Should Cards Re-Sign Lohse?

that idea during the telecast. With a nice year, he may just price himself out of St. Louis.

likely out of our pocketbook. I’d rather the Cards save the money and get a big name than spend little by little on bit players like Lohse.

BABIP is down, LOB% up, HR/FB% sits at 0. Somehow he actually isn’t throwing that many strikes and still having success. Obviously he’d have to regress a ways to keep him from still being a good major leaguer, but he’s not the results he’s had so far. No point in taking on a 40 mil risk on him continuing all this good stuff. Awesome on a one year deal, not so much on 4.

That’s why he signed a 1 year deal. If he does well, then he’s going to try to cash in again.

I really don’t think they could re-sign him, unless they give him the sort of deal he wanted (4 years, 40 million) but couldn’t get. And I don’t think he’s worth that much.

1. I doubt he continues this run of ridiculously good pitching.

2. If he does, he’s going to get a wad thrown at him by some silly GM, and therefore will price himself out of a team that has to be thinking quite seriously about getting ready to resign a certain Dominican-born, KC-raised first baseman.

Offer Lohse a solid 8/year and then provide incentives that if he performs well would put him well over the 10 mil/year mark. Is he not worth that as an innings eater who gives you quality starts?
Who are these Free Agents that the Cardinals would be looking at? Sabathia (will be way out of the price range and has worked a TON of innings so far in his career) Burnett (assuming he opts out of his contract (he has injury issues and will probably be seeking at least 15 mil/year) Who else would be available that would be better than what Lohse provides?

What I think AdjustedExpectations is hitting on briefly, is really where this conversation should be focusing it’s attention. Lohse does remember what this offseason was like, and though I’m sure he’s happy he’s got a gig and is starting off well, he wants his cash. He also is a major league baseball player and a starting pitcher nonetheless, so there’s a lot of pride and ego to come into factor. Not to mention the fact that he has Scotty EGO Boras giving him advice (albeit, it may be bad, but…). With all that being said, I think it’s naive to think he’ll give us a hometown discount. This isn’t Carpenter’s situation where a team signed him injured, worked with him for a season and a half, then he came to CY Young prowess, in order to sign a great deal for him and his family, but also a discounted one for the current market of MLB SPs. Mozeliak won’t be able to sit Lohse down without 4 years/40 mil that they wouldn’t give Soup, and so he’ll be forced to trade him. Approach Lohse all you like; i personally think he is a good thing for our rotation for a couple of years in the #4 hole plus/minus 1spot; but I don’t think it’s reasonable. He wants his cash, and why shouldn’t he get it. Since we’re the team that gives him the shot, we should be able to work that into an B/B+ level prospect and/or a young arm from a team that needs the experience. Either way, it must be said…it looks like one more feather in the young cap of Mozeliak. God, I love being a cardinal fan.

... if we’re gonna drop that kind of money ($10+mn/year) on a starter, then we should go all the way and get one of the aces. either that, or Lowe on a two year deal at $10-12 per.

but i wouldn’t even rush into that. next year we’re set with Carp, Wain, & Piniero. we’ll still have Thompson and Reyes, and i believe that we’ve still got an arb option on Wellemeyer (could be wrong tho). McClellan will likely be transitioned back to starting next year, and Boggs et al will all be a year closer and possibly ready for MLB action. plus the options for Clement and Mulder are only 1 year; not 4.

in other words, we’ve got plenty of #4 or #5 type starters in the system already. no need to spend that much money on another. save it for an impact SS or SP. it’s also likely that we’ll have some bullpen needs, since Izzy might be gone, and McClellan and/or Reyes are likely to be either in the rotation or off the team. and if we really need another starter, there’s a decent chance that somebody like Lohse/Weaver/Colon will be available next year for cheap.

so the money can be better used elsewhere.

Carpenter
Wainwright
Loshe
Piniero
prospect?

that wouldnt be terrible. I think if he pitches well enough for us o afford him we wont want him back though ;-)

plus the team seems infatuated with making something out of Welly

unless Carp/Mulder/Clement all are either ineffective or injured to some extent. I think Carp will be fine based on the historical performances of TJ pitchers post-operative, but Mulder and Clement worry me.

Still, if Lohse is open to returning, I don’t see the Cards doing a CArp deal for him, and he ain’t staying for under $10 mil/year—that seems to be the going rate for a pitcher. Would guys like Sabathis come cheaper? Doubtful.

So that means sign Lohse as a 3/4 starter at Carp money, spend Monopoly money on CC or someone like him, or trade Lohse near the deadline (assuming he has decent value based on current stats) for an impact bat and let one of the kids come up and see how they can do.

Best option, IMO, would be to re-sign Kyle at 3/30, or 2/20 w/club option, but I think that Mo will move him if he can get value for him.

i would be much happier if we went after him with sabathia-type money than any of the others on that list.

we need to wait until the trade deadline…see where we are then…if we are in contention, then talk to him about a 2-3 year extension at no more than 8 mil a year…this guy is a solid number 3, and should be paid like that(what i’m saying is 4/40 is too much).

if we aren’t in contention, then we need to flip him for a couple of middling prospects or one really solid prospect(not an outfielder though)...i’m sure a team like the phillies or mets would pay a high price for loshe if he continues to pitch near this level(if they are in contention)

problem is, i think that by definition we will be in contention because of the weakness of the division…every contender in the central has holes….i just hope we see if we are in fool’s gold contention

no way we sign a acey free agent pitcher this offseason…they cost way to much, and ususally are busts(zito, schmidt, et al)

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2002/02/2008-09-free-agents.html

The players with * by their names have options for ‘09.

I don’t see anyone who is better than Lohse that would cost less than 10 mil/year on that list. Jon Garland may be the only one.

but as said above, I do think he’d likely turn it down in hopes to rake in more (Suppan money, say) in the off-season.

However, as I’ve said at least once before, I think of the three FA starters, the one we could likely get for the least money now is Wellemeyer. I do think that if we threw out 1.5M, 1.75M now, he might bite. No way Looper or Lohse would go for anything that low. And if the Colonel improves dramatically, he will become rapidly more expensive. Every win he gets, the more we’ll have to pay to keep him.

If we offer him small money now, and he goes in the toilet or gets injured, then we’ve lost little. If he gets to where we think he might, and becomes a credible #5, then we’ve saved a TON of money. If he comes back to earth and remains a credible middle reliever, then we’re paying decent money for an OK reliever. It’s a risk this early in the season, but a decent risk.