Who'll bring Albert home? Huh?
by Urban Pawnee
on Apr 25, 2008 11:55 AM EDT
A quick riff on some numbers here ...
With Albert's 5-for-5 OB performance thursday night, we've seen his OBP reach the giddy/gaudy heights of .525 – in a word; Bonds-ian! The walks, intentional and otherwise, are piling up, along with the hits requisite of a .377 BA. But then I noticed that he didn't score one run in that game. Huh? Looking a little more closely at the young season, he's scored 14 runs, which places him in a massive tie for 23rd place in the NL. 14 runs to show for 55 times on base (30 hits/23bb/2hbp). That computes to him scoring 25.5% of the times he gets on base. Didn't sound too impressive to me. So, I checked into this arcane stat for his career (runs divided by total times on base).
'01 - 41.2%
'02 - 44.3%
'03 - 45.5%
'04 - 46.3%
'05 - 42.9%
'06 - 43.6%
'07 - 34.0%
'08 - 25.5% (24 games)
What I'm doing here is using Albert as one, isolated indicator of team offensive efficiency. He's always gotten on base, and will continue, with a career OBP of about .420. He's always driven runs in, we know that. How efficiently does the rest of the team respond to him being on base? Specifically those #4-5 hitters. During the Golden Years ('01-'06), with a more-or-less healthy tandem of Rolen/Edmonds hitting behind him (yeah, there were others too, but I won't mention all of the musical chairs participants in the interest of brevity), Pujols scored between 41-46% time he got on base. That's a lot of runs. Last year that all went to hell due to the age/injuries/poor performance of anyone who hit behind Albert - to the tune of 34% run efficiency. This season it's gotten even worse (no names, please), with a noticable tendency of opponents pitching around him early and often. He's admitted to frustration and enlarged his strike zone on occasion. After a 7-1 start, the team has slipped (stumbled) into a more mediocre pattern caused, in part, by their inability to plate runners. Albert's 26.4% scoring percentage is testament. Whether it's Glaus, Ankiel, Ludwick, Duncan, (or a player to be named later), the team really needs some thunder behind AP.
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It doesn't matter who we put in the 4th spot
They all seem to suck there. Glaus, Ankiel, Duncan. Who ever we put there immeditly starts sucking. Example: Ludwick. The hotest bat on the Cardinals. Put him in the 4th spot. Boom. Instance slump. 1 for 8 with three walks in the last 3 days.
by Evilfrog on Apr 25, 2008 12:07 PM EDT 0 recs
I find it interesting
how people who use the term “Bondsian” to describe Albert this year talk about protecting him in the lineup without bringing up Bonds as a solution to that problem.
He is out there, his only cost to us would be cash, he is a massive upgrade over Chris Duncan (who I actually like), and he could turn our questionably hot start into being completely legit. Add a talented Rasmus in center, some solid pitching…..we could make some noise.
Who cares if he is a dick? Free Bonds!
"I believe he’s been reincarnated, that he played before, in the twenties and thirties, and he’s back to prove something." - Former teammate Mark McGwire about Albert Pujols
by cardzfan24 on Apr 25, 2008 1:13 PM EDT 0 recs
I hate to agree with that
but I see our offensive woes continuing unti Mo listens to tony, they pick him up and finally get some protection, or the ever elusive “IMPACT BAT” sorry for caps, I am just stiffled this is still used, and we have not picked one up since walker.
by from First to Third on
Apr 25, 2008 1:31 PM EDT
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I still say
Khalil Greene. He’ll be not only an improvement in terms of a hitting SS, but he’s got a pretty damn fine glove as well. Plus, they’ve got Headley in the minors. Greene has been on their block for a couple years now.
On with the (good) youth movement!
by aet15 on
Apr 25, 2008 11:11 PM EDT
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golly
if K. Greene is ‘available’ (I hadn’t heard this before), what are we waiting for? We could re-stock the Pads infield, offering them their choice of any FOUR players from a pool of Izturis, Kennedy, Miles and Ryan.
by the Tewk on
Apr 27, 2008 1:27 AM EDT
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haha
well, available for a proper price. And I think in order to make it worth our while, we’d need to lock him up after trading for him.
Knowing the Padres, I’m sure they’d be more interested in outfield and pitching . . . which we have a surplus of in both category. We’re going to need to get rid of an outfielder (if we want to bring up Rasmus) and a pitcher or two (if we want Clement, Mulder, and Carp to come back) anyway, so we might as well upgrade our weakest position while we’re at it.
I’d have no problem with us simply DFAing Izturis to make room.
On with the (good) youth movement!
by aet15 on
Apr 27, 2008 3:23 AM EDT
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Solid points
But I have a feeling Ryan would be out before Iz2.
Rasmus or bust.
by Zoop on
Apr 28, 2008 6:06 PM EDT
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You are exactly right
I’ve been harping for this all off-season and through 23 games. It’s beginning to get a little ridiculous right now.
Don't judge me!!!
by BigdJC on
Apr 25, 2008 3:27 PM EDT
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Bonds is on the shelf where he needs to be. Just say NO Mo! Get people onbase in front of El Hombre’ and a lot of stuff will change for the 4 and 5 slots. We need a bat in the 6-9 spots.
by cardschinmusic on
Apr 26, 2008 5:42 AM EDT
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Who better to get on base
in front of Hombre than the master of the walk?
"I believe he’s been reincarnated, that he played before, in the twenties and thirties, and he’s back to prove something." - Former teammate Mark McGwire about Albert Pujols
by cardzfan24 on
Apr 26, 2008 12:19 PM EDT
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glaus/duncan/ludwick
i’m still not read to write off glaus and duncan. they are both below their career numbers with RISP. duncan has a whopping three at bats at #4 this year. glaus has just 26 at bats there this year. give them some time, and i think they will produce more in tune with their career numbers. bat glaus #4 vs. lefties and move him back to #5 vs. a righty. bat duncan #4 vs. righties. mix in ludwick as needed (890 OPS in 19 at bats at #4 this year).
by dmb60614 on Apr 25, 2008 2:40 PM EDT 0 recs
Albert
Who’ll bring Albert home? Albert!
Seriously, the best way to “protect” Pujols is to have runners on base in front of him.
There are very few guys in the league who would make a pitcher less likely to walk Albert these days. If it’s not Manny, Miggy, Papi, ARod or someone of that ilk, pitchers and opposing coaches still won’t take chances with Albert.
The best way to protect him is to force the issue. Pitchers/opposing managers will be less likely to put him on base if there’s already 2 guys on. Or, sometimes late in the game, even one guy on.
The best way to “protect” him, IMO, is to upgrade the bats in front of him. Colby Rasmus will probably be just what the doctor ordered by next year.
Of course, a better bat behind him would generate more runs. I’m not saying different. But, there’s really no way the Cardinals can put someone behind him that would be feared enough pitchers will stop pitching around him (except Bonds). None of the other guys are up for grabs.
by RedbirdRay on Apr 25, 2008 4:00 PM EDT 0 recs
Word
"I believe he’s been reincarnated, that he played before, in the twenties and thirties, and he’s back to prove something." - Former teammate Mark McGwire about Albert Pujols
by cardzfan24 on
Apr 25, 2008 4:21 PM EDT
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I wonder what some
of the stats are for the other teams #4 hitter is? I’m sure there a lot better of any platoon that larussa throws up there. We need someone not even of the top player caliber, just a reasonably good rbi even from the second teir of hitters out there. Pitchers will not always confine to the pitch to/not pitch to thing to albert, there going to challenge him, but we absolutely need someone more proven to be a “clutch” hitter
by from First to Third on Apr 25, 2008 6:19 PM EDT 0 recs
cascade effect
as was discussed in the game thread last night and in the main post this morning, it’s possible the biggest problem isn’t the 4 spot or de 1-2 spots, but the 6-9 spots, specially the lack of offensive power by the middle infield.
anybody in the 4-5 spots will be pitched very carefullly because after the 5-spot the pitcher can shift to cruise control. in this vision, to solidify the line up, some upgrading of one or more of the 6-9 spots is necessary.
Imagine the Cardinals winning it all in 2008
by Johnny64 on Apr 25, 2008 7:25 PM EDT 0 recs
Like a better 2nd basemen with more bat skills?
by from First to Third on
Apr 25, 2008 8:01 PM EDT
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exactly !
or like a SS or like a C with more power
Imagine the Cardinals winning it all in 2008
by Johnny64 on
Apr 26, 2008 12:32 PM EDT
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This is probably sacrilege
This is a really good post. I think there is a lot to what you are saying, so this is nitpicking, but Albert’s baserunning has really regressed.
He runs himself into outs quite a bit more now than the average guy now. I used to think Albert was a plus basrunner. Now I think he has gone overly aggressive to the point he it’s a detriment.
Now maybe this is because of what you are suggesting. Maybe he knows he needs to force the issue. I know runs scored are a big goal for him every year. I also think he forces it now.
Still that can not explain all of a drop to that extent, but it may be one of many factors.
by Merry CRasmus on Apr 25, 2008 8:05 PM EDT 0 recs
Glaus and Ankiel
I’d like to see Glaus at cleanup most of the time. doubles will get runs home just as easily as homeruns, especially if people are on base all the time. Ankiel can be the secondary cleanup hitter, depending on what type of streak he’s on and matchups.
Ankiel is Jesus!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 2, 2008 1:04 AM EDT 0 recs
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