When A Wagonmaker Becomes A Carpenter
by azruavatar on Apr 4, 2008 8:36 AM EDT
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PrintCouple of thoughts about yesterday's game before I move on to my topic of choice this morning:
- I really want to poke holes in what Thompson did yesterday because I think, on balance, that's the absolute best kind of game he's going to have, but . . . . . well, I just can't. Not only was he striking batters out, he was striking out the likes of Tulowitzki, Helton and Holliday. He also had 10 groundouts against 2 flyouts. This is exactly the kind of game Thompson enthusiasts should point to when talking about him. The only thing that I'd note was that a) his command started to deteriorate towards the very end and b) I still wonder how long he can survive in the league with, basically, one pitch. On the days when he can't command his sinker, he's sunk.
- Skip Schumaker's throw was, perhaps, the single most significant defensive play of the game. It's nice to have a plus defender in left and at the very least, I hope TLR feels comfortable making defensive replacements for Chris Duncan late in games where the Cardinals have the lead. Skip isn't hitting yet but he's drawing walks -- the hits will come; I wasn't sure the walks would or will continue to.
- Anthony Reyes. That is all. (Here's BA's scouting report of him from 2005. It's amazing how perception has changed.)
- It was especially encouraging to see Troy Glaus collect a pair of hits. One that was about 2-3 feet short of being a HR and another hard hit line drive for a single in the third.
- The key to yesterday's game offensively was letting Ubaldo Jimenez beat himself. He walked 5 batters in 5 innings. He's an outstanding young pitcher who still has shoddy command and the Cardinal hitters took advantage of that.
A couple of weeks ago, I gave a hearty approval of the contract extension the Cardinals gave Adam Wainwright. I laid out my reasons with some behind the scenes math and the fact that the contract contains two club options (although I believe there are vesting clauses associated with them as well -- if he reaches those clauses, however, he's probably worth the money anyway). I made a rough estimate of his future value to base the salary on. One thing I didn't do was forecast a significant improvement of any kind for Wainwright in those numbers but I certainly could have.
It's been mentioned before but Wainwright's 2007 numbers after the All-Star Break are significantly better than before. Not just the shallow numbers like WHIP and ERA; he was striking out more batters, walking fewer and allowing fewer homeruns after the break. The result was a 4.66 ERA in 102 innings pre-ASB and a 2.71 ERA in 99 innings post-ASB. Beyond that though, there's a less statistical reason that I'm a fan of Wainwright moving forward. He reminds me of Chris Carpenter. Actually, he has for a while. (Please ignore the part where I was reading Eric Karabell and touting Jason Schmidt in my signature. As an aside, I totally missed the call on Schmidt's shoulder.) I made that comment watching Wainwright pitch out of the pen during 2006 so I was, unsurprisingly, unaware of his full arsenal that he now employs on a regular basis.
And it's a well-varied array of pitches that he employs. Fangraphs has pitch data sorted out for us now, which is awesome, and we can see how often Carpenter and Wainwright throw each of their pitches:
| Player | Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Cutter/Changeup |
| Carpenter | ||||
| Wainwright | 53.9% (89.4) | 18.6% (72.3) | 16.5% (83.5) | 11.1% (81.3) |
The first number in each column is how often they threw the pitch and the second number is the average velocity. I'm using Carpenter's composite data for 2005 & 2006 (with a hint of 2007) and Wainwright's 2007 since he was a reliever in 2006. If you look at the top starters throughout the rest of the NL Central (Zambrano, Oswalt, Harang, Sheets, Gorzelanny), you'll see that they all employ their fastballs far more often -- over 60% in each case. Carpenter and Wainwright each utilize essentially 4 pitches. They both use curveballs as their primary secondary offering and their best offspeed pitch. Wainwright has a changeup where Carpenter prefers a cutter but those are pretty similar repetoires. The velocities for each pitch are remarkably close as well (ignoring the cutter/changeup disparity, which we'd expect). We do see that Carpenter has a but more zip on all his pitches. Through the power of PitchF/X data we can also see that Wainwright has a very consistent release point (another desirable trait).
It's not really a fair comparison to put a 3rd year pitcher (2nd year starter) up against a Cy Young winner but I'll do it anyway. I'm not anticipating Wainwright to approximate Carpenter's peak; I'm merely pointing out the similarities that have always evoked a Carpenter-Wainwright comp in my mind. We can extend the comparison further to physical traits as well. They're both 6'6-ish around 220-230 pounds and utilize their height on the mound to pitch downhill. They were both first round picks -- Carpenter was the 15th overall by the Blue Jays while Wainwright was the 29th by the Braves. They both excelled after being traded from their drafting organization. We'll have to wait years to see what the end results are but the preliminary similarities are there.
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Not to toot my own horn
as many of us have discussed AW around here, but last September my main thread was about Wainwright's strong second half and his emergence as a top of the rotation starter. I mention this only to piggyback on your main idea -- that he is very Carp-like and I wonder what those #'s from fangraphs would look like if taken from just his second half in '07.
As you point out he was considerably better in the 2nd half last year than in the first. I wonder if his fastball velocity in the 2nd half wasn't a little closer to Carp's. I don't know as fangraphs only shows the full year numbers but it may help to explain the increase in his k/9 from 5.21 before the break to 7.63 after the break.
I'm also not sure that Wainwright can't reach Carp's peak or, at least, that Wainer's peak may be close and last longer than Carp's did (yes, I did just use past tense.). I think his curve, b/c of the break and the tremendous speed difference is a better pitch than Carp's is and I think his slider is better as well. I think possibly that also helps to explain why he uses them so frequently, vis-a-vis his fastball -- b/c those pitches are so good
Double A
Not the league, but the Horseman. Both of you fellows remind me of The Enforcer with these posts, and you have every right to bask in your glory. I hope that you are trumpeting for the next five years and I'm sure everyone else does, too.
"I don't like to toot my own horn, but: TOOT! TOOT" - Arn Anderson
by bgh on Apr 4, 2008 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions
hey Az.
I'm in a hurry this morning, so I don't have time to look, but I'm pretty sure that part about the Cards having two options on AW is wrong. I believe it's a single option for two years. I could be wrong, though.
No Es Bueno!
Cot's lists
2012 and 2013 as different option years. However, you both may be wright (get it HAHAHAHAH). I think there might be 2 ways for the options to vest (for instance, he meets some performance standard and both options vest at once or maybe the Cards can vest both if Kip Wells is getting $32m/year).
J.D. Drew
Say what you will about J.D. Drew, but some five years after his trade, we are still reaping the benefits. The Drew trade is the gift that keeps on giving. A couple of years of Marquis, where he pitched pretty well (the instant payoff.) A couple of years where Ray King was downright nasty (the middle payoff.) A year where Wainwright was our iceman in the October, and now long term hopes as a starter. Yet Drew is playing for his third team since the trade, and he and the Cards each have rings to show for it all. Not a bad deal.
A lot has been made of Jocketty's short sighted moves, but this has to be up there with the Edmonds deal in terms of what it brought the team long term.
by Knubb on Apr 4, 2008 9:04 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
totally agree
but this move was one of seemingly few* that Jocketty made where he traded the "veteran/star" talent for the "youngsters".
*i know that's a generalization. if i'm wrong, feel free to correct me.
by sra on Apr 4, 2008 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions
there's little doubt
that this was one of Walt's best trades. He took advantage of J.D. Drew's market value by trading him a year before his contract was up. We weren't going to be able to resign him if he had a good year and if he had a bad year, we wouldn't want to. He leveraged him for a top of the rotation starter who we'll have for 8 years at least (if we want the last 2), a lefty reliever who was good for the same # of years that Drew was good for the Braves, and a SP who pitched well for us in his first year and threw 400 innings for us in the next 2 years.
The Braves got some benefit as well as Drew played well for them and they won their division with him in the OF but, when people talk about Walt's legacy, they often mention Edmonds, McGwire, Kile but too often forget this trade.
braves and pitching
The deal gets even better for me. Historically, when Schuerholz started talking pitching prospects, it was time to get out of the room. To his credit, Jocketty must have known he liked Marquis and Wainwright enough to gamble. In light of the Schuerholz's record in trading away pitching prospects, it was a high risk move. (not for logical reasons you stated, but for the pieces involved in that logical/necessary move). And Jocketty came out on top, and I'm so thankful.
Everyone looks different with their cap on,...
but when he first came to the Cards, I thought Wainer looked like Carp. Maybe it was their shared lack of dedication to shaving everyday or maybe they have a similar jaw line, but when they don a hat with the red bird, they do kind of look alike.
Jimmy steps in to lead off the bottom half of the inning... with nobody on base... It could happen... just not tonight.
Similarly
my gal wants to boink both of them--with a distinct advantage going to Wainer... might I note she's the type of woman who wants to punch teenage girls yapping about the looks of players instead of watching the game at the park. Damn, I love her.
Rasmus or bust.
A good play by Izturis too
After bobbling the ball in the 1st play (which he did because a little bit in a hurry), he recovered later with a very good play from the outfield grass, which drew a thumbs-up by Albert (with eck you could forget about it). I saw very good hands and movement, he just need to address the throw a little better (even if, with Albert, that's not so important...)
GO CARDS!!!
Gordo's Assessment
Gordo states that the "gloomy forecast" might be wrong for the Cards.
While I am more in the column of Az's more succint summary of yesterday's game, Gordo lays out a laundry list. On it is this snippet:
After shaking off a first inning mishap, shortstop Cesar Izturis played a strong defensive game to support Thompson’s sinkerball pitching.
That "first inning mishap" was an error, giving him more errors than hits in the fledgling season, but a scary trend when compared to his utterly pathetic offense and defense down in FLA. Why is the bar set so low for him?
Izturis was 0-fer-3 for a third consecutive game. Ryan needs to hurry back so there is at least an option as to who starts at SS.
And that snag
Deep in the hole followed by a great throw to first took away a hit.
Can't argue with the lack of bat. It's what is desturbing about him.
didn't see the error
but heard Dan and Al both express surprise that it was ruled an error. They called it a tough play. Anyone actually see it?
I saw the play....
I DVRed the play on FSNMidwestHD and watched it when I got home from work last night. I thought it was a very tough play. I used big time range to even get to the ball and even if he made the play clean not sure it would have been an out. Questionable error for sure
by 85CardsforLife on Apr 4, 2008 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
....
he used big time range* sorry for the error on my own part. LOL.
by 85CardsforLife on Apr 4, 2008 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree
It was at best a toss up between an error and a hit, but was by no means a sure out if he fielded it cleanly.
Jimmy steps in to lead off the bottom half of the inning... with nobody on base... It could happen... just not tonight.
It was an error
he got to the ball, fielded it and a decent throw would have recorded the out. Most SS probably don't get to that ball behind 2B, but the fact that he did pretty easily still makes it an error.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Apr 4, 2008 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
I was at the game
Izturis did show very good range to get to the ball. I think the call could have gone either way. Spillborghs has above average speed and Izturis was clearly trying to hurry the throw because the ball was not hit very hard. Also, remember that the field was very wet. On a dry day I would probably give him an error but with yesterday's rain I would have to say it was a hit.
Saw Memphis Opening Day
Colby Rasmus hit the first pitch for a double and had two singles for a 3-5 night, scored once and almost gunned a guy at the plate (game winning run). Cold windy night, tough on everybody.
Parisi threw in the low 90's but the ump had a tight strike zone, lasted only 4 2/3 with 91 pitchs (61 for strikes). Liked what I saw from him.
Jason Motte impressed me the most. 2 innings, mid 90's fast ball, three strike outs. 28 pitches, 20 for strikes.
Not the ending I wanted, but the ump was cold and wanted to get back to the hotel.
Rasmus
The fans in Memphis had better go see Rasmus while they can. He is ready for the Major League (and would probably be the best all-around outfielder on the Cardinals 25 man roster). He has all of the tools and is very confident, which he should be given his age and performance thus far. I hope the Cardinals can trade an outfielder before the trading deadline and net a good young middle infield prospect. If they do that, things will look promising for next season.
As an aside, I found the article in the P-D this morning regarding lower attendance at Cardinals games interesting. I am more excited about watching the Cardinals this year, especially so after Rasmus is added to the 25 man raster, than I have been the past couple of years. There are many fascinating story lines regarding player development that will be critical to the future of the Cardinals, not to mention the story lines regarding veteran pitchers returning from injury and Pujols' continued assault on the recordbooks. It should be an interesting and entertaining year regardless of where the Cardinals are in the standings and tickets won't be as hard to come by as they have been in the recent past. Good news for true baseball fans.
Rasmus is why I went
Last night. Knew it would be awhile before I get to St. Louis to see him when he gets there (Would bet he get's there in May). He has all the tools. Looked good in center field and the throw to home beat the runner, but the runner I guess just got his hand in just before the tag. Mather hit the ball well and almost made a great play in the right field corner, but couldn't make the sliding catch.
Motte's arm motion seems to say "Here's the ball, try to hit it". From my view (second deck, right side of mound), he holds the ball up midway thru the windup and fires. Perhaps the glove blocks the view from the batter, but we could tell when the fastball was coming. Don't know if the stadium radar gun was fast, but he hit 94mph consistantly with a few 96 & 97 thrown in.
Parisi was hitting 92 most of the time with the offspeed stuff at 78/79. His stuff looked wicked. Lots of ground balls, the first three hits off him were seeing-eye grounders. Too bad the ump had such a tight zone, the offspeed stuff was just nasty.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 4, 2008 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Minor league pitchers
Are another reason for excitement. Hopefully next year Izzy, looper and Springer won't be around. The Cards have some young arms that should be able to sufficiently fill their shoes, which would free up a fair amount of money for a quality free agent signing. I'm optimistic that both Reyes and Garcia will pan out as quality starters, although that may be asking for too much. Like all pitchers, they are both an injury away from being retired.
Good bullpen pitchers
I am all for adding youth to our roster, especially considering how many good young RH relievers we have, but why in the world does everyone want to get rid of Springer. I can understand Izzy b/c of the $$$ he makes. But Springer is very effective, has a rubber arm, and makes 3.5mil. on a one year deal...and he only signs one year deals. It reminds me of the great situation Boston has with Wakefield. Springer is not going anywhere else because of the autism situation with his child and will continue to provide excellent bullpen work at a reasonable price. Furthermore, there have to be some more experienced guys in the pen to help the kids make the adjustment to the major leagues. Again, I love our young hurlers but Springer does everything you want out of a reliever (strikeouts, pitching multiple days in a row, warms up fast, etc.) at a very reasonable price.
wakefield
is a starter and the Red Sox have a perpetual option on him at set dollars. It's not a fair deal that I'm surprised hasn't been voided with the collective bargaining agreement. And also Wakefield is a starter and hence much more valuable than a reliever at the same price.
agreed about wakefield's value
I was just pointing out the similarities in situations. Springer's contract is not an albatross to this team and essentially the Cards can keep him coming back on one year deals until he loses effectiveness. And Springer has been extremely effective. Again I love the Cards depth at RH relief, but Springer is a known very good quantity. At his price I see no reason to just "let him go" into retirement. Franklin...well that's another story. He is miscast as setup reliever (should be Springer's role). Although it's not like Franklin's contract is that big either...ie it would not be a hurdle to moving him.
I agree with you
indakind... and people on this blog are always taking shots at Springer for the money in his contract and why? I can't see it. It was criticized greatly this winter when he signed it. I, like you think he has been a good steading influence on the bullpen.
Considering
Springer has said he's either playing for the Cardinals or retiring, I don't see why the club needed to over pay him. It was nice of them to do, but doesn't seem like the best business decision they could have made.
Well who the hell can see forever?
izzy
I really think the ownership wants to keep Izzy around. Obviously it depends on his demands, but I would like to see him as a mentor/anchor in that bullpen. Wainwright has already said how much he learned from Izzy. I know this goes against the Moneyball approach, but we're not the budget squeezed A's. I wouldn't mind paying $10+mm for Izzy at the closer spot with McClellan, Worrell, Motte and Perez all right there. That could be a dominant right side of the bullpen. And in all, it would be relatively cheap since Izzy would be the only one above league minimum. This assumes we find a way to dump Franklin.
by sra on Apr 4, 2008 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Izzy
Maybe they can make him a coach then. Izzy, please retire after 2008 so management won't be given the opportunity to bring you back (unless you want to take a significant pay cut).
The fact that the Cardinals are paying $23.5 million dollars to Izzy, Looper, Springer and Juan E this year is difficult to swallow no matter what the team's payroll is.
And in regards to Springer, I agree he performed well for the Cardinals last year but he will be 40 in November and has a long injury history (as do most pitchers). Any advantage his veteran savvy might bring him (an attribute which I think is tremendously exaggerated) is outweighed by the age-associated injury risk and likely deterioration in performance, especially so considering that he is a relief pitcher and will likely throw 50-60 innings this year at a cost of $3.5 million. He can be effectively replaced for a fraction of that. Spending money on a top tier free agent starting pitcher or middle infielder, or even in drafting one of these (Why did we pass on Rick Porcello in the draft? He signed for less than what Springer will make this year if I recall correctly.), would do more for the Cardinals' future chances of winning a World Series. Of course, that is just my 2 cents worth.
Rick Porcello
I recalled incorrectly. His signing bonus was $3.58 milliion, 4th highest bonus in the draft and roughly 2.5 times the bonus given to Kozma. Still very close to what Springer will make this year.
Still a mischaracterization
Porcello is on a four-year major league contract worth $7,285,000. He's taking up a spot on their 40-man roster and HAS to be a regular MLB player by 2011, no matter whether he suffers injury or has problems adjusting. That's serious gamble on a high school pitcher. It looks like he's got the talent to make it, his pro debut at A+ yesterday was pretty impressive.
It would have been a significant risk for the Cards to take him and I can't completely blame them for passing. Although I have a sneaky suspicion that Selig has some dirt on Jocketty that has kept us playing slot or under the past several drafts. Looking forward to seeing whether Mo's as hesitant to defy the league.
not to mention that, since he has to be on the mlb roster by 2011
his arbitration clock starts in 2011, no matter what, which severely affects the degree to which he is cost controlled.
"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams
Wrong
He has to be on the major league roster by 2011 or must be sent through waivers...his arby clock starts ONLY when he hits the 25 man roster. His arby clock is not in any way related to anything but MLB Service time.
And if they can't find a major league spot for him in 3 years #1 I'd be shocked #2 he wouldn't be worth taking on waivers by some other team anyway if they can't force at least a bullpen spot e.g. injury and/or he isn't good so the Major League contract thing is irrelevant to me for these ELITE guys.
PS his contract's net present value is ~5.3 million as calculated by the MLBPA and even that is misleading because we still had to shell out 1.55 mil BONUS (so minimally time discounted) regardless for Kozma. So who else wouldn't trade ~4 million and Kozma for Porcello?
With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch
Whoops should've clarified
The arby clock starting when he hits the 25 man roster meaning that it's still 3 years after being on the 25 man that arbitration starts.
With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch
Few high school players, even first rounders
make the mlb roster after three years.
And my point about the arbitration clock refers to the fact that it starts counting down in 2011, not at some later date when the mlb team would have decided to give him his debut. Since he would probably be a better player at this later date, they get lower quality cost controlled years out of him.
"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams
I'm with Joker
A $7.285 million gamble with the best case scenario being a player like Josh Beckett versus a $1.4 million gamble on a player with a best case scenario more along the lines of David Eckstein or Cesar Izturis....I'd rather gamble on the former. An organization has to draft guys like Porcello occasionally, otherwise they get a farm system stacked with backup fielders and bullpen pitchers. And I agree that the arbitration eligibility and major league contract are not big impediments.
best case for kozma
is more along the lines of JJ Hardy except with gold glove defense. The kid's gonna be a lot better and hit with a lot more power than the negative hype so far would suggest.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he'd drive down the street in his El Dorado
I think you miss the point a bit.
I think sra is saying that even WITH an overpriced, aging Izzy, the organization will still have plenty of wiggle room left in the budget. We could keep Izzy, promote Perez, Motte, etc... and still sign a premier free agent (if that truly exists anymore) pitcher and a big bat.
As for FA signings, who would that be? Middle infield prospects are thin. Renteria ( unlikely), Felipe Lopez, Jeff Kent, and Orlando Cabrera are all that look very good to me. Pitching-wise, Burnett (maybe), Garland, Sheets, Penny (maybe). Not a lot to get really excited about.
I suppose we COULD trade a bunch of outfielders for something and try to sign Crawford, Dunn, or Ramirez (if the Sox decline his option).
Still, resigning Izzy for $8-10 million shouldnt hamper our efforts significantly. We are clearing roughly $40 million in contracts for 2009.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
exactly.
for all his warts, Izzy is a high quality reliever. Despite his reputation as a guy who makes it exciting, his WHIP over his St. Louis tenure is 1.14. Without 2006's 1.46, it's a 1.08 (for reference, Mariano Rivera's is 1.00 over the same time frame). I'm not saying Izzy is the best closer in the game, but he's a valuable piece and I think a worthwhile sign (assuming the length is ok). I'm not quite willing to hand over the reigns to Perez given his proclivity to walks, so I question your assertion of finding an effective replacement.
Eckstream nails my point; the total cost of the right side of the bullpen would be around $12+mm with a ~$10mm investment in Izzy. This year's right side is more than that already (about $14.5mm per Cot's). And that gives the FO the flexibility to still go after whatever free agents are available or to pay over slot for a Porcello if they want.
And I never mentioned Springer, Juan E or Looper. But those expiring contracts would only further bolster my argument that we can pay Izzy.
by sra on Apr 4, 2008 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Izzy
You are right....Izzy is a good reliever and the Cardinals can certainly afford to pay him next year and still have a lot left to spend. I wouldn't give him more than a one year contract though and $10-12 million seems a little much to me.
I think the Cardinals are in the habit of overspending for relief pitchers rather than relying on the young arms they have available, and it appears that in the near future there may be quite a few available. I'm not sure if that is LaRussa's/Duncan's preference, management's preference, or both (or alternatively, I could be entirely wrong about it and they don't overspend). I'm more interested in seeing the Cardinals draft and develop young players rather than becoming a stop for players on the cusp of retirement.
As far as free agents, CC Sabathia and/or John Lackey (club option for 2009) would be huge upgrades. A list of free agents can be found here. There are places to spend wisely.
the "Moneyball approach"
doesn't just apply to the "budget-squeezed A's", nor should it. The Moneyball approach is about finding value where it's available and taking advantage of that value. Paying Izzy $10M to do a job that Chris Perez can do for the minimum is a poor use of resources. It doesn't matter that the team has the money. Those $10M could be used elsewhere to boost the team.
I'll add that, though a lot depends on what happens this year with Izzy, signing him for $8 - 10 M next year may not be that bad an approach, as Perez or someone else may not be ready to take over. The problem lies in the likelihood that Izzy will want, and with a good season will likely receive, a 3 year contract. $8-10 for 1 year isn't a bad contract.. A 3 yr. $30 M contract would be for 2 reasons: 1 -- Izzy won't be worth it over 3 years and 2. -- we've got younger and cheaper players who can replace him
Hush yo Mouth.
Izzy can stay as long as he wants to and continues to dominate the last inning of games.
"Why does he keep saying that?"
I might disagree..
I am starting to wonder who might be the best all round outfielder ....Rasmus or will it be Ankiel?
"Why does he keep saying that?"
Why not Both?
Who cares who is best? Ankiel can play Right Field. Rasmus Center and Schumaker in Left. That would be a fantastic outfield.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 4, 2008 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't remember from spring training...
but how is Rasmus' arm. If he has a plus arm that would be a SICK defensive outfield. All would have speed and cannons to boot.
Jimmy steps in to lead off the bottom half of the inning... with nobody on base... It could happen... just not tonight.
Like I posted above
He only had one throw from outfield last night and nearly got the guy at home (I still think the ump wanted to get warm). That throw was spot on. He looked good out there, good feet work.... got nice breaks on hard liners hit to center (I think two were hit his way, caught both).
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 4, 2008 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
+1
Watched him alot in AA Springfield. Great arm. I was really impressed by his ability to get to balls hit over his head. I never saw him get burned.
"There is one word in America that says it all, and that one word is, 'You never know.'" Joaquin Andujar
Skip
If that's the way that it shakes out for this year then fine, but long term there is no way that Skip has the bat to justify a regular LF spot. If he does well this year then we should be looking to move him to a team needs CF help.
I think it will be real close and maybe for the first 2 to 3 years Ank will be the better of the two.
"Why does he keep saying that?"
I'm beginning to wonder too
Red Blazer. From what I've seen so far I do believe that Ankiel is the best centerfielder.
Overflow thread suggestion?
I was reading BCB this morning; according to a note by Al, they "automatically" start an overflow thread at a certain time.
That could be something you want to consider here, if it's actually starting automagically.
I know I called Wainwright a "Poor Man's Carpenter"
Awhile back also noting Carp's better velo.
Oh and:
The pitch f/x data from last year has Ubaldo with a huge range in release points consistent with his bad minor league walk rates. Absolutely disgusting stuff but should be able to let him beat himself.
The key to yesterday's game offensively was letting Ubaldo Jimenez beat himself.
Toot toot. Though I think we didn't actually let him beat himself, we were still first pitch hacking more than I'd have liked to have seen against a guy that had no idea where it was going.....he was just kind enough to miss so badly we couldn't beat ourselves.
With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch
can't argue
with the results of your prediction, but I do question your logic. I am just starting to play with the pitch f/x stuff, and when looking at a few plots of release point data, I don't see any immediately apparent connection between walks and release point variation. For example compare Ubaldo to Wagonmaker:
http://baseball.bornbybits.com/plots/Ubaldo_Jimenez.html
http://baseball.bornbybits.com/plots/Adam_Wainwright.html
Not that big a difference.
Then look at yesterdays winning pitcher:
http://baseball.bornbybits.com/plots/Brad_Thompson.html
very tight pattern compared to either wagonmaker or ubaldo.
And compare to some pretty good pitchers:
http://baseball.bornbybits.com/plots/Carlos_Zambrano.html
http://baseball.bornbybits.com/plots/Brandon_Webb.html
http://baseball.bornbybits.com/plots/John_Smoltz.html
http://baseball.bornbybits.com/plots/Johan_Santana.html
all of whom have more variation in their release point than wonderbrad.
I know this is a small sample, but if you are aware of more rigorous analysis, I would like to read it.
Nothing more rigorous than poking around with that
#1. Regarding walk-rate, it's not necessarily causation there's other factors involved. Stuff/aggressiveness etc. Jimenez doesn't throw strikes, I'd venture to say having an inconsistent release point relative to a majority of the guys I've looked at contributes to that.
#2. Zambrano doesn't have great command. Z walks the most of the "pretty good pitchers". He has the loosest release point of them.
#3. Thompson does have very good command, that's not really a surprise his release is tight. That's why he's a major league pitcher because his stuff is so underwhelming. There's 25000 guys who can throw an 87 mph sinker, mediocre slider and mediocre change.
#4. There's a key difference between Ubaldo and the rest of those guys and that's how each individual pitch tends to break down. Look at the ridiculous variance between his fastball release points
#5. Just as importantly how it's spread totally randomly both vertically and horizontally in a nice circle.
Johan's "slant" tells me there's something intentional or at least controllable throwing to one side of the plate or the other.
Webb yeah overall it's a little loose but there's a tight little window for changeups/sliders and predictably the sinker comes in mostly a little lower than that (I'm going on the main cluster I don't believe the other "fuzz" was accurately read there unless he started throwing left handed that is). I haven't seen him enough to say he doesn't have awesome command but I do know he also can just pound the zone with the impossibly good sinker keeping the walks down.
Smoltz is tight vertically but spread horizontally (so still better than Ubaldo) but I really can't even make an apologists explanation otherwise.
Waino clusters his individual pitches and each of those seems to be tight horizontally and not vertically. He throws dead over the top? I dunno, but most players I've peeked at don't have the big ole circle of release points.
With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch
I'll say it much more simply
Find me a guy with high walk rates and a consistent release point then I'll shut up and say I was mostly using confirmation bias on the data because having seen him a few times last year I knew he had no command hahaha....
With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch
Thompson last night
Stole this from gameday. The blue dots are the Rockies hit's. The red dots are rockie outs. One out at thrid belongs to Villone and the two balls hit to Center belong to Ankiel.
The rest belong to Thompson. So only 3 balls hit to the right side of the field. I bring this up because when I saw it yesturday I thought...Man it would have been a scary to have started Uncle Rico at third, Miles at SS and Duncan in left.
Leach's write up indicates that Thompson has really been working on his offspeed pitches this spring. So hopefully his strike outs will be up this year. I dont expect 6 Ks from him every game. But it would be nice to see 3-4 a game. Being able to get those strike-outs when needed is something that can turn him into a good 4th-5th rotation guy.
My boy PJ took the loss last night for Springfield
going 5 innnings, giving up 8 hits, 2 ER and 5k.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Apr 4, 2008 11:03 AM EDT reply actions
Tidbits from Leach's preview of today's game
Looper was 7-4 with a 3.34 ERA at home last year, compared to an ugly 5-8, 6.81 on the road. On the other hand, he was also
much better in day games (7-1, 1.82) than at night (5-11, 6.75). ... Yadier Molina hit .288 with a .388 on-base percentage and a .423 slugging percentage against left-handers in 2007. ... The Cardinals have lost three straight series against the Nationals. ... The Cardinals are 2-1. They were over .500 only five times all year in 2007. They have a chance to be two games over .500 for the first time since the end of 2006.
Notice the bolded parts?
The last time we were 2 games over .500 was 2006? Wow, last year really was bad.
One pitch Thompson?
Not if he brings yesterday's slider to the mound with him. Where did that come from?
I wonder...
ya don't hear about pitchers doctoring the baseball much anymore... MLB's policy of throwing every freakin' ball out of play if it hits the dirt has pro'lly eliminated the "scuffball" artists; and the "pine-tar pitchers" (Kenny Rogers, Julian Tavarez) are trying to get a better grip on the ball when (legal) rosin ain't workin'...
But KY Jelly is still pretty much "invisible"... I'm not makin' any accusations here, I'm just sayin'! (It's more likely that WonderBrad has improved his slider with a different grip or more repetitions in the 'pen...)
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
by The Ol Goaler on Apr 4, 2008 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I have my own hunches as well.
I think I commented on this last season, but your comment really gets me thinking. I watch Franklin rub his pitching thumb on his cap bill before every pitch. I watch Wainer do the same thing. I just wonder what's under those cap bills sometimes. As a matter of fact, almost ALL of the Cards bullpen does that.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
Probably just a habit...
Besides, pitchers don't want the ball to "slip" from their thumbs... the thing that makes the "spitter" work is that the pitch is thrown just like a fastball, but the ball "tumbles" (has forward rotation) because of the slickness of the fingers.
The split-fingered fastball does the same thing, but is a legal pitch! Pitchers are allowed to use rosin to improve their grip. The only reason pine tar (which does the same thing as rosin, but is more effective in cold weather) is illegal is the fact that it's dark; hence, a pitcher using pine tar is "defacing" the baseball.
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
by The Ol Goaler on Apr 4, 2008 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Spitballs
Its true that pitchers don't want the ball slipping around in their grip, but the reason a spitball works isn't because of the release at all. It is because the foreign substance changes the aerodynamics of one part of the ball and makes it move unpredictably. Its the same basic idea as a curve ball (speed up the air flow on the underside of the ball because of seam rotation) only much less predictable and impossible for a batter to ID.
Early times yet...
...but the Cards' pitching has been awfully good (as opposed to just awful) first trip through the rotation. The Rox have a legitimately good offense; El Birdos held 'em to five freakin' runs in the three-game set! Holy mackerel!
I'd like to see Skip get a hit, just to take any pressure off; and Glaus will swing the bat better than he has so far... Ankiel looks better to my bespectacled eyes this year than he did even prior to his slump last season... more confident, and "surer" at the plate and in the field.
The key guy for the offense might prove to be (of all people) Yadier Molina... Kennedy should "progress to the mean", Miles will provide some OBP if not over-exposed, and Izturis is Izturis. If Yadi can provide some pop, at least opposing pitchers won't get to take an inning or two "off" when facing the bottom half of the Cards lineup.
Hope springs eternal (or at least 'till June...)
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
+1
The biggest improvement by Ankiel so far seems to be plate discipline and pitch recognition. He seems (very small sample size, obviously) to be doing a much better job of laying off the marginal pitches.
by ArkansasTravs on Apr 4, 2008 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Can't anyone remember last year?
the start pitching started off pretty good, too, then completely blew up a month into the season.
Anybody goin' to the game tonight?
Me and the lady got tix. Crossing my fingers for Barton in the line-up.
Rasmus or bust.
I'll be there.
I'm also looking forward to seeing Barton. Also looking forward to Looper surprising everyone (I can hope can't I?), seeing Ronnie Belliard play (I always liked him) and of course Albert's first bomb of the year that counts.
Awesome
I'll be in my JEd away WS jersey in dead center bleachers. Call me out if you see me or the other 400 fat guys in outdated player jerseys in the bleachers, guys--they'll be too drunk to know if you know who they are, anyway. Hollaaaaa!
Rasmus or bust.
ladies and gentlemen,
presenting the last remaining undefeated team in baseball: your 2008 kansas city royals.
/vomit
e'rebuilding mang
classic.
I miss ol' PECOTA in the new dugouts. He had such an epic battle at the end of the pre-Fanhouse run.
Wainer
Beyond that though, there's a less statistical reason that I'm a fan of Wainwright moving forward. He reminds me of Chris Carpenter.
I was just talking to "punchinjudy" the other day, and I made the same exact statement as "He reminds me of Chris Carpenter.". I said that his pre pitch stance, agression and what I see as determination, all reminded me of Carp. Lookin at the numbers, I see that my observations are with warrant.
C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!
I love the leadership role
he seems to be taking. Also love his quotes in this article: (by goold, of course)
"That's selling ourselves way short," said Wainwright, the stand-in ace on a staff rich with inexperience. "I don't think the goal should be to 'hold on' until they get here. What does that say about ourselves if that's the case? The goal should be for us to dominate."
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he'd drive down the street in his El Dorado
Totally off topic....
...but what's the deal with all the 8:15 EDT starts for home night games?
Hasn't it usually been 8:05 the past few years?
Forgive me, I live in Jersey so I probably did miss something. Just curious.
It's driving me nuts
I record the games and the extra 10 minutes eats up space on the DVR.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Apr 4, 2008 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Highway 64-40 is closed
they were talking about this on the radio before the home opener. There is a big chunk of freeway on highway 40. I take note cause I live in Columbia, MO. I always took 40 to get to Busch. I have to take I-70 all the way to the stadium now and it takes longer, especially for night games when I want to get there an hour before game time and hit some rush hour traffic.
Keeps Moving Back
Two years ago it was 7:05, last year 7:10, this year 7:15.
All about the advertising time, I guess.
C70 at the Bat
All these Carp comparisons are getting a bit scary.
I hope you guys are wrong about the Wagonmaker-Carp comparisons. I really don't want to endure 3 major surgeries on Adam in the next 8 yrs or so.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
I've always thought Wainwright pitched like Carp
Decent fastball with good location, good offspeed, and a plus curveball.
Noticed it first in the playoffs in '06.
Actually, Wainer reminds me more
of a young Matt Morris. I think it's that big curve that does it.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Apr 4, 2008 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
Same here, minus the huge backside.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Apr 4, 2008 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
LOL! Is that the opposite
of upside? =D
by MdRedbirdFreak on Apr 4, 2008 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know if it's even possible
for me to be a bigger fan of Wainwright, but if he starts coming to the plate to "Weekapaug Groove", I will be.
Well who the hell can see forever?
Tigers bullpen is awful...
i'm watching them play the white sox, and it's ugly. i'd say we should try to deal Springer or Franklin to them later in the season, if either player is pitching well, but I dont know what we'd want from them, they've already traded away all their prospects (outside of Porcello) this offseason.
...just a bit outside....
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Apr 4, 2008 3:30 PM EDT reply actions
Izzy...
would probably be a more likely fit for them...only if we're out of it, though IMO. Springer doesn't want to leave the STL area, and I think the team is willing to accept that. Franklin is on his way back down to earth, and probably won't have much trade value. I'm not sure how willing Izzy will be to leave.
Thanks for the highlight moments 15 and 27!!!
Izzy
If Izzy were to leave, you would think he would want to go to a contender and playing for Jim Leyland would have to be a plus for him. I also doubt he has any interest in returning to New York for either team there. I think Detroit would be a great fit for him ... if he had any interest in going and we were out of it.
rodney and zumaya are out
that's why their bullpen is bad. zumaya will probably miss half the season.
e'rebuilding mang
Anyone else
Really giddy to see Pujols hit against Perez tonight?
Well who the hell can see forever?
"Opposite week"
Don't count on it.
Royals 3-0
Tigers 0-3
Nats 3-0
Thompson 1-0
Wellemyer 1-0
Pujols vs. Perez = TBD
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 4, 2008 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Guess I don't check facts first
I shouldn't type before I check.
Nats 3-1. Sorry for the mispellings. Too reliant on "spell check".
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 4, 2008 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
It's exciting to see Thompson do well in his first start of the season. He got mucked about when he came up, being a fill-in guy. I think they owe a lot to him in some respects. I think that start will be a big confidence booster for him, and allows him to see where he can be more effective. Also, it's exciting to see that Reyes might be a wicked setup man for Isringhausen. Offense looks full of potential, and yeah, that outfield with Rasmus and Ankiel and Skip would be a huge asset. Anyone know how Barton's arm is?
On a different note, any Cards fans here in Chicago know of a good bar to hang out at to watch games? I know there are a bunch of us here but no home base...
Ankiel is Jesus!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 4, 2008 4:03 PM EDT reply actions
Wouldn't they burn it down?
If the cubbie fans knew of a Cards hangout in Chicago, I would think bricks and cocktails would be flying? j/k...... I hope.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 4, 2008 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Reyes
I know everyone was excited about Reyes's newfound velocity, but don't you guys realize that you are being a bit misled there?
Of COURSE ARey can throw 3 or 4 mph harder coming out of the 'pen. He doesn't have to worry about throwing 100 pitches, so he can really put all his effort behind it. I remember an All-Star game a couple of years ago when Brad Penny was throwing 98-99 in the first couple of innings. When he was asked about it, he said he could put a little more effort behind the pitches because he didn't have to worry about going into the 8th inning. The same holds true for most pitchers. If they are trying to throw starter-type innings, they just cannot throw as hard as they can from the get-go.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
anyone watching the Cubs game?
Soriano just whiffed on fielding a hit by Tejada, allowing a run to score and putting Tejada at 3rd...followed by a sac fly and they are losing 4-2!!!
I love it!!
Yeah, Barton leading off
Per Bernie, the lineup for tonight:
Barton 7
Ankiel 8
Pujols
Glaus
Ludwick 9
Molina
Izturis
Looper
Miles
That's acutally a pretty nice lineup
'cept #7-#9, Lot of thunder.
by cloistermaximus on Apr 4, 2008 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I like Izturis at 8
A lot of writers (and managers) seem to think batting the pitcher 8th means putting your worst position hitter 9th. Bat Izturis and the pitcher as far from Pujols as possible and good things will happen.
Barton is starting tonight in LF
and leading off
...just a bit outside....
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Apr 4, 2008 5:11 PM EDT reply actions
Probably out tonight
because Perez is a lefty...
"The only thing you know about pitching is that you can't hit it." Bob Gibson to Tim McCarver
by player2bnamedl8r on Apr 4, 2008 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Not a bad lineup
in all honesty.
You get a little bit of everything - speed, power, defense, and the greatest player on Earth.
Ok Skippy... you're starting. Now START HITTING!
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