Lack of Production Behind Pujols

by bgh on Apr 9, 2008 12:29 PM EDT

To piggyback on Red Baron's post from this morning, which I found to be insightful and thought-provoking, I thought I'd do a quick analysis of the post-Pujols batting order production. The normal early season caveat of *small sample size* applies. We aren't even to game #10, but it is still indicative of there being little consequence to teams who decided to pitch around Pujols in this very, very young 2008 season.

The overall production for the No. 4 Hole is not very good:

27 AB / .222 BA / .333 OBP / .296 SLG / .630 OPS / 2 2B / 0 HR / 3 RBI

While placing us in the middle of the pack relative to other clubs, it is reminiscent of 2007, when we had the worst cleanup production (last in Slugging Percentage, last in Batting Average, fifth-to-last in HR, 20th in RBI) in all of Major League Baseball:

627 AB / .246 BA / .320 OBP / .386 SLG / .706 OPS / 24 2B / 20 HR / 103 RBI

However, the No. 5 Hole has been abusing the baseball in early going of this season:

31 AB / .323. BA / .364 OBP / .613 SLG / .977 OPS / 4 2B / 1 HR / 6 RBI

This is hopefully an indicator of the rest of this season as it is markedly better than the anemic production the No. 5 Hole gave us in 2007, when Cardinal No. 5 hitters ranked last in MLB in Batting Average, seventh to last in OBP, last in MLB in Slugging Percentage, last in HR (with 10), and fifth to last in RBI.

621 AB / .246 BA / .317 OBP / .357 SLG / .675 OPS / 35 2B / 10 HR / 81 RBI

Finding a viable power threat in the cleanup hole is imperative for the Cards leveraging Albert Pujols' offensive skills to a maximum this season. Whether it be Ankiel or Duncan or a player-to-be-named later.

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glaus

Troy Glaus seems to be warming up the last few games and should push that line upward. He will be most valuable when it warms up and the balls start flying. I am worried about the 6-9 spots. I wish we could work something out or find an AVERAGE hittng middle infielder with a little speed for the bottom of the lineup. At least someone who can keep and inning going like a Polanco.

HEEE HEHEHE BIG BOY- mike shannon

by plunkem on Apr 9, 2008 12:37 PM EDT 0 recs

Yeah, it's a small sample size

I really don't worry about anything, look at standings, etc. until May.

by sdrone on Apr 9, 2008 12:38 PM EDT 0 recs

I hate being "that guy"

but 1) you note that the batters hitting behind Pujols haven't been good in previous years as well but you don't really tie that back to Pujols performance (i.e. does it even appear that he performs worse with a bad hitter behind him?) and 2) the idea of lineup protection has been largely discredited by a couple of studies including a Baseball Prospectus study and by JC Bradbury in his Sabernomics book.

Pujols is off to a slow start power wise (for him) but I think that's just random variation that has little, if anything, to do with the rest of the lineup.

by azruavatar on Apr 9, 2008 12:43 PM EDT 0 recs

Sorry

I did it on my lunchbreak. I'll supplement it.

by bgh on Apr 9, 2008 1:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

Runs

I do know that last season was the first season of his career in which Pujols did not score 100 runs in a season.

by bgh on Apr 9, 2008 1:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

And a career low

in HR.

by bgh on Apr 9, 2008 1:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

you don't have to apologize

It's not without merit but I don't think we can come to the conclusion you seem to be leading up to without some attempt to tie Pujols performace by year to his "protection" by year. (I still probably won't buy into it :o) but that's the missing link imo.)

by azruavatar on Apr 9, 2008 2:14 PM EDT up 0 recs

You're right

But Pujols will set a personal record for walks this year if he's not "protected."

by silent_bob on Apr 9, 2008 1:33 PM EDT up 0 recs

Right

And still not score many runs.

If he gets "protected," however, he could score 140 runs.

by bgh on Apr 9, 2008 1:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

kamikaze

Maybe with someone to drive him in regulary he wont revert so much to his kamikaze base running tactics! Drives me nuts when he tries to over do it on the bases. I like aggressive play, but smart aggressive play.

HEEE HEHEHE BIG BOY- mike shannon

by plunkem on Apr 9, 2008 12:51 PM EDT 0 recs

2 spot

How about moving big al up to the two spot for a stretch. If they are going to walk him and avoid the strike zone, makes sure you have several big bats behind him to move him around. Always good to have a high OBP player in the two spot anyway - Albert surely qualifies. Plus, tony likes pop in the two spot. For example,

Shu/Barton
Al
Ank
Dunc/lud
Glaus
Kennedy
Molina
Pitcher
Iz

If they are pitching around him - you want bats behind him. Just a thought

by cdb on Apr 9, 2008 12:54 PM EDT 0 recs

in that sense...

it appears that the more important thing is getting guys on BEFORE Albert.

HEEE HEHEHE BIG BOY- mike shannon

by plunkem on Apr 9, 2008 12:58 PM EDT 0 recs

Before/after

I was just thinking that if you have threats after albert, then they will be more reluctant to pitch to him. In most cases, he will not be coming to the plate with the bases loaded - so there is always a base open for him. If you have threats after him, pitchers won't want to walk him unless absolutely necessary. Regardless of the approach - we need pitchers to pitch to him. A walk is great, but albert does alot more damage when he can swing the bat.

by cdb on Apr 9, 2008 1:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

2 hole

I still dont understand power in the 2 hole in the order. If its me i want speed and OBP in front of the heart of the order.

HEEE HEHEHE BIG BOY- mike shannon

by plunkem on Apr 9, 2008 1:15 PM EDT 0 recs

generally

In general, I agree - but in this situation, maybe not. Albert needs to see pitches, maybe moving him up will help. And don't forget that albert has one of the highest OBP on the team year after year.

Also, if you don't mind, you can reply to the comment specifically so others know which comment you are responding to. Just use the reply button beneath the specific comment.

by cdb on Apr 9, 2008 1:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

excuse my breach of etiquette

Im new to the blog world. Im not convinced that he would see many more pitches there over in the third spot. There will be less chance for men on and dont forget he is one of the most prone players in baseball to hitting into double plays. Why not cleanup, hes a good two out hitter?

HEEE HEHEHE BIG BOY- mike shannon

by plunkem on Apr 9, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

no problem

just makes it easier to read. I also ran one of the lineup simulators recently - similar to KennyWang's comment below:

http://tinyurl.com/5sjypz

in it, most lineup predicted to offer the most offense had pujols batting first. That will never happen. But the ones that did not have him batting first had him batting second. This is based only on AVE, OBP, and SLG. So it can't take into account whether a pitcher is likely to pitch around a hitter. But regardless, if they want to keep walking him, then you have more bats behind him to move Albert around the bases.

by cdb on Apr 9, 2008 1:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

you make a great point and i do agree

with the idea of protecting him i just dont think hitting him 2nd helps the lineup. There really is no right or wrong answer as so much is dependent on situation. I just prefer continuity in the lineup, Runs are best scored in crooked numbers and the best way is to pile pressure on the pitcher by keeping him facing batters thoughout the lineup. If he wants to walk albert and put another man on base im not upset.

HEEE HEHEHE BIG BOY- mike shannon

by plunkem on Apr 9, 2008 1:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

The best way for Albert to see pitches

is for the hitters in front of him to get on base. If Albert comes up with no one on base, he will not see pitches to drive very often. If the guys in front of him get on base consistently then Albert will see better pitches, and if he doesn't, the problem for the pitcher will just continue to get worse with a Pujols walk.

I think this is why people were so unhappy a few nights ago when Izturis was hitting in the leadoff position. We realize that with C-Iz and his historically low OBP that Albert has a smaller chance to hit with runners on.

The best protection for Albert in this lineup is the OBP from the 1 and 2 spot in the lineup.

"I believe he’s been reincarnated, that he played before, in the twenties and thirties, and he’s back to prove something." - Former teammate Mark McGwire about Albert Pujols

by cardzfan24 on Apr 9, 2008 1:33 PM EDT 0 recs

Mac quote

Amazing quote in your signature, btw.

"The steak may be tough, but you can always slide your fork through the gravy."

by KennyWang on Apr 9, 2008 1:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

+1

protection in front is more important than protection behind.

"Sorry about him, he's dealing with being an inker. " - Chasing Amy

by FutureMan on Apr 9, 2008 2:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

BLOOP

In "Baseball Between the Numbers" one of the chapters ran an optimization of lineups based on runs created, etc. and found that the optimal lineup had the player with the highest OBP leading off the game. Now, no manager out there would put a guy like pujols in the number 1 spot, and I personally wouldn't want to experiment moving him out of the 3 hole. Although, BBBTW#s did suggest that having a guy with a big SLG, but relatively weak OBP 3 spot can help a lineup. Then, if no one gets on base in the first inning, the 4 batter has a higher OBP to lead off the second. That number 3 guy might be Ankiel.

How about
Barton/Rasmus
Pujols
Ankiel
Duncan
Glaus
Molina
Kennedy
Pitch
Izturis

Not a bad line-up IMHO

"The steak may be tough, but you can always slide your fork through the gravy."

by KennyWang on Apr 9, 2008 1:36 PM EDT 0 recs

in that lineup

You have pujols 2nd, he would be the optimum OBP guy for the next inning. Glaus would seem to be the slugger.

How about
Barton/Schu...for now
Kennedy/miles
Glaus
Pujols
Ankiel
Duncan
Molina
Pitch...why do we give the pitcher more at bats??but further...
Izturis

HEEE HEHEHE BIG BOY- mike shannon

by plunkem on Apr 9, 2008 1:45 PM EDT up 0 recs

2nd spot

Definitely don't want our secondbase platoon in the 2nd spot.

"The steak may be tough, but you can always slide your fork through the gravy."

by KennyWang on Apr 9, 2008 1:49 PM EDT up 0 recs

why not

neither are bad contact guys in their normal capacity and if you put the speedier guys up front there there will be less chance of double play and more chance of scoring on a single or double. Now i say, its sad that these are our speedier guys!

HEEE HEHEHE BIG BOY- mike shannon

by plunkem on Apr 9, 2008 1:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

DH

Who do you guys want in the DH come June? I would have to think that Duncan gets it.

"The steak may be tough, but you can always slide your fork through the gravy."

by KennyWang on Apr 9, 2008 1:41 PM EDT 0 recs

DH

pujols at DH for a few games may be good rest also, but Duncan is the obvious choice.

HEEE HEHEHE BIG BOY- mike shannon

by plunkem on Apr 9, 2008 1:52 PM EDT 0 recs

Dunc + Glaus

If Duncan and Glaus start hitting (with good signs from both of them last night.) The offense will be fine this year.

by Evilfrog on Apr 9, 2008 2:05 PM EDT 0 recs

Based on this article,

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=363160

which people did discuss when it first came out, and based on LaRussa's love of the whole lefty-righty thing, and other stuff people have said, how about this:

Schumaker
Pujols
Ankiel
Glaus
Duncan
Molina
Kennedy
Pitcher
Izturis

Ankiel and Duncan could be switched, so could Izturis and Kennedy. And, of course, everything would change with a lefty on the mound.

by aNdrOss on Apr 9, 2008 4:55 PM EDT 0 recs