Jose Martinez...

by NovaO on Apr 3, 2008 6:12 PM EDT Comment 8 comments

Hey guys, first let me introduce myself. My name is Alex Eisenberg and I run the website Baseball Intellect. At this site, I provide scouting reports and use both statistical and scouting methods to break down players. If I can, I use video of players to supplement my scouting reports.

I'll have some work published with Baseball Digest Daily and I had my first article published today for the Hardball Times.

Now, I wanted to provide you guys with a scouting report on an under the radar prospect in Jose Martinez. I did not have video on him, however. But I think you guys will find the information on him interesting.

I also exchanged e-mails back and forth with Larry, and he gave me some players that might interest readers here...Anthony Reyes is a guy that definitely piques my interest.

In any case, I hope you find the article a good read.

0 recs | Comment 8 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

I dunno

I see you're basically saying what everyone else is saying. "projects to be a backup", "doesn't wow you with his defense" etc. (though by simple fielding runs he seems to be pretty good...) Since most prospects fizzle, it's always safe to say those words, but I'd be a lot more interested if you said "this guy could be good" and then explained why. Or said "he's not gonna make it" and explained why. Saying "he projects to be a backup" is basically fence sitting, unless, of course, you have some rationale for HOW you decide how someone "projects". I've heard several people say "jose M projects to be a backup", and if you are just quoting them that's one thing (though you should hat tip if that's the case), but if you have a system for figuring it I'd love to hear about it. IE he projects to be a backup "because"... ?

It's also interesting that you questioned whether he could maintain his AA LD rate, which is high but not absurd, versus asking why his BABIP was so low GIVEN the LD rate and the decent ISO. Guys like Molina have low BABIPs despite high LD rates because they are slow, and guys like Izturis (I think) because they don't have the strength to hit HARD line drives, but if a guy has the strength to put up 10 HR in 250 AB, he's not an izturis, and I've seen him run; he's got decent speed. So he's either been very unlucky or the scorekeeper in memphis was mailing it in.

It might also be useful to your readers to link them to minorleaguesplits.com (or wherever you are getting the BABIP data)...

Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he'd drive down the street in his El Dorado

by SleepyCA on Apr 3, 2008 9:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re:

1. I referenced Future Redbirds at the bottom of the article as a lot of the information I found on Martinez came from the scouting reports on that site. I also e-mailed the person who runs the site to try to network with them, but I never heard back.

2. Under "advanced stats" (which is beneath "Jose Martinez") is the link to firstinning.com, which is where I got my statistical data.

As for your point of about the way I projected Martinez, I think it is fair to say I could of been bolder with my projection although the point of my articles is to give readers a fair and realistic interpretation of what these players project to become at their best and at their worst (or near worst).

I thought it was pretty well stated what my concerns were with Martinez...

1. He hasn't showed any plate discipline thus far in his career and he will rely almost solely on his ability to hit for average to maintain an acceptable on base percentage.

2. For LD% and BABIP, what I did was make a correlation with each figure, for better or worse...I say this because making the correlation between the two ignores a lot of other things in-between. The bigger point here is that his BABIP was .248 and .265 in low-A and A+ ball in 06/07. His LD% was 15 and 14 respectively. Despite having a LD% of 23, which would seem to be the outlier for him, he managed to put up a BABIP of just .301. We have to ask ourselves if what he did in AA just a fluke...

He is actually having trouble getting hits on ground balls and that is consistent at each minor league stop (i get this from Minor League Splits):

.213 BA in Springfield
.185 BA in Palm Beach
.184 BA in Springfield

Why is this? I can't really say as I don't have enough to go on. The bottom line, however, is that he is going to have to hit for a high batting average to give the Cardinals an acceptable on base percentage. This is why I project him at this moment to be more of an offensive minded utility player.

But compared to a lot of other prospects that are under the radar and outside of their organization's top-10 list, he looks like a legit sleeper to me.

He is young for his level, he makes consistent contact, and he has shown a little pop in his bat while playing acceptable defense at SS. I can see the potential there for a role as an everyday SS...but he has to improve either his plate discipline or BABIP.

www.baseball-intellect.com

by NovaO on Apr 4, 2008 4:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

thanks for the response

i didn't see the link to F-R earlier; it does looks like you tried. Still, and I'm sorry to be a jerk about it, but if you're going to use someone else's work as a basis for yours, (even if it's a minor source), you should link directly, and from the place in your piece that you use the ideas. IE "erik @ FR says"... and then link to the article that he said it in, not just a link to F-R in the fine print at the bottom that no one reads. It's more work, but your site looks like it has the potential to be seriously good, and that's how it should be done when you are writing at that kind of level.

Thanks for showing me that 1st inning has split data- I never realized it was there. Is that new?

Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he'd drive down the street in his El Dorado

by SleepyCA on Apr 4, 2008 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

fair enough

I will take that into consideration. Thanks for the response.

As for First Inning, I don't think they had splits when the site first started, but its had splits for a good while. I still use minor league splits to get a little more in-depth numbers...like the batted ball data, pitcher line drive rates, HR:FB, etc.

www.baseball-intellect.com

by NovaO on Apr 4, 2008 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Grammar Nazi time

piques*

by mojowo11 on Apr 4, 2008 1:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

thanks

fixed.

www.baseball-intellect.com

by NovaO on Apr 4, 2008 4:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Jose..

has quickly turned into my pet prospect. I live 20 miles from Springfield, so I get to see him play on occasion. He's starting at second this year...I could see him as a regular in the bigs there (he looked great offensively and defensively in th exhibition games with STL).

Also, as you said he is young...I think he could learn patience at the plate. That is probably the one skill that can be easily learned in baseball.

Thanks for the highlight moments 15 and 27!!!

by cardzfanbub on Apr 4, 2008 9:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs