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Drafting Pitchers for Longevity

I looked back at the top 25 active pitchers in wins.  I know wins is a statistic influenced by a lot of factors, including the strength of the team, ballpark factors, and luck.  One thing that wins does suggest is longevity.  You don't get to 100 wins in two seasons.  The people on the list have managed to stay in the majors for an extended period of time, which is a testament to their success.  When the next hot prospect is always a phone call away, every major leaguer has to perform at a high level in order to stay in the league long enough to get on this leader board. 

After seeing who was in the top 25, I focused on a couple of things: their draft position, handedness, and whether they were drafted out of high school or college.  I also classified them loosely as power or finesse pitchers, without a real criteria for this besides my own perception.  I ignored body type and mechanics - mainly because I feel like mechanics is a matter that should be discussed by an expert (if ex-HS players are experts, then I'm one, too), and mechanics is an inexact and evolving science. 

Before I type the list, here are some of my findings.  Of the 25 active leaders: 3 were first round picks, 6 were second round picks,  4 were undrafted FAs, 7 were from rounds 5-10, and 5 were from rounds 11-40.  9 were drafted out of HS, 12 were drafted out of college (2 JUCO), the four undrafted FA were from Latin America and some were signed before 18 so I left them out of the HS/College class but they could, for the most part be considered of HS age and experience when drafted.  7 of the 25 were LH and 18 were RH.  Based on my extremely loose classifications of Power and Finesse, 13 were power and 12 were finesse.  I thought about setting a minimum K/9, but was ready to quit.

Without further ado, here's the list:

1.  Roger Clemens, 354 W, 1st round (19th overall), BoSox (College)

2.  Greg Maddux, 349 W, 2nd, ChC (HS)

3.  Tom Glavine, 303, 2nd, AtL (HS)

4.  Randy Johnson, 284, 2nd Montreal (C)

5.  Mike Mussina, 252, 1st (20th overall) Baltimore (C)

6.  David Wells, 239 W, 2nd Toronto (HS)

7.  Jamie Moyer, 230, 6th by ChC (College)

8.  Curt Schilling, 216, 2nd by BoSox (C)

9.  Kenny Rogers, 210, 39th by Rangers (HS)

9.  John Smoltz, 210 22nd by Detroit (HS)

10.  Pedro Martinez, 209, undrafted FA signed by LAD

11.  Andy Pettitte, 203, 22nd by NYY (C)

12.  Tim Wakefield, 169, 8th by Pitt (C)

13.  Aaron Sele, 148, 1st by BoSox (College)

14.  Bartolo Colon, 146, undrafted FA signed by Cleveland

15.  Steve Trachsel, 142, 8th by ChC (C)

16.  Mike Hampton, 138, 6th by Seattle (HS)

16.  Tim Hudson, 138, 6th by Oakland (College)

17.  Livan Hernandez, 137, undrafted FA signed by FLA

18.  Tom Gordon, 134, 6th by KC (HS)

18.  Kevin Millwood, 134, 11th by AtL (HS)

19.  Woody Williams, 132, 28th by Toronto (C)

20.  John Lieber, 131, 2nd by KC (C)

21.  Jason Schmidt, 128, 8th by AtL (HS)

22.  Esteban Loaiza, 126, undrafted FA by Pitt

That's the top 25.  Some notes.  Some of the pitchers are arguably inactive, such as Woody, Clemens, Wells, etc.  I did this was last season being the cutoff.  The Cubs have the most players on this list with 3.  There are definitely some interesting names on this list (Steve Trachsel has won games?).  A couple of guys who spent several years as relievers (Smoltz, Gordon), a couple who have had their careers derailed by injuries (Hampton, recently Schmidt), but for the most part, these are guys who have been effective for a long time.  I thought it was very interesting that only 3 guys were first round picks. 

Notable Cardinals and former Cards in the wins dept. - Morris has 121 wins, Suppan has 119, Mulder has 103, and Carp has 100. 

I also did this with 5 of the top current "aces." Johan Santana undrafted FA by Houston, Peavy was a 15th rounder out of HS by SD, Dedard was a 6th rounder out of college, Sabathia was a 1st rounder out of HS and Webb was an 8th rounder out of college by AZ. 

I'm not sure this proves anything, but it reaffirms what a crapshoot the draft can be.  I also think that this is the point you can judge the quality of some yester-year drafts.  If the Cards passed on a guy like Joba Chamberlain b/c of injury concerns, we won't know for a while (maybe years), whether they were right.  Only time will tell.  I think a pick is a success if he makes it to the major leagues.  If he pitches for a long time, he is a great success.

If it seems there is interest in this, I might try to do something similar with hitters.  Thanks for reading!

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Those names are interesting.......

Pedro Martinez always sticks out with me….a large majority of scouts felt he was too small to ever make it, and looky here-he lasted, and was really good until his 2007 season. And he spent about half of his career on really bad teams in LA and Montreal, and Boston was just starting to turn it around during his time there-and he was a big part of their turn around. Check his peripheral stats-he had a 10 year run that was better than just about anyone pitching in the last 75 years or so. And it wouldn’t surprise me if he keeps it up as a finesse pitcher for a few more years-not like his glory days, but still an above average pitcher.

Tom Gordon and Arron Sele’s name were a surprise-but there’s your longevity for you.

It’s definitely a crap shoot, and I think it’s a good idea to have a mix of good college and good high school arms in your farm system.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Apr 25, 2008 6:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

well said

by both, good read. Just goes to show you about everyone getting wrapped up about what position they get drafted at, or what round there taken at, goes to show it don’t matter. And kudos on the info about pedro, I looked his stats up the other day, and he only has one year were his era is above 4 since hes been around.

by from First to Third on Apr 25, 2008 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He is, to me, the empitome of the finest eff-u pitcher since Bob Gibson's glory days.

I have always loved Pedro-especially because hardly anyone believed in him.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Apr 26, 2008 1:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pedro

I like Pedro, too. He seems like a cool guy. Little right hander with a great change up and a ton of confidence. I classified him as a power pitcher, but I think he can make the transition to not having quite as much stuff and still get people out. The Mets really need him to be a great team. Hopefully he pitches crappy against us;)

by Toddius on Apr 26, 2008 2:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think he's going to still be useful for the Mets.

He doesn’t have to be the ace, he just has to keep them in the game. Even when he was a power pitcher, he was crafty and deft with his pitch patterns, so he should be able to work with whatever he has left just fine.

And the word is “epitome” not “empitome” I’m horrifed by all of my spelling errors.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Apr 26, 2008 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I made

a ton of errors in my post, too. I was embarrassed about that. C’est la vie.

by Toddius on Apr 26, 2008 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

I agree about having a mix of high school and college arms. Part of what inspired me to write this was seeing Tim Melville go to the Cards at 13 in a couple mock drafts, and I started wondering where a lot of the best pitchers got drafted. I’m glad there are people who know what they’re doing making those decisions.

by Toddius on Apr 25, 2008 9:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd much rather see us pick him up than crow

everyone keeps brining up crows mechanics, and his little jerk at the backwards part of his motion scares me a little

by from First to Third on Apr 25, 2008 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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