Why not keep Anthony Reyes in the bullpen all year?

by taiko on Apr 9, 2008 2:25 PM EDT

While Reyes has not exactly been a "revelation" so far this year, it is clear that he has regained confidence in himself and his stuff. His velocity is up 3-5 mph from last season. He has apparently accepted his role in the bullpen, as a means of sticking with the major league team, and is making the most of it. But for one two-out two-strike pitch, he would have a spotless record (and a save). He has been able to pitch and pitch effectively every two or three days, which is also a surprise.

To my mind, spending the season in the pen may be a necessary step in the evolution of Reyes as a big league pitcher. And it would fit La Russa's preferred method of bringing young pitchers along - having them "pay their dues."

Given that the alternative is a season-long battle with five other guys for the #5 rotation spot, or getting sent down to AAA, I can think of a few pros and cons for this scenario:

PROS:

Reyes gets into 50 or 60 games against big leaguers, as opposed to 20-25. (A fifth starter rarely makes 30 starts).

With short stints, Reyes can go "all out" with his fastball, reinforcing his arm strength and mechanics at 92-93 mph.

In long relief, Reyes can work as a three-pitch pitcher, but doesn't have to rely on all three if one of them isn't working.

TLR can adjust his usage from low leverage to high leverage situations, depending on his confidence in the kid.

With all the rehabees and ex-bullpenners, we should still see a good number of 4- and 5-inning starts, increasing the need for effective long relief. It's a valuable role on this ballclub, not a dumping ground.

Having built up numerous successful outings, Reyes thoroughly rebuilds his confidence and the team's confidence in him.

Reyes gains trade value through versatility? (debatable).

CONS:

Reyes is no longer conditioned as a starter, and would have to be reconditioned next season.

Reyes gets maybe 100 innings against big leaguers, as opposed to 150-180.

Reyes does not get a chance to reverse last year's W-L record.

If Reyes flames out as a reliever, his career hits the bottom of the barrel and breaks through it. He ends up a homeless drunk who lives under a tarp in Ballpark Village and becomes a public nuisance who relieves himself daily on the statue of Bob Gibson.

Reyes loses trade value? (not sure what there is to lose, but debatable).

In my opinion, the pros outweigh the cons, especially if he can continue to pitch as well as he can in this role.

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#s game

Someone will get voted off the bullpen island when Pineiro comes off the DL either this weekend or the following week. Thompson or Wellemeyer go to the bullpen when Pineiro returns. Let's assume Springer makes a return soon and Kelvin Jimenez is returned to the minors where he belongs. Other than the contingency with Springer, it will either be Reyes or McClellan sent to Memphis when Pineiro returns. Duncan loves McClellan and we all know what he thinks of Reyes. OK, let's say Mozeliak makes a command decision and sends McClellan down. The problem arises when the next Cards starter comes off the DL. Mulder pitched in an extended spring training game. When Mulder is ready, the only way I see for Reyes to stick on the big club is for another pitcher to get hurt. Certainly possible. But we have two more rehabbing starters (Carpenter and Clement). Unless LaDuncan change their view of Reyes and start trusting him more, I think A. Reyes gets traded to free up a roster spot for pitchers returning from the DL.

by jjray on Apr 9, 2008 2:58 PM EDT reply actions

Reyes vs. Mulder or Clement...

Point taken, but I'm not sure I agree. Essentially you're trading Reyes to make room for Mulder/Clement. I wouldn't trade a young pitcher who is re-establishing his groove for either. The Cards don't have a commitment to either pitcher past 2008, and both will cost millions to retain. And there's no guarantee either is able to finish their season healthy.

It would cost $2.25 mil to buy out both Mulder and Clement for 2009, and pay Reyes another 500k on top of that.

Versus paying $19.5 million for both Mulder and Clement for 2009, and lose Reyes for a low-ceiling prospect? No thanks.

"Attaway to stomp 'em. Stomp the piss out of 'em. Stomp 'em when they're down. Kick 'em and stomp 'em. Attaway to go boys. Pound that old Budweiser into you and go get them tomorrow." -- Joe Schultz

by taiko on Apr 9, 2008 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

low ceiling prospect?

why would they trade anthony for a low ceiling prospect? he has options. if he got bumped out of the bullpen they wouldnt give him away for nothing. they would just send him back to memphis. i'd like to find a way to keep him around (and i believe Mo will do his best to keep him around), but its not the end of the world if he gets sent to memphis to wait for someone to get injured. if he develops enough value to be traded for a real prospect then that should also be considered.

by dmb60614 on Apr 9, 2008 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions

At this point..

What team would give anything but a low-ceiling prospect for him?

Other than that, I agree with your post.

"Attaway to stomp 'em. Stomp the piss out of 'em. Stomp 'em when they're down. Kick 'em and stomp 'em. Attaway to go boys. Pound that old Budweiser into you and go get them tomorrow." -- Joe Schultz

by taiko on Apr 9, 2008 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions

at this point...

at this point they arent going to get much. however, there is no need to be concerned with 'at this point' when there are other 'options.'

by dmb60614 on Apr 9, 2008 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Starting to look like "the pitcher to get hurt" will be Franklin.

He's getting rocked. Whether it's a real injury or a fake one to get him to straighten out his mechanics, I see him as the next one to the DL.

by outraged on Apr 9, 2008 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions

What?

He hasn't given up a run since the second game of the season . . .

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on Apr 10, 2008 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Keeping Reyes

I'm all for keeping Reyes as a starter, not a reliever. If LaDuncan places A. Reyes' value as a starter behind both Thompson and Wellemeyer, then Reyes needs to be traded to a team that will stick him in their rotation. I'd rather bring up someone from AAA (like Motte or C. Perez) for the job.

Obviously, if the other teams only offer peanuts, JMo is not going to give A. Reyes away for a bag of used baseballs. We'll see what gets offered. I personally think Anthony is out the door by the end of the month.

by jjray on Apr 9, 2008 5:14 PM EDT reply actions

I've got to wonder if maybe someone/lots of someones in the organization (and I don't think it's either Mr. LaRussa or Mr. Duncan)

don't really want to trade him. More than 10 teams showed interest at the winter meetings; more than 10 teams had scouts at his last start of spring training. Do you really believe that NONE of those teams offered us something we wanted/could use? I don't.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Apr 9, 2008 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions

dunno...

... Mo still likes A-Rey, and TLR has been pretty positive about him all Spring. A-Rey definitely has his supporters in the organization.

as for trades: the rumor all winter was that Reyes was gonna be tossed aside. ten teams might have been interested in him if all they had to give up was a low-ceiling prospect (like taiko said), but none of them were going to offer any MLB-ready prospect of any significance.

interestingly, we heard plenty of talk that Reyes might be moved, but no rumors at all about possible matches or players coming back. that leads me to believe that no team offered anything of value in return, so no talks moved past the "inquiry" stages. not all potential deals get leaked out, but a whole lot of them do, and nothing came out about Reyes. if ten teams really were interested and were making substantial offers, we would've heard something from someone.

that said, Reyes' trade value isn't especially high, but his value to the team might be. especially if Springer and/or Franklin stays hurt for awhile, his role in the pen could be huge. Izzy is always a health risk as well, and a lot of people think that Looper or Wainwright might be due for some arm trouble.

i don't think Reyes has anything to worry about with Clement. it seems like the team isn't gonna throw Clement out there unless he gets his arm strength back up and his velocity improves fairly dramatically (from his current 84 mph to 88-90 mph). it really doubt that Clement sees the big leagues this year, especially if Mulder has anything at all left to contribute, and/or Thompson or Wellemeyer pitch around league-average. Clement's window is shrinking, and after the Lohse acquisition, i really don't a spot for him unless a lot of people get hurt or he dramatically improves.

all that to say, i think Reyes still has a job in the pen after Piniero, and maybe even Mulder, come back. and i've got no problem with using him there for the time being.

by kindred on Apr 9, 2008 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe they did get offers,

But I think the Cards did the right thing holding on to him for a couple of reasons:

1) It's tough to trade for need when you haven't played a regular season game yet, so you don't really know what you need.

2) With all the uncertainty surrounding the injured starters, having Reyes as a possible season long fill-in in case two of the walking wounded couldn't come back is a good idea. If one of the current rotation guys gets injured before Pinero, Mulder, or Clement return, that pitching surplus suddenly turns into a deficiency. If one of the stop gap guys reverts to form, it's nice to have the flexibility to put Reyes in the rotation and put Welly/Puppy Kicker/Looper in the pen .

3) After his 2007 campaign, his trade value was probably pretty low and moving him for the sake of moving him isn't smart. If they can rejuvenate him and all the other guys come back from their inury, now the Cards are dealing from a position of strength, and a live armed Reyes commands more on an open market than a 2-14/6.04/1.407 Reyes would.

"Is this Heaven?"
"No, it;s Iowa."
"I could've sworn it was Heaven."

by Ted Glover on Apr 9, 2008 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I am of the opinion...

...that, as Taiko said, this might be the best way for Reyes to "pay [his] dues." I believe that most of Reyes's problems are mental, exacerbated by Duncan's lukewarm reception of him (at best) and movement back and forth from Memphis to St. Louis. If this is what it takes for him to get his confidence back, then I'm all for it. Of course, I have no evidence/data to back this up, but it's my gut feeling.

Life's a river, kid, you gotta go where it takes you.

by KerouacCardinal on Apr 9, 2008 7:19 PM EDT reply actions

I believe this could be ...

the best thing for Reyes, as well. I agree with the multitude of comments discussing improved confidence and trade value. In addition to those, I'd like to add that I think the bullpen gives him an opportunity to work on his biggest weakness, pitching with runners on. He will be forced to work out of the stretch, he is learning how to warm up faster, and he will be brought in to positions with runners on as LaRussa's confidence in him grows. (I've given up on Duncan liking/respecting him)

I'd like to ask, also, does anyone really think that Reyes should want to remain a Cardinal? Wouldn't you be begging for a trade by now, if you were him? I'd have to say that Duncan's comments about needing velocity when you pitch that straight has to be one of the most demeaning statements I've seen a coach make.

by etp_stl on Apr 10, 2008 1:25 AM EDT reply actions

I think theres a whole lot of stuff we really dont know about Anthony Reyes to begin with.....or his relationship with La Russa and Duncan and how he fits into any long range organizational plans. So we fill in the blanks based on insufficient information and conjecture, making him the most discussed Cardinal rookie pitcher in the short history of internet blogging. Who'da ever thought.?

He's at least earned another chance in the short term partly because of how and where he's being used and partly due to physical and mental maturity. I hope the kid can keep it going, he's earned that much for sure.

"Anthony, you have everybody all stirred up again, I want you to cut that out....right now!" Anthony Reye's Mom

by cardschinmusic on Apr 10, 2008 8:17 AM EDT reply actions

One problem with you analysis...

Minor error in logic: In order for Anthony to sleep under a tarp in Ballpark Village, there would have to, in fact, BE a Ballpark Village.

by Martini Agonistes on Apr 10, 2008 11:15 AM EDT reply actions

I envisioned him sleeping in the pit.

He wouldn't be disturbed by any groundbreaking or construction for several years yet...

"Attaway to stomp 'em. Stomp the piss out of 'em. Stomp 'em when they're down. Kick 'em and stomp 'em. Attaway to go boys. Pound that old Budweiser into you and go get them tomorrow." -- Joe Schultz

by taiko on Apr 10, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions

the pit

The pit would be a very peaceful place. A pond close at hand. Perhaps Mr. DeWitt could stock his pond with fish for young Mr. Reyes' amusement while cooling his heals at the current incarnation of ballpark village.

by jjray on Apr 10, 2008 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions