm up on bull pen mounds but those are different than the game mound.

I looked at the road game results and STL has not given up too many early game runs on the road.

Who knows maybe over time it will balance out more

by ICbirdfan on May 1, 2008 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mound in San Fran

They were talking about how the mound in AT&T is a lot more flat than anywhere else. And how uncomfertable the Cardinal’s pitchers looked landing on it.

by Evilfrog on May 1, 2008 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the fans

pump up the pitchers with enthusiasm!

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 1, 2008 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I remember Dwain Anderson!!

Didn’t we get him from the A’s?...Yes we did…for Don Shaw…then he went to the Padres for Dave Campbell, who I always liked as a player, and is one of my favorite analysts today.

But I recall the Cards were very excited about Anderson, who I guess was supposed to succeed Dal Maxvill…it looks like Mike Tyson ended up winning the job for 1973…Ray Busse was another highly regarded SS prospect.

by tbell61 on May 1, 2008 10:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It may be worth mentioning

in this context that Dave Campbell was also a total bust at the plate for the Cardinals, never getting a single hit in the course of his brief Redbird career, including, of course, a game I saw him play for them in Philadelphia that season.

by Mike G on May 1, 2008 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm glad you guys mentioned Campbell

Every time I’ve seen that guy on ESPN (which has been only for brief moments, so I haven’t heard him discuss playing days), I’ve thought he was that guy that pitched for the Twins in the 70s (based on recollection of a ‘74 or ‘75 baseball card). tbell’s comment about about Campbell made me look it up—the guy I was thinking of was Bill Campbell.

I didn’t recall that Bill Campbell appeared in 50 games for the ‘85 Cardinals.

According to Baseball Reference, both these guys who once wore the birds on the bat were nicknamed “Soup”. M-m-m adequate.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled discussion of the state of the Cardinals’ middle infield.

TSF

by TedSimmonsFan on May 1, 2008 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting, if sobering, analysis on this team's pitching splits ...

But I think you are being a little too negative on (or maybe ‘making light of’ is a better term) this team’s chances … I understand that May is going to be much harder than April … more road games and tougher series to contend with … I’m hoping we go .500 for the month … if we do, we’ll still be in contention … and that much closer to Carpenter coming back, which I predict will give us a positive bounce … this is a good team … aside from the #4 and #9 slots, it is firing pretty well … I don’t think it’s a fluke … I think it will continue, barring any significant new injuries, for the rest of the season … LaRussa will get the most out of this very talented group … would be nice to read some postive out-looks on our chances, for a change … but, maybe pooh-poohing the team is chic … perhaps the team will continue to use it as the proverbial chip on the shoulder to continue its production … I’m still predicting a 85-88 win season … we’ve already won 18 … with 133 games to go, we only have to win .504 of the remaining games to achieve that … I think this team can certainly achieve that …

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on May 1, 2008 10:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

85 to 88 wins is well within reach

but it won’t win the division this year

by lboros on May 1, 2008 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

how many wins will win it?

I think the Cubs are obviously going to be a pretty good team this year. They do have some weak spots but Lou is not affraid to correct things that are obvious weak spots.

The Brewers are not going to be very good unless their bull pen gets better asap. They are not going to be able to score 8 runs every night.

I think right now STL is better than the Brewers simply because the Brew Crew pen is AWFUL!

by ICbirdfan on May 1, 2008 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Keep in mind we have a few bullpen losses ourself

But everytime someone gets on Izzy, I just think of Gagne and smile. :)

I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang

by AdjustedExpectations on May 1, 2008 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree.

Gagne makes it real exciting ever time out. It’s like ‘06 Izzy, only in Brewer blue.

by cardsgirl95 on May 1, 2008 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gagne/Turnbow

At one time these guys scared opposing teams, now they just scare Brewers fans. Glad to have them in the division.

Jimmy steps in to lead off the bottom half of the inning... with nobody on base... It could happen... just not tonight.

by Hollywood15 on May 1, 2008 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Division winner will win 93 games in my opinion

by ICbirdfan on May 1, 2008 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We are one...

Zambrano punching the dugout wall from being able to win it

What I mean is that Carps injury derailed the Cardinals last year. An Injury to the Cubs could do the same to them. As long as the Cardinals put themselves in a position to compete for the division by the end of the year. Any thing can happen.

But I agree with you that currently 88 wins wont win the division. Im thinking closer to 92.

by Evilfrog on May 1, 2008 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well yes, everything that could have gone wrong last year did

Beyond even the Carp thing. But I think the cubs would be able to weather a Zambrano injury. And the Brewers certainly are capable of clicking at any moment.

"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams

by Valatan on May 1, 2008 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We'll see ...

The Scubs definately have a good team … but I don’t agree with everyone’s lofty expectations of them … I think they are definately playing over their heads right now … they’ll cool down … they always do … and then we’ll see how many games over 88 they can win this year, if any … just my opinion … I think it’s going to be a fight till the end of September … Injuries I believe will be key in determining the winner … who will go down? Sheets, Zombrano, Lee, Ramirez, Pujols, Wainwright … it’ll be fun to watch it play out … but, if nothing else, this team has silenced it’s 67 win critics and figures to be better than a .500, sub .500 also ran … they’ll be in it …

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on May 1, 2008 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no it won't

but it might win the wild card!

by nybirdfan on May 1, 2008 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nah...

the Cubs look like a 100 win powerhouse. The wild card will be a scrum between the Phils, the Cards, the Pads, the Brewers, and the Dodgers… It’s going to take 95 wins just to get the wild card this year.

by guayzimi on May 1, 2008 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I respectfully disagree

One would expect that in years where the division races are tight, that it will take more wins to win the wild card. And last year, in that scenario (no NL had more than 90 wins), the Rockies won the wild card with 90 wins.

This year, it looks like the Cubs and D-backs could each threaten to win 100. In that scenario, where races aren’t as tight, it is less likely that the wild card winner will need 95. Much more like 88-90. See 2006 and 2005 as examples.

More importantly, the Pads? Really? They look bad – run differential is already at -38 and their home/road splits are similar. I would be shocked if they can contend with a more talented LA team and a much more talented Ariz team.

by Fred Head on May 1, 2008 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It is hard to be bullish...

about the Pads. That pitching can get into a serious groove though. I do hate their lineup, but the key guys, Giles and Gonzalez, are producing. Once they send Edmonds packing and get Greene and Kouz going, they’ll score enough.

Over the past five years 90 wins has been sufficient for the WC, but prior to that it took around 95. Perhaps it’s because interleague play has reduced the win totals for NL teams lately. That should change a bit this year. Also, I just think there are a number of truly bad, 100 loss teams that will provide the good teams with higher win totals. The Nationals, Giants, Pirates, and Marlins all fit in that category, while the Astros, Reds, Cardinals and Rockies could push 95 losses if things break against them.

by guayzimi on May 1, 2008 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the Marlins

won’t lose that many. Giants are a little better than they get credit for.

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 1, 2008 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cards with 95 losses

would mean playing 49-84 .368 ball the rest of the season. That scenario seems as likely as Gold Glove for CDunc. On the other hand, 89 losses could still happen.

by ubeddie on May 1, 2008 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So the Cubs score alot of runs,

but outside of Zambrano, is that rotation good enough for the Cubs to win 100 games? Not even close. Hill (average), Lilly (slightly above average), Marquis (hold your laughter), and Dempster (a full-time starter for the first time since ‘03). 90? Probably. 100? No way.

by LukeMP1186 on May 1, 2008 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lilly, Hill and Z...

are all as good as Wainwright. Granted Hill seems lost and Lilly has been slow out of the gate, but they can be better than anything we have. At the back end I would take Marquis, Lieber and Dempster over any combination of Welly, Brad, Looper et al. Plus if any of their top six falter, they’ve got Randy Keisler in reserve at Iowa…

They don’t even need anything more than an average staff since they score over six runs a game.

by guayzimi on May 1, 2008 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd take my chances with

Wainwright, Lohse and Pineiro over Lilly, Hill & Marquis right now.

But I would take the Cubs offense over the Cards at this point though….to be honest.

by KYCards on May 1, 2008 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

First of all,

I wasn’t comparing the Cubs and Cardinals rotations. I said that the rotation outside of Zambrano is nowhere near the quality of a 100 win team. Secondly, do you really believe Rich Hill is as good as Adam Wainwright? I’d be willing to here an argument on Lilly (despite his ERA over 6, and a career ERA slightly over 4.5), but you find me one objective, educated baseball person that wouldn’t take Adam Wainwright over Rich Hill in a heartbeat.

by LukeMP1186 on May 1, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Given that Hill is two years older...

and considering their starts to the season, I would take Wainwright. But if you look at Hill’s ‘07 season, it was impressive… arguably more impressive than Wainwright’s.

As for the Cubs ‘08 rotation. It’s easily good enough to support a 100 win team. Their team ERA is 3.95 and their ERA+ is 109. That’s with limited contributions from Hill and Lilly. Compare to the 105-win Cardinals team of 2004: they finished with a 3.75 ERA and a 114 ERA+.

If the Cubs score 5.5 runs per game this year (so far they’ve scored 6.3/game), all they need to do to have the same run differential as the ‘04 Cards is allow 4.3 runs/game. They were better than that last year.

by guayzimi on May 1, 2008 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hill and Lilly

will be very fortunate indeed to repeat their 2007 performances. Lilly’s better-than-normal performance has been discussed on this blog a few times.

The thing is, they can regress a bit if the Cubs offense picks them up. Which it might to somewhat often this year if they keep it up.

by sdrone on May 1, 2008 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think

we need to come back and gauge the Cubs pitching and offense mid-May.

They’re going up against Arizona, Padres, and Cinci. Three of the top staffs in the NL. .. and us, if you judge us based on numbers so far this year, and not where we may regress to.

The next 15 days will be a true caliber of where the offense will be for the Cubs I think. So far I don’t think they’ve had a true gauge to go off of.

I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang

by AdjustedExpectations on May 1, 2008 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

the big variable is what happens when the league gets a decent book on Fukudome. If he can handle the league the second time through (and if soriano comes back healthy), i’m going to have some trouble arguing that this offense isn’t legitimate.

"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams

by Valatan on May 1, 2008 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

I’m operating on the assumption that Lilly was the same pitcher as before, he just changed leagues. His FIP/ERA only came down by about half a run, which is about what you would expect in a move from the AL East to the NL Central. Of course, as a 32-year-old power pitcher he might be declining, and who knows about Hill. But they have Lieber and Dempster in reserve, and they can be good enough.

I guess my point is that when an offense scores 900 runs plus in a season, a team with even an average or slightly below average staff can win 100 games.

by guayzimi on May 1, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Only 77 more wins to go...

"Why does he keep saying that?"

by Red Blazer on May 1, 2008 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We will win 95

"Why does he keep saying that?"

by Red Blazer on May 1, 2008 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I say 90

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 1, 2008 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pooh-poohing

There’s an article on the main site by Mike Bauman talking about the improvement of the NL Central and how the top three teams in our division (Milwalkee, Chicago and STL) have the best combined record of the top three teams in any division…He carries on and on about Chicago and Milwalkee, but can only say the Cards record is a surprise.

by cardzfanbub on May 1, 2008 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Meh...

...looks like the article is a “preview” for today’s Cubs/Brewers game.

Woulda been a better article if’n he had mentioned the Cubs/Cards weekend series, though…

"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra

by The Ol Goaler on May 1, 2008 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cards will probably finish above the Brew crew

I think they’ll get the wild card, with the Cubs taking the division.

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 1, 2008 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This weekend's series to me

will give us a good idea of how much of a contender we really are at this point. In my opinion the Cards must win 2 out of 3. Yeah I know it’s only the first week of May, but it’s series like this that can be huge momentum factor for a team to put some distance in the standings in the division early and set the tone for the month to come. And obviously it would be a huge mental boost for our team if they can take the first series against their main rival in the division.

The good thing is we are playing at home and the Cubs don’t seem to hit as good on the road so far this year. Our starters have also been cooling off hot offensive teams when they come to town, both the Astros and Reds were on fire when they came to Busch and we took 2 out of 3 from both teams.
Should be a great series. But the Cards can’t be stranding tons of men on base this series. When they get scoring opportunities they need to cash in….that will be the key.

by KYCards on May 1, 2008 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the cardinals

always seem to do a little better when they’re the underdog

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 1, 2008 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2006

is a great memory…

C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!

by yer dog first on May 1, 2008 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and it didn't take that many wins

to make it to the playoffs and be the upsetter

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 1, 2008 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mulder

Surprised no one’s mentioned about how he stunk it up for Memphis yesterday yet.

by saladdays on May 1, 2008 11:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Just thankful

We didn’t have to rush him into the rotation. He could have already cost us a couple of games…..and bullpen destruction.

"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey.
The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
- Phillies pitcher Tug McGraw, on his plans for his $75,000 salary

by saveferris on May 1, 2008 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There was discussion about it yesterday during the game thread.

by ICbirdfan on May 1, 2008 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

general concensus........

Mulder can not be an effective MLB pitcher living at 84-86 while touching 89-90 in certain instances.

by ICbirdfan on May 1, 2008 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So.....

What do we do with him? I’d say release him, but I know we won’t. We aren’t good enough to trot him out there every 5th day. We can’t afford to do that.

by SoonerfanTU on May 1, 2008 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let him continue his rehab?

Before we make a choice on him?

by Evilfrog on May 1, 2008 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

30-day rehab

Once that runs out, he would have to clear waivers to go back to the minors. Doubt that’ll happen.

by bgh on May 1, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

or

Develop another injury.

by Evilfrog on May 1, 2008 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

(crosses fingers)

No starter has earned their way to AAA as of yet, not by far. But i don’t want to lose that much cash to waivers either, so it’s a catch 22

I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang

by AdjustedExpectations on May 1, 2008 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought that

if a team gets a player off of waivers, they have to assume the pro-rated portion of the contract

"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams

by Valatan on May 1, 2008 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right

was heading to a meeting had read waivers, but it didn’t sink in as such.

I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang

by AdjustedExpectations on May 1, 2008 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he'd clear waivers, i think

no one else would want to touch that contract. We still owe him around 6.5M, between this year and the buyout next year.

The biggest problem is that he’d have to agree to go to the minors before we could try to get someone to claim him, and I can’t see him doing that before he gets beaten up at least once or twice at the MLB level.

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on May 1, 2008 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

as long as his location is good

he should do ok.

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 1, 2008 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If someone makes a waiver claim on him and his $9M contract

then that sounds like a trade partner.

Or we could just let that team simultaneously alleviate the problem of paying Mulder and our rotation logjam.

"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams

by Valatan on May 1, 2008 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I suspect few of us were surprised...

that Mulder would have at least one “clunker” start; Salt Lake City is insanely hot - 23-andtwo (!) so far this season, and they’ve been putting up boxcar numbers against everybody.

I’m more interested in Mulder’s next start… can he maintain whatever velocity he has? How’s his “command”? Let him take his full 30-day rehab, and see where he is after that. As long as the current rotation continues to pitch as they have, there’s no immediate need for Mulder.

If the Cards start showing that home-road split later this month, and Mulder is pitching well, then bring him back to The Show…

"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra

by The Ol Goaler on May 1, 2008 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe he can be...

an expensive Ricky Horton-type, 6th starter/long man option out of the pen. Horton threw about 75 mph if I recall, and he occasionally got some guys out.

by guayzimi on May 1, 2008 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hard to say

I think there is obviously no need to bring Mulder back until he proves he is READY, and I mean he needs to put up some dominant numbers. Joel seemed to come back a bit too early but it looked like it was maybe one or two starts too early at most. I think Mulder needs to prove a lot before he is brought up and allowed to start.

Some guys can lose velocity and it does not affect them as much as others. It is always hard to tell what guys will be hurt by lack of velocity.

by ICbirdfan on May 1, 2008 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Given Joel’s comeback coupled with Mulder’s comeback last year, the one thing that is promising is that management has to be thinking “prove yourself before you come back”. Rather than “we’ll take the chance”.

I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang

by AdjustedExpectations on May 1, 2008 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or, "Rush"

I think a steady mantra of “Hurry, hurry, hurry” fed the inexcusable rushing of Mulder back to the bigs last season. The entire organization should be ashamed.

by bgh on May 1, 2008 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Indeed

I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang

by AdjustedExpectations on May 1, 2008 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i don't know

I don’t think the organization really holds a gun to players heads and tells them to hurry up. I think the problem is that players are not honest about how truely healthy they really are. I think Mulder rushed himself back and really the ball is in his court considering his MLB tenure and his status. It’s not like he was Brad Thompson hurrrying back because he felt his spot was up for grabs.

by ICbirdfan on May 1, 2008 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Leach's lead from stlcardinals.com story

In Mark Mulder’s first Triple-A rehabilitation start, he didn’t take a step backward. So that’s something.

That lead sums up Cardinal Nation’s attitude toward Mulder, I’d say.

by bgh on May 1, 2008 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If anything

Mulder is always ready if you ask him. I don’t mind the optimism, but he’s going to have to be true to form.

I still can’t see how he got the ‘07 contract. Man that was idiotic of us.

I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang

by AdjustedExpectations on May 1, 2008 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well

they were streaking to make the playoffs. at the time, it seemed like it would work, but yeah, it did rest on his shoulders and he wasn’t ready yet. I probably would have taken the gamble though.

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 1, 2008 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LaRue is really bad....

Last year LaRue hit .148 in 178 AB. Since the start of the lively ball era, this was the 5th lowest batting average by a player with 160 or more AB.

In 2006 he hit .194 in 230 plate appearances. When combining 2006 and 2007 he hit well under .200 in over 400 plate appearances.

Here are his batting averages from 2005-2007:

.260
.194
.148

Did the Cardinals think the next number in this progression was going to be good?

I know you can say maybe there are sample size issues—but he is an aging catcher who has not hit for over 400 at bats. Why sign him? Was he really the best they could come up with? Was there no one who can catch and who has hit over .200 in either of the last two years available? How much money above league minimum is a catcher who hits like a pitcher worth? And is my comparing Jason LaRue’s hitting to that of pitchers unfairly insulting to pitchers everywhere?

by tarakas on May 1, 2008 11:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Let's look at the bright side...

Jason LaRue’s 2008 OPS+ = -1

Gary Bennett’s 2008 OPS+ = -34

That’s what you call an upgrade…

by guayzimi on May 1, 2008 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LaRue was a defensive signing only

All they wanted was a good catch and throw catcher who could fill in once a week. They didn’t look at offense at all. Also, I would think that LaRue is also being used as a disposable commodity if Anderson can pick up AAA now that he has been promoted. If Anderson can handle AAA than he takes over as back up at the end of the year (September time frame).

by StLHugo on May 1, 2008 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

back up catcher

Not that important especially when you have a good starting catcher. Your back up needs to most importantly work well with the staff, and have them comfortable with him.

by ICbirdfan on May 1, 2008 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Seriously though...

LaRue reaches a lot by walk or hbp. He only has 64 hits in the last three years, but he’s reached another 63 times over that period by BB or HBP. That doesn’t make him good, but it does take him out of the running for Worst of All-Time.

by guayzimi on May 1, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was in favor

of what would have been another ‘mistake’... namely Brad Ausmus, who is currently hitting only .172 in similarly limited duty.
As one who was very ok with the LaRue signing (he eats nails for breakfast), I must admit I am somewhat concerned. But I can only hope that he IS still a good catch-and-throw performer, and more importantly that the pitchers ‘like’ him and feel comfortable with him behind the plate.
If there was a VEB consensus that he was NOT these latter things, I would be very concerned. Yadi is not unfamiliar with the DL

by the Tewk on May 1, 2008 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but offense is half the game

Yeah, I know he was signed for defense, but at some point, offense has to matter. Was there no one else who can play defense and work well with other players who could hit at least .200?

And part of a backup catcher’s job is to play when/if the regular gets injured. If that happens, it is hard to believe LaRue’s bat won’t hurt us. He would probably be the worst hitting player getting regular at bats in all of MLB.

by tarakas on May 1, 2008 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Offense as a whole is half the game, but he’s only one out of 9 on the offensive side. So his liability does way down if you look at that context.

I’ll take someone who I don’t have to worry about defensively till Sept callups, and with the recent AAA callup, you know we’re getting another catcher in Sept.

I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang

by AdjustedExpectations on May 1, 2008 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Offense is obviously important

but we are talking about the backup catcher here, i.e., the least important guy on the 25-man

"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams

by Valatan on May 1, 2008 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why give outs away?

Making excuses for poor play is asking for it.

Isn’t there someone whose defense we don’t have to worry about who can hit .250? You only get 27 outs a ballgame—why play someone who gives three to four away every game he plays? Can anyone’s defense be so good that they are playable with a sub .200 average?

As the Yankees trot their backup catcher out there every day, ask them how often backup catchers hit.

by tarakas on May 1, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who do you want?

Go look at every single MLB roster and pick out a back up catcher who you want, and is going to hit well enought to meet your standards. I am sorry but there are not that many.

Take a look at 200 at bats

a .200 hitter gets 40 hits
a .250 hitter gets 50 hits

You are not talking about a great upgrade with a .250 hitter

by ICbirdfan on May 1, 2008 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

actually, those 10 hits are worth

close to a full win in the standings.

by lboros on May 1, 2008 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes

But I woudl say there are others who can do more to contribute and it just seems like a waste to complain about a back up catcher. I have been browsing the back up catcher list and it is pretty bad.

It just seems to be one of those positions there are other intangibles you look for in the position.

by ICbirdfan on May 1, 2008 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the list...

Of the 54 players who caught at least 40 games, LaRue ranks last in OPS and OBP, next to last in slugging.

That’s my point.

by tarakas on May 1, 2008 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But it's still a backup catcher

you can’t have a solid player at every position, and defensively solid catchers don’t grow on trees. Even a healthy catcher needs days off, and you don’t want your pitching staff to implode on the days you have a crappy defensive catcher in the game. Gary Bennett got a whopping 155 AB last season. If we’re going to upgrade somewhere, why don’t we worry about the middle infield first? Like waaaay first?

"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams

by Valatan on May 1, 2008 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because getting the little things right is important...

It’s like hitting behind the runner. You do the little things right hoping for incremental gains.

Your roster should not have players on it who are below replacement level—the point of replacement level it is the level of talent that any competent GM ought to be able to acquire. Given $850,000 you should be able to come up with someone who would not be woefully outhit by your typical AAA catcher.

As far as the middle infielder goes, Mo was unable to get a good player, but we don’t really know what his options were given his resources. At least he didn’t give a bad one on a long-term contract.

by tarakas on May 1, 2008 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

catcher's value = hit + field

and way more of it would come from fielding, or a catcher’s replacement level wouldn’t be so low.

And getting quality defensive play out of a catcher is way closer to paying attention to the little details and getting them all right, than worrying about offense.

If there’s a reasonable upgrade out there, fine. But that replacement player would still make $500,000 in the majors, so it’s a pretty tiny investment over league minimum salary.

"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams

by Valatan on May 1, 2008 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What evidence is there...

that LaRaue’s glove can carry his bat? Is there any proof that his glove makes up for it? We have plenty of proof his bat is terrible.

Baseball Prospectus’s stats have LaRue as being largely average defensively for a catcher since 2003 and in his career. (Worth 1 run below an average catcher defensively since that time), and about 4 runs per 100 games better than an average catcher over his career) . Their stats aren’t perfect, but I would think if LaRue was great defensively it would show up in the stats (Molina shows up as 16 runs per 100 games better than average).

So he has average defense and a below replacement level bat.

It’s not that he’s a bad hitter—he’s historically bad. Anyone have a decent database? When is the last time a player over 30 hit under .200 in significant playing time (120+ PA) two years in a row and played the next season? Even Mario Mendoza didn’t do that.

by tarakas on May 1, 2008 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

larue has an awesome arm.

I think you are right, for the most part, and am counting the days until BA gets to st louis, but LaRue has thrown out 3 of 5 baserunners this year (B-R says 2 of 5, but one SB was on a strike to miles that he dropped, had the runner by several feet).

I also watched him throw out Hanley Ramirez in spring training, and it wasn’t even close. He caught 3 guys that day, which sold me on him, defensively.

The other thing about LaRue is that he has seasons in the past where he was a very good hitter. he is 2 years removed from a stretch of 4 straight 88-96-98-110 OPS+ seasons. He COULD, theoretically, be better than he was the last 2 years; he broke his collarbone in May, and was coming off of knee surgery in ‘06. Of course, that also means he could be finished; he’s certainly done nothing to show he can still hit, so far.

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on May 2, 2008 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My point is...

Was this really the best use of a roster spot and $850,000? If LaRue hits like he did last year and bats as often as Bennett did for us last year, he’ll cost the Cardinals 12 runs compared to a replacement level catcher, according to Baseball Prospectus’s numbers. That’s a win.

Comments regarding it doesn’t really matter how well your backup hits amaze me. Every out matters.

by tarakas on May 1, 2008 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2007 numbers

for backup catchers from baseball-reference.com

The list shows all catchers so I sorted it in ascending order of games played.

The list doesn’t show skill at working with pitchers and calling a game. In my opinion a above average defensive backup catcher far outweighs limited offense capabilities from a backup catcher.

by ubeddie on May 1, 2008 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm with you on this. Having grown up

with Ted Simmons behind the plate, Cardinal catchers’ futility with the maple has pained me for decades. (And yes, I know Simba was a big-time outlier.) The problem I have with their approach to backup catchers is that they’re not just awful hitters, they are the awfulest of the awful. Almost as though the Cardinals are trying to see just how little O they can get out of that roster spot. It’s a damn conspiracy against my sanity.

by MdRedbirdFreak on May 1, 2008 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll say it again

I’ll take ‘08 comparisons to the ‘81 team any day. I really think lboros is onto something with that particular comparison – as I’ve noticed the comparison has come up more than once. You gotta love what you see so far from our Redbirds.

"Well, folks, this game began as a tiny worm and is blossoming into a large cobra." - Mike "The Moon Man" Shannon

by Tudor's Electric Fan on May 1, 2008 11:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Winning PCT regression expected

but to beat the community projection of 78 wins the Cards need play .452 ball the rest of the year.

Let’s keep the fun going.

by ubeddie on May 1, 2008 11:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Intersting sim stats for '86 Redbirds

Cardinal catchers (Spanky & Karkovice) have 18 HR’s!!
Jack Clark turned into Rob Deer (.217/.347/.427 w/ 24 HR & 95 BB)...
In fact, the Cardinal IF (aside from Ozzie at .283) is hitting terribly (Herr = .225; Pendleton = .198!)..
But man could these guys run..
SB TOTALS
Ozzie = 62 SB
Herr = 27 SB
Coleman = 85 SB
Willie = 25 SB
Pendleton = 15 SB
Curt Ford = 15 SB

Van Slyke is the Cardinals best hitter (.285/.355/.482 w/ 16 HR & 27 SB).. Maybe we can get Tony Pena AND Barry Bonds for him & Spanky & Dunne this time?
Ace of the staff? I’d go with my favorite Cardinal pitcher from the ‘80’s, Danny Cox (2.24 ERA in 253 2/3 IP! with a 1.14 WHIP & a 15-9 record)
Cox, Forsch (2.56 ERA) & Tudor (2.94 ERA) have been lights out…
Worrell looks pretty shaky to me which may spell trouble in the sim playoffs (31 Sv but a 4.24 ERA & more troubling a 1.41 WHIP.. more HA (77) than IP (70)....)
Fun stuff, Larry.
Thanks for the update.
Boomer.

by glamboomer on May 1, 2008 11:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Karkovice?

He was never a Cardinal….

by salvomania on May 1, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

cards tidbits on ESPN...

little first month summary by jayson stark on ESPN.

1. anthony reyes is a pretty sought after trade commodity, as many teams feel he is salvageable, but the cards are apparently asking far too much for him

2. ryan ludwick “is hot,” but he’s just a fourth outfielder and asking anything more of him will just lead to him “breaking your heart.”

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&page=rumblings

by longhornscardinals on May 1, 2008 1:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

They should move...

both those guys if there’s any kind of a market. I guess teams will get more desperate for an arm like Reyes’ as the season progresses. As for Ludwick, he’s Chris Shelton 2.0. There isn’t even a roster spot for him once Rasmus or Mather are ready later this summer.

by guayzimi on May 1, 2008 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i wish they would attribute those comments

I’m glad that Mo isn’t willing to just give Anthony away…

watching Luddy ride the pine is what is “breaking my heart”, thanks for your concern, unnamed dude.

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on May 1, 2008 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't tell me...

you’ve fallen for the big Lud. Is this a widespread affliction here at VEB? I just assumed everyone saw him for what he is….

by guayzimi on May 1, 2008 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep, I'm on the Luddy

bandwagon, at least to the extent that I think he could be a decent everyday player in the majors … perhaps not good enough to play every day for us, considering the great situation in our outfield. But he clearly seems like a guy who could put up Ryan Klesko numbers, with better defense.

And I just hate it when people take it as a given that player a, b or c can’t be a ML regular, when he’s never even given a chance to be one. It’s the ultimate Catch-22.

by MdRedbirdFreak on May 1, 2008 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The guy has been given ample opportunity...

He has 781 career plate appearances. His line is .257/.326 /.465, which simply isn’t good enough for an everyday corner outfielder. Moreover, if he had played everyday, his line would be even worse.

by guayzimi on May 1, 2008 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

his career line

is depressed because he was brought up too soon and then played through a number of serious injuries. He is fully healthy now and should put up numbers in the ~.850 OPS range for us.

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on May 1, 2008 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe he'll...

prove you right. Anything’s possible. I’m not going to fillet Tony for using him judiciously though…

by guayzimi on May 1, 2008 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

781, parcelled out in drips and drabs due

to injury, etc. He never even got above 200 in a year until 2007 with us.

You’re guessing about his “everyday” line because none of us have any way of knowing what he’d do with full PT.

by MdRedbirdFreak on May 1, 2008 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

luddites ujnite!!

If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, perhaps you haven't grasped the situation!

by sportsman on May 1, 2008 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

dunno what you mean

I’ve been “on the Ludwick bandwagon” since spring training of ‘07. This year has felt a bit like vindication since I took a lot of crap last year over it, and it’s frustrating to see him not get playing time even when he is killing the ball.

I’d say Chris Shelton is a pretty bad comparison for him; I’d really be curious as to the thought process that led to that. Shelton can only hit fastballs, and is awful against the curve and the slider; once the league figured that out, they pounded him with curves and sliders and he was helpless. Luddy does just fine against curves and sliders, slugging .462 and .478 respectively against those types of pitches last year, according to Josh Kalk’s data. His achilles heel seems to be offspeed pitches (and third basemen who catch line drives).

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on May 1, 2008 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder if the un-named scout wants to see Reyes pitch more to see if he is worth it?

by ICbirdfan on May 1, 2008 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You sponsor Ludwick's...

BR page!? I guess that answers my question above…

by guayzimi on May 1, 2008 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mets Asking About Reyes?

Anyone else think that the nickname “The Amazing Reyes” is a hint that the team asking about Reyes was the Mets? I may be reading to much into the adjective, but he’s never been called that before.

So says, Titus Pullo (formerly The Dude)

by Titus Pullo on May 1, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What an odd, strange, word to use. Maybe it's just a play on the Mets

other Reyes and their nickname the “Amazing Mets” I have long felt he would be a good fit for the Mets for a whole host of reasons-big ballpark, capable outfielders, a pitching coach who has worked with some young inconsistent pitchers (Perez and Maine) and helped them both become more consistent, in fact Maine is about to become a star IMO, Perez has been better, but he doesn’t stay fixed-still a work in progress. They may like someone like Anthony so they won’t have to pay the huge contract that Perez will be seeking at the end of this season. Ditto for Pedro. No guarantees he’ll hold up for the season, or be re signed for next season. All of the Mets starters have a ground ball percent under 40%-they won’t care about Reyes fly ball tendencies. He needs to learn how to pitch from the stretch-that seems like a fixable problem that no one here is able to help him fix. So it wouldn’t suprise me that Rick Peterson might want to take him on.

Why would the Cardinals be so stubborn? Seriously. Mr. Duncan wants no part of him-he’s not pitching enough to get into a rhythm. It’s a recipe for disaster. They are not going to get a top flight prospect for anyone on our pitching staff except Wainwright. Now, while they play hard to get, what if he gets hurt? Then they can non tender him and get nothing for him. And how can they say he’s worth so much when it is PUBLICLY known that his own manager and pitching coach didn’t want him on the team? His bad record from last year? How much should you ask for a player you don’t want to use? Are they freaking out that so many scouts do show up? That maybe they are missing something? It’s a head scratcher for me when I try to figure out why they won’t pull the trigger…...

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on May 1, 2008 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Since it’s all speculation, I’ve always looked at the Reyes situation like this.

The Cardinals are pretty deep into pitching, that showed signs in Spring Training and has been resulting on the field. There was also a lot of eyes on Reyes in Spring Training. So it’s reasonable to think that there’s some demand.

So Mo forces him on the team for exposure. He gets some low to midrange leverage situations here and there to keep some visibility on him against big league bats.

There isn’t much secret in the MLB, so while we’re reading what the Cards want for Reyes now, I’d herald to think that it’s well known with every team already. Which I actually think it’s a smart move. Let it be known you’re not going to let him go for “cheap” and want more than a one for one trade. Let other teams simmer in those thoughts.

When they get desperate, they will come.

The Lohse deal was fantastic, so was the approach. Walt was like a fox when he started out, grabbing players in very cunning trades. I think Mo would do well to sit on his stock, do a little show and tell. Allow the public to keep pointing out what’s publicly known, that he’s not a long term investment. And let it go from there. Not many teams have a surplus of pitching talent like we do.

As far as public dramas about players and how it brings in trade prospects.

Ol’e Jimmy not wanting to be a platoon victim and was to waive his trade clause brought us a very nice prospect. (who’s lookin’ real good).

Rolen’s well documented issues brought us Glaus.

I don’t know if we or they took the lead in those, but those two + Lohse makes you think there’s something up Mo’s sleeve when it comes to Reyes. And by all accounts Reyes is a better RP than what we do have, so we’re not a loss on the 40 man by showcasing him.

I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang

by AdjustedExpectations on May 1, 2008 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fangraphs/WPA for April

Top 3 hitters: Albert (1.57), Skippy (0.90), Ludwick (0.55)
Bottom 3 hitters: Yadi (-0.53), LaRue (-0.46), Izturis (-0.37)
Top 3 pitchers: Wagonmaker (1.01), McClellan (0.93), Lohse (0.88)
Bottom 3 pitchers: Izzy (-0.68), Thompson (-0.27), Pineiro (-0.12)

The 5 spots in the rotation (combining Brad & Joel) all have positive WPA’s, meaning that on average, they all have kept the team in games and ofttimes pushed them toward victory.
W-L records as WPA sees them (game value >+.10 = W, >-.10 = L, in between = ND): Adam 4-0, Lohse 4-1, Looper 3-1, Welly 3-2, Joel 2-1, Brad 1-1

Ankiel is still doing his Roy Hobbs impersonation, posting game values >+.10 six times & <-.10 eight times. This means he has had a significant impact on the outcome in 14 of the team’s 29 games. This is consistant with his performance last year and is much higher than even the best hitters in the league (Pujols regularly posts game-changing WPA values in approximately 1/3 of our contests).

That said, the Cubs do deserve my pity, but never my support.

by Solanus on May 1, 2008 1:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cool stuff.

Just curious, how does Ankiel’s compare to Soriano’s?

by MdRedbirdFreak on May 1, 2008 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Soriano

22 games up, 16 games down, 98 in between.

That said, the Cubs do deserve my pity, but never my support.

by Solanus on May 1, 2008 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mo chat

Live chat with Mozeliak tommorrow afternoon:

http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/stl/fan_forum/chat.jsp

by cdb on May 1, 2008 2:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I hope Mo sticks to his gun and only gives Reyes away for an Upper Echelon prospect.

boo cubs, hooray beer

by Raconteur on May 1, 2008 3:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

well...

then he better stop giving up 9th inning dingers…...or we’ll be lucky to get anyone decent for him .

by Timbo02 on May 1, 2008 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

To be fair

The situation called for it. If I recall correctly the count was 1-2 or 0-2, 2 out and we were up by 7 runs. He had great velocity. He may have been caught out in that pitch, but I don’t blame him on shoving that fastball down and making him hit rather than nibble. He did recover well, which wasn’t something he did last year.

I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang

by AdjustedExpectations on May 1, 2008 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The situation called for it?.

not sure I’ll agree with that …but yes…it was mop up duty and there were two away….and in the long run not that big of a deal…but it just seems to me that AR has a habit of giving up the long ball …that’s all.

by Timbo02 on May 1, 2008 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He went right after Dunn

I don’t have a problem with it.

by saladdays on May 1, 2008 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

With his best pitch.

In a not quite perfect spot. So be it.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on May 1, 2008 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

favorable scheduling quirk

looking at the schedule I hadn’t realized that we have only 6 games at Cubs and at Brewers while both teams play 9 times at Busch. Nice home field advantage.

OTOH the interleague stretch starting in mid June is nasty: Royals at home, then on the road, at Red Sox, at Tigers and at KC.

by ubeddie on May 1, 2008 3:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

lillibridge

do we consider him an upper-echelon prospect? i’m not sure based on his so-so line drive rates throughout the minors (around 15% save for his AA stop where it was 19) and 17-25% K rate. he has some pop; he’s made it to 10 HRs at two stops along the way. i don’t know, seems similar to kozma, though lillibridge is in the bigs right now (though he could probably use more time in AAA).

by mdarshan on May 1, 2008 3:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ps

i know he’s been discussed before on this blog, but given reyes hot commodity status and the braves need with smoltz and glavine hurt, i thought i’d bring it up again.

by mdarshan on May 1, 2008 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lillibridge appears to be viewed by the Braves

as nothing more than a utility defensive player. His bat is not translating well to the major league level and even though he is a favorite of Cox, they don’t see him as a legit starter at any time.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on May 1, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

any under the radar shortstops coming up?

I’d like to get the next Wizard :)

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 1, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Won't be one

There will never be another Ozzie, Jordan, Ali, Ruth or Gretzky. They changed their respective sports and every player after them is an imitator.

A walk is a waste of three pitches-Bob Gibson

by orlando card on May 1, 2008 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looking into May

Man, you have to feel sorry for the Pirates, they have a rash of games against us 3. Houston has a fair amount too.

I think we’re going to catch Mil at a good time coming off the road. Games post Florida can be a little hard. Rockies haven’t hit a true stride and we may get 4 games against them in the middle of it. Which is by all things good.

Cinci doesn’t play the division much this month, but they have a fairly heavy schedule coming up.

This could be a three horse race quite soon in the standings, and the Brew does have a reasonably light schedule out of us three as the Cubs get a true test of that offense we hear so much about with some of the better pitchers getting a look.

I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang

by AdjustedExpectations on May 1, 2008 4:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Man, Fielder just plowed into Soto

and Soto hardly budged and Fielder wobbled and fell down.

boo cubs, hooray beer

by Raconteur on May 1, 2008 4:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Fielder

Should eat more meat then.

by Evilfrog on May 1, 2008 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Man I hate off days

boo cubs, hooray beer

by Raconteur on May 1, 2008 4:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 1, 2008 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

by Evilfrog on May 1, 2008 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey.
The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
- Phillies pitcher Tug McGraw, on his plans for his $75,000 salary

by saveferris on May 1, 2008 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

anybody go to any games at Miller Park yet?

I’m going up there on the 11th I think it is on a Sunday. Just wondering if I should worry about getting tix in advance or if it is ok to wing it. I don’t really have any expectations other than not wanting to spend a ton of money

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 1, 2008 4:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

uh oh

wood’s about to blow it.

by Birds on the Matt on May 1, 2008 5:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yippie!

Go woody!

by Evilfrog on May 1, 2008 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what's the point

gagne we probably blow it in the next inning.

by enoscountry on May 1, 2008 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Doh

forgot about that.

by Birds on the Matt on May 1, 2008 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hopefully I’m wrong – it would nice for them to be disheartened coming in to StL

by enoscountry on May 1, 2008 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'm hoping he does blow it

giving up a solo home run, and that they play about 9 more innings this afternoon…

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on May 1, 2008 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

uh oh

here we go..

by Birds on the Matt on May 1, 2008 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

thats a thought.

Gagne is working on blowing it right now.

by Evilfrog on May 1, 2008 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

think that is the first time

all season I have seen Soto make an out…

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on May 1, 2008 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

mike cameron

has picked a couple of awful times to strike out today…

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on May 1, 2008 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

brewers win 4-3

by ICbirdfan on May 1, 2008 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cubs with a heartbreaking loss

Let’s pour salt in the wound tomorrow.

by cloistermaximus on May 1, 2008 5:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ouch

at least izzy is better than both gagne and wood

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 1, 2008 5:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Are we in first by a half game now?

"Why does he keep saying that?"

by Red Blazer on May 1, 2008 5:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes

boo cubs, hooray beer

by Raconteur on May 1, 2008 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think so

in the win column

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 1, 2008 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sweet.

"Why does he keep saying that?"

by Red Blazer on May 1, 2008 5:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Gonna be a nice weekend series. I hope by the Sunday night game we are playing for the series win or,

going for the sweep.

"Why does he keep saying that?"

by Red Blazer on May 1, 2008 5:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

SI Jinx

Just sayin…

by cloistermaximus on May 1, 2008 5:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You have to admit

Out of all combinations, we have a very nice pitching matchup.

I use statistics much as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – as support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang

by AdjustedExpectations on May 1, 2008 5:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm gonna watch my first game in HD tomorrow night

on my brother’s new 40” Samsung. Sweet.

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 1, 2008 5:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

OMG...

I just saw MY first game in HD on Tuesday….

On my new 40” Samsung.

Thank you, W. (Cough, hack…vomit. Sorry.)

by tinstl on May 1, 2008 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't do it

unless you plan on getting an HDTV yourself.

Non-HD games are almost unwatchable once you see a game in HD.

by Harknights on May 1, 2008 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+100000000000000000000000000

C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!

by yer dog first on May 1, 2008 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

St. Louis starters

I just saw this bit in a column at Yahoo Sports (thanks for pointing out the little linkie icon in a previous thread, azruavatar):

St. Louis Cardinals: Second to Diamondbacks in starters’ ERA, first in starters’ innings.

Maybe this has been mentioned here and I just completely missed it, but I was very surprised to see that we’re first in starters’ innings. Besides Wainwright’s starts, I feel like the bullpen has had to go 3-4 innings a good number of times even when the starter didn’t allow many runs (although I guess a lot of those games were early in the season). Presumably it comes from not having more than a couple terrible starts where the bullpen has to go 6+ innings. In any case, I’ll take it.

by BTown Birds fan on May 1, 2008 9:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs