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So, Let's Play GM

This is my first fanpost, so I hope you guys find some interest in the topic. 

With the news on Mulder today, and with Springer traveling with the team on this road trip, the Cardinals are going to have to make some tough decisions soon.  If you guys/gals could put on your GM hat for the next two months, I'm wondering how you would resolve the issues facing Mozeliak.  Here are the issues, as I see them.

We have been fortunate that our pitching has been performing at, or above, the expectations.  This makes it particularly difficult to handle the surplus of 4 and 5 starters and RH middle relief.  These guys are difficult to trade, especially early in the season; and too many of them are without additional options.  If only a few of them had flopped, then the decision would be more clear cut. 

Instead, the Cardinals are faced with having Wainwright, Lohse, Looper, Wellemeyer, Pineiro, Thompson, Mulder, Clement, and (cringe for the aftermath) Reyes as starting options.  Carpenter will be an option later in the summer, but I believe that his time-table is too far off to join in this dicussion, as there is enough time to make an hole for him.  So, I'm going to take him off of the table for now.  Wainwright and Lohse are the only two starters with enough track record to justify calling them untouchable, so that leaves us with three spots for seven potential starters.  Then, you have Isringhausen, Franklin, Springer, Thompson, Wellemeyer, McClellan, Reyes, Looper, Pineiro, and Clement as options for RHP out of the bullpen; and Villone, Flores, and Johnson as options for LHP.  Obviously, I'm just talking about current major league options; and, as the table seems to be plenty full, I'm going to leave out the Motte, Perez, Worrell, et al. options.  Isringhausen is the only untouchable on the relief list, IMO; so that leaves us with nine options for four RHP spots, and three options for two LHP spots.  (I guess potentially we could go with three LHP and four RHP, but that doesn't make anything easier.)

Only Reyes, Thompson, McClellan, and Johnson have options remaining; and we now have 13 guys that we can mix and match to fill 9 spots.  It looks like Johnson is probably still a little ways off, and we're still not sure about Clement; but there is a potential that both could be available before June 1. 

So, how would you go about resolving this?  Let's take out what we think LaRussa or Duncan would advocate, so as not to start any "they hate Reyes" discussions, please.  I am asking more what you would do, not what you think they would do.  I also think it will be extremely difficult to get any kind of value on the trade market before late May or early June, so that is an additional factor that will handcuff you as a GM.

I'm going to initially reserve my thoughts, so as to not sway the discussion at the beginning.  I would like to see who thinks that one should option down the young guys to make room for the returning veterans makes the most sense, in order to make an informed decision before making moves this summer; and who thinks that one should cut loose the older talent in order to make room for the burgeoning younger talent.  Do the standings have an impact on your decision?  Are you willing to give away players without getting full value, or does the value of younger players developing in the major leagues outweigh the lost value?

Thanks for your time, and I look forward to the discussion.

 

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This early, as much as i hate to say it

I would have to go with sending out the ones with options, but I would keep them on a short leach, and if any of the older ones faulters any I’d be looking to move him or waiver. I think Villone might be the first to go, but in reality he hasn’t looked bad.

Might see a package deal before June with a veteran and a prospect imoved.

by ridgesee on Apr 20, 2008 10:38 PM EDT   0 recs

Do you think that market will be active?

It seems to me that there are seldom any significant moves made before June? That would clearly alter my premise above, and it would provide an additional release outlet. Who would you look to send out?

by etp_stl on Apr 21, 2008 12:27 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

it does challenge the old belief

that you can never have ‘too much’ pitching. You present the dilemma well.

But since you asked what we would prefer… with me the determining factor would be youth, youth, youth. Because I am all about building for ‘09 (even if that appears to compromise competing in ‘08 {and I don’t believe it does anyway})
Thus, for me, people like Villone, Franklin, Springer, Looper and Clement would be on the bubble.

And tho’ you precluded it as an option, my radical proposal is to move Izzy and find another closer (Reyes?, Perez?) sooner rather than later. I know this is a minority opinion, but even tho’ I like and admire Jason I., I don’t trust him anymore. I have this on-going quake that he will fink the ‘08 season the way he did in ‘06. And if he is still our closer in ‘09, I will not be happy.

by the Tewk on Apr 20, 2008 11:10 PM EDT   0 recs

I only precluded it with Izzy, ...

because many will point out that he is a 5 & 10 guy. That makes moving him extremely difficult. I also believe he is the only veteran reliever that is performing to his past track record. Franklin worries me, and I wonder when Springer will hit the age wall.

That said, all is fair game; so I like thinking outside of the box.

by etp_stl on Apr 20, 2008 11:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That could be hard

I don’t think Izzy is going anywhere unless he wants to, and I don’t think he’ll want to unless the Cards are way out of it at the break and another competitor (I’m looking at the Indians, for example) needs a bonafide guy at the back of their pen. But since I don’t anticipate the Cardinals will be THAT far out of it at the break, I think Izzy is staying. I agree that he would be the chip to move.

I figure we should get rid of Villone. We know that Tony wouldn’t like having one lefty in the pen, but worse things have happened.

I don’t know. It it a pickle.

by mojowo11 on Apr 21, 2008 12:15 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Same feeling on Izzy

I agree on Izzy. Everyone likes him, IMHO, as a very likable player. But he does have trade value if only he would say yes. The reason I dislike his performance is that I think he plays with fire too often. His stats are not bad, but he has very few uneventful saves. And when the heat is on say in Sept., that’s when it’s bad to have folks on base in the ninth.

born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red

by totalloser on Apr 23, 2008 1:31 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm not sure...

Why a lot of people hate on Izzy. He was great last year coming off his injury plagued (and horrible) 2006. He hasn’t done much this year to suggest that he is going to revert back to that 2006 form either. Sure has has blown one save… but his K/9 and BB/9 stats are strong and no where near they were in 2006 (His K/9 right now is 9.0 and his K/BB sits at 4).

by BigMac545 on Apr 21, 2008 12:10 AM EDT   0 recs

I don’t think anyone is down on Izzy. I think it comes down to the fact he’s the only player of any trade value that isn’t part of our future. I highly doubt we’re see him resigned with Perez looking like he’s found his control.

by maurerdj on Apr 21, 2008 8:36 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No hate

I don’t think hate is the right word to describe my feeling. I like Izzy a lot, and I agree that 2006 is all about injury. But even in a good year last year, his stats are good but not great. In other words, he has trade value but he is not irreplaceable. His stats in 2007 of 2.48 ERA, 1.91 K/BB, 3.72 FIP, 7.44 K/9, and 3.86 BB/9 are around approximately the top third of closers. I think I can suggest pretty easily 7-8 closers that are better. But it’s not like I am upset that Izzy is the closer, don’t get me wrong.

born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red

by totalloser on Apr 23, 2008 1:48 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

middle infield help

Someone has suggested trading for Zobrist of the Rays or Lowrie of the Red Sox. I’d love to package our catching prospect plus a pitcher for either of them… or one of the Angels’ middle infield prospects.

And I don’t want to be down on Looper, but I’d suggest we get what we can for him. Remember the Bottenfield for Edmonds deal? Looper plus a prospect for a future hall of famer? (I can dream!)

by Cardinal Rush on Apr 21, 2008 2:15 PM EDT   0 recs

Springer Activated

And Uncle Rico sent down…

Who would have thunk it?

by Evilfrog on Apr 21, 2008 5:11 PM EDT   0 recs

Wow.

I have to say I didn’t see that coming. I hope Santa holds up. That has to indicate that Ryan will be coming back soon, doesn’t it?

Probably just delaying the inevitable for Thompson, then, huh?

by etp_stl on Apr 21, 2008 5:21 PM EDT   0 recs

Well, one question they should ask is if

Kyle McClellan fits into the future as a starter or a reliever. If it’s a starter, go ahead and send him to Memphis to start.
Next is Looper. Does he have any trade value? He didn’t look all that good in the spring, and righthanders-we’ve got ‘em here and in Memphis. Pineiro? Did we buy high there? Did we buy too long? I don’t care how many ground balls you get, you cannot survive long in the majors with a K rate of 0 Per ten innings. If he gets a nice run going, I’d get him out of here.
It’s all well and good to get excited about Mulder, but if he isn’t missing bats in AA after a few more starts, well, he’s going to have problems in the ML. So they better think long and hard before they let loose someon like Thompson or Reyes.

Or, they should throw Springer right away, and if he doesn’t seem ready, he goes right back on the DL.

If Lohse has a good season, he’s going to be lining up for a monster contract. If we’re out, so is he. Before the deadline.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Apr 21, 2008 9:59 PM EDT   0 recs

OK.

So, it seems like the majority of people believe that we are still committed to youth; but we should be looking to get value for the commodities we have. I agree whole-heartedly.

Here’s my take. My biggest concern is not getting value for the current team assets, and I’m worried about trade value this early in the season. It was an interesting diversion to send down Washington in order to bring Springer back, but that simply delays the inevitable decision that will need to be made when Ryan comes back up.

Now, Strauss wrote today that it seems as though Thompson and Reyes are both garnering some interest throughout the league right now. As the GM, I wouldn’t consider too many guys to be untouchable; so if I think Reyes is my best trade chip to get a significant upgrade at the MIF positions (specifically at SS) I would pull the trigger. That said, I wouldn’t get backed into a corner to just get rid of him while I still have options.

I would prefer to find a way to move some of the older, still productive, veteran pitchers (Looper, Pineiro, Franklin, and later Lohse or Mulder). I think that market probably won’t open up until closer to the deadline. I also don’t want to move guys until I know what I have in Clement, Mulder, Pineiro, and (to a lesser extent) Carpenter.

So, while I know it would be unpopular with some, I would prefer to option Thompson, McClellan, and/or Reyes in order to make room for these returning pitchers. I think you need to give these guys enough of an opportunity to find out what you have. I don’t necessarily mean for retaining long term, but maybe decide whether they are tradeable or should be released. Incidentally, that is why I would look to option Reyes last, as I believe the kid needs time against major league hitters.

Well, let me know what you think? Thanks.

by etp_stl on Apr 21, 2008 11:21 PM EDT   0 recs

Mo knows about the pitching glut . . .

From the P-D site:

MULDER NOT CLOSE

The Cardinals originally thought lefthanded starter Mark Mulder would return to the active roster after three rehab starts.

That timetable apparently is no longer in force.

General manager John Mozeliak said it is possible Mulder will remain on his current rehab assignment for the maximum 30 days while La Russa suggested he might get “10 starts” before facing major-league bats.

“I don’t even put them in the same category. I’m done explaining it,” La Russa said when a question compared Pineiro and Mulder. “Mark is going to come up when he’s ready to go. He needs to come up not in a process of rehabbing, but ready to pitch like the Mark Mulder of old to the best of his ability. Whatever it takes. There’s potentially too much good there.”

Mozeliak said: “If you look at it, the best way to approach it is probably to be conservative. I would say it’s going in the direction it’s supposed to be. He feels good, but he still has room for improvement.”

by tom s. on Apr 22, 2008 7:22 AM EDT   0 recs

looking around

I think it’s hard to disagree that the biggest need is to upgrade the MI spots. There aren’t very many teams that would be logical trade partners (i.e. MIs to spare, need OF/P and/or C prospect). Here’s a very rudimentary list that I’ve found:

1) Boston – Jed Lowrie. Bryan Anderson might be useful to groom as a replacement for Varitek.
2) Cleveland – Josh Barfield. They need help in the pen and OF.
3) LA/Anaheim – Erick Aybar/Brandon Wood. I know, Wood’s probably out of reach, but Aybar could be interesting. Would Duncan + a P be enough for him?
4) Atlanta – Brent Lillibridge. Their pen is brutal.
5) Cincinnati – Ryan Freel. He can play 2B and would be a TLR favorite instantly. He’s a bit injury-prone, but he’s stuck behind too many other players. Would they trade within the division?
6) LA Dodgers – Chin Lung Hu. Lboros has written about him before. The question is if they would be interested in what we offer.
7) Colorado – Clint Barmes. This ship may have already sailed. Nix isn’t hitting at all and Barmes may take the job.

IMO, Atlanta & Cleveland seem like the most likely to deal, given their needs. Lillibridge at SS and Ryan at 2B when he comes back would be an interesting MI.

Personally, I think we got hosed on that call.

by TurdFerguson on Apr 22, 2008 10:08 AM EDT   0 recs

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